It's telling that sentiment and money is heavily on the Chiefs, yet the odds have not budged. Such skewed numbers generally flip the line, but oddsmakers are bullish on the 49ers as better overall (when firing on all cylinders). Kansas City has the best quarterback, defense, coach and kicker. San Francisco has the best and most explosive playmakers. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS since Dec. 31; the 49ers are 0-3 ATS since Jan. 7. Underdogs have covered three straight Super Bowls. Andy Reid is dominant with extended rest, even more so with Patrick Mahomes, who is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog. How will Brock Purdy handle the most pressure he has ever faced (at least figuratively, if not literally)? Give me KC straight up, too.

The 49ers have been the NFC's best team, while the Lions have been a darling and fan favorite that has (perhaps over?) achieved to this point given their struggles both defensively and against top defenses. However, San Francisco has not necessarily taken advantage of opponents. As a favorite of 6+ points, the Niners are 4-6 ATS since Oct. 15, 6-7 overall. Those wins? Washington, Arizona (twice), Seattle, New York Giants. Fair to say the Lions are a far superior squad to those teams. We getting a TD, extra point *and* the hook. This will going be tough for Detroit, but it's 7-2 ATS on the road and on a 4-1 ATS streak. The Niners should win, but I’ll have a moneyline sprinkle on the Lions.

The Ravens have been the NFL’s most dominant team, while the Chiefs enter with the postseason pedigree and a quarterback-coach combination in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid that always gets it done. Baltimore has been excellent ATS; as a favorite of five points or less, it is 7-1 ATS. There has perhaps been no bigger Chiefs’ backer over the last few seasons than your’s truly, but there is plenty working in the Ravens’ favor, including weaponry, significant turnover differential and health. It was one thing for Kansas City to find some offense against Miami and Buffalo; it will be quite another to do it against Baltimore. The hook hurts as this could well be a FG game; still, I would take this up to -4.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense are starting to find themselves – not fully, mind you, but enough to no longer be a major concern. Meanwhile, the defense has been playing lights out. Plenty of folks are enamored with Josh Allen, but he’s immensely turnover prone in the red zone, and sorry, I’m not going to believe he can win a big game until he actually goes out and does it. Mahomes wins 70% and covers 80% of the time as an underdog, and he’s terrific in close games. Frustrating that this never bounced back to +3 for the Chiefs, but they are nevertheless the play in this road spot. I’d definitely buy the half point up to -120 odds, if possible, before kickoff.

The Buccaneers have largely been able to beat up on offensively challenged teams during this run of success; the Lions are certainly not categorized that way. They are undefeated at home since the start of December with a 2-1 ATS mark; the lone failure was last week to the Rams, a team that grades out better than the Bucs. Detroit won this matchup 20-6 on the road back in October, and while Tampa Bay is a far more cohesive team now, last week’s impressive win was aided by Philadelphia’s immense problems. The Lions will be able to get after Baker Mayfield and run the ball well with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Bucs have overachieved, but that all stops Sunday in Motown.

Tough one given how Jordan Love and the Packers offense has improved since midseason. Dallas was flawed and played its worst game as Green Bay’s O was perfect. San Francisco is far better across the middle of the field. It has the best RB in Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel can beat you a myriad of ways. Kyle Shanahan has won four straight home playoff games by 14.8 points, three of the four wins by 17+. There may be some early rust for the Niners, but the Packers defense is still bottom tier; it won’t contain these weapons for 60 minutes. There will be plenty of points, but the 49ers should pull away late. Buy 9.5 up to -120; 10 is the fifth-most common margin.

At this time of year, we’re picking every game the rest of the way regardless of the level of our convictions. It’s the NFL playoffs, come on. Statistically, the Ravens stack up as a legitimately dominant team, and they are the best defense in the NFL against the deep ball, which is C.J. Stroud’s specialty and how he has taken out so many teams this season. The Texans have been solid stopping the run, but the Lamar Jackson element makes that task more difficult, especially given Houston struggles to stop play action. Houston is banged up while Baltimore is rested and home, plus the experience of John Harbaugh and his staff is a factor. Even if the Texans hang around, the Ravens should pull away.

