Kansas City 9 @ Tampa Bay 31 | 02/07 | 11:30 PM UTC
Kansas City -3
ANALYSIS: The line for the first home-game Super Bowl in history has that host team -- with Tom Brady at QB -- as a field goal underdog. That is no mistake. The Chiefs being down a pair of tackles is the only reason this is still at -3, and I expect it to be up to -4 prior to kickoff. Kansas City has not been a great ATS team this season, but it is 5-1 ATS when favored by six points or less. It has the advantage at QB with Patrick Mahomes (due to his youth and mobility) and at the offensive playmakers positions. The Bucs may keep the Chiefs on edge with their stellar defense in the first half -- remember the 49ers last year? -- but I trust Andy Reid (off a bye) and KC's coaching staff (where it also has an edge) to get the job done in the end and repeat as Super Bowl champions.