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Alex Selesnick

PropStarz

An experienced poker player, Alex Selesnick (aka PropStarz) specializes in NFL, MLB and NBA prop betting, where he implements a combination of research, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. He is arguably the nation's No. 1 props expert. Since joining CBS Sports in 2021, PropStarz has delivered consistent winners on SportsLine.com and "The Early Edge," the popular daily betting show. He is 417-297 (plus 77.28 units) in MLB entering the 2025 baseball season, and 524-418 (plus 44.8 units) in the NFL. PropStarz also is coming off a monster 2023-24 NBA season that saw him go 338-246 on prop plays (plus 42.72 units). PropStarz appears regularly on CBS Sports HQ and "The Early Edge" and publishes frequent articles with sophisticated analysis on SportsLine.com. For Alex Selesnick media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
+1029.5
RECORD: 68-49-0
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks

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Alex's Past Picks

Feb 13 2025, 3:30 am UTC
League
Memphis
114
@ L.A. Clippers
128
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

This looks like a nice spot to back Kawhi Leonard whose minutes have been slowly ramping up having gone 31 and 33 minutes in his previous two appearances. He is facing a Memphis team on the 2nd half of a B2B that plays at the fastest pace in the league. Furthermore, the Grizzlies surrender a ton of production to opposing forwards. I think Kawhi gets 33-35 minutes and that should be enough PT to cruise over 18.5 Points. I also am comfortable playing this at 19.5 for a full unit.

Pick Made: Feb 12, 3:33 pm UTC on BetMGM
Feb 13 2025, 2:00 am UTC
League
L.A. Lakers
119
@ Utah
131
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Only two players in the NBA average over 10 APG this season and its Trae Young and Nikola Jokic, who are both very high usage players, not to mention extremely skilled. With all due respect to Isaiah Collier, who looks like a steal at pick 29 for the Jazz, his game is still very raw. Collier's inability to consistently score is also eventually going to be problematic as I anticipate opposing defenses will dare him to shoot, which is likely going to come at the expense of his high assist totals. Either way I'm willing to fade him at this high of a number as I don't think his current production is sustainable. There is also some additional blowout risk here as well.

Pick Made: Feb 12, 3:47 am UTC on FanDuel
Feb 13 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Miami
101
@ Oklahoma City
115
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Andrew Wiggins struggled in his debut with Miami after getting traded to the Heat at the trade deadline for Jimmy Butler. Wiggins has another tough matchup against a Thunder squad that possesses the top defense in the league. There is also some serious blowout risk here as well with Miami 13.5 point underdogs. I would play this down to 15.5.

Pick Made: Feb 12, 2:36 pm UTC on DraftKings
Feb 12 2025, 3:00 am UTC
League
Memphis
119
@ Phoenix
112
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Ja Morant has scored 25+ points in two of his previous three games and I like his chances of making it three of his last four when he takes on the Phoenix Suns tonight. This game has a whopping 245 point total and should feature plenty of offense. Phoenix has been dreadful defensively recently and Memphis leads the NBA in possessions per game. I would play this prop up to 32.5.

Pick Made: Feb 11, 1:38 pm UTC on DraftKings
Feb 11 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
New Orleans
101
@ Oklahoma City
137
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

We’re getting a significant discount on Chet Holmgren’s combo line after the big man fractured his hip back in November. Prior to the injury, Holmgren looked like a potential All-NBA selection and if was averaging 18/9/2 on solid efficiency. In Holmgren’s first game back he logged 22 minutes which I expect him to play 3-5 more minutes tonight. Even prior to the injury, Holmgren was rarely eclipsing 30+ minutes so this should be enough floor time for him to cruise over this prop. I'd play to line up to 21.5 for a full unit.

Pick Made: Feb 10, 7:41 pm UTC on BetMGM
Feb 11 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Atlanta
112
@ Orlando
106
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Paolo Banchero has had a quiet February and is averaging only 17 PPG. This looks like a potential eruption spot for Banchero against a Hawks team that plays at the second fastest pace in the Association. I also love that Atlanta surrenders the most points to opposing forwards. This is a get right spot for Paolo and the Magic and I will likely be laddering him as well. I expect this to close at 23.5, where I would still play this for 1u.

Pick Made: Feb 10, 5:31 am UTC on FanDuel
Feb 09 2025, 11:30 pm UTC
League
Kansas City
22
@ Philadelphia
40
+112
4-3 in Last 7 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Xavier Worthy has made a big impact and the rookie speedster has been Patrick Mahomes top target throughout the playoffs, in addition to the end of the regular season. I've been impressed with the way Kansas City has utilized Worthy and are manufacturing touches for the talented rookie. With that being said, this is a big number in what is certainly a difficult matchup. The Eagles have a strong claim as the best pass defense in the NFL and the advanced metrics reflect this. Philly is particularly adept at shutting down opposing outside WRs and I believe 6+ receptions is simply a big ask for Worthy.

