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Adam Silverstein
Adam Silverstein
Florida Favorite
CBS Sports' deputy managing editor, Adam has been picking college football and NFL since 2002. Born and raised in Florida, he has been covering sports since 1996 when he began his own newsletter and has not stopped following the ins and outs of the games we love. Though he will take the occasional underdog, Adam often looks for value with the favorites, especially after sharp money comes in and lines fall below key numbers. Since joining SportsLine in 2017, he's a strong 150-119 in the NFL, including 62-43 ATS (59 percent) in 2019. For Adam Silverstein media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Kansas City 9 @ Tampa Bay 31 | 02/07 | 11:30 PM UTC

Kansas City -3

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The line for the first home-game Super Bowl in history has that host team -- with Tom Brady at QB -- as a field goal underdog. That is no mistake. The Chiefs being down a pair of tackles is the only reason this is still at -3, and I expect it to be up to -4 prior to kickoff. Kansas City has not been a great ATS team this season, but it is 5-1 ATS when favored by six points or less. It has the advantage at QB with Patrick Mahomes (due to his youth and mobility) and at the offensive playmakers positions. The Bucs may keep the Chiefs on edge with their stellar defense in the first half -- remember the 49ers last year? -- but I trust Andy Reid (off a bye) and KC's coaching staff (where it also has an edge) to get the job done in the end and repeat as Super Bowl champions.

+652 21-13-2 IN LAST 36 KC ATS PICKS
+300 12-8-2 IN LAST 22 TB ATS PICKS

Buffalo 24 @ Kansas City 38 | 01/24 | 11:40 PM UTC

Kansas City -3

WIN

ANALYSIS: This line is right on the money at -3, which means there's no value in either direction unless you believe the Bills to be a superior team to the Chiefs, which I do not. When Patrick Mahomes is cleared, which I have little doubt will be the case, the Chiefs will be at -3.5 or -4, which is a difficult call given this matchup. However, at a field goal, I lean with Andy Reid and a Chiefs team that, admittedly, has burned me all year ATS. However, Kansas City is 3-1 ATS as a favorite of six points or less in 2020, and it deserves some credit as the home team and defending Super Bowl champions. This is more of a gut play than anything, but at a FG or less, I'm on the Chiefs.

+652 21-13-2 IN LAST 36 KC ATS PICKS
+126 9-7 IN LAST 16 BUF ATS PICKS

Tampa Bay 31 @ Green Bay 26 | 01/24 | 8:05 PM UTC

Green Bay -3

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The Packers were my top-rated team entering the NFL Playoffs, and while I would have taken them up to -4 if the line didn't drop, the fact that it's now a field goal makes it the time to jump. The Buccaneers are getting a lot of credit for the Saints win, but a road game in a dome and road game at Lambeau Field in January are two different things altogether. Green Bay is more consistent on both ends. It has the best league's best QB in Aaron Rodgers. It has a strong running game. And it has a solid defense. Green Bay has defeated three straight playoff teams by an average of 19.7 points, and it is 10-3 ATS this season as a favorite of -8 or lower. This line should be -5. Back the Pack.

+945 15-5 IN LAST 20 GB ATS PICKS
+300 12-8-2 IN LAST 22 TB ATS PICKS

Tampa Bay 30 @ New Orleans 20 | 01/17 | 11:40 PM UTC

New Orleans -2.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Did not think this line would slide under a field goal, but with the Saints expected to be without Taysom Hill and Latavius Murray, there is some momentum toward the Buccaneers. Let's take advantage. New Orleans has proven to be one of the best teams in the league all season, while Tampa Bay delivers uneven performances week to week, even in victories. The Saints defense has strengthened down the stretch, and they have their two best players -- Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas -- healthy for the second game in a row. This line gives me 2.5 points of value with a team that is on a 4-1 ATS streak at home with that lone defeat by the Chiefs. Unless the Bucs get a lot of PI calls, the Saints should take this.

+858 24-14 IN LAST 38 NO ATS PICKS
+300 12-8-2 IN LAST 22 TB ATS PICKS

Cleveland 17 @ Kansas City 22 | 01/17 | 8:05 PM UTC

Kansas City -8

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not enough for me to back off the Chiefs now that the line has dropped two points ahead of kickoff. I did think Kansas City was overvalued as a double-digit favorite, but it is going to be able to move the ball just fine. Lots of money has been made over the years trusting Andy Reid off bye weeks, and I like KC to put it all together in crunch time as Cleveland comes down off its high from last week. The Chiefs have been one of the most frustrating teams to bet on ATS this season, but I like Travis Kelcie to have a tremendous outing and be the difference maker in the game.

+652 21-13-2 IN LAST 36 KC ATS PICKS
+400 14-9 IN LAST 23 CLE ATS PICKS