There’s no denying that the Eagles and Buccaneers appear headed in different directions. Philadelphia seems to be in disarray, but Tampa Bay has scored 24 points in a win at Carolina and loss to New Orleans over the last two weeks. A.J. Brown may be out, but the Eagles have plenty of weapons, including Jalen Hurts himself. The talent differential is vast, and while there may be some internal issues in Philly, these guys are professionals with many nearly going all the way last season. I find it hard to believe the Eagles will not regroup and get one win when it matters most. Look for -2.5 right before kickoff, but at +100 odds, a field goal is still a play.

There is a mindset that cold-weather games will automatically be run-heavy and low-scoring. As proven by the Chiefs, the best way to win such games is to operate offensively as you otherwise would. In that sense, the Bills are far more explosive than the Steelers, and Josh Allen is far more experienced overall and in this weather. Pittsburgh will try to reduce possessions and control the clock with a ground-based attack, but how will it effectively stop Buffalo consistently without TJ Watt? The Steelers D gives up a touchdown more per game -- and gets half as many pressures -- without him in the lineup. Wanting to play this game, the Bills are the side. See if you can get -9.5 before kickoff.

When the playoffs were set, the Rams were one of two wild card teams I thought could go to the conference title game, so it was disheartening to see so many agree with this one of the most consistent picks of the weekend. That does not dissuade me as everything seems to be coming together at the right time for Los Angeles. Yes, the defense could use some work, but the offense is full strength, healthy and humming with Matthew Stafford having a plethora of weapons at his disposal. There is going to be a ton of pressure on the Lions at home. Against Detroit’s weak secondary and young roster, experience should win out. Wait until the minute before kickoff to try and get +3.5.

Jordan Love has played some impressive football lately – especially without Christian Watson, who will be back this week – but let’s not overlook the teams he beat. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have gotten back to basics after a tough three-game stretch, and now they return home where they have been dominant this season. Dallas should be able to pressure Green Bay early and often, especially if the Cowboys get ahead, and Mike McCarthy is well aware that his team needs to take advantage of a young secondary on the other side. It makes sense why the Packers are getting love, but this is Cowboys-or-nothing for me, especially given their level of play in Dallas has been one of the best in the last couple decades.

The Texans enter with home-field advantage and one of the most impressive rookie quarterbacks in years, while the Browns have the rest advantage after most of their stars sat out in Week 18. Before that, Cleveland won and covered four straight – all as favorites. Yes, the Browns defense is worse on the road. Substantially. But, yes, Stroud is a rookie in his first playoff game going up against a former Super Bowl MVP in Joe Flacco who is on a 7-0 ATS run in playoff games. Stroud is good and is only going to get better, but this Browns defense is going to pressure him constantly. Cleveland is one of two wild card teams that have an outside chance at reaching its league championship.

Michigan feels like a team of destiny, but let's not overlook what Michael Penix Jr. and his offense have done for Washington. Kalen DeBoer is our CBS Sports Coach of the Year, and Penix has put together a Vince Young-like campaign in which he and the Huskies keep proving doubters wrong. The Wolverines will have success running, and their defense might be the best unit in the game, but Michgian has not faced an offense like what Washington brings. The Huskies are 5-0 outright as underdogs over the last two seasons, but we don't need them to win – just cover. Even if Michigan has a large lead, is it tough to believe Washington can back door? See if you can get +6 before kickoff.

The Raiders have been playing hard under Antonio Pearce, and while his chances of getting the full-time role are solid, that decision has hardly been cemented. It’s tough to back a team with Aidan O’Connell under center, but we saw the Broncos with Jarrett Stidham last week manage just 16 points at home against the Chargers. The attacking Las Vegas defense should take advantage of a Denver team that struggles in play action, and in terms of motivation, the Raiders at home should have that edge – for whatever it is worth.

The Cardinals have now pulled off a few surprising wins this season, but after each of them, they have fallen back to reality. The same will happen here against a Seahawks team that needs a win – and some help – to make the playoffs. Seattle has largely dominated this rivalry in the recent past, and there is so much public action on Arizona that value has returned to the line. The Cards remain a bottom defensive team, and at under a field goal, I'm fine with making a play for the better team this season to go all out with something to gain from a win.