Prop's Picks (2 Live)
Caesar’s. Scoot Henderson is under this line in 5/7 games without Jerami Grant this season in regulation. Tonight should be a playoff atmosphere against the slow paced Clippers - I like Portland to lean on Deni Avdija and Jrue Holiday tonight. The wildcard is Shaedon Sharpe’s return; the dynamic guard will play after a 28-game absence. Even though Sharpe will be heavily limited, it does give Portland another on-ball option that could cut into Scoot’s usage.
DraftKings. Tatsuya Imai rebounded from an auspicious first start with nine strikeouts in 5.2 scoreless frames against the A’s. He’ll now face the Mariners whose bats are once again dormant to start the season, especially at home. We’re still in projection mode when it comes to Imai, but his two primary pitches profile as upper echelon swing and miss types, and of course we have the added bump of the Mariners not having seen the righty before. I have him projected right at 6, and would bet this to -110.
FanDuel (-112). I am once again going to fade the tanking Nets on their team total. Tonight, they will face the Bucks in what profiles as a snail-like matchup. Both teams are in the bottom eight of the NBA in team pace. And with each squad actively looking to lose, we’re sure to see some questionable offense. These two teams played just three days ago in a game that only had 93 offensive possessions - two full possessions slower than the Celtics, who are the league’s slowest team. The Nets actually shot at a league average rate in that game, and didn’t turn the ball over, and only mustered 90 points.
FanDuel. Scottie Barnes is under this combined points, rebounds and assists line in 25/38 games this season against teams that rank in the top half of the NBA of paint protection, including 12 of the last 13. The Knicks allow the third fewest paint points, as well as the sixth fewest rebound and third fewest assists. Brandon Ingram’s mid-range and pull-up arsnenal, as well as RJ Barrett’s long range shooting are better means to attack this Knick defense, especially with Barnes likely drawing the OG Anunoby individual matchup. Plus, Barnes has not performed well in back to backs all season, averaging 25.5 PRA. Bet this one down to under 30.5 with confidence.
FanDuel. Without Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard has been thrust into an on-ball role to complement LeBron James. He’s cleared this line in each of the last two games, and should be in position once again tonight. The Warriors have allowed the tenth most assists over their last ten games, and they shoot a ton of threes, producing a lot of long rebounds for Kennard to capitalize on. Besides LeBron, nobody on the Lakers can create their own shot, and Kennard has been moving the ball at an elite pace (1.7 passes per minute over the last two games). And I do see the Lakers going all out to win tonight for playoff seeding.
Caesar’s. Randy Vasquez has tweaked his pitch mix and lowered his arm angle this season - and the results have been solid so far. He’s recorded 13 and 14 whiffs in his two starts - last season his high was 10. Pitching to a 0.75 ERA and keeping his ground ball rate elite (94th percentile), he seems poised to be able to work deeper into games this season. A two game sample is not nearly enough, but this is a low line, and we get to test Vásquez’ new approach in the first “Coors effect” game of the season for the Rockies. Colorado, coming off their first homestand, has a 27% K% (fifth highest) and the eighth highest called plus swinging strike rate (28.6%).
FanDuel. This is one of the most “important” games on the schedule for Brooklyn tonight. After going out of their way to lose games all season, the Nets have inexplicably won their last two games, meaning they have lose out to guarantee top three lottery odds (i.e. the best chance at the #1 and/or a top 4 pick). Predictably, they are benching anyone who can score even remotely efficiently tonight. And schematically, the Nets will be playing a bunch of guards/wings who struggle to finish at the rim against a team that funnels ball-handlers that way.
Caesar’s. Ryan Weathers has yet to finish five innings in each of his first two starts as a Yankee. The oft injured lefty has struggled with his pitch efficiency, throwing 4.34 pitches per plate appearance. And what’s been noticeable in both starts is the fatigue that has set in, with diminished velocity off his main pitches towards the end of each outing. Coming back on four days rest again, and Yankees manager Aaron Boone yet to let Weathers get deep into the opposing batting order a third time through, I expect a quick hook today. Boone has multiple long relief options he can use (Yarbrough, Winquest, Blackburn), and the A’s have done a solid job of making the Yankee starter work hard all series.
DraftKings / Caesar’s. With Mark Williams ruled out, this reads as a solid spot to back Oso Ighodaro. The Suns big man had cleared this line in six of the last eight games in Williams’ absence, and had acquitted himself well in a reserve roll. Williams’ return had re-emphasized the need to get post touches for the Suns, and this is a solid spot to do so for Oso. The Mavericks have remained a paint funnel almost all season, ranking 28th in points at the rim and 26th in points to pick and roll men.
Caesar’s. In 16 games without Victor Wembanyama this season, Keldon Johnson has cleared this rebound line a whopping 15 times, including 10 and 8 in two matchups against Portland. In 729 minutes this season without both Wemby and Stephon Castle on the floor, Johnson sees the biggest uptick in his rebounds with 6.4 per just 24 minutes. The Spurs do not have much to play for, so minutes could get wonky, but I do think this is worth a bet at plus odds.
FanDuel. One of the more underrated aspects of Jalen Johnson’s progression into stardom this season has been his improvement as a jump shooter. The first-time All Star is shooting 35% on 4.8 threes attempted per game. And since March 1st - he’s up to 39% on 5.3 attempts. Tonight is a great spot to fire on his three point prop as he’ll face the twin tower defense of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen inside. Cleveland is sixth in paint points allowed, and 12th in transition points allowed - when Johnson faces teams in the top 18 of both metrics, he’s cleared this line in 15/21 games, since the Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis departures.
FanDuel. After a rocky start at Yankee Stadium, Eury Perez returns home where he’s traditionally fared much better (lifetime K% of 31% with a .256 wOBA at Loan Depot park compared to 27% and .325 on the road). He’ll face a Reds lineup that has the second highest called strike rate this season - a key indicator of 2 strike counts. Perez has an elite swing and miss arsenal, and will face a lineup that features seven hitters with above average strikeout rates so far this season.
DraftKings. Kyle Bradish is off to a bit of an auspicious start to his 2026, with a 6.27 ERA. He does have 10 strikeouts in 8.2 innings however, and his indicators (2.79 xERA) show he’s due for positive regression. A good spot to test that is today against the White Sox, who are striking out at a 28.2% rate against righties thus far, and have a measley .581 OPS.