Larry's Picks (4 Live)
This is an excellent starting pitching matchup, but it's the Orioles who should have a solid advantage in the later innings. Baltimore owns a 3.62 bullpen ERA, compared to Cleveland's 5.08 bullpen ERA. Guardians star Jose Ramirez is batting .205 and fouled a pitch off his shin in Wednesday's loss at St. Louis. He's expected to play, but is not the same offensive force, at least not yet.
Forward Gui Santos will start for Golden State, and I like him to grab six or more rebounds at plus money. In his last two meetings with the Clippers, Santos collected seven rebounds (17 minutes) and 10 rebounds (31 minutes). Based on the personnel the Warriors are rolling with, look for the high-motor Santos to be active on the glass.
Desmond Bane cleared this prop total in two of three meetings with Philly this season, the exception coming in a 144-103 Magic blowout in which he produced a ridiculous plus-44 in the box score in 29 minutes. In the other two matchups with the 76ers, Bane put up 23 points and five rebounds, and 24 points and three rebounds. Bane was awesome in two play-in games last season for Memphis, pouring in 52 points with 11 rebounds. Look for a tight game in which Bane plays about 35 minutes and goes Over.
The Guardians imploded with a late error in Tuesday's loss at St. Louis, but I like them to bounce back and win the rubber game. Cards starter Dustin May was shelled in his first two starts before shutting down the Red Sox last time out. For the season, he has given up a whopping 53.2 percent hard-hit rate. Slade Cecconi also has been bad in two of his three starts, but this is a nice price on the better overall team.
Jalen Green sat out the final two regular-season games with a knee injury, and he played just four minutes last Wednesday vs. Dallas. But he's off the injury report and should see 30-plus minutes in this play-in game vs. Portland. In games with three or more days' rest, Green has averaged 19.6 points in just 22 minutes of action. He shot 47.7 percent from the field and 40 percent from deep. With Jrue Holiday expected to primarily guard Devin Booker, Green will be tasked with handling a lot of the scoring load.
Tyler Herro sat out Friday with foot soreness and then played just 22 minutes in Sunday's rout of the Hawks. Miami was saving Herro for Tuesday's play-in game at Charlotte. Herro put up 33 points and 20 points in two meetings with the Hornets last month, going 9 of 12 from deep and 12 of 12 from the foul line combined. The Heat will need a huge game from Herro to pull off the upset, so I'm betting on Erik Spoelstra giving Herro 35-plus minutes.
The Pirates are probably glad they didn't trade Mitch Keller, as the 30-year-old is off to a dominant start. With increased use of a changeup, Keller sports a 1.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Pittsburgh should have success against struggling Miles Mikolas (12.41 ERA) and an already-depleted Washington bullpen. Back the Pirates, who are 9-3 in their last 12 games, on the run line.
Look for the Dodgers to bounce back from Sunday's loss and get to Mets lefty David Peterson. The 2025 All-Star posted an 8.42 ERA over his last nine starts of last season, and so far in 2026 he owns a 6.14 ERA over three starts. The Mets desperately miss Juan Soto (calf). They have scored a total of nine runs during their current five-game skid.
Bucks forward Ousmane Dieng is making his case to be Milwaukee's starting small forward of the future. The 2022 lottery pick has shown terrific passing skills, part of an all-around game that's blossoming with major minutes. Milwaukee is so short-handed for this regular-season finale, I expect Dieng to play at least 30 minutes and possibly close to 40.
The Angels have won all three of Jose Soriano's starts, which is no surprise given his 0.45 ERA and 0.65 WHIP. Soriano's dominance appears to be sustainable given his increased velocity and improved knuckle-curve. Andrew Abbott has been solid for the host Reds. But the Halos' offense has performed better lately, ranking 10th in OPS over the past seven days compared to Cincy's 21st ranking. Take the Angels in Sunday's rubber game.
With Portland vying for the No. 8 seed and currently sitting one game behind the Clippers, expect another huge workload for Deni Avdija. He has played 37, 40 and 38 minutes this month. Avdija has faced the Clippers three times this season, racking up seven, nine and 11 boards. The 11-rebound performance came March 31 in LA. Look for Avdija to grab seven-plus rebounds for the fifth time in his last seven games.