Drake Maye led all quarterbacks, taking 62 sacks on the year, regular season and postseason combined. And now we’ve got a sack-hungry Seattle defense that is starving to get a taste of Maye. The guy who has my immediate attention is DeMarcus Lawrence. The Seahawks have played playoff teams in their last five games, and Lawrence had a sack in three of his last four starts. I'm feeling pretty good about Lawrence getting at least a half-sack with Maye as the starting quarterback.

Seattle wants to be conservative but also show some new moves with some new runners, including Rashid Shaheed. In their last game against the Rams, they tried one run, and he got 0 yards, but in his first playoff game, he had two attempts for 27 yards. Zach Charbonnet played that game, and he is out with an injury. They can only run Kenneth Walker so much before running out of options, and using the dynamite explosiveness of Shaheed could be the secret weapon. That’s what makes him so valuable. Use him. Get him involved in the gameplan. He's a game changer. He had 9 carries for 69 yards in the regular season and 3 for 27 yards in the two postseason games.

I'm waiting on a Super Bowl prediction, but I think I know where I'm going, and I think I know where Kenneth Walker is going. Without Zach Charbonnet, now, Walker is going to carry the ball at least 20 times in this game, get over 125 yards rushing and receiving combined, and at least one TD scored, which sets me up for quite a few props. The Seahawks have won 9 straight games, and in the last three, Walker has gotten over 111 yards in all three. Walker has been on it in four of his last five games, and the last five games were all playoff teams. Walker over 98.5 rushing and receiving yards.

The Seahawks and Patriots were the top teams in each conference, with each only losing three games, and each covering 14 games on the season. The Patriots went 9-0 in away games, and the Seahawks went 8-1 in road games. Seattle won nine games in a row, with the last five games being against playoff teams and covering the last four. Drake Maye has looked shaky over the last few weeks, as has his offensive line. The Seahawks were No. 1 in the NFL against the rush number, 6th in total yards allowed (293.4), and No. 1 in total points (17.1) allowed. The real betting hasn't begun. I think this line moves through 5 and 5.5 quickly and closes 6.

The Seahawks defense doesn't get talked about as much as the offense, but this defense was No. 1 in the NFL with 3.8 yards per rush allowed and No. 1 in points allowed at 17.1. We’ve got two QBs who are first-time Super Bowl starters and two defensive coaches who are first-time Super Bowl leaders. This is one Super Bowl that I don't think either offense has the success that we usually think of, particularly Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense. The Seahawks' defense keeps this game under. I think a score like 27-16 sounds appropriate.

The Rams and Seahawks split their two games this season, with only 3 points separating them, but when I look at the championship game, I have to side with the Rams. It comes down to the Rams having the better head coach, quarterback, receivers, and offensive line. You can give Seattle the edge on defense and special teams, but that defense gave up 581 yards to the Rams in the last meeting, Dec. 18th. With this game being so pivotal, I feel better about betting Matt Stafford than Sam Darnold. Stafford just feels right; Darnold is missing something. The Rams had the No. 1 offense in the NFL, averaging 392 yards a game while scoring an NFL-best 30.1 points per game.

Drake Maye was the second-most-sacked quarterback in the NFL this season. He was taken down 57 times, and he's facing the No. 1 sack team in the NFL that put quarterbacks down 68 times this season. The feature sack artist for the Broncos is Nik Bonitto, who has over 14 sacks each of the last two seasons, and he had a sack last week in the playoff game against Buffalo. All he's got to get is his one sack, and we cash the ticket. Also, left tackle Will Campbell has had issues the last couple of weeks. Nik Bonitto over one sack.

In keeping up with the theme of Sean Payton having the element of surprise with his weapons that maybe we haven't seen that much of this year, Marvin Mims running the ball. He rushed this year 12 times for 78 yards for a 6.5 average, and he scored his one rushing touchdown on a 16-yard run back in September. He scored a touchdown last week when he was targeted eight times and had eight receptions for 93 yards. He was a big part of the surprise game plan and had his best game of the season. The secret weapon, Marvin Mims, to rush for over 2.5 half yards.

