What could wind up as the highest total of the NFL season is, well, too high. Dallas' defense has improved dramatically over the past three weeks, and it squares off against an offense missing TE Sam Laporta, (probably) WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and scattered linemen. The Cowboys could take the field without OT Tyler Guyton, idled on Thanksgiving Day, and the Lions' defense is better than widely perceived, ranking 13th in yards allowed. All analysis aside, with a number this huge, the way to go is low.

How unusual to feel confidence in an NFL team when a rookie QB who was not a starter at the dawn of the season returns from an injury hiatus. Jaxson Dart has guided the Giants to both SU victories with a LB mentality that has juiced up his teammates. Without him, New York has stayed inside this number in three consecutive outings. The Patriots are dealing with an injury outbreak. OLT Will Campbell went on injured reserve this week, while OG Jared Wilson is out as well. Several teammates sat out Friday's practice. Going against a new defensive coordinator, New England and its makeshift O-line might see new looks from the Giants' D.

Siding with a sizable favorite that wins narrowly will be nerve-wracking. Of the Broncos’ eight consecuive SU wins, here are the margins in six of them: one, two, three, three, three, four. On the other hand, the Commodores have failed to cover once during their current six-game SU slide. While both teams have regained a modicum of health, Washington QB Jayden Daniels remains idled, while Denver All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II is expected to return after three games out. With the league’s 14-ranked offense, the Broncos should be able to find sufficient points against the No. 31 defense for a cover.

QB Aaron Rodgers appears in for Pittsburgh. (Though, wth A-Rod, one can never be too sure.) OTs Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown are confrmed out for Buffalo. With Blls WR Curtis Samuel joining them in street clothes, while WR Joshua Palmer and TE end Dalton Kincaid are questionable, the burden on even QB Josh Allen seems too great. The Bllls have dropped three road games SU, falling short of 20 points in each. Given Rodgers' sore wrist, possible inclement weather and Bufallo's shoddy rush defense, the Steelers can control the game on the ground. They have followed their last 20 losses with 14 ATS victories.

Minnesota's offense is broken, J.J. McCarthy has been the worst QB league-wide, which might have been compounded by a possible concusson Sunday aganst Green Bay. Whether or not McCarthy plays here, the Vikings' offensive outlook is dire. With Carson Wentz done, the starting QB role could fall to rookie Max Brosmer, who has thrown eight passes as a pro. He would face off against the seventh-ranked defense. As for the Vikes' D, it performed admirable Sunday, holding Green Bay to south of 300 yards even though the Packers held possesson for 37 mnutes.

Both teams regularly reach the 20s in points, with the Cardinals falling short just once and the Bucs twice. Each side got welcome news on the injury front. Arizona welcomes back WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and RB Bam Knight. RB Bucky Knight returns for Tampa Bay, while QB Baker Mayfield defied the odds and recovered sufficiently from a shoulder injury. Both squads have .500 records on Over -- 7-4 for the visitors, 6-5 for the hosts.

The Dolphins opened 1-6 straight-up, and there was speculation that coach Mike McDanel might not last beyond midseason. Since, Miami has won three of four outright, twice in convincing fashion, and the bespectacled boss appears off the hot seat. The defense was dinged for just 32 combined points in those games. The Saints threw rookie QB Tyler Slough into the deep end late last month, and he has managed to stay afloat. However, it appears he must go to battle without main WR Chris Olave and fading but still effective RB Alvin Kamara, both injured. The ‘Fins conversely, are due to get reacquainted with OT Austin Jackson, out since early September, as they shoot for their fifth cover in six home gigs.

