Tale of two teams last week with the Lions coughing up a massive advantage at home only to barely survive, while the Bills rallied on the road. In both cases, offense dominated and defense disappointed, though Buffalo flashed more on the latter end with its new attacking style. Opening a new stadium will give the Bills some extra juice early, but that should dissipate as the game advances. The Lions do not perform as well outdoors, but the elements Thursday will be less problematic. Significant underdogs on short turnarounds in Week 2 generally perform well, and Detroit’s rushing success should keep this close, even with a banged-up line. Though +6 never came officially, you should buy it up to -115 or so, if possible.

While it’s possible the Andy Reid – Patrick Mahomes Chiefs are cooked, it’s tough to believe a team that won at a .800 clip forgot how to play. That happened in 2025, and it cost us dearly. Call it a sickness; I can’t quit Kansas City. Not yet. Not when Patrick Mahomes is under an FG at home in primetime. Kenneth Walker III is KC’s best RB of this era, and the WRs are all active for the first time in forever with Eric Bieniemy back. LT is a legitimate concern, but Reid is terrific with extra prep: 6-2 in openers with Mahomes. The Broncos have upgraded with Jaylen Waddle, but the defenses wash, Denver is on the road, and the line has been halved.

There’s a lot of belief in the Giants this year given its electric youngsters are entering Year 2 with John Harbaugh taking the helm. Meanwhile, everyone seems down on the Cowboys despite Dallas undergoing what might be a significant defensive upgrade. Given the manner in which the Cowboys can pile up points, even an average D would seriously raise their championship hopes. In his last two complete games against the Giants, Dak Prescott has piled up 582 yards and 4 TD with only one INT. Meanwhile, Jaxon Dart is in Game 1 under … Matt Nagy. Road favorites are tough to support, especially in Week 1, but I’d rather side with Dallas on Sunday night.

The Packers are going to improve as the season progresses, but in Week 1, there are too many questions. Kyler Murray is a serviceable quarterback that provides Kevin O’Connell with an additional rushing threat, and the star wide receivers are fully healthy at home with some intriguing supplemental rushing options. There is some concern with new Green Bay defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon knowing how to attack Murray, Brian Flores on the other side should give Jordan Love & Co. plenty of problems. This is a small price for the more composed team entering the season with fewer issues.

The Eagles have a decisive advantage up front in this matchup with Larmey Tunsil out for the Commanders. While Jonathan Greenard will not suit up, Philadelphia is still stacked in the front seven, going up a quarterback in Jayden Daniels who has only covered one of his last eight road games. There are obvious concerns with the Eagles: new offensive system, no A.J. Brown, potential continuation of Jalen Hurts’ decline. Still, the offensive line and Saquon Barkley are healthy, DeVonta Smith is ready to become WR1, and Makai Lemon should add an explosive element. We’re not getting the best number here, but 4.5-5.5 is a dead zone anyway.

The Cardinals should improve in 2026. (Not sure how they could be any worse.) The question is whether Arizona did enough this offseason to stand up against a capable Chargers defense with a refreshed offense under Mike McDaniel. I do believe Los Angeles is a bit overrated entering the season – the hype around McDaniel and Justin Herbert (aided by Jim Harbaugh) is somewhat silly – but Herbert finally has a healthy offensive line, and both Harbaugh and McDaniel are known for their Week 1 success. I was originally all-in with the Cardinals +10.5, but with the line coming down two full points, I’m going to fade the sharps and take the Chargers to win by 10.

How is Zac Taylor still the Bengals coach? This is a question I have asked entering Week 1 each of the last three years, and yet, I still pick Cincinnati in Week 1, and Joe Burrow always disappoints because he’s not prepared. Burrow said he is stressing urgency to turn that tide, but what’s more important to me is that the Buccaneers lost key weapons in the offseason and will have a difficult time keeping up with the Bengals’ prolific offense. Cincinnati went through an aggressive overhaul of its defense, which was sorely needed, adding Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen. The line has come off -4 and might hit -3 before kickoff … wait for that, if possible. I’m ready to be hurt again ...

