The return of WR DK Metcalf from a potentially disastrous two-game suspension gives us pause. But of the four units (offense/defense), how many are elite? Yep, just one. The Texans permitted the fewest yards. They amassed 19 interceptions, creating a plus-17 edge in turnovers. Their pass rushers, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, teamed up for 29.5 sacks. While QB Aaron Rodgers has been crafty enough to lift Pittsburgh over lesser defenses, reduced arm strength and mobility could be exposed by this magnificent D — even with Metcalf out of football jail. A nine-game SU streak alone speaks volumes. Add in the fact that Houston's only setbacks since the bye was to top seeds Denver and Seattle, and the momentum rests with the guests.
Since Justin Herbert broke his left hand, he has soldiered through four games. The total points scored in three were 38 (in regulation), 39 and 36. The Dallas game produced 51 with a team ranked on No. 2 offense and No. 30 on defense. The Chargers have leaned on their D with Herbert restricted. It yielded just five yards per pass this season, third lowest in the league. Overall, L.A.'s defense is fifth best, with New England's three slots behind. For points permitted, the Patriots are fourth stingiest, the Chargers ninth. While the Pats can conoct big gains with QB Derek Maye's arm, this has all the indredients of a low-to-moderate score.
This number keeps drifting up, apparently in part because of the half-dozen "questionables" listed by San Fran. That is a concern, yet the Eagles’ offense has not been motoring enough to warrant this big of a spot. During the latter half of the season, it ranked among the least potent. And, among the banged-up 49ers, the most valuable among them -- OT Trent Williams -- is trending toward playing. The Niners' playoff legacy cannot be ignored. They reached the Super Bowl two seasons ago, losing to Kansas City in overtime, and the NFC finals each of the two previous years. They can certainly stay within a touchdown margin.
The Jags are better in most respects. They are hotter, having swept eight in a row outright. And — dare we say it? — the quarterback gap is marginal. No doubt the Bills’ Allen has shined in January. Still, he has lost more (six) than won (five) ATS. Trevor Lawrence is on a tear, with 15 TD tosses against one pick in the past six games. Factor in the Bills’ inefficiency against the run — a dreadful 5.1 yards per carry allowance — and Jax should score more than enough to offset whatever magic Allen conjures up. As a bonus, PK Cam Little, with the two longest field goals ever, can hit from the parking lot.
Amnesia helps here. Forget that Indiana was recently the losingest program in FBS. These Hoosiers are the best team this season, and it's not debatable. They have not lost a fumble since their opener and have committed just eight turnovers. Only one team has been assessed fewer penalty yards. They lead everyone in third-down conversion success. They have dropped just a half-dozen passes. They amassed twice as many sacks as their opponents. Their TD advantage: a staggering 76-13. If such overwhelming evidence is not enough, they beat Oregon 30-20 in Eugene. Wish the hook would go away, but we are fine with laying 3.5.
What happens when a powerful offense clashes with a powerful defense? In this case, the D prevails. Miami has yielded a microscopic 9.7 ppg during its six-game win streak. While QB Trinidad Chambliss is a major headache for any defense, the Hurricanes can contain him. They have notched a dozen sacks in the playoffs. The 'Canes offense won't knock anyone's socks off, but QB Carson Beck is playing error-free, with no picks in the postseason. Ole Miss loses two position coaches to LSU this week. On the surface, that is repairable, but their departure and the near-departures of both coordinators is an unwanted distraction at crunch time.
The presence of four-loss Illinois State in the FCS finals has delivered a double-digit spread. While the Redbirds have impressed, they are dealing with their fifth straight playoff game away from home and seventh in the last eight. The travel could take its toll. Montana State is well-rounded, ranking eighth in scoring offense and defense in FCS. The Bobcats wield an average points margin of 20 per game. Only twice have their wins come by fewer than this number. These championship games can get out of hand. Prior to last year's three-point thriller, the margin were 22, 24 and 28 points. We might have another here.
