The Lions are fresh off a bye and expected to get back David Montgomery ...

This spread is likely well off, but you could argue in either direction ...

Saquon Barkley has been virtually unstoppable for much of this season ...

The Rams surprised many people by dominating the Vikings on Monday ...

It's expected to be cold in Orchard Park, which could in theory limit offense ...

There have been eight home underdogs in the divisional round since 1977 ...

When two heavyweight AFC teams fight, we often expect shootouts ...

The Chiefs have a clean bill of health for their first playoff game, including Jaylen Watson and Chamarri Conner practicing in full. That's going to make life difficult on the one element of the Houston starting receiver corps left standing. Even with Kansas City's secondary injuries, the Chiefs have allowed 83 yards to just four WRs all year (excluding Week 18). Collins was targeted 10 times in the first Chiefs game and only made it to 60 yards, and I'm surprised this number isn't at least in the 70s.

Patrick Mahomes has had a few weeks to rest his ankle after sustaining an injury in Week 15, and even playing through the issue he was able to rush for 33 yards on five carries against the Texans on the Saturday prior to Christmas, where he had one 12-yard carry in an easy win. Like many QBs, his rushing production jumps in the playoffs, but I think it's better to play his attempts Over in case end-game kneeldowns take the yardage under the total. He's had five carries in 10 of 18 career playoff games, so I love getting plus odds here.

Joe Mixon is expected to play in the divisional round despite an ankle injury, but with the risk for reinjury, cold temperatures and his opponent, I doubt he reaches 16 carries. Just two backs have gotten to 16 carries against the Chiefs all year, with neither going further, as Kansas City typically plays from ahead (as they are expected to do in this game). Mixon's 25 carries last week signified his highest total since Dec. 1, and even if his ankle holds up for three hours, the game script should keep him in the 12-15 carry range.

Key starters for the Chiefs haven't played football since Christmas, so there's a chance they come out rusty. But once it was reported that Joe Thuney would start at left tackle, where he's solidified the Chiefs' blind side issues, I wanted to get involved in a Chiefs play without taking the full spread. So I'm going with them to get at least a field goal out of their first drive while holding a Texans offense that didn't score until the last minute of the first half last week off the board in the first quarter.

It's no surprise the 14-3 Vikings are favored in this game, but I'm going to fade them after their abysmal offensive performance in a playoff environment against a beat-up defense. The Rams won the first meeting between these teams by 10, with Matthew Stafford carving up a Minnesota defense that has played a relatively easy schedule and gotten to play from ahead a lot. With the change in venue, I have Vikings -1.5 as my line and think there's solid value backing the Rams, but wait to see if you can get a +3.

Jayden Daniels should be up against a Tampa Bay secondary dealing with a number of injuries, but I still expect his work as a runner to be key to his output. He reached at least 66 yards in three straight games prior to seeing a 45% snap share of Week 18, and with mobile quarterbacks typically seeing an uptick in rushing production in the playoffs, I believe there's a good chance Daniels at least matches his 52.4-yard average here.

Only one of the Packers' six losses has been by more than five points, but this is their toughest spot of the year, on the road against what might be the most complete team in the league. Injuries to Jaire Alexander (among other defenders) and Christian Watson are big on both sides of the ball for the Packers, giving this more of a chance to turn into a dominant win for the Eagles. I think this line should be at least 5.5 and I'd play the Eagles all the way up to -6.5.

Bo Nix has a tough task at hand going on the road to face one of the best teams in the league in his playoff debuts, and I expect to see him use his legs a bunch. In the eight games he failed to reach 25 rushing yards this year, the Broncos won by double digits six times. This doesn't figure to follow that script, and with established QBs running more in the postseason, we should expect Nix to follow that pattern after averaging 25.3 yards per game in the regular season.