The Bills are the No. 1 scoring team in the NFL at 33.3 points per game, while the Vikings are the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing only 13.3 points per game. They clash on Monday night in Minnesota, and I'm leaning toward the Over because the Bills allow 25.9 points per game. That's an average of 59.2 points per game that the Bills produce. They also allow 352 yards per game, which is good enough for 24th in the league, and I think Carson Wentz can expose them at home a little. The Bills have gone over all five games when the total is 50 or less. Over is the play.

James Cook III has played in seven games, and he has 707 rushing yards along with seven touchdowns scored in his last six games. He's gone over 95 yards in four of the seven games. The total for this game is 87.5 yards. But the number that keeps popping up in my head is his carries for the game at 18.5. He's gone over that total in his last three games and five of his seven games. The Vikings have the No. 16 rush defense, holding opponents to 116 yards per game. I think the Bills will run Cook at least 21 times in this game for a yardage variance between 65 and 130 yards. I'm on the over for carries at 18.5.

Caleb Williams has had a remarkable three-game stretch where the Bears won and covered each, and Williams played like the MVP in each game. It was basically the same game against the Seahawks that he had against the Patriots and that he had against the Falcons. He was so business-like and made everything look so easy. Just another day at the office for Williams. All three of those games went over the total, and I can't think of any reason why tonight's game won't be the same against a lesser defense. Over is the way to go in this game.

The Buccaneers just passed the Bears as the top rushing team in the NFL, averaging 168 yards per game. They gained the achievement last week when they rushed 56 times for 324 yards in a downpour without completing a single pass. The Buccaneers are also ranked last in passing with 131 yards per game. I think that's going to be a problem tonight because the Bears have the No. 3-ranked rushing defense, allowing only 86 yards per game. Baker Mayfield is going to have to play his best game of the year to beat the Bears, and I don't know if he's capable of doing that. The Bears have won and covered their last three games and five of their last six. Bears keep rolling.

The Packers and Patriots are both 5-3, but I like what the Packers have been doing lately with their sneaky pass rush. They're tied with the Patriots at 22 sacks each, which is tied for sixth, but it's the way the Packers unleash the secret pass rusher. It's very effective and has been inspired by new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, the former coach of the Cardinals. It’s a small part of the game but very effective at slowing drives. The Packers have won thanks in part to the pass rush and have covered their last five games in a row despite having the league's worst running game. The Patriots haven't covered their last three ball games. I took the points with Green Bay.

The Lions have won and covered three of the last four meetings with the Dolphins. Sunday's game is about who they are right now. The Dolphins are 1-6, with their only win coming against the Jets two weeks ago. The Lions have won their last three games and got their defense tested against the Vikings and Packers. But that third game was in Arizona, where they won 45-21, showing they can pummel a bad team on offense. That's what I'm looking for in this game: a one-sided Lions win by 10 points or more. The Lions have the No. 1 offense in the NFL, averaging 395 yards, and this is another chance for them to flex their muscles.

The Eagles have lost six straight after starting 2-0, and they've covered only once in their eight games so far this season. In the last 3 weeks, they've played without Jalen Hurts, who is out for the season after finding blood clots in his lungs while in London. Nick Sirianni's already apologizing for the season. J.J. McCarthy is looking like Jaxson Dart was supposed to look for the Giants. Cam Skattebo had his best day as a pro in the Giants 27-21 overtime win at Houston. John Harbaugh is making the winning moves on the fly. That makes the Giants 4-2-1, covering five games, and in first place in the NFC East. Giants to cover.

The Ravens have lost three straight and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, and they enter tonight’s game with backup quarterback Joe Fagnano, who will make his NFL debut as a starter. Jacoby Brissett will start next week against the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are positioning themselves for the playoffs, led by Trevor Lawrence, who has 17 touchdowns, only four interceptions, and a 112.6 rating. The Jaguars +85 point differential is the best in the league. In his last three games, Derrick Henry has only 156 yards and a 3.5 average. He's a candidate to be traded before the November 10th deadline. The Jaguars defense will be stacking the line to slow Henry and dare Fagnano to beat them. Jaguars cover.

