Notre Dame has been our golden goose (no pun intended) in the College Football Playoff, but its magic runs out Monday night. At full strength, the Fighting Irish cover this number; however, they are an injury-depleted squad that had just enough to get past Penn State but not enough to go 60 minutes with the talent on Ohio State’s roster Monday night. The Buckeyes have the sport’s best wide receivers and defensive coordinator, a run game that matches up and the advantage at quarterback. They clearly used the Michigan loss as an inflection point. Even if Marcus Freeman’s crew holds it down in the first half, Ohio State should be able to build a second-half lead and hold onto it.

Though both teams have impressed this season, the Ravens are built specifically for a hard-hitting, ground-based game like this. The frigid conditions will not affect them like they would other teams. The combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is seemingly unstoppable; Josh Allen and James Cook are certainly dynamic, but they are going up against a much tougher defensive front. Baltimore’s ability to sustain drives has not faltered since earlier in the season when it dominated Buffalo, and the combination of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely should pay dividends. The Bills are excellent at home, and while I disagreed with the line flipping, it ultimately found the right side. Jackson outplays Allen and the Ravens take it.

Lean was the Rams, which have won a lot for us. If you pick them +7, that’s a fine play. However, cold and snowy conditions flipped my pick; the elements are tough sledding for an indoor team flying cross country. L.A.’s defense has surged, but it’s taken advantage of flawed quarterbacks and injured offenses. Eagles OL is not going to fall apart like Vikings, and weather makes running – particularly short yardage – critical. The Rams will not protect Matthew Stafford as easily leading to passing game struggles. Stafford is 1-8 with 14 TD, 11 INT when playing in rain or snow. If Philadelphia sticks to its plan, its trenches should win the battle of attrition after halftime with a late TD sealing the cover.

Wish there was a prop for how many times the Lions will punt because I’m not sure it will happen more than once or twice. As impressive as the Commanders and Jayden Daniels were beating the Buccaneers, it sure feels like Detroit is an unstoppable force in the NFC. This is a large spread, but the Lions win games in dominant fashion. There is concern that Daniels could backdoor cover, no doubt, though we know Detroit doesn’t take its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. The Lions defense is still injured, but if can keep Daniels in the pocket, I ultimately like Ben Johnson’s offense over Dan Quinn’s defense, which is probably a year away from its own dominance.

Quite a spread for the Chiefs, which struggle to cover (particularly big numbers). Their 8-point win vs. Texans is probably part of it. Since then, Isiah Pacheco is healthier and Tank Dell (leading WR that game) is sidelined. Kansas City is also off a bye -- where Andy Reid is historically stellar, particularly when his opponent plays the week prior -- with starters rested for two weeks. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has improved. Houston’s offense is inconsistent. It's also an indoor team playing in the cold where Patrick Mahomes thrives (8-3 ATS). Mahomes is 6-0 this round (16 TD, 0 INT); he and the Chiefs are a huge step up from the Chargers. A simple Chiefs (-2.5) and Lions (-2.5) tease is a must as well.

Sunday night reminded: The better coach and quarterback usually win. Monday night, we have Sam Darnold favored in a playoff game against Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay in primetime. McVay and Kevin O'Connell are both 0-1 in the playoffs since 2022, but the Rams surged late this season with a win over the Bills. The Vikings have been mighty impressive outside of Week 18 and an earlier loss in Los Angeles; Stafford threw four TD and Aaron Jones was held to 58 yards that night. The Rams have match-up playmakers, a young defensive front and a massive experience edge. They’re also rested, which should get the offense in gear. Will settle for +2.5 here but plan to buy +3 (-118) with a moneyline sprinkle.

Legitimate toss-up. The Buccaneers have been terrible in primetime. The Commanders have only beaten one quality team. Jayden Daniels is a rookie making his first playoff start on the road, yet he’s not a normal rookie. Both rush well, but Washington can’t defend the run. Both throw well, but Tampa Bay can’t defend the pass. The Bucs are getting secondary help with Antoine Winfield, and their ability to lean on Bucky Irving to churn clock and extend drives should be critical. If the Commanders’ pass protection is not on point, the Bucs’ strong defensive front should impede some of Daniels’ scrambling. Washington is on an 0-3 ATS streak on the road, and Baker Mayfield has playoff experience playing well in the 2023 wild card.

