Most difficult call of Wild Card Weekend for good reason. The Steelers are dominant on MNF under Mike Tomlin, who is one of the best underdog winners. However, they have been unsuccessful in the playoffs, and they barely deserved to be in the field. The Texans are far better indoors yet going outdoors – in the cold – in an exceedingly difficult environment against a team that fought for this spot. Aaron Rodgers has more experience and guile than CJ Stroud, and with DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh can compete. However, Houston has won nine straight, its only losses since Week 3 are to No. 1 seeds and defense travels. Rodgers is going to be pressured all night, and the Texans will put up just enough points.
The Patriots deserve every ounce of credit they have been given for an incredible season beyond a breakout quarterback and overlooked coach. The Chargers are also coming off consecutive losses, and they have put up some poor performances this season, especially without Joe Alt. However, Los Angeles is rested, and its defense might be the toughest test Drake Maye has faced this season. Jim Harbaugh always has his teams ready and hungry. Justin Herbert, for any criticisms he’s received, is the more experienced passer who should get plenty of opportunities to move the ball. Will sprinkle the Chargers straight up, but the hook makes the spread worthwhile.
There’s little doubt here that the Eagles prevail when the final whistle is blown, but this spread has ballooned to such a point that value now exists with the visitors. While the 49ers were put into a blender by the Seahawks in Week 18, their offense was without Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall, both of whom should be back Sunday. Philadelphia remains stout defensively, but it has faced few offenses of this caliber and rarely wins by margin against such teams. The Eagles will score some, but can they do so consistently enough on a per-drive basis to cover a TD against a 49ers offense that was on fire up until last week?
This was an admittedly tough call. Why? Josh Allen is 0-4 in road playoff games, Buffalo’s defense stinks, Sean McDermott’s job is likely on the line and Jacksonville has been running hot. Digging a bit deeper, while these Jaguars are significantly improved from prior seasons, some opponent luck has been part of their run (outside of the win over the Broncos). The Bills have been forced to beat and compete against top quarterbacks one week after the next, and while they have slipped some, there’s an experience level this team and coaching staff has that cannot be overlooked. The momentum toward Jacksonville shifted this line 3 full points. Buffalo’s running game and Josh Allen still need to get stopped. What worries most is Cam Little.
If the Packers were full-strength with Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft, this would be a no-brainer. As it stands, the Bears have a real shot, particularly given Ben Johnson’s ability to exploit mismatches. Green Bay needs to get home against Caleb Williams, which it has not been overly successful at achieving without Parsons. Many of the Packers’ starters got an extra week of rest, Jordan Love is healthy, and if this turns into a passing game, he will have the edge. Another way to play this is to take Green Bay with the first-half line if worried about a Chicago comeback. The Bears remain a turnover-dependent team, and that’s not necessarily sustainable – even though it has been to this point in the season.
Nearly everything went wrong for the Rams in the first meeting between these teams, and while that should give the Panthers confidence in this rematch – especially since they are hosting – it’s tough to see how Carolina stays within the margins. Los Angeles is a far more talented and experienced team, and it was dealt a wake-up call over Weeks 16-17. In seven games against playoff teams, the Panthers are 2-5 with all five losses coming by 11+ points (including defeats of 29, 31). The Rams are 2-0 ATS as double-digit favorites this season, and there’s a reason this is the first game of the wild card weekend slate.
It’s quite tough to beat a top 10 college football team twice in one season. Remembering that Indiana beat Oregon at its own place by 10 points tells you the first result was no fluke. What’s been most impressive about the Hoosiers is how they have completely snuffed out most opponents, including holding Ohio State and Alabama to a combined 13 points. The win over the Tide was a shock to the system, but there’s no doubt that the Ducks present a far greater challenge given their playmaking talent. The Hoosiers’ size on both lines coupled with Curt Cignetti’s magic has them as the rightful favorite in the College Football Playoff. Now that the line is down to a field goal, it’s time to play.
