The most important Thursday Night Football game of 2025 arrives with an elimination backdrop. Dallas enters having won and covered three straight, while Detroit has lost two of three and only covered once since November. If you have followed me, picking the Lions at home – at any number – has been an automatic play. No longer. The hosts have failed to cover three straight at home – in large part due to failures on fourth down and an injured offensive line. The Cowboys have won close games over the Chiefs and Eagles, though both have come in Dallas. However, they are riding momentum and clearly playing better entering TNF. With the hook added, Dallas is the play with a serious sprinkle straight up.

Pulling a Costanza by going against my natural instinct and siding with the Giants – not only because of the Jaxson Dart return but rather how injured the Patriots are up front on both sides. New England has benefitted from among the easiest schedules in the NFL, while New York has been up against a gauntlet and largely fought in those games. The Giants are obviously better with Dart behind center, and his ability to extend plays with his legs should keep the Pats defense off balance. In what should be a slower game, points may be at a premium, and I’ll happily take 7.5 of them. Give me chicken salad on rye, untoasted, with a side of potato salad and a cup of tea.

Both teams enter this game off a bye, and the return of Patrick Surtain Jr. for the Broncos basically negates Terry McLaurin being inserted back into the Commanders lineup. Washington did play better defensively against Miami two weeks ago, but it is down multiple defensive starters in a game that should largely be contested on the ground given Bo Nix’s inconsistency and Jayden Daniels’ continued absence. Denver has not won its games by margin this season, but Washington has lost four of the last five by 21+ points. In fact, six of its eight losses this season have come by more than a touchdown. The Broncos defense will be the best unit on the field, and it should thrive over 60 minutes.

There’s no telling what the Steelers or Aaron Rodgers are going to put on the field in any given week, but it is clear that the Bills are thin in protection of Josh Allen and capable of being picked apart defensively. Mike Tomlin is 23-8-3 ATS as a home underdog, and Pittsburgh must realize by now that its best chance of winning games is to run the ball early and often, which would allow it to control the clock at home. Buffalo will be without at least five starters on offense, including two linemen, which gives the Steelers a huge opportunity to dominate the edge with pressure. The hook would have been nice, but at least we’re still getting the field goal.

The Chargers were embarrassed by the Jaguars before their bye week, which must have truly stung. Back at home, John Harbaugh should have Los Angeles motivated for a supreme bounce-back effort against a Las Vegas team that has changed offensive coordinators but not personnel. The Raiders struggle to run despite having Ashton Jeanty in the backfield, and Geno Smith is going to have problems against this secondary. Justin Herbert should be able to get the ball out quickly against a weak middle of the Raiders defense, which would negate Maxx Crosby’s pass rush. LA won this matchup by 11 on the road in Week 2 and should be more dominant here even with Joe Alt sidelined.

Late decision here on the Buccaneers coming in large part due to the return of Bucky Irving taking some pressure off Baker Mayfield, as he has badly needed in recent games. Perception of Tampa Bay has turned, but its only losses this season are to playoff teams including consecutive road defeats while banged up. Arizona is playing much better under Jacoby Brissett, but it has lost and failed to cover his starts. Now the Cardinals have to go to the East Coast with a thrashed offensive line against a Bucs team getting healthier? Even if Mayfield leaves the game, Teddy Bridgewater is capable. Wait until kickoff to try and get -3 (-120 or better).

The Texans only losses since September are against two of the top defenses in the NFL. While the Colts have flexed on that side of the ball, they’re 28th in passing defense, which is where Houston's offense thrives considering it can't run the football. C.J. Stroud returns with all his weapons for what feels like the first time. Houston’s run game is a concern as Indianapolis has the singular player in Jonathan Taylor who can churn clock and break open the game, but Taylor cannot do it all. Daniel Jones’ mobility will be limited, and the Texans should feast if he’s stuck in the pocket. Indianapolis is better offensively at home, but it’s played some of the worst teams. Good with +3, too.

I don’t believe in double-digit spreads, but I do believe in Joe Hendry, and I do believe in these Rams against a Panthers team that cannot decide what it wants to be week to week. In a one-month span, Carolina beat Green Bay on the road yet lost to Buffalo by 31 and New Orleans by 10 at home. Los Angeles has won six straight games (5-1 ATS) with double-digit victories against everyone except Seattle. The Rams are real, and they’re spectacular … they’re the rightful Super Bowl favorites entering the week. This might be a demolition. Even though L.A. is playing an early body-clock game on the East Coast, Carolina just got throttled Monday night on the West Coast.

