Regression Alert! Yankees are leading the league by nearly five percent in Overs percentage. They happen to be facing the Twins, who have cashed their Over five games in a row. Home-plate umpire D.J. Reyburn?s generous strike zone will play a large role in keeping this total below the double-digit mark. Fading the public and taking the Under Thursday afternoon is the tough, but smart play.
16-5 IN LAST 21 MLB PICKS | +1209
My projections not only see the Yankees beating the Twins on thursday in more than 75 percent of simulations, but I've got New York winning by an average of two full runs. This data is enough to justify laying the thick price on the favorite. The Twins have lost four straight starts by Kyle Gibson against the Yankees.
3-0 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS | +300
The Indians historically are a phenomenal bounce-back team after a loss. Last year, they were among the league leaders in this category and, after getting blown out Tuesday, I look for manager Terry Francona to continue this trend. Lance Barksdale is umping this contest, and he has a 250-164 money-line record on home teams. This is reasonable price with Trevor Bauer (2.67 ERA) on the mound for the Indians. He has given up a modest five runs in his past three starts against the Cubs.
The Thunder are fortunate they dodged a suspension for Russell Westbrook following his altercation with Jazz center Rudy Gobert late in Game 4. The Jazz have taken control of the series with three straight dominant performances. Oklahoma City played a solid first half in Game 4, but wilted amid Utah's physicality and execution on the second half. Even so, I expect an inspired Westbrook and friends to play their best game of the series Wednesday and find a way to send it back to Utah.
8-1 IN LAST 9 NBA PICKS | +699
One thing the Cavaliers haven't yet proved is that they are capable of creating separation against the Pacers. Cleveland's two wins are by seven points combined and it was fortunate to escape Indiana with a 104-100 victory in Game 4. The Pacers had a chance to win despite shooting 43 percent and facing another double-figure halftime deficit. Kyle Korver helped the Cavaliers with some huge 3s down the stretch, but finding a consistent second source of production to augment LeBron James remains an issue. The value is still on the underdog Wednesday even with an adjusted number.
In partnership with...