Prop's Picks (2 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
FanDuel. Nikola Jovic has cleared this line in 11 of the last 15 games. With Jimmy Butler shipped out to Golden State, and Andrew Wiggins not yet ready to make his Heat debut, this is yet another nice spot to fire on the Heat sophomore. His minutes floor has been incredibly secure, even off the bench - it wouldn’t shock me to see him push 30+ against a Nets team that runs smaller (negating the need for the Heat to run two bigs). The Nets are also well below average defensively against what Jovic does well (spot up shooting and fastbreak points).
DraftKings. Dyson Daniels has cleared this line in 7 of his last 8 games. Specifically in the last six games (corresponding with Jalen Johnson’s season ending injury), Daniels is averaging 12.3 potential assists per game, with 10+ in each contest over that span. Now with the Hawks sans DeAndre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic, Daniels will likely take on an even larger on-ball role. He’s been strong on the boards too, and the Bucks are a solid matchup for non-center rebounds. Milwaukee allows the fifth most rebounds per game overall, but the 13th fewest to opposing centers.
FanDuel (15+ points at -125). Rui Hachimura is coming off three consecutive 20-point performances for the Lakers. With Anthony Davis shipped out to Dallas, Dalton Knecht to Charlotte, and Luka Doncic not quite ready to play yet, Hachimura will be counted on to supplement LeBron James and Austin Reaves offensively. It’s a great matchup for Hachimura too - the Warriors allow the third most points to spot up shooters (36% of Hachimura’s points).
FanDuel. Averaging 18.7 points per game this season, Michael Porter Jr. has stayed under this line in 15/29 games playing alongside both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. When you include Aaron Gordon, the under has hit in 17 of 25 games. And for Porter Jr., who garners 43% of his points via spot up shooting and transition, this is a brutal matchup. The Magic rank in the top five against both playtypes, and are the best team at limiting points above-the-break.
Caesar’s. Klay Thompson is under this in 9 of 15 games with Kyrie Irving and without Luka Doncic (whom you might have heard is not a Mav anymore). This is a brutal matchup for his play style, against a Celtics defense that allows the third fewest points per game to spot up shooters, and sixth fewest in transition. Plus, Klay’s minutes floor has not been as stable, as the Mavs have a litany of guards/wings to deploy. 0.75u at under 18.5 PRA.
Averaging 12.4 rebounds per game this season, I’m banking on Isaiah Hartenstein to grab at least one 12 rebounds tonight. Not only has he cleared this line in six straight games, but he has an 80% success rate (16/20) on this line, if you strip out teams in the top 10 of rebounds allowed. The Suns are 20th in that department, while specifically allowing the seventh most rebounds to opposing centers, and the eighth most offensive rebounds per game. While a blowout is a concern (especially since the Suns will be without Kevin Durant), Hartenstein has been able to clear this line even in reduced minutes.
DraftKings. Zach Edey has been cooking recently. He’s cleared this line in 5 of the last 6 games (20+ points + rebounds in each over). He now gets a Raptors squad that he had one of his best performances against earlier this season (21 points and 16 rebounds). Toronto will also be without Jakob Poeltl, which leaves the Raptors without a decent matchup for the Grizzlies big man. Would also bet this up to over 18.5, or over 19.5 PRA.
FanDuel. With Kyle Kuzma shipped out to Milwaukee, the Wizards rebuild is in full swing. One key piece of the young core is Bilal Coulibaly. After a down few weeks, Coulibaly has resurfaced with two straight strong games (23 and 34 PRA, in 37 minutes each contest). Not only should his minutes floor stay high, but he’s cleared this line in 10/16 without Kuzma this season. It’s a fantastic matchup for him as well against a nets team that is bottom 5 in both transition and spot-up points. And I’m happy to jump on this early, as it wouldn’t shock me to see the Wizards other veterans (namely Jonas Valanciunas and Malcolm Brogdon) ruled out tonight as the trade deadline nears.
Caesar’s. Obi Toppin has cleared this line in 9 of last 14 games. Great in transition, he gets a plus spot against the Trailblazers, who allow the sixth most points against the playtype. Myles Turner and Aaron Nesmith are both questionable - the former missed the game last night, and the latter has yet to play in a back to back since coming back from injury. If either of them are ruled out, we’ve secured significant value - but either way, this is a plus spot for Toppin.
FanDuel. 1.2u Nikola Jovic has cleared this line in 12 of his last 15 games, and in 13/18 without Jimmy Butler when playing at least 20 minutes. As the sixth man in the Heat rotation, Jovic has seen consistent playing time, clearing 27 minutes in 11 of his last 13 games. Excellent spot vs the Bulls who play at the league’s third fastest pace, allowing the most points in the paint and the second most assists per game. Would bet at over 11.5 points or over 16.5 points + assists as well (for 1u).
B365. Without PJ Washington, Anthony Davis, or Dwight Powell available, I’m anticipating Naji Marshall seeing an uptick in minutes. And with Joel Embiid active, this now becomes a difficult matchup for Daniel Gafford.
FanDuel. Jalen Green has been on a roll, reaching 24 points in twelve of his last fifteen games. He gets a sneaky solid spot tonight, as the Knicks rank last in the NBA against pick and roll ball-handlers, which is Green’s preferred playtype. And without Fred VanVleet, I expect the ball to be in Green’s hands a lot tonight.
DraftKings. Jalen Duren has been a force for the upstart Pistons of late. Over his last nine games, he’s cleared this line eight times, averaging 27.6 points plus rebounds in that span. As a rim-running big man, Duren almost exclusively operates at the rim. The Hawks are a rim-funnel defensively, allowing the fourth most points at the basket. Against teams ranked in the bottom 12 of at-rim defense, Duren has cleared this line in 12 of 16 games when he plays at least 24 minutes. I’d play this line up to over 24.5 as well.