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    Thomas Casale

    Casale on Campus

    A frequent guest on national radio and TV shows to discuss college sports, Thomas started playing football sheets at 8 years old when his dad was the local bookie. He's been betting -- and winning -- for more than 30 years. Thomas sets his own lines for each game, then looks at the metrics to see where he can find an edge in the number. Over the last three seasons (through Jan. 31, 2024), Thomas is 305-179-7 (63 percent) in college basketball -- all publicly documented. He serves as the sports betting director for NOLA.com and previously worked for the Action Network and theScore as an editor and analyst. He also co-hosted the BetQL U college basketball podcast with Eli Hershkovich. Always looking to beat the odds, Thomas turned his two sons into long snappers so they can get scholarships and attend college for free. For Thomas Casale media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    @TheTomCasale

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    Thomas's Past Picks

    Feb 24 2024, 11:00 pm UTC
    League
    Yale
    84
    @ Columbia
    76
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Yale has lost two straight games on the road to Princeton and Cornell but this is a good spot for the Bulldogs to get back in the win column. Yale beat Columbia 89-70 at home last month. The 89 points is a season high for the Bulldogs. Columbia is 4-6 in its last 10 games with the four wins coming over Ivy League bottom-feeders Dartmouth, Brown and Penn. When the Lions step up in class they struggle, losing three games to Yale, Cornell and Princeton by an average of 13 points. I like that trend to continue with Yale covering the modest 6-point spread.

    Pick Made: Feb 24, 7:18 am UTC
    Feb 24 2024, 9:00 pm UTC
    League
    Alabama
    95
    @ Kentucky
    117
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 UK ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    It's the second straight Saturday where I think Kentucky is in a great spot. Last week the Wildcats dominated Auburn as 9-point dogs. This Saturday Kentucky returns home after a last second loss to LSU. Alabama is unbeatable in Tuscaloosa but the Tide have faced three KenPom Top 25 teams on the road - Creighton, Tennessee, Auburn - and lost all three. The two SEC losses are particularly alarming. Alabama lost to Tennessee by 20 and Auburn by 18, giving up 90+ points both times. Since the loss to Gonzaga, UK's defense has improved, allowing 65.6 PPG. Look for Kentucky to get back on track with a strong performance at home.

    Pick Made: Feb 23, 10:05 pm UTC
    Feb 24 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    PFW
    85
    @ Green Bay
    59
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +172
    3-1 in Last 4 CBB ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Green Bay is one of the biggest surprises in CBB after finishing 3-29 last year. The Phoenix are 11-3 since Christmas with two of those losses coming to Northern Kentucky. They did lose to Purdue Fort Wayne in the first matchup but that was back in November. Green Bay has two big edges in this game. They are the top defensive rebounding team in the Horizon, while Fort Wayne is the worst on the offensive glass. The Phoenix also live by the 3-point shot, scoring 40% of their points from beyond the arc. That sets up well against a Fort Wayne defense that gives up a lot of perimeter shots. I make this number -4, so I see value on Green Bay at home.

    Pick Made: Feb 23, 3:16 am UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 11:00 pm UTC
    League
    Kent St.
    70
    @ Akron
    83
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Akron and Kent St are bitter rivals but the Golden Flashes have stumbled to a disappointing 13-13 record this season. Akron won at Kent St 77-71 back on Jan. 19, although the final score is misleading. The Zips controlled most of the game, leading 57-44 with just under 10 minutes to play before Kent surged late to make things interesting. Akron was also without starting guard Greg Tribble for that game. Tribble averages 10.7 points and is a good defensive player. The Zips are coming off a loss to Toledo but look for them to get back on track vs. an overmatched Kent St squad. I like Akron to win by double digits at home where the Zips are 11-0 on the season.

    Pick Made: Feb 23, 5:09 pm UTC
    Feb 22 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Richmond
    85
    @ Rhode Island
    77
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    This number feels light for a Richmond team that has been good on the road this season, going 5-1 away from home in conference play. Rhode Island is 2-7 in its last seven games with five of those losses coming by 8 points or more. Rhode Island will likely struggle to score in this matchup. The Rams get 22% of their points from free throws in A-10 play but Richmond doesn't foul much. Look for the Spiders' success on the road to continue as they cover this modest number.

    Pick Made: Feb 21, 6:45 am UTC
    Feb 21 2024, 2:00 am UTC
    League
    Baylor
    71
    @ BYU
    78
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    I like this spot for BYU returning home after a bad loss to Oklahoma St over the weekend. Baylor beat BYU earlier this season 81-72 in a game where the Bears shot 14 more free throws and the Cougars struggled from three. Still, the game was tied with 10 minutes to go. I don't expect Baylor to get as many free-throw chances on the road and look for BYU to shoot better from long range against a Bears defense that struggles to guard the perimeter. This is a big game for BYU and I think they cover the short number at home.

    Pick Made: Feb 20, 3:31 am UTC
    Feb 21 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Bowling Green
    60
    @ C. Michigan
    62
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +172
    3-1 in Last 4 CBB ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Central Michigan has been the surprise team in the MAC this season and the market is still too low on them. The Chippewas are 7-1 in their last eight games with the only loss coming on the road to MAC leader Akron. One of those wins was a 77-76 double OT thriller over Bowling Green. The Falcons are just 2-5 in their last 7 games and coming off an ugly loss to an awful Eastern Michigan team. The metrics don't love CMU but some of it is because the Chipps started the year 5-9. Since then, they are 10-2 and a perfect 5-0 at home. I make this line CMU -4, so I see value taking -122 on the moneyline.

