This is hardly a straightforward call, but Seattle has such a substantial defensive edge that it’s tough to see how the Bears keep up unless Caleb Williams goes absolutely nuts (certainly possible). Chicago is giving up 24+ points almost automatically to competent offenses, while Seattle swarms passers and snuffs out strong run games. Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price will both return to the Seahawks’ backfield, which should take some pressure off Sam Darnold. This is the limit for taking Seattle, though a half unit would still be acceptable at -3.5. Williams rolling through the backdoor late is the concern, but not a big enough one not to take the field goal.

This is a disgusting matchup made worse by personnel absences. Saquon Barkley is supposed to be on a snap count, but it’s tough to believe he will be off the field if needed late. The Commanders are not the Cowboys, so the Eagles won't be playing keep up. Rather, Philly should be able to compete for 60 minutes against Washington, which is worse in most phases. I’d still rather have the Eagles defense, and outside of Jayden Daniels, many of their position players. While the Commies are off a bye, a touchdown is a lot to cover. Don’t forget, the “impressive” six-point loss to the Niners saw Washington behind 23-3 when San Francisco took its foot off the gas in the fourth.

Altitude is a clear advantage for the Broncos, but it’s tough to see where else they have a decisive edge. On the injury report, Rashee Rice is back, while RJ Harvey is out. Patrick Mahomes, even coming off injury, is more consistent and trustworthy than Bo Nix. I’d take Andy Reid over Sean Payton 10 times out of 10. Kenneth Walker III will be the most dominant offensive playmaker on the field against a porous run defense that should allow Kansas City to stay balanced – unlike last week. Jaylen Waddle is playing, but as any Dolphins fans know, he’s always one hit away from getting sidelined again. The Chiefs defense may be inconsistent, but it flashes and generally steps up when needed.

Not sure what it will take to back the Chargers, but it’s not happening this week despite bye-week preparation. The Rams are hardly fixed after dominating the Raiders, but they do have momentum for the first time, and they are not back home until the night after Thanksgiving. They should be able to get after Justin Herbert with ease, even with Joe Alt back. The Chargers don’t have the weapons to take advantage of the Rams’ defensive lapses. The favorites are averaging 9+ points and 100+ yards per game more than the ‘dogs. Despite sharps being all about the Chargers, I’ll take Matthew Stafford (even with half-bought-in Sean McVay) to get up and down the field with enough consistency to win by a touchdown.

It’s somewhat telling that, in most markets, the Bills are only favored by a field goal despite playing at home coming off the bye, as favorable a situation as a team could want, especially with their history. The Ravens have lost consecutive games, been an absolute disaster in second halves, and just got routed by the Bengals. Lamar Jackson’s return will bolster the squad, and even if he’s limited, Buffalo’s poor defense (now without C.J. Gardner-Johnson) should provide little resistance. Baltimore was one of the league’s most efficient offenses before Jackson’s injury. Despite the Bills’ offensive proficiency, they are playing close games, so I want the points, and I’m willing to pay for the hook.

Awful defense vs. awful offense -- a classic matchup on deck here. The Cowboys have not won at home in six weeks, and the defense is not getting better, but the Cardinals struggle to move the ball. Dallas should not have an issue doing that with its full complement of playmakers, and if Javonte Williams is still a key part of the game plan, he will limit opponent possessions. Arizona gets Jeremiah Love back, but he was only averaging 3.7 ypc. The Cards have already lost four games by 7+ points, and while they are somehow better on the road and have won four straight over the Cowboys, they are not going to get to Dak Prescott regularly enough to keep this close.

Two things can be true: The Vikings defense is phenomenal. The Vikings defense has not been truly tested. On Sunday, they will go against arguably the most dynamic unit in the NFL – on the road – and we will find out whether Minnesota’s 6-0 start is legitimate or circumstantial. Detroit's defense has improved with key players returning, and Kyler Murray has yet to either throw for 250+ yards or 2+ touchdowns this season. The Lions are always better on their indoor track at home, and this is hardly their first time facing Brian Flores. Even with their top-tier playmakers, the Vikings offense is far too inconsistent to keep up over four quarters – one of the worst for a 6-0 team in NFL history.

