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We'll take the discount on McKinney, who had been priced around -150 until the last couple of days. The price move appeared to be spawned by Green expressing upset with McKinney, whom he viewed as an ally, accepting the fight offer. The seemingly ageless Green has won three straight at age 39 and has faced tougher competition. But we'll side with the ultra-explosive 31-year-old McKinney, who appears to be improving his technique despite his reckless reputation.

This matchup pits the power and relentless pressure style of Saint-Denis, against the hard-nosed grit and skillful grappling of Pimblett. Saint-Denis creates chaos and pushes a non-stop pace that can drown his foes. Pimblett is coming off a loss to now-champion Justin Gaethje, but showed incredible toughness and determination in a competitive fight. Saint-Denis’s fighting style is likely to force grappling exchanges, which is where I think Pimblett can thrive. Saint-Denis gets reckless with his takedown attempts, which may allow Pimblett to use defensive submissions and sweeps to end up on top. Pimblett’s knees, uppercuts, and shots up the middle can also do damage. I expect this to be a bloody fight, with Pimblett’s toughness and slick grappling leading him to a win.

The gritty and resilient Bautista has made an impressive run to the top 5 at bantamweight, and he's been calling for this rematch with Sandhagen, who handed him a loss in his UFC debut, for some time. Although Sandhagen's 0-4 record in title fights and eliminators illustrates his ceiling, he's settled in as a top-5 gatekeeper and this matchup favors him. He should use his length to stay on the outside and Bautista will struggle to close the distance for both striking and grappling. Look for Sandhagen to win a lackluster but clear decision.

The all-action Royval has settled into the role of flyweight top-5 gatekeeper and we think he's being disrespected in these odds. The one-time title challenger has impressive wins over former champion Brandon Moreno and recent title challenger Tatsuro Taira, and he battled current champion Joshua Van in an epic three-round classic last June. Kavanagh has shown potential but is getting a little too much respect coming off a win over a now-washed Moreno in February. Royval has delivered in underdog spots previously and we expect him to do it again.

The 35-year-old Whittaker is on the back end of his career and the former middleweight champion is moving to light heavyweight ostensibly because he can no longer compete at a top-10 level at 185 pounds. Whittaker was always big for middleweight so size shouldn't be an issue and he's taking on a veteran in Krylov who has been knocked out by lesser opponents. We think the price on Whittaker is a bit thin and expect the Australian slugger to win his light heavyweight debut.

This is a rematch from Mario Bautista’s UFC debut back in 2019, where he was submitted in round 1 by Cory Sandhagen. Bautista has made a ton of improvements since the loss, and he is very skilled anywhere the fight goes. I just think Sandhagen is still a more effective striker and grappler. That should be enough for him to win two or three rounds and defeat Bautista for the second time.

Cesar Almeida is a skilled kickboxer, but he needs to keep this fight standing and not go power-for-power with Damian Pinas. Pinas has big one-shot power on the feet, and he will also have the wrestling edge here. Plus, Pinas is 14 years younger. I would worry if this fight gets extended, but give me Pinas to get another early KO.

This should be a fun fight, but I do like Benoit Saint Denis to prevail. I think BSD is the better and more dangerous striker, and I also give him the wrestling edge. Paddy Pimblett is the more dangerous submission artist, but I don’t see him dictating where the fight takes place. Give me BSD at -142.

Conor McGregor is back! He is one of my all-time favorite fighters, and he is going to have more one-shot KO power early in this fight. I just don’t see how he can hang with Max Holloway’s volume, and I don’t think McGregor has a 25-minute gas tank anymore against top fighters. I think his path to victory is an early KO. I will take Holloway to avoid the big shots and gas out McGregor to get a late TKO win.

Cory Sandhagen dismantled Mario Bautista back in 2019, submitting him in the first round with a slick armbar. That was Bautista's UFC debut, and he has since leveled up, sporting an impressive 11-2 record. Still, Sandhagen is the craftier mixed martial artist. Sandhagen's rangy striking can be unpredictable and awkward to deal with. His kicking game also gives him the edge on the outside. Bautista is now much more physically built out, and may look to wrestle Sandhagen with his strength advantage. However, I feel that Sandhagen's scrambling and Ju-Jitsu are too high-level for him to get stuck. Sandhagen's losses have only come against champions and title contenders in the UFC. He will prove too slick for Bautista.

Please don't rag on me for this big number -- obviously, UFC is huge for our company now, so it's a bit of a new betting thing and options are limited thus far. Much more to come for sure. I think Conor McGregor is among the most overrated athletes alive. Truly. I mean, Jake Gyllenhaal took him out in the Road House remake -- should never have been remade but of course I watched it. I don't really think this is close, but it's the UFC so one punch, bite, neck-snap whatever can change it all in a second. To quote Peter Griffin: "Road House!" I'm getting this nearly $100 cheaper than my cohort Josh did. And probably keeps dropping with silly McGregor money.

This is a sold price on Damian Pinas. I make him closer to -250 in this fight. Pinas is one of the top middleweight prospects in the UFC and as is often the case, they matched him up with an opponent he should be able to handle early in his career. Cesar Almeida is 14 years older than Pinas, and he isn't a strong grappler. That means Pinas doesn't have to worry about takedowns and can keep this fight standing. While Almeida is a dangerous kickboxer, the younger Pinas should be able to pick him apart with his 5-inch reach advantage. I also like Pinas to win by KO/TKO once that line becomes available.

Reach isn't everything, but Javier Reyes has a whopping seven-inch edge (three inches in height) on "Wrath of" Kaan Ofli for this featherweight bout. Reyes, the only Colombian fighter in the UFC and one of the bigger featherweights, is on a three-fight winning streak but this is only his second in the UFC after a first-round TKO of Douglas Silva de Andrade in February.

Fiziev was the betting favorite in both of his fights against now-champion Justin Gaethje, and in his matchup against prolific striker Mauricio Ruffy. Despite losing those bouts and going 1-4 in his last five, I still feel that Fiziev is being disrespected by oddsmakers. The veteran Muay Thai striker has great experience, toughness, speed, and a savvy kicking game. Torres is a violent finisher with explosive athleticism. His flying knees, punishing elbows, and long straight right hand make him lethal in the first round. However, Torres hasn’t had a fight go longer than five minutes since 2018. Torres’ early aggression is a double-edged sword, and can leave him open to counter punches. If Fiziev survives Torres’ early blitz, he will take over this fight.

The violence-minded Saint Denis is on a four-fight winning streak, but two of those came against fading veterans Beneil Dariush and Dan Hooker, though his victory over Mauricio Ruffy has aged extremely well. We were slow to embrace Pimblett as a true contender and he proved unworthy of being a -300 favorite against Justin Gaethje in January. Even so, the pendulum has swung back a bit too far. We think this fight should be about a pick'em, with Pimblett's ground game savvy and durability enough to give the "God of War" all he can handle.