Larry's Picks (2 Live)
Larry's Past Picks
The Magic are desperate for production behind Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, and Anthony Black is a good candidate to supply it. He scored 13-plus points in eight of Orlando's final 15 games. The 6-7 guard barely played in last year's postseason, so it was understandable he made little impact in Game 1 in Boston. He played just 14 minutes. But with the way Black scored at the end of the regular season, and with his ability to defend at a high level, expect him to to have a much bigger role Wednesday. I also like that Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley wants his team to push the pace more.
Austin Reaves was hard on himself following the Lakers' Game 1 loss, and I like him to respond in a big way Tuesday. LA needs production from someone besides Luka Doncic, and Reaves is the obvious choice. He'll play 35-40 minutes. He continues to shoot it well from beyond the arc. In April, Reaves shot an eye-popping 52.9 percent drom deep.
Ivica Zubac is indispensable in this series, because the Clippers need him on the floor to have any chance of slowing down Nikola Jokic. Zubac grabbed 13 rebounds in Game 1 (none in overtime) and I like him to corral at least 12 in Game 2. Zubac is playing monster minutes in every competitive game the Clippers have had recently. LA is not bringing any centers off the bench. Several books have moved this prop to 12.5. If you can find that at -115 or better, I'm good with that too for half a unit.
Josh Hart played just 30 minutes in Game 1 after getting into early trouble. He went scoreless in his foul-plagued first half before erupting for 13 points after halftime and finishing with a plus-20 margin. This number has dipped to 11.5 at MGM, but I would still play half a unit Over 12.5 at a cheap price. Hart should play more minutes Monday -- he played monster minutes in last year's postseason -- and he will have space to operate. Detroit is using rim defender Jalen Duren on him as the Pistons can't afford to leave any other Knick open on the perimeter.
Kevon Looney’s minutes vary drastically depending on the matchup. Houston is a matchup in which Looney is needed. He averaged 8.5 rebounds in four games against the Rockets this season, notching at least seven boards each time. I bet him to grab at least five in Game 1.
The Pistons acquired Dennis Schroder in February to help compensate for Jaden Ivey's absence. Since then he's become an increasingly important player for them. Schroder averaged 18.9 minutes in February, 25.3 minutes in March and 32 minutes in April. He has cleared this prop total in 17 of his last 19 games. The Knicks give up the fifth-most points to opposing point guards. Schroder not only backs up Cade Cunningham, he plays alongside him. Even if his minutes dip slightly due to Cunningham getting a monster workload, I still like Schroder to score at least eight points.
Tyler Herro is shooting 44.4 percent from deep this month, and I bet him to make at least three 3-pointers in Friday's win-or-go-home game at Atlanta. Herro faced the Hawks four times this season: Three times he buried four 3-pointers, and in the other game he went 0 for 9 from beyond the arc. That horrific shooting performance came, however, on the second night of a road back-to-back. Herro had played 40 minutes the previous night in Milwaukee, then the Heat flew to Atlanta. The Hawks allow opponents to make 37.6 percent of their 3-point tries, third-worst in the NBA. Herro played 37 minutes in the Heat's 109-90 win over the Bulls on Wednesday. Assuming this game is close, he could play 40 minutes.
Even with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II starting, Daniel Gafford should get about 20 minutes. That's exactly how many Gafford received in the most recent game in which all three played, last Friday's win over Toronto. With the Kings bringing Jonas Valanciunas off the bench, the Mavs need Gafford to match up. Gafford has cleared this prop total in 18 of his last 19 games. I believe we're getting a discount because Gafford managed only three rebounds in 10 minutes vs. Sacramento on Feb. 10. That was an outlier as Kessler Edwards and Olivier-Maxence Prosper combined to play 60 minutes. Neither will play Wednesday. I'm also fine playing this Over 5.5 at plus money.
Grizzlies rookie Zach Edey has seen his minutes increase significantly under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, who loves Edey's relentlessness on the glass and the way his screens free up Memphis' scorers. Edey faced the Warriors on April 1 and grabbed 16 rebounds in 32 minutes. He played well against Golden State in two other games this season, too. Edey's minutes also have risen due to Brandon Clarke's season-ending injury. In six April games, Edey has averaged 15.7 rebounds. With the Warriors giving up the third-most rebounds to opposing centers, I bet Edey to grab 11 or more rebounds in Tuesday's play-in game.
The Cavs are resting most of their starters while the Pacers are going all-out for playoff positioning. Tyrese Haliburton registered just six assists last time out vs. Washington, but in the previous four games he had double-digit assists. This game has a total of 234, the highest on Thursday's board. Look for Haliburton -- averaging 11.1 assists since the All-Star Break -- to dish out at least 10 against Cleveland.
The Rockets are resting most of their key players except Jalen Green, as they've locked up the No. 2 seed. LA is going all-out to secure homecourt advantage in the first round. Kawhi Leonard has cleared this prop total in 10 of his last 12 games and should keep scoring efficiently against this watered-down Houston lineup. He's shooting 51.6 percent since the All-Star Break. This could turn into a blowout, but I still like Leonard to get 22 points before exiting. At 22.5, I would still go Over, but for less than a unit.
Hornets center Mark Williams has played at least 31 minutes in three straight games and continues to be very productive. Tuesday, he plays the fast-paced Grizzlies. On Jan. 23, Williams erupted for 38 points against Memphis in 33 minutes. He shot 13 free throws. Look for Williams to score at least 15 points in the rematch.
The only bad game Quentin Grimes has had lately came against Miami, when he scored 15 points on 6-of-14 shooting in a March 29 blowout loss in Philly. Still, this looks like a spot in which Grimes will get the volume he needs. All the usuals are out for the 76ers, plus Guerschon Yabusele. In addition, Justin Edwards is questionable. Grimes is averaging 26 points this month after averaging 26.6 in March. Look for Grimes to score at least 23 points for the 14th time in his last 18 games dating to the start of March.