R.J.'s Picks (9 Live)
J.J. McCarthy has turned the narrative around with two straight quality performances against NFC East defenses ...
The Colts put up an impressive fight against the Seahawks in Seattle last week ...
The Eagles finally got back on track against the Raiders, and this is another good matchup for their offense. The Washington defense has allowed 3+ TDs in every game played stateside since Week 6, and giving up 21 points and 384 yards to the Giants last week represents one of their best outings in that stretch. We're used to seeing Hurts' ATD prop at much shorter odds in this type of matchup, and even if Lane Johnson isn't able to make it back this week, I think he shouldn't be plus odds to score against a defense that gives up loads of points.
The Eagles can wrap up the division Saturday night, and all it will take is beating a Commanders team with an awful defense and a beat-up offense. Marcus Mariota is a serviceable fill-in at QB, but with Zach Ertz done, the Washington receivers will have to win their battles against Philly's pair of excellent sophomore CBs. Mariota also won't have Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, and that's a major loss against Philly's edge rushing talent. As long as the Eagles offense shows up again this week like it did against the Raiders, they should win by at least a touchdown.
With Davante Adams unlikely to play, the Rams passing game figures to funnel through one key player. But I see this number as simply too high for this particular Thursday night game where the weather could suppress offense. The Seahawks held Nacua to 75 receiving yards in the first meeting, and all defensive attention will likely go to limiting his output, which is notable considering the elite unit opposing him. The Seahawks haven't allowed more than 90 yards to a wide receiver since Week 5, and the last three players to get to 90 receiving yards against them have been tight ends. We also have to wonder about the potential for team discipline in the form of early-game benching following Nacua's livestream antics this week.
We're looking at a few different reasons to like this play. First, these defenses forced the opposing QBs into their worst games of the year in the first meeting, resulting in a 21-19 finish. Second, that was indoors and this matchup will be outside in what are expected to be windy and possibly rainy conditions that could affect the kicking game and deep passing. Third, key offensive players will be missing on both sides, with Davante Adams doubtful and Charles Cross out. Without his left tackle, Sam Darnold is in danger of another poor outing, which would be his fourth in a six-game stretch. Divisional rematches trend to the Under historically, and these conditions are ripe for it to hit here.
The Steelers need a win here to remain a game up on the Ravens, and they're going to have a key matchup advantage at tight end. The Dolphins allow the second most receiving yards to TEs in the league, and Pittsburgh has three good ones. But Washington has been the snap leader at the position for much of the season, on the field more than 60% of the time in seven of the last 10 games. He's had multiple catches in six of those seven high snap games and less than 20 yards only once. He's tended to be more involved at home as well, and the cold weather should make him tough to bring down. I'd play this up to 24.5.
We'll see if De'Von Achane is able to play, but early indication is that his injury is minor. Whoever the Dolphins roll out at RB could be in for a monster game, as the Steelers have been gashed for 466 rushing yards the last two weeks. Miami has 160+ rushing yards in four straight, even with Achane leaving early last week, so Miami's path to offensive success is clear. The Dolphins defense has allowed 17 points or less in four straight, and the Steelers offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders down the stretch. This is one that should be 3 at best, so I'll take the hook.