The Bears’ turnaround behind Ben Johnson has been impressive, but there’s no getting over the quality of opponent – and defense – Chicago has been defeating during this stretch of success. Philadelphia is another animal altogether, and while it coughed up a 21-point lead to Dallas in pathetic fashion, it completely dominated the early portion of that game – just as it did Detroit and Green Bay the prior weeks. If the Eagles have any gumption and Nick Sirianni can actually motivate his guys as we have seen previously, they should win by double digits. The Bears have thrived on a massive turnover differential that Philly is unlikely to inflate, and the middle of their defense being thin is perfect for Jalen Hurts to attack.

The Bengals defense is terrible. If it’s not the worst in NFL history, it’s close. There’s no getting around that, a returning Joe Burrow will only make so much of an impact for this Cincinnati offense, especially if he’s not able to utilize his mobility. Not having Tee Higgins is certainly problematic, too. So why the Bengals? It’s simple, really: Lamar Jackson does not look healthy. The Ravens, which have failed to cover in consecutive weeks, were outgained significantly in a win over the hapless Jets, and Derrick Henry appears a step slow. Cincinnati should be able to stay in this game – or at least cover through the back door. It’s also worth teasing Ravens -1 linked with Eagles -1 on Black Friday.

This is a must-win game for both sides. In front of a national audience on Thanksgiving, the intensity should ratchet up even further. The Chiefs and Cowboys are each coming off tough, come-from-behind wins, but Kansas City has value in this spot. The Dallas win last week, while impressive, was a bit flukey as it got opportunity after opportunity with Philadelphia going scoreless for 41 minutes. That’s not happening with KC. The Chiefs went from -3 to -4.5 before kickoff last week for a reason, and they’d have covered easily if not for the odd early Patrick Mahomes pick. I’d take the Cowboys against most other teams in this matchup, just not KC.

The Lions’ struggles to put away the Giants last week likely created some value against the Packers, but let’s not forget that Green Bay was rough against New York two weeks ago, too, and Detroit has largely been dominant at home outside of a loss to Minnesota. The Lions defense is certainly a concern, as is the offensive line against Micah Parsons, but the Packers haven’t seen an offense this potent in 6-8 weeks. Green Bay has given up 27 points per game in its last four on the road, and Detroit is 7-1 this season when it scores at least 21 points.

This line would be outsized if Bryce Young were not coming off a career game against the dreary Falcons. Interestingly, over the last five games, Carolina has been better on the road (3-0 SU/ATS) than at home (0-2 SU/ATS), yet the game that most closely projects to Monday night vs. 49ers was Panthers-Bills when Carolina entered as 7.5-point underdog and lost by 31. San Francisco allowed 452 yards passing last week yet won by 19, and Carolina’s run-centric offense should limit its possessions. Five of its six losses have come by double digits. The Niners are a far better offense than the Panthers faced at the Packers, and Christian McCaffrey may go off. Don’t go past -7. Consider a sprinkle on the 49ers first half.

The consensus for Sunday night is that Tampa Bay has added weapons and is ready to get back to its winning ways, but this is a Buccaneers team that has lost three of four games and not defeated a healthy, winning team since Oct. 5. The Rams have won five straight and covered four of those; they’re also playing their second consecutive game at home while the Bucs are stuck on the road going cross country. Tampa Bay has allowed 36 points per game across its last two, while Los Angeles boasts one of the NFL’s best defenses. It’s telling that folks are heavy on the visitors, yet the line has not budged.

Everyone and their mother is on the Cowboys this week, and it makes sense. Dallas’ offense is tremendous, and it plays much better at home. There’s a contingent forgetting that Philadelphia is 8-2 for a reason, and it won this matchup 24-20 in Week 1 basically without Jalen Carter. The Eagles defense has only become more dominant, holding a similarly electric Lions offense to nine points last week. Nakobe Dean and Jaelan Phillips have a lot to do with that. One great showing against the Raiders is not enough for me to trust the Cowboys D just yet. This may be the AJ Brown breakout game, and while the absence of Lane Johnson will certainly be felt, the spread is meager enough to risk.