How much does Kirk Cousins matter? Ask Justin Jefferson and an offense that has 213 net passing yards or fewer in every game. ...

The Chiefs defense could force a win as the Falcons' explosive start under Penix has since stalled ...

White could make noise if the Giants focus on stopping Daniels, as they gave up 82 yards on 11 carries to a RB in their last matchup. ...

A stacked Rams defense with Myles Garrett could limit Arizona’s struggling offense ...

The Packers defense has allowed fewer than 5 yards per play all season, facing a Vikings offense ranked 30th in efficiency ...

A dominant 49ers defense, fresh off a season-low 240 yards allowed, steps up to face an inconsistent Cowboys offense ...

The Dolphins defense delivered its best performance of the season last week, holding Detroit to 4.7 yards per play ...

The Lions managed just 270 yards and one touchdown in a win over the Dolphins despite facing a struggling defense ...

The Commanders are a serious threat despite injuries, with Daniels throwing zero interceptions and the Giants' offense struggling. ...

The Bills' biggest game of the season turned into a clunker with Lamar Jackson hurt on his first snap, and you can't tell much about the defense facing an emergency QB. But the Vikings offense is coming off two uninspiring efforts against questionable defenses, and the unit has managed just six offensive TDs since Week 2. That's not going to cut it against the best scoring offense in the league, even with the best scoring defense on the other side of the ball. The Bills have scored 24+ in every game, 26+ when not turning the ball over five times and 33+ in five of seven games. A good Lions defense got to 19 against Minnesota, and the Bills should reach 20 and cover.

The Vikings' defense has a tough test ahead, facing the top-scoring offense in the league, and even at home, I think they'll only be able to do so much. However, one area I expect they'll have success is causing at least 1-2 turnovers. Josh Allen tends to put the ball in danger against tougher opponents, with his only pickless games this season coming against the Raiders, Lions and a struggling Texans defense in Week 1 (though he threw a ball right at a Houston defender in the end zone late). The elite Vikings defense should be able to get to him for at least one interception, and I'd take this prop all the way up to -125.

Josh Allen is up against one of the most dangerous defenses in the league, and I expect Joe Brady will want to give him a chance to get the ball out quickly with consistent pressure expected. Ty Johnson will be key in blitz pickup but I also expect him to find opportunities to win on routes despite the Vikings allowing just 18.4 RB receiving yards per game. The Ravens lead the league in that stat and Johnson still managed three catches for 19 yards last week, his fourth time in five games getting over this number. I think you can play this up to that same number and expect he'll be north of 20 receiving yards on Monday.

The Bears are off a stunning performance in Seattle, and we have to be careful not to buy high. But the lookahead for this game was also Bears -6, and I'm more a believer that the Bears are an elite team with Jeffery Simmons stabilizing the defense than I am the Buccaneers are a good team after two weird wins where they didn't have to throw the ball. The Bucs defense has been strong this season, but Chicago just carved up what might be the best defense in the league so I can't expect scoring will be impossible for the Bears. If the Bucs get behind, will we finally see something from the passing attack? I think this should be north of 7.

Ashton Jeanty saw his playing time plummet last week as he continued to be phased out of the rushing attack, but he still made an impact as a receiver thanks to a 45-yard catch. That gave him 50 receiving yards in four of the last five games and 36 receiving yards in six straight. He's only fallen short of this mark once this season, and even there, he had seven targets but couldn't gain longer than seven yards on any of his four receptions. The 49ers have surrendered seven RB receptions per game, and they're the only defense giving up 50 receiving yards to RBs. I like buying the dip and hoping his playing time rebounds, but he could hit this number in limited work.

The Packers will get some extra rest to heal up for this matchup against a Patriots team that struggled to put the Dolphins away. While they should fare better at home, I've been encouraged by the performance of the Packers' defense in recent weeks. Their early-season success came with a number of caveats, but holding the Cowboys, Lions and Panthers to 20 points or less in three straight is notable. The Patriots' offensive surge has coincided with a slate of bad defensive opponents, so if Jordan Love can have success against a defense that gave up 26+ points to the Jaguars, Bills and Bears, the Packers could certainly win this game. I'm grabbing the 3 while I can, as I can't see this line rising.