Lamar Jackson has been flummoxed in visits to the Iron City. In four starts, he has thrown twice as many interceptions (six) as TD passes (three) while suffering 18 sacks. Dealing with injuries, he has endured his worst NFL season. His clearance to play has been headline news, which has obscurred a major Steelers development. Pass rush demon TJ Watt is poised to return from an injury layoff. WR DK Metcalf did QB Aaron Rodgers and teammates no favors by getting a two-game suspension, perhaps the costlest short-term sit-down in league annals. Here is counting on A-Rod to find solutions in an inspired performance that could mark his farewell. The hook matters here. It could come in handy in the event of a narrow margin.
Perhaps Philadelphia does not care about which team it hosts in the first round of the playoffs. Word is that several key Eagles will skip the regular season closer. No specifics yet, but it seems likely that QB Jalen Hurts and RB Saquon Barkley will be among the spectators. Eagles' games lean toward low scores anyway, with an average of 39 ppg since their bye. With offensive stars probably sitting, look for that figure to be out of reach. The Commanders' defense has been mostly dreadful, but maybe it will draw incentive from being able to shine against Eagles' backups.
Poor Quinn Ewers. It's the rookie's third start -- away from home, against a foe shooting for a No. 1 playoff seed -- and his main helpers likely are sitting out. RB De'Von Achane is their best rusher, WR Jaylen Waddle their best wide receiver -- both by a wide margin. New England enters with an outside shot at the top seed. But if Denver, playing concurrently, puts away the Chargers early as expected, the Patriots might go into get-the-game-over-with mode.
The Rams are angry. Perhaps embarrassed. They played as poorly as possible Monday in Atlanta for one half, then rallied to within three points before bowing to the Falcons. While some coaches might rest starters, coach Sean McVay vows to deploy them. L.A. can better its playoff seed. Perhaps more importantly, it strives to regain momentum after two SU setbacks. Playing at home where they are 6-1 SU and facing a visitor with eight straight SU losses, five by margins between 19 and 28 points, the Rams figure to take out their recent frustrations in emphatic fashion.
No QB has taken a worse beating this season -- or most any other -- than Los Angeles' Justin Herbert. Even with the Chargers able to improve their seed via a win, coach Jim Harbaugh is withholding Herbert for an extra week of healing. It is unclear if any teammates will sit, which makes an ATS play worth delaying pending further evidence. The Under seems safer, with backup Trey Lance lining up against a demonic defense -- and behind an injury-tormented O-line as well. The defenses are ranked third (Denver) and fourth (L.A.) in the league. No matter the low total, the ingredents are there for an Under.
Dallas has won all but one of the last 17 meetings SU, with a 12-5 ATS record during that span. Let's ride the Cowboys again with QB Dak Prescott, statistically the league's premier passer hoping to finish strong. The Giants, who are hitting the finish line as an improved team, claim they will go all out. But will they? With a defeat and a Las Vegas victory, they land the No. 1 draft pick. A W could send them all the way down to No. 7. If things do not go well early in this matchup, they would be forgiven for calling off the dogs and coasting home with an L.
Even on a three-game slide entering Week 18, the Packers' priority is restoring health for the playoffs, where they are locked in as a 7 seed. Hence, look for several no-names on the field. Ailing QB Jordan Love, withheld from Saturday's loss to Baltimore. might get another DNP after a half-dozen teammates went down during the game. Already Green Bay was among the most injury-decimated team. Less uncertain is the status of Vikings QB JJ McCarthy. The injury-prone player skipped Sunday's game. It might not matter if he plays should Minnesota dispatch mostly first-stringers elsewhere against a bunch of Packers backups. The Vikes likely can name the score, within reason.
This line has been propped up by Jacksonville's seven-game ATS streak. It is ignoring improvement by the Titans. They are 2-5 SU since their bye. Two of those losses were by narrow margins to Super Bowl contenders Houston (three points) and Seattle (six). Two others were by 13 and eight points, all within this game's spread. Tennessee QB Cam Ward carved out a snazzy passer rating of above 100 two and three games ago -- his firsts of the season -- and followed it last Sunday with a respectable 88.6. He has settled in, which suggests the Titans can score enough to stay competitive.