Adam's Picks (4 Live)
Yankees RHP Cam Schlittler is the AL Cy Young favorite because he’s allowed 0-1 runs in 10 of his last 12 starts. He gets a Red Sox team he’s faced twice already this season; he's given up two earned runs on eight hits over 13.2 innings. So we’ll back a Yankees team that’s hitting left-handers against Connelly Early, whose ERA at Fenway is over two runs higher than his road split.
Troy Melton has been lights out in four of his five starts for the Tigers, so we’ll back him again here vs. an Astros order that’s scored over three runs just once in its last five outings. When he comes out, Detroit’s bullpen, with a 1.74 ERA since June 10, takes over. We can simultaneously fade Houston’s highly inconsistent Tatsuya Imai.
Over the last two weeks, the Royals have an OPS of .841 vs. right-handers – good for facing opener Casey Legumina – and an .813 OPS vs. left-handers – good vs. struggling bulk reliever Ian Seymour. Royals starter Seth Lugo has allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts. We’ll fade everyone and back the Royals.
Boston owns a .996 OPS vs. left-handers the last two weeks. Oh what fun it is to face Kyle Freeland, who owns an 8.50 ERA his last seven starts. Red Sox starter Ranger Suarez is either off (five starts allowing 4-5 runs) or really on (eight starts allowing 0-1 runs). He has a 2.21 ERA on the road and the Rockies have been held to three or fewer runs in five of their last seven at Coors.
Braves LHP Martin Perez got a win over Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers last time out, allowing one run over six frames. Here he faces a Padres lineup that ranks 29th in OPS vs. left-handers, and its 13 home runs ranks last. Atlanta isn’t much better hitting anyone lately, but should have a better shot against JP Sears, making his season debut after posing a 7.92 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts. The Padres bullpen is elite so we'll go First 5 here.
The Dodgers’ offense has fallen off a cliff lately, just four runs in the last three games and a putrid .540 OPS vs. left-handers the last two weeks. They’ll start against one here in Kendry Rojas, who has a 1.26 ERA and allowed 11 hits in 14.1 innings. Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski has allowed 0-1 runs in three of his last four starts, going 6-7 innings in each. The Twins offense isn’t something to be feared. The Dodgers won the first game of this series 2-1. The wind is expected to be blowing straight in at Minnesota.
Casey Mize has had one start off the IL and it was only OK, but overall has a 1.98 ERA in his last seven starts. He also owns a 1.27 ERA five starts at home. The Yankees have dropped 4 of 5 and the offense has scored 12 runs in those five games combined. Carlos Rodon has a 4.05 road ERA. Detroit has won four straight, with 4-5 runs in all four games.
The Padres are a tough team to figure out. On paper this should be a legit contender, but in real life it’s not happening that way. That said, their offense is still better than the Acuna-less Braves right now. Only the Mariners have a worse OPS than Atlanta since June 9. San Diego RHP Michael King has been better at home and under the lights. Grant Holmes has a 2.78 ERA in day games, 5.09 at night.
Starting pitchers Gavin Williams of the Guardians and Anthony Kay of the White Sox have almost identical ERAs. Same goes for the bullpens the last couple weeks. But Williams outside of Cleveland has a 4.94 ERA. Kay in Chicago is 5-0, 3.08. That Kay is a left-hander, and Cleveland’s OPS vs. LHPs the last 15 days is .517 (dead-last) doesn’t hurt.
Kumar Rocker goes for the Rangers after an opener. Last time out, he was torched for seven runs before being chased out of the 4th inning by the Twins. Rocker has a 6.92 ERA in three June starts and Miami's offense is hotter, especially at home. Tyler Phillips, meanwhile, has a miniscule 0.83 home ERA, allowing just one HR in those 32.2 IP. He's backed by a bullpen with a 2.01 ERA the last two weeks.
Reid Detmers is throwing well for the Angels right now. But the Athletics own a 1.070 OPS vs. LHPs the last two weeks, so they should plate some runs. The Angels also should against Jack Perkins, who owns a 7.62 ERA as a starter. The A’s bullpen boasts a 6.95 ERA in the last two weeks, too.
It's a high number, but consider who’s pitching. Kyle Freeland is 1-7 with a 7.98 ERA, with an ERA over 10 in his last seven starts. His last four starts have totaled 12, 16, 17 and 21 runs. Bubba Chandler is better, but he hasn’t gone over five innings since April and the Pirates bullpen ERA is 5.13 in June. The Rockies have a .944 OPS vs. right-handers the last two weeks. Two of the last three Chandler starts have totaled 14 and 16, the other was 8. Colorado’s bullpen ERA is 6.13 the last two weeks as well.
Cam Schlittler is the favorite to win AL Cy Young. Over his last 11 starts, Schlittler has allowed 0-1 runs in nine of them, and two runs in a 10th. The Yankees had scored 30 runs in three games before scoring just one run on Thursday. The offense has been fin without Aaron Judge (5.7 runs per game). Reds starter Rhett Lowder owns a 5.84 ERA in six road starts. He hasn’t gone six innings in a start since April 20, and the Reds bullpen has a 4.75 ERA in June.
Martin Perez is a beast especially at home, a 1.67 ERA in seven starts. But his record is only 2-2. So we’ll side with Jacob Misiorowski. Over his last seven starts, The Miz is 6-0 with a hilarious 0.18 ERA. Over the last two weeks, Milwaukee owns a .925 road OPS and a .914 OPS vs. left-handers. He should get run support. Atlanta’s offense since Ronald Acuna going on the IL just isn’t the same. The Braves have lost five of six. The Brewers on the moneyline is hovering around -190 so there's real value here.
Angels starter Jose Soriano is on a stricter pitch count not because he’s injured, but because he’s a prime candidate to get traded sooner than later. His last outing vs. the Rays, he tossed five shutout innings and was pulled at 78 pitches. He’s gone over five innings once in the last four starts. Over the last two weeks, the Athletics own a .941 home OPS and an .815 OPS vs. right-handers. Over their last 11 games, they’ve scored at least four runs in all of them and five-plus in nine.