Micah's Picks (4 Live)
The 49ers have won seven of the last nine meetings with the Seahawks....
The Texans play at Pittsburgh on Monday night in a Wild Card game, and the early forecast shows that it will be partly cloudy at 33° with the wind blowing at 7 mph and 11% chance of precipitation. That sounds like defensive football. Actually, wherever the Texans play is defensive football weather, as they've gone under 11 times in 17 games this year. The Texans have the No. 1-ranked defense, allowing 277 yards per game and allowing only 17.4 points per game. Aaron Rodgers has played better lately, inspired play, but I don't expect him to fare well against the best defense in football. Under is the play.
The weather is going to be perfect in Jacksonville at 67° and 10 mph winds with only an 8% chance of rain. Jacksonville went over the total in 10 out of their 17 games, and they should pick a fight with the Bills. This is one I'm looking to bet over 60. They met last season, and Buffalo won 47-10. Buffalo has the No. 1 rushing game in the NFL at 159 yards per game, and Jacksonville is No. 1 against the run, allowing 85.6 yards per game. Buffalo scores 28.3 points a game and Jacksonville scores 27.9 points a game. Over is the play.
I don't understand why the total for the Packers-Bears game is set at 44.5 when there are so many variables that suggest the number is too high. When they met in Green Bay with the full-strength Packers squad, which happened to be their last win, that included Jordan Love and Micah Parsons playing, the number was 43.5. And when they met in Chicago a couple of weeks later, the number was 44.5. Saturday, we have 18 mph winds in 34° weather and possible rain? Rough passing conditions. Love has missed the last couple of weeks and might be a little rusty. The Bears' No. 3-ranked running game chews clock off and stays under.
The Panthers beat the Rams in Carolina on November 30th, 31-28, as 9.5-point dogs, and the game went over the total of 44.5. It’s 46 on Saturday. The Rams have gone over the total in their last six games, and they get Devante Adams back this week after missing the last three weeks. Carolina has lost their last two games when they absolutely had to have it, and they still made the playoffs. The NFC South, wow, not a winner in the crew. I think the Panthers will score, but not more than the Rams.
The Rams have the No. 1 offense in the NFL, averaging 396 yards per game, and also score the most in the NFL at 30.5 points a game, and yet they'll be playing their first playoff game on the road. The Falcons have won their last two games against the Cardinals and Buccaneers behind the quarterbacking of Kirk Cousins, who's been strong with five touchdown passes and one interception over that span. However, the game before that, he lost 37-9 to the Seahawks with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Matt Stafford already has 40 touchdown passes this season and only five interceptions. I think we see the Rams try to put up a 40-ball on the Falcons. Rams to win.
The 49ers have won and covered five games in a row, and nobody talked much about them being a candidate to win the first seed in the NFC. It's either Rams or Seahawks that everyone's talking about, but if they beat the Bears on Sunday night and then follow it up with a home win against the Seahawks, the 49ers will be the NFC's No. 1 seed. All season, the 49ers have been hiding behind the weeds, but they look to be a powerful opponent for the remainder of the season. I can't deny that the 49ers are looking Super Bowl-ish with Brock Purdy and, maybe most of all, the outsider in the MVP race, Christian McCaffrey. 49ers to cover
The Steelers have won the last two meetings with the Browns in Pittsburgh, but they've lost the last three in Cleveland. It took till the end of the season for the Steelers to step up, and they've won three games against three moderately good teams. What they've done is elevate their offense to being more aggressive and have gone over the total in the last three games. They go hand in hand. Cleveland has lost four games in a row, covering last week against the Bills. The Browns are still at the bottom of most NFL categories on offense. Steelers to cover.
This week with the Colts, expect a conservative passing game and the NFL’s No. 6 rush attack playing a defense that is last in quarterback sacks and second to last in interceptions, with a turnover margin of -5 on the season. This is it for the Colts' playoff hopes. They're going to have to play one of their better defensive games of the year and hope to get by with Philip Rivers. I like the Colts getting points, and for that to happen, the under is also in play.
The Patriots are 11-3, and the Ravens are 7-7, while losing two of their last three games, and yet we have the Ravens as a 3-point favorite at home. Are we still holding on to hope with the Ravens like we were doing with the Chiefs? What this line is telling me is that the Ravens would be favored on a neutral field, and I have a hard problem accepting that. Lamar Jackson looks tired, and his 333 yards rushing is a career low by at least 400 yards. He's not the same, and the Ravens are not the same. So how are the Patriots getting points? I don't know, but I am betting on the value with the Patriots.
It's going to be 34° with 16 mph winds and 0% chance of precipitation in Chicago. This is part two of a series that the Packers won 28-21 in the first meeting 2 wedeeks ago. That's a game I feel the Bears should have won. The thing I like the most about the Bears is their No. 2-ranked running game that averages 152 yards a game. I think the running back duo is going to do their thing, with Caleb Williams only having to pitch in on a couple of key moments. Too many Packer injuries, and the Bears lead the NFL with a +20 turnover ratio. Bears to win.
The Rams have won four out of the last five meetings with the Seahawks, including this year's 21-19 win, where the Seahawks outgained the Rams 414 to 249. Both teams come in with 11-3 and 10-4 ATS records. Between RB's Blake Corum and Kyren Williams, the Rams should have a bigger impact on the ground when they met the first time. The Seahawks have won four games in a row, and eight of their last nine, but their last four wins since losing to the Rams were against the Colts quarterbacked by Grandpa Rivers, the Falcons, the Vikings, and the Titans. Sam Darnold has looked his worst of the season, throwing 6 touchdowns and 6 picks in his last six games. Rams to win.