ANALYSIS: The Bucs were able to turn three turnovers into short-field TDs in their upset of the Saints last week ... Join SportsLine here to see the full pick!

ANALYSIS: The Bucs offense has been hard to stop since the team's bye, but this might be their toughest test yet. The Saints haven't surrendered even 275 net passing yards to any team this year despite already playing the Bucs twice plus the Packers and Chiefs. They should make things tough for Tom Brady all day, and the Bucs don't have the rushing attack to lean on when needed. The Saints should be able to have success offensively against a Bucs defense that had trouble containing Taylor Heinicke last week, especially with Michael Thomas back on the field. This is a close matchup, as you'd expect with the line where it is, but the Saints defense makes the difference.

ANALYSIS: The Chiefs are virtually everyone's pick for the best team in football, but they haven't really lived up to that status in the second half, failing to win by seven points or more in every game since Week 8, a string almost fully consisting of ATS losses. Their defense is vulnerable to good rushing offenses, and with Baker Mayfield only throwing one pick since Week 7, the Browns should be able to hang around in a high-scoring game. And when they take it to the red zone, where they're third in success rate, they should come away with TDs against the worst red-zone defense in the league. This line feels three points too high.

ANALYSIS: The Rams may very well have the best defense in the league coming into this matchup, but the Packers offense has been nearly impossible to stop all year, ranking first in several key categories like yards per drive, red-zone success rate, percentage of drives ending in a score, turnover rate, and so on. I've also been impressed by their defense, which shut down a great Tennessee offense in Week 16 before doing the same to a hot Bears offense to earn the No. 1 seed. Coming to Lambeau in January and competing would be hard at full health, but with the Rams' injury issues at QB and with star defender Aaron Donald, I don't think they manage to cover here.

ANALYSIS: Hope you were able to hop on this one early. Even with the move I'd still lay it up to -7. The Browns are in an awful spot, coming off a week of limited practice and facing another one in the biggest game of the year where they know they won't have their excellent head coach on the sideline. On the other side, the Steelers were finally able to rest some key players, and the offense they did run on the field put up its best yardage total since Week 2 despite starting a backup QB. That makes me think they've carried over some of the offensive success from the second half of the Colts game and can build up an insurmountable lead here.