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    Alex Selesnick
    Alex Selesnick
    PropStarz
    A high-level poker player, Alex Selesnick (aka PropStarz) specializes in NFL, MLB and NBA prop betting, where he implements a combination of research, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. He is arguably the nation's No. 1 props expert. Since joining CBS Sports in 2021, PropStarz has delivered consistent winners on SportsLine.com and "The Early Edge," the popular daily show hosted by Jonathan Coachman. He is 309-231 (plus 61.09 units with every bet 1 unit) in the NFL, and 74-38 (plus 30.51 units) in MLB entering the 2023 seasons. PropStarz appears regularly on CBS Sports HQ and publishes frequent articles and picks with sophisticated analysis on SportsLine.com. For Alex Selesnick media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
    2-1 on NFL Props Picks
    +82
    Record: 2-1
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    NFL | Atlanta 6 @ Detroit 20 | 09/24 | 5:00 PM UTC

    Kyle Pitts OVER 34.5 Total Receiving Yards -119

    WIN

    ANALYSIS: Kyle Pitts has 91% and 92% route participation in consecutive weeks with an ADOT of 13.5 yards. Those are both elite marks, especially at the TE position and now faces a Lions defense that has surrendered the most yards to the TE position this season. Pitts 30% air yard share is also the highest of all TEs in the league. Big games are on the horizon and this has all the makings of a potential spike game for Pitts, especially if Detroit can push Atlanta. I'll gladly take a shot here.

    +82 2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS
    +82 2-1 on NFL Props Picks

    NFL | Philadelphia 25 @ Tampa Bay 11 | 09/25 | 11:15 PM UTC

    Cade Otton OVER 25.5 Total Receiving Yards -118

    LOSS

    ANALYSIS: Cade Otton has played 97% of the teams snap in consecutive weeks with 100% route participation. That is extremely rare at the TE position and he gets a great matchup against an Eagles defense that historically struggles covering TEs and has already surrendered the 2nd most yards to the position through two games. The Eagles are also down multiple linebackers and defensive backs. This number should be closer to 32.5.

    +82 2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS
    +82 2-1 on NFL Props Picks

    NFL | New Orleans 17 @ Green Bay 18 | 09/24 | 5:00 PM UTC

    Chris Olave OVER 62.5 Total Receiving Yards -119

    WIN

    ANALYSIS: Chris Olave has taken another step forward in his second season and is locked in as one of the NFL's top wideouts. Olave's 2.79 YPRR, 32% target share, 39% air yard share, all rank in the top 10 percentile at WR. He will face a Packers defense that could possibly be without their top DB in Jaire Alexander who appears to have suffered an injury during the Packers final Week 3 practice. Even if Alexander suits up, this number is simply too low for the Saints WR1.

    +82 2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS
    +82 2-1 on NFL Props Picks

    NFL | Denver 20 @ Miami 70 | 09/24 | 5:00 PM UTC

    Samaje Perine OVER 16.5 Total Receiving Yards -119

    LOSS

    ANALYSIS: I typically avoid RB receiving props as they are high variance and with a wide range of outcomes as RBs are rarely a QBs primary first/second read and as a result their target floors are almost non existent. That being said, this is an exception. Since Russell Wilson has landed in Denver he has targeted his RBs as much as any QB in the league. Perine leads all Denver RBs with a 53% route participation and projects to be the snap leader this week. Considering Wilson is not throwing the ball downfield and this game is likely to feature an uptick in passing volume, this checks all the boxes for me.

    +82 2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS
    +82 2-1 on NFL Props Picks