We used this successfully with the Dolphins - a struggling team who is able to stop the bleeding with a bye week and come out the other side better for it. Same for the winless Chargers. This line opened 7.5 and was immediately bet down. I am okay with taking +6.5 and I don't mind buying it to +7 at anything less than -130. There is no home field advantage here. Puca Nacua is still banged up and the Chargers are a better defensive team than the Rams last opponent, the Raiders. If this line feels a bit short, I agree, and I think the oddsmakers get it too. Chargers keep it competitive and may pick up their first outright win of the season.

Jets are smarting off a division loss while Las Vegas has now dropped 4-straight. The defense is porous, there is no running game, and the offensive line is being reshuffled. Las Vegas beat Miami, the Chargers, and the Saints. They have not fared nearly as well against good defenses and gang green may be the best defense they will face yet. Geno Smith would like to show his old team how things have changed and he should have success against this bad pass defense that lacks a pass rush. When I crunch the stats, I have the Jets as slightly better than a 3-point favorite. I don't mind laying the point or playing New York on the money line. I believe they win the game.

Important to lay 2.5 here and not 3 as they market is headed that direction. Extra rest has proven to be an especially big deal in the NFL this season, even more so for home teams. Seahawks played last Thursday and lost. Now they host a serious opponent in prime time, a Chiefs team who has played Denver, the Chargers, Dolphins, Raiders, and Colts. Zach Charbonnet is back for "The Kenneth Walker Game" and should have something to say about spoiling the homecoming. While the masses want to back Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, give me the unpopular home favorite.

I like to go against a team that is on a roll only to have its momentum halted by a bye week and that would be the undefeated Vikings. Adding to this is the Colts losing last week, pushing this line closer to a full TD. On the look ahead, the line was only 4 or 4.5 and now we're at 6.5. I am not opposed to buying this to +7, by the way. Getting away from home and putting last week's ugly loss behind them ought to be good for Indy. Vikings defense has been excellent but not so much for the Kyler Murray led offense. I will bank on them stubbing their toe here just enough for us to stay inside the number.

Miami's situation is the opposite of Minnesota's. While the bye week didn't come at a great time for the Vikings, it was much needed for the winless Dolphins. Now they have a familiar opponent who doesn't necessarily look the part of a big favorite. With extra time to prepare and get a number of issues worked out, the Dolphins should be set up to have one of if not their very best efforts of the season here on Sunday in New York. The Dolphins have played the Raiders, 49'ers, Chiefs, Vikings, and Bengals. This will be by far the worst opponent they have faced all season. They just might pick up their first outright win of the year.

I love betting against a team that was projected to lose last week and is now suddenly expected to win on the road. The Browns won outright as a home underdog and are now in the role of road favorite. Going against a team in this situation has been profitable for decades in the NFL and I will gladly try it again here. Teasing Tennessee up to +8 or +8.5 is a great option too but I believe they have a great chance to make it two outright wins in a row. Furthermore, this is a division sandwich for Cleveland, coming off Baltimore with Pittsburgh on deck next week. Go Titans.

Similar to the Patriots stock ascending too quickly, the faith in the Raiders is waning too quickly. They played an excellent game against KC and nearly won. They got smoked in New England by a team looking to avenge last season's embarrassment. Buffalo was just a 3.5 underdog that won outright in a very lengthy, emotional, high-profile contest and is now being thrust into the role of road favorite - which is deserved but again, I believe the perception is a bit high on Buffalo and too low on Las Vegas. Buffalo's defense allows opponents to stick around. I think the Raiders get right here and possibly win outright. I'll take as low as 4.5 here and feel I still have enough of an edge.

Important to get 7.5 and not just a flat 7. Patriots off two straight, big wins - over Buffalo and hammering the Raiders. Their stock is on the rise because of this and I believe too high too soon against a Jets team that has been excellent defensively. NYJ struggles to score on offense but their defense is keeping them in games. NYJ may not win this game outright - although, I feel they could be this week's upset candidate - but whatever the case, I believe 7.5 is too many. Let's not rush to put NE back in the SuperBowl as I still don't believe they are very good - and they are still very injured. Flyboys keep this one inside a full TD.

