Despite an extremely impressive regular season and opening round, San Antonio finds themselves down 0-1 to a very game and dangerous Timberwolves squad. De’Aaron Fox was often passive and I expect him to be significantly immortal aggressive in a must win Game 2. We saw glimpses of his potency in the opening round and I still contend that Fox is one of the best crunch time scorers in the league and capable of eclipsing this combo line in one half if he’s aggressive. This feels like a spot he’s going to put the team on his back. I also like his points line at 17.5 if you don’t have access to his PA.
After a dismal 5 game stretch to open the Knicks series against Atlanta, Mikal Bridges was in the midst or arguably the worst slump of his career. As a result this combo line is extremely low, however I was very encouraged by his two most recent appearances where he not only played well but also logged significant minutes. Bridges is still an integral part of the team and the Knicks are at their best when he’s active on offense. I’m comfortable taking this at 17.5.
This is a tough matchup for Bryan Woo who will be facing an Atlanta lineup that has been very stingy in the strikeout department this season ranking bottom five in K Rate. Woo is not in great form at the moment and possesses a career worst SwStr% which doesn’t bode well for his chances. Hes also not going very deep into games and this feels like a good spot to fade him picking up a sixth strikeout.
This number should be 4.5 Ks for Taillon who I would still consider fading at plus money. Even in an above average matchup he’s not a strong strikeout artist and his underlying metrics back that up as well. …
James Harden has been underwhelming so far this postseason, which has been a reoccurring theme for him throughout his career. With that being said, this is simply too low of a line for Harden who averaged just shy of 37 PRA in the regular season. Harden is playing heavy minutes and this number is much closer to his floor than his ceiling, even in a tough matchup.
This is a large number for Jaden McDaniels considering that Anthony Edwards is tentatively expected to suit up tonight. McDaniels has seen his usage surge without AD which is partially why this line is this high. There is also significant blowout risk with the Spurs checking in as double digit favorites tonight.
The Cavs are going to need all the help they can get from Evan Mobley as they look to avoid getting bounced in the 1st round. Mobley has played well in this series having eclipsed this line in 4/6 games. Considering James Harden and Donovan Mitchell have both been fairly pedestrian by their standards, I expect Mobley to once again shoulder a large load offensively. I also expect him to play upwards of 40+ minutes.
Jaylen Brown had a terrific regular season capped off by averaging just shy of 29 PPG. The Celtics will need his scoring today as Jayson Tatum was ruled out, however I think this number should be between 28.5-29.5. The Sixers are playing very good defense in this series and I expect them to make life really difficult for Brown.
This line is simply too low for Evan Mobley who averaged 18 PPG in the regular season and has scored 15+ in 4/5 games in this series. It should come as little surprise that when Mobley is aggressive offensively, it has resulted in the Cavs being successful. Cleveland wants to avoid a Game 7 and I expect Mobley to get up plenty of quality looks tonight.
This is a hefty line for Alperen Sengun as he looks to avoid elimination in Game 5 tonight. DeAndre Ayton has been very good defensively and has made life difficult for Sengun. I expect that to once again be the case in a game that’s projected to be both low scoring and paced down.
Scottie Barnes has been amazing this series and is averaging a robust 25/7/5 while serving as the Raptors primary playmaker. With that being said, this is a large combo line for Barnes who averaged just 13 combined Reb+Ast in the regular season. These games have been paced down and I expect that to be the case tonight in Game 5.
I think we see a much more aggressive Evan Mobley tonight with this series returning to Cleveland and tied at 2-2 a piece. It should come as little surprise that the Cavs won both games when Mobley was assertively offensively and lost both games where he wasn’t engaged. Look for Mobley who averaged 18 PPG in the regular season to make a big impact in Game 5.
We’re getting a hefty discount on this combination line for Derrick White who has been quiet so far through the opening round of the playoffs. White is still playing heavy minutes in this series and I expect him to breakout of the mini slump he’s been in. White is shooting just 31% from the field through this series. The versatile combo guard averaged over 26 PRA in the regular season.
Wendell Carter is playing big minutes in this series and despite dealing with foul trouble and a blowout in Game 2, the big man is averaging 33 MPG, 3 more than his season average. I expect that to once again be the case tonight in a game that projects to be competitive. Carter has been very active so far in this series.
This line is too low for Joel Embiid who is one of the highest usage players in the NBA. Even if Embiid only plays 30-32 minutes he is more than capable of eclipsing this line. I expect a competitive game environment as well.













