We know to target tight ends against the Chiefs. We saw what Brock Bowers did to the Chiefs on Black Friday. While Will Dissly isn't Brock Bowers, he still should succeed in this matchup. Tight ends are targeted 27% of the time against the Chiefs. Coming off zero catches last week, I like Dissly to bounce back in a big way tonight. WR Ladd McConkey is a game-time decision, and either way Dissly is an excellent red-zone target for QB Justin Herbert tonight.

Brian Thomas Jr. had 76 receiving yards last week with Mac Jones under center for the Jaguars. He can have another big game with Jones against a banged-up Titans defense. Lately, the Titans' defense has been a perimeter funnel, and been stingy in the slot. We know Thomas Jr. is explosive and can exceed this line on a few catches, similar to Jameson Williams and Christian Watson on Thursday night. Thomas Jr. has exceeded this line in the last two games and I like him to surpass it again today.

We aren't expecting 235 receiving yards today, but I still believe Jerry Jeudy will exceed this receiving prop. He has surpassed this line in every game with Jameis Winston as his quarterback. With Cedric Tillman out, the target tree has condensed to just a few pass catchers, with Jeudy being the main target. In this matchup against the Steelers in the snow a couple of weeks ago, he had six catches for 85 yards. The Browns showed last week that they will move Jeudy around to give him advantageous matchups. So I like him to exceed his receiving prop in this AFC North battle.

With Taysom Hill out for the season in addition to all of the Saints' many injuries, TE Juwan Johnson has even more opportunity and likely target share against the Giants today. Johnson ran a route last week on 79% of dropbacks for a 20.6% target share. Look for more of the same today. The Saints are also getting back two offensive linemen this week, which should give QB Derek Carr a clean pocket to find Johnson downfield more often.

Sam Darnold has excelled this season from a clean pocket, with a 72% completion rate and a 5.5% touchdown rate. The Falcons' defense is 31st in pressure rate in the NFL, so this sets up as a great matchup for Darnold and the Vikings' offense. Darnold is 5th in the NFL in touchdown passes (23) and he's thrown for multiple scores the last three weeks in a row. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 9 of 12 games this season. I like this line even with the juice, but I will sprinkle on three passing touchdowns as well.

Since Puka Nacua returned from injury he has soared past this receiving prop in every game he's played except one. The lone game he did not exceed this prop was when he was ejected against the Seahawks. So when Nacua has played a full game this season, he exceeds this prop, no matter the matchup. Nacua has been targeted on 34% of his routes, a league-high. The matchup against the Saints' defense is pristine as well. The Saints have given up the 5th most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. Look for Nacua to fly past this prop again. I will likely bet this up to 100 yards at plus odds.

With WR Mike Evans back last week, QB Baker Mayfield completed 80% of his passes against the Giants. Today he faces the Carolina Panthers, who do not pressure the quarterback and are a great matchup for Mayfield and the Buccaneers' offense. We also know the Buccaneers have a high pass rate over expectation, so I like Mayfield to keep it rolling and soar past his passing prop today.

Tony Pollard has a great matchup on the ground this week against the Commanders. The Commanders give up the most rushing yards to running backs and are tied for the 3rd most touchdowns to running backs (11). Whether Pollard breaks a long one or gets goal-line carry, I like him to score today at this Anytime Touchdown price.

Since Week 8, Justin Herbert has not been afraid to take off and run. Herbert is a great athlete, so it's been fun to see him use his legs successfully more recently. Herbert has rushed for 29 or more rushing yards in four of the last five games. The Falcons give up the 6th most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. So I like Herbert to continue to run and surpass this low line of 22.5 rushing yards.

Jonnu Smith has been Tua Tagovailoa's go-to target since Tagovailoa returned from his injury. Smith leads the Dolphins' pass catchers with a 20.8% target share since Tagovailoa returned. That has led to big games for Smith recently, including three touchdowns in the last two games. Smith has a good matchup against the Packers' defense that allows a 5.3% touchdown rate to tight ends. I like Smith to find the end zone again tonight and love the Anytime Touchdown price for him.

Since Week 5, QB Bo Nix has ranked 4th in fantasy points per game. A big part of that is the number of touchdown passes he has thrown. Since Week 5, Nix has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of seven games. Now Nix has a top-10 matchup against the Raiders and I like him to throw for at least two touchdowns or more on Sunday.

Jake Ferguson is out Sunday from a concussion that he sustained in Monday night's game against the Texans. After Ferguson left the game, Cowboys' TE Luke Schoonmaker got 10 targets from QB Cooper Rush. He caught six passes for 56 yards. Rush & Schoonmaker will likely be playing from a very negative game script on Sunday vs. the Commanders. With the Commanders' pass rush, Rush will have to get the ball out quickly, so I like Schoonmaker to see a lot of targets again. This is a volume play and I like him to soar past his receiving line.

Jonnu Smith caught six balls for 101 receiving yards last week against the Raiders. Can he back that up in Week 12? I think so, as Smith has been more involved in the offense since Week 5. Coincidently, that was the same week the Dolphins played the Patriots. Smith had 62 receiving yards against the Patriots with a much inferior quarterback. Now with Tua Tagovailoa back, Smith is getting consistent target share and making the most of it. I like him to clear his receiving prop again vs. the Patriots.

Calvin Ridley is known as a deep threat and has connected for a 23 or more yards reception five times this season. Four of those five times have been in the last five weeks since he is now the main Titans' target with WR DeAndre Hopkins traded to the Chiefs. He would have had five of the last five weeks, but he had a 50+ yard reception called back last week. He still had a reception of 21 yards, very close to this line. But the matchup also dictates this is a good play. The Texans' secondary can be attacked deep, as they allow the 12th-most receiving yards on throws traveling 20 or more yards.

We know Nico Collins can put up huge numbers anytime he touches the field. He had a huge touchdown pass called back to open the Monday Night Football game vs. the Cowboys. So his box score looks more muted than it easily could have been. Monday night was Collins' first game back from a hamstring injury. He looked good and is the Texans' alpha receiver and main target. He'll likely get more snaps and routes run on Sunday. Collins scored a touchdown in three of his first five games, and now that he's back, I like the plus odds price for him to find the endzone against the Titans.