Sia's Pick (1 Live)
Sia's Past Picks
It's a big matchup tonight in Sacramento for in-season tournament purposes, but perhaps it's more important in terms of each team staying on the right track early in the season. The Kings lost the two prior meetings against the Warriors, but the last one was a one point loss at Golden State without De'Aaron Fox. I think the Kings have the better personnel here (even with Draymond Green back in the lineup for the Warriors) and at this point in the season, the game means more to the home team.
The Vikings defense has been pretty solid lately, but it's unlikely they can shut down DJ Moore. Moore will be heavily targeted in this one and should get to this number on sheer volume (has a 30% target share in this offense). It's notable that Brian Flores likes to dial up the blitz and Fields has been good against the blitz. His passing efficiency is also up. All of this should inure to the benefit of DJ Moore.
Odell Beckham's targets have started to trend upward as of late and his target share is starting to nearly match Zay Flowers. Beckham has a shoulder issue but if he's active, he should be a full-go against this very porous Chargers defense. An added bonus is that Mark Andrews is out which should mean a few more targets to each of the receivers including OBJ.
There are simply too many issues with this Chargers defense to have any faith in them at home against the Ravens. The Ravens are arguably a Top 2 team in the AFC and will face a Chargers team that doesn't even appear to be intimidating on offense. It's notable that Joey Bosa is on IR which makes things even easier for Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are down Mark Andrews but still have weapons in the passing game and have a dynamic rushing attack. It'll be too much over four quarters for the Chargers.
Jaylen Warren has hit this mark in 3 straight games, but the really impressive part is that he's done it on an average of less than 12 rush attempts per game. Somehow he is continuing to split carries with the extremely inefficient Najee Harris, but with a new Offensive Coordinator in Pittsburgh, it wouldn't surprise me if we see Warren get a few more touches. Either way, against a porous Bengal rush defense, Jaylen Warren should get there.
We know both gameplans are going to be conservative and we know both defenses are somewhere between good and great. That should lend itself to DTR and Russel Wilson playing not to lose and letting the defenses dominate.
I was thoroughly impressed with the limited snaps backup QB Max Brown received last week and I think he's an excellent dual threat option for Florida. Florida State has their own issues at QB with backup Rodemaker, but he admittedly has way more experience. I want to be early on Max Brown and this is about as early as I can be. I think the Gators are a live dog here at home.
Tank Dell has 35 targets over his last three games and gets a projected game script that is going to require him to get plenty of targets on Sunday. Stroud is projected to throw for over 275 yards against a susceptible Jaguar defense and Dell and Nico Collins should get a lot of that work. I give the edge to Dell to be the leading receiver for Stroud and the Texans, but the entire offense should have sucess through the air.
Derrick Henry hasn't done much as of late and you can blame that on several factors including teams not respecting the Titan passing game, Henry's own struggles and game scripts which have abandoned the rushing attack. That should all change on Sunday because the Titans are a favorite against a Carolina team that you can absolutely run the ball against. Look for a breakout game from King Henry.
Nebraska is coming off three tough losses in a row and Iowa has won three in a row, but believe it or not, I'm more impressed with Nebraska's streak of losses than Iowa's streak of wins. Nebraska is desperate for a win to become eligible and they exhibited that desperation against Maryland and Wisconsin over the last two weeks. I expect them to be highly motivated in front of their home crowd. If Nebraska can simply limit their turnovers, they'll win this game at home.
It doesn't really matter what the matchup is from a secondary standpoint, as Tyreek Hill is constantly schemed in space. As for the matchup itself, it's doubtful that Sauce Gardner will shadow Tyreek. Either way, Tyreek will be the engine for this offense and I expect him to get plenty of YAC against this tough defense. It'll be relatively cold for a Miami team accustomed to warmer weather and the matchup isn't amazing, but that's why we are getting a lower number than normal. I'll take the discount.
The Packers are likely to be trailing for a majority of this game and Jayden Reed has provided plenty of efficiency and explosion over the last 4 games to be a primary beneficiary of that trailing game script (he has surpassed this yardage total in 3 of the last 4 games). Reed was banged up earlier in the week but was listed as a full participant on Wednesdays practice report and I expect him to be thoroughly involved in the gameplan with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
Rushing the ball against the 49ers doesn't usually work out well, but they are somewhat vulnerable to RBs coming in the pass catching department. With Kenneth Walker out I expect Charbonnet to have the 3-down role but it'll be the receptions that keep him productive. The 49ers can also create a lot of pressure with their front four so expect a lot of dump offs or check downs to Charbonnet.
The Cowboys went out and got Brandin Cooks for a reason and that reason is coming to fruition as his target share has surpassed Michael Gallup and remains high above Jalen Tolbert. CeeDee Lamb will certainly dominate targets, but next in line is Brandin Cooks, and against this Commanders defense he may get it on one reception. The good news is he should have 4-5 targets so he may get there on volume as well.