The Cubs have lost 5 of 6 and are in need of a bounce back and I think that comes in the form of an Erick Fedde fade. Fedde hasn't been terrible lately, but he's allowing plenty of baserunners and the expected numbers aren't good. Matthew Boyd faces a Cardinals team that is solid at home, but he's the far better pitcher and he's got the better lineup behind him. Great bounce back spot for the Cubs and I expect them to get to Fedde enough to get a First Five win.

Eric Lauer in audition mode for a permanent spot in the starting rotation and he fared well last week against a tough Diamondbacks lineup. His season overall has been impressive as well. Now he gets a Guardians lineup that's had plenty of trouble getting on base and scoring. Add that Logan Allen could get touched up by a Blue Jays lineup that is very solid against lefties and I'm in on The Jays First Five.

Walker Buehler has been dreadful lately and he's also particularly bad on the road. Kochanowicz has also been bad for most of the season, but he's improved over the last couple of starts and I expect him to limit the damage against a watered down Red Sox lineup in the midst of a west coast road trip. Not interested in messing with the Red Sox bullpen as I want to isolate Buehler in this one in the First 5.

Ryan Pepiot and Lucas Giolito appear to be on opposite trajectories over the last few weeks and when you add in the fact that the Rays bats are heating up, it's a good spot to lean on the road team in the First Five. Both teams should get their fair share of base runners in a great hitting environment, but it's the Rays offense and pitching matchup that are on the upswing and the same cannot be said of the Red Sox behind Giolito (who has been particularly bad at Fenway). It should be noted that the Red Sox smashed Pepiot back in mid-April, but he's in better form now than two months ago.

The San Diego bats have gone quiet and their numbers against righties have been particularly bad over the last 30 days. With that time frame in mind, Nick Pivetta has also regressed a bit since a torrid start to begin the season. Pivetta may still be solid, but the walks, hits and earned runs are rising and he now gets a Dodgers lineup that is producing far more than the Padres. I don't think Dustin May needs to be perfect to win this First Five play and I'm counting on the Dodgers to get a few runs off Pivetta.

Two quality teams going at it early on Monday and I'm focused on fading the lesser pitcher. Keider Montero has not been good this season and has allowed plenty of hard contact, plenty of base runners and plenty of walks. Hayden Birdsong continues to be in audition mode and has fared well and while his expected numbers aren't great, he's the better option versus Montero. Both sets of bats have slowed a bit and I think this First Five can get distilled down to a Montero fade.

The Dodgers are great, but this line seems off with Dustin May on the mound against Corbin Burnes. May looked decent against the Diamondbacks on May 10th, but has otherwise been bad since mid-April and has lost 3 starts in a row. He's also on only 4 days rest. Meanwhile, Corbin Burnes has fully shaken off a tough start to the season has allowed only two earned runs over his last four starts. Both sets of bats can hit righties and we have a big pitching advantage here.

I was able to wait this one out and grab a slightly better number (at BetMGM), but it's certainly still a lot of juice to lay. With that said, everything lines up well here for Houston. The Astros have been great versus lefties, solid at home and recently were pretty great against Bubic. Contrast that with the Royals who struggle against lefties and who were shut down by Framber Valdez in late April. Bubic has been good but his level of competition rises tonight as he's been blessed with some easier matchups as of late (aside from Houston who rang him up for 4 runs through 5 innings).

I like the pitching matchup with Wheeler on the mound against Rasmussen. Rasmussen starting to regresss a bit and I'm expecting a good day from Wheeler against this Rays lineup. The Phillies have also been putting up runs and putting runners on base, and in what is likely a great hitting environment, I expect them to put up enough runs to win the First Five.

Brayan Bello makes his first start of the season coming off the IL and I'm going to look to take advantage of that with a Mariners team that has hot bats and has been particularly hot against righties. The Mariners will trot out Bryce Miller who has recovered nicely from a tough start to the season. Miller may have some issues with the lefties in the Red Sox lineup in particular, but I think he'll be more impressive than Bello (who wasn't exactly great in his rehab apperances). With the situation in mind, I think the wrong team is favored.

The Rangers' bats have started out cold and the Cubs have been stacking runs (due, in part, to a 3 game series in Sacramento against the A's), but this is a play on the pitchers as Justin Steele has had a poor start to his season and Nathan Eovaldi has been excellent through his two starts. The weather will cater to poor hitting conditions on Monday night in Chicago. I like this pitching matchup and think if anyone scores early, it's the Rangers.

Angels are coming in winning 2 out of 3, but it wasn't exactly impressive against the White Sox, as the runs were hard to come by. Contrast that with the Cardinals who swept the Twins and put up 19 runs across the three game series. But, hold everything, as Miles Mikolas is on the mound and he'll be a big fade target of mine. Doesn't really matter which metric you look at, it's not going to look pretty for Mikolas. Tyler Anderson, on the other hand, was solid last season and is the far better pitcher. I'll take the +0.5 at a very reasonable price, but I like the F5 ML as well.

BYU has been my adopted team this year and now that the line has moved from +3.5 to +5.5, it's time to jump right back in. BYU continues to be disrespected in the market in spite of losing just once over their last 12 games. In that time they've taken out Kansas, Iowa State, Arizona, VCU and Wisconsin. Many of their big wins have also been away from home. Both offenses should flourish and while Alabama may be the better team, this is too many points for a team that has a chance to win this game outright.

I don't make a ton of college basketball bets, but when I do, they're usually on BYU. I've been tracking this team all year and I think they can make a deep run. Wisconsin has some impressive wins on their resume, but I'm more impressed with what BYU's wins against very good teams down the stretch. This BYU offense simply doesn't go away and the Badgers don't have the defensive profile to stop it.

The VCU Rams are a trendy Bracket Buster this week, but they're up against an underrated BYU team that has played well all season in the Big 12. VCU is very balanced and have some impressive metrics, but some of that is a product of playing in the A-10. The Rams have the big travel spot and will be in altitude in a likely shootout and that also benefits BYU. I would play this ML up to -135 and I really don't mind laying the 2.5 either.