Scoring runs isn't exactly a strength of the Royals and on Monday they're up against Christopher Sanchez. Sanchez hasn't been great over his last two road starts, but I expect that to change against the Royals bats. As for the Phillies bats, they should be just fine against Noah Cameron who has been particularly bad over his last four starts. Expect the Phillies to cash in on Cameron and bounce back after Sunday's loss.
Laying the 0.5 run here with Foster Griffin on the mound for the Nationals. Griffin has been going deep into games, limiting runs and missing bats. Keller is on a slightly opposite trajectory and I expect him to get hit up in great hitting conditions in Washington. All signs point to the Nationals putting up enough runs early to cover the First Five run line.
The Orioles are a very inconsistent team, but we may be catching them on the upswing over on the west coast. The bats have started to come alive and now they face Ryan Johnson who has been quite bad this season in limited work. There simply aren't any metrics where Johnson has shined (ERA, WHIP, K rate, hard contact and plenty more). Conversely, Shane Baz seems to have turned things around. Look for the Orioles to take advantage of an uneven pitching matchup in the first five (and in the full game as well).
It's been a tough scene for Merrill Kelly for quite some time as he's been giving up a ton of production. All signs point to him continuing to slide as he's allowing a ton of base runners and hard contact. Andre Pallante has been solid for the Cardinals and is backed by the better bats (Diamonbacks struggling at the plate, particularly against righties). It should only take a couple of runs in the First Five to get this done and that shouldn't be a huge problem for the Cardinals against Kelly.
Too good of a price to pass up with Spencer Arrighetti up against Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been pretty terrible in four starts this year with an ERA over 9 and the advanced metrics aren't much better. There's an argument that the Arighetti regression is underway after getting touched up by the Pirates last time out, but the pitching advantage remains clear here. The Angels bats are heating up and the Astros had to travel which may be keeping this price way more reasonable than what it should be.
I like the price on the home team here up against winless Jack Flaherty. Steven Matz is coming off a bad game versus Baltimore and has similar numbers to Flaherty, but I trust the Rays bats in this one, especially at home. The Tigers have been bad on the road and bad against lefties. I do think Steven Matz will make some mistakes, but I trust the Rays offense just enough to lay the -130 (best price at DK).
It was less than a week ago that Tyler Mahle faced this Diamondbacks team and gave up 6 earned runs through 5 innings and there's very little evidence that he'll have a drastic improvement this time around. Eduardo Rodriguez is due for some regression for Arizona, but the Giants aren't great against lefties and I think he does enough to limit runs. Ultimately, this is a fade of Mahle and a lean on the Dbacks bats that are starting to heat up.
This feels like a fair price with Miles Mikolas on the mound for the Nationals. Bailey Ober is going for the Twins and he certainly hasn't been dominant, but he's only allowed 3 earned runs over his last 3 starts (going at least 6 innings in each). I expect Ober to pitch to contact and give up a run or two, but I also fully expect the Twins to get the better of Miles Mikolas who simply doesn't have the stuff to be a starting pitcher any longer. The Twins went for 11 runs on Tuesday against the Nats and I think they continue their hitting ways today.
Kai-Wei Teng gets the start for the Astros and he's been very solid so far in 2026 (albeit, in a bullpen role). It's unknown how long he will go, but I think he can keep the Orioles bats relatively quiet early. Shane Baz goes for The Orioles and he has been downright bad over his last few outings: allowing 11 earned runs over three games and a ton of traffic on the bases. It doesn't help Baz that the Astros are pretty great against righties. I also lean to the Astros over 2.5 First Five at +120.
It's not exactly the "buy low" I had in mind as I'm laying some juice (BetMGM has the best price) for a struggling Phillies team, but I do love the pitching matchup. Christopher Sanchez hasn't been perfect this year, but he's a far better pitcher than Edward Cabrera. The Phillies bats have been quiet, but they're better against righties and I expect them to get to Cabrera, who has allowed plenty of baserunners over his last two outings.
It's not easy backing a Royals team that only has 7 wins in their first 23 games, but I think we've got a good spot to lean on a Royals First Five. As usual, I'm leaning on the pitching matchup with Kris Bubic over Shane Baz. Bubic hasn't been great to start the season, but his metrics are far more favorable than Baz. The Royal bats have been quiet, but they do fare better against righties and Baz allows enough baserunners that I think we get a Royals First Five winner.
The Tigers have rattled off 8 wins in their last 9 games and that includes two in a row on the road in Boston. Detroit's bats have been underwhelming against righties, but Boston's have been worse in that department and now Boston gets Jack Flaherty, who was great over his last two starts (Royals and Twins). Sonny Gray has been average to start the season and got rocked by the Twins last time out. We've got an edge with the bats and the pitching matchup and a good plus money price for the road team.
I'll take the better team and the far better pitching matchup with this first five play. The Orioles bats haven't come alive to start the season, but they should be able to scratch out a couple of runs against Shane Smith, who has had a very shaky start to his season. The scoring environment won't be great for either team Tuesday afternoon, but I'm expecting Trevor Rogers to continue to roll and the Orioles to be leading after five innings. I'd play this up to the -140 range.
Soriano was great in his first outing against the Astros while Jameson Tallion had an awful spring training (although he was solid in the WBC versus Panama). The weather is going to limit runs all around and Soriano's great start along with his knack for producing ground balls should keep the scoring low on the Cubs side. The Angels have been putting up runs through five games and I think they can scratch out some runs against Tallion in the first five. You can take the F5 ML at a plus number if you don't want to lay the juice. Notable that DK has this bet at -125.
As much as I would love to play the First 5 ML, I just don't want to lay the heavy juice and I think the Royals will have the lead by the end of the 5th. Kris Bubic is on the mound for KC and he's enjoyed a solid spring training (coming back from a good 2025 which ended with injury). The Twins will trot out Simeon Woods Richardson who is prone to giving up runs, courtesy of hard hits and the deep ball. The run scoring environment should be great when you factor in the weather and the Royals should be able to take advantage early.