The Seahawks’ utter dominance of the 49ers and their defense only allowing 6.33 ppg over the last three games make them legitimate favorites, but the Rams have proven to be their equal over two prior meetings. Los Angeles is an underdog due to the game location and a couple late hiccups, but there is a massive experience and trust edge at coach and QB, and the weaponry at the boundaries is superior. Sam Darnold is 1-4 against the Rams since the start of last season. In those games, he’s thrown seven interceptions and been sacked 16 times. L.A. is not only the play getting points, it is worth a sprinkle straight up at +120 or better.
Happy to go against the grain, even if taking road favorites for an AFCCG in Denver is tough. Much is being made of the Broncos defense. Here’s what's not said: Denver has allowed 30+ points to three straight QB1s. Beyond Bo Nix's absence, the Broncos are without JK Dobbins; the running game is problematic. Jarrett Stidham has not thrown in three years; he’s coming in cold to an AFCCG. Let’s not act like he’s a tested veteran like Joe Flacco. He can chuck it, but what happens when he gets hit by an underrated Patriots defense? There are concerns about Drake Maye’s ball security; I’m betting that’s been addressed. Elevation and homefield have brought the line down. I will try to grab -3 at -120.
Does it make sense to fade a team that has cost us repeatedly and comes from behind to win or tighten games weekly? Probably not. Here’s the thing: This Bears defense is not good. The Rams should score at will. Chicago looks poised to pick apart the weak Los Angeles secondary, so this may fly over the total (49) despite the weather, which is likely much ado about nothing. This sets up similarly to 49ers-Bears (42-38) and Rams-Lions (41-34). L.A. got the poison out of its system against Carolina and should do well (look at its team total). The Rams have been the NFL’s best team most of 2025. Chicago’s magic finally runs out at the end of a stellar Year 1 under Ben Johnson.
Welcome to the AFC Championship Game, one week early. With Bo Nix down and the defensive quality of the Patriots and Texans, it should be smooth sailing to the Super Bowl. However, this matchup will be anything but easy. Houston’s pass rush should have its way with New England. Unlike the Chargers, the Pats can spread the field and be multiple in the running game. With Nico Collins out and Christian Gonzalez back, the hosts should be even stronger defensively. That’s not to mention home-field advantage and outdoor success. C.J. Stroud’s implosion last week was concerning, but even if he tightens up, the Texans have limited weaponry. If trading punts all game, the Pats have the firepower to break through a bit more often.
The injury-riddled 49ers were dealt another blow with George Kittle tearing his Achilles, and now, they face a team that held them to 3 points just two weeks ago. Jake Tonges should be solid in Kittle’s place, and Ricky Pearsall being active will help across the middle of the field. Sam Darnold popping up with an oblique issue is curious but not a huge part of this handicap. Seattle is too familiar an opponent for San Francisco to fall by a TD, and the Niners should have a legitimate shot to win this game (moneyline sprinkle!). While we are not getting the best line with the hook, a TD with Kyle Shanahan Brock Purdy vs. Darnold is attractive, even if the Seahawks are great defensively.
This is basically a pick ‘em, which is appropriate as the game looks to be a toss-up. It’s telling that the Broncos are not getting a full three points at home despite their strong defense and the advantage provided by the elevation. Josh Allen is the singular difference-maker in this game, and Buffalo enters as the more experienced team with a 31-7 playoff win last year (albiet at home). Bo Nix was held to 144 yards passing in that game as Curtis Samuel, activated by the Bills for Saturday, broke out. In their last two games defending starting QBs, the Broncos allowed an average of 30.0 points. Buffalo’s kicking game is a concern, which is why I want the 1.5 points.
Most difficult call of Wild Card Weekend for good reason. The Steelers are dominant on MNF under Mike Tomlin, who is one of the best underdog winners. However, they have been unsuccessful in the playoffs, and they barely deserved to be in the field. The Texans are far better indoors yet going outdoors – in the cold – in an exceedingly difficult environment against a team that fought for this spot. Aaron Rodgers has more experience and guile than CJ Stroud, and with DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh can compete. However, Houston has won nine straight, its only losses since Week 3 are to No. 1 seeds and defense travels. Rodgers is going to be pressured all night, and the Texans will put up just enough points.
