Are the Orioles turning a corner? ...

Can the Oilers take a 3-2 lead in the Final? ...

Is this a course correction weekend at CBP? ...

Betting against Bowden Francis. ...

Give me a replay of what we got in the Bronx ...

Southpaw Sickness ...

Caesar’s. Buying high on Yoshinobu Yamamoto who has cleared this in three of his last four starts, all being tough matchups. The Giants struggle more on the road against righties (24% K%), are without one of their best hitters (Matt Chapman) and are coming off a series in the Coors Field altitude.

DraftKings. If you’ve been following my bets throughout the years, you know I’m a massive Logan Webb fan. That being said, this is a very high line for the Giants ace in a brutal matchup. The Dodgers have historically hit Webb well (collective .900 OPS against him, in over 210 plate appearances), and they crush righties at home: .924 OPS and a 158 wRC+. Webb has typically struggled a bit more on the road as well - 3.95 ERA and under this line in five of seven starts this season.

Seven of nine projected hitters for the Dodgers have double digit career at bats against Logan Webb, as Ohtani, Betts, Freeman and Muncy are each hitting over .300 vs. Webb. I tend to not put a ton of stock into batter vs pitcher stats because of smaller sample sizes but I found the amount of experience/success interesting here. The Giants offense has limited experience against Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the other side and he's been brilliant in 11/13 starts so far. The Dodgers just won two of three in San Diego and return home here against the Giants who are just one game back in the NL West. In the first meeting of these teams this year, I'll side with LA holding the lead after five.

This is a buy-low spot for Fernando Tatis Jr., who hasn't hit a home run in 13 games. Over that stretch, he's just 8-for-46, but he has 10 walks to 8 strikeouts—suggesting he's been a bit unlucky on balls in play. Tatis is 4-for-11 in his career against Ryne Nelson, though he hasn't homered off him yet. Having had some success against Nelson should give Tatis confidence in today's matchup. He's hitting .281 with 12 of his 13 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. Despite his recent struggles, we set the line at +350 for Tatis to homer, so +500 is a strong buy-low opportunity.

The Thunder are now 0-8 on the road ATS. Last game, the Pacers outscored the Thunder 32-18 in 4th quarter after trailing by 5. Also, the Pacers outscored the Thunder 49-18 in bench points. This is NOT happening again! The Thunder step up and answer this challenge.

The Thunder are in the same situation as they were in the Denver series, where they lost Game 1 at home and Game 3 on the road and responded with the Game 4 win. They only went 2-5 against the spread in the series but went on to win Game 7, and I think it's going to be something like that here as well as the Thunder play Game 4 at Indiana. The Thunder fizzled out in the 4th quarter, scoring only 18 points. It was trending over all game until late when OKC couldn't make a shot. They shot 47% for the game and 45% from three, and still lost thanks to 17 turnovers. The Pacers aren't going to slow down. Just the over.

The Thunder aren’t the same team on the road. We saw that when they allowed 116 points in a loss to the Pacers in Indiana in Game 3. The Thunder are 4-4 on the road in the playoffs and none of their four wins came by more than six points. They have allowed 100.6 points per game at home in the playoffs, but they have allowed an average of 115.9 points per game on the road. If the Pacers are going to pull off the upset and win the title, they must win Game 4 at home. They know that. I expect them to keep this close enough to cover, even if they don’t win.

T.J. McConnell provided a huge spark off the bench for the Pacers in Game 3, posting 10 points, five assists and one rebound over 15 minutes. He hasn’t played more than 18 minutes in any of the three games in this series, but he still has finished with at least 14 combined points, rebounds and assists in each game. During the regular season, he averaged 9.1 points, 2.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists over just 18 minutes per game. In the playoffs, he has averaged 8.6 points, 2.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists over 16 minutes per game. Even in limited minutes, I like his chances of hitting this over at home.

Are the oddsmakers paying a bit too much respect to the venerable NBA playoff zig-zag? OKC has won all five after its postseason losses, but it has covered only three of those. Maybe more importantly, the Thunder hasn't covered at all in eight playoff games on the road this spring. Meanwhile, wagering markets have also been underrating the Pacers too much all postseason, neglecting to note Indiana's second-best NBA record since New Year's. (Those losses in October, November, and December aren't too meaningful in June.) Various scorers have stepped forward for Rick Carlisle's Indy all throughout the playoffs, and note how the Pacers slowed SGA ("only" 24 points) in Game 3. All are worrying developments for the Thunder. Play Pacers.