Sia's Picks (2 Live)
Can The Steelers keep it close in Philadelphia on Sunday?...
Sia's Past Picks
I was waiting for this line to come out and I had to wait until this afternoon. It opened at some books at 18.5, but I still think there is value at this number (BetMGM) and I'd be willing to play it up to 20.5. Blake Corum has hit this in 3 of his last 4, and more importantly, has had 8 carries in each of the last two games. The path to beating the 49ers is through the run in my opinion and I suspect both Kyren and Blake will be utilized. I should note that Kyren Williams carried the ball 29 times on Sunday and may need an extra break or two on a short week.
A couple of bad performances prior to last week's game and a recent injury to Brock Purdy have kept his number reasonable in what could be a shootout against the Rams. The 49ers are likely without Isaac Guerendo, and while they will still try to run the ball, the passing game is going to be key. I expect both defenses to struggle and I expect the 49ers to lean on Purdy who threw for nearly 300 yards when these teams met in Week 3 (in that game, Purdy had Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk, but George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were inactive).
There are a lot of targets to go around now that Brandin Cooks is back and Jake Ferguson is healthy, but KeVonate Turpin has earned the right to continue to get work. The Cowboys have made an effort to include the speedster in the offensive gameplan this year and while he's not on the field a lot, when he is on the field, the Cowboys design plays for him. Turpin has hit this line in 2 of his last 3 games and 6 of his last 8. In a neutral and/or negative game script, I'm expecting Turpin to get a few looks and that's probably all he will need to get this over.
The Chargers seem to be stumbling a bit toward the finish line. Yes, they've won 2 out of 3, but they easily could have lost all three games and their win last week in Atlanta was almost entirely predicated upon Kirk Cousins going 'Full-Jameis' to give the game away. The Chargers defense has taken a step back, their offensive line has regressed, they have no run game to speak of and they've got shaky receivers (with McConkey dinged up). The Chiefs will be at home and are likely getting a piece or two back in their lineup while having Isiah Pacheco fully intergrated into the backfield. Look for the Chiefs to actually look like the Chiefs in this one.
I like the Cardinals at home in this spot coming off a very tough loss in Minnesota. The Cardinals play better at home and the Seahawks offense hasn't looked particularly good. Now that Kenneth Walker has been ruled out, I think they'll have even more trouble moving the ball and I think Kyler and company exact their revenge for their loss against the Seahawks just two weeks ago. The Seahawks are trending lately, particularly on defense, but they'll hit a roadblock in Arizona on Sunday.
Mike Evans hasn't practiced yet this week (as of Thursday evening) and I think that may be keeping his receiving yards number reasonable, so I'll go ahead and scoop it up now. Evans is THE target for Baker Mayfield when he's on the field and that was illustrated yet again when we cashed his prop last week to the tune of 8 receptions on 12 targets for 118 yards. He's got a great matchup against the Raiders and getting to 100+ again is not out of the question. If he somehow regresses with his injuries over the weekend and doesn't suit up, the bet will be void, but I expect him to play and be a full go in a big game for Tampa.
I'm not sure I've bet against the Lions all year, but I think this is a solid spot to take the points. The Lions defensive injuries are adding up and when you combine those injuries with the fact that Jordan Love is healthy and will enjoy optimal playing conditions, I think taking the points is the play. The Lions are dangerous, but this is a division game with a Packers offense that may be ascending and a Lions defense that may be descending. It feels like the optimal time to finally fade arguably the best team in football. I'll note that a back door cover is certainly in play here.
Two solid defenses meet on Monday Night Football, but the difference in this game is with the offensive weapons and the Quarterbacks. Most QBs struggle with pressure (both teams create pressure), and that's no different with Bo Nix and Jameis Winston, but Winston is far more turnover prone and I expect him to give the ball away one or two times tonight. Add to that the Broncos are at home, have better weapons and have way more at stake. It was an impressive division win for the Browns last week, but this sets up as a let down spot for a team that is out of the playoff picture.
Deebo Samuel was completely shut down last week, but if the 49ers want to have any chance agains the Bills, they'll need to get Deebo involved early and often. Good news for Deebo is that Brock Purdy is back for this game and I expect some Deebo utilization specifically in the short area passing game (which is why I'm targeting receptions over yards). The Bills defense has been great this year, but defending the slot has been an issue all year. Deebo cleared this number in his previous three games and I expect him to do it again on SNF.
It's a great matchup for Mike Evans and now that he's seemingly recovered from his hamstring injury, he's back to his role as the featured target for Baker Mayfield. He hit this number last week in his first game back, and that was particularly impressive considering they didn't really need him in the 2nd half. I expect the Panthers to push back enough offensively to keep Evans involved in the Bucs air attack.
A tale of two cultures as the Seahawks have new life and the Jets are seemingly waiting for a disaster season to end. The Jets enjoy the luxury of coming off a bye and getting to host a west coast team for a 1:00 EST start, but that's not enough to overcome their play on the field. The Jets defense hasn't been what it should be and the offense can't get on track. Seattle has been very good since coming off their bye and Mike Macdonald has them firmly in the playoff mix. Expect the better team with the better motivation to come out and get a much needed win.
We like to think that the Chargers defense is super formidable, but it could be a bit of smoke and mirrors, particularly versus the run. From a Yards Per Carry standpoint, the Chargers are well below average and they'll meet a very solid running game in Atlanta behind Bijan Robinson. Bijan was stymied versus Denver (before Atlanta's bye) mostly due to game script, but he had 19+ carries in each of the previous two games and rushed for 86 and 116 yards. I expect him to get at least 15-16 carries (maybe as many as 19 again) and that should be plenty to get over this line.
I made this same bet last week against the Ravens and it missed, but I'm happy to go right back to it against a Falcons team that doesn't create pressure and is pretty poor against the pass. I think the Chargers will rely even more on Justin Herbert without JK Dobbins and I think both teams move the ball relatively easily on offense. Prior to last week, Herbert had hit two touchdowns in 3 of 4 games. I expect Herbert and this wide receiver group to bounce back.