The Packers might be for real, and they have a chance to prove it on Sunday. Coming in with some extra rest, they would like to be healthier (missing two starting OL), but the Patriots don’t have their full complement of players, either, with A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson notably out. Matt LaFleur has his flaws, but he has an excellent cover rate as an underdog, and Green Bay has been pressuring the QB well even with Micah Parsons still out. Its secondary has helped to that end. Even with a rough run game, look for the Packers to cover their sixth straight. Taking the hook because it’s valuable, but would be fine with +3, and a moneyline sprinkle is worthwhile.

When all else fails … trust whoever is playing the Chargers. (Especially if they have a defense led by DeMeco Ryans.) The Texans found themselves a bit since changing play callers, and C.J. Stroud is playing the best ball of his career. Houston is coming off a bye knowing every game is a must-win. Los Angeles is ripe for the picking, scoring 15 combined points with no touchdowns over the last two games. The Chargers are 0-6-1 ATS against a starving Texans team that has a full complement of receivers with Tank Dell returning and Marvin Harrison Jr. multiple weeks into the system. To quote Boyz II Men, this might be the “End of the Road” for Mike McDaniel and a selling point for L.A.

This is a play on the Broncos with the line under a field goal. It’s tough to trust Denver or Bo Nix despite four straight wins (and covers) plus a 6-2 ATS on the year. They get outgained and outplayed most games … but the Broncos keep finding ways to win, mostly due to their defense. Carolina generally only beats teams that play poor defense, and Denver does not fit that description. Jonah Coleman looks to be for real; his presence could take a lot of pressure of Nix while opening up throwing lanes. This may be a natural let-down spot for the Broncos with the Panthers off a mini bye, but Denver’s pass rush should make all the difference.

The Cowboys are a top-down mess, but their defense is the primary issue. Good news: Dallas' opponent gave up 42 points last week. Indianapolis has lost its last four games by 14.8 points, and it’s struggling mightily. This spread was way too high, but it has come down to a reasonable number (-4 also fine). There are few teams I’m willing to back the Cowboys against anymore this season – lesson learned – but this is one. The Colts are an as-bad defense with an offense that can’t match up, especially if Jonathan Taylor is limited or pulled amid trade talks. Jerry Jones needs to make substantial changes this offseason; if Dallas can’t win or cover here, he may need to pull the trigger immediately.

Back in Week 3, I explained how I never take Dolphins games, particularly in South Florida. Made an exception for the first time with the Chiefs at -9.5 that week (won by 14), and willing to do the same again here with the Lions. Miami has covered/pushed four straight, including a shocker against Cincinnati, but Detroit enters with not only the best offense they will face this season but additional internal motivation to play for Jack Campbell. The Lions are also ready to exorcise some demons after getting bottled up by the Packers and Vikings. An alternate or coordinated play is a teaser with Detroit (-0.5) and Kansas City (-3).

These no-man’s-land spreads are always difficult, but the Rams should win this game by a touchdown. Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett are lining up together for the first time, and Los Angeles enters having found a modicum of momentum for the first time this season. The Commanders have covered consecutive games, but the Eagles win was more about Philadelphia’s ineptitude. Matthew Stafford is 6-0 SU and ATS against the Commies, and Washington has not won consecutive games since 2024. At 4-4, this is close to a must-win game for the Rams. Even if Stafford is more injured than is being let on, short passes to tight ends can keep the ball moving, and you know the Commies are bound to screw up somehow.

While there has been talk about the Bengals defense improving this season, it’s tough to see on a game-to-game basis. While Cincinnati plays better in second halves (making 2H spreads attractive), what remains true is that Joe Burrow & Co. must put up points in bunches to win games. Atlanta put up a stinker last week in the rain, but that was heavily circumstantial. Not circumstantial is that the Falcons turn the ball over a ton. Bijan Robinson may run wild against a weak rushing defense, but Burrow’s ability to charge down the field on a dime negates that advantage. If Atlanta can’t get him off his spot with consistency, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could go nuts against a bottom-third team in allowed passing.

