R.J.'s Picks (3 Live)
The Steelers need a win here to remain a game up on the Ravens, and they're going to have a key matchup advantage at tight end. The Dolphins allow the second most receiving yards to TEs in the league, and Pittsburgh has three good ones. But Washington has been the snap leader at the position for much of the season, on the field more than 60% of the time in seven of the last 10 games. He's had multiple catches in six of those seven high snap games and less than 20 yards only once. He's tended to be more involved at home as well, and the cold weather should make him tough to bring down. I'd play this up to 24.5.
We'll see if De'Von Achane is able to play, but early indication is that his injury is minor. Whoever the Dolphins roll out at RB could be in for a monster game, as the Steelers have been gashed for 466 rushing yards the last two weeks. Miami has 160+ rushing yards in four straight, even with Achane leaving early last week, so Miami's path to offensive success is clear. The Dolphins defense has allowed 17 points or less in four straight, and the Steelers offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders down the stretch. This is one that should be 3 at best, so I'll take the hook.
The Cowboys are moderate favorites tonight and typically play well at home, and I expect Williams is going to get into the end zone on one of their scoring drives. He's scored in eight of his 13 games, and he's averaging more than 20 touches over the last four weeks. Five of the six offensive TDs the Vikings have given up over the last four games have been RB rushing touchdowns, four from the 1-yard line, and Williams is the trusted back at the goal line for Dallas. I think this should be in the -150 range.
J.J. McCarthy is coming off his best game of the season, but he also got to throw against air. The Cowboys defense has been better in recent weeks, including helping the team beat the Eagles and Chiefs in their last two at home. The Dallas offense also shines at home, where the Cowboys have just one game under 400 yards gained. The lookahead was 7.5 and that's probably a better number for this matchup with the Cowboys on extra rest.
The Colts would love to get ahead early and keep Jonathan Taylor as the focal point of their offense, but at some point Philip Rivers is going to have to throw some passes. I expect his primary weapon to be Warren, who has been a key weapon for Indy most of the year but disappeared a bit the last two weeks, though one was against a tough Houston defense and the other featured a QB in Riley Leonard just trying to keep his head above water. The Seahawks allow the second most yards per game to tight ends, so this is a great matchup for Warren to shine.
This will be a fascinating game with Philip Rivers on the field for the first time in five years, and the market certainly expects the Seahawks to run away with it. If that's the case, there's a good chance the ball is taken out of Darnold's hands. In the five of his 13 starts where he's been over this attempts number, two were losses and two saw the Seahawks tied or behind at the half. Conversely, in the two recent games where the Seahawks were also double digit favorites, Darnold had 26 pass attempts in each. I think that's around where he finishes again in this one.
The Titans are coming off a rare win, so it's time to fade them even at the high number. The 49ers' last five wins have all been by double digits, and they held two bad offenses to single digits before their bye. The Titans offense has had more than 300 yards twice all year and didn't do much for the final three quarters last week. The 49ers have 26+ points in four of their last five, and the WR corps should be running closer to full health coming out of the bye. I think the 49ers roll.
The Saints are coming off a surprising win over the Bucs, which means now is the time to fade them. They've lost all but one home game by at least five points, while the Panthers have won three of their last four road games. In Carolina's last four wins, they've turned the ball over a total of one time, and generating turnovers has been a general problem for the Saints defense, which has multiple takeaways in only two games. I expect the Panthers to run the ball much better here than in their first meeting, and their defense should allow them to win this game by at least a field goal.
I have the Rams as the best team in the league in my power ratings, but I'm jumping on the Lions with this line at 6 at DraftKings. Detroit has the No. 1 scoring offense in the league after a big game against the Cowboys, with a top-five mark in net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush. Recent losses have come down to uncharacteristic struggles on fourth down, and a typical day on that front will allow them to stay close. There are few teams I trust more to get a backdoor cover if needed as well. The lookahead was 4.5 and the Lions had a much needed big win. Why the inflation? I think this line should be 4.
This line has trended to Denver over the week, and I think the Packers are a good enough value to jump on at -1 or -115 ML. Both defenses should dictate this game, and while Denver may have the better unit on that front, I trust Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur way more than I do Bo Nix and Sean Payton. The Packers' consistently strong rushing attack is expected to have Josh Jacobs, and I think that gives them the edge in what should be a close, lower-scoring game.
The Eagles need this game to halt what's currently a three-game losing streak, and they'll probably get the win. But there's no world where they should be laying 12 points with how the offense is currently producing. With around 16 points per game over the last five weeks, the Eagles would need to hold the Raiders to just three points to feel good about covering, and it's hard to count on that from your defense when you've turned the ball over nine times in the last three games. The Eagles have been soft against the run the last few weeks, so Kenny Pickett should get plenty of help from Ashton Jeanty. With a total in the 30s, we have to look to taking double-digit 'dogs.
It's do-or-die for the Chiefs the rest of the way, and if they're going to win this one, it's going to take a big effort from the defense. The Chargers had just 3.9 yards per play in the win over the Eagles, a number that looks even worse once you take out the 60-yard catch and run by Kimani Vidal early. The Chiefs offense wasn't much better at 4.3 yards per play, and both defenses are playing well right now. While the Brazil game featured plenty of points in Week 1, the two Chiefs-Chargers matchups last year had 27 and 36 points. I see a similar game on tap this week.