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Angelo MaglioccaAmagsSat at 2:00 PM23Extra Innings: Saturday MLB Betting
15 Expert Picks
Will the Dodgers be swept at home? ...
Boston has gone 25-5 since June 25...
Kyle Schwarber has not had a hit in the Phillies current series against the Orioles. ..
Texas is slumping and Houston rolling. ...
Gavin Williams has four straight double-digit strikeout games...
Will the Marlins keep up its hot play on Sunday afternoon?
Kyle Bradish’s .187 batting average against at home should play against the Phillies in this player prop market. …
Keider Montero was hit hard last time out. ...
Zack Wheeler is on a mission. …
George Kirby has allowed his opponents to clear this line in 90% of his starts. …
Emmet Sheehan is under this player prop line in 14/19 starts this season. …
Chase Burns has stayed under this line in six of his last eight starts. …
How will Mitch Keller fare vs. the Reds? ...
Is this Matt Rhule's most talented team at Nebraska?...
Here. We. Go!
A’s starter Jack Perkins was 0-3 with a 7.79 ERA in July, which was only a little worse than his 6.65 ERA in June – and slightly better than the 7.98 posted in May. The bullpen behind him has a 6.96 ERA this week. Detroit’s offense is hitting RHPs to a .912 OPS over the last two-plus weeks. So Detroit, which has scored 13, 9 and 14 runs the last three games, should score some here as well. Framber Valdez has allowed 0-2 runs in four of his last seven starts, and 4-6 in the other three. Expect the better version vs. a lineup with a subpar OPS vs. southpaws the last month.
The Angels scratched Jose Soriano because their team's fire sale will continue in the coming days. Look for Milwaukee to take advantage on the road in a bullpen game for their opponents. The Brewers have won 6 of Robert Gasser's last 7 starts and should overmatch their opponents, some of whom are dreaming for greener pastures come the trade deadline on Monday.
Caesar’s. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is under this line in 15/19 starts this season. The righty remains one of baseball’s best with a .190 average against and a .226 expected average against. He’s also been able to keep the ball on the ground 48% of the time (77th percentile). The Red Sox, despite their recent success, have not been crushing the ball, only hitting .231 against righties out of the break. And against ground ball pitchers, the Sox are only at .221 this season as a team.
I don't have many life "mantras," but the Dodgers not losing back-to-back home games might be one. Great win by Boston on Friday night, no doubt. Little bit different going from facing L.A.'s Cole Irvin, who sells Skechers in the offseason and was Friday's primary pitcher (wish I had known that as it wasn't supposed to be him), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who goes Saturday. Double-Y is definitely not in the Al Bundy shoe-selling category. Likely that Sox All-Star Willson Contreras sits after taking a pitch to the head last night.
DraftKings. Tyler Mahle is another guy who could be making his final start for his current team. The trade candidate has been objectively awful on the road this season with an 8.05 ERA, and staying under this line in 7/8 starts. The Giants bullpen is rested, and it serves them zero purpose to leave Mahle on the mound if he struggles. Plus, the Padres offense is on fire, with a .942 OPS out of the break against righties.
You got a ride a hot team, and there's no hotter team than the Houston Astros, who have won nine of their last 10 games and are now in first place at 56-55. The Astros were once 11 games under .500 on May 20th. The Rangers have lost three games in a row to fall right at .500 and a half game out of first. Jacob deGrom goes for the Rangers, but they've lost his last two games. Ronel Blanco goes for the Astros, and he's allowed nine runs in his two starts this year. But this is an Astros squad finding new ways to win each night, and they'll survive poor pitching from Blanco. The bonus is if Blanco pitches well. Astros to win.
I’m going to continue to fade Cristopher Sanchez when given 18.5 outs considering his current form. Sanchez has an ERA over 6.0 in the month of July, in addition to struggling away from Citizens Bank Park this season. He’s facing a Baltimore lineup that has been above average against opposing southpaw pitchers as well.
Reds LHP Andrew Abbott has delivered back-to-back quality starts, allowing 0 and 2 ER in six-inning games. His ERA since the start of May is a scant 2.95. The Cincy bullpen owns a sub-2 ERA the last week-plus. Meanwhile, Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft is 3-1 in his last five starts, but with a 7.71 ERA. Over Pittsburgh’s last nine games, the team has scored 7+ runs three times and 0-2 runs the other six.
Caesar’s. Since the beginnings of April, Logan Gilbert has pitched to a 3.13 ERA while clearing this line in 13/19 outings, including nine of his last 12 starts. He’ll face a Twins lineup that’s cooled off offensively out of the break, with just a .659 OPS against righties.
Marlins RHP Tyler Phillips posted a 5.30 ERA in five July starts and didn’t go over five inning in any of them. He’s backed by a bullpen with a 6.04 ERA the last week. The Mets’ bullpen ERA in that span is 0.74 and rookie Zac Thornton has allowed four earned runs over his last four starts, all going 6-7 frames. Miami has had issues hitting off LHPs lately. New York should have more opportunities to tally runs here at home.
Actually thought about driving up to see this game but just too dang lazy. Well, I might have if the Rays played somewhere fun like Wrigleyville or the Battery in Atlanta and not in an abandoned Men's Wearhouse in sleepy St. Pete. Drew Rasmussen comes off his best start of the season for Tampa Bay, while Sox rookie Noah Schultz (he will follow an opener -- a position the Rays essentially invented) has a 7.03 road ERA. The Rays kill lefties like him at 22-10.
Seattle wrecked Friday's parlay of the day -- blowing a late 2-1 lead, so that hurt -- but I feel pretty good coming back to the Mariners with Logan Gilbert (8-3, 3.44 ERA) on Saturday. The one good thing from that Minnesota rally was the Twins using all their high leverage relievers. And Saturday starter Connor Prielipp is 0-3 with a 6.56 ERA away.
Kevin Gausman may be on some kind of pitch count today being that there are trade rumors surrounding him and regardless, this isn't an easy strikeout matchup for any righty. We did see Dylan Cease strike out seven yesterday but he still stayed under his 7.5 line and that's with elite stuff and a fastball that's got nearly double the whiff rate of Gausman. If he's not pulled early and gets a normal workload, I have him projecting just under five strikeouts anyways vs. a bottom-five strikeout opponent in STL.
I'm going to back a rookie pitcher making his Major League debut on the road over a hardened veteran. Maybe I'm crazy but it's worth a shot at plus-money. The highly-touted Quinn Mathews debuts for St. Louis after posting a 3.13 ERA in AAA with 111 strikeouts over 92 innings. Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman is a shell of his former self and likely needs to be dealt out of Toronto. The Blue Jays have lost eight of his starts in-a-row and 9 of 10 since the beginning of June. Look for the Cardinals to even the weekend series behind their rookie left hander on Saturday.
Ranger Suarez has a 3.02 ERA on the season, but it’s in the mid-2’s over the last two months, and he’s been better on the road than at Fenway. The Dodgers are rarely considered a “good matchup” for any opposing pitcher. But since the All-Star break, L.A. owns a .528 OPS vs. left-handers. Only the anemic Tigers have been worse. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are going the bullpen route. Their bullpen ERA since the break is at 5.11 – not on the same level as the Boston pen (1.57) that’s backing Suarez.