Initial expectation was that Ole Miss' us-against-the-world mentality would fizzle out after its first-round win. Could not have been more incorrect seeing the way it went up and down the field against Georgia. The Rebels have somehow overcome the coaching distraction with Trinidad Chambliss fully establishing himself as perhaps the most electirc player in these playoffs. Ole Miss should stand up better against Miami's defensive front than the Hurricanes' first two opponents, and it's tough to see how UM has enough firepower to match the underdogs shot-for-shot. Playing Ole Miss and the points -- with a sprinkle on an outright victory and the under (if so inclined) -- is the best move.
Beyond the AFC North crown and an NFL playoff bid, this game could be a pendulum on which the futures of both coaches and quarterbacks are decided – as insane as that sounds. There’s rare pressure on John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, smoke around Lamar Jackson and retirement expectations for Aaron Rodgers. An all-out effort from Rodgers should be expected, but DK Metcalf’s absence severely limits the Steelers offense. How does Pittsburgh score? Jackson will be on two weeks rest; he went 18 of 23 with 4 TD the last time he was allowed to heal this season. The Ravens can control this game with Derrick Henry and play the possessions, plus Baltimore’s ceiling is higher, and it’s revenge-minded from the Dec. 7 loss.
Even with the Eagles resting many starters, they are the more talented team in this game. Not only that, they know that playing better overall will be required for a playoff run. In a similar situation last year, Sunday starter Tanner McKee threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns in a seven-point win over the Giants. Speaking of New York, that’s the only team Washington has defeated since Oct. 5. Philadelphia also has a chance at the No. 2 seed as Chicago is playing a game Detroit squad. With the spread hitting a FG, let’s play E-a-g-l-e-s.
The Lions are not about to go quiet into the night, especially against Ben Johnson. This is evidenced by Amon-Ra St. Brown suiting up. While this was not originally playable at a field goal, it has grown to the point where there is value with Detroit, which is not going to turn the ball over six times like it did last week. The entire team needs a bounce-back performance, and Dan Campbell should be able to motivate the Lions to a strong finish. Detroit won this game 52-21 in Week 2, but all we’re predicting is the visitors finishing within four points. Chicago is playing for the No. 2 seed, but it generally does not win by margin against teams that move the ball.
Trusting the Cowboys this season has been a losing proposition. Outside of the Chiefs, perhaps no team has cost us more significantly. Dallas enters 1-3 straight up and 0-4 ATS since the start of December, but New York has lost nine straight games before dominating the worst team in the league (Las Vegas). Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson and Jevon Holland are out for the Giants, as are two starters along the offensive line. The Cowboys offense is missing Javonte Williams, which presents a prove-it opportunity for Jaydon Blue. If Dallas cannot cover this … shame.
The Texans have not been blowing teams out, but here, one of the two best defenses in the NFL gets to feast on a rookie in Riley Leonard. The Colts defense has done well to give it a chance in games, but these are still losers of six straight with double-digit losses to playoff teams. Houston could potentially pull players late if Jacksonville is blowing out Tennessee, but by then, the margin should already be firmly in hand. Plus, DeMeco Ryans said he is not sitting his starters. The line has come down a full point from earlier in the week, so even with raised odds and without Nico Collins, it's attractive under 10.
Myles Garrett will get the sack record. Once that is achieved, will the Browns keep him in the rest of the game? No matter, the Bengals will not operate like the Steelers did last week, and unlike Pittsburgh, Joe Burrow has weapons to stretch and take down the Cleveland defense. With Harold Fannin Jr. and Quinshon Judkins out, Shedeur Sanders is being asked to go head-to-head with Joe Burrow and cover against the Bengals on his own. Even with Cincinnati’s awful defense, that feels mighty unlikely. This line is going up, but the Bengals are the play up to -8, and they are a tremendous teaser leg down to -2.
There’s upward movement coming with the Falcons line, so let’s lock it in before it reaches a full 4 points (though it’s worth taking at that number, too). While the Saints have been impressive winning and covering four straight, Tyler Shough does not have his top weapon in Chris Olave, who makes an outsized impact on the offense. Atlanta has similarly won and covered three straight. It's at home with all its playmakers active, including Drake London. We’re not getting the best number here, and the hook could wind up costing us, but in a week of slim pickings, the Falcons are a solid play given the circumstances.