Prop's Picks (1 Live)
Caesar’s. After their sell-off yesterday, Troy Melton assumes the role of Tigers ace. The righty has pitched like one, with a 1.75 era (3.26 xERA) this season. He’s able to avoid hard contact and barrels at an above average rate, leading to an elite .220 xBA and .287 xwOBA (74th and 85th percentile’s respectively). He’s under this line in 10/11 starts, and has only allowed even 2+ runs in three of those outings. He’ll square off against the Mariners who’ve only managed a .654 OPS against righties since the All Star Break. And as per usual, they’ve struggled to produce at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park all season (.714 OPS versus righties).
DraftKings. After a brutal start to the season, Brady Singer has been much better of late. Since May 30th, the Reds righty has pitched to a 2.92 ERA, while allowing a .219 average against (.235 xBA). He’s stayed under this line in 7/11 starts in that span, including 5/6 at home. He’ll take on the Athletics, one of the few teams who enjoy an even stronger hitter’s advantage at home. When pulled away from Sacramento (or Las Vegas), the A’s have hit .222 against righties since June 1st (544 plate appearances). I like Singer to keep the A’s at bay today.
FanDuel. I love this plus odds look at Logan Henderson’s strikeouts today. The Brewers righty has cleared this line in 5/9 starts despite a disproportionate schedule - only 2/9 teams he’s faced were in the bottom half of the league of K% at the time. Today, he’ll see the Pirates who have the fifth highest strikeout rate against righties this season. And over the last two weeks: 25.8% K% while only managing a .667 OPS. The Pirates have also struggled against power pitchers all season, accruing a 30% K%. Look for Henderson’s changeup to give the Pirates fits today.
DraftKings / B365. Grayson Rodriguez makes his return to Camden Yards tonight. The former Oriole has struggled mightily this season, pitching to a 7.98 era, and staying under this outs prop in 9/10 starts. The oft-injured righty has specifically struggled against lefties, who are hitting .365 with a 1.056 OPS against him. The Orioles should be able to throw five lefties into the lineup today, and potentially more, depending on who they promote from the minors after trading away two starters yesterday. Baltimore has also maintained its status as one of the more patient teams at the plate all season, seeing the most pitches per plate appearance, and with the sixth lowest chase rate. Bet this down to under 15.5 outs.
DraftKings. Michael King is under this line in 15/22 starts for the Padres this season. While the Diamondbacks have been moderately hot of late, they only have two hitters in the lineup today with an expected batting average over .240 versus right handed pitchers this season. King has had success against his division rival in the past, and the Diamondbacks are not a good changeup hitting team – King’s primary and best pitch.
DraftKings. I’m already on his bases prop, but you can argue that the best value for Jeremy Pena resides on his runs prop. He’s scored at least one run in 60% of his full games this season, including 15/20 full games at home. Shane Bieber has really struggled (5.74 ERA), and Pena will be backed by a scorching hot Yordan Alvarez. Between the two props, I’m betting two units on Pena tonight.
DraftKings. Jeremy Pena is on a tear - the Astros shortstop is hitting .389 since July 1st. Overall this season, Pena is hitting .337 versus righties, .381 at home, and .405 when you combine both splits. He’s cleared this bases prop in 11 of his last 12 games, and in 15/20 full games at home versus a righty starter. He’ll face Shane Bieber to start - the Blue Jays righty has allowed righties to hit 21/59 off him (.356), and also struggled in his minor league rehab outings. I love this spot for Pena, so much so that I’m going to double up with his runs prop as well.
Caesar’s / B365. Kyle Bradish has been excellent at home this season, staying under this hits allowed line in 8/10 starts. His .187 average allowed at home is relatively in line with what we’ve seen from the righty at Camden Yards dating back to 2023. Bradish will face a Phillies lineup that’s only hitting .218 against righties since July 1st. Today’s lineup only features two hitters with an xBA over .253 against righties. To top it off, we’ll have some in-game rain delay potential if they decide to start on time.
Caesar’s / DK. It’s rare to find a hit rate like this at this point in the season, but opponents have 5+ hits against George Kirby in 18/20 of his starts. He’s been hittable this season, with a .278 average against, and a .257 xBA, while still maintaining his pitch efficiency and low walk rate (5%). Even though the Twins bats have cooled off, they have the 10th highest in zone swing rate this season, which should bode well against the strike throwing Kirby. The Mariners righty allows a hit every 14 pitches thrown, giving us plenty of buffer for the Twins to pick up five today.
DraftKings. This is a big ask of Emmet Sheehan, who has only completed six full innings in five of 19 starts. On the heels of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s eight-inning performance, the Dodger bullpen is in great shape, and Sheehan has been on a shorter leash as is (86 pitches per start). In a game to avoid a home sweep against the Red Sox, look for a quick hook on Sheehan if needed. Bet it down to under 16.5 (which he’s stayed under in 13/19 starts).
Caesar’s. Chase Burns has been electric this season for the Reds, but the rookie is still under this outs line in half of his 20 outings. That includes six of his last eight starts, as the fading Reds (5.5 games back of the wild card, with five teams ahead of them) have less and less reason to push their ace. Burns will face a tough test against the Pirates who are ninth in OPS against righties since July 1st (.760), and 12th in pitches per plate appearance (3.91).
DraftKings. Tyler Mahle is another guy who could be making his final start for his current team. The trade candidate has been objectively awful on the road this season with an 8.05 ERA, and staying under this line in 7/8 starts. The Giants bullpen is rested, and it serves them zero purpose to leave Mahle on the mound if he struggles. Plus, the Padres offense is on fire, with a .942 OPS out of the break against righties.
Caesar’s. Since the beginnings of April, Logan Gilbert has pitched to a 3.13 ERA while clearing this line in 13/19 outings, including nine of his last 12 starts. He’ll face a Twins lineup that’s cooled off offensively out of the break, with just a .659 OPS against righties.
Caesar’s. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is under this line in 15/19 starts this season. The righty remains one of baseball’s best with a .190 average against and a .226 expected average against. He’s also been able to keep the ball on the ground 48% of the time (77th percentile). The Red Sox, despite their recent success, have not been crushing the ball, only hitting .231 against righties out of the break. And against ground ball pitchers, the Sox are only at .221 this season as a team.
DraftKings. This is an easy fade spot for Kodai Senga, who is making a surprise spot start for Freddy Peralata. Senga has been dreadful this season with an 8.85 ERA. He’s been relegated to the bullpen and hasn’t eclipsed 61 pitches since June, and hasn’t pitched at all in two weeks. A highly inefficient pitcher, and with the Mets bringing up a long reliever for reinforcements, Senga should have a quick outing today.