Bo Nix's passing attempts are all about volume. He averaged 36.0 attempts per game last season and cleared this number in 10 of 17 regular-season starts, including 46 attempts in his last game. Denver called a pass on roughly 58% of its offensive plays, and Davis Webb’s promotion shouldn’t change much. He’s an internal hire who already worked as the pass-game coordinator and QB coach, so the offensive philosophy should stay largely intact. Game script should stay in our favor all night!

Rice is Patrick Mahomes’ safety blanket, and 5.5 receptions feels low for the role he owns in this offense. Rice finished 2025 with a 28.7% target share and was targeted on more than 30% of his routes. He recorded at least six receptions in six of eight games last season and in eight of his last 11 full games dating back to 2024. With an aDOT of under 4, he’s clearly a great option underneath and a chain mover.

I’m not sure what to make of this Como squad yet, but I have no problem backing them until they show me they don’t deserve it. Cesc Fabregas has this team playing phenomenal football. Como won their first-ever Champions League match 4-1 against RB Leipzig, beat Genoa 4-1 on the road and then went to Napoli and won 2-1. Now they get a Parma team that has really struggled going forward. Parma have been shut out in three of their four matches, with their only goal coming against Monza. I’m backing Como -1.5 at this price because I think this number is headed toward -2 by kickoff.

I’m OK with being wrong here, but this feels like a brutal personnel spot for Tampa Bay. Mike Evans is gone, Emeka Egbuka is dealing with turf toe and Jalen McMillan probably won’t play. It gets worse when you look at the matchup. Baker Mayfield posted a -20.1% DVOA against man coverage last season, while Egbuka earned just a 57.7 PFF grade against man. Cincinnati played man at the 11th-highest rate in the NFL. The Bengals’ offense also finished 13th in DVOA last season, while Tampa Bay’s defense ranked 18th. With Tampa Bay banged up and breaking in another new offensive coordinator, I’m backing Cincinnati to make a statement in Week 1.

Warren remains one of Pittsburgh’s best weapons out of the backfield. He earned an 84.4 PFF receiving grade last season, sixth among qualified running backs, while catching 40 of 45 targets for 333 yards. He has now recorded at least 38 receptions in three straight seasons, including 61 in 2023. The matchup helps, too. Atlanta allowed 69 receptions to running backs last season, more than four per game. If the Falcons create pressure, Warren should be one of Pittsburgh’s primary checkdown options. Kenneth Gainwell also accounted for 85 targets and 73 receptions last season and is no longer on the roster, leaving even more passing-down work available for Warren.

Tyler Allgeier is gone, and while Brian Robinson Jr. was added, I don’t expect the snap share to be as high as Allgeier's. Robinson rushed for 1,478 yards last season, averaging 86.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Robinson also forced a league-high 86 missed tackles and averaged 4.0 yards after contact per attempt. Bijan had 36 runs of 10-plus yards, third-most among running backs. Pittsburgh allowed more than 130 rushing yards per game last season. The Falcons may be forced to lean heavily on the run game with Tua hobbled. Giving me a lot of Robinson usage.

It feels like Manchester United's defense has been optional this season. They had a 5-2 win over Ipswich and a wild 2-2 draw with Everton, and this attack is loaded with talent: Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko, Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes. On the other side, Erling Haaland still exists. City have also been involved in plenty of high-scoring matches, including five goals against Crystal Palace and three against Bournemouth. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 is worth a look, but Over 3 is perfectly fine.

Honestly, I think Liverpool -1.25 is the right side here. They’ve started to settle in nicely, beating Atletico Madrid 2-1 in the Champions League after falling behind early, and handling Ipswich 2-0 in the match before that. I still don’t completely trust Liverpool defensively, but this Fulham side has been one of the Premier League’s worst to start the season. They’re one of just two clubs without a point and have now lost three straight opening matches for only the third time in club history. You can also start to see Iraola’s tactics taking shape for Liverpool. At -1.25, I’m comfortable they win this match, and there’s a chance they win by two.

There are no such things as easy overs in footy, but this feels like an over that’s mandatory to take. Two really poor defenses are facing off against each other. Crystal Palace and Ipswich have each conceded eight goals, averaging 2.68 goals allowed per match. Palace has conceded at least two goals in nine straight Premier League matches dating back to last season, and it feels like this defense still has a long way to go. Losing Daniel Munoz after already losing Maxence Lacroix certainly doesn’t help. Ipswich is a feisty team, and I think they can get theirs here. The advanced numbers back it up, too, with both teams conceding at least 2.0 xG per match.

I’m taking Kyren Williams over 12.5 rushing attempts. Williams has cleared this number in seven of his last nine games and in each of his last four meetings with the 49ers. Blake Corum’s snap share should continue to rise, but Williams should still be around 70% to 73% while handling most of the early-down work. He also tends to get those late-game carries when the Rams are trying to milk the clock. Williams has mostly struggled to reach 13 carries when the Rams are getting blown out or when fumbles have cost him touches. This early in the season, I expect both teams to lean on the run. At 12.5 instead of 14.5, I like the value on Williams.

I’m a big fan of Brock Purdy’s legs in this primetime matchup. Purdy didn’t face this division rival last season because of injury, and mobile quarterbacks tend to take off more often when plays break down, especially in high-leverage situations. Purdy closed last season by going over his rushing total in four straight games and five of his final six, including several high-pressure spots down the stretch and in the playoffs. The matchup also sets up well. San Francisco’s offensive line is facing an elite defensive front that can generate pressure without blitzing. If the coverage holds up on the back end, Purdy should have open running lanes when he escapes the pocket.

What a great story for Sabah to reach the Champions League league phase, especially after their dramatic comeback in qualifying. Unfortunately, they also look like a team that could become the competition’s punching bag. They don’t defend particularly well, struggle to maintain possession and have done most of their recent scoring against much weaker opposition. I think United can score four or five goals here, and I have a hard time seeing Sabah finding the back of the net. United doesn’t just have the talent advantage. They also have a clear edge in speed and size. Whether the goals come from open play or set pieces, I expect United to create enough chances to cover the -2.5 spread.

This number is super juiced, but I’m not interested in taking anything other than Roma to walk away with at least one point. Gian Piero Gasperini has this team playing incredible soccer, and Donyell Malen is playing out of his mind. What I love about this Roma side is how well everything fits together while still allowing its best attacking players to be effective in front of goal. The opponent is good enough to score here, which is why I’m staying away from the Roma moneyline. I could easily see a 1-1 draw, a 2-1 Roma win or even a 2-0 result. Winning away from home won’t be easy, but I still trust Roma to get something from this match.

How could I not back Arsenal here? They just passed their toughest test of the season, coming back from two goals down to beat Chelsea, and now they get a Napoli side that has looked pretty rough. Arsenal are 4-0 to start the season and have conceded just one goal. Napoli opened with a 2-0 win over Genoa, but since then they have lost back-to-back matches and allowed five goals. Mikel Arteta has a chance to take Arsenal to back-to-back Champions League finals. This team won every match in the League Phase last season, and I think they will start this year's run the same way. Give me Arsenal.

What am I missing with Stuttgart -1.5? This feels short. Viking are fun, and they can score, but this is a completely different level. Stuttgart have a huge edge in talent, depth, and athleticism, and their system should create chances no matter who starts. The bigger thing for me is game state. If Stuttgart score first, Viking will have to open up, and that is where this can get away from them quickly. Stuttgart have the quality to turn 1-0 into 2-0 or 3-0 pretty fast. You can play the team total over 1.5, but for this chat now, I like the spread. I think Stuttgart will win this comfortably.