Nebraska is 1-5 in one score games this season...

I think the wrong team is favored here and won't be surprised if it swaps by tip-off. Dayton is a little undervalued right now and while I like Marquette, I think they are a better bet at home or as underdogs. Marquette thrives at creating turnovers and scoring in transition but Dayton doesn't turn the ball over. The Flyers rank ninth in turnover percentage and 68th in allowing potential quick points off steals. Dayton is one of the most experienced teams in CBB and if the Flyers limit mistakes on Saturday, I think they get the win at home.

I like Jacksonville State in this spot. Utah Valley had a nice road win over Murray State early in the season but the Wolverines lost their last four games away from home by an average of 15 points. Jacksonville State comes in 5-4 but the Gamecocks lost three tight games to Toledo, James Madison and South Alabama by a total of 10 points on neutral/away courts. Jacksonville State is a strong defensive rebounding team and ranks 31st in 2-point field goal percentage defense. They struggle defending the perimeter but shooting threes isn't Utah Valley's strength. Good matchup for Jax State. I took the ML here but also like the Gamecocks on the spread at -3 or less.

This opener is too low in my opinion. I took Georgetown over Albany a couple of weeks ago at a similar number. I see Syracuse having many of the same edges in this matchup. The Orange don’t shoot many threes and get most of their points from inside the arc. That’s a perfect recipe for beating Albany. The Great Danes rank 348th in two-point percentage defense and don’t have the size to deal with Syracuse in the paint. We saw Georgetown exploit this weakness by shooting 74 percent from the field. Albany also relies on getting baskets in transition but many of those come off steals. Syracuse isn’t sloppy with the basketball, ranking 23rd in turnover percentage. I would back SU up to -14.

I make Kansas -8 in this game and I was going to wait overnight to see if the line drops but my gut says 5.5 is the best we'll get. Missouri is 7-1 but the Tigers have played one of the softest schedules in CBB so far. The one team Missouri faced that ranks in KenPom's top 100 was Memphis and they lost by eight. I like this spot for Kansas with the Jayhawks coming off the ugly loss at Creighton without Rylan Griffen. Griffen is expected back but Missouri will be without leading scorer Caleb Grill. I think the Jayhawks win by double-digits on the road.

Take UC Riverside at -10 or less.

I thought UConn would be overvalued entering the season and we saw that at the Maui Invitational where the Huskies lost three games. However, now I think it's swung the other way. I make UConn -4 in this matchup at home. Both team struggle to guard the perimeter but Baylor ranks an ugly 355th in three-point field goal percentage defense. That will be an issue against a UConn offense that ranks Top 40 in three-point attempts per game. The Bears didn't look good vs. Gonzaga and Tennessee and trailed St. John's by 20. I like UConn to win its 25th straight game at home.

I'm hopping on Ole Miss early. I make Louisville -1 here and think this number will go down. The Rebels' ball pressure defense should cause havoc against a Louisville team that ranks 225th in turnover percentage. Also, the Cardinals just lost Kasean Pryor for the season. He averages 12 points and 6 rebounds, so it's a huge blow for the Cardinals. I'm surprised the line opened so high with Pryor out. Give me Ole Miss getting over a possession on the opener.

I think we are getting a little value here with McCaffrey. He wasn't much of a factor last week with the 49ers falling behind early. The week before vs. Seattle, McCaffrey put up 79 yards on 19 carries. I think we see a stat line similar to that in a cold, windy night game at Buffalo.

Georgetown has done a good job of beating inferior opponents this season. The Hoyas won their last three games over Mount Saint Mary’s, Saint Francis and Wagner by an average of 22.6 points. Georgetown has a major size advantage over Albany and that is likely to show up in the paint. The Hoyas rank 20th in height, while Albany is 347th. The Great Danes don’t shoot the three well and score 57 percent of their points from inside the arc. That will be a challenge against a Georgetown defense that ranks ninth in two-point field goal percentage defense. I think the market is a little low on Georgetown right now. I'll back the Hoyas at -12.5.

Both teams have played well in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament but I think Louisville is a bit overvalued here. I make this game a pick on a neutral court. Porter Moser revamped his roster to get better shooters on the court this year and it has been working early. OU ranks 99th in three-point scoring rate and 82nd in three-point field goal percentage. The Sooners also have a big edge on the offensive boards and that could be the difference in a close game. Give me OU getting over a possession.

Arizona has lost three of four and while I'm not a big fan of this team overall, I think this is a good spot to back the Wildcats at a good number. West Virginia is coming off back-to-back OT games and isn't a very deep team, ranking 287th in bench minutes. If the Wildcats can establish their fast pace in this game, I think they wear down West Virginia in the second half. I make Arizona -8 here, so I see some value backing the Wildcats -6.

I'm taking San Jose State early because I think the opening number is way too low. I make the Spartans -5 and the ML on the opener is a reasonable -134. San Jose St is playing UNC Greensboro as a write this but win or lose, this is a complete fade of Long Beach State. Both teams are playing their third game in three days but Long Beach lost the first two by 23 and 26 points. This is an atrocious basketball team right now. San Jose State isn't very good either but they should have enough to get the win over one of the country's worst teams on a neutral court. If you do like the ML, lay the 2.5 early.

I was waiting to see if this line dropped to -3 but it doesn't look like we will get there, so I'll take 3.5. Auburn has a couple of big advantages tonight. The Tigers' transition defense is one of the best in CBB and when UNC isn't getting easy baskets, it can struggle to score consistently. I also expect Auburn to dominate in the paint with Johni Broome. Both teams needed big comebacks to win last night but Auburn has more depth, ranking 51st in bench minutes compared to 239 for UNC. I have Iowa St rated much higher than UNC or Dayton and thought the winner of Auburn/ISU would have an easier second-round matchup. I think the Tigers cover here.

I think this opener is low for a neutral court game. I make Miami -6 here. The RedHawks have a couple of big edges in this matchup. Miami shoots a lot of threes, ranking 12th in three-point scoring rate. Siena's biggest issue defensively early in the season has been guarding the perimeter where the Saints rank 354th in three-point field goal percentage defense. The RedHawks should also create a lot of turnovers and dominant the offensive glass. Siena has covered nine of its last 10 games but I give Miami the advantage in Monday's early tip-off. I'm grabbing -3 because I think the lines moves higher.