I’m taking a small stab on the spread for Napoli. Neither team has been all that sharp, but Como have had the worst of it, with just one win in their last four matches. It’s also hard to give them too much credit for a win over Genoa at this point. Defensively, Como have been poor as well, conceding eight goals across their last five home matches. On the other side, Napoli are finally getting healthy. Antonio Conte vs. Cesc Fabregas should be a tactical chess match, but I trust Conte to walk away with at least a point.

I have a hard time believing Atlético Madrid will put in any real effort in this match. They’ve already secured Champions League football for next season and have a crucial UCL semi-final coming up midweek. The expectation is that Simeone will rotate his squad. Atleti haven’t taken La Liga seriously of late, winning just one of their last five matches (1-0-4).

Newcastle stink right now. They have lost five straight, and it feels like Eddie Howe is running out of answers. This turns into a must-win spot for them, but it is hard to trust this team in its current form. Brighton, on the other hand, come into this match beaming with confidence, having won four of their last five. Newcastle have also struggled badly in this matchup, winning just two of their last 17 meetings with Brighton.

Leeds are now six points clear of the drop, but Daniel Farke has made it clear they are not safe yet. They should, and likely will, play on the front foot against a Burnley side that averages just 40% possession away from Turf Moor. Beyond struggling to win the ball, Burnley are conceding at a high rate. They allow 2.47 goals per match away from home, with an xGA of 1.90. They also have trouble creating quality chances in front of goal, taking just 7.94 shots per game.

I’m backing United here. They’re coming off an impressive road win over Chelsea and have been dominant at home. Prior to the 2–1 loss to Leeds, they had won five straight at home, scoring at least two goals in each match. Brentford, meanwhile, haven’t been convincing away from home and are stuck in a stretch of underwhelming performances. Five straight draws might look steady on paper, but there’s not much to hang your hat on. Even in the match against Everton where they scored twice, they were second best throughout. I trust United in this spot, and I like them to get on the board at least twice.

The new manager bounce for Wolves under Rob Edwards looks to be over. This team has struggled, losing three of their last four and conceding 12 goals in that stretch. At a minimum, I expect Tottenham to score twice, with Wolves finding one as well. Tottenham have had their own defensive issues, likely without Guglielmo Vicario, and Cristian Romero is now out for the season. It may take time for De Zerbi’s system to be fully implemented. Expect some defensive lapses along the way. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of Tottenham matches and 56% of Wolves’ home matches. This sets up to be an open match.

Mallorca come in with some of the better form in the league, winning three of their last five. For Alaves, it’s all about safety. They need points to stay clear of relegation, and at minimum, a draw. If this match is level with 20 minutes to play, it’s hard to see them pushing for a winner. While I don’t put too much weight on past matchups, the recent matchups are too hard to ignore. These sides have gone under 2.5 goals in five straight meetings. Mallorca haven’t been much of an under team this season, largely because they concede way too much. But this sets up as a spot where an under makes sense if you’re looking to attack it.

I don’t know if I could feel worse for a team than I do Burnley ahead of this clash with Manchester City. First and foremost, I love Manchester City’s team total over 2.5 goals. This is a side that just beat Arsenal, hung three on Chelsea, and put four past Liverpool. In the reverse fixture, they handled Burnley 5-1. If anything, this City attack looks even sharper now, and they’ve quietly tightened things up defensively. As for Burnley, it’s been rough. They’re conceding 2.03 goals per match with a 1.84 xGA, and they haven’t offered much going forward either. This sets up perfectly for a City side in a title race that knows that it could come down to goal differential.

Listen, I know Chelsea aren’t going to go six matches across the Champions League and Premier League without scoring. I’m betting on goals in this clash, no doubt about it, but I’d be insane not to take Brighton draw no bet given Chelsea’s current form. They’ve now lost six straight across those competitions without scoring a single goal. And yes, I’m not counting the FA Cup. Brighton, on the other hand, have won five of their last seven, with their only blemishes being a loss to Arsenal and a draw with Tottenham. They look like the better side right now, and I expect them to walk away with at least a point.

It looks like the new-manager bounce is over for Rob Edwards and Wolves. They’ve now lost two of their last three and have conceded nine goals in the process. They’ve allowed more than 1.90 xGA in all three matches and even made West Ham, a team that has struggled to create, look like prime Barcelona. Leeds are playing with passion and energy, as evidenced by their 2-1 win over Manchester United. I’d hate to get in front of that train right now. I think Leeds win this one 2-0 or 3-1.

This feels fairly straightforward for Inter. It’s a collect-the-check-and-leave kind of match for the Nerazzurri. They’ve won seven of their last nine at home, including three of their last four by two or more goals. From an xG standpoint, it’s hard to see Cagliari finding the net. They’re generating just 1.12 xG per away match while averaging around 10 shots, and they haven’t been clinical in front of goal. On the other side, Inter are conceding just 0.94 goals per home match, with a 1.03 xGA backing that up. Everything points to a comfortable result for the Black and Blues. A 4-0 scoreline is firmly in play.

Bayern took a 2-1 win in Madrid in the first leg, but that scoreline could've been bigger.They were dominant, generating 2.92 xG away from home and consistently creating high-quality chances. If the second leg against Atalanta showed us anything, it’s that Vincent Kompany has no intention of sitting back and defending a lead. Bayern will stay on the front foot. I expect them to win again here and make a clear statement as the best team in Europe.

We’re at that stage of the season where the top clubs are chasing Champions League spots and the rest are fighting to stay up. Hamburger fall into that second group, but they’ve given themselves a cushion, sitting six points clear of the drop with six matches left. Not safe yet, but in a solid spot. Stuttgart are pushing for Europe and can’t afford to slip. The underlying numbers tell the story. Hamburger have struggled to create chances and average just 0.85 goals per away match while conceding close to two. They’ve covered the +1.5 in six straight, but this is a tougher test. If Stuttgart play to their level, this could get away from Hamburger. A 2-0 or 3-1 result feels likely.

After Arsenal’s loss to Bournemouth, the door is wide open for Manchester City. They sit nine points back, but with two games in hand and a massive stretch ahead. Chelsea today, Arsenal on Sunday. The six-pointer in two weeks' time could be the biggest match of the season if they get three today. It’s been a rough run for Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea. Outside of a 7-0 cup win over Port Vale, they had dropped four straight by a combined 11-3 scoreline. City haven’t been the most reliable away from home, but they have won two of their last three. This is a must-win spot with the title race hanging in the balance. Given the circumstances, I absolutely must back Manchester City to win today.

Everton dropped the reverse fixture 4-2, with Brentford punishing them for three goals on the counter. This match should set up differently. Everton should be the side sitting deep, staying compact, and looking to hit on the break. They’re one of the hottest teams in the Premier League right now, with three wins in their last four. With a real chance to push for European play, it’s easy to see David Moyes setting this up to at least secure a point. If they win, it’s an added benefit. That makes Everton Draw No Bet at +156 an easy bet.