The Cowboys have won three of their last four games with the only loss coming to an offensively superior Lions squad. That is not how one would describe the Vikings, which scored six points across their prior two games before eviscerating a porous Commanders team last week. Minnesota does have a ferocious defense, and Dallas will need to work through that. The Cowboys play much better at home, particularly on offense, and it’s tough to imagine J.J. McCarthy dueling with Dak Prescott, even with the Vikings having their own tremendous wideouts. This line has come down 1.5 points from its peak.
It has been 1,800+ days since Philip Rivers played. He’s 44. Rivers is a fun story, but what is going to happen when he gets hit by one of the NFL's most ferocious defenses? It doesn’t matter how tough he is; he’s been sitting on the couch, not active and preparing. Perhaps if Rivers had been through a training camp, a case could be made, but he’s had one week of practice. Jonathan Taylor may break a run. Indianapolis may step up defensively. Seattle should win this going away. Its defense has allowed nine combined points in two games with four wins of 14+ over the last six weeks. The Colts haven’t beaten a winning team since Oct. 19. Plus, Sauce Gardner is still out.
Don’t look now, but the 49ers might be rounding into form. They have allowed a combined 17 points to their last two opponents, and now, they’re coming out of a late bye with the Titans having surprised last week. Christian McCaffrey playing might tick this line up to -13 once statuses are announced, which we want to avoid. San Francisco’s last five wins have come by double digits, and Tennessee’s defense is not going to be able to make too many stops in this one.
Surprisingly large line for a team in the Lions with their backs against the wall against a Rams side that has gotten fat by destroying lesser opponents and played tight games against better teams. Detroit being down three safeties is a major concern, especially because Los Angeles may be the best team in the NFL, standing as a deserving Super Bowl favorite. However, the only quality team the Rams have beaten by margin recently was the short-handed 49ers. The Lions have their full complement of offensive weapons and should be good for a backdoor cover at worst. Moneyline sprinkle on Detroit, too.
Interesting line considering the Broncos have won 10 straight games and are playing at home, but it makes sense as Denver remains wholly unimpressive week to week. Still, winning is winning, and the Packers have done that, too, with four straight victories aided by a much healthier offense than it had most of the season. The Broncos have blown consecutive covers in excruciating fashion (I would know), while the Packers are 2-0-1 ATS over their last three. Green Bay’s ceiling is much higher, and it should finally scrape it on Sunday afternoon, especially if Denver continues committing penalties.
For some reason that’s tough to understand, the Broncos cannot handle the Raiders, but they blew a double-digit lead last week that the Eagles are not likely to give up in a similar situation. Las Vegas has lost seven games by more than 12 points already this season and should do so again here. Philadelphia is in hell right now, but this is a major drop in class with Vegas standing as the Eagles’ easiest opponent since an 18-point win over the Giants on Oct. 26. This is the definition of a get-right spot. The Raiders can barely move the ball, and Saquon Barkley should be able to dominate. Don’t see how the visitors score much at all.
Seeing this line a few months ago would have been wild, but the Patriots have proven doubters wrong at every turn on their significant win streak. The problem is that New England has gone through the weakest schedule in the league, and while it has improved massively, it is not as goo as the record suggests. Buffalo could not stop turning the ball over in the first meeting, yet lost by a field goal. The Bills have taken significant steps the last month, despite their lacking defense. They should be able to run the ball Sunday in the cold, and Allen is going to be a significant test for this secondary.
Look … at this point … we’re going down with the ship. The Chiefs have a significant cold-weather advantage in this spot, and while the Chargers picked up a huge win over the Eagles last week, that was far more about Philadelphia’s failures than anything else. Kansas City looked ready to beat Houston until a late back-breaking turnover, and the most dominant team in the AFC over the last few seasons now has no margin for error remaining. It has felt for weeks like the Chiefs were on the verge of overcoming their issues. This game actually sets up perfectly for them to do exactly that … as long as they can catch the damn ball.
The Texans are being bet up after a 10-point win over the Chiefs, but this is less about Houston’s run of success and more about Arizona. It appears as if the Cardinals have been fighting all season with close losses, but that’s been against poor teams. They have lost by double digits to the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks -- all since the start of November and all games in which they were healthier than they are Sunday. Teams do not necessarily need to have a letdown after a big win. Perhaps the Texans’ offense does not deserve a spread this large, but its defense (which has more interceptions than passing TDs allowed) does. Turnovers will create short fields and more scoring opportunities.
Plenty was made about Joe Burrow’s comments, some believing he wants to leave the Bengals. The way it came across to me? He’s sick of losing and imploring both his team to play better and Cincinnati to make some serious changes. The Ravens are struggling to get pressure, which means Burrow should have plenty of time to pick them apart. Chase Brown can run well enough to keep Baltimore honest, and the visitors have not proven to be capable with this limited version of Lamar Jackson. The Bengals have covered three straight, and if the Dolphins win Monday, they are live to win their division. Tee Higgins being out hurts, but Burrow can get it done with Ja’Marr Chase and whoever else. Moneyline sprinkle, too.
This has come down substantially to the point that we are getting some legitimate value at the Eagles, which have reached their lowest point. Not having Lane Johnson is an issue, but Philly's had an additional week to work on its run game. Let's not forget: Joe Alt is out for the Chargers, and Justin Herbert is playing with a cast on his non-throwing hand. While LA has a bunch of weapons, it's going to have trouble protecting Herbert against a ferocious defensive front. What happens if he lands poorly on that injured arm? This might be a last gasp, but the Eagles are the play here.
The Chiefs have been through it this season, and now, Sunday night stands as a potential AFC West elimination game should they lose. Kansas City’s defense is normally much more successful at home, and Houston enters as winners of four straight – all units it has been able to overpower. The Texans defense is immense, but they are playing their second straight on the road, this one outdoors, in the cold in front of a tremendous crowd. With three OL out, the Chiefs will be forced to run and work their quick passing game, which is generally where they thrive. This just feels like a backs-against-the-wall Andy Reid special.
The Rams will need a much better defensive effort than they gave last week in that disaster of a loss to the Panthers, but it’s tough to see how the Cardinals can legitimately compete against a team that has the weaponry to put together a dominant performance. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for Los Angeles, whereas Arizona is basically packing it in for the season. The hosts are too one-dimensional offensively, and their once-vaunted secondary has been leaking over the last few weeks. This sets up similarly to the 49ers and Seahawks games; those teams beat the Cardinals by about 20 points each.
The Broncos have truly struggled to win by margin this season, and the offense is not going to be good enough to take them far in the playoffs. However, the Raiders appear to have checked out this year, and they are going to get frustrated quick against the Denver defense. While this game was tight a few weeks ago – and Denver hasn’t won by margin since Oct. 26 – Las Vegas has lost its last three by an average of 16 points. None of those teams were as tough defensively as the Broncos, which still need to win games to lock up the AFC West. These teams have a point differential of 195 this season, 16+ points per game.
Try as I might, I cannot skip the Bengals in this spot. While Josh Allen has won 13 straight 1 p.m. kickoffs, it matters not who wins – just that Cincinnati covers. Buffalo has serious issues on defense, even if it is a tier or two higher than the visitors. The Bengals bring explosive playmakers at both levels: Chase Brown should thrive in a snow game against the Bills' weak run defense, and Tee Higgins is back alongside Ja’Marr Chase helping Joe Burrow, who is 3-0 this season and has never (!) lost a road game in December. Make sure to get this at +6 (or +6.5 closer to kickoff), not +5.5, but you may want to consider a moneyline sprinkle on Cincinnati around +230.