After one start for Baltimore's Alex Cobb we can tell he is not even close to game shape. Cobb also carries an ERA of more than two runs worse on the road than at home. He never really had the kind of stuff that missed bats and in his only start this year he didn't record any strikeout in 3 2/3 innings. Jordan Zimmermann has an xFIP ERA over 5.00 for the last two years. So far both teams' offensive numbers are below average, but Baltimore is averaging 1.6 more runs per game away and have gone over in six of 11 away. Detroit averages 1.6 more runs per game at home. Baltimore has an above-average offense and the numbers will prove that.
4-1 IN LAST 5 MLB PICKS | +347
Jon Lester is still Mr. Steady. You know exactly what your going to get when he takes the hill. Lester is 40 cents better than the average pitcher at home. His xFIP ERA over the last three years is just over 3.00. The 24-year old Cardinals righty Luke Weaver looks like he is going to have a great career. But with just 21 starts under his belt, he is still learning on the go and picking up valuable experience. I have Weaver rated 20 cents better than the average pitcher on the road. The Cubs' offense ranks fifth in the league, averaging six runs per game, while St Louis ranks 26th with an average of just three runs per game.
Kent Maeda couldn't get to the fourth inning in his last start, but it was on nearly two weeks between starts thanks to the lovely spring weather much of the nation has experienced. He should hold his own against a Padres offense that has hit .215 against RHPs, fourth-worst in the majors. The Dodgers' offense hasn't come alive yet, but its lineup has a career average of .337 against Luis Perdomo. Tonight isn't likely the night for Perdomo -- who has a 4.91 ERA and troubling 2.09 WHIP -- to get out of his slump. Take the Dodgers.
20-12 IN LAST 32 MLB PICKS | +605
Houston barely won Game 1 after Chris Paul made a critical mistake late in the game with an ugly turnover. Things will be different tonight. The Wolves don't have an answer for James Harden, and as soon as Chris Paul plays better, this game will be a blowout. I'm laying the large number.
79-58-3 IN LAST 140 NBA PICKS | +1762
This Jazz team has flown under the radar all season. Finishing off the regular season winning 29 of their last 35 games, I have now bought into Utah. It's a well-coached, gritty team peaking at the perfect time. Sure the Thunder have three veteran superstars, but just as the Spurs have proven these past two decades, a well-balanced scoring team with a top-tier defense is the recipe for success in the playoffs. Look for Quin Snyder to make appropriate adjustments to have the Jazz in position to steal a game on the road tonight.
5-1 IN LAST 6 NBA O/U PICKS | +398
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