No Terry McLaurin, Chig has been the chain mover ...

Over in 3 of 4 with an A+ match up ...

Big Ten teams heading west to face former Pac-12 schools are just 5-9 ATS ...

On paper, this looks like a mismatch, and I think it plays out that way. Le Havre has nothing to lose, so I don’t see them sitting deep and trying to grind out a 0-0 after four straight losses. PSG should be able to test this back line, the same back line that gave up four to Marseille and three apiece to Auxerre and Toulouse. I can see Le Havre sneaking one in at home, but that just means PSG needs three, which feels well within reach. My one hesitation is the schedule. PSG visits Villarreal midweek in the Champions League, so rotation or a late letup could turn a 2-0 lead into a 2-1 final. Even so, PSG should still cover.

CJ McCollum has gone under 3.5 assists in all four of his games this season. He’s averaging just 5.0 potential assists per game, so even a strong shooting night from his teammates likely keeps him in the two-to-three range. Jalen Johnson is the ball-dominant facilitator in this offense, and the Hawks run much of their half-court action through him. McCollum is more of a scorer and floor spacer, hunting his own shot instead of setting others up. Still a good price here compared to the market.

I’m backing John Collins over rebounds in this matchup. He’s cleared this number in back-to-back games, grabbing seven rebounds on 12 chances against Miami before collecting 11 on 19 chances against Philadelphia. With Jalen Duren out and Ausar Thompson dealing with a sprained ankle, Collins should have plenty of opportunities on the glass. I expect Paul Reed to handle most of the physical work boxing out Karl-Anthony Towns, freeing up Collins to attack rebounds. Since joining Detroit, Collins has averaged 11.1 rebound chances per game. He’s been active on the glass, and his versatility is another reason I like this bet. He’ll get minutes at power forward and could slide to center when Reed sits.

I’m backing Roma -1.5 in this match. Even without Paulo Dybala, this feels more like a fade of an overvalued Cagliari side than anything else. Cagliari are coming off back-to-back losses where they conceded six goals without finding the back of the net. They’re averaging just one goal per road match, and I think their early success had more to do with playing weaker Serie A competition than anything else. Roma have been dominant at home, winning all but one of their home victories by multiple goals. I have a hard time seeing Cagliari keeping this competitive.

Ajay Mitchell should have the ball in his hands plenty Monday. Oklahoma City’s backcourt is thin, with Cason Wallace questionable and Jalen Williams and Nikola Topic both out, so Mitchell is the top option to run the offense when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits, and he could start if Wallace can’t go. He’s cleared this number in two of three games this season and is creating more than six potential assists per game. Phoenix has also allowed the most assists in the league to shooting guards, and De’Anthony Melton, Ja Morant and Damian Lillard have all gone over their assist lines against the Suns. With extra minutes and ball-handling duties coming his way, Mitchell only needs four.

Anthony Edwards is listed as questionable with a knee issue, and the Timberwolves are playing the second night of a back-to-back. Even if he suits up, it’s hard to see him at full strength attacking the rim the way he usually does. The scoring has been up and down early. Edwards opened the season with 45 points, then followed it up with 15 and 26. Going back to last season, he’s come in under 28.5 in 18 of his last 30 games. Cleveland won’t make it easy, either. The Cavaliers are holding opponents to a 49.7% effective field-goal percentage, and with Edwards likely leaning more on his jumper, I like him to come up short of this number.

This could end up being a horrible bet, but let's not forget who Josh Jacobs was before his suspension. He was a bell cow back in one of the NFL's better rushing offenses. Since then, Green Bay ranks dead last in EPA per rush, and no running back is playing more than 40% of the snaps. Jacobs hasn't participated in a full practice, but Matt LaFleur says he looks good, and Jacobs has been working out in pads to stay in football shape. Detroit ranks 23rd in defensive EPA per rush, so why wouldn't Green Bay give Jacobs at least 10 carries? And if he's running well, why stop there? It's speculative, but I'm backing Jacobs up to 75-plus rush yards for +300.

I know it’s National Tight Ends Day, and I’m probably supposed to be backing George Kittle’s receiving over, but I’m going with Christian McCaffrey. The Atlanta Falcons allow the fourth-most receptions to running backs in the NFL, and McCaffrey is coming off a 10-target game. With Mike Evans out, someone has to pick up those opportunities. Yes, other receivers will get looks, but Jordan Watkins played 78% of the snaps last week and saw just one target. McCaffrey is the perfect safety valve for Brock Purdy. Get him the ball quickly, let him work in space.

Tetairoa McMillan’s receiving over is the move here. The Buccaneers' biggest defensive strength is stopping the run, ranking second in EPA per rush (-0.19) compared to ninth in EPA per pass (-0.09). That matters because Carolina hasn't been particularly effective running the ball, ranking 18th in EPA per rush (-0.09), while its passing attack ranks seventh (0.15). I expect the Panthers to lean heavily on their passing game, especially with Tampa Bay making life difficult on the ground. McMillan has gone over in four of his five games this season and has seen at least eight targets in four of those. With Carolina likely throwing more, McMillan should have plenty of opportunities to have a massive game.

I’m taking Tyrone Tracy’s rushing yards under, and admittedly, it’s a speculative play. Tracy managed just 18 yards on six carries against the Saints in a game where Cam Skattebo was soft benched. It felt like John Harbaugh was trying to send Skattebo a message while seeing if someone else could take control of the backfield. I’m not convinced Tracy earned a bigger role. If he gets four or five carries, there’s value on the under. If he gets only three, we’re sitting pretty. Of course, Tracy can break one long run and burn us, but I’m willing to take that risk given the uncertainty surrounding his workload.

I'm backing Ollie Gordon to clear 48.5 rushing yards against a Jets defense that has struggled to stop the run recently. New York allowed 232 rushing yards to Chicago and another 148 against New England last week, including 57 yards on just 11 carries to Corey Kiner. The Jets rank sixth in defensive EPA per rush (-0.16), but their recent performances suggest they're vulnerable on the ground. Gordon has cleared this number in back-to-back games, rushing for 100 yards on nine carries against Minnesota, and 88 yards on 18 carries against Cincinnati. He's getting more opportunities in Miami's backfield, and he’s making the most of them.

I’m backing Atlético Madrid against the spread in this one. Naturally, I prefer betting totals in Atlético matches, but this feels like a spot where they could absolutely dismantle Deportivo La Coruña. Atlético are unbeaten at home this season, scoring 10 goals in those matches. On the other side, Deportivo are dealing with a slew of injuries, particularly in the midfield and attack. I have a hard time believing Deportivo can keep a clean sheet, and an equally hard time seeing how they score enough goals to keep pace. Atlético have been dominant at home, and with Deportivo missing several key players, this has all the makings of a blowout.