Thomas's Picks (2 Live)
Thomas's Past Picks
No one is more down on John Calipari than me but this feels like a good buy low spot on the Hogs. They match up pretty well with Missouri, all things considered. One of Arkansas' biggest weaknesses is offensive rebounding but Missouri can't really take advantage. The Tigers rank 269th in defensive rebounding percentage. Missouri also lives at the free throw line and Arkansas fouls at a below-average rate. Might regret it but I I make Missouri -4 at home, so there is some value taking the Hogs at +6 or more.
The Tigers will be playing their second game without star Johni Broome after easily defeating Mississippi State. However, Georgia is built to give Auburn problems without Broome in the lineup. The Bulldogs are one of the biggest teams in the country and Georgia uses that size well. UGA is an elite offensive rebounding team and turns extra opportunities into baskets, ranking No. 2 in second-chance conversion percentage. Auburn’s defense ranks 190th in that category and that was with Brome’s 10.7 rebounds in the lineup. The Tigers are 2-1 in true road games. Auburn lost to Duke, beat Texas by five and South Carolina by three. It’s not easy to blow teams out on the road in the SEC. Take UGA +7 or more.
No CBB picks tonight, so how about one in the NBA? The Thunder and Cavs meet for the second time in a week with Cleveland winning at home on Jan. 8, 129-122. I like OKC to even things up in the rematch. No Isaiah Hartenstein tonight for the Thunder but OKC has a +11.7 point differential when both Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren aren't in the lineup. The Thunder have won 18 of 19 with the only loss coming against the Cavs. They have also been a covering machine over that time, going 16-2-1 ATS. OKC hasn't lost at home since Nov. 17. I don't see that streak ending on Thursday. I took the ML but also like OKC on the spread at -2 or less.
Maybe I'm too down on Florida State but I make Pitt -4 on the road. The Panthers four losses have all come against KenPom Top 30 teams. Pitt also has good wins over Ohio State and West Virginia and they beat up on inferior opponents. Florida State's best win this season came over Syracuse. If you have watched Syracuse play, you know that's not a good thing. I expect a competitive game here but Pitt's defense and ability to get to the free throw line against an FSU team that fouls a lot is the difference. Try to get the Panthers at -3 or less.
I’m going to sell high on Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are just 1-3 away from home this season and have lost both of their true road games to Michigan and Wisconsin. One of my betting strategies is to fade teams on the road in conference play that rank 90th or higher in defensive efficiency. The Hawkeyes rank 96th and allow an average 91.5 points away from Carver Hawkeye Arena. USC is starting to play better in Eric Musselman’s first season, winning five of their last seven games. The Trojans lost at home to Michigan 85-74 in a game that was closer than the final score suggests. I like USC at anything under -3.
The Rams were one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending tight ends during the regular season, allowing an average of 6.2 receptions and 64.8 yards per game to the position. Eleven tight ends topped 40 yards against the Rams this year. Hockenson had a nightmare game versus Detroit but had gone over this number in three of four before that bad outing by the Vikings' offense. I expect Minnesota's offense to bounce back overall this week. Look for Hockenson to have a big role in a plus matchup.
I'm taking a shot with Kentucky here with the line at +6. The Wildcats struggle defensively but are elite on the offensive end of the court and they don’t turn the ball over, which is important against Mississippi State’s defense. The Wildcats also have the recipe to exploit the Bulldogs’ biggest defensive liability: Guarding the three-point line. Mississippi State enters Saturday’s game ranked 159th in three-point percentage defense. Kentucky doesn’t live and die by the three but does rank 104th in three-point attempts per game. Kentucky's defense is bad and there is a lot of love for Mississippi State today. I just think the line is too high.
I'm going against the line movement in this game and taking the Cardinals ML for a half unit. Lamar presses at one of the highest rates in CBB, while Austin ranks dead last in the country in turnover percentage and 355th in steal percentage. The Cardinals also rank 22nd in converting steals into points. I don't play many moneylines but once this went below -170, there is simply too much value for me to pass up. I make Lamar -270. I also don't hate the Cardinals -3.5 if you prefer to take the spread instead.
What is Penn State's best win this year? Minnesota? SMU? Boise State? The Nittany Lions took advantage of a favorable draw but I think their run ends on Thursday, especially if star defensive end Abdul Carter can't play. I’m still not buying Drew Allar and Penn State’s passing game against a good defense that can pressure the quarterback. I like the matchup for Notre Dame. I'll take the Irish to grind out a win.
I like this spot for Arkansas after getting blasted at Tennessee. Think the Hogs can get out in transition on Ole Miss. I worry a bit about Arkansas turning the ball over but once the line went to 2.5 at FanDuel, I hit it. I like the Hogs if you can get -3 or less. If you get -3.5 or -4, make it a half unit play. Anything over -4 is a pass.
I love this spot for UCLA. Michigan is traveling to the West Coast for the second time in four days after defeating USC over the weekend. UCLA returns home following a loss to Nebraska and I like the matchup. Michigan can be sloppy with the basketball and the Bruins rank No. 1 in turnover percentage. Michigan has scored over 80 points in six straight games but they haven't seen anything like UCLA's vice grip defense. Eric Dailey Jr. missed the loss to Nebraska but it sounds like it was a one-game absence. The Bruins don't shoot free throws well so hard cutoff at -3. Try to get -2 or less.
I think this line is a little off. I make Kentucky -1 here. I see some value taking Georgia over a possession at home. Georgia's biggest issue is turning the ball over but Kentucky can't really take advantage. The Wildcats rank 319th in turnover percentage. Kentucky has also played just one true road game and lost to Clemson. Not sure if Kentucky's defense is good enough to lay points on the road. I like Georgia at +3 or more.
I missed the opener of Florida -1.5 so I'm going to grab the moneyline instead. I like this spot for the Gators. We went against them on Saturday and I'm trying for a little Florida Double Bubble here. The Gators are one of the few teams that can compete with Tennessee on the boards. If Florida limits second-chance opportunities, I think they win. You might get a better number than me if you wait and we see Tennessee money come in. It won't surprise me but I'm comfortable taking the -134 in case the line goes past -3. I would take the Florida ML or the spread if it drops to -2.