It looks like the recreational players can't get to the window fast enough and are cutting in line to bet Jacksonville and I imagine that is related to the fact that this team has been in London for a week already and Houston is just a 1-4 football team. Fact is the Jaguars should have lost last week and Trevor Lawrence throughout his young career, has struggled vs. DeMeco Ryans' defense. The fact that this line is staying put at 2.5 tells me it is not going to the key number of 3 and that has me joining the against the grain party, taking the 2.5 with Houston

Rallying behind the backup quarterback has happened early and often in the 2026 NFL season and we have that situation again with Tyler Huntley filling in for the fallen Lamar Jackson. I fully expect the Ravens to play at a high-level under the Sunday Night lights. Meanwhile, the stock could not be any higher on the suddenly amazing Falcons. I believe 3.5 is too much of an adjustment. I do think we get a very competitive game here but not one that is 4-points in favor of Atlanta - and we're already seeing quite a few 3s pop up in the market. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Baltimore won outright.

Find the full 7 points here, as the market is moving. Much of the doubt on Cincy comes from Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase likely missing this game. For me, that is worth about 2.5 points. Miami remains relatively healthy and is playing hard. They have to see this as a game they can win. They have been at Minnesota, San Francisco, and Las Vegas, and at home against Kansas City - those teams are a combined 15-1. This looks like a very favorable spot for the Fish to put one in the win column. The Bengals struggle to run the ball and are very pass-happy, but they're now missing their two biggest targets. Give me the 7-point home underdog.

The 3-1 Cleveland Browns? What? Here's another 3-1 team visiting a 1-3 team off a loss and the 3-1 team is receiving an alarming about of action - yet the line is going the other way. I agree. NY has been very competitive against strong competition while Cleveland was crushed by Jacksonville, especially fortunate to beat Tampa Bay with a lightning delay, and beat a lousy Steelers team. I'm not sold that this team is suddenly on its way to a division title let alone a playoff spot. I believe the Jets show up in a big way today and handle the Brownies. Rather than mess with the short spread, I took the money line at -130. Just win, baby.

The first place Giants? A win over Dallas doesn't look all that impressive anymore. They should have lost to both the Titans and the Cardinals. I don't have faith in Jameis Winston. And yes, Washington is no great shakes, but Jayden Daniels is back, and Dan Quinn is at his ATS best when playing in division. In addition, 1-3 teams off a loss have been especially profitable in Week 5 for over 40 seasons. The large majority is on the first-place G-Men here, but the line is going the other way. I agree. I'll lay the 3.5 with Washington.

This is the third straight home game for San Francisco. That coupled with a 3-0 start, I believe is inflating this number a bit. Let's remember, they played the Rams in Australia after LA completely misjudged the travel strategy, they played Miami, and last week, the 49'ers beat Arizona but did not cover. Denver has played KC, JAX, and the Rams. This will be SF's most difficult test to date and they have a division game at Seattle on deck. Injuries continue to pile up at Wide Receiver and that makes it even more difficult against this Denver secondary. Getting the full 3 is important here and they are available at a reasonable price. I would not be surprised if the Broncos won outright.

Let's kick off "Hold Your Nose" week with the biggest underdog on the board. Baltimore is coming off an international trip to Brazil and is especially beaten up across the offensive line. Trey Hendrickson is also out on the defensive line. Tennessee is healthy and they continue to play hard. 0-3 teams are typically a good play in Week 4 ATS and the Ravens could possibly be set up here for a flat spot off the emotional win in another country - with Sunday Night Football on deck next week followed by two consecutive division games, followed by at Buffalo and hosting Jacksonville. This looks like a soft spot and 11.5 is too many in my mind. I made the number 8.5.