There’s no question that the Bengals have disappointed to open the 2023 season, and Joe Burrow’s nagging injury is certainly not a cause for optimism. At the same time, Cincinnati comes to us at a discount in this spot. Burrow playing the entire game is the risk we are taking here, and don’t get it twisted, it’s a risk. But he is starting, which would not happen if Cincy was unsure he could protect himself in the face of Aaron Donald. As such, we’re getting value on a desperate Bengals side playing at home. Cincinnati was the third-best cover team in the league last season and has plenty of fire power to keep Los Angeles on its heels.

Barring an 11th-hour setback, Bengals QB Joe Burrow's lobbying to play despite a hobbled calf muscle appears to have paid off. Seems likely that he would not subject himself to Rams peerless DT Aaron Donald if not able to move around. Cincy is solid as a favorite, having covered in 10 of the last 13 while yielding points. Though L.A. is off to a decent start, let's not forget that its wins totals prior to the season was 6.5, among the league's lowest. WR Cooper Kupp remains out, and rookie WR Puka Nacua, who went from anonymity to stardom in an eyeblink, cannot continue his torrid receptions pace.

This is the correct pick; Over was accidentally entered first. In their first two games, the Rams have run 78 and 77 plays, respectively. This is statistically an anomaly. They should run about 60 tonight. Thus, the numbers will regress even if they are just as efficient as they’ve been. The number that has not been adjusted for this is Stafford's completions. Play it Under.

It’s been a bit of fool’s gold for the Bucs through two weeks as they have beaten up on the lowly Bears and Vikings, a combined 0-6 to start the year. The Eagles, despite being 2-0 ATS, have not looked all that great as the NFL has clearly adjusted to Jalen Hurts. Both teams have struggled against the pass while being formidable against the rush, but Philadelphia had 10 days off to prepare and boasts the better overall team talent. I’d be more comfortable if this was -4 for Philly, but if Hurts can get A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert going alongside DeVonta Smith, the Eagles could pull away in the second half.

San Diego's loss at home to St. Louis on Saturday is what will keep the Padres out of the playoffs (and was crushing $$). They had that game and blew it, and while the Padres bounced back yesterday that's likely to be the killer. Still, NL Cy Young favorite Blake Snell is on the mound here and he has been amazing of late and this year vs. the Giants. Probably his final start of 2023 and with the Padres (free agent to be) unless Sunday's game somehow means something.

Just like this afternoon with Arizona -- which sadly proved to be right -- there are some trap issues here with Texas for sure but it has so much to play for and LA doesn't that we will overlook it and put a half unit down. Jon Gray better pitch better or he might not be in the Texas playoff rotation.

The Bucs can't score two TDs? That Philly defense hasn't been nearly as strong against the pass this year as it was in 2022. One Bucs TD might need to be in garbage time, but McLaughlin has hit at least two PATs in both games. I was going to play Tampa Bay ATS until top cornerback Carlton Davis was ruled out.

In the opener against New England, the Eagles ran only 58 plays, but they still had 33 pass attempts. Last week they ran it a whopping 48 times, which will probably not happen again this year. If Monday's game has the normal amount of plays and game script, Jalen Hurt should fly over this number.

Obviously this is all on the assumption that Joe Burrow plays. Would that talented Cincy team really fall to 0-3 even with Burrow maybe at 75 percent? I don't think so. Doesn't it feel like a Joe Cool type of signature game? I'm not even a Burrow fan and it does to me. Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo did a fine job scheming for this Rams offense two years ago in the Super Bowl, and that unit obviously isn't near what it was all due respect to Puka Nacua, who I'm already trying to flip as a Fantasy dynasty draft steal. It's the first time LA has played in the Eastern Time Zone in many months and that matters a little even at night.