Mike's Past Picks
OK, let's try this again after missing twice picking against Temple. Before their storybook run, the Owls' last loss was to UAB. It wasn't a routine defeat, either, with the Blazers hitting triple digits in a 28-point smashing. Enduring its fifth game in five days at this tournament, Temple deals with tired legs, which could allow UAB to flirt with 100 again. Three Owls logged between 34 and 37 minutes Saturday. The Blazers are relatively refreshed in facing only their third game of the AAC. N.C. State's similar run to the ACC title, with five wins in as many days, offers a cautionary tale. Can't happen twice, right?
The oddsmakers have maintained consistency with the total this season. The figure is identical to or a half-point away from the totals in the regular season matchups. Given the tension of a championship game in a one-bid league and with both sides on an away court, the number should be lower even though the series' scoring is high so far. Yale likely will adhere to its slow pace -- 291st in the nation for possessions per game -- that was evident in the Bulldogs' 126-point outing in the semifinals. Brown, with a 185th ranking, is not exactly run-and-gun either.
The better team, Grand Canyon, owns the superior defense. The Antelopes yield 64.3 points per game and held the Mavericks to 69 and 61 in their regular season clashes. In two recent WAC championship games, the 'Lopes held their opponents to 66 and 56 points. If those trends continue and Arlington winds up in the 60s, G.C. might need to reach the 80s for an Over. That's well above its average.
UC Davis, the favored team, ranks 202nd in possessions per game, well below the norm. Its defense generally keeps opponents in the 60s. Their regular season meetings wound up with big totals, but the tension of a league finals with only the winner advancing to the NCAA Tournament should bring those numbers down. A promising omen is Davis' 133-point game in the Big West semifinals.
Double-digits is a steep spot in a tournament finals involving ultra-rivals and with the underdog needing a W for an NCAA berth. However, N.C. State plays its fifth -- fifth! -- game in five days. With a seven-man rotation, some Wolfpack players could hit the wall. The Tar Heels, who have played just twice this week, carry motivation, too, with a No. 1 NCAA seed on the line. They downed N.C. State by 13 and nine in the regular season. Given the Wolfpack's weariness, the 10.-point yield is reasonable.
Let's hope UTEP learned its lesson in allowing Western to control the pace in a 90-80 points-fest during the regular season. The Miners have prepared for a more languid pace with points totals of 123 and 128 in their CUSA tournament games. The high-octane Hilltoppers' semifinal outing resulted in a modest 139 points. This total is just a tad below these teams' regular season scoring rates, so a do-or-die CUSA finals with both teams feeling pressure could land in the 130s.
Delaware State allowed Howard to dictate the pace in their two regular season matchups that generated 146 and 151 points. The third time should be more charming for the underdog Hornets. They bring in a No. 239 ranking for possessions per outing and have played a pair of 71-58 games in the MEAC Tournament. The Hornets' league games averaged right on this number, and a game plan to take some air out of the ball should get this one under the total.
Temple is playing well, but let's not lose sight of the fact that the Owls won five AAC games, eight fewer than Charlotte. One of those 49ers wins was at Temple, so the neutral-court setting serves them well. The difference in KenPom ratings is significant -- 115h for Charlotte, 197th for Temple. The Owls rank near the bottom (239th) in adjusted offensive efficiency. A third game in three days against a physically restored foe blessed with a double bye adds to the challenge.
It's potentially weary Wichita, suiting up for its third game in three days, against rested UAB in its AAC Tournament debut. Three Shockers starters logged 38, 36 and 36 minutes Thursday, and the rotation is essentially limited to seven players. The Blazers are far superior offensively, with a 77th ranking by KenPom for adjusted efficiency, well ahead of Wichita's ranking of 203rd. UAB has covered in seven of its previous 10 outings.
Cincinnati enters its third game in three days on the heels of an emotionally exhausting win over Kansas. While rested teams such as Baylor often undergo slow starts in league tournaments, the Bears' freshness is an advantage against a foe whose rotation is thinned out by an injury to CJ Fredrick. In Tuesday's Big 12 opener, the Bearcats deployed three players for at least 35 minutes. Baylor handled Cincy by three points on the road in the regular season and is 17-10 against the spread.
Virginia rarely enters an ACC Tournament with an NCAA berth on the line. This is the exception. The Cavaliers, who usually have only seeding at stake, are loaded with incentive. They get an opponent on a roll but fighting fatigue after playing Tuesday and Wednesday. UVA won the regular season matchup by four points at B.C. two weeks ago as its offense awakened from a slumber by scoring 72 points. That may not sound like much, but it is triple-digits in the context of the Cavs' occasionally awful offensive play.
Colgate can score but its pace of play -- the Raiders rank 325th in possessions per outing -- keep a lid on its scoring. Lehigh can, too, but its regular season scores against Colgate -- losses by 60-57 and 63-60 -- suggest the Mountain Hawks will take the air out of the ball again. Both closed the regular season on Under streaks. Those ended in the Patriot League tourney, though one was made possible by an overtime win for Lehigh. As much as the Hawks like to push the pace, they knew going deeper than usual into the shot clock is the best way to stay with mighty Colgate.
Denver Pioneers games generate points at a pace rivaling the NBA franchise in their town. South Dakota State also can score at a rapid clip, but the Jackrabbits' slow pace (321st in D-I for possessions per outing) suggests that there is little chance the winning side reaches the 90s, as it did in both regular season meetings. Each team has eased off the gas in the tournament, with Denver games producing 121 and 129 points -- vastly below their norm in the 160s. The 'Rabbits opened with a 142 game, but the semifinal one plunged to 108. Unless the Nuggets replace the Pioneers in this finals, the Under should score.
In their initial meeting this season, the Horizon League finalists nearly short-circuited the scoreboard with a combined 195 points. The rematch was a vastly different story, with 136 scored in regulation before they played two overtimes. Oakland dictated the pace more in the second encounter, and the team that ranks 285th for possessions per game can do so again. The Golden Grizzlies' tournament opener ended with a reasonable 74-71 score. In this championship game against the Panthers, the scoreboard should survive without blowing a fuse.
Draw a line through the crazy 180-point game in which the CAA finalists engaged during the regular season. Typically, each side's games wound up in the vicinity of 150. The tourney results have landed even lower. Both played in 142-point games (regulation time) in the quarterfinals. Then Charleston logged a 117-point semifinal, five fewer than Stony Brook's in theirs. The Seawolves rank 192nd in possessions per outing, below the median. This championship bout should settle in the 140s.