R.J.'s Picks (10 Live)
The Cowboys suffered a tough loss Monday after botching the recovery of a blocked punt ...
The Chargers fell short after an impressive second-half rally against the Chiefs ...
The Cardinals have lost three straight after surprisingly leading the division at midseason ...
Desmond Ridder is set to face his former team on Monday night ...
R.J.'s Past Picks
The Rams defense struggled to slow down the Bills on Sunday, including giving up two completions over this number. That was the first time they gave up any receptions of 38+ yards since Week 6, and they'll face a less dangerous passer in Purdy this week. He delivered a 39-yard completion last week, the first time the 49ers have been over this number since Week 10, so as long as the Rams defenders tackle well I think it'll be hard for Purdy to hit this Over.
The Rams are flying high after beating the Bills in a shootout, and I like their chances of winning this game as well. They beat San Francisco earlier in the season without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and now with both back and Matthew Stafford dealing the offense looks tough to stop. The Rams defense didn't play well against the Bills at all, but San Francisco continues to deal with key injuries on both sides of the ball that have a clear affect on the upside of the team. Right now I have the two teams rated identically in terms of the spread and don't give the 49ers three points for home field, so I like the value on the 'dog.
The 49ers are getting back Nick Bosa for this game and Dre Greenlaw for the first time this season, and mixed in with potential rainy weather and a divisional rematch angle this is setting up to be an Under game. Both teams had offensive explosions last week but play more familiar defenses here, and with this essentially being an elimination game as one of these teams tries to walk down the Seahawks, I expect this to be more of a chess match than a wide-open affair.
The Cowboys have one of the best weapons in football, and I'm not talking about CeeDee Lamb. Aubrey is 20 of 21 from 50-plus yards in his two seasons with Dallas, and he has a 65-yarder on his ledger this year. He's attempted less than two FGs only once this season as Mike McCarthy has full confidence in his kicker. Only five of the 12 kickers to face Cincy have attempted less than two FGs, and four of those teams scored three-plus TDs. Both the Cowboys offense and Bengals defense are awful in the red zone, but even if Dallas wins that matchup I like Aubrey to hit this Over.
There's expected to be a lot of offense in this game, and I believe the best way to attack it is with the Cowboys team total Over. The only two times Bengals opponents haven't scored 24 points since Week 1 came against inept Giants and Browns offenses in consecutive weeks. The Cowboys haven't been that bad with Cooper Rush, though recent point totals have been inflated due to DST touchdowns. That said, Rush also had three drives of 50-plus yards against Houston that ended in no points, so this looks like a unit with a 20-point baseline facing one of the league's worst defenses, which should help Dallas get to at least 24 even if the defense or special teams doesn't score.