ANALYSIS: I wanted to share the four plays I think have the most value after the schedule release ...

ANALYSIS: Domingo German didn't look sharp in his first start back from his suspension, which stemmed from a violation of the foreign substance rule. Whether that was the layoff, or traces back to why he was suspended, it's impossible to say. Either way, German has now walked 12 in just 23.1 innings on the road. The Dodgers lead MLB with 4.25 walks drawn per game. Their lineup is loaded, while the Yankees aren't starting Aaron Judge. Back the Dodgers, behind impressive rookie Bobby Miller, to cover the run line at plus money.

ANALYSIS: We're back for Game 2 and going right back to Nikola Jokic over 1.5 threes, this time priced at +159. Yes we missed by one in Game One but it's been up and down throughout the playoffs. Jokic hit this in 3 of 4 in the Lakers series, 3 of 6 against Phoenix and 3 of 5 vs. Minnesota. I'm just going to trust the process and keep it going. Miami should look to force points early tonight, even though they have been worth their weight in gold with postseason comebacks...this isn't the team to mess around with. Denver still hasn't even lost a home game in the 2023 Playoffs. Let it rip Jokic, we only need two!

ANALYSIS: Miami’s perimeter defenders are largely small, slow or both. (Think Duncan Robinson, Max Stroos and Kyle Lowery). Accordingly, they don’t switch off screens well and big 3-point shooters get good looks. This is a perfect spot for Porter to go Over 15.5 points. He had 14 in a Game 1 blowout that featured a disinterested Denver scoring just 20 points in the 4th quarter and Porter shooting just 2/11 from 3. Unless the Nuggets get another blowout where Porter is under 20% from 3-point land, he should easily eclipse this number.

ANALYSIS: Game 1 was the embodiment of the Denver Nuggets this season: They start fast at home. I love that the public will be skewed by a final score that wasn’t nearly as close as the actual game. Denver scored 59 points in the first half and Miami showed you they will have a first half altitude drought. Why worry about the back door cover? Take Denver in the first half.

ANALYSIS: I had planned to take the Yankees runline but Aaron Judge has been ruled out so forget that. Now we have to lean the home side behind electric rookie Bobby Miller. All their key guys are in the lineup. New York's Domingo German has a 5.01 road ERA. This ML rose about 30 cents post-Judge news.

ANALYSIS: Denver had a clear run away game one victory over the Miami Heat. The decisive victory and the Nuggets unblemished playoff record at home will be tough for the Heat. Yet, Miami did have open shots in game one but looked tired and out of rhythm from their seven game series against the Celtics. They will regroup and at the very least make it a competitive game to cover the spread. Take Miami.

ANALYSIS: Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Tyler Wells has the best WHIP in MLB at .83. While he has surrendered just forty hits on the season, those hits have resulted in twenty three runs. In fact, he is tied for seventh amongst pitchers for home runs allowed. In what will likely be a low scoring game tail the Giants at home.

ANALYSIS: Alex Cobb made the Orioles look foolish Saturday, but I like them to bounce back as they are typically very strong following a loss. They're also 19-10 on the road this season. Baltimore starter Tyler Wells has a 0.83 WHIP to go with his 3.29 ERA. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has been vulnerable over his last five starts, allowing 17 runs in 29.1 innings, and he's given up three homers in his last two starts.

ANALYSIS: Michael Porter has accepted his role this postseason. While he can be an elite shooter, he’s been putting in work on the boards. Porter has recorded a double-double in four of his last five games. The forward is seeing the second-most rebound chances for Denver behind Nikola Jokic. The Heat do not have an answer for Porter’s presence on the glass. While he may not collect 13 boards like he did in Game 1, he is more than capable of putting up 10. If you like his Over 8.5 rebounds, shoot for one more and take the value with the double-double.

ANALYSIS: The Nuggets had their way with Miami in Game 1 and actually didn't shoot the ball very well. Miami finished a seven game series versus Boston, traveled directly to Denver and looked every bit of a tired team. I'm not sure the extra day will make a difference because of the altitude. Denver has been dominating at home with a 43-7 straight up record and 31-19 ATS record. Nikola Jokic is the best player on the planet with two amazing All-Stars in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Aaron Gordon's defense on Jimmy Butler is also a major game changer. I'm playing the Nuggets-3 in the first quarter, -4.5 for the first half and -8.5 for the game.

ANALYSIS: We need a win on this series today to profit as we have split so far -- the Mets are looking to avoid the sweep but we at least cashed on their +1.5 on Saturday. I'd imagine today's pitching matchup has happened previously at least once in Japan between the Jays' Yusei Kikuchi, who is 31 and been in the majors a few years, and New York's Kodai Senga, a 30-year-old NL Rookie of the Year candidate. Senga is 3-1 with a 1.20 ERA at home and that's the difference for me. No Kevin Kiermaier or Alejandro Kirk for the Jays.

ANALYSIS: Zac Gallen is one of the 10 best pitchers in Major League Baseball. Gallen strikes out 10 per 9 innings, has a career low two walks per 9, and just a 4% barrel rate in 2023. Mike Soroka makes his second start after missing the previous 2+ years. Soroka had shoulder issues, then torn his Achilles tendon but then re-tore his Achilles last year. He's back, but it will take some time to be the dominant guy he was in 2019. Arizona's offense ranks ninth versus righties, while Atlanta ranks 14th.

ANALYSIS: Seattle rookie pitcher Bryce Miller had been fantastic until the Yankees blew him up last time out. Fluke or foreshadowing? Maybe a bit of both simply as he had been TOO good. M's shortstop JP Crawford is out of the lineup today. In his past six starts, the Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi is 5-0 with a 0.7 ERA. He's just the second pitcher in team history to allow as little as 4 R in so many innings over a 6-start span. The Rangers have won each of the first two in the series by multiple runs.