Mike's Picks (7 Live)
Double-digit underdogs stumbled early this season but have righted themselves with five consecutive covers . . .
Denver has downed all seven opponents outright who now are saddled with a losing record . . .
The Bears are winless outright on the road this season, with the worst one (38-13 at San Francisco) happening most recently . . .
Mike's Past Picks
There are trends in college football, and there is this: The last 10 Army-Navy meetings have resulted in a points total under 40. Because of the sky-high stakes, coaches turn conservative in their play-calling, and they do not throw much to begin with. The Black Knights average fewer than eight passes per game by QBs and have advanced the fewest yards by air than any FBS member. The Midshipmen might be airing it out compared to prior iterations but still average just 14 tosses per outing by QBs and rank just three spots ahead of their rivals for passing yards. The clock simply does not stop that often, which sets up another sub-40 outcome for the total.
There is too much positive buzz about L.A.'s 44-42 heart-stopper against Buffalo. The offense was superb but the defense stunk. Having said that, the Rams are more likely to replicate their offensive than defensive showing here. The quartet of QB Matthew Stafford, RB Kyren Williams and WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua might be unmatched in the league. The 49ers are down to their third RB, Isaac Guerendo, and he is banged up. San Fran has weathered a glut of injuries somewhat because of its impressive depth, but there is a limit. Too many guys are out, and a short week complicates preparation for younger players and backups. If DE Nick Bosa sits again, Stafford will get more time in the pocket to make magic.
After a 13-point loss at Hofstra on Monday night, Norfolk State must endure some odd scheduling -- a lunchtime tip at Baylor. The Bears have obliterated four similar foes at home by margins of 37, 63, 31 and 29 points. Their lone loss in seven home outings is to Tennessee, which ascended to the No. 1 ranking this week. The difference in scoring average between the opponents is vast; Baylor ranks 26th in points per game, Norfolk 190th. The Bears have taken case of business in past meetings with the Spartans, winning four times by an average of 30.5 ppg.
In a peculiar bit of scheduling, Cornell concludes a five-game road stretch with a 10 p.m. (ET) tip-off just two days after beating Army at West Point. The Big Red have been impressive out of the blocks, but this is a big ask. Early losses for Cal were expected, seeing as how the Bears are integrating 11 new players, and recent setbacks to Missouri and Stanford are not alarming. They are 5-1 straight-up at home and should capitalize on Cornell's demanding travel itinerary.
The scoreboard operator needs to chug Red Bull. In a recent win, Morgan State rang up 123 points, then amazingly topped it with 124 the next outing. Both victims were lower-level opposition. However, in recent losses to teams closer to their level, the Bears were blitzed for 102 and 91 points. Xavier has dipped below its usual high grade of competition twice to score 94 points. Given the pace that the Bears play, the Musketeers could hit the century mark.
Every year, one team gets covered almost head-to-toe by bite marks from the injury bug. This season, it's San Francisco. Monday night in Buffalo, the offense was further afflicted as RBs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason will be off rehabbing -- McCaffrey after having just returned. That leaves rookie Isaac Guerendo as the primary ball-carrier. Though it's early in the week, the defense could welcome reinforcements if DE Nick Bosa and others return. For the Bears, a head coaching change is unlikely to super-charge the pedestrian offense right away. While its stock is rising, Chicago's O still ranks 25th. These factors add up to a score lower than this mid-range number.
Only two weeks ago, these teams combined for 22 points. There is little reason to believe they will double the total in a rapid turn-around. Both defenses were trending in a desirable direction before the first meeting. Seattle must toil without top RB Kenneth Walker, and effective edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu has been activated off I.R. QB Geno Smith has been sharp, but Walker's absence should allow the 'Zona defense to focus on pass prevention. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has slumped, throwing three interceptions with one TD pass in the last two outings.
Concussed Trevor Lawrence has landed on injured reserve, leaving the Jags with pedestrian backup Mac Jones at the helm. He has throw for more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two) this season. Jax can hardly lean on its defense for a rescue. It ranks last in yards and 30th in points allowed. Jones counterpart Will Levis, for the time being, is avoiding the brain farts that seemed befitting a high school QB and plagued him earlier in the season. A recent upset of Houston and competitive losses to the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota might sound like the elements of faint praise, but it signals an improvement for the Titans that should be sufficient for a cover here.