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Caesar’s. Merrill Kelly has cleared this strikeout line in eleven of his nineteen starts. His recent streak of ten straight starts with at least six strikeouts was snapped against both the Giants and Padres, but he’ll now face an Angels lineup that’s consistently been K-friendly during the first half of the season (25.3%). Expecting the Angels to start at least six right handed bats (Kelly’s better split), and wouldn’t be shocked to see some veterans on the bench today.

Mitch Keller has allowed three runs, or less, is each of his last six starts despite having a 3-10 record on the season. Pittsburgh struggles supporting their starting pitchers with offense as they’re dead last in the majors hitting .206 on the road. Simeon Woods Richardson owns a 3.28 home ERA and held his opponents to three runs, or less, in each of his last five starts. The Pirates have scored a total of 10 runs during their seven-game losing streak and have scored two runs, or less, in 11 of Keller’s last 12 starts.

The New York Mets are in a vulnerable spot Sunday, prior to All Star break. Today will mark their sixth straight game on the road, and the Royals have not been swept in five series. After losing eight of nine starts with Noah Cameron on the mound, look for the Royals to win consecutive games with him as starting pitcher for the first time this season.

Washington starter Jake Irvin has a 6.96 ERA over his past eight outings overall and 5.81 on the road this season. A few Brewers led by Willson Contreras (1.611 OPS in nine at-bats) have good if limited splits off him. It's ace righty Freddy Peralta (1.56 home ERA) starting for the Brewers, meaning he won't be able to throw in the All-Star Game. He will have at least one extra day off ahead of his next start so the team should have little problem allowing him to go at least seven IP if need be and not getting shelled. No James Wood for WSH, which is a nice surprise.

Caesar’s. Hand up, as I’ve unsuccessfully faded pitchers’ strikeouts against the Tigers the last two games. Today, I’ll flip the script and back Logan Gilbert, who has cleared this line in eight of ten full starts this season. With 79 strikeouts in 55.2 innings, his 35.1% K% has him in the 96th percentile. His splitter (main strikeout pitch) should play today - seven hitters in the Tigers lineup have a 33% whiff and strikeout rate or worse against the pitch.

The Cubs got a big win yesterday against the Yankees, with three runs in the third. One of the big at bats was a Seiya Suzuki double which ended up being his only hit of the game. Look for a more effective performance from Suzuki today against Will Warren who has had issues against NL teams. Take Suzuki’s total bases over.

George Springer, one of MLB's biggest All-Star snubs, is off to a hot start with 5 home runs in his last 10 games. He's up to 16 HRs and an .869 OPS this season—an impressive jump from last year's .674 OPS and 19 HRs. Jacob Lopez has struggled recently, allowing 7 earned runs in 7.2 innings over his last two starts. Right-handed batters have hit 7 of the 8 home runs Lopez has allowed and have a .772 OPS against him. We set Springer's line at +314 to homer today.

More back-and-forth lately for the Halos than we'll see in Sunday's Sinner-Alcaraz Wimbledon final, as the Angels haven't won back-to-back games since June 24-25 vs. the Bosox. The pitching staff has also had a bumpy week, allowing 42 runs across the past five games vs. the Rangers and D-backs, and Saturday starter Yusei Kikuchi wasn't especially sharp in his last trip to the mound, allowing four runs and five hits on Monday vs. Texas. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen is beginning to hit stride in the Arizona rotation, off of his best back-to-back starts of the season, allowing just one run and 10 hits wile striking out 19 in just 13 IP during wins over the Giants and Padres. Play D-backs on Money Line

We got a huge pitching match-up in Houston tonight with Framber Valdez pitching against Jacob deGrom, but the side story is that the Astros have lost four straight after sweeping the Dodgers last weekend. That's the beginning of me liking deGrom in this matchup. Valdez gave up four runs in his last start, but also didn't allow any runs in his previous two starts. The Rangers lost 6-5 to the Angels in deGrom’s last start, but he won his previous six starts, getting the winning decision in five of them. He looks like he is back in prime form. The Rangers have won three of their last four. Texas to win.

FanDuel. As great as Jacobs DeGrom has been this season, his strikeout rate against right handed batters is a pedestrian 21%. That’s pertinent in today’s matchup, as he’s likely to face 7-8 right handed hitters in the Astros lineup. Overall, DeGrom is under this line in ten of eighteen starts. While he did finish with seven strikeouts in his previous matchup with the Astros, he faced a season high 30 hitters (five more than any other start). The Astros overall are a tough team to strikeout (20.6% versus righties on the season).

Framber Valdez is having a terrific season but this is a big number for him. He’s facing a Rangers lineup that has been very stingy as of late and has taken nearly 200 combined at bats against Valdez.

Maybe we have a real pitcher's duel here between Jacob deGrom and Framber Valdez. Except that neither of these two is likely to last beyond the sixth inning if that far. And the chances of a low-scoring affair have been lessened by the presence of the Rangers, whose offense continued its recent surge in last night's 7-3 win. That's now 44 runs scored across the past five games for the surging Texas offense, with overs in each of those contests. Also note Valdez is off of his worst start since the beginning of May, allowing 4 runs and 7 hits (plus his first homers since May) in 6 IP vs. the Dodgers last Saturday. Play Rangers-Astros Over