Chase Brown looks more and more comfortable very week as the Bengals feature back. If we look at the Bengals rushing attack as a whole on the season, it's middling at best, however since Week 8 they're a respectable 15th in EPA per rush. That coincided with Brown taking over as the Bengals lead back and Zack Moss heading to IR. This is arguably the best matchup for RBs against a Dallas defense that is a MASSIVE run funnel, in addition to ranking dead last in EPA allowed per rush.

It's been tough sledding for Ceedee Lamb recently but. I like this spot for him as a potential bounce back for the star WR. Lamb hasnt touched the century mark in five consecutive games and a lot of that can be attributed to Cooper Rush playing QB for the Cowboys. Lamb is also dealing with a shoulder injury. We're getting a discount on his receiving line tonight in what is certainly a good matchup, with a high projected total, and game script should be in Lamb's favor. I like Lamb to get back on track tonight.

Chase Brown is a big play waiting to happen and has been very serviceable since taking over as a feature back. If you look at the Bengals rushing metrics on the season, they'd suggest they've been largely ineffective, however most of that was during a split backfield with Zack Moss who was dreadfully inefficient. Since Week 8, the Bengals rank 15th in EPA per rush and that coincides with Brown taking over as the lead back. Now he faces a Cowboys defense that is dreadful versus the run and rank dead last in EPA allowed per rush and 26th in defensive success rate.

I like the Chiefs in this spot against a Chargers squad that seemingly peaked. The Chargers have beat one team with a winning record, Denver back in Week 6. Their opponents combined record is 33-64. KC is undefeated at home and are gearing up for the postseason. While the Chiefs have a very low point differential considering they are an outstanding 11-1, I like them to win and comfortable paying a fairly steep price.

Kyren Williams has relied on elite volume/usage this season and despite being inefficient, his workloads have provided him with a very solid floor. However Blake Corum just posted a season high 32% snap share in Week 13 and Kyren Williams was at just 68%, a far cry from the +90% he is used to. Williams now faces a very good Bills run defense that is 8th in EPA allowed per rush, and 7th in success rate. There is also game script which could work against Williams and in our favor as well. I'd play this down to 67.5.

James Cook is set up nicely to have a big game against a subpar Rams defense that has surrendered chunk plays all season long, which happens to be Cook's specialty. Teams have been heavily weighted towards running against the Rams all season with their opponents posting a -3% PROE. It should come as little surprise that the Rams are 24th in EPA allowed per rush. Cook is capable of making big plays in the passing game and I believe he'll see 15-18 touches on Sunday in what would certainly qualify as a strong matchup.

I'm running out of superlatives to describe Brock Bowers. In addition to having the greatest season by a rookie TE in NFL history, he is having one of the best seasons by a TE ever. Bowers target profile mirrors that of an elite WR1, except hes a rookie TE, playing in an anemic passing offense. Now he gets a matchup where the Raiders are expected to be trailing, against a Bucs defense that is 29th in EPA per dropback, as well as ranking dead last in success % per dropback. This checks all the boxes for a potential spike week. I'd play this up to 74.5.

Kirk Cousins has been downright dreadful since Week 10 and now faces a tough Vikings defense that excels at generating quick pressure, which bodes poorly for Cousins who has struggled under duress this year. The Falcons have also not been shy about trying to hide Cousins recently. The league average passing rate this season is 63% and the Falcons have eclipsed that number just once since Week 5. The Vikings also rank 4th in EPA allowed per dropback, 6th in dropback Success %, and blitz at the highest rate in the league. Despite the revenge game narrative, I'll be fading Cousins a variety of ways on Sunday.

Tua Tagovailoa is getting the ball out very quickly and this is by design. The Dolphins attack is to set up Tua for easy completions and it's largely been effective, however it has certainly contributed to decrease production from Tyreek Hill. Tua has the lowest ADoT of any starting QB in the league. Meanwhile Tyreek hasnt gone for 100+ yards since Week 1 which may as well be an eternity ago. Now he's facing a Jets defense that is a significant run funnel, in addition to being strong in coverage.

Brandon Miller is the number one option on a depleted Hornets team. Despite being the top option, Miller doesn't typically register high rebound/assist output. This game also has significant blowout risk and could result in Miller playing the majority of the 4th quarter on the bench. He could also struggle with efficiency versus a very good Cavs defense.

Looking to fade Vasilije Micic in a variety of ways as I feel this line is too high for the European veteran. Micic is no guarantee to even play 25+ minutes, in addition to this game having significant blowout potential.

I'm surprised to see the oddsmakers give us another points line for Micic that is double digits. Micic has manaed to score 10+ in just a two games this season out of eleven appearances. Now he faces a tough Cleveland defense in a game with serious blowout potential. It wouldnt surprise me if Micic only played 20 minutes too. Cleveland could also easily blowout the Hornets.

Get it this out ASAP as this game starts in roughly 30 minutes but I like the Lakers here after getting blown out by the Heat in their last game. AD took responsibility for the loss and I expect a big bounce performance in what is a terrific matchup against a subpar Atlanta frontcourt.

Get this out ASAP as this game starts in roughly 30 minutes but I like the Lakers here after getting blown out by the Heat in their last game. AD took responsibility for the loss and I expect a big bounce performance in what is a terrific matchup against a subpar Atlanta frontcourt.

Tucker Kraft has enjoyed a solid sophomore campaign but you could make the argument that some of his production has been a bit fluky. Kraft has a 7% first read target rate which indicates that he is largely an afterthought in the GB offense and certainly not a focal point. On top of that, he gets a brutal matchup against a Detroit defense that is not only first in EPA, EPA allowed per dropback, but also has surrendered the fewest yards to enemy Tight Ends, which is very impressive considering teams are often throwing against the Lions trying to play catch up.