Thomas Casale
Casale on Campus
A frequent guest on national radio and TV shows to discuss college sports, Tom has been betting -- and winning -- for more than 30 years. He sets his own lines for each game, then looks at the metrics to see where he can find an edge in the number. Over the past four college basketball seasons, Tom is 470-290 (62 percent) -- all publicly documented. He joined SportsLine in early 2024 and has gone 157-96 in college basketball, returning $5,098 to $100 players. When the SportsLine Discord launched in November 2024, Tom became a constant presence there, releasing plays early and answering questions from subscribers. He has released 47 CBB plays exclusively in the Discord, going 33-14 for a profit of 20.82 units. You can find his bets only on SportsLine and in the SportsLine Discord. In addition, Tom produces in-depth analysis on college basketball and college football that goes way beyond game picks. He is a frequent guest on CBS Sports HQ and "Early Edge." Casale previously worked for the Action Network and theScore as an editor and analyst. He also co-hosted the BetQL U college basketball podcast with Eli Hershkovich. Always looking to beat the odds, Thomas turned his two sons into long snappers so they can get scholarships and attend college for free. For Thomas Casale media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Thomas's Picks
Is Virginia overvalued coming off its 11-3 season?...
Is this Matt Rhule's most talented team at Nebraska?...
This is a sold price on Damian Pinas. I make him closer to -250 in this fight. Pinas is one of the top middleweight prospects in the UFC and as is often the case, they matched him up with an opponent he should be able to handle early in his career. Cesar Almeida is 14 years older than Pinas, and he isn't a strong grappler. That means Pinas doesn't have to worry about takedowns and can keep this fight standing. While Almeida is a dangerous kickboxer, the younger Pinas should be able to pick him apart with his 5-inch reach advantage. I also like Pinas to win by KO/TKO once that line becomes available.
Merrill Kelly is coming off a solid outing against the Brewers, but he has gone over this total in seven of his last nine starts. The great thing about Kelly is despite his struggles this season, he still pitches deeper into games. Kelly has gone at least 6.0 innings in eight of his last 11 starts. I like the Padres to record at least six hits off Kelly tonight for a half unit.
I'm going with the low-hanging fruit Tuesday by backing the best team in MLB on the run line. Michael Lorenzen gets the call for Colorado. The biggest issue, aside from Lorenzen's 6.91 ERA, is that he's gone past 5.2 innings just once this season. That means the Dodgers' bats not only get to face a below-average starting pitcher but will likely feast on the NL's second-worst bullpen for a few innings. Justin Wrobleski has been strong for LA this season, and he held Colorado to only one run over 7.0 innings in April. The Dodgers have won eight of the last 10 meetings, covering the run line seven times. If Wrobleski gives us 6.0 solid innings tonight, we should be in good shape.
I went over 4.5 hits in Shane Bieber's season debut and that cashed easily. Today I'm going over Bieber 2.5 earned runs allowed. The former Cy Young winner struggled with a 6.88 ERA in his rehab starts and that carried over to his outing against the Astros, where he gave up nine hits and four runs in just 3.2 innings. Even more alarming is that Bieber has allowed seven home runs in 21 Minor/MLB innings this season. His velocity is down and I don't think all his issues are going to get fixed after only one start. I'll take over 2.5 earned runs at plus money for a Half Unit.
I'm surprised we can get Javier Reyes at -155. I expected him to be around -180 for this fight. Reyes is a skilled striker who has made short work of his last two opponents, stopping each in Round 1. Kaan Ofli is 2-2 in his last four fights, although a lot of people (including me) thought he should have lost a decision to Yi Zha his last time out. Look for Reyes to use his seven-inch reach advantage to control the fight with his striking and cruise to a convincing decision win.
I'm going to fade Shane Bieber today, who is making his first start of the season after dealing with elbow inflammation. Bieber didn't look good in his rehab starts, allowing 24 hits and 13 runs over 15 innings. Rehab outings don't always mean much because pitchers are working on different things, but it could take Bieber a couple of starts to round into form. I'll put a Half Unit on Bieber giving up at least five hits Tuesday.
I like this matchup for the A's today with Gage Jump on the mound. Jump has allowed just four runs over his last three outings (18.1 innings) with the A's winning all three. Jose Soriano is off his best performance of the season against Tampa Bay but he sported a 5.28 ERA in his previous eight outings. That start was also cut short because of chest tightness and leg soreness. If Soriano gets the call tonight, he could be on a short leash, especially considering the Angels might deal him before the trade deadline. Both teams have bad bullpens, but I like Jump to pitch deeper into the game, whether it's Soriano or someone else. I'll back the A's for a Half Unit.
Diego Lopes is coming off two losses to Alexander Volkanovski in his last three fights but I see Steve Garcia being a better matchup for him. Both fighters are dangerous strikers. The difference is Lopes is a much bigger threat on the ground with 12 career submissions. Lopes has shown to be an easy target at times and that is a concern against a skilled striker like Garcia. However, Lopes has beaten top featherweight competition outside of Volkanovski, and he has more paths to victory. I like Lopes -150 on the ML and +420 to win by submission.
The Nationals have been one of the surprises in MLB this season and took Game 1 over the Giants 4-3 on Monday. I like Washington again on Tuesday with Adrian Houser on the mound for San Francisco tonight. The Nats pounded Houser for seven hits and five runs back in April and he hasn't reached the 5th inning in his last three starts. That should allow Washington to feast on the vulnerable Giants' bullpen. The Nats counter with lefty Andrew Alvarez, who sports a 2.25 ERA in his six career starts. I'd back Washington at anything -110 or better tonight.
This line has moved towards Gabriel Bonfim over the last 48 hours and it makes sense. Bonfirm is 19-1, a strong finisher, and Belal Muhammad has lost two straight fights. However, I'm still backing the veteran at -110. This fight is at the Apex where the smaller octagon favors Muhammad, who is an elite grappler. Bonfirm's path to victory is to keep his distance and hurt Muhammad with kicks and strikes. The problem is Muhammad is a pro at controlling his opponents in clinches and wearing them down against the cage. Bonfirm has shown a tendency to tire after the first couple of rounds, while Muhammad is known for his stamina. I expect the veteran to grind out a decision win in the main event.
The Yankees are without Aaron Judge and while it's obvious he is a huge loss, it could be even bigger on Friday night. Judge has owned Boston starter Sonny Gray, batting .417 against him in his career. Gray has allowed one run or less in four of his last five starts and not surprisingly, the Red Sox are 4-1 in those games. With Gray pitching well and Ryan Weathers allowing five runs in two of his last three outings, I'll take the +125 with Boston.
Getting this total at six is a bit of an overreaction to Game 1's 5-4 score. Carolina has allowed more than two goals just twice in 14 playoff games, and both of those came in the first game of a series after a layoff. I also expect Canes' goaltender Frederik Anderson to get back into form after a rare off night where he allowed five goals on 23 shots. I see more of a low-scoring grinder on Thursday between the two top defenses in the playoffs.
I'm backing Vegas to get the sweep tonight. This game is being priced like the Golden Knights haven't dominated the first three games. I think it should be closer to -115. Vegas goalie Carter Hart has been a wall with a .942 save percentage in the series. It's hard to believe but the vaunted Colorado offense have just four goals at full strength in the first three games. The Avalanche also has some key players banged up, including star Nathan MacKinnon, who is dealing with a lower body injury. The Vegas' defense has been elite in the playoffs and I expect that to continue in Game 4. The Golden Knights move on to the Stanley Cup Final.