Warriors' mainstay Draymond Green had gone over 5.5 assists in each of his last five games, averaging 8.0 APG over this time. He's also gone over the assist prop in both appearances vs. the Clippers this season, averaging 7.3. Steph Curry is back for Golden State, which means fewer shots for Green and more assists as a facilitator.
Suns' Devin Booker is shooting 49 pct over his last six games, hitting 30+ points in five of his last six games, for an average of 31.7 per game. The Blazers are allowing nearly 116 points per game, in the bottom half of the NBA. Booker only scored 19 in his one matchup this year vs. Portland, but it was in limited minutes in a blowout. Last year, he torched them for 31.8 PPG. Booker's usage rate is 32.3% and if Grayson Allen doesn't play, it'll go up more.
It's been tough all year to figure out if it's Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen on the rebounding front for the Cavs. Two nights ago, vs. this same Hawks team, it was Mobley with 22 points and 19 boards, while Allen had 8 boards. Well, tonight, Allen is out. So is Donovan Mitchell. Someone has to get the board. And it wasn't just Wednesday night. Mobley has averaged 31.8 P/R vs. the Hawks in the last five matchups, going 5-0 to this prop. He's also gone 26+ in 8 of the last 10 games overall. It's a great matchup for him, and with Allen out, it's his ballgame.
We are going right back to Stephon Castle, but this time, on the assists. The Spurs guard has gone over 7.5 assists in 9 of his past 11 games, averaging 9.1 per game. This coincided with an uptick in his minutes and usage, which are now 30 min per game and 24.8% usage rate. He's now cleared his assist prop total in 57.8 pct of his games, and faces a 76ers team that ranks 18th in assists allowed to shooting guards over the last seven games.
The Wildcats are incredibly deep, with seven players averaging at least 8.6 points a game. It’s splitting hairs with these two teams, but if I were to find one edge, it’s that Arizona is deeper and has played better and more consistently than Michigan. It’s a thin line, as the two teams have a combined five losses by 23 total points, with the lone difference being that Arizona won the Big 12 tourney, and Michigan lost in the Big Ten final. Arizona's depth is the small edge that wins the game.
Illinois State is getting 7.5 from Auburn in the NIT semifinals after winning outright as 8.5 and 7.5-point underdogs at Wake Forest and at Dayton in the previous two rounds. The Redbirds are 39th in the country in defense, holding opponents to 67.9 points per game. They face an Auburn team, that while one of the better scoring teams in the league, have next to no defense, allowing nearly 79 points a game, 312th in the nation. The Tigers have yet to cover a game in the NIT and are 14-22 ATS this season, bottom 30 in the nation in cover percentage. That includes 2-7 in the last 9 games as a favorite of 6+ points. An outright upset is on the table.
Nuggets' PG Jamal Murray is averaging 7.6 assists over his last five games and 7.3 assists over the last 10 games. He's gone over his prop in three of his last five games, including 14 vs. this same Jazz team last Friday. As for the Jazz, their defense has been horrific against guards lately, allowing 14 to James Harden, 14 to Murray, 8 to Devin Booker, 14 to Jamal Shead, and 11 to DeMar DeRozan just in the past 10 games. They are dead last in defensive rating, assists allowed per game, and points allowed.
Evan Mobley has scored 17+ points in nine of his last 10 games, averaging 22 PPG over this stretch. He's also gone over this prop line in 13 of the last 15 games overall and in 69.2% of games in which he plays 28+ minutes. He's played 28+ minutes in 12 of the last 13 games. Mobley faces a Lakers defense that is allowing a league-high 11.9 FG per game and 68.3 FG pct (3rd-worst) inside 5 feet this season, where Mobley shines. He's taken 73.1 pct of his shots from less than 5 feet this season. Mobley did not play vs. the Lakers earlier this year, but scored 20 and 25 in the two meetings last year.
Stephon Castle has gone over 4.5 boards in seven of the last 10 games, with one of the misses due to an early injury. In those seven instances, Castle had at least seven boards, with three of the totals hitting by halftime. Castle had five rebounds in the November matchup with Chicago, and that was when the Bulls allowed less than the league average to shooting guards. Over the past seven games, the Bulls have allowed shooting guards to hit this prop in over 50% of the games, compared to a 39% season rate. The guards who have gone over the total are those who are in the top-30 in rebounds by guards, which is where Castle is, averaging 5.1 RPG.





