Micah's Picks (5 Live)
Micah's Past Picks
The Tigers come out of the All-Star break starting on the road at Texas and currently have a four-game losing streak after winning five straight. The Rangers have the playoffs as a goal and sit one game under .500 at 48-49, only 8.5 from first-place Houston. Texas also just got passed by Kansas City as the best under team in baseball with 59. Patrick Corbin is on the mound, and the Rangers have won his last two games, but that was more about the Texas bats performing well. He lost 2-1 in Detroit on May 9th. Reese Olson has pitched well in his last three outings, allowing three runs total. Tigers to win.
The Padres started 27-15 but now they're only eight games above .500, and they begin a 10-game road trip, where they've been 18-28 this season. The Padres have won eight of the last nine meetings, including a sweep at Washington last season. The plan was to go against Dylan Cease, but the number has dropped too much for my liking. He's 0-3 with a 7.31 ERA over his past three starts, and he's 3-9 with a 4.88 ERA on the year. Match it up with Michael Soroka’s 10.13 ERA in two July starts and a season ERA of 5.35, which should get the Padres' bats going. Washington has gone over 50 times this season. Just the over.
We got a huge pitching match-up in Houston tonight with Framber Valdez pitching against Jacob deGrom, but the side story is that the Astros have lost four straight after sweeping the Dodgers last weekend. That's the beginning of me liking deGrom in this matchup. Valdez gave up four runs in his last start, but also didn't allow any runs in his previous two starts. The Rangers lost 6-5 to the Angels in deGrom’s last start, but he won his previous six starts, getting the winning decision in five of them. He looks like he is back in prime form. The Rangers have won three of their last four. Texas to win.
Logan Webb beat the Dodgers 6-2 on June 13th, allowing two runs in seven innings, but he's lost two of his last three starts, losing to the Diamondbacks and the Marlins. The thing about this game is the Dodgers have lost six straight, and the way the rivalry goes is the team that is down on their luck gets a boost from the other team. In this case, the team down on their luck is the Dodgers, losing six straight, while the Giants come in winning four of their last five. Dodgers win, and when was the last time you got plus money on the Dodgers?
The Diamondbacks should have swept the Padres, but they ended up only winning two of the four games. The two losses were one-run games, and they left the bases loaded multiple times last night and couldn't bring them home. Ryne Nelson is the pitcher today, and the Diamondbacks have won his last five starts, with him allowing only five runs combined. We probably have two or three weeks until the Diamondbacks decide whether their players for a playoff run or sellers, and it would be a shame to break this offense up. If I'm saying it, I know they're saying it too. Diamondbacks win and likely go over as well.
The Pirates have lost six straight on the road immediately after they won six straight at home. They end their road trip this weekend in Minnesota for three games before the All-Star Game. Minnesota has won five of its last eight. We’ve got a great pitching matchup with Paul Skenes and Joe Ryan. Skenes has stayed under his last three starts, and in his last two starts, he didn't allow a run. The Twins have lost Joe Ryan's last two starts, even though he only allowed three earned runs combined. Don't expect a lot of runs, just the under.
We saw the Tigers and Mariners in Seattle at the beginning of April, and Luis Castillo beat Tarik Skubal, 3-2. That started a season off for Skubal at 0-2, and he still has only two losses. The Mariners have won Castillo's last three starts, and his last two starts have been brilliant as he's allowed only one earned run combined. Skubal is on another planet at 10-2 on the year with the Tigers winning his last six starts, and he hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts. Just the under.
The Diamondbacks and Padres have gone over the total four out of the last five times they played, and I think it’ll go over tonight with Eduardo Rodriguez pitching, who has gone over in his last four games. In his last outing, he gave up nine runs in 4.1 innings to the light-hitting Royals, which was a surprise because he'd been pitching extremely well in his previous four starts. You never know what you're going to get with Randy Vasquez, but a good hitting lineup like the Diamondbacks should have their way. The Diamondbacks and their opponents scored 10.13 a game. Over is the play.
The Cardinals had won five straight over the Nationals until MacKenzie Gore beat them 8-2 last night. The story of this game and why we're betting it is Michael Soroka, who allowed seven runs in his last start, and the Nationals have lost his last five starts. His last four starts have gotten way out of hand fast and easily gone over the total. Miles Mikolas has allowed 14 runs between his last two starts, both getting over. I think the best play in this game is the over.
The Red Sox have been the hottest hitting team in baseball over the last two weeks, hitting .327, when the second hottest team is the Blue Jays, hitting .276. The Red Sox have won eight of their last nine games to move to 49-45 on the season, 28-20 at home, and they're almost at even money profit margin for the season at -59. The Red Sox have gone over six straight and eight of their last nine games. Taj Bradley has given up 20 runs between his last five starts, while Walker Buehler has been all over the place with the Red Sox losing three of his last four starts and allowing 20 runs. Over looks like the best play in this spot.