Denver
Broncos
DEN
Last 5 ATS
W/L2-1
ATS2-1
O/U1-2-0
FINAL SCORE
10
-
31
Kansas City
Chiefs
KC
Last 5 ATS
W/L3-0
ATS2-1
O/U1-2-0
Last 5 ATS
2-1
Win /Loss
3-0
2-1
Spread
2-1
1-2-0
Over / Under
1-2-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Walker rushed 22 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns while catching his only target for two yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Thornton exited Sunday's game agains the Raiders with a left ankle injury and will not return.
Bryant (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the 49ers, Chris Tomasson of The Denver Gazette reports.
Surtain (ankle) won't return to Sunday's game against San Francisco, Chris Tomasson of The Denver Gazette reports.
Bryant (leg) was carted off the field in the third quarter of Sunday's contest against the 49ers, Jennifer Lee Chan of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Moss (ribs) won't return to Sunday's game against the 49ers, Chris Tomasson of The Denver Gazette reports.
Moss (ribs) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against San Francisco, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports
Surtain (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the 49ers, Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports.
Rice (hamstring) is doubtful to return to Sunday's contest in Las Vegas.
Surtain (knee) exited Sunday's game against the 49ers, James Palmer of Bleacher Report reports
While it’s possible the Andy Reid – Patrick Mahomes Chiefs are cooked, it’s tough to believe a team that won at a .800 clip forgot how to play. That happened in 2025, and it cost us dearly. Call it a sickness; I can’t quit Kansas City. Not yet. Not when Patrick Mahomes is under an FG at home in primetime. Kenneth Walker III is KC’s best RB of this era, and the WRs are all active for the first time in forever with Eric Bieniemy back. LT is a legitimate concern, but Reid is terrific with extra prep: 6-2 in openers with Mahomes. The Broncos have upgraded with Jaylen Waddle, but the defenses wash, Denver is on the road, and the line has been halved.
Week 1 is always challenging to figure out game scripts and how teams are going to approach their superstars and Rashee Rice is no different. For me I don't see a big explosive being part of his arsenal tonight as I expect KC's gameplan to be letting him operate underneath in possession and have the burners stretch the field on the boundary. I see this price being a touch too high and offers the best edge on a pretty thin MNF prop card
Monday mystery: How can a team that finished eight games ahead of its opponent receive nearly a field goal? K.C. QB Patrick Mahomes missed the tail end of the season with a knee ailment, but the Chiefs went 6-8 with him starting. He has been dealt an undesirable re-entry game. The Bronco defense topped the league in sacks, and the unit returns virtually intact whilt the Chiefs start undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson at left tackle. On offense, new WR Jayden Waddle could become QB Bo Nix’s best friend. Closing argument: Denver was won three in a row SU in the series.
Bo Nix says he won't hesitate to run this season, despite the fact he's coming back from a fractured right ankle. In Kansas City last season, he rushed nine times for 42 yards. In each of his two previous NFL season openers, Nix shown a willingness to run. Look for Nix to scramble enough to clear this discounted number.
I can get excited about my bet, knowing I have an edge: Patrick Mahomes is playing his first game back since the ACL injury, and he's got his left tackle, Josh Simmons, out for the game, and rookie Kahlil Benson moves over from right tackle to make his first start at left tackle. All this happens against the NFL's No. 1 sack team last season with 68 sacks. A new guy with little experience protecting Mahomes blind side vs. a fierce pass rush? That's an edge that gets me pumped about my bet, and I'm getting points on top of it against a team that went 6-11 and missed the playoffs last year. Broncos to win.
Maybe I'm crazy for being high on Worthy this season, but I am. They had huge expectations for him last year and those got derailed by Kelce running a shoddy route on the team's first play of the year. Worthy fought through injury all season and now gets to start the season with Rashee Rice on the field across from him, which will open things up pretty nicely offensively. Reid definitely schemes up specific shot plays for Worthy, so even though this is a tough defense and a potentially low-scoring game, I think Worthy's a great value at this price.
Dating back to 2023 season, over the last six meetings, the combined score of the Broncos-Chiefs game has not gone above 41 points. None of the ones at Arrowhead went over 33. Over the past four years, KC home games have hit 76.5% (26-8) to the under, and by six points per game. While it's hard to predict injury impact, Mahomes is playing his first game off the ACL injury. They also have injury issues on the OL. with Josh Simmons out. Over the past two seasons, these are two of the top four scoring defenses. Last year, Denver had third-best scoring defense (18.3 PPG), while KC was 6th (19.3). Chiefs played 13 of 17 games to the under last year, most in the NFL.
DraftKings (-121). Travis Kelce reeled in 797 yards in the 14 games with Patrick Mahomes behind center in 2025. Averaging 57 receiving yards per game, Kelce cleared this line in 12/14 of those games. KC did not make any meaningful upgrades to their pass-catching corps this offseason, and Kelce should be in best position to succeed tonight. The Broncos were a tight-end funnel in 2025, allowing a 28% receiving yard share to the position (fifth highest) while ranking 18th in FTN’d DVOA metric against the position. Denver is very strong against the run and on the boundary, which should set up Kelce for success tonight. I have the newly wed staving off Father Time tonight. I’d bet this to over 45.5 yards.
Bo Nix's passing attempts are all about volume. He averaged 36.0 attempts per game last season and cleared this number in 10 of 17 regular-season starts, including 46 attempts in his last game. Denver called a pass on roughly 58% of its offensive plays, and Davis Webb’s promotion shouldn’t change much. He’s an internal hire who already worked as the pass-game coordinator and QB coach, so the offensive philosophy should stay largely intact. Game script should stay in our favor all night!
