R.J. White

Stat Geek

In 2017 R.J. cashed big in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, tying for 18th out of 2,748 contestants with a 52-29-4 mark against the spread. Remarkably, he also cashed in 2015 when he tied for 39th out of 1,727 entries with a 51-32-2 record. R.J. also crushes the NFL for SportsLine members: He went 94-68-8 on ATS picks last season, returning $1,856 to $100 players. R.J. has been with CBS Sports for seven years as a writer and editor and previously contributed to FanHouse, FanDuel, Razzball and the Fantasy Cafe. R.J. has many years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, beginning with Super Bowl XXV. For R.J. White media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

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R.J.'s
Past Picks
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New England -200NE -200

Philadelphia 41 vs New England 33
2/04
PHI 41 vs NE 33
2/04
LOSS
Fri 2/2

The moneyline is my preferred play in the Super Bowl, and you should be able to get it at least Patriots -180 in Vegas or online. In fact, -175 is pretty easy to find as of Friday. That type of moneyline is more indicative of a game with a 3.5-point spread, so the heavy amount of money on the Eagles moneyline is boosting your value by taking the Patriots. And while I'm a little worried this will be another close Patriots Super Bowl, I'm definitely giving them better than a 67 percent chance of winning the game, so I'll take the -200 on our site even if you can find better odds by shopping around.

UNDER 24 1ST HALFUNDER 24 1ST HALF

Philadelphia 22 vs New England 12
2/04
PHI 22 vs NE 12
2/04
LOSS
Fri 2/2

I'm looking to play any Under bets for the first quarter or first half. The Patriots tend to pace themselves in Super Bowls before exploding in the second half. In fact, they haven't scored a point in the first quarter in any of their seven Brady-Belichick title games. Only one of those beat a first-half total of 24 as well, and two others matched 24 -- all three games had 0-0 first quarters. Bang the Under in the first quarter, and play the first-half Under as well, and count on both offenses to start slowly.

UNDER 48.5UNDER 48.5

Philadelphia 41 vs New England 33
2/04
PHI 41 vs NE 33
2/04
LOSS
Fri 2/2

Now that the total has inched up to 48.5, I'm going to come in on the Under. In order for the game to reach the 50s, it feels like we're going to need both Nick Foles to play well (for the Eagles to hold up their end of the bargain) and the Eagles defense to fall apart (for the Patriots to start fast and turn it into a track meet). Banking on both to happen is putting money on what I think is a low probability play without getting the odds for a low probability play. The three previous Eagles games before the NFC championship had totals under 30. I'll play that trend.

New England -4.5NE -4.5

Philadelphia 41 vs New England 33
2/04
PHI 41 vs NE 33
2/04
LOSS
Fri 2/2

Patriots Super Bowls tend to be close, as they're typically three or four points either way. Despite that, I'm taking them to cover in Super Bowl LII against the Eagles. Philly has been rolling at home, but playing a Super Bowl is a different beast, one the Pats know well. And I just can't count on Nick Foles carving up the Patriots on the biggest stage of his life. My preferred play is a Pats moneyline parlay with the Under, but if you have to play the point spread, I'm going to lay it. Patriots 27, Eagles 17.

New England -9.5NE -9.5

Jacksonville 20 @ New England 24
1/21
JAC 20 @ NE 24
1/21
LOSS
Mon 1/15

There's a chance this line could edge down a bit, so I'd wait to put my bet in to get the best value, but I love the Patriots here. The Jaguars defense has now given up 42 points to Pittsburgh and 44 to the 49ers in two of its last three road games, and you can't expect Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville defense to have anywhere near the same level of success this week against a Bill Belichick-coached team. Expect the Patriots to protect the ball and while keeping Tom Brady in third-and-short situations to keep the pass rush on its heels. The Jaguars have to play from ahead to have any shot; good luck doing that in this matchup.

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