Parker Washington is on the verge of having his best season in his 4th year, as Trevor Lawrence is also having his best season. He comes off a 42-7 Jaguars win against the Colts, where he was targeted only twice and had one reception for 16 yards. Expect a bounce-back game under the bright lights. That gives him 27 receptions on the season for 432 yards with four touchdowns and a season-long pass reception of 51 yards. But before the Colts game, he was targeted 11 times in a competitive game against Houston, and before that, against the Eagles, he was targeted nine times for 124 yards. He's the leading receiver on Jacksonville, and I like him to get over 62 yards receiving tonight.

I thought highly of the Bears, but their last two games have led me to believe they are Super Bowl-bound because of how quarterback Caleb Williams has led this team. It's not just his throwing; he commands respect in the huddle, and his teammates listen. He's the star, and everybody on the Bears knows it, and now they're going to ride his coattails to get a ring. His game at Atlanta, where he was 30 of 36 for 305 yards, was impressive, but his game against the Patriots last week is a game that sold me. The Patriots have an outstanding defense, and for him to throw for 308 yards, two touchdown passes, and a 116.7 QB rating was outstanding perfection. Bears to win.

The Seahawks have the No. 1 defense in the NFL, allowing only 233 yards per game, but the Bears have the No. 3 offense along with the No. 1 rushing attack. The Bears are using the running game to set up the brilliant aerial attack from Caleb Williams. If you're a defense trying to defend Williams, this kind of puts you in a pickle. The Bears average 25.7 points per game. What do you choose to stop? The Seahawks offense helps the opposing team's offense by turning the ball over 13 times this season. There are only two teams that have more turnovers than the Seahawks. I think these two teams get in a shootout.

I love this Caleb Williams yardage prop over. This is a guy who looks like a young Reggie Jackson, and he's the straw that stirs the drink for this Bears squad. The Seahawks made quick work of the Chiefs last week, 20-3, but this Bears team is of a different caliber. When I look at Caleb Williams away stats, he's 51 of 65 for 574 yards, 3 touchdown passes, and no picks with a QB rating of 118.8. He also has 2 road rushing touchdowns. He's not going to be phased by the Seahawks defense or their crowd. He's going to go to work and get his 300 yards passing, a win, and call it a night.

The Cardinals have won and covered the last four meetings with the Cowboys, including last year at Dallas. They've also won and covered eight out of the last nine meetings with the Cowboys. The Cowboys have the No. 29-ranked defense, allowing 373 yards per game, and the Cardinals might get that running game going because Dallas has the No. 31 run defense. The Cowboys are only 3-4 on the season, but everybody says they're going to be better than that, and then they go off and lose at home to Tampa Bay. I see this team tripping over their opponents for the rest of the season and ending the season at 8-9. The Cardinals know who they are. They beat the Cowboys. Cardinals to cover.

AFC North rivals Pittsburgh and Cleveland come in with the same records at 5-2 straight up and ATS, as well as going over the total four times. What separates them at the moment was a Week 4 win for the Browns, 27-24, at Cleveland. Since then, the Steelers have won three games in a row; they've also covered all three games and you can see a growing process with the Steelers unit that has the No. 6 defense, allowing 303 yards per game as well as only allowing the opposing QBs a 79.3% rating, which is No. 6 in the NFL. This team is going to be a problem in the playoffs. The Browns haven’t swept the Steelers since 1988. Steelers to win.

The Packers have the NFL's worst running game, averaging 59.9 yards per game, but they should get relief with the return of Josh Jacobs, who has been suspended all season. He came back last week and looked okay until he dropped the game-winning pass against the Lions, and then they missed a field goal and lost 20-17. But the good news with the Packers is that they had won three straight games before the loss at Detroit. Green Bay's passing game has gone very well, with Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Tucker Kraft consistently open for Jordan Love. Carolina is a bad team disguised well sometimes. The Packers receivers will be the storyline tonight; I'm on the Packers to cover.