NFL | Tennessee 3 @ Cleveland 27 | 09/24 | 5:00 PM UTC
Chigoziem Okonkwo UNDER 3.5 Total Receptions -169
WIN
ANALYSIS: Will update analysis shortly.
Alex's Past Picks
ALL
NFL | Atlanta 6 @ Detroit 20 | 09/24 | 5:00 PM UTC
Kyle Pitts OVER 34.5 Total Receiving Yards -119
WIN
ANALYSIS: Kyle Pitts has 91% and 92% route participation in consecutive weeks with an ADOT of 13.5 yards. Those are both elite marks, especially at the TE position and now faces a Lions defense that has surrendered the most yards to the TE position this season. Pitts 30% air yard share is also the highest of all TEs in the league. Big games are on the horizon and this has all the makings of a potential spike game for Pitts, especially if Detroit can push Atlanta. I'll gladly take a shot here.
NFL | Philadelphia 25 @ Tampa Bay 11 | 09/25 | 11:15 PM UTC
Cade Otton OVER 25.5 Total Receiving Yards -118
LOSS
ANALYSIS: Cade Otton has played 97% of the teams snap in consecutive weeks with 100% route participation. That is extremely rare at the TE position and he gets a great matchup against an Eagles defense that historically struggles covering TEs and has already surrendered the 2nd most yards to the position through two games. The Eagles are also down multiple linebackers and defensive backs. This number should be closer to 32.5.
NFL | New Orleans 17 @ Green Bay 18 | 09/24 | 5:00 PM UTC
Chris Olave OVER 62.5 Total Receiving Yards -119
WIN
ANALYSIS: Chris Olave has taken another step forward in his second season and is locked in as one of the NFL's top wideouts. Olave's 2.79 YPRR, 32% target share, 39% air yard share, all rank in the top 10 percentile at WR. He will face a Packers defense that could possibly be without their top DB in Jaire Alexander who appears to have suffered an injury during the Packers final Week 3 practice. Even if Alexander suits up, this number is simply too low for the Saints WR1.
NFL | Denver 20 @ Miami 70 | 09/24 | 5:00 PM UTC
Samaje Perine OVER 16.5 Total Receiving Yards -119
LOSS
ANALYSIS: I typically avoid RB receiving props as they are high variance and with a wide range of outcomes as RBs are rarely a QBs primary first/second read and as a result their target floors are almost non existent. That being said, this is an exception. Since Russell Wilson has landed in Denver he has targeted his RBs as much as any QB in the league. Perine leads all Denver RBs with a 53% route participation and projects to be the snap leader this week. Considering Wilson is not throwing the ball downfield and this game is likely to feature an uptick in passing volume, this checks all the boxes for me.