Two of the most surprising developments this season are the Steelers and Browns playing competent, somewhat-consistent football. Cleveland won the first meeting, but this is in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers are often dominant. They are on an 11-0 ATS streak in home divisional games and on a 22-0 SU, 8-0 ATS streak at home against the Browns. Aaron Rodgers is playing his best ball in at least five years, and the defense is real. I don’t see it giving up another late drive like it did earlier this season. Wanted this at -3, but the line never returned, so I’m willing to eat the hook considering Jaylen Warren should keep Pittsburgh on (Cleveland off) the field late in the game. Consider a live line play.

When the Falcons and Buccaneers square off, they usually play close games, hence the line. Tampa Bay may have destroyed Carolina last week in one of the season’s most shocking results, but it came with Baker Mayfield throwing for 64 yards. 64. Will the Falcons commit four turnovers and be unable to run with Bijan Robinson like the Panthers? As LA Knight would say, “Nah-nah.” Atlanta has its faults, but with Michael Penix Jr., it plays good teams tough and beats teams at its level or worse. The Bucs are being overrated in this spot against a Falcons team that has far more weapons – especially with Emeka Egbuka out – and a decent enough run defense.

Hoped the hook would disappear, but alas. Carolina’s 30-point loss was a stunner last week – just when it looked like the Panthers had found something. Now they are headed into Lambeau Field in primetime against a Packers team that went toe-to-toe with the Lions after winning three straight. Josh Jacobs back in the fold evens out a previously lopsided offense, which should create opportunities for Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft. The Panthers are, historically, a nice bounce-back team, but this is a tough spot on a short week. The best move is to wait and try to grab -2.5 or -3 as a live line, but we don’t have that luxury, and the Packers should have enough offensive firepower to cover the hook.

Are Cowboys fans or backers greater gluttons for punishment? It feels like a recipe for disaster putting a strong ATS week on the line hoping Dallas can win by margin, but it’s tough to see a different outcome. Saquon Barkley will boost the Eagles, but they are down two star wideouts and Nolan Smith Jr., which is not a recipe for success (for a team borderline ready to pack it in) against a Cowboys side facing a must-win game with major offensive questions. Dallas should be able to focus on Barkley and gain additional point-scoring opportunities. If Dak (4-0 ATS in road Monday Night Football games) can’t move the ball with these playmakers, the team needs a top-down renovation, including the coach.

Two teams that have won three of four Super Bowls (participated in all of them) square off in what could be one of the best primetime games this season. Kenneth Walker III returns to Seattle with a point to prove, and while Kansas City is down two starting receivers, Patrick Mahomes more than makes up for that going head-to-head with Sam Darnold, who is nowhere near the form he displayed the last two seasons. With Zach Charbonnet inactive, the Seahawks will have major problems running, which should allow the Chiefs to control the clock. Seattle lost games it should have won the last two weeks while waiting for the bye. Kansas City is still fresh off recent rest. Give me the points and Mahomes.

The Lions are officially getting Brian Branch and Cade Mays back, some necessary reinforcements coming off the bye. The Packers have looked great over the last three weeks, and I have little doubt that Jordan Love & Co. will be able to take advantage of this defense, but Detroit is far more prolific offensively than the Dallas team Green Bay dominated last week. The Lions thrive indoors at home, and with extra prep time, perhaps there will be some defensive improvements. Neither team has quality wins yet this season, so there are still a lot of question marks entering this game. The Packers will have a tough time holding the Lions down at home.

The Rams are easily the most disappointing team this season. Matt Stafford is playing like retirement is ahead. Sean McVay is coaching like the commentary booth is in his future. How else can you explain some of his mind-numbing decision-making? The Raiders did well for us covering last week, but the Bills might as well not even play defense at this point. Sitting 2-4 with three beatable teams upcoming (before a murder’s row schedule to end the season), Los Angeles can quickly reverse its fate … but that momentum must begin in Las Vegas. With Puka Nacua playing and a FG left on the board, this is a play. Do not take it with the hook.

Late decision here rolling with the Broncos as we have a chance to avoid the hook. The Cardinals picked up a huge win over a frustrating Rams team last week, while the Broncos have been a disaster offensively yet won and covered against the defending Super Bowl champions. They key for this move is Arizona’s secondary, which should make Jaylen Waddle a factor for the first time in a long time. If Denver can find some balance, running lanes could open up, and the defense can take it from there. The Cards have been terrible at home, and I could see something like a 17-10 game being enough to get the win and cover.