Aaron Nola has given up six homers in his last three starts. When he faced the Pirates in Pittsburgh a little over a month ago, they hammered him for six earned runs in 3.2 innings. Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft brings an expected ERA of 2.88. Look for Pittsburgh to turn the tide in an in-state series that the Phils have dominated lately.
Shane Baz is struggling versus left-handed batters, giving up a .470 slugging percentage and an .825 OPS. He also is prone to issuing more walks when facing lefties. The White Sox will throw a lefty-heavy lineup at Baz. Chicago starter Sean Burke has performed better on the road (4-1, 3.06 ERA). Back the visiting White Sox to at least be tied through five.
The Diamondbacks scored a total of four runs in getting swept at Tampa Bay. Then they had to fly cross-country. But I love this bounceback spot at home against the Giants and Tyler Mahle. Arizona faced Mahle twice in late May, hammering him for two homers and nine earned runs in 10 innings. Mahle is coming off a sterling outing vs. the Athletics, but that was at home. On the road he's 0-4 with an 8.88 ERA. The D-Backs have won 12 of ace Eduardo Rodriguez's last 14 starts.
I'm backing the host Red Sox to complete a sweep of the Yankees. Boston ranks third in OPS against left-handers (.766) and has a positive run differential this season despite being 11 games under .500. While Sonny Gray hasn't been dominant, he has not given up more than three runs in a start since mid-April. That includes June 5, when he allowed three runs over 6.1 innings in a 5-3 win at Yankee Stadium.
Hunter Brown did not have good command last time out, but I like him to bounce back Sunday against the host Tigers. Detroit’s Jack Flaherty comes off the injured list; his velocity is down and his advanced metrics are concerning. Look for Houston to take the rubber game and send the Tigers to their fifth loss in six games.
The Rays are 11-4 when Nick Martinez starts, and I like them to improve that mark when they host the Diamondbacks. Arizona's Zac Gallen owns an 8.85 ERA in June after posting a 7.04 ERA in May. He ranks in the bottom 4 percent in strikeout rate. This price is cheap on the Rays, who are 28-12 at home.
The Giants' Tyler Mahle returns from the injured list (hamstring) to start against the Athletics. He walked five in his only Triple-A rehab start. Before the injury, Mahle compiled a 6.04 ERA. The 31-year-old has seen a dip in velocity, and I like the Athletics to jump on him. Back them to even this series.
Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore has given up an expected slugging percentage of .501, which ranks in the bottom 4 percent of MLB. He has surrendered 15 homers in 72.1 innings. Arizona's Mitch Bratt is making his major-league debut after posting a 2.84 ERA at Triple-A Reno. That's the lowest ERA in the Pacific Coast League for any pitcher who's thrown at least 40 innings. Back Arizona to at least be tied through five.
Angels starter Ryan Johnson, 23, has a very bright future. But in 13.1 innings this season, he has served up five homers. That sets up nicely for Baltimore power hitters like Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson. The O's have scored 21 runs while winning three in a row. Baltimore starter Shane Baz owns a 2.62 ERA over his last seven starts and has strong numbers (limited sample size) vs. current Angels' batters.
Drew Rasmussen gave up a run for the first time in three starts on June 16 at Dodger Stadium; it came in the sixth inning on a Shohei Ohtani solo shot. Otherwise, the Cy Young candidate has been nearly flawless, posting a 0.43 WHIP this month. Rasmussen has not faced K.C. this season, but current Royals are 6 for 37 with a .400 OPS against him. K.C. starter Michael Wacha has fanned just seven batters in 18.2 innings this month. Current Rays own a .909 OPS against him. Back the hosts to lead after five.
The Mariners have a starting pitching edge with George Kirby facing Kyle Bradish, who owns a 6.18 road ERA. Kirby fanned 10 Orioles on June 10, allowing three runs over six innings. His velocity was up. Look for Kirby to get more run support on Wednesday and for Baltimore to fall to 12-22 on the road.
The Nats have scored 31 runs over their past four games and should have more success Wednesday versus Royals starter Luinder Avila. He has a 6.19 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. Likewise, Kansas City should hit Zack Littell, who sports a 6.19 ERA at home (5.32 overall). The starters are backed by bottom-eight bullpens. We have great hitting conditions as well.
The Cubs are 3 for 31 with runners in scoring position over their past four games, but at least they're generating traffic on the basepaths. That should continue Tuesday vs. Rockies starter Ryan Feltner. Last Thursday in Colorado, the Cubs pounded Felter for six earned runs in 4.1 innings of a 9-3 win. Feltner enters with a 7.71 road ERA. Back the hosts on the run line at plus money.
Drew Rasmussen carries a 0.88 WHIP into Tuesday's game at Dodger Stadium. Over his last two outings, Rasmussen has thrown 14 scoreless innings, allowing three hits and one walk with 22 strikeouts. He's also had success against current Dodgers' batters (.590 OPS in 47 at-bats). Rasmussen gives Tampa Bay an edge in the early going against Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski. The 25-year-old lefty is a regression candidate, toting an expected ERA of 4.19 compared to his actual 2.94 ERA. Both bullpens have been shaky in June so we'll isolate the first five.
Dustin May is averaging less than a strikeout per inning at home, where he sports a 4.85 ERA. The Padres have seen him once this season, and they also faced him in 2025. San Diego has fanned an average of seven times over the past three games, as the Padres' offense finally has woken up. Look for May to stay Under on strikeouts.