Decided to make a late play with the line ticking down. It feels like the Cowboys are getting too much credit for beating the Giants (defensive TD needed) and being undervalued against the Commanders. The Bengals may lack Ws, but they twice came within a FG of beating the Ravens and went back and forth with a tough Steelers team. Cincinnati just has too many weapons: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Mar Chase, Tee Higgins. Cooper Rush’s dink-and-dunk play will not allow CeeDee Lamb to go off as necessary to cover (1-5 ATS at home), and the Cowboys secondary struggles against creative QBs. Bengals are 5-1 ATS on the road, 4-2 ATS as favorites of 4+ points (four straight covers). I bought this at -4 (-115).

Just as we took advantage of a buy-low spot with the 49ers, it feels like another here with the Chiefs. Trusting Kansas City to win by any margin has become foolhardy, and yet, we are suckers for punishment. Offensive line issues have plagued Patrick Mahomes, but those appear to be partially repaired. Plus, Isiah Pacheco should get a full complement of plays after being warmed back up last week. The Chargers are playing consecutive road games without J.K. Dobbins. Their OL allowed the Falcons of all teams to terrorize Justin Herbert; what are Chris Jones and the Chiefs going to do? Los Angeles lost this matchup by a TD at home in Week 4, and it’s 1-4 against the best defensive fronts it’s faced.

The 49ers have lost three straight with an 0-4 ATS streak; the Bears have lost six straight with a 2-0-1 ATS streak. Chicago also has an interim coach in Thomas Brown, who has stepped up his responsibilities considerably this season. Across the field is Kyle Shanahan, one of the best in the NFL who is dealing with a M.A.S.H. unit. Despite that, San Francisco still has plenty of playmakers with Isaac Guerendo a hidden gem in the backfield. Missing Nick Bosa on defense hurts, but this is also as low of a spot as you can get San Francisco basically any time the last four seasons. No doubt this is a risky proposition, but a flier with the 49ers in this spot is worth it.

The Bills are the belle of the ball right now in the NFL – and rightly so, they’ve been playing great football. Buffalo is also flying cross country after clinching its division early on short rest against a talented offensive team that has enough weapons to move the ball regularly. Matthew Stafford should be able to find his guys against the Bills’ zone with improved protection in the pocket. Certainly wish I got this earlier in the week at +4.5, but getting more than a FG is still valuable. The public is all over Buffalo and this line has only moved toward Los Angeles, which appears to be live to win this outright.

It’s tough to beat an NFL team twice in the regular season, even tougher to do it on the road and even tougher when they are desperate. The Cardinals need to beat the Seahawks to have a chance at winning the division, and their 6-6 record is not indicative of the team’s quality. Kenneth Walker is out for Seattle; he was responsible for 33% the Seahawks’ yards in their first meeting, which totaled 22 points. Originally was not planning to take Arizona past -2.5, but Walker’s absence and James Conner’s return to form are enough to make a play. Just don’t see the Cardinals offense laying another egg for the second time in three weeks.

Prepared to stay away from this game all week -- given there was no way I was trusting Will Levis as a favorite beyond a score -- but the line has come down to a point that I'm willing to roll with the Titans as part of a weak 1 p.m. slate. The Jaguars are terrible and even worse with Mac Jones in for Trevor Lawrence. Tennessee plays better at home, and Levis has improved throwing four TD to one INT over his last two games -- seven TD to two INT since Nov. 10. The Jags are a major step down in class from the Titans' recent opponents, but I would not take this past -3.

The loss of George Pickens obviously hurts the Steelers, but the Browns are operating without Cedric Tillman leaving both teams down top WRs. Cleveland had everything going for it in the prior meeting with the weather limiting Russell Wilson’s effectiveness severely. You need to ask why a team that lost by 5 just a few weeks ago is now favored by a TD at home. The reason is the volatility of Jameis Winston, and therefore, the Browns. Cleveland is terrible giving up explosive plays, and Pittsburgh this time will have the opportunity to hit them; the opposite is the case when it comes to the Steelers (outside of last week). Steelers have not lost at home since Sept. 29. I'll be teasing Pittsburgh with Minnesota.

This is a massive spread for an NFL game -- one I rarely take -- and it's one you might expect to have seen against the Panthers earlier this season before they started showing major fight in November. I believe the Bryce Young turnaround is real and he will be QB1 in 2025, but this Eagles defense is a major step up in class from Carolina's last four games. Plus, Philadelphia is uniquely posed to take advantage of a horrid rush defense with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and (even later in the game) Kenneth Gainwell. Wish I got this earlier in the week at -12.5, but this score sets up something like 34-10, so I'm still comfortable here.

