White Sox starter James Shields has a fly-ball rate of 44.5% this season, which is in line with the 43.5% rate he posted in 2017. The difference is that last year Shields had a HR/FB rate of 17.4%. This year that number is down to 8.2%. The ball flies at Guaranteed Rate Field in the summer months, and with temperatures in the low 90s and a strong wind blowing toward left field, today is likely the day Shields' home run luck runs out.
4-0 IN LAST 4 MLB PICKS | +402
Value can be found with the Tigers against the White Sox on Sunday. After Saturday's late-inning heroics, look for Detroit to complete the sweep. Grab the Tigers.
61-44 IN LAST 105 MLB PICKS | +1770
14-3 IN LAST 17 DETROIT ML PICKS | +1136
Chase Anderson is coming off a one-hit, seven-inning gem against the Cubs. He'll face Phillies ace Aaron Nola, who isn't getting a ton of run support. My projections show the Brewers winning this one more than half the time and keeping it within a run more than 70 percent. Take the Brew Crew on the run line.
64-42 IN LAST 106 MLB PICKS | +2020
7-3 IN LAST 10 MILWAUKEE ATS PICKS | +290
My trusty simulations indicate Reds pitcher Anthony DeSclafani getting the better of Pirates starter Joe Musgrove on Sunday. In 54 percent of the sims, Cincinnati wins this game by an average of nearly a run. Back the underdog Reds on the road.
5-2 IN LAST 7 CINCINNATI ML PICKS | +256
Milwaukee managed to cover the Over by itself on Friday night as these two teams combined for 15 runs. Suffice it to say I'm not expecting as many offensive fireworks in this one. Junior Guerra has been excellent at home this season, sporting a 2.79 ERA.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MILWAUKEE O/U PICKS | +87
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