There are clearly legitimate questions about Lamar Jackson’s health, but the Patriots defense is extremely dinged up entering this game, while the Ravens got Kyle Hamilton cleared to play. Baltimore’s red-zone struggles are less of a concern as New England struggles defensively in that area, and Drake Maye will be up against the toughest defense he has played on the road all season. The Ravens are in a must-win scenario at 7-6, Derrick Henry should take advantage of the Pats’ struggling linebackers, and Jackson has never lost a game he started in the final four weeks of the season.
Massive line for an NFL game with a legitimate starting quarterback on the other side, but this simply speaks to the huge differential between these teams. The Texans have been absolutely dominant defensively, clicking at the right time with the playoffs approaching. The Raiders have imploded, losing eight straight games, including four of the last five by 14+ points. Will Las Vegas even score 10 points on Sunday? With Kolton Miller still out, its offensive line may not even provide Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty with that opportunity. Look for Houston to roll.
Arguably the best bounce-back team in the NFL, the Lions may not be playing up to expectation, but they will nevertheless be the more talented and composed team on the field Sunday. Not only are the Steelers missing multiple key players, they have gotten a bit fat playing against struggling quarterbacks the last two weeks. Detroit is being dinged due to recent losses, but all of those have come against tough defenses. The Lions remain a beastly when playing at home – even after a couple hiccups – and while this is undoubtedly a large spread, it’s still worth playing. Look at Detroit as a tremendous teaser leg, too.
Beyond the Broncos being undefeated at home and the elevation being difficult, Denver's defensive front should be all over Trevor Lawrence on Sunday. This will be his toughest test of the season right when Jacksonville is feeling itself the most. Whereas the Jaguars have mostly beaten up bad teams, the Broncos can win games in a variety of ways behind Bo Nix. The added hook is tough to stomach as Denver has played so many mind-boggling close games this year, but this should be a TD game by the time the final whistle sounds. Wait until kickoff and take this at -3.
The Falcons have frustrated all season, but with Drake London back and Kyle Pitts actually getting the ball from Kirk Cousins, their offense is too formidable to overlook against a team that refuses to try and control the clock. That means more opportunities for Atlanta, which will look to hand Arizona a third straight double-digit loss. The Cardinals have dropped six straight and 11 of the last 12, and they are on a 1-5 ATS run. Lock in the Falcons under a full field goal and ride it.
Beyond playing two terrible defenses, it does seem like the light is at least flickering for J.J. McCarthy, who despite low yardage totals, has 5 TD and 1 INT over the last two games. The Giants’ struggles against the run should allow the Vikings to run high-percentage plays and reduce turnover potential. This is more of a play on Minnesota’s defense, though, which should make life rough for Jaxson Dart all game. Brian Flores will be going at him early and often. New York is not going to be able to score enough points on the ground to cover a meager spread like this.
Figured the Cowboys would be getting points here considering the Chargers just beat both of last year’s Super Bowl teams consecutively. Dallas being favored here should tell you all you need to know as its offense is the best unit in this game. Los Angeles has been winning without generating many yards or points, and while it will have an easier time doing both Sunday, going score for score with Dak Prescott & Co. indoors is a tough task. Those hard-fought victories should pile up for the Chargers, whereas the Cowboys have the weapons to take advantage of a defense that is more beatable than it looks -- whether in the first or second half.
The actual pick here is Bills -10 (-110) at these same odds, and it would be worth buying to -115 if necessary. Willing the roll with the hook as there’s a huge chance the Bills completely blow out the Browns on Sunday. Cleveland has lost two of Shedeur Sanders’ three starts by 18+, and its defense can only do so much – even at home. Buffalo has won three straight, it's used to playing outdoors in the cold, and while it’s been up and down all season, it generally dominates bad teams with six double-digit wins already this year. The Bills can still claim the No. 2 seed if they win out, and they will not be letting up over four quarters.
This line tells us that Micah Parsons and home-field advantage, combined, are worth 8.5 points. Nothing else has changed since these teams met two weeks ago in a 7-point win by Green Bay. That game included Chicago running 16 more plays and possessing the ball 7 additional minutes. This pick could not be made until Josh Jacobs and (more importantly) Christian Watson, who combined for 3 TD in the first meeting, were listed as active. Advanced metrics have the Packers above the Bears in nearly every category, and while this will certainly be closer on the scoreboard than the first meeting, it should still be the visitors on top in the end.
This is a huge step up in competition for both teams compared to their Week 15 opponents, but while the Eagles have Super Bowl aspirations and a chance to clinch the NFC East, the Commanders are simply trying to get through the season without further injury. The question is which team is more likely to replicate last week’s performance: Philadelphia against Washington’s horrid defense or the hosts against the visitors’ top-tier unit? Just don’t see how Marcus Mariota – even with Terry McLaurin playing – has enough to topple the Eagles, which should be able to stick to their ground game and win soundly.
Even without Davante Adams in the lineup, the Rams are the side here. The Seahawks have won four straight at home but not been as dominant in Seattle as they were in the past. Whle this was a two-point loss on the road last month, Los Angeles has actually been tested since. The Seahawks continue to concern when up against tougher competition, and nearly losing to Philip Rivers last week reminded about their inconsistent offense. Adams being out hurts, but Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have experience overcoming such adversity, and they can nearly lock up the No. 1 seed and NFC West with a victory on Thursday night.
The Cowboys have won three of their last four games with the only loss coming to an offensively superior Lions squad. That is not how one would describe the Vikings, which scored six points across their prior two games before eviscerating a porous Commanders team last week. Minnesota does have a ferocious defense, and Dallas will need to work through that. The Cowboys play much better at home, particularly on offense, and it’s tough to imagine J.J. McCarthy dueling with Dak Prescott, even with the Vikings having their own tremendous wideouts. This line has come down 1.5 points from its peak.
It has been 1,800+ days since Philip Rivers played. He’s 44. Rivers is a fun story, but what is going to happen when he gets hit by one of the NFL's most ferocious defenses? It doesn’t matter how tough he is; he’s been sitting on the couch, not active and preparing. Perhaps if Rivers had been through a training camp, a case could be made, but he’s had one week of practice. Jonathan Taylor may break a run. Indianapolis may step up defensively. Seattle should win this going away. Its defense has allowed nine combined points in two games with four wins of 14+ over the last six weeks. The Colts haven’t beaten a winning team since Oct. 19. Plus, Sauce Gardner is still out.
Don’t look now, but the 49ers might be rounding into form. They have allowed a combined 17 points to their last two opponents, and now, they’re coming out of a late bye with the Titans having surprised last week. Christian McCaffrey playing might tick this line up to -13 once statuses are announced, which we want to avoid. San Francisco’s last five wins have come by double digits, and Tennessee’s defense is not going to be able to make too many stops in this one.
Surprisingly large line for a team in the Lions with their backs against the wall against a Rams side that has gotten fat by destroying lesser opponents and played tight games against better teams. Detroit being down three safeties is a major concern, especially because Los Angeles may be the best team in the NFL, standing as a deserving Super Bowl favorite. However, the only quality team the Rams have beaten by margin recently was the short-handed 49ers. The Lions have their full complement of offensive weapons and should be good for a backdoor cover at worst. Moneyline sprinkle on Detroit, too.