Dylan Covey has been a pleasant surprise for the White Sox, but his two weakest starts since returning to Chicago have come against the division-leading Indians. Now Cleveland hitters will see Covey for the third time in three weeks. Meanwhile, Trevor Bauer gets the start for Cleveland, and he's dominated the White Sox in his career, holding current White Sox hitters to a .576 OPS and .231 wOBA.
5-2 IN LAST 7 MLB O/U PICKS | +287
The Phillies come back from a successful three-game road trip at Milwaukee, taking two-of-three, and have now won five of their last seven following a four game losing streak. The Phillies have been great at home all season (22-12), but Nick Pivetta has been on a downward cycle and they've lost his past four starts. Cardinals pick up the win.
26-18-1 IN LAST 45 MLB O/U PICKS | +631
3-1 IN LAST 4 PHILADELPHIA ML PICKS | +205
Washington's Erick Fedde had a 4.76 ERA in 11 minor-league starts and gave up four runs over five innings in one of his two MLB starts, against these Yankees. He's been susceptible to home runs, and now the Yankees have seen him. Sonny Gray's not lighting the world on fire, but if he can hold the Nats to two runs over five innings, New York's superior lineup and bullpen should be able to do the rest.
82-41 IN LAST 123 MLB ML PICKS | +3354
12-3 IN LAST 15 N.Y. YANKEES ML PICKS | +900
The Rangers have won 14 of the past 17 meetings, and I like them to continue that trend Monday. Look for a bounceback from Bartolo Colon, who has alternated terrible outings with solid ones. K.C. has lost Ian Kennedy's last seven starts. Take Texas at even money.
51-36 IN LAST 87 MLB ML PICKS | +1020
11-5 IN LAST 16 TEXAS ML PICKS | +506
White Sox starter James Shields has a fly-ball rate of 44.5% this season, which is in line with the 43.5% rate he posted in 2017. The difference is that last year Shields had a HR/FB rate of 17.4%. This year that number is down to 8.2%. The ball flies at Guaranteed Rate Field in the summer months, and with temperatures in the low 90s and a strong wind blowing toward left field, today is likely the day Shields' home run luck runs out.
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