Broncos getting points at home? Okay...

Raiders are 2-0 SU & ATS...

The Chargers need some juice...

Michael Penix will be in at quarterback for the Falcons, who have been averaging 8 points a game with QB's Cooper Rush and Jack Strand playing. They've averaged only 262 yards per game, with many experts calling them the worst team in football. The only offensive highlight for the Falcons is their running game averaging 138 yards per game. Defensively, the Packers are No. 2 in the league, allowing 2.9 yards per rush. I think Penix will be better than what they've been offering, and I think the defense of the Falcons will slow the Packers down. They are No. 1 in the NFL, allowing only 63 yards rushing per game. They've stayed under in both their games so far. Under is the play.

The Giants won last week, beating the Cowboys, and I'm sure everybody's going to like them this week. Also, the Rams struggled in Week 1 against the 49ers in Australia. But me liking the Giants has everything to do with what John Harbaugh has done for the Giants, merging all their early-round draft picks with key free agents, like his former Ravens at fullback and tight end. Jaxson Dart looked the best I've ever seen him as a quarterback. He was in control. He knew where to go with the football, and every time he was right in his choice. The Giants play in Hollywood, which is a perfect backdrop for Dart and Cam Skattebo. The Giants Super Bowl run makes a statement in LA.

The Colts have lost eight straight games, and they started the new season by getting blitzkrieged at home against the Ravens. The Chiefs come off an impressive 31-10 win over the Broncos, where their running game led the way with a strong defensive effort. Kenneth Walker had 173 yards, and he set the tone for the entire game early on. In Week 1, both teams were at their extreme opposites. The Chiefs played it smart on offense, where Patrick Mahomes got rid of the ball as soon as he got it. No worries about the left tackle situation and no worries about Mahomes' ACL injury. I think the Colts will play them tight and cover as they have in the last three meetings.

The Cowboys have covered five of the last six meetings against Washington. Dak Prescott is 7-0 in his last seven meetings against Washington in Dallas, and he's been flawless as a passer, with 20 touchdown passes and no picks. Dallas was on the road last week against a fired-up Giants squad, and we didn't get to really see the Dallas passing game shine. I think they showed who they are against Washington, who lost to a Philadelphia squad last week that had only 10 first downs. Cowboys at home get the cover.

We've got ideal football weather in Buffalo on Thursday night at 68° with 4 mph winds and only a 3% chance of rain. It's a new stadium for the Bills; welcome to Highmark Stadium, but it's the same defenses for both teams. The Lions allowed 30 points to the Saints last week, as the Bills allowed 31 points to the Texans. I think this is a back-and-forth game with both offenses doing pretty much everything they set out to do. It'll be an entertaining first game for Buffalo's new stadium. Over is the best play.

I'm expecting a high-scoring game, and I think the Lions are going to attack Buffalo's defense with the ground game. The Texans had a lot of success with it last week and held the ball for 36:17 minutes in the game and only 23:43 minutes for the Bills. The Texans rushed the ball 30 times for 124 yards. The Lions have a great running back in Jahmyr Gibbs, who rushed 29 times for 156 yards and two touchdowns in the 31-30 win over the Saints. I think Gibbs gets over 90 yards. Over the total is the play.

I can get excited about my bet, knowing I have an edge: Patrick Mahomes is playing his first game back since the ACL injury, and he's got his left tackle, Josh Simmons, out for the game, and rookie Kahlil Benson moves over from right tackle to make his first start at left tackle. All this happens against the NFL's No. 1 sack team last season with 68 sacks. A new guy with little experience protecting Mahomes blind side vs. a fierce pass rush? That's an edge that gets me pumped about my bet, and I'm getting points on top of it against a team that went 6-11 and missed the playoffs last year. Broncos to win.

The AFC West has seen a change of guard, and the biggest reason is Bo Nix's maturation as the Broncos' quarterback. The Chiefs had won 16 straight games against the Broncos until Denver won four of the last five, including the last three. In last year's game at Kansas City, he rushed 9 times for 42 yards and a TD, and I like him to score a touchdown here. He broke his ankle last season, and I don't expect him to be his normal self running the ball, but with a touchdown on the line, he’ll do the unexpected for a player coming off an injury. He scored five touchdowns last year, including one at Kansas City.

The Cowboys give plenty of reasons to bet them against the Giants, such as being 16-2 in the last 18 meetings. You've also got the Giants saddled with a 3-17 record in their last 20 prime time games, and this is the first Sunday night game of the season. But the positives with the Giants are that they’re not the old Giants. They've got John Harbaugh as their new head coach, and he's all business. The Giants haven't had a no-nonsense head coach since Tom Coughlin. Jaxson Dart starts his second year, and as a rookie, he showed he’s got moxie. In his last start of the season last year, he beat the Cowboys, throwing two touchdowns and no picks. Giants to win.

Jaxson Dart completed 63% of his passes last season for 15 touchdowns and five interceptions in his 14 games, but where he gained his most notoriety was as a QB running for 487 yards and 9 TDs. Sunday night, New York will be the game of the day against the hated Dallas Cowboys, with the biggest spotlight available. Dart loves the spotlight. I think Dart's going to take advantage of all the cameras and use the media to further enhance his brand and make himself the story. He's a flashy guy, and he plays that way. Dart scores a touchdown on the ground.

The Cardinals No. 3 overall pick, Jeremiyah Love, makes his NFL debut at the Los Angeles Chargers where the Cardinals went from a 10.5-point underdog in the opening line to 9. I'm expecting his rushing and receiving yards to be over the expected total. The question on Love coming into this game was how much he would play, and head coach Mike LaFleur said there will be no limits placed on him. He experienced a high ankle sprain in his first preseason game last month. He's been limited in practice, and now he's ready to go in his first regular-season game. He will not be on a snap count. Over the total rushing and receiving.

Baker Mayfield signed a $165M extension, and in his last three Week 1's with Tampa Bay, he's 3-0 with 9 touchdowns and 0 picks. The Buccaneers missed the playoffs last year, going 8-9, while the Bengals have missed the playoffs the last 3 years. Joe Burrow has his star receivers, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, healthy. But what he might also have that he hasn't in the past is a strong defense led by the signing of Dexter Lawrence and three other defenders. That defensive hype has me believing and betting the under in this game.