Thomas's Picks (1 Live)
I'm backing Mitchell Robinson to score at least five points in Game 1. Robinson has gone over 4.5 points eight times in his last 10 games. In four games against Philadelphia this season, Robinson averaged 21.7 minutes and went over this total in three of the meetings. Robinson tends to play more minutes versus the 76ers because the Knicks need his size and physicality defending Joel Embiid. If Robinson plays 18-20 minutes on Monday, I like his chances to score at least five points.
I played the Phillies with this same pitching matchup on Wednesday but the game got rained out. Now Cristopher Sanchez and Logan Webb will square off in the first game of a double-header. I'll run it back with Philadelphia. Sanchez is coming off his worst outing of the season versus the Cubs where he gave up six runs in 5.1 innings. However, in his five prior starts, Sanchez allowed just five earned runs over 28.1 innings. I expect Sanchez to rebound here and Logan Webb has pitched better at home than on the road. The Phillies go 2-0 under new skipper Don Mattingly.
I took the Wild in Game 4 at home and while they delivered with a 3-2 OT win, I knew I was going to back Dallas here. I think the Stars are the better team and expect them to win the series. Dallas is 27-12-4 at home this season and they have done very well in this spot, going 22-7-3 following a loss. This series has 7 games written all over it, but I like the Stars to take the pivotal Game 5 at home.
I like the Under in Game 4 if you can get a six. That's the key number because eight straight meetings between Utah and Vegas have produced six goals or less. Mammoth goaltender Karel Vejmelka has stepped up his game in the postseason with a 2.36 goals against average and .916 save percentage. Meanwhile, Vegas' Carter Hart allowed four goals on just 12 shots in Game 3. However, before that poor outing, Hart went 7-1 with a .932 save percentage. I expect Hart to play better on Monday, so I'll go under six goals for a half unit.
I can certainly see Edmonton winning this game and evening the series but the Ducks being +115 at home after scoring 13 goals in the last two games if kind of crazy. There is talk the Oilers may go with Tristan Jarry in net for Game 4. While Connor Ingram is struggling, a potential move to Jarry smells more like desperation. He's averaging 3.32 goals against this season and Anaheim hung 13 goals in three games versus Jarry this season. Edmonton is just 19-17-6 on the road, so I'll take the Ducks at plus money in The Pond.
Nathan MacKinnon led the NHL in goals during the regular season but has yet to find the back of the net through three playoff games vs. the Kings. History says that streak could come to an end on Sunday. MacKinnon went more than three games without a goal just twice during the regular season. He enters Sunday with two days rest and despite not posting a goal yet, MacKinnon leads Colorado in scoring chances in the playoffs. I'll take a shot at plus money for a half unit.
Now that Flyers goaltender Dan Vladar has been confirmed for Saturday after an injury scare in Game 3, I'm backing Philadelphia to get the sweep at home. Hockey is an interesting sport because teams with great goaltending that get hot late in the season can make a title run. The Flyers fit that description. Philadelphia is 17-5 in its last 22 games and Vladar has been fantastic over that stretch. He's 12-3 in his last 15 starts, allowing two goals or less 10 times. I expect the Penguins to fight hard but the Flyers have been by far the more physical team in this series. I like Philly to end it tonight.
I like the Wild to even the series on Saturday. Game 3 was a double OT thriller that was one of the best hockey games I saw all season. It could have gone either way but the difference was Minnesota going just 1-for-7 with a man advantage. The Wild had the NHL's third-best power play during the regular season, so I expect to see that pick up in Game 4. Dallas is a great road team and I still like them to win the series, although I think it goes seven games. I'll back the Wild at home in Game 4.
Ottawa lost two really tough games on the road but I like them to rebound Thursday at home. The Senators closed the regular season 9-1-1 at home, which included a 6-3 win over Carolina on April 5. Despite being down 0-2, goaltender Linus Ullmark has been fantastic, stopping 70 of 75 shots. He has a .917 save percentage in his last 11 starts. Ottawa missed a couple of great scoring opportunities late in the double OT loss Monday or this series would be 1-1. If the Senators can get off to a faster start at home, I like their chances in Game 3.
The Giants won the first two games of this series and I think we are getting some early value at -143 with Robbie Ray on the mound Sunday. Ray has allowed two runs or fewer in all four starts this season. The Nationals counter with Miles Mikolas and his 11.49 ERA. That number is a little skewed because he gave up 11 runs to the Dodgers but San Francisco hits lefties pretty hard, so I see Mikolas' struggles continuing here. The other issue for Washington is Mikolas isn't pitching deep into games. That means the Giants should get plenty of chances to tee off on a Nationals' bullpen that ranks last in the NL with a 5.81 ERA. Take SF to get the sweep.
Half Unit. I'm going to fade German Marquez here. Marquez has allowed five home runs in his first three starts and I think he will struggle facing a hot Angels lineup that has put up at least seven runs in five of their last six games. Marquez had one really strong outing against the Pirates but allowed four runs in each of his two other starts. I think we see a similar stat line tonight.
I like the Under in the Royals-Yankees game tonight at 8.5 or 8. Michael Wacha has strong numbers against the current Yankees' lineup, holding them to a .154 average in 130 plate appearances. Aaron Judge has really struggled against Wacha, going 3-for-24 (.125) with 12 strikeouts. Games started by Cam Schlittler have gone under this total seven times in his last eight outings dating back to last year. The Royals' bullpen is always a concern but I expect both starters to have success Friday night.
I like the Mariners in this spot with Bryan Woo on the mound. Michael King has been good through three starts but I do expect some regression and the Mariners' bats are hot right now, scoring 29 runs over their last four games. I took Seattle on Friday mentioning they lost a bunch of games by one run and that the breaks would start going their way soon. Since then, the Mariners won four straight over the Astros and I like them to stay hot on Tuesday.
This line is still 5.5 at BetMGM. It's 6.5 at plus money at most other books. I would take the over at either number. Nathan Eovaldi has posted seven strikeouts in two of his first three starts this season. I also like that after two rough outings he looked much better in his last start against Seattle where he allowed just two runs over 6.0 innings. This A's lineup has already struck out 109 times versus right-handed pitchers this season. I think Eovaldi gets to at least seven K's for the third time in four starts. Play up to 6.5.