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NFL | Cincinnati 20 @ Kansas City 23 | 01/29 | 11:30 PM UTC

Travis Kelce UNDER 76.5 Total Receiving Yards -145

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Apparently Kelce's back is legitimately an issue and he was a game-time call -- but of course will play. Surely the Bengals players know about that injury, though, and I'm not saying they will target Kelce's back ... uh yeah they will. So, I have to lean under here on the chance Kelce leaves injured or truly is limited.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+695 22-10 IN LAST 32 NFL PICKS

NFL | Cincinnati 20 @ Kansas City 23 | 01/29 | 11:30 PM UTC

Kansas City -1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: There’s been no stauncher backer of the Bengals down the stretch than your’s truly, but even I am shocked that the contrarian play in the AFC Championship Game is the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. There seems to be an inherent bias against Kansas City with Tyreek Hill no longer on the roster, and while the offense may be less explosive, it’s actually more efficient. Mahomes with no rest, rehabilitation or even a brace gutted out a win, and now he’s had all the aforementioned items to aid his recovery. As noted last week, Cincinnati over Buffalo was a total no-brainer, but it does not change Cincy's recent close games against teams with far worse offenses like Baltimore and New England. With Travis Kelce playing, I'm willing to buck the trendy play and lay the short number with KC.

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Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
+700 17-9-1 IN LAST 27 NFL PICKS
+600 6-0-1 IN LAST 7 CIN ATS PICKS

NFL | Cincinnati 20 @ Kansas City 23 | 01/29 | 11:30 PM UTC

UNDER 47.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: The three Burrow-Mahomes matchups have averaged 55 points. So why an Under? Patrick Mahomes must endure a bum ankle that could be especially uncomfortable when the temperatures dip into the teens. Two key targets, TE Travis Kielce and WR Mecole Hartman, also are ailing to a lesser extent. The Bengals yielded the fifth fewest points in the regular season. On Cincinnati's side, the O-line is missing three regulars, though it did shine last week when short-handed. Kansas City went 2-7 Under at home, similar to the Bengals' 6-3 Under record on the road.

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Mike Tierney

Top Dog
+1265 56-39-4 IN LAST 99 NFL PICKS
+228 11-8-1 IN LAST 20 CIN O/U PICKS
+406 16-11-2 IN LAST 29 KC O/U PICKS

NHL | Washington 1 @ Toronto 5 | 01/29 | 10:00 PM UTC

Toronto -140

WIN

ANALYSIS: This is somewhat of a chase from the crushing Bruins loss to Florida yesterday. Unbelievable. Yes, Auston Matthews is out but the Caps are without the likes of Nic Dowd and Tom Wilson so I'll roll the dice here on the Leafs as we won't get them at home so cheaply very often (also slight lean on under 6). Ilya Samsonov has been brilliant at home other than when he burned us Friday -- he wasn't originally to start so maybe that threw off his preparation. Samsonov has the added motivation of facing his former Caps team. Washington comes off a Thursday home win over Pittsburgh but is 0-6 in is past six after a win.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+697 30-13 IN LAST 43 NHL ML PICKS
+457 18-9 IN LAST 27 TOR ML PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 WAS ML PICKS
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