Megan's Picks (2 Live)
We saw the explosive plays that the Steelers' secondary gave up to Zay Flowers in Week 18. Now we have Nico Collins in position to feast against this Steelers' secondary, which allows a 48.9% completion rate on throws 20 or more yards to receivers (31st). Collins has 37% of the Texans' air yards this season. He has gone over this longest reception prop in over half the games this season. I believe he is in a position to go over this line again on Monday night.
We think of TreVeyon Henderson as a dual-threat Patriots' running back. But in the last five games, it's been Rhamondre Stevenson who has gotten more of the targets and receiving work. That has given us an edge, in my opinion, as Stevenson's receiving line is set at a low 13.5. He's gone over this number and over 20 receiving yards in the last five games. I'm likely going to alt his line up to 20+ receiving yards.
I almost wrote up Trevor Lawrence ATD, as Lawrence has nine rushing touchdowns this season. I may still sprinkle on that. But I like Lawrence's rushing line. We typically see quarterbacks who do run, tend to take off and run more in the must-win playoffs. Lawrence has been effective scrambling and rushing this season, rushing for 359 yards and nine touchdowns. The Bills' defense is 29th in rushing yards given up to quarterbacks. So I'm going to lean into Lawrence's tendency to run more this season, the quarterback's tendency to run more in the playoffs, and the matchup for this bet.
The Jaguars have a good defense, but where they are weaker is against the tight end position. The Jaguars give up the 8th most touchdowns to the tight end position and a 5.7% touchdown rate (18th). Similar to how Josh Allen knew to target his tight ends against the Bengals (both Kincaid and Dawson Knox had touchdowns in that game), I think he'll know where to go in the redzone against the Jaguars, too. We're getting a great ATD price for Allen's true top receiving option.
After playing a couple of partial games late in the season due to injuries (limited snaps and carries) and sitting out Week 18, Josh Jacobs says he's healthy and good to go for Saturday's Wildcard game. From Week 1 through Week 15, Josh Jacobs scored in all but three games. He scored a touchdown in the Week 14 matchup against the Bears' defense. I think the Packers will lean on a healthy Josh Jacobs, and he'll find the endzone again on Saturday night. I sprinkled on a parlay of Jacobs + Davante Adams' ATDs since I like both to score Saturday.
Davante Adams missed three games this season, and he still was the leader in touchdowns among all wide receivers by three touchdowns (14). Now, the king of the endzone (and redzone targets) is back! Adams had two touchdowns in this same matchup in November. I usually like hunting for plus money ATDs, but this feels like a great price still, even at -135. I sprinkled on Adams' First TD and 2+ TDs as well.
DK Metcalf is still out (suspended) for the must-win game for the Steelers on Sunday night. Last week, when Metcalf was out, Marques Valdes-Scantling had an 82% snap count and received seven targets. He only turned those targets into 21 yards, but I think he can improve on that this week against the Ravens. Remember, just a few weeks ago, Metcalf had 142 receiving yards against the Ravens. A receiver is going to need to step up in this must-win game for the Steelers with Metcalf still out. I like Valdes-Scantling's familiarity with Rodgers to make him the top candidate. And this is a low line to go over considering his role this week and the matchup. I'll likely ladder this to 40 yards.
Juwan Johnson has developed a great connection with rookie QB Tyler Shough. In the last two weeks, he has a total of 184 receiving yards. I think he'll keep it rolling in Week 18, mainly because star WR Chris Olave is out. So Johnson's 20% target rate will likely go up by a good margin this week. Look for Johnson to soar past this line again this week to close out the season strong with his rookie QB.
Currently, Bijan Robinson is RB3 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. He's had an amazing season, and can put a bow on it in Week 18 against the Saints. The Saints' defense gives up the 7th most rushing yards to running backs this year. And we know Robinson's explosive, elusive running style. Robinson has gone over this longest rush line in five of the last seven games. I think he'll soar past it on Sunday on the way to a big game.
Sam Darnold and the Seahawks are playing for the NFC West and the #1 seed on Saturday night against the 49ers. Darnold has a great matchup against the 49ers' banged-up defense, which gives up the 5th most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks (29) this season. Darnold also has a player incentive that if he throws for three touchdowns on Saturday, he'll get a $500,000 bonus. In a must-win game, the Seahawks aren't going to force this bonus for Darnold. But I think this bonus could be hit naturally, which, of course, means over 1.5 passing TDs would hit. I'll also bet the alt of 3+ Passing Touchdowns for Darnold.
Just like I bet and wrote up Sam Darnold's 2+ Passing Touchdowns (and sprinkled on 3+ Passing Touchdowns), I also like Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this matchup. Smith-Njigba also has a very nice matchup against the 49ers' injured defense. He also leads all receivers in target share (36.2%) and has 15 redzone targets this season. Whether it's a redzone target or a deep pass (47% air yards share), I like him to find the endzone on Saturday night to cash this bet.
I get that Bucky Irving is the RB1 for the Bucs. But Rachaad White still gets an average of 45% of the snaps since Irving returned in Week 13. Two weeks ago, in this same matchup against the Panthers, White had 45 rushing yards on just five carries. White has cleared this line in three of the last four games on limited carries. And as long as he gets three or four carries, I believe he'll clear this very low line again.
Saquon Barkley has scored a touchdown in the last three games. Barkley now gets the Bills' run defense, which has given up the most touchdowns to running backs this season. A lot of rain is expected in Buffalo, so this should be a ground game as well. I can't believe we're getting even money for Barkley to find the endzone on Sunday.