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6 Expert Picks
Elche looks for payback. ...
Mönchengladbach could be without its best player. ...
James Harden continues to contribute in this category. …
Chelsea are on a six-game losing streak. ...
Under 2.5 goals has paid off in 63% of Lecce's games this season. ...
Bayern thrashed Wolfsburg 8-1 a few months ago. ...
Well, it's happening homies. The underdogs are winning. That'd be just fine here. I want a late-night play. Something about rewatching the Met Gala the missus mentioned just shot me straight to the "gotta work" card. Gosh I love my job. Just gets me out of everything a la Larry David. I frankly don't get why the Giants are (slight) home dogs with Robbie Ray opposed by the "Big Ragu" Carmen Mlodzinski. But I'll take it even at this number. Gifts are gifts.
The last time the Pirates were in San Francisco, they swept the Giants three straight, and they come in today winning five of their last six games. The Giants have won once in their last nine games, in which they've averaged only two runs per game. In the Giants last 12 games, they've hit only nine home runs, second to last to the Rangers seven homers. The Giants have lost three of Robbie Ray's last four starts where they scored only one combined run in the three losses. Pirates to win.
Caesar’s / MGM. This is a high outs line for Emmet Sheehan, who has only finished six innings in four of his six starts. Sheehan does have a whiff-inducing arsenal, which leads to higher pitch counts: 4.04 pitches per plate appearance is 26th highest amongst 136 qualifiers. And he has been hit relatively hard, with a 5.23 ERA (4.32 xERA), 41% hard hit rate, .259 xBA. He’ll face the Braves who’ve been one of the top hitting teams all season against righties: .791 OPS, 119 wRC+, .348 wOBA. I’d bet this down to under 16.5 outs for a full unit.
Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves will aim to go 4 and 0 in the playoffs at home this year. For Edwards this is closer to his original timeline of return, as he was expected to comeback in game three or four. Don’t be surprised if he looks closer to 100 percent tonight, and has a bump in minutes played. Edwards has averaged 15 points in his limited role. Expect a showcase game from Edwards as he clears his adjusted points prop.
With Minnesota big man Rudy Gobert guarding Spurs C Victory Wembanyama up top, the floor has opened for Julius Randle to get more boards. In game 1, he flew over his total with 10 rebounds, matching Gobert. In game 2, he had 5 rebounds in just 27 minutes of action due to the blowout. There should also be more boards to go around, unless the Spurs hit 50% of their shots again. Randle had 7+ rebounds in four of the six games in the first round vs. Denver.
Rudy Gobert isn’t out there to score for the Timberwolves. In three games vs. Victor Wembanyama this season, Gobert has tallied 2, 7 and 5 points. He’s grabbed 10 rebounds in each playoff game. The Wolves have had injury issues, but Gobert isn’t the one who’s stepping up offensively.
FanDuel. Of the Spurs three primary offensive options, De’Aaron Fox might have drawn the short straw in this matchup against the Timberwolves, with Jaden McDaniels checking the Spurs point guard. Fox has failed to put up even 20 combined points, rebounds and assists in either game this series (albeit with no fourth quarter minutes in Game 2). I’m expecting a stronger defensive effort from the Timberwolves tonight, and for Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle to lead the charge. Playable down to under 26.5.
The Timberwolves continue to battle injuries. Anthony Edwards (knee) has come off the bench and been limited to 25 minutes or fewer in both games against the Spurs. That restriction is unlikely to change Friday. Ayo Dosunmu is now battling both calf and heel injuries and is questionable to play. Terrence Shannon Jr. is playing more because of injuries, even starting each of the last three games. Dating back to the regular season, Shannon has scored at least 10 points in eight straight games in which he has logged at least 14 minutes. In six of those games, he scored at least 16 points. With the expectation that he plays around 25 minutes in Game 3, Shannon has a great opportunity to hit this over.
Naz Reid has cleared this prop total in seven straight games; he grabbed seven boards in Game 2 despite playing just 21 minutes in a major blowout. With Minnesota playing just three bigs -- Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Reid -- I like Reid to continue his rebounding pace. I would also go Over 6.5 at plus money.