I believe Sean Payton is going to run a conservative game plan with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. That means the Broncos are going to look for Stidham to carry the ball a few times during the game with his running ability. Pass six yards, run 5 yards, first down. He doesn't have a history of running with Denver, but in his last starts with the Raiders, he ran 14 times for 84 yards. The element of surprise is what I think Payton's going to bring out on Sunday. Stidham running the ball would be thinking outside the box and hitting that territory of the uncharted and the element of surprise that Payton loves. Stidham over 13.5 yards.

The Broncos got a home game for the AFC Championship against the Patriots, but they're without starter Bo Nix. It's looking like they're valuing Nix at 7-points and I don't see that. Jarrett Stidham is worth at most a 4-point differential from Nix but not 7. And when I can get over 4-points in the AFC Championship game against the team that is 0-4 in the playoffs all-time in Denver, I'll take Denver. It's expected to be 23° with 59% chance of precipitation, snow, and winds coming in at 6 mph. Those conditions, coupled with the Denver defense and Drake Maye’s propensity to take a sack and fumble the ball against the pass rush, I have a fair shot of covering with the Broncos.

I'm going to wait a couple of days before deciding whether I'm taking the Patriots or the Broncos side, but I'm pretty sure about the total and how things are going to play out. The under is attractive to me. Sean Payton doesn't want to exploit Jarrett Stidham. He's going to try to slow the game down anyway he can. Use a short passing game and run the ball. Stidham knows the system well. He's the guy Payton felt good enough to get rid of Russell Wilson. He was supposed to be the next starter for the Broncos until Bo Nix emerged. I'm hoping Drake Maye gives up one of his traditional fumbles and takes a few sacks. Under is the play.

Here's how I see it: The 49ers defense bends but doesn't break, and Brock Purdy makes the winning toss when the game matters, while Sam Darnold gets pinned for the loss. The 49ers have the momentum from winning in Philadelphia last week and will keep it going against the team they just lost to that cost them a bye and the number one seed. The extra work and beating the Eagles did the 49ers some good. The 7.5-point spread is crazy, but give me all those points and give me the over as well, as that's the only way the 49ers can win this game.

The 49ers and Seahawks have stayed under the total of their last three meetings. The two haven't even reached 38 points in any of those games, with the Seahawks winning two of them. The Seahawks won just two of the last nine games, however. It's the 49ers' offense that helped them get over the total in 10 games this season. The 49ers' defense has been nothing to brag about, except that they looked great against the Seahawks, holding them below 20 points or below in the last three games. The 49ers just beat the Eagles in Philly, and they go back to work Saturday night. They're going to give up a few scores and score a few more on their own. Over.

The Gameday weather in Denver is expected to be 45° with 9 mph winds and no chance of rain. I think it's going to be a high-scoring game, and I think both Bo Nix and Josh Allen rock the stat sheet, getting over on their totals of 1.5 touchdown passes and over 250 passing yards each. This is about the Bills' defense being exposed, and the Broncos' defense is ready on paper, but they have their lapses. Allen is going to find the weakness. The Broncos have gone over their total in four of the last six games, the same number as the Bills. I'm on the over here and over yardeage on the player props as well.

While all the TV pundits are making excuses for why the Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, no one seems to be talking about how the Bills are on the road with terrible losses at Atlanta and Miami. The Broncos are top-5 in most defensive categories, including being No. 1 in sacks. They've had several come-from-behind victories this year because of that defensive team that comes together in the critical moments. The comebacks aren’t a negative but rather a positive of what they do well. Josh Allen just had his first playoff victory on the road, and he doesn't have any real competition now. I'm looking for a high-scoring game with the Broncos getting 4th quarter magic to win the ball game.