It's been an impressive season for Penn State with a predictable outcome a few weeks ago when it lost to Ohio State at home. So goes James Franklin's career against top-five teams (1-13) with an ongoing drought dating back to 2016. Oregon has impressed most of the season even if it suffered an odd scare at Wisconsin. Both teams are loaded offensively in what should be a highlight-filled matchup, but the Ducks do have more weapons overall. Even with Franklin's struggles punching up, let's not forget Dan Lanning has made plenty of head-scratching decisions in big games. Head vs. Heart play here. Will be rooting for Penn State to get off the schneid but playing Oregon in what should be the game of Championship Week.

Georgia has the championship pedigree. Texas has the momentum and the revenge factor. It's immensely difficult to beat an elite college football team twice in one season. What offered brief pause in taking the Longhorns was Quinn Ewers' nagging ankle, but I'd rather have him hobbled than Carson Beck at full strength -- especially against this elite Texas defense. Steve Sarkisian has no doubt put in work schematically to overcome some of the issues the offense faced. Georgia, meanwhile, only got past Florida due to a QB injury and nearly lost to Georgia Tech. Yes, Texas will be battling a de facto away crowd in Atlanta -- it's mature enough to handle it. Too bad Bevo won't be there. Get Texas under a FG.

Gone back and forth all day. The Packers come in with a lot of momentum and a revenge mindset after getting beaten easily at Lambeau Field. The Lions are down key defenders, but they’re not the only ones shorthanded. Jaire Alexander and Romeo Doubs remain out for Green Bay. Getting this at a field goal is key; it seems like the number is coming down closer to kickoff. I’d probably lean the Packers +4 or better, but of the two more likely outcomes, I’d prefer to have Detroit at -3 (up to -125). Even if Jordan Love continues having success, Jared Goff can match him, and I like the Lions to get pressure on Love pushing him off his spot more consistently.

This game has a shockingly similar setup to Chargers-Browns, which saw Cleveland lose by 17 at home last month. While the Browns do have a slight rest advantage, the Broncos are playing with a lot of confidence holding a 5-1 ATS mark and only one poor loss (at Ravens) in the last six weeks. The defense is carrying Denver, but Bo Nix totaling 12 TD and 1 INT over the last six games has been key. The Broncos' most glaring weakness is their rushing, but they'll be going against a 22nd-ranked Browns run D. Jameis Winston should struggle against Sean Payton's defense while remaining winless on the road as a starter since Sept. 11, 2022.

The 49ers are desperate, which for most of the week had me leaning their way. It’s just tough to make a pick on such a weak concept when so much is working against them. The Bills are home in comfortable weather with the Niners missing Joey Bosa, the key weapon to combatting Josh Allen. Brock Purdy is back, which should help, but Trent Williams remains out lessening his protection significantly. Christian McCaffrey is not playing like he’s at full capacity despite staying injury-free since returning. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are missing for Buffalo, but Dawson Knox is a fine replacement at TE. Plus, the Bills are off a bye, while the Niners are flying cross country. That all, inevitably, points in one direction.

This game will likely be won on the margins as what are arguably the best teams in the AFC and NFC -- with the two best running backs in the league -- go head-to-head. The Eagles have a defensive advantage as they are able to stop the pass, an area in which the Ravens have struggled. Baltimore will probably have more success stopping Saquon Barkley than Philadelphia does Derrick Henry, but Jalen Hurts opening the offense and targeting Barkley in the passing game should help. This is a situation where I want the points with the Eagles, a team equally capable of winning straight up -- particularly given the Ravens have had two tough defensive battles in as many weeks.

Lock this in under a field goal. The Saints are playing hard, but the Rams have consistently taken advantage of lower-half teams in the NFL. New Orleans has beaten up on bad quarterback play but get exposed otherwise. This is a great bounce-back spot for Los Angeles' offense behind Matthew Stafford and his full complement of weapons. (Kyren Williams might have a big day.) The Rams should be able to knock Derek Carr off his spot plenty, and the Saints do not have the weaponry to keep up. (Don't expect Sean McVay to allow Taysom Hill to beat him.) Great spot for L.A. to change the narrative and start making a late playoff push.