Sportsline

This is too low Friday. ...

With nine of 16 wins coming by double digits at home, it's easy to see the value on this team...

The new guys on the Mets haven't been hitting yet...

The Nationals return home ranked second in runs scored...

Scoring Barnes has a tough matchup against the Cavs. …

The Flames are giving a goalie his first NHL start. ...

Can Jalen Green spur the Suns to victory? …

It's time to fade the team that has conceded nine goals in their last three matches...

The Denver Nuggets host Minnesota in a high-stakes first-round showdown…

James Harden hasn’t been the same on the Cavs. …

What a stupid afternoon. Could have gone 0-3 or 3-0. The word "bullpen" has officially been banned in mi casa (Snoopy is upset). Might try a week where I only do F5 ML favorites and not worry about relievers. Always wanted to try that. The Yankees I'm gonna have to write about soon if things don't change because that might be the worst bullpen I've seen in years ... I digress. San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. is in the lineup after hosing us Wednesday in a surprise sit. Seattle's Luis Castillo has been a fine pitcher for years but has been raked in his past two. Wonder if he's healthy? Probably many Padres ML plays out there but I think this is a not-bad number.

San Diego has won seven straight, many of which has come with ninth-inning dramatics. The Padres can’t live on that alone – and may not need to here. Mariners RHP Luis Castillo has allowed 11 runs his last two starts, and the Pads have a .772 OPS vs. right-handers the last couple weeks. Walker Buehler will only go 70 pitches before giving way to a solid bullpen 2.76 ERA L15 days). Sounds like a good spot to back plus odds.

We love the pitching matchup in the Guardians-Orioles game tonight, with lefty Parker Messick on the hill for Cleveland. He's given up one earned run over 17.2 IP, holding opponents to a .180 batting average. Shane Baz is the Orioles pitcher, and he's given up 7 ER in the first 5 innings of games this season. We don't want to worry about the bullpens in this one, so isolating the first five innings with Messick.

This is an excellent starting pitching matchup, but it's the Orioles who should have a solid advantage in the later innings. Baltimore owns a 3.62 bullpen ERA, compared to Cleveland's 5.08 bullpen ERA. Guardians star Jose Ramirez is batting .205 and fouled a pitch off his shin in Wednesday's loss at St. Louis. He's expected to play, but is not the same offensive force, at least not yet.

Progressive Field is currently yielding a +9% home run factor. Crucially, the park features a shorter right-field fence, which is the primary target for a left-handed pull-power hitter like Chase DeLauter. The forecast for 6:10 PM ET indicates 63°F with winds at 14 mph. Winds blowing out to RF in a small park environment significantly increase the probability of "borderline" fly balls clearing the wall. The market price of +470 implies a 17.5% probability of a home run. DeLauter has homered in 25% of his games this season and is facing a pitcher with a substantial 1.4 HR/9 rate in a park that favors LHB power; the mathematical edge is significant. Notably, he hasn’t homered since April 1st. Positive regression is expected.