This feels like a fair price with Miles Mikolas on the mound for the Nationals. Bailey Ober is going for the Twins and he certainly hasn't been dominant, but he's only allowed 3 earned runs over his last 3 starts (going at least 6 innings in each). I expect Ober to pitch to contact and give up a run or two, but I also fully expect the Twins to get the better of Miles Mikolas who simply doesn't have the stuff to be a starting pitcher any longer. The Twins went for 11 runs on Tuesday against the Nats and I think they continue their hitting ways today.

Kai-Wei Teng gets the start for the Astros and he's been very solid so far in 2026 (albeit, in a bullpen role). It's unknown how long he will go, but I think he can keep the Orioles bats relatively quiet early. Shane Baz goes for The Orioles and he has been downright bad over his last few outings: allowing 11 earned runs over three games and a ton of traffic on the bases. It doesn't help Baz that the Astros are pretty great against righties. I also lean to the Astros over 2.5 First Five at +120.

It's not exactly the "buy low" I had in mind as I'm laying some juice (BetMGM has the best price) for a struggling Phillies team, but I do love the pitching matchup. Christopher Sanchez hasn't been perfect this year, but he's a far better pitcher than Edward Cabrera. The Phillies bats have been quiet, but they're better against righties and I expect them to get to Cabrera, who has allowed plenty of baserunners over his last two outings.

It's not easy backing a Royals team that only has 7 wins in their first 23 games, but I think we've got a good spot to lean on a Royals First Five. As usual, I'm leaning on the pitching matchup with Kris Bubic over Shane Baz. Bubic hasn't been great to start the season, but his metrics are far more favorable than Baz. The Royal bats have been quiet, but they do fare better against righties and Baz allows enough baserunners that I think we get a Royals First Five winner.

The Tigers have rattled off 8 wins in their last 9 games and that includes two in a row on the road in Boston. Detroit's bats have been underwhelming against righties, but Boston's have been worse in that department and now Boston gets Jack Flaherty, who was great over his last two starts (Royals and Twins). Sonny Gray has been average to start the season and got rocked by the Twins last time out. We've got an edge with the bats and the pitching matchup and a good plus money price for the road team.

I'll take the better team and the far better pitching matchup with this first five play. The Orioles bats haven't come alive to start the season, but they should be able to scratch out a couple of runs against Shane Smith, who has had a very shaky start to his season. The scoring environment won't be great for either team Tuesday afternoon, but I'm expecting Trevor Rogers to continue to roll and the Orioles to be leading after five innings. I'd play this up to the -140 range.

Soriano was great in his first outing against the Astros while Jameson Tallion had an awful spring training (although he was solid in the WBC versus Panama). The weather is going to limit runs all around and Soriano's great start along with his knack for producing ground balls should keep the scoring low on the Cubs side. The Angels have been putting up runs through five games and I think they can scratch out some runs against Tallion in the first five. You can take the F5 ML at a plus number if you don't want to lay the juice. Notable that DK has this bet at -125.

As much as I would love to play the First 5 ML, I just don't want to lay the heavy juice and I think the Royals will have the lead by the end of the 5th. Kris Bubic is on the mound for KC and he's enjoyed a solid spring training (coming back from a good 2025 which ended with injury). The Twins will trot out Simeon Woods Richardson who is prone to giving up runs, courtesy of hard hits and the deep ball. The run scoring environment should be great when you factor in the weather and the Royals should be able to take advantage early.

I'm going right back to TCU as this is too many points. Duke has a small chance to get one of their guys back, but they are still without Caleb Foster. I think the lack of depth will reveal itself against a physical TCU team and it wouldn't surprise me if the Duke backcourt has some issues. TCU is coming off an impressive win against a hot Ohio State team and they are certainly the more battle tested squad coming ouf of the Big 12. There's an argument that they have the coaching edge as well, and I think that's particularly important with a Duke team that is down an integral player or two.

I was looking to back this TCU team in some way coming into the tournament as I love how they've looked down the stretch. Granted, Ohio State has looked very good as well, but TCU has a coaching edge behind Jamie Dixon and they have the ability to get some easy baskets with their rebounding edge. TCU has also shown up in a big way in neutral court games. I think all of this leads to a TCU cover and perhaps an outright win.

I don't think the market has fully appreciated the loss of Caleb Wilson for North Carolina. Yes, Henri Veesaar is back and will be a force inside, but I think the Louisville guard play and 3 point shooting will prove to be too much for the Heels. Louisiville is on a nice run winning 6 of 7 games and I think their perimiter shooting, offensive rebounding and excellent free throw shooting down the stretch will ice this one.

It's difficult to assess passing volume for the Patriots on the season as they have been involved in plenty of games where the offense hasn't been pushed. I don't think that will be the case on Sunday as we're likely looking at a neutral or negative game script for the Patriots. Josh McDaniels has had two weeks to gameplan for this one, and I think we'll see Maye get the ball out faster than normal and exploit the short area to move the chains.

Stafford has struggled a bit on the road in the playoffs, but he gets a familair matchup against the Seahawks and a TD number that he has smashed pretty much all regular season (11 games in a row with 2+ passing TDs or more prior to the playoffs). I'm not as worried about the finger injury as some and I also think this prop is game script proof, as the Rams have learned the hard way that they need to keep the pedal down for all 4 quarters against the Seahawks.

A lot of juice here and I'm good with playing the 12.5 line at anything near even money. Rhamondre Stevenson appears to be the lead back in this offense as TreVeyon has taken a bit of a back seat (look no further than the efficience numbers to see why). Rhamondre had 16 carries last week and probably would have had more if not for a 2nd quarter eye injury that had him miss some time. A likely neutral and/or positive game script should be in play against Denver and I expect time of possession to favor the Patriots, which will lead to more plays for the Patriots. Look for Rhamondre to get to at least 13-14 carries (this line at FD).

BetMGM opened this Stefon Diggs prop at 51.5 and that number is now gone, but DK still has it at 50.5 (I would play this under as low as 48.5). The Patriot receiver group has a tough matchup against the Texans and I think Diggs is likely to get plenty of attention from the Texans top two corners. The Patriots like to utilize all of their receiving weapons and that includes the likes of Chism, Williams, Douglas, Henry, Boutte and the running backs. With a tough matchup in mind and the fact that Maye is likely to spread it thin across his plethora of pass catchers, I don't see Diggs having enough big splash plays to hit this over.