    Pick Made: Feb 19, 10:09 pm UTC
    Feb 17 2024, 11:00 pm UTC
    League
    Kentucky
    70
    @ Auburn
    59
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 UK ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Auburn is unbeaten at home this season, winning all 13 games by double-digits. The Tigers also have a superior defense to Kentucky, so I get why Auburn is a solid favorite on Saturday. However, I think this line opened a little high at 9.5. I make Auburn -6.5 in this matchup. Kentucky is just a tough team to blow out because of the way the Wildcats score points. UK has played one of the toughest schedules in the country and lost by double-digits just once, 103-92 to Tennessee. This line is a bit of an overreaction to the Wildcats being 2-3 in their last five games. Auburn might prevail at home, but I like UK to stay within the number.

    Pick Made: Feb 16, 11:43 pm UTC
    Feb 17 2024, 10:30 pm UTC
    League
    Utah St.
    55
    @ Colo. St.
    75
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    I like to back good teams returning home after a dismal performance. Colorado St had arguably the most dismal performance of the season on Tuesday. The Rams led San Diego St 44-30 at the break but lost 71-55 after scoring a measly 11 points in the second half. Now CSU returns home where they are 13-1 on the season. Utah St has been good away from home overall, although the Aggies lost their last two MWC road games to New Mexico by 13 and San Diego St by 14. Utah St gets a majority of its points in the paint but the Rams possess the top 2-point defense in the MWC. I expect a spirited effort from CSU on Saturday. Lay the short number.

    Pick Made: Feb 16, 9:00 pm UTC
    Feb 17 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Dartmouth
    63
    @ Columbia
    73
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    I hit Columbia on the opener at -8.5. KenPom makes this line 13 and Haslametrics 16. My personal line is Columbia -10.5, so 8.5 feels off. Columbia just won at Dartmouth by 16 on Feb. 3. In that game, the Lions shot 44% from three. Look for a repeat performance in the rematch. Columbia is the top three-point shooting team in the Ivy League, while Dartmouth has the worst three-point defense. The Big Green have lost six straight road games by double-digits. I'm betting that streak continues on Friday.

    Pick Made: Feb 16, 6:11 am UTC
    Feb 16 2024, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Memphis
    66
    @ North Texas
    76
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +172
    3-1 in Last 4 CBB ML Picks
    Analysis:

    North Texas has been stumbling of late, going 2-5 in its last seven games, while Memphis comes into this matchup winners of three straight. However, this looks like a great spot to back the Mean Green at home. North Texas' defense is still one of the best in the conference. Memphis struggles with turnovers and should have issues with North Texas' ball pressure defense. The Mean Green also hold a major edge on the offensive boards with Memphis ranking last in the conference in defensive rebounding. I make North Texas -3 and I like the way this game sets up for the Mean Green.

    Pick Made: Feb 15, 4:34 am UTC
    Feb 16 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Charleston
    77
    @ Northeastern
    73
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    This number feels a little low for Charleston. The Cougars have won the last four meetings in the series by an average score of 87-64. That trend should continue on Thursday. Charleston attempts the 10th most three-point shots per game and Northeastern has one of the worst perimeter defenses in the country, allowing opponents to hit over 38% from long range. Another edge for Charleston is Northeastern struggles to shoot the ball and relies on creating turnovers that lead to buckets. However, the Cougars don't turn the ball over much, which should limit Northeastern's scoring chances. Charleston is 7-2 on the road this season and I like them to cover the short number here.

    Pick Made: Feb 15, 2:58 am UTC
    Feb 13 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    Marquette
    78
    @ Butler
    72
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    I like this spot for an undervalued Butler squad. This is a matchup between two of the hottest teams in the Big East. Marquette has won seven straight. The Warriors' last loss came on Jan. 10 at home to Butler. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 5-1 in their last six games with the lone loss coming at UConn. Butler defends the three-point shot well and that was key in the first matchup when the Bulldogs held Marquette to just 5-of-31 (16%) from long range. I think this line should be closer to even and Marquette has a huge game coming up on Saturday vs. UConn. I'll take Butler getting over a possession at home to cover the number.

    Pick Made: Feb 12, 10:05 pm UTC
    Feb 10 2024, 10:30 pm UTC
    League
    UCLA
    61
    @ California
    60
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    UCLA started the season 6-10 and was playing awful basketball. The low point came in early January when the Bruins lost at home to Cal and Stanford, then got blasted by 46 at Utah. Since then, UCLA has turned things around, going 6-1 with the lone defeat a 6-point loss at Arizona. I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. UCLA opened +2 at Cal, but I make the Bruins -3. Since the loss to Utah, Bart Torvik ranks UCLA the No. 16 team in the country, while Cal comes in at 65 during that span. The last time Cal swept UCLA was the 2011-12 season. Can the Bears do it again this year? I'm betting no.

    Pick Made: Feb 10, 1:42 am UTC
    Feb 10 2024, 9:00 pm UTC
    League
    Gonzaga
    89
    @ Kentucky
    85
    +972
    11-1 in Last 12 CBB Picks
    +900
    9-0 in Last 9 CBB ATS Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 UK ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    This is a great spot to back Kentucky at home. The Wildcats had lost two straight before blowing out a bad Vanderbilt team on the road. Kentucky has issues on defense but the offense is rolling, averaging 97.3 points in its last three games. Gonzaga is 0-4 vs. KenPom Top 30 teams, losing three of those games by double-digits. The Zags still play at a fast pace and that style will hurt them on Saturday. Kentucky is one of the fastest, most athletic teams in the country. I expect the Bulldogs' transition defense to get exploited by the UK guards. I make the Cats -6 in this matchup. Gonzaga will score, but Kentucky scores more. Back the Wildcats as short home favorites.

    Pick Made: Feb 09, 9:49 pm UTC