Micah's Picks (4 Live)
The 49ers have won seven of the last nine meetings with the Seahawks....
The Texans play at Pittsburgh on Monday night in a Wild Card game, and the early forecast shows that it will be partly cloudy at 33° with the wind blowing at 7 mph and 11% chance of precipitation. That sounds like defensive football. Actually, wherever the Texans play is defensive football weather, as they've gone under 11 times in 17 games this year. The Texans have the No. 1-ranked defense, allowing 277 yards per game and allowing only 17.4 points per game. Aaron Rodgers has played better lately, inspired play, but I don't expect him to fare well against the best defense in football. Under is the play.
The weather is going to be perfect in Jacksonville at 67° and 10 mph winds with only an 8% chance of rain. Jacksonville went over the total in 10 out of their 17 games, and they should pick a fight with the Bills. This is one I'm looking to bet over 60. They met last season, and Buffalo won 47-10. Buffalo has the No. 1 rushing game in the NFL at 159 yards per game, and Jacksonville is No. 1 against the run, allowing 85.6 yards per game. Buffalo scores 28.3 points a game and Jacksonville scores 27.9 points a game. Over is the play.
I don't understand why the total for the Packers-Bears game is set at 44.5 when there are so many variables that suggest the number is too high. When they met in Green Bay with the full-strength Packers squad, which happened to be their last win, that included Jordan Love and Micah Parsons playing, the number was 43.5. And when they met in Chicago a couple of weeks later, the number was 44.5. Saturday, we have 18 mph winds in 34° weather and possible rain? Rough passing conditions. Love has missed the last couple of weeks and might be a little rusty. The Bears' No. 3-ranked running game chews clock off and stays under.
The Panthers beat the Rams in Carolina on November 30th, 31-28, as 9.5-point dogs, and the game went over the total of 44.5. It’s 46 on Saturday. The Rams have gone over the total in their last six games, and they get Devante Adams back this week after missing the last three weeks. Carolina has lost their last two games when they absolutely had to have it, and they still made the playoffs. The NFC South, wow, not a winner in the crew. I think the Panthers will score, but not more than the Rams.
This national semifinal game should probably be the national championship matchup. The storyline from the first meeting was that Oregon only got 81 yards on 30 rushes and was also sacked six times. Indiana took the game over in the 4th quarter, a sign of things to come from head coach Curt Cignetti, who has taken Indiana to a 25-2 record in his two seasons. Cignetti is a stone-cold winner. In this recent era of NIL signings, there is no better example of changing a program into a winner than Cignetti. The SEC had control of the college football landscape, but now the Big Ten is going for its third straight championship. I think Indiana is the team to win from the Big Ten.
I'm looking at the Peach Bowl total over 46.5, with Oregon being the key to the game getting over. My thinking is that Indiana will control the tempo, and Oregon's going to have to catch up. Oregon dominated Texas Tech 23-0 last week, but the week before, against James Madison, it was 51-34. They let the Dukes back in. Oregon went 7-7 to the over this season. Indiana went 8-6 to the over, scored 30 points at Oregon on October 11th, and scored 41.6 points a game this season, which was fifth in the nation. Over is the play.
We've got Miami (12-2) from the ACC against Mississippi (13-1) from the SEC in the Fiesta Bowl, and my main issue is that Miami didn't even win the ACC or participate in the championship game, thanks to losses at SMU and the home loss to Louisville, which also didn't make the ACC championship game. Why do we have conference championship games? Miami has won the last six games, and their defense all of a sudden came out against Texas A&M and Ohio State, but I think that team is somewhere in the locker room that allowed 26 points to SMU. Overall, Mississippi is the better team and will prove it tonight.
We've got an ACC battle with Syracuse at Georgia Tech, with both teams having five losses, and this will be the first road game for the Orange. Georgia Tech has a home edge at 10-1 so far this season, and they play some serious perimeter defense, holding opponents to 39% from the field, which ranks 25th, and 27.8% from the three-point range, which is 10th in the nation. My rating in this game has Syracuse 1 point better than Georgia Tech on the neutral court, but when we put the home court advantage in, where Georgia Tech gets 4 extra points, they should be a 3-point favorite in this game. Georgia Tech to win.
SEC hookup with Georgia at Florida, where the Bulldogs get a major test on their 13-1 season. Florida has already lost five games so far, and they've only covered four out of 14 games. Overrated? Georgia won the last time they played, but the last time they were in Gainesville, they lost 89-59. That's the danger and fear of betting on Georgia tonight. Georgia has built a strong resume so far, shooting at 49.5% and scoring 99.4 points per game. Florida lost its last game at Missouri as a 7.5-point favorite. This bet suggests that Florida is not as good as we think. Georgia to cover.
USC and TCU meet in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, and both teams have key players opting out for multiple reasons. Some players are opting out because they have their eyes on the NFL draft, and others are opting out because they're entering the transfer portal, and that's one of the reasons I'm making my bet on USC. Jaden Maiava is the starting QB, and he's coming back to USC. He'll be missing his top three receivers, but the main point is the starting quarterback is still there, while TCU quarterback Josh Hoover is entering the transfer portal, which means former Vanderbilt starter Ken Seals is getting the nod. USC to win by 10 or more.
We've got an Ohio Valley battle with Tennessee State (7-5), facing Tennessee Tech, which is 6-7 on the season. This is an odd moment for Tennessee Tech because they're the favorite, and the last time they were favored in a game, they were -3.5 against West Georgia and lost 61-59 at home. They lost their last game to Tennessee-Martin as a 2-point dog, and they lost 86-62 at home. After losing at Tennessee on November 20th, Tennessee State has won five of its last seven games, including the win at UNLV as 13-point underdogs. Tennessee State should be favored in this game, so I'm taking them to win.