Brad's Picks (1 Live)
I’m backing PSG to win. Arsenal have been incredible defensively, but I still don’t trust their attack, especially if they need to chase a goal against a PSG side that should have the better attacking matchups in this one. Luis Enrique is an incredible manager, and I give him the edge over Mikel Arteta in this spot. When you look at the matchups across the pitch, PSG look more than equipped to win this in 90 minutes.
This could be a high-flying match, but history suggests it’s more likely to be a snoozefest than a barn burner. Before PSG’s 5-0 win over Inter Milan last year, six straight Champions League finals went under 2.5 goals. Arsenal are built to play slow and controlled, and their defense has been elite. They have conceded just 0.43 goals per match in the Champions League and 0.71 domestically. PSG are not exactly slouches defensively either. Add in the fact that BTTS has not hit in seven straight UCL finals, and the under becomes even more enticing. In my eyes, someone wins this 1-0 or 2-0, giving us value on the under.
Girona are in a must-win spot at home. With three points, they give themselves a real chance to fight off relegation. With a loss, they are going down. I expect a big effort from them, and fortunately, they get an Elche side that has struggled badly away from home this season. Elche have just one road win all year and have lost eight of their last nine away matches. Girona are not exactly a team I trust, but given the situation and the opponent, this feels like a must-play spot.
West Ham desperately need a win. Three points would give them a chance to stave off relegation, and while Leeds have been strong overall, they have been living dangerously in recent matches. They conceded over 3.0 xG to Brighton and were lucky those chances were not punished. In a do-or-die spot, West Ham should be the side capable of capitalizing. At a comfortable price, I’m backing the home team.
Barcelona have a chance to finish a great season on a high note against a Valencia side they have dominated. Over the last five meetings, Barcelona have outscored them 24-3. Even with some potential motivation concerns after winning the league, this is still a solid price to back the champions.
Juventus need a win and some luck to qualify for the Champions League. There’s no way Torino want Juventus to win the Derby della Mole in their building. Especially if it means they have a chance to ruin Juventus’ season. The last time Juventus beat Torino by more than one goal at the Stadio Olimpico was in 2016. I like taking Torino spread; if Juventus win, it’s by no more than one goal.
The final matchday of the season should be a fun one for Liverpool. They are 3-2-0 in their last five final home Premier League matches, and this could also be the sendoff for Mohamed Salah. I expect Liverpool to bring plenty of energy at Anfield against a Brentford side that has struggled away from home and has been leaky at the back. With the crowd behind them and plenty of attacking motivation, this feels like a spot where Liverpool can close the season with a strong performance.
Manchester City lost the Premier League last week, and Aston Villa won the Europa League midweek. So why am I laying City -1.5? For starters, this is Pep Guardiola’s last match in charge, and City are at the Etihad, where they’ve been dominant all season. They have lost just once at home and usually win by margin. Villa may also rotate. Even if they don’t, those players were partying in Istanbul midweek, then returned for a trophy parade. There’s no way they have been training, and it’s hard to imagine they have the motivation. This feels like a City smash spot. I’ll lay the -1.5.
Taking the over here. Last year on the final day, over 2.5 goals hit in 7 of the 9 matches, with the slate averaging 3.44 goals per match. The year before that, not a single match went under 2.5. This match has no real table implications, which only pushes me further toward goals. With nothing to protect, this feels like a match with a ton of goals.
This may be the best situational spot to bet on Roma this season. Lazio just played the Coppa Italia final against Inter on Wednesday, and now they must turn around and play again in Rome on Sunday. They are ninth in the table and mathematically out of the race for Europe, so this feels like a great opportunity to rest some of their senior players. They are also facing the hottest team in Serie A. Roma have won four of their last five and are unbeaten during that stretch. This is also their final home match of the season, and they will want to win both remaining matches to give themselves the best chance at qualifying for the Champions League.
Neither Aston Villa nor Liverpool have mathematically locked up Champions League qualification. Bournemouth are nipping at their heels, and Villa cannot afford to finish their final home match of the season without a point. It also helps that Villa are unbeaten in their last six final home matches of the season, which gives me more confidence in the double chance bet. Liverpool are dealing with fitness issues as well, especially in attack. The line is juiced, but I struggle to see Villa losing this match.
I’m backing Rayo Vallecano here, more as a fade of Girona than anything else. First and foremost, I don’t think Girona will be physical enough to match Rayo away from home. Even in the reverse fixture, Rayo dominated them physically. Rayo have now gone five unbeaten and have lost just twice at home all season. Girona, meanwhile, are on a three-game slide, and things aren’t going to get better. I’ll take Rayo draw no bet here, just in case Girona grind out a point.
If you want the most value, bet Barcelona to win and both teams to score. The last time an El Clásico didn’t see both teams score was back in 2024. Real Madrid are also as banged up as they have been in quite some time, with Mbappe, Valverde, Rodrygo, Militao, Carvajal, Mendy and Güler all unavailable. Barcelona will be without Lamine Yamal, but the rest of the squad is available. I like goals here. There have been at least four goals in seven of the last nine meetings between these two, and with Madrid missing so many key pieces defensively and in transition, Barcelona should have every chance to win this match while still conceding.
I’m not exactly sure who we think this West Ham team is. They are getting a ton of respect in the market because it’s a “must-win” game. Well, newsflash, it’s a must-win game for Arsenal, too. West Ham are fighting to stay up, while Arsenal are fighting for a title. At this price, I’d take Arsenal over West Ham a million times on Sunday. Let’s not forget, this is the same West Ham side that basically quit in the 70th minute last week. That team has shown no spine, and this is a spot where Arsenal can exploit it.