The Rams managed just two drives over 23 yards in their most recent win before sealing the game late. ...

The Ravens are massive home underdogs due to their QB situation ...

The Texans face a winless Chargers squad that hasn't scored an offensive touchdown since Week 5 ...

Chicago's strong performance against a top defense raises questions about Tampa Bay's ability to slow the Bears’ offense ...

The Broncos have the worst yardage differential of any team to start 6-2 or better in NFL history ...

The Packers' defense has held three straight opponents to 20 points or less, facing Cowboys, Lions and Panthers ...

Buffalo's offense has scored 24+ in every game, while Minnesota has scored six offensive touchdowns since Week 2 ...

The Seahawks offense got back on track against the Chiefs by turning the ball over only once. Now they'll get to face a Bears defense allowing a league-worst 6.3 yards per play. That means we should expect another strong performance from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and it'll be on the Bears offense to keep up, But they'll be on the road against the best defense in the league. The Seahawks lead the league with just 4.4 net yards per pass attempt, giving up no more than 176 net passing yards in a single game. Their rush defense is second in yards per attempt, and NFL leading rusher Kenneth Walker managed just 2.6 yards per carry on Sunday night. This line should be closer to Seahawks -6.

The Eagles remain beset by injuries heading into another primetime matchup, but they held their own against the Cowboys and held a lead late in the third quarter. Ultimately their defense was not able to get enough stops on a dangerous Cowboys offense, but this is a step down in quality of opponent, especially with Terry McLaurin and Jacory Croskey-Merritt sidelined. Washington's one win this year featured just one drive longer than 43 yards but somehow 33 points on the scoreboard, and they have the 31st scoring defense in the league. I don't think these units collectively deserved to be favored by this much against basically anyone, so I'm fading the massive market line move on this game.

The Chiefs just got dominated, while the Broncos offense looked the best it has all year. But that comes down to opposition, as the Chiefs faced the best defense in the league while the Broncos faced one of the worst. When these teams met in Week 1, the Broncos managed just 176 yards of offense and had no answers for Kenneth Walker, who had 191 yards of offense himself. Now Jaylen Waddle is in question for this matchup due to a chest injury, so I don't know how the Broncos move the ball consistently and score points. This is a good buy-low spot for Kansas City and a sell-high spot for Denver, and I'd make this line Chiefs -3.

The Broncos have won five of their last six games, but their offense has rarely looked like a unit capable of getting to the playoffs, thanks largely to the conservative play of Bo Nix. He finally put together a respectable performance against an awful Cardinals defense, but 99 of his 222 yards came on two plays: one a screen pass behind the line of scrimmage, and the other a nice read on a deep pass to Marvin Mims with both defenders understandably crashing the shorter target. Nix had just 131 yards against the Chiefs in Week 1, so he could improve some and still stay under this line, though if Jaylen Waddle is out or limited, improvement may be a lot to ask already.

The Patriots ruled out A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson on Saturday, and that's enough to push me to taking the Dolphins as a home 'dog. Miami has an underrated home-field advantage that has helped the team go 26-16-3 ATS as home 'dogs. The Dolphins have been competitive in many games this year despite a tough pre-bye schedule that saw them face the final three undefeated team in three straight weeks, and their rushing attack in particular has excelled even without De'Von Achane. The Pats are undoubtedly going to put up points, but I'll take the Dolphins to score enough to hang around the entire game in a spot that has been profitable for the franchise.

A.J. Brown has been back in action for two weeks, and he's yet to have a significant impact on Hunter Henry's production. Henry set a season high with 48 yards in Week 6 even with Brown getting 10 targets, then had his best game last week with 71 yards while catching all seven targets, both season-highs. The Dolphins see the fewest targets to receivers in the league by a wide margin, but the same isn't true at tight end, where they give up the second-most receptions per game and the fourth-most yards. I prefer going yardage instead of receptions but think Henry is a good bet to be the featured part of the passing attack in this matchup once again.

The Chargers appear to be healthier coming out of their bye, but not by a wide margin. Joe Alt is set to return, but the rest of the offensive line remains a mess. Ladd McConkey is practicing in full, and Tre Harris could be back as well. But this Chargers offense wasn't any good with those players in the first place. Maybe Mike McDaniel has schemed up some magic elixir for the offense over the bye, but this minor health upgrade doesn't explain the massive difference I have in the ratings of these two teams, which is double-digits (meaning I would make this at least -10 even if you throw out home-field advantage. With a gap like that, I have to be on the Rams.

The Bills come into this one with rest advantage off their bye, but their defense figures to be tested by the return of Lamar Jackson. The Bills have surrendered 29+ points to every team but the winless Chargers, and I struggle to see how they get stops against Jackson and Derrick Henry. The Bills' last three games were decided by three points, and against another contender, I would expect this to be a back-and-forth game where one team wins by three or four points. With the opportunity to get the hook here when the lookahead line was Bills -3, I've got to hop on the Ravens while I can.