Alex's Past Picks
Jalen Green is playing some very good basketball and has been on ab absolute tear during the month of March. While its certainly an impressive run and Green is talented and skilled enough to have taken another step in his development, I believe hes performing above expectations and is a regression candidate. I also believe the Thunder have the personnel to make life difficult on Green and this total is so high that it would require him to continue to shoot at an unsustainable clip out in order to eclipse this line.
Despite unsuccessfully fading Brandon Miller in this same matchup, I am going back to the same play however his line has increased by an additional point. The Cavs boast a truly elite defense and excellent against opposing forwards. I don't believe Miller will take 18 field goal attempts and that was his best shooting performance in his last eight appearances. Look for Cleveland to make life difficult for the talented rookie and there is some significant blowout risk as well.
Don't look now but the Washington Wizards have won three straight games and have held all three opponents to under 110 points. While the Wizards haven't morphed into the Timberwolves overnight, they're playing better defense and a lot of that has to do with Richaun Holmes being inserted into the starting lineup. The 9 year veteran has held Nikola Vucevic, Domantas Sabonis, and Kelly Olynyk to subpar game and I believe he will do the same to Nicolas Claxton.
This is a tough spot for Klay and Golden State on the second half of a B2B. After a brutal month of February where it looked like Klay Thompson had fallen off a proverbial cliff, he has certainly bounced back and shown he is still a solid player, albeit not the two way star he was for nearly a decade. That being said is a tough matchup against an elite Magic defense that excels defending the three point line. The Magic rank in the top five in nearly every defensive three point metric and I believe Klay will have to get a lot of shots up in order to eclipse this line.
Going back to the Khris Middleton well as the former All-Star has looked fantastic since returning to the Bucks lineup after an ankle injury cost him roughly five weeks. Middleton has easily eclipsed this combo line in three consecutive games. The Lakers make for a good matchup as they play at a fast pace and bleed a ton of production to opposing forwards. Look for Middleton to keep stuffing the stat sheet tomorrow at home.
The Miami Heat and their defense has been rounding into form and have been shutting down their opponents recently. Miami has been especially tough on opposing PFs having surrendered the fewest points to the position over their last 15 games. Kuminga has enjoyed a breakout season for the Warriors but doesn't contribute a whole lot aside from scoring. Also the majority of Kumingas shot attempts come within 15 feet of the basket where the Heat defense really shines. Miami surrenders the second fewest points in the paint on a per game basis. Look for Kuminga to struggle against a red hot Miami defense.
Pascal Siakam is coming off of arguably his best game since joining the Pacers after putting up 36 points last night against the LA Lakers. Siakam will face the Clippers tonight and I believe this is a potential let down spot. In addition to this being the second half of a B2B for both teams, the Clippers have been extremely tough on opposing PFs this season, surrendering the third fewest points to the position on a per game basis. Then we factor in that the Clippers rank 27th in possessions per game. All signs point to the under on this combo line.
The Spurs will take on the Phoenix Suns for the second time in the last two days, however this time they will be without their superstar rookie Victor Wembanyama. We have a decent 8 game sample of what the Spurs look like sans Wemby and Keldon Johnson is by far the biggest beneficiary. Keldon averages 32.3 PRA with Wemby inactive this season, compard to 23 PRA with Wemby in the lineup. This makes sense considering Wemby is one of the highest usage players in the NBA and no player on the Spurs roster has sacrificed more from a usage standpoint than Keldon. Look for Keldon to help carry the load offensively in a game with the second highest projected total on tonight's 11 game slate.
Kristaps Porzingis has enjoyed a tremendous season with the Boston Celtics and has been lights out from an efficiency standpoint, while playing solid defense on the other end of the court. Porzingis has torched Clint Capela and the Hawks throughout his career and it should come as little surprise as he possesses the shooting to pull Capela away from the basket where he is less effective. With Jrue Holiday already ruled out and Derrick White Questionable, there may be additional scoring onus on Porzingis tonight.
The reigning number 2 overall pick has had a mostly positive rookie year. Miller has certainly proven to be a talented scorer and it wouldn't surprise me if he averages 22+ PPG next season on efficient shooting splits. However it appears to me that he may have hit a rookie wall and his recent splits suggest that may be the case as well. Miller is averaging 17 PPG in March on 41/33/63% splits and has failed to score 19 points in 4 of his last 5 appearances. Miller will have his hands full against a Cavs team that is 4th in Total Defense, while playing at the 6th slowest pace. There is some serious blowout risk with Cleveland checking in as 13 point favorites.
Khris Middleton has dealt with a variety of injuries over the last few seasons but when he's been on the court he's still been very productive. After missing roughly 5 weeks due to a ankle injury he is back in Milwaukee's lineup and has appeared in two games 32 and 34 PRA while playing 33 minutes in his last outing on Wednesday. This looks like a fantastic spot against the Thunder in a game with the largest total on Sundays slate (232 points). Look for Middleton to fill up the stat sheet in what should be a competitive and high scoring environment. I am comfortable playing this up to 25.5 for 1u.
Jarrett Allen has had a fantastic season and has been excellent on both ends of the court. This is a tough matchup against a Heat team that surrenders the second fewest points in the paint on a per game basis. It should come as little surprise that Miami also allows the second fewest points to opposing Centers as well. Allen has struggled in head to head matchups against Bam having only scored 17 points in one of their 15 H2H matchups. I expect Allen to struggle to today in a paced down low scoring environment.
This is a very tough spot for Jaden Ivey and the Pistons against arguably the hottest team in the league at the moment in the Pelicans. New Orleans is playing a suffocating style of defense and have held 9 of their previous 12 opponents to under 106 points. They've also been playing at an extremely slow pace with minimal possessions. Jaden Ivey who is a volume scorer is really struggling from the field this month shooting 41% and just 22% from the perimeter. There is no tougher matchup in the league right now for opposing guards and there is some significant blowout potential here as well.
This is a low number for KD who averages 27.6 PPG. The former MVP has been in a mini slump over his previous five games having failed to eclipse 22 points. KD looks completely fine and while his shot attempts have been down, it simply appears to be the natural ebbs and flows of playing in an offense with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. We're getting a hefty discount on this points prop and against a San Antonio squad that ranks third in possessions per game, while sporting the 23rd raked defense.
To begin the season the Houston Rockets were playing at one of the slowest paces in the league in addition to playing strong defense, in addition to running their offense through Center Alperen Sengun. The Turkish big man suffered a season ending injury and since losing Sengun Houston has opted to go with a smaller, more athletic lineup and are playing much faster as a result. Utah on the other hand ranks 28th in Defensive Efficiency while playing at the sixth fastest pace in the league this season. Utah has had trouble scoring recently but have faced a brutal schedule. Look for these teams to get out in transition and I expect a high scoring environment.