ANALYSIS: Classic head vs. gut play in a Super Bowl with two No. 1 seeds starting MVP-caliber quarterbacks and talented rosters. The head says the Eagles, which rolled through the NFC, enter with one of the NFL's top defenses and have historic ATS stats in their favor. The gut says the Chiefs, which are far more experienced, get the uber-successful Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes coming off extra preparation and would have been favorites if not dealing with injuries. (The report is clear.) Philadelphia has luckily not been forced to rely on Jalen Hurts' injured shoulder yet while rolling through weakened opponents. Kansas City has succeeded despite Mahomes' high-ankle sprain, which should be quite fine with two additional weeks of rest, while outdueling Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Despite so many tickets on Philly, the line has not budged. There are three picks in this write-up: Chiefs +1.5, Eagles 1H and the double result.

ANALYSIS: There’s been no stauncher backer of the Bengals down the stretch than your’s truly, but even I am shocked that the contrarian play in the AFC Championship Game is the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. There seems to be an inherent bias against Kansas City with Tyreek Hill no longer on the roster, and while the offense may be less explosive, it’s actually more efficient. Mahomes with no rest, rehabilitation or even a brace gutted out a win, and now he’s had all the aforementioned items to aid his recovery. As noted last week, Cincinnati over Buffalo was a total no-brainer, but it does not change Cincy's recent close games against teams with far worse offenses like Baltimore and New England. With Travis Kelce playing, I'm willing to buck the trendy play and lay the short number with KC.

ANALYSIS: The Eagles can beat you at all three levels offensively with a two-headed running game, field-stretching wide receivers and one of the tight ends in football over the middle. They have been the most complete team all season. They're playing at home. And they have a defense that will give Brock Purdy fits in the pocket similar to how the Cowboys did a week ago. The 49ers, meanwhile, are starting that rookie QB on the road in one of the sport's toughest environments. And while they also have an ultra-talented roster on both sides, they won't be able to slow Philadelphia offensively and create as many opportunities via turnovers as they did against Dallas. If the Eagles can score, the Eagles can win -- and at under a field goal, I like their chances.

ANALYSIS: In what may be a coin-flip game, getting more than a field goal with the Cowboys offers significant value. While the 49ers have been dominant of late, they have avoided the best teams in the NFC playing only two conference playoff teams all season (Seattle and Tampa Bay, not exactly top competition). Dallas, meanwhile, has been battle tested. It also has a more veteran QB in Dak Prescott, who was firing on all cylinders last week. It will be key for Dak to submit a clean sheet and not give San Francisco extra opportunities. Meanwhile, the 49ers will be starting seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy, who has played incredibly well but has yet to face pressure like the kind he will be under Sunday night. What give me some pause is San Francisco’s extra rest, preparation time and coaching advantage. But that can only make up for so much on the field. (Despite the quality defenses in this matchup, I also like a couple bucks on the over at 46.5.)

ANALYSIS: The Bengals’ injuries along the offensive line are a legitimate concern, but they are also on an 8-1 ATS streak as road underdogs, and the Bills have consistently struggled to stop quality offenses. Buffalo is 2-7 ATS this season against the top 20, 1-6 against the top 10 with no such covers since Oct. 16. Cincinnati is on a 7-2 ATS streak with its lone failures coming by a combined 1.5 points to Baltimore, both outright wins by a touchdown-plus. Joe Burrow is the more reliable quarterback this season, he should be able to exploit the Bills secondary with Ja’Marr Chase & Co. This spread has ballooned too far. There will be a moneyline sprinkle on Cincinnati outright.