Sunday Funday - Horseshoes at Arrowheads

What do they do for an encore? Jaguars at Broncos

Deep in the heart of Texas - Bengals at Texans

Fans and bettors are high on the Broncos this season in the AFC, like they are on the Rams in the NFC. At BetMGM, the Broncos are the very highest in ticket count to go OVER their season win total. Their win total last year was 8.5. They won 14 games and now it's only 9.5. KC is favored in this game and it's already up to 3 in many spots, yet the masses are playing the dog. Everything is telling me Chiefs at home, laying less than a field goal, is still nearly an auto-play. This is triple-revenge for the Chiefs who have now fallen to Denver in each of their last three meetings. Give me Kansas City to win by three or more.

There is a lot of uncertainty about how the Bears will fare this season after exceeding expectations last year. I don't think we can poke many holes in Ben Johnson - he's good and I believe Caleb Williams is too - but the defense was especially lucky with turnovers last season and I expect that to regress. Chicago has won 3 or fewer division games over the past two seasons. That does not bode well when in the role of road favorite in Week 1 with a division game on deck. In addition, this is the third straight road game for the Bears who played their final two preseason games away from home. Give me the home dog +3 and a possible outright victory.

Key to playing the game this way is waiting. Betting the dog on the ML is very common when it comes to Super Bowls. By the time we get to game day, it is likely that the ML on the favorite will be less than -200, so be patient and see if you can get a preferred price. I would not be surprised if Seattle covered the spread as well. I personally made the number 5 with 1 point included for "Home Field Advantage." The Seahawks have played here for 14-seasons, they and their fans are much more familiar with this venue. My stats crunch comes to 6.5 - but again, I will play Seattle ML as I believe, simply, they are the better team.

Barner has gotten very little attention in the 2 playoff games for the Seahawks so far, catching just 3 balls for 15 yards. I believe this sets up nicely for him to come in under the radar somewhat for this game. We have to figure that JSN will be the focal point of the New England defense, limiting his output as much as possible. This could create opportunities for Barner, who caught 6 touchdown passes this season and also scored a rushing TD. With the opponent's defense dedicating its attention so heavily on Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker, I like Barner to have a successful game and find his way into the end zone.

Maye has not been his MVP self in the postseason. Conditions have been difficult but so have been the defenses he's faced and it won't get any easier vs Seattle. In 3 games, he is 43 of 77 with 6 fumbles (3 lost), 2 interceptions, and he's been sacked 15 times. Even if his shoulder is healthy, I still feel he deserves to be a solid favorite to throw an interception. The O-Line hasn't been able to protect him as well and he has faced the best pass defenses in the league. Chargers No. 1, Houston 2, Denver 4, and Seattle No. 5 as far as Defensive Passer Rating rankings in the NFL. I'm betting he will slip at least once again on Sunday.

I have felt the Rams are the better team all season. They have slipped a bit the last few weeks but I believe they put forth their A game here on Sunday. My numbers make them a 1-point favorite - and I love teasing them up to +8.5 with Denver up to +10.5. I do believe both underdogs win outright this weekend. With Seattle looking dominant recently and LA looking beatable, we may be catching a bit of value in this line. It is telling that it hasn't gone to 3. Rams vs Broncos for SuperBowl 60 in Santa Clara.

This sets up nicely for "the fallen hero" theory. The Broncos know that they will have to put forth an inspired effort to overcome their missing star at QB. It will be a rally-the-troops effort by the team and the fans as this whole environment ought to be nuts. The defense, that has slipped lately, will have to perform as it did earlier in the year and I believe the loss of Nix will be the perfect motivation to do so. Patriots have had success the past 2 games against awful offensive lines. Not the case here. I expect a huge effort from Denver on all sides, making for a very manageable game for Jarrett Stidham. I also like teasing Denver to +10.5.

I believe the weather story has become overblown here. Stafford spent the majority of his career in the NFC North. The temperatures will affect everyone and the Rams are the far superior team. They let Carolina get too close last week and they won't here. The Bears defense is a bottom 10 unit in the league. If they cannot force turnovers, they get picked apart, and that is what the Rams will do. Just as the magic finally wore off for the 49'ers, it will do so here too for the pull another rabbit out of my hat Chicago Bears. Lay the points. LA wins by double-digits.. just as my numbers say so as my stats crunch spits out Rams by 10.

Very important to get the +3.5 here and not just a flat 3. We saw what the Chargers defense did to Drake Maye and New England and this defense is better. I also believe that many will remember what they saw last out of CJ Stroud and the Houston offense and overplay the loss of Nico Collins. If all of that is so awful, why is the line only a field goal? I believe the Texans offense will be far better than it was last week and the defense will be excellent. I definitely see them staying within the 3.5 and I do believe they have a good chance to win the game outright.

Crunching the numbers, I actually have Denver as a 3-pt favorite and that falls primarily on its defensive stats, which are exceptional. Offense is a problem. Eleven of the 14 wins were by one score. Broncos trailed in 15 of 17 games. Nix was an average QB - again, benefitted by an excellent defense. Bills strength on defense is vs the pass which will make the game difficult for Nix, and the Broncos rushing attack is just average too. Denver struggled vs mobile QB's this season; T. Lawrence, J. Dart, M. Mariota, and D. Jones. Public perception is Buffalo has no healthy receivers but really, it has the better options on offense. Last time Denver faced a team this good at home, it lost (Jaguars).

Patriots' schedule has been a sore spot for their supporters all season but there is no denying, they played hardly any good teams. They were 2-2 vs playoff teams, splitting with the Bills and also splitting with the Panthers and Steelers, the two worst teams in the tournament. Chargers were 3-2 vs playoff teams (not counting Week 18) and had to face Denver, Philly, Steelers, Jaguars, and Texans. LAC also has the better point differential vs common opponents. They have an excellent formula for playoff football: a rushing attack, a pass rush, and an excellent defense. When I crunch my numbers, I come up with LAC as a 1-point favorite. I'll gladly take anything greater than a field goal and they just might win outright.

When this game first materialized, the immediate reactions were, "I'm hammering the OVER." That had me immediately considering the UNDER. We know SF's defense can be a problem but Robert Salah has them playing above their heads, with a great deal of energy. Let's not forget, they held Seattle to 13-points last week and forced four field goal attempts. Seattle's offense ranks much higher than Philadelphia's and the defense of Philly is very good. It feels like 49ers vs Eagles would mean points but the fact that the line opened at 46 says a lot - and it has since been bet down. Some wind is expected and note that since 2004, the UNDER is 49-23 (68%) in Wild Card games played outdoors.