The Patriots deserve every ounce of credit they have been given for an incredible season beyond a breakout quarterback and overlooked coach. The Chargers are also coming off consecutive losses, and they have put up some poor performances this season, especially without Joe Alt. However, Los Angeles is rested, and its defense might be the toughest test Drake Maye has faced this season. Jim Harbaugh always has his teams ready and hungry. Justin Herbert, for any criticisms he’s received, is the more experienced passer who should get plenty of opportunities to move the ball. Will sprinkle the Chargers straight up, but the hook makes the spread worthwhile.
There’s little doubt here that the Eagles prevail when the final whistle is blown, but this spread has ballooned to such a point that value now exists with the visitors. While the 49ers were put into a blender by the Seahawks in Week 18, their offense was without Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall, both of whom should be back Sunday. Philadelphia remains stout defensively, but it has faced few offenses of this caliber and rarely wins by margin against such teams. The Eagles will score some, but can they do so consistently enough on a per-drive basis to cover a TD against a 49ers offense that was on fire up until last week?
This was an admittedly tough call. Why? Josh Allen is 0-4 in road playoff games, Buffalo’s defense stinks, Sean McDermott’s job is likely on the line and Jacksonville has been running hot. Digging a bit deeper, while these Jaguars are significantly improved from prior seasons, some opponent luck has been part of their run (outside of the win over the Broncos). The Bills have been forced to beat and compete against top quarterbacks one week after the next, and while they have slipped some, there’s an experience level this team and coaching staff has that cannot be overlooked. The momentum toward Jacksonville shifted this line 3 full points. Buffalo’s running game and Josh Allen still need to get stopped. What worries most is Cam Little.
If the Packers were full-strength with Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft, this would be a no-brainer. As it stands, the Bears have a real shot, particularly given Ben Johnson’s ability to exploit mismatches. Green Bay needs to get home against Caleb Williams, which it has not been overly successful at achieving without Parsons. Many of the Packers’ starters got an extra week of rest, Jordan Love is healthy, and if this turns into a passing game, he will have the edge. Another way to play this is to take Green Bay with the first-half line if worried about a Chicago comeback. The Bears remain a turnover-dependent team, and that’s not necessarily sustainable – even though it has been to this point in the season.
Nearly everything went wrong for the Rams in the first meeting between these teams, and while that should give the Panthers confidence in this rematch – especially since they are hosting – it’s tough to see how Carolina stays within the margins. Los Angeles is a far more talented and experienced team, and it was dealt a wake-up call over Weeks 16-17. In seven games against playoff teams, the Panthers are 2-5 with all five losses coming by 11+ points (including defeats of 29, 31). The Rams are 2-0 ATS as double-digit favorites this season, and there’s a reason this is the first game of the wild card weekend slate.
Beyond the AFC North crown and an NFL playoff bid, this game could be a pendulum on which the futures of both coaches and quarterbacks are decided – as insane as that sounds. There’s rare pressure on John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, smoke around Lamar Jackson and retirement expectations for Aaron Rodgers. An all-out effort from Rodgers should be expected, but DK Metcalf’s absence severely limits the Steelers offense. How does Pittsburgh score? Jackson will be on two weeks rest; he went 18 of 23 with 4 TD the last time he was allowed to heal this season. The Ravens can control this game with Derrick Henry and play the possessions, plus Baltimore’s ceiling is higher, and it’s revenge-minded from the Dec. 7 loss.
Even with the Eagles resting many starters, they are the more talented team in this game. Not only that, they know that playing better overall will be required for a playoff run. In a similar situation last year, Sunday starter Tanner McKee threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns in a seven-point win over the Giants. Speaking of New York, that’s the only team Washington has defeated since Oct. 5. Philadelphia also has a chance at the No. 2 seed as Chicago is playing a game Detroit squad. With the spread hitting a FG, let’s play E-a-g-l-e-s.
The Lions are not about to go quiet into the night, especially against Ben Johnson. This is evidenced by Amon-Ra St. Brown suiting up. While this was not originally playable at a field goal, it has grown to the point where there is value with Detroit, which is not going to turn the ball over six times like it did last week. The entire team needs a bounce-back performance, and Dan Campbell should be able to motivate the Lions to a strong finish. Detroit won this game 52-21 in Week 2, but all we’re predicting is the visitors finishing within four points. Chicago is playing for the No. 2 seed, but it generally does not win by margin against teams that move the ball.