Shane Baz will have his hands full Friday.

We've all heard of riding the hot hand, however I subscribe to fading the hot hand which is exactly what we're doing with Jalen Williams who to his credit, is playing tremendous basketball. However, this combo line typically fluctuates between 30.5 and 32.5 so its certainly inflated. Williams has struggled with consistency throughout the postseason and he can still play well and stay under a line this high. I expect this to close at 33.5.

Freddy Peralta is having a fine season for a struggling Milwaukee Brewers team, however he hasn’t been the same pitcher on the road compared to at home this season. He will face a Cubs team he blanked for 6 scoreless innings in Milwaukee earlier this season. It’s hard to shut down an offense as potent as the Cubs twice and especially when this game will be played at Wrigley Field.

Williams has failed to record 5+ Ks in eight consecutive starts. He gets a juicy matchup against a Rockies team that is 2nd in the majors in K Rate, however they haven’t been quite as generous recently, ranking 8th in that department over the last three weeks. Moreover Williams has just 9 Ks in 54 plate appearances vs the Rockies projected lineup.

This is a big line for Ranger Suarez who has routinely been held under this line both this season and throughout his career. He’s also facing a stingy Marlins lineup that ranks bottom 6 in K Rate versus opposing southpaws, in addition to having good career numbers versus Ranger. I’d play this down to (-180) or a half unit at 4.5.

Michael Soroka has some ultra concerning splits and despite the strong matchup, I think this is a good spot and a great price point to fade him. First and foremost, matchups are overrated. Speaking of his opponent the Rockies, Colorado hasn’t been quite as generous from a strikeout standpoint over the last few weeks coupled with a potent offense that’s capable of ending Sorokas outing prematurely. Sororka has a dismal sub 9% SwStr% as well.

Jesus Luzardo has pitched well since joining the Phillies however the southpaw has been crushed for 21 ER over his last three starts. Luzardo has strong strikeout numbers but if we look under the hood, his advanced metrics indicate he has been pitching above his head. He gets a difficult matchup this evening versus his former team who possess the sixth lowest K rate versus opposing lefties. Luzardo has been feast or famine.

Alex Caruso has achieved legendary status in Oklahoma City after providing the Thunder with excellent play on both ends of the court. Caruso is the most experienced member of the team and has proven to be one of the best offseason additions possibly in league history (yes, hes been that good). With that being said, this is a big combo line for Caruso who is shooting over 50% from both the field and from behind the arc. Considering the shooting volume, Caruso will have to continue to be red hot to eclipse this line.

Jalen Williams is coming off his best finals game and as a result we’re seeing a hefty combo line. Williams has struggled with consistency and this has proven to be a tall order for the talented combo forward. Williams has been held under this line in 12/19 postseason games. I’d play this down to 32.5 for a full unit.

We’re going to fade Obi Toppin who was one of the heroes of Game 1. Toppin just isn’t getting the minutes to justify this line, in addition to an angry Thunder defense in a game with significant blowout potential.

This is a big combo line for Alex Caruso, even in the event that Caruso sees a bump in playing time. Speaking of which, OKC opted to reduce Isaiah Hartensteins playing time with Caruso being the primary beneficiary in the final two games of the WCF. Even if the Thunder opt to go small, it’s still a tall order considering Caruso has been held under this line in 11/16 postseason games, including seven consecutive outings.

Tyrese Haliburton took is personally when he was voted the most overrated player in the NBA. Haliburton’s ability to control and dictate tempo is unmatched and he is certainly the catalyst of the Pacers success. With that being said, this is a large line for the All-World PG, not to mention he will happily defer or pass up shot attempts if he feels his teammates can get better looks. I’d play this down to (-180).

Jalen Williams is having a terrific postseason but it’s largely going unnoticed. The third year pro has an extremely well rounded game and is excellent on both ends of the court, however this is a hefty combo line in what is likely going to be a paced down environment.

The Thunder opted to go with a smaller lineup and inserted Alex Caruso for Isaiah Hartenstein in the second half of Game 4’s victory. While OKC was able to hang on for the win, they were outscored by Minnesota in the second half. This is a large number for Caruso and I’m not convinced he sees another significant bump in playing time.

Anthony Edwards was brilliant in the Timberwolves Game 3 trouncing of the Western Conference finals. While Ant is truly among the elite scorers in the league, he’s going to have his work cut out against a motivated and elite Thunder squad capable of deploying multiple quality defenders. Furthermore, there is no better team at limiting their opponents top scoring option. For AE to eclipse this line he’s either going to have to shoot lights out which is not an easy task or get there through volume.