Not one, but two different New Orleans tight ends scored against the Bills on Sunday in the Saints furious second-half comeback. Meanwhile, Dalton Kincaid was busy finally producing a result we've been expecting on a regular basis. With D.J. Moore in town to distract defenses, Kincaid got to eat in Week 1 and as long as he's healthy, he's very much a viable option to find the end zone. We're getting good value here on a guy who will be able to leak out easily in the red zone with Detroit's defense collapsing to stop Josh Allen from running.

I'm a big "Jamo in Primetime" guy generally speaking but this matchup is tailor made for the speedy former first-round pick who is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. A ridiculous FOUR different receivers had 20+ yard catches against the Bills. They can be exploited down the field. I have concerns about the Lions pass protection and how long Jared Goff will be able to hold the ball before getting pressured, but we're getting 2-1 on Jamo here in a big spot where he'll be featured in the downfield passing attack.

I have ZERO interest in getting in front of this full game under because these teams are so explosive, but I do think we see these teams start a little slow. Both of them love to run the ball (Buffalo attempted two passes in its first two drives in Week 1) and are willing to control the ball and milk the clock some. I think we see a ton of James Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs early in this game, which lends itself to a lack of scoring before a second-half outburst. The line is telling too that the books aren't offering the key number of 28 and still juicing it to the under.

I do believe this game gets loose late, but as noted above, the expectation is a lot of running in the first half. And based on the usage from Sunday, I don't necessarily think we see that much from the other backs in Detroit, not at least while Jahmyr Gibbs is healthy. It's a short week so maybe that changes and we see a little more Sione Vaki, but this is a monster matchup for the Lions and Gibbs should be full go.

Maybe I'm crazy for being high on Worthy this season, but I am. They had huge expectations for him last year and those got derailed by Kelce running a shoddy route on the team's first play of the year. Worthy fought through injury all season and now gets to start the season with Rashee Rice on the field across from him, which will open things up pretty nicely offensively. Reid definitely schemes up specific shot plays for Worthy, so even though this is a tough defense and a potentially low-scoring game, I think Worthy's a great value at this price.

If you have lightning fingers, you probably added Mayer in your fantasy leagues and snapped up his props right when the Brock Bowers news was announced. But there's still a little meat on the bone here, because there's just not a lot of weapons on the Raiders for Kirk Cousins to throw to. Mayer averages 49 yards per game without Bowers in the lineup and his only competition for targets are Tre Tucker, Ashton Jeanty and Jalen Nailor. Cousins has always been TE friendly (just look at what he did for Kyle Pitts to close last year) and Mayer should be able to clear 40 yards against a bad Dolphins defense.

This line drifted down all offseason, finally getting under double digits this week. Jacoby Brissett isn't an elite quarterback, but he's got plenty of experience and has a trio of good pass catchers at his disposal with Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson. Even if Jeremiyah Love isn't able to go -- and I think he will -- he'll be splitting carries with Tyler Allegier, a capable back in his own right. Defensively, I don't have a ton of hope for the Cards this season, but we might get some adjustment from the Chargers on that side of the ball as well, presenting an opportunity for Arizona to put up points and keep this within a touchdown... or better.

I'm genuinely kind of shocked by how this line is, as well as how low people were on Emeka Egbuka heading into 2026. Before a Week 6 hamstring issue, Ebuka averaged five catches, 90 yards and a touchdown per game -- which included a rough Week 2 effort against the Texans elite defense. Now he's the featured wideout for a dangerous passing attack against what is a slightly-but-not-drastically improved Bengals defense. This game has a 50-point total and Egbuka practiced in full on Wednesday.

This line looks like it's going to move to -4 and I think that's completely justified. I love the Rams decision to fly down at the last minute to Australia -- Sean McVay is undefeated SU and ATS in international games and I think his unusual approach to fly in and fly out has really benefited his team and will do so here. Also, the Rams are the better team and hellbent on making a Super Bowl run, which starts in Week 1. Myles Garrett should go gangbusters and all the offensive pieces are healthy for L.A. to start the year, with San Francisco a lot more banged up. Rams win by a touchdown plus.

In six Week 1 or Week 2 games in his career, Puka Nacua has seven rush attempts, with the one game he didn't get one coming in Week 1 of his rookie year. In those games, he's cleared three yards four of six times. In other words, the rush attempt(s) should be there, it's just whether or not we can get the three yards. I feel confident in a fully healthy Nacua turning McVay's trickery into three measly yards.

This is a monster over to take on a Tuesday, but we don't care. There was some buy back on it that got it down to a half point or so and we'll take advantage. Weather might be a concern (low temps, medium winds) but I'm not worried about that against a Bears secondary that can be gotten. Just look at Jordan Love's numbers in the Packers loss to Chicago last week. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams is the king of the second half surge, so even if the Rams pile up points early, they won't be able to take their foot off the gas and Williams will move the ball against a suspect secondary in the second half and maybe the first as well.

Stevenson has seen a ton of snaps over the last few weeks and was the focal point for the Patriots offense against the Chargers. He's not normally considered a receiving back, per se, but his targets are way up over the last month plus. He has 20 targets in his last six games, all of which have seen him go north of 21 receiving yards. When Stevenson is out on the field, defenses are typically geared up to stop the run and he's able to slip out, catch a quick pass from Drake Maye and pick up good yardage.

Purdy cleared this number in his last three games and in four of five. He's scoring with his legs and he's absolutely been looking to use them to pick up big third downs. He only ran twice against Seattle in the last game and still cleared this number. We're also pretty unlikely (based on the spread) to get knees here.I would almost guarantee this closes around 20.5 or thereabouts, so let's jump on this number early and watch Brock run wild against the Seahawks.

I'm not entirely sure what we're doing with this number, because everyone else just saw Allen score two rushing touchdowns against the Jaguars (the best rush defense in football) despite battling 50 different injuries he picked up during the game. The Bills only path to winning the Super Bowl is with Josh Allen turning into Superman the rest of the way. He already did it against the Jags and dragged the Bills into the Divisional Round. I would fully expect we see more of it against the Broncos and he absolutely will not hesitate to put his body on the line and plunge across the goal line. Basically even money early in the week is an autobet on Allen to score.

Trevor Lawrence just finished the best season of his career, which happens to coincide with him having the best rushing season of his career as well (359 yards, nine rushing scores, the latter nearly double his previous career high). Lawrence had the same number of rushing attempts inside the five (nine) as Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley. He trailed only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts in red-zone rushing attempts. He's a smart, physical and elusive runner near the goal line. And this price is really good in a home playoff game as a slight dog to the Bills, who give up plenty of yards on the ground. We'll sprinkle on two rushing scores as well.