Pick Made: Feb 04, 10:45 pm UTC on BetMGM
Feb 09 2025, 11:30 pm UTC
League
Kansas City
22
@ Philadelphia
40
+112
4-3 in Last 7 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Dallas Goedert has been Jalen Hurts favorite and most reliable target throughout the playoffs. As a result, we're getting a big number considering that Goedert has failed to eclipse this line in 2/3 playoff games and 9/13 total games this season. Jalen Hurts has only attempted 69 passes through three playoff games (23 attempts per game). The Eagles want to run the football and limit Jalen's dropbacks and that simply isn't enough volume to sustain multiple receivers.

Pick Made: Feb 04, 10:39 pm UTC on DraftKings
Feb 09 2025, 11:30 pm UTC
League
Kansas City
22
@ Philadelphia
40
+112
4-3 in Last 7 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Travis Kelce had a fairly quiet regular season (by his prolific standards), however I expect him to be heavily featured in the Super Bowl. The Eagles sport an elite pass defense, however Kelce is basically matchup proof and if the Eagles defense is vulnerable in one area, it is covering the middle of the field and their linebackers can be exploited in coverage. The Eagles do a terrific job of limiting opposing boundary receivers. Look for Kelce to be heavily utilized in what may be his final game if the Chiefs are able to win on Sunday.

Pick Made: Feb 04, 10:33 pm UTC on FanDuel
Feb 08 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Cleveland
134
@ Washington
124
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Ty Jerome has been a key reserve for the 1st place Cavs and has provided Cleveland with some big scoring off the bench. While Jermone has been fantastic, he’s been running red hot from an efficiency standpoint and I have serious doubts that he’s able to continue his current 52/43/89 shooting splits. He’s also only playing 18-22 minutes a game so if he isn’t shooting the ball well, he’s not getting enough playing to maintain his scoring average. This line feels like an overreaction.

Pick Made: Feb 07, 8:53 pm UTC on Caesars
Feb 07 2025, 2:00 am UTC
League
Orlando
90
@ Denver
112
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

First the good news, Michael Porter Jr. has had back to back 30+ point games with his latest a 39 point eruption. Now for the reality check, both games came against the Pelicans who are a bottom three defense. Tonight he'll face the Magic who are second in Defensive Efficiency, in addition to playing at the slowest pace in the league. Orlando is also very tough on opposing forwards and this checks all the boxes for me.

Pick Made: Feb 06, 4:03 pm UTC on Sugar House
Feb 07 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Houston
114
@ Minnesota
127
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

This is a big number for Alperen Sengun in what would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup against the Timberwolves. Minnesota combines the 5th slowest pace with the 7th ranked defense. They surrender the 4th fewest rebounds to opposing Centers, in addition to allowing the 5th most APG. Furthermore, since Rudy Gobert joined the T-Wolves, Sengun has faced him 7x and only eclipsed this combo line once.

Pick Made: Feb 06, 4:15 pm UTC on DraftKings
Feb 07 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Houston
114
@ Minnesota
127
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Getting this prop out quickly as it is on the move. I'd still play it at 15.5 but I would scale to 15.5. Very difficult matchup for Thompson who is still a raw scorer who doesn't pose a threat from the perimeter.

Pick Made: Feb 06, 4:16 pm UTC on DraftKings
Feb 06 2025, 2:00 am UTC
League
Golden St.
128
@ Utah
131
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

This is a big number for Keytone George who averages 16.2 PPG on the season. George also shoots sub 40% and largely relies on volume in order to maintain his scoring production. This number is higher than it usually is as a result of Collin Sexton suffering an ankle injury thrusting George into a higher usage role. However there are still plenty of capable scorers in Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Jordan Clarkson. The Warriors are a neutral-ish matchup considering they rank 15th in Pace and 9th in Defense. I feel this line is an overreaction.

Pick Made: Feb 05, 2:51 pm UTC on DraftKings
Feb 06 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Chicago
108
@ Minnesota
127
+1029.5
68-49 in Last 117 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Nikola Vucevic is in the midst of a very strong season despite this being year 14 for the Montenegrin big man. I feel like a broken record but regression is coming, or perhaps its already here, and Vooch is very unlikely to maintain his current efficiency and scoring production. This is also a tough matchup against the Timberwolves who rank 6th in Defensive Efficiency, while playing at the 5th slowest pace. Additionally, Minnesota is very tough on opposing Centers surrendering the sixth fewest points to the position. Lastly there is some significant blowout risk here with Chicago checking in as 11.5 point underdogs.

Pick Made: Feb 05, 2:16 pm UTC on DraftKings
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