The pre-finals 'hypothetical' line was at sportsbooks prior to Saturday night's games and it was set at 5.5. As soon as Uconn beat Alabama that line was pounced upon and it's now at 6.5 in many markets. Purdue has had a nice run and they're a good team, but they're not the caliber of Uconn. Uconn has size to deal with Edey on the interior and I think Purdue's guards get swallowed up by Uconn's perimter defense. The boil cools to a simmer on Monday night and the Huskies triumph by 7 or more.

The Suns go to New Orleans for the last leg of a long road trip, but they did have an extra day of rest over the Peleicans. The Suns have been very inconsistent which should be a suprise to absolutely nobody, but they have played up to good competition on the road in big spots (see win at Denver) and this qualifies as a similar big spot and a similar situation as their win in Denver as the Nuggets were down Jamal Murray and the Pelicans are still down Brandon Ingram. It'll be too much scoring from the Suns and they get the win.

There's no question that Creighton is a solid team that can beat anyone if they are shooting well from beyond the arc, but we've seen plenty of variance when it comes to their outside shooting. I think we'll be on the correct side of that variance against a very athletic Tennessee team. Oregon did a great job containing Creighton in the 2nd half last weekend I think we'll see more of the same tonight against the Volunteers. Creighton is a fundamentally sound team and they matchup very well from an analytics standpoint, but they fail the eye test against the Vols.

Clemson is playing great basketball at the perfect time and now they face an Arizona team that has been very inconsistent this season. Yes, Arizona wins this matchup in most of the offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, but Clemson provides some matchup problems for Arizona as well. I expect Hall, Hunter and Girard to have big games and I expect Clemson to frustrate Arizona into bad shots by slowing the game down. One thing Clemson has been able to do all season is play highly ranked teams tough and I don't expect that to change against Arizona.

Baylor finished the season 3rd in the Big 12 while Clemson finished 5th in the lesser ACC. To Clemson's credit, they did play the top tier of the ACC very tough (UNC/Duke), but they also had some troubling losses down the stretch (ND/BC). Baylor can beat you in a myriad of ways and that includes cleaning up on the boards and perimiter shooting. I also think they have the type of star power than can carry them through big tournament games. I'm not sure which Clemson team we're going to get in this one, but I'm also not sure it matters.

North Texas went on the road a few days ago and beat an LSU team that played very well down the stretch of the season. Seton Hall didn't close the season super strong and I question their motivation in this one relative to North Texas. North Texas won the NIT last year and they exhibited their motivation to win again by going all out against LSU. I expect a similar performance on Saturday. North Texas plays great defense and when they get hot beyond the arc, they are tough to beat. Seton Hall doesn't have the firepower to be a two possession favorite.

Nevada comes in as the hotter team, particularly away from home, and that will serve them well on a neutral court. I'm unimpressed with Dayton's defense down the stretch and that poor defense has resulted in recent losses to Loyola Chicago and Duquesne. Nevada won seven games in a row prior to their MWC loss to Colorado State and I expect the winning to resume as long as Dayton doesn't get super hot from the 3-point line.

LSU was very solid down the stretch as they tinkered with their starting lineup and rotations. Those stretch-run adjustments by head coach Matt McMahon led to wins over Kentucky and South Carolina among others. North Texas plays great defense, but is too reliant on 3 point shooting and I think their offense will sputter at times. LSU beat this North Texas team in November by 4 and LSU is a better team now than they were back then. North Texas won the NIT last year, but I think they're an early exit this year.

It's a good spot for the healthy Golden State Warriors as they battle at home against the Knicks who are still without Robinson and Randle who have a banged up OG Anunoby. I expect Anunoby to play, but it'll certaily be a bonus for this pick if he sits and waits to play Denver on Thursday. Either way, the Warriors come in the more healthy team and motivated to steal some wins back after losing a few games without Curry. The Warriors have Curry back and have contributors everywhere at the moment, including from Klay Thompson off the bench. Good spot to catch the Knicks on their 3rd of 4 road games in a row.

Ever since the start of February Nebraska has been one of the hotter teams in the Big Ten. It's true that they've mostly beaten up on bottom feeder Big Ten opponents, but in that span, they've also played good teams very tough. Indiana is not one of those good teams and they could have easily lost to Penn State last night in a game where neither team looked impressive. Nebraska comes into this game as the more talented team and that's showcased in their offensive and defensive ratings. I expect them to win this one by 5 or more.

Kansas State is desperate for a win in order to qualify for March Madness, but I don't think they have enough to hang with the Longhorns. Texas has a knack for losing to Big 12 elites and beating up on the rest of the Big 12 and KState is firmly in the "rest of" category as they lack scoring and tend to only flash with quality wins at home. Ultimately Texas has too much firepower and is too well rounded and pulls away in this one.

This is a big line, but Louisville is a bad team and has been losing by double digits more often than not lately. NC State has also been losing lately but they've had a much tougher schedule with their last 3 losses by single digits at UNC, home versus Duke and at Pittsburgh (notable that NC State won at Clemson in mid-February). The Wolfpack outclass the Cards in offensive and defensive efficiency, and their offense in particular should put up enough points to cover this number.

Arkansas State took out number 1 seed Appalachian State last night in an absolute thriller, but I think the magic ends for them tonight against The Dukes. Arkansas State has some dynamic scorers, but defensively they are very porous and JMU has too much on both ends of the floor for Arkansas State to compete for the full 40 minutes. Expect Arkansas State to put up a fight, but destiny is calling for the Dukes to go dancing and they pull away late in this one.

The Atlantic Sun tournament starts tonight and pairs two teams that are both playing well against each other. Yes, each team is near the bottom of their conference standings, and therefore playing the "play-in" game, but they've both won 3 of their last 4. FGCU defeated Queens 10 days ago 90-81 but that was thanks in part to some hot shooting from FGCU. I think Queens keeps this one close and has a shot at an outright win.

I really like this spot for Butler who have lost four games in a row against a St. John's team that appears to have caught momentum. With that perception, I'll be on the other side knowing that Butler is a solid team and that they have an opportunity to close the season strong and become March Madness relevant. I'm happy to catch a solid Butler team at home in this spot.