This is hardly a straightforward call, but Seattle has such a substantial defensive edge that it’s tough to see how the Bears keep up unless Caleb Williams goes absolutely nuts (certainly possible). Chicago is giving up 24+ points almost automatically to competent offenses, while Seattle swarms passers and snuffs out strong run games. Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price will both return to the Seahawks’ backfield, which should take some pressure off Sam Darnold. This is the limit for taking Seattle, though a half unit would still be acceptable at -3.5. Williams rolling through the backdoor late is the concern, but not a big enough one not to take the field goal.

This is a disgusting matchup made worse by personnel absences. Saquon Barkley is supposed to be on a snap count, but it’s tough to believe he will be off the field if needed late. The Commanders are not the Cowboys, so the Eagles won't be playing keep up. Rather, Philly should be able to compete for 60 minutes against Washington, which is worse in most phases. I’d still rather have the Eagles defense, and outside of Jayden Daniels, many of their position players. While the Commies are off a bye, a touchdown is a lot to cover. Don’t forget, the “impressive” six-point loss to the Niners saw Washington behind 23-3 when San Francisco took its foot off the gas in the fourth.

Altitude is a clear advantage for the Broncos, but it’s tough to see where else they have a decisive edge. On the injury report, Rashee Rice is back, while RJ Harvey is out. Patrick Mahomes, even coming off injury, is more consistent and trustworthy than Bo Nix. I’d take Andy Reid over Sean Payton 10 times out of 10. Kenneth Walker III will be the most dominant offensive playmaker on the field against a porous run defense that should allow Kansas City to stay balanced – unlike last week. Jaylen Waddle is playing, but as any Dolphins fans know, he’s always one hit away from getting sidelined again. The Chiefs defense may be inconsistent, but it flashes and generally steps up when needed.

Not sure what it will take to back the Chargers, but it’s not happening this week despite bye-week preparation. The Rams are hardly fixed after dominating the Raiders, but they do have momentum for the first time, and they are not back home until the night after Thanksgiving. They should be able to get after Justin Herbert with ease, even with Joe Alt back. The Chargers don’t have the weapons to take advantage of the Rams’ defensive lapses. The favorites are averaging 9+ points and 100+ yards per game more than the ‘dogs. Despite sharps being all about the Chargers, I’ll take Matthew Stafford (even with half-bought-in Sean McVay) to get up and down the field with enough consistency to win by a touchdown.

It’s somewhat telling that, in most markets, the Bills are only favored by a field goal despite playing at home coming off the bye, as favorable a situation as a team could want, especially with their history. The Ravens have lost consecutive games, been an absolute disaster in second halves, and just got routed by the Bengals. Lamar Jackson’s return will bolster the squad, and even if he’s limited, Buffalo’s poor defense (now without C.J. Gardner-Johnson) should provide little resistance. Baltimore was one of the league’s most efficient offenses before Jackson’s injury. Despite the Bills’ offensive proficiency, they are playing close games, so I want the points, and I’m willing to pay for the hook.

Awful defense vs. awful offense -- a classic matchup on deck here. The Cowboys have not won at home in six weeks, and the defense is not getting better, but the Cardinals struggle to move the ball. Dallas should not have an issue doing that with its full complement of playmakers, and if Javonte Williams is still a key part of the game plan, he will limit opponent possessions. Arizona gets Jeremiah Love back, but he was only averaging 3.7 ypc. The Cards have already lost four games by 7+ points, and while they are somehow better on the road and have won four straight over the Cowboys, they are not going to get to Dak Prescott regularly enough to keep this close.

Two things can be true: The Vikings defense is phenomenal. The Vikings defense has not been truly tested. On Sunday, they will go against arguably the most dynamic unit in the NFL – on the road – and we will find out whether Minnesota’s 6-0 start is legitimate or circumstantial. Detroit's defense has improved with key players returning, and Kyler Murray has yet to either throw for 250+ yards or 2+ touchdowns this season. The Lions are always better on their indoor track at home, and this is hardly their first time facing Brian Flores. Even with their top-tier playmakers, the Vikings offense is far too inconsistent to keep up over four quarters – one of the worst for a 6-0 team in NFL history.