The Bengals' backup running back, Samaje Perine, is out with a high ankle sprain. This means Chase Brown will go back to his high-volume role he had last season and last week. I like betting Brown's rush + receiving because it gives multiple outs with his volume and doesn't rely on game script. Brown exceeded this rush + receiving line in the last three games with Joe Flacco under center, including the first matchup with the Steelers in October. No matter the game script for the Bengals, I like Brown to soar past this combo line.

The Bengals have given up 12 touchdowns this season to tight ends. That's almost double the next teams, who have given up seven touchdowns to tight ends (Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets). In their first matchup this season, the Bengals gave up four touchdowns to the Steelers' tight ends. Two of those touchdowns that night were to Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth has historically done well against the Bengals' defense. I don't know if Freiermuth gets two touchdowns again Sunday against the Bengals, but I certainly like this price for him to find the endzone again at least once on Sunday.

We know that the Vikings' defensive coordinator Brian Flores isn't afraid to blitz a lot and put pressure on quarterbacks. In the Bears' first meeting against the Vikings, that happened, and Caleb Williams rushed for 58 yards. Williams has exceeded this rushing line in the last three games and five times this season. Look for him to use his legs again on Sunday against the Vikings' pass rush and exceed this line.

Speed kills the Washington defense, as they are old and slow. As a Washington fan, I know this all too well. The Washington defense is a pristine matchup for running backs, giving up 5.5 yards per carry and a 55% success rate to running backs over the last five weeks. The speed of De'Von Achane makes me love his longest rush over prop. He has gone over this prop in six of his 10 games this season. Look for him to do it again Sunday morning.

I believe the answer is yes. As I mentioned for De'Von Achane, speed crushes the older, slower Washington defense. Jaylen Waddle should also have a field day Sunday morning in Madrid. Since Tyreek Hill's season-ending injury, Waddle has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He has a pristine matchup against the Washington secondary that gets destroyed week after week by WR1s. We are getting plus money for Waddle to find the endzone, and that feels like a gift.

Jahmyr Gibbs has been inconsistent this season, and coming off a bad game against the Vikings, where he only had 28 total yards. This is the ultimate get-right spot for Gibbs and the entire Lions' offense against this struggling and banged-up Commanders' defense. Over the last four weeks, Washington has allowed 5 yards per carry to enemy running backs. They give up the 10th most rushing yards and the 8th most receiving yards to running backs. Look for Gibbs to get right and exceed this combo line on Sunday.

I think the answer is, yes. Sam LaPorta is coming off a big game with 97 receiving yards and a touchdown. Now LaPorta has a pristine matchup against the Commanders' defense, a bad defense in general, but especially bad against tight ends. Washington is 30th in touchdown rate to tight ends (10.3% touchdown rate). I think the Lions put up a ton of points against Washington on Sunday, and I think LaPorta will find the endzone.

In their first matchup, James Cook rushed for 108 yards and one touchdown against the Dolphins in September. Cook has cleared this rushing line in six of his eight games this season. And the Dolphins have given up the 3rd most rushing yards to running backs this season. In a likely positive game script, I like Cook to soar past this line again on Sunday.

I usually like to target plus money touchdowns, but I like this price for De'Von Achane to find the endzone against the Bills on Sunday. The Bills' run defense has been bad all season, and they give up the 2nd most rushing touchdowns to running backs (10). Of course, for an Anytime TD bet, Achane can get there on the ground or through the air. He has seven total touchdowns this season. And with a great matchup on Sunday, I look for him to score another touchdown.

Rico Dowdle has taken over as the true RB1 for the Panthers, getting 27 touches last week for 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns. In the three games that Dowdle has operated as the Panthers' bellcow, he has rushed for 130, 183, and 206 yards. He now faces a Saints' defense that gives up the 6th most rushing yards to running backs this season. Look for Dowdle to exceed this line, and I don't mind betting 100+ rushing yards for plus money.

Last week, Ashton Jeanty caught five passes for 47 receiving yards. I'm not expecting that tonight in the receiving game for Jeanty, but I do like him to clear his receiving line of just 16.5. Since Week 5, Jeanty has 113 receiving yards and has run a route on 55% of passing plays for a 14.9% target share. Add in tonight that Jakobi Meyers has been traded, which took some short-area targets. Also, the Raiders will likely be playing in a negative game script. All of this adds up to like Jeanty's over receiving line.

Patrick Mahames has rushed for 280 yards in eight games this season (35 yards per game average). We know if the game is on the line, Mahomes will not be afraid to use his legs and scramble. We expect this Chiefs vs. Bills game to be close, so I would also expect Mahomes to scramble when necessary. Mahomes has exceeded this rushing line in six of his eight games this season. He's exceeded this line in the last four games. The Bills also give up the 2nd most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.

While Kareem Hunt is not an exciting pick, he already has five touchdowns on the season so far. Now, with Isiah Pacheco out, he has the opportunity to get even more carries and opportunities in a huge game against the Bills on Sunday. Add in that the Bills are a great matchup to target for running backs. The Bills have given up the 2nd most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season (9). Then we get a plus money price of +105. I love this price for Hunt to find the endzone.

The total for the Colts vs. Steelers sits at 50.5. Both defenses have their warts, and the Colts give up the 3rd most receiving yards to wide receivers through eight games. With the way the Steelers' defense and Colts' offense are playing, I expect the Steelers to be in a negative game script. Metcalf gets 21.7% of Aaron Rodgers' targets, and I wouldn't be surprised if that was higher in this matchup and game script. I like Metcalf to sail over this line on Sunday.

George Kittle found the endzone last Sunday against the Texans in a difficult matchup, and I expect him to find paydirt again this Sunday against the Giants. Kittle has scored two touchdowns in just three games this season. Since he returned two weeks ago, Kittle has been on the field 85% and 91% of the dropbacks. Ricky Pearsall is out again for the 49ers, so Kittle will need to be a redzone target for Mac Jones. I like the price of +130 for Kittle to score a touchdown again on Sunday.