The Mariners have been red-hot with eight wins in their last 10, but they're still the only MLB team to strike out more than 10 times per game. Slade Cecconi has just a 6.3 K/9 rate in the majors, which is why this line is so low, but that's based on just 33 innings. He's a 9.2 K/9 rate pitcher in 10 times the innings at the minor-league level, including recording at least five Ks in all four Triple-A starts this year. I like a value play on his Over in the best matchup possible at the MLB level.

Jose Soriano has piled up 19 Ks in 15 IP over three starts, and he gets another high-K team today in the Twins (9.6 per game). But even with that being the case, seven Ks is a lot to ask for. The Twins offense has been running hot with five straight games scoring at least five runs, while Soriano's control has been questionable with eight walks and one HBP in his last two starts. I also don't think we know what his MLB K rate will settle at after pitching as a reliever last year and making just 11 pro starts since 2019 heading into this season. I think he needs to get to six innings to have a reasonable shot at seven Ks.

The Brewers have run very hot in one-run games at 7-1, but they've also lost by more than one run in just seven of their 25 games so far. The Yankees have won by multiple runs nine times in 27 games as they've also been hot in one-run results with a 9-3 record. The Brewers have the better offense (5.36 runs per game and a 115 OPS+ vs. 4.37 runs per game and a 106 OPS+), and Yankees starter Carlos Rodon is due for regression as I don't believe he's pitched to the level of a 2.70 ERA with a 22:13 K:BB ratio. I like a full unit on the run line and half-unit on the money line in this one.

Aaron Civale has seemingly been running hot with a 10.1 K/9 rate that's well above his career mark of 8.2. But it's also significantly down from his post-trade performance with the Rays last year, when he struck out 58 batters in just 45.1 innings. He's hit six Ks in three of five starts this year and gets the awful White Sox offense coming off a rare productive game. The market expects him to get to six innings (-142) and at this point it should count on a strikeout per inning as a Rays pitcher, but it's not.

The market isn't fully buying Mitchell Parker's success in his first two starts, but I don't see why this line is juiced to the Under. He threw 57 of 73 pitches for strikes while blanking the Astros for seven innings and racking up eight Ks in his last outing, and now he gets to face the offense with the worst OPS+ in the league that strikes out about eight times per game. On top of that, Parker has a 11.4 K/9 rate in his minor-league career, so his baseline for Ks should be relatively high. Once he gets more MLB action under his belt, the market will realize this line should've been 5.5 Ks.

The A's took the first game of the series and have a better pitching matchup today, but I think it's a great spot for the Orioles to right the ship. JP Sears has excelled his last three starts thanks largely to allowing just six hits in 17.1 innings but that luck runs out against an offense that's third in runs per game and tied for first in OPS+. Cole Irvin is coming off his best start of the season and gets to face a team that's next to last in runs per game after scoring two or three times in eight straight. This feels like 5-6 runs for the O's and another 2-3 runs for the A's, reflective of their season averages.

Gunnar Henderson has been swinging a hot bat of late with six multihit games in his last eight and five extra-base hits in that stretch. He also homered against Tuesday starter Griffin Canning as part of a 2-for-3 day at the end of March and tripled against Canning as part of another 2-for-3 day in the only meeting between the two last year. Canning hasn't been much better against the rest of MLB this year with a 8.05 ERA and 11 extra-base hits allowed in four starts, and lefties have 1.096 OPS against the Angels starter this year. I expect another big game from Henderson in this one.

Michael King is coming off a gem in Milwaukee where he struck out 10 batters in seven innings to push his K/9 rate near 10, which is about where it sits for the Rockies offense as a whole. King also had three starts with at least eight Ks in his last five starts with the Yankees last year after getting stretched out. In theory Coors Field is dangerous for opposing pitchers, but the Rockies have scored just five runs in four games since returning from their most recent road trip. Even with heavy juice, I like playing King to reach the six-K threshold in this matchup.

Logan Gilbert has enjoyed an excellent start to the season, allowing only one earned run in three of his four starts while posting a 29:4 K:BB ratio on the year. He's had success against the Rangers in his career, including holding them to two earned runs in each of his three starts facing them last year. Even though the Rangers have a good offense, the player with the most success against Gilbert in his career is Corey Seager, who has not gotten out to a good start so far. I think the juice on this line should be on the Under, not the Over.

The Braves have won seven of their last eight games, six by multiple runs, and they've won three of their four games against the Marlins this year by at least two runs. This is a good spot for Max Fried to find success after an uneven start to the year, as he has pitched well in recent years against this team. The Marlins have played 24 games and lost 15 by multiple runs (including all four Trevor Rogers starts despite his solid 3.92 ERA), so it's reasonable to expect the same on the road against one of the best teams in MLB.

The A's are second to last in runs scored per game ahead of only the awful White Sox offense, and they have been much worse against righties than lefties this year, posting a .600 OPS. That's good news for righty Marcus Stroman, who started his year by allowing no earned runs in two straight starts while throwing six innings in each game. I expect him to get through six against today against this offense and would also consider a sprinkle on him allowing Under 1.5 earned runs at plus odds.

The White Sox offense has been abysmal this season, ranking last in MLB with 2.14 runs per game and a 61 OPS+ as a team. But the Twins aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard either, ranking bottom three in both offensive categories as well. And on the mound for Minnesota today: Chris Paddack, who has struggled majorly in his three starts this year, including surrendering nine earned runs in his last outing. Jonathan Cannon acquitted himself better than expected in his debut for the White Sox last week, and we should get the win on the run line with another solid performance from him.

Kerry Carpenter is swinging a hot bat with five extra base hits in his last five games, and while he's started 10 straight after being in and out of the lineup to begin the year, he's also staying in the game more, playing the entire way in six of the last seven after doing so in just four of his first 14 games. He could make a quick impact on Sunday against a pitcher in Louie Varland who has struggled to keep the ball in the park with five homers allowed in 14 innings this year after surrendering 16 in just 68 innings last year.

Seth Lugo has allowed just three runs in four starts this year, but he's also been very fortunate in who he's faced; the White Sox have been the worst team in the league and he's got them twice, the Astros have struggled all year and the Twins are well below average in scoring. Baltimore is third in runs per game and just destroyed a much better pitcher in Cole Ragans and they've scored at least four runs in 16 of their 20 games. Lugo is also one of 10 qualified pitchers to strike out less than 13% of batters despite his gaudy ERA. I think the Orioles score more on him today than he's allowed in his four previous starts combined.

Frankie Montas lasted just two innings in his most recent start, but even though he had pitched relatively well to that point, he hasn't been generating a lot of strikeouts. Montas hasn't gotten to six Ks in any of his four starts this year, and his K% and Whiff% have been below average, per Statcast. After a lost 2023, it's possible this is who he is and he doesn't return to striking out a batter per inning this season. Even though the Angels strike out more often than the average team, I think Montas' line should be 4.5 instead of 5.5.