The Seahawks are flying high with a decisive win over the Chiefs on national television, but they host a Bears team that is also playing good football. More specifically, the Bears have some additions that make them far more formidable including Jeffery Simmons, Montez Sweat and TJ Edwards. Add Kyler Gordon who has been back for a couple of weeks and this defense is in a different tier. The Bears are also on extra rest which gives an edge to the players and to HC Ben Johnson. I don't mind playing this at +3 as that's where a lot of books have this line.

I'm pretty confident that Burrow will have another great game, but I think his success will be predicated on efficiency rather than volume. The Titans pass defense has been gettable all season (speaking to the Burrow efficiency) and the loss of Jeffrey Simmons also may lead to a more run-centric approach from the Bengals. We also have a double digit spread that may cater to less Burrow volume in the 2nd half. Even in competitive games, Burrow tends to fall under this number (he's only surpassed 36 attempts twice this season) and I think we'll see more of the same on Sunday. The 36.5 is at FanDuel and BetRivers and I'd stay away from the 35.5. Play the 36.5 at -135 or better.

It's been a tough run out for Chase Brown through the first couple months of the season, but he's also faced a lot of Top 10 rush defenses. On Sunday he gets a below average rush defense, and on top of that, a defense that just traded away their best run stopper in Jeffrey Simmons (John Franklin-Myers pretty good too). I think we see a concerted effort to get Chase Brown rolling again and the game script should help us out quite a bit as the Bengals are double digit favorites. Look for Brown to get 13-15 carries and finally showcase some efficiency per carry (also like his longest rush over of 13.5). Play this up to 55.5.

Opportunity is knocking for Kendrick Bourne as he faces the Cowboys defense and another likely negative game script. Last week Bourne had a very poor game totaling 9 yards (he did have 6 targets). The two prior games Bourne had 47 and 70 yards and 8 targets in each. Bourne is in a great spot to stay on the field after Jalen Brooks went on IR (I suspect we'll see Bourne mostly in the slot, but also outside) and with Michael Wilson and Trey McBride commanding so much attention, I think we'll see him sail past the 31.5 total (notable that Brissett's passing yards prop is 250+). This line is at DK and I'd play it up to 34.5.

The squeaky wheel narrative is firmly in play this week for Garrett Wilson against the Raiders. His targets have dwindled and he made sure to voice his displeasure on the sideline against the Dolphins last week. Geno Smith is slated for 220+ passing yards, and while he has his full complement of receivers, I suspect Wilson will get a lot of his attention in what should be a competitive game. This is a vulnerable Raiders pass defense which makes it a great spot for a bounce back. I'd play this up to 57.5.

I think the Packers are in a good break out spot against a very vulnerable Panthers defense, especially after adding Josh Jacobs to the mix. The Packers have been recenlty victimized by some self-inflicted wounds and some questionable officiating, and they get a Panthers squad that just got exposed by the Bucs. Look for the Packers to roll offensively and to do enough on defense to cover the spread. This line currently at -4/-4.5 in a lot of places and I'd certainly look for the -3.5/-4 (-3.5 currently at FanDuel).

Middle Tennessee is a team on the rise after wins against Delaware and FIU (notable that the Delaware win was against the backup QB). The MTSU defense can struggle at times, but Kennesaw State is not the team to take advantage of it. I think MTSU will be able to move the ball via the ground and air attack (I suspect we'll see another great game from Terrence Brown at RB). MTSU is playing inspired football and I expect them to get their third win in a row and cover the -2.5 at home.

Dak Prescott hasn't had much success with passing TDs over the last month, but he has a pretty good situation on Monday night. The Eagles secondary is solid, but it's their lack of pressure that should give Dak plenty of time to operate. Dak's passing yard projection of 260+ tells us a lot about the type of success he's likely to have and it's notable that the Cowboy run game is far from explosive. Points will come through the air. Look for Dak to bounce back tonight with at least two touchdown throws in primetime.

Emeka Egbuka is out for this game and that should translate into a meaningful increase in opportunity for Ted Hurst. It's difficult to properly analyze his stats coming into this game, with the issues at QB, but he's certainly already been worked in a good amount. He's also a big play threat that can hit this total in one catch. I think there is ladder opportunity here, especially with the Panthers banged up in the secondary. Baker is back for this one and should be looking his way.

An interesting discrepancy in the market as I see three books that have this Longest Completion prop at 39.5, but Fanduel has it at the much more generous 34.5. It's a great spot for CJ Stroud to continue to pile up explosive plays with a full compliment of healthy receivers. The Giants pass defense has been very good this season, but they haven't faced a passing attack like this one over the last month. They've also started to send more blitzes without creating much of a pass rush which should give Stroud some big opportunities downfield. Notable that NYG also has some potential injuries in their secondary. Again, best line by far is over at Fanduel. I'd play this up to 37.5.

The Colts go on the road as 7 point dogs on Sunday. The Vikings can afford to play conservatively on offense via the run with Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones and I expect Mason to get a significant workload (i.e. - double digiti carries). That may sound like a lot since he's technically not even off of IR (he will be by Saturday), but keep in mind the injury was to his thumb and he has now logged in a few full practices (notable that Aaron Jones still has a slight MCL issue that he is playing through). Colts rush defense is one of the worst in the league. I'd play this up to 50.5.

Drake Maye has been involved in three high scoring games in a row while throwing for a total of 10 touchdowns in those games (3, 4, 3). It looks like we have another high scoring game incoming and I expect the Patriots to find more success through the air than through the ground. The Patriots offensive line has some injury issues, but I still expect Maye to convert some plays downfield against an aggressive Bears defense and for Maye to extend plays and find his pass catchers in the endzone.

It's a great time to back FIU at home against an MTSU team that is extemely suspect on defense and that shouldn't be able to move the ball consistently against FIU. MTSU was a winner last week largely due to its passing attack, but that is likely to be stymied by a great FIU defense (FIU particularly good against the pass). The FIU offense has been able to move the ball on offense, but they haven't been able to turn good drives into points. I expect some regression to the mean in this regard resulting in FIU rolling at home.

Jayden Daniels has been over this longest rush prop in all three games he's started this year (14, 20, 38) and he's up against a 49ers team that has done well against rushing QBs, with one pretty huge caveat: they haven't faced anyone near the running ability of Jayden Daniels (Stafford, Willis, Brissett, Nix, Darnold). JD5 will do his best to go through his progressions but with the season on the line, there's a good chance he finds plenty of gaps and takes off (rush attempt projection is at 7). Notable that Dre Greenlaw is out for this game. This 13.5 number is over at Fanduel.

Matthew Golden is having a breakout season and it's certainly reflected in his receiving yard props, but I don't think the number is high enough considering the matchup. This game is slated for 50+ points and Jordan Love is slated for 270+ pass yards to a condensed pass catching group of Watson, Golden and Kraft. Look for Golden to be all over the field and to continue his trajectory of getting targets, and perhaps, more efficiency against this Cowboy secondary.