Without Christian Watson to draw coverage, the Packers passing offense struggles. He’s now out for the season. Green Bay and Jordan Love have shown an ability to bounce back in second halves -- necessary due to slow starts. That does create dangerous backdoor cover scenarios. However, the Pack are 2-5 SU & ATS against playoff teams with mostly close losses, including to the Eagles by 5 in the season opener. Philadelphia is much improved four months later with a defense that has been on fire since the bye week. Philly closes out games extremely well with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, and it is coming off a half-bye, just like Buffalo. Taking the best line available here, but as a dead zone, take through -5.5.

The Broncos have impressed with their defense stout and offensive improving at the right time. However, they have one win against teams that made or just missed the playoffs (playing starters, the Bucs in Week 3); 0-7 otherwise with six losses by 6+ points. Bo Nix is a rookie starting his first playoff game on the road in cold weather. The Bills and Josh Allen have failed to live up to postseason expectations, but they’ve authored big-time wild card wins. With the line falling into a palatable range, Buffalo’s defense getting healthy, its offense rested and Allen on a mission, I’ll play despite originally planning to pass. Bills need to overcome early pass rush pressure and protect Allen in the second half to thrive.

This spread feels huge. Plus, history tells us not to discount the Steelers and Mike Tomlin as underdogs or against AFC North opponents. However, Pittsburgh has lost four straight by 13.0 ppg, fell at Baltimore by 17 and stands 0-4 in the playoffs since 2016 losing its last three by 15.3 ppg. Its anemic offense features Russell Wilson struggling downfield outside of moonballs to George Pickens. There’s talk of involving Justin Fields. Will it matter? The Ravens not having Zay Flowers is concerning, but they still possess far more weapons overall. Baltimore averages 100 more yards, 8 more ppg than Pittsburgh. The defenses are near statistical mirrors. The Ravens are 4-0 SU & ATS since their bye winning by 23 ppg (two against playoff teams).

Not sure I'd have taken the Chargers over the Texans at the midway point, but here we have a diminished Houston offense facing a surging Jim Harbaugh-coached team. The Chargers won three straight entering the postseason with a 9-2 ATS mark since Oct. 27; the Texans are 4-5 SU & ATS since Oct. 31. Justin Herbert is playing his best ball at the most important time. J.K. Dobbins is back healthy helping open the passing game. Conversely, C.J. Stroud has 9 TD and 8 INT over his last eight games with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both out. The Bolts being on the road for a third straight week deserves pause; it’s not enough to shy away from Herbert, this defense, Harbaugh and his staff.

After being on Ohio State all week, Texas started looking favorable when it appeared the line was shifting to 7. Alas, it did not. This call is ultimately about Jim Knowles. The Buckeyes defensive coordinator is arguably the best in the business as evidenced by his crew demoralizing Oregon and completely erasing its run game. The Longhorns have been explosive but inconsistent offensively, and I worry about Quinn Ewers facing a regular pass rush knocking him off his spot. This line is indeed inflated given overreaction to OSU's quarterfinal effort (should probably be -4 or -4.5), but 5.5 is in the dead zone, and I like Ohio State to win by a touchdown behind its explosive playmakers and swarming defense.

Penn State has been underrated all season, and this game is a legitimate toss-up. Planned to take Notre Dame as a favorite, but the line flipped amid a flu that ran through the Fighting Irish locker room. Still, its defense is on fire holding playoff opponents to 13.5 ppg. Penn State was similarly successful (12.0 ppg), but Boise State gained 412 yards (304 passing) only for turnovers (4!) to ruin their day. Georgia, despite the loss of Carson Beck, was a much tougher matchup given its play up front. Both teams are banged up. Biggest concern is Jeremiyah Love, who is active but wearing a brace. Then again, Drew Allar struggled against Boise (despite the margin). What is he going to do against Notre Dame?

Locking in the Lions now with the last of the -2.5s available, a number you absolutely want if you're siding with Detroit on Sunday night. The Lions are banged up and need a bye more than any team in the NFL. The implications of this game are massive, and I'm backing Dan Campbell's crew. Will update this pick Sunday afternoon.

Locked in the Chargers with the Bengals having the game in hand, which presents an opportunity for Los Angeles to earn the No. 5 seed with a win Sunday. The spread has since increased, understandably, and I remain comfortable with L.A. at -6.5 or better. There's also a tremendous teaser opportunity with your choice of late-game underdogs. Aidan O'Connell is a legit QB capable of actually moving the ball and scoring, but the Chargers defense and Justin Herbert should be gassed up for this opportunity. One of few games this week where result matters significantly for a team entering the playoffs.