When we hear fractured fibula, we assume the affected player is on injured reserve. Not only is Colts QB Daniel Jones active, but he will start. Presumably, a player who relies on his legs and has endured 16 sacks in the past four games might be limited against the league’s premier defense. Houston has registered more interceptions than touchdown passes yielded (12-10). While the Texans have notched three consecutive Ws with backup Davis Mills behind center, they will welcome back starter C.J. Stroud with open meaty arms. Stroud was lights-out in the three wins prior to his injury, with seven TD throws against one pick. Indy's all-universe RB, Jonathan Taylor, is unlikely to run wild. Houston ranks 13th for rush yards allowed.

The widely held take on Chicago is that of a decent team that wins tight games by, well, a healthy dose of luck. It cannot be ignored that the Bears have won all but one of their last nine games SU and whose stats back up the streak beyond a bit of good fortune. QB Caleb Williams has begun to live up to his billing as No. 1 overall draft pick. Philly managed a combined 26 points in two recent victories, then frittered away a 21-point lead in a defeat to Dallas last Sunday. Chcago welcomes back cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon off injured reserve. The Eagles should not be laying a full TD in these circumstances.

Burrow and Chase are back, baby. Perhaps the league's best pass combo return -- QB Joe Burrow from injury rehab, WR Ja'Marr Chase from a spitting-related suspension. Their Cincinnati team is likely cropped out of the playoff picture, but the pair's return and the chance to spoil Thanksgiving night for the Ravens provides motivation. While Baltimore is on a roll, its offense lacks the dynamism of past teams, in no small part because QB Lamar Jackson deals with assorted minor injuries. His rush stats last Sunday -- seven carries, 11 yards -- suggest he is hestant to, as the announcers say, "use his legs." The Bengals have a habit of heating up down the stretch. They can light the fire big-time here.

The Green Bay offense has hit the skids. With QB Jordan Love fighting off minor injuries, the offense did not reach 300 yards gained in the past three outings. The Lions, ranked fourth in offense and second in points scored, towers over it. Detroit's O has been clicking (with one exception) since a clunker on openng day against Green Bay. The Lions got more favorable injury news with several players questionable and/or out in recent weeks cleared for action.

The Falcons take the field without QB Michael Penix Jr and his main pass collaborator, WR Drake London. The Saints have not reached 20 points in the past five games and this week released veteran WR Brandin Cooks at his request. While Atlanta's defense has backslid after leading the league through six weeks, reinforcements from an injury layoff could help turn back the clock. The Falcons likely will stick to the ground -- and keep the minutes ticking down -- seeing as how RB Bijan Robinson averaged 116 rushing yards in the prevous four meetings.

Las Vegas’ O-line is battered and QB Geno Smth owns up to more interceptions (baker’s dozen) than TD passes (actual dozen). Yet we will adhere to a rule of thumb: play against a rookie QB in his initial start — especially one who was awful in reserve a week earlier. Shedeur Sanders’ excuse is that he took no snaps in practice prior to the last game. Fine, but throwing him in to operate the 31st-rated offense — and whose makeshift O-line has the same sorry rank for pressure rate — is a big ask. Maxx Crosby and pass-rush sidekicks could get to know Sanders quite well in the pocket all day.

The Cardinals’ offense has largely thrived with Jacoby Brissett running the huddle. It’s the defense — and the offense that it must impede — that informs this pick. Arizona has yielded 41 and 44 points in its last pair of (non-)efforts. The Jags have rung up 30 (in overtime), 29 (against Houston’s top-ranked D) and 35 in their past three. The Cards’ deck is missing two key contributors — premier WR (Marvin Harrison Jr.) and foremost RB (Emari Demercado). Bottom line: A team that has dropped seven of the last eight SU needs at least a field goal with the spread.

What's going on with Daniel Jones and Indy's passng attack? In the past two games alone: six fumbles (half of them turnovers), four interceptions and a dozen sacks for the QB. The trend suggests that the Colts will turn to RB Jonathan Taylor in the midst of a bang-up season, but Kansas City's run defense has been lights-out lately. The Chiefs' offense remains a force at times but is no longer scary. Besides, it might face a star-studded, versatile secondary that appears intact for the first time this season.