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Angelo MaglioccaAmagsSat at 2:00 PM35Amags' MLB Extra Innings Weekly Chat
David BearmanThe UndertakerMay 28 at 7:00 PM2NCAA Baseball Regionals: Bearman's Bets
6 Expert Picks
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FanDuel (1.5u). I’ve been a big Randy Vasquez fan early on this season. The right-hander dropped his arm angle and tweaked his repertoire, which has resulted in increased velocity and spin, and thus, more swings and misses than he’s produced in his MLB career to date. With 34 strikeouts in 33.2 innings (a nearly 25% K%), Vasquez has cleared this line in 5/6 starts, and will face a Giants lineup that’s been strikeout prone of late (24% over the last 2 weeks against righties), and not hitting well either (.633 OPS within the same subset).
Logan Gilbert has lost four of his seven starts this year, but he’s a huge favorite against the Braves, who have baseball's best record at 25-10. The Mariners are 16-19 and only 10-10 at home. If you bet the Braves all season, your profit margin is plus-796, but if you bet the Mariners, you're minus-804. The Braves have been doing it with their hitting (No. 1 in hitting at .276), but their pitching has been the main source of their success as they are No. 2 in baseball with a 3.19 ERA. The Braves have won both of JR Ritchie's starts this year. Braves at plus money is a play.
Dealing with a stiff neck, Jose Soriano still gutted out five innings and racked up six strikeouts with 19 whiffs in his last start. The splitter was lethal with three strikeouts and seven whiffs, yet he struggled with command at times, walking three, and had to work himself out of multiple messy innings. Facing the same lineup but this time at home, I'm not going to overthink this and take the over again. The White Sox are one of the highest whiff rate teams in MLB, and Soriano has been incredible at racking up the swing and miss this year. 7,8,9 and even 10 Ks if you have it available! 0.5u/0.35u/0.15u
It's difficult beating a good pitcher in back-to-back outings. The White Sox did get to Angels ace Jose Soriano last time out on the South Side but I rather doubt they are good enough to do it again tonight in Anaheim. Although, Chicago pitcher Davis Martin has been shockingly good too at 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA. He ain't that good and Martin's road splits, while very strong, are significantly worse than at home.
De'Aaron Fox averaged 20.2 points in the first playoff round, and I like him to be very productive in this matchup. He scored 18-plus three straight times to close the Portland series. Just as important, the Spurs gave Fox 34-plus minutes in every game. In three regular-season matchups with Minnesota, Fox put up 25 points twice (and 12 in the other matchup in which he shot 6 of 19). Look for the vet to start out hot in the Western Conference semis.
This is a large number for Jaden McDaniels considering that Anthony Edwards is tentatively expected to suit up tonight. McDaniels has seen his usage surge without AD which is partially why this line is this high. There is also significant blowout risk with the Spurs checking in as double digit favorites tonight.
De’Aaron Fox averaged 6.8 assists per game in the five-game series vs. Portland, hitting over 5.5 assists in four of the five games. This came on 10.8 assist chances per game in the series, the 14th-highest average of the first round. He also hit this in two of the final three games of the regular season, with the one he missed in the meaningless finale. Fox also averaged 34.8 minutes per game in the series, playing at least 33 minutes in all five games. The Wolves are not as good at defending the guards as Portland was during the season, so this might be a better matchup.
Anaheim won all three regular-season meetings by the same score of 4-3, but the Ducks didn't face current Knights No. 1 goalie Carter Hart in any of those -- or have they faced Vegas since John Tortorella took over as head coach. Completely different club since then. Could be a bit of an Anaheim trap spot, too, after the upset of Edmonton in Round 1. This is new territory for most of the Ducks.
While everyone concentrates on Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox has taken advantage. The five games vs. the Blazers, Fox scored no less than 17 points and scored 28 and 21 in the final two, shooting 50% on the series. In three games vs. the Timberwolves, Fox scored 25 points in two of them. The last six meetings with Mike Conley, Fox is averaging 28.3 ppg.












