Alex's Past Picks
This looks like a nice spot to back Kawhi Leonard whose minutes have been slowly ramping up having gone 31 and 33 minutes in his previous two appearances. He is facing a Memphis team on the 2nd half of a B2B that plays at the fastest pace in the league. Furthermore, the Grizzlies surrender a ton of production to opposing forwards. I think Kawhi gets 33-35 minutes and that should be enough PT to cruise over 18.5 Points. I also am comfortable playing this at 19.5 for a full unit.
Only two players in the NBA average over 10 APG this season and its Trae Young and Nikola Jokic, who are both very high usage players, not to mention extremely skilled. With all due respect to Isaiah Collier, who looks like a steal at pick 29 for the Jazz, his game is still very raw. Collier's inability to consistently score is also eventually going to be problematic as I anticipate opposing defenses will dare him to shoot, which is likely going to come at the expense of his high assist totals. Either way I'm willing to fade him at this high of a number as I don't think his current production is sustainable. There is also some additional blowout risk here as well.
Andrew Wiggins struggled in his debut with Miami after getting traded to the Heat at the trade deadline for Jimmy Butler. Wiggins has another tough matchup against a Thunder squad that possesses the top defense in the league. There is also some serious blowout risk here as well with Miami 13.5 point underdogs. I would play this down to 15.5.
Ja Morant has scored 25+ points in two of his previous three games and I like his chances of making it three of his last four when he takes on the Phoenix Suns tonight. This game has a whopping 245 point total and should feature plenty of offense. Phoenix has been dreadful defensively recently and Memphis leads the NBA in possessions per game. I would play this prop up to 32.5.
We’re getting a significant discount on Chet Holmgren’s combo line after the big man fractured his hip back in November. Prior to the injury, Holmgren looked like a potential All-NBA selection and if was averaging 18/9/2 on solid efficiency. In Holmgren’s first game back he logged 22 minutes which I expect him to play 3-5 more minutes tonight. Even prior to the injury, Holmgren was rarely eclipsing 30+ minutes so this should be enough floor time for him to cruise over this prop. I'd play to line up to 21.5 for a full unit.
Paolo Banchero has had a quiet February and is averaging only 17 PPG. This looks like a potential eruption spot for Banchero against a Hawks team that plays at the second fastest pace in the Association. I also love that Atlanta surrenders the most points to opposing forwards. This is a get right spot for Paolo and the Magic and I will likely be laddering him as well. I expect this to close at 23.5, where I would still play this for 1u.
Xavier Worthy has made a big impact and the rookie speedster has been Patrick Mahomes top target throughout the playoffs, in addition to the end of the regular season. I've been impressed with the way Kansas City has utilized Worthy and are manufacturing touches for the talented rookie. With that being said, this is a big number in what is certainly a difficult matchup. The Eagles have a strong claim as the best pass defense in the NFL and the advanced metrics reflect this. Philly is particularly adept at shutting down opposing outside WRs and I believe 6+ receptions is simply a big ask for Worthy.
Dallas Goedert has been Jalen Hurts favorite and most reliable target throughout the playoffs. As a result, we're getting a big number considering that Goedert has failed to eclipse this line in 2/3 playoff games and 9/13 total games this season. Jalen Hurts has only attempted 69 passes through three playoff games (23 attempts per game). The Eagles want to run the football and limit Jalen's dropbacks and that simply isn't enough volume to sustain multiple receivers.
Travis Kelce had a fairly quiet regular season (by his prolific standards), however I expect him to be heavily featured in the Super Bowl. The Eagles sport an elite pass defense, however Kelce is basically matchup proof and if the Eagles defense is vulnerable in one area, it is covering the middle of the field and their linebackers can be exploited in coverage. The Eagles do a terrific job of limiting opposing boundary receivers. Look for Kelce to be heavily utilized in what may be his final game if the Chiefs are able to win on Sunday.
Ty Jerome has been a key reserve for the 1st place Cavs and has provided Cleveland with some big scoring off the bench. While Jermone has been fantastic, he’s been running red hot from an efficiency standpoint and I have serious doubts that he’s able to continue his current 52/43/89 shooting splits. He’s also only playing 18-22 minutes a game so if he isn’t shooting the ball well, he’s not getting enough playing to maintain his scoring average. This line feels like an overreaction.
First the good news, Michael Porter Jr. has had back to back 30+ point games with his latest a 39 point eruption. Now for the reality check, both games came against the Pelicans who are a bottom three defense. Tonight he'll face the Magic who are second in Defensive Efficiency, in addition to playing at the slowest pace in the league. Orlando is also very tough on opposing forwards and this checks all the boxes for me.
This is a big number for Alperen Sengun in what would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup against the Timberwolves. Minnesota combines the 5th slowest pace with the 7th ranked defense. They surrender the 4th fewest rebounds to opposing Centers, in addition to allowing the 5th most APG. Furthermore, since Rudy Gobert joined the T-Wolves, Sengun has faced him 7x and only eclipsed this combo line once.
Getting this prop out quickly as it is on the move. I'd still play it at 15.5 but I would scale to 15.5. Very difficult matchup for Thompson who is still a raw scorer who doesn't pose a threat from the perimeter.
This is a big number for Keytone George who averages 16.2 PPG on the season. George also shoots sub 40% and largely relies on volume in order to maintain his scoring production. This number is higher than it usually is as a result of Collin Sexton suffering an ankle injury thrusting George into a higher usage role. However there are still plenty of capable scorers in Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Jordan Clarkson. The Warriors are a neutral-ish matchup considering they rank 15th in Pace and 9th in Defense. I feel this line is an overreaction.
Nikola Vucevic is in the midst of a very strong season despite this being year 14 for the Montenegrin big man. I feel like a broken record but regression is coming, or perhaps its already here, and Vooch is very unlikely to maintain his current efficiency and scoring production. This is also a tough matchup against the Timberwolves who rank 6th in Defensive Efficiency, while playing at the 5th slowest pace. Additionally, Minnesota is very tough on opposing Centers surrendering the sixth fewest points to the position. Lastly there is some significant blowout risk here with Chicago checking in as 11.5 point underdogs.