The best unit on the field Sunday afternoon will be the Texans defense. There should not be much question about that. The curiosity is whether Houston’s offense can do enough to match up with Buffalo, which will find the end zone, somehow, no matter the difficulty of the defense it faces. The addition of David Montgomery is being underrated as he gives coach DeMeco Ryans (who is 4-1 straight up against Josh Allen) a bell-cow back that can run clock on Houston’s fast track and keeps the Bills off the field. Having one of the best kickers in a game will be massive for the Texans, too. I’ll take the best number on the board as this may well be tight at the end.

The love for the Colts is understandable, especially with the hook. Indianapolis got off to an insane start last season, and Baltimore is coming in with a new coach and revised offensive system. However, that’s precisely why the Ravens are the move. Jesse Minter should keep the defense humming, while Declan Doyle is employing a completely new scheme, putting Lamar Jackson under center and taking advantage of Zay Flowers’ athleticism. The Colts will be coming into this relatively blind, and while there could be some kinks to iron out for Jackson, I trust him to do exactly that over four quarters in a controlled yet loud road environment. The hook is gone, but this is unlikely to hit -2.5, so let’s play it.

Not sure the Bears should be favored by a full field goal on the road given their defense remains suspect, but the offense is so dynamic, and Ben Johnson has said they are going to actively try and light up the scoreboard. Meanwhile, the Panthers feel like a sure bet to take a step back from an overachieving 2025, and here, they are going in blind against Johnson with plenty of preparation time in Week 1. Chicago’s only losses after Week 1 last year came to playoff teams, and while the defense does not project to get much better, given the prep time, Caleb Williams should be ready to handle Carolina’s disguised coverages. Carolina’s patient offensive approach should not work in this matchup.

What I’m not about to do is pick against the Lions, at near-full health, home in Detroit to open the season – especially not against a Saints team that should be improved from 2025 but still has plenty of questions to answer. Even if New Orleans keeps it close early, there’s a real chance Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs (getting a full workload) and the Lions’ dynamic pass catchers blow this open in the second half. Dan Campbell is going to have Detroit foaming at the mouth in Week 1 after underachieving in 2025, and I’m grabbing the last 6.5 on the board, even if we’re paying a bit of a price for it.

Though Ohio State dominated Texas in the College Footbal Playoff semifinal two years ago, last year's meeting was not only much closer -- the Longhorns were the better team despite falling 14-7 in Columbus, Ohio. Arch Manning has only further developed over the last year, and Will Muschamp’s aggressive, physical, disciplined defensive attack should be able to keep Julian Sayin off his mark. If Texas can avoid blitzing and still get pressure on Sayin in that Austin heat, it will win. If not, Jeremiah Smith will get loose, as usual, and make the ‘Horns pay.

Figured this would drop given the disparate travel plans and contentiousness around the Rams arriving so close to kickoff, but their superior roster has kept this firm with the hook. The 49ers will be improved from 2025 – how could they not be with most everyone healthy and Mike Evans in tow? – but Los Angeles may be the NFL’s toughest out on a weekly basis, and it improved markedly as well, particularly on defense. Playing the number would have been the move if this reached 4.5, but in a game that should feature plenty of back-and-forth scoring, eating the hook is more palatable. Sean McVay has won four of five against Kyle Shanahan (loss in OT) with two by a TD or more.

The most substantial changes since the Seahawks and Patriots met in Super Bowl LX should benefit New England, which added A.J. Brown as Seattle lost bell-cow back Kenneth Walker III. But the Seahawks’ dominance of the Patriots was not solely predicated on roster; rather, Seattle had a decisive schematic advantage, and it’s tough to see that changing in 2026. The Pats were relatively lucky to win the AFC war of attrition, and while hype has reached a fever pitch for Drake Maye, the Seahawks offer a tough Week 1 matchup. Jadarian Price should be a fine replacement behind a strong offensive line, and the defensive front seven should cause problems for the visitors. The line finally reached the right number and price, so let’s go.

Already in a dead zone, the line may hit -5 before kickoff, so let’s hop on the Seahawks now and buy down to -4 (-115) if possible. The NFC Championship game served as the de facto Super Bowl, and nothing the Patriots did in the playoffs changed that perspective. Seattle should own the line of scrimmage and take a double-digit lead into the fourth quarter (eye the prop about three straight scores for one team), holding onto it by taking down Drake Maye repeatedly. Kenneth Walker III will take the pressure off Sam Darnold, and AJ Barner should serve as a safe target to the boundaries. (A tease with the under is not the worst value. And remember: Tails never fails.)