Denver returns a good amount of their personnel from last year's AFC Championship Game appearance. Most importantly, their QB Bo Nix returns and looked like himself in the preseason. For this particular matchup, it'll be the Broncos defense that'll present the biggest challenge to Kansas City and a returning Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs get their season underway with Patrick Mahomes under center, but he won't have his starting left tackle to protect him. With UDFA Kahlil Benson set to start, I love this matchup for star edge rusher Nik Bonitto, who has at least a half-sack in 21 of 34 games over the last two seasons. We'll see how Mahomes holds up in this game, but his mobility may be affected in his first game back from an ACL tear, and that could make him a bit of a sitting duck in the pocket for Bonitto in pass situations. This prop will look better if the Broncos can get out to an early lead, so it may be worth parlaying with Denver's money line.
It's always tough to go into Arrowhead and grab a win (or a cover getting less than 3 points), but the conditions seem ripe to pounce here. The Chiefs come into the season with big questions along the offensive line, secondary and even the QB position with Mahomes coming off a major injury. The Broncos have some questions as well, but they still have a Top 3 defense and an excellent offensive line. Ultimately, I think both interiors control this game and we see a win from the Broncos, but I'll take the points (I don't mind paying for the +3).
Jaylen Waddle quietly was extremely productive during his tenure with the Dolphins and the Broncos traded three draft picks, including a first, to acquire his services. He’ll be making his debut tonight in a tough matchup against the Chiefs secondary doesn’t look quite as formidable this season. Waddle will be used all over the formation and will lineup everywhere. Last season the Broncos attempted the fourth most pass attempts. KC is capable of pushing Denver into a pass heavy gamescript. I expect Waddle to be heavily featured as he looks to make a big splash for his new team.
Kenneth Walker's backups are fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson and pass-catcher Brashard Smith. The Chiefs are starting undrafted rookie Khalil Benson at left tackle. He's a better run-blocker than pass-blocker, and he'll struggle against Denver's Nik Bonitto (27.5 sacks last two seasons). With Patrick Mahomes returning from a torn ACL and LCL, look for the Chiefs to lean on their big free-agent acquisition. Even if Walker is inefficient early, Andy Reid will stick with him because Walker always is a threat to bust a long run.
Rice is Patrick Mahomes’ safety blanket, and 5.5 receptions feels low for the role he owns in this offense. Rice finished 2025 with a 28.7% target share and was targeted on more than 30% of his routes. He recorded at least six receptions in six of eight games last season and in eight of his last 11 full games dating back to 2024. With an aDOT of under 4, he’s clearly a great option underneath and a chain mover.
Coming off a multi-ligament tear in his left knee, will Patrick Mahomes run less in 2026? Mahomes himself noted in training camp that he needs to "stop running a little bit too much" and noted that he can lean on his new addition, RB Kenneth Walker. Even when he was completely healthy, he only rushed for three yards in his one appearance against the Broncos last season. I'm going to listen to the man himself and consider logic. I don't see Mahomes scrambling much in his very first game back from injury, especially against this defense.
The AFC West has seen a change of guard, and the biggest reason is Bo Nix's maturation as the Broncos' quarterback. The Chiefs had won 16 straight games against the Broncos until Denver won four of the last five, including the last three. In last year's game at Kansas City, he rushed 9 times for 42 yards and a TD, and I like him to score a touchdown here. He broke his ankle last season, and I don't expect him to be his normal self running the ball, but with a touchdown on the line, he’ll do the unexpected for a player coming off an injury. He scored five touchdowns last year, including one at Kansas City.
Fans and bettors are high on the Broncos this season in the AFC, like they are on the Rams in the NFC. At BetMGM, the Broncos are the very highest in ticket count to go OVER their season win total. Their win total last year was 8.5. They won 14 games and now it's only 9.5. KC is favored in this game and it's already up to 3 in many spots, yet the masses are playing the dog. Everything is telling me Chiefs at home, laying less than a field goal, is still nearly an auto-play. This is triple-revenge for the Chiefs who have now fallen to Denver in each of their last three meetings. Give me Kansas City to win by three or more.
Patrick Mahomes seems on track to play in Week 1, and even if he's 100% healthy, I like this number for Denver. The Broncos have the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and the Josh Simmons injury could be a problem for Mahomes in the passing game. The Broncos upgraded their passing attack with Jaylen Waddle, which will be an early test for Kansas City's rebuilt CB room. Bottom line: I think the Broncos are the better team, particularly in Week 1, and the Chiefs shouldn't get 3 points for home-field advantage, so there's nice value here.
The Broncos went from 10-7 in Bo Nix’s rookie year to 14-3 last season, losing in the AFC Championship. This team looks to be in a spot to take another step, and what an opportunity against the perennial powerhouse Chiefs in KC. Patrick Mahomes is coming off his major knee injury and didn’t play a single minute in preseason, and a revamped defensive backfield may take time. There are no such glaring issues for Denver going into Week 1.
All the talk is about Patrick Mahomes returning for Week 1 but I'm more interested in the big uglies. I expect the Broncos to dominate this game in the trenches. Denver has my top-rated offensive line entering the season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs could start undrafted Kahlil Benson at right tackle. Benson may end up being a good player but an undrafted free agent protecting a QB coming off an ACL injury in Week 1 isn't ideal. I give Denver's vaunted pass rush a big edge in this matchup and expect a lower-scoring game. I'll grab the +3 now in case the number goes down closer to kickoff.
