No team allows more 3’s made to opposing power forwards than the Thunder. LeBron James hit two of them in Game 3 and three of them in Game 1. He’s only 32.6% on 3’s in the postseason, but all eyes will be on King James to produce. The Lakers were 3-0 when he hit two-plus 3’s in Round 1, and OKC will be happy to let him shoot from out there.
Lu Dort has started every playoff game with Jalen Williams out, and he’s mostly asked to stay out of the way. Still, he’s scored between 8-10 points in four out of seven, and the Lakers’ small forward defense allows for opportunities. So far, 35 of his 41 shots have been behind the arc, so we’ll side with Over 1.5 3’s instead of the 6.5-point prop.
OKC PF Chet Holmgren went 0-for-4 on 3-pointers in Game 3, but also 9-of-10 from inside the arc. The Lakers can’t let Chet run past them anymore, so expect more sagging here. That’s OK, as Holmgren hit two-plus 3’s in five of the previous six Thunder playoff games.
D’backs starter Mike Soroka has a 4.14 ERA. Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi is at 4.15. Most every other aspect of Monday’s matchup favors the Rangers. That Soroka has a 1.59 home ERA and it’s 12.46 on the road doesn’t hurt. The snakes have scored 0-2 runs in four of the last five games and went 1-5 on its last road trip. Texas just blanked a strong Cubs lineup in back-to-back days.
Cavs PF Evan Mobley has had two solid games and one dud for the Cavs so far. He has yet to come close to scoring his 18.2 ppg season average, but he has grabbed 8-9 rebounds in two of the games and 4-5 assists in all three. In Games 1 and 3 he totaled 12 and 14 R/A and on the year is at 12.6. Ten rebounds is very doable, 3-4 assists is too.
The Rays have won 14 of 16, and that’s because the pitching has been extraordinary – just 0-1 runs allowed in nine of those games, and two runs in four others. Drew Rasmussen had a quality start in a 4-3 win over these Blue Jays last time out. The Rays’ bullpen has allowed two runs the last two weeks. I like Kevin Gausman and he’s especially tough in Toronto, but I also like plus odds on a Rays team shutting everyone down.
The Yankees got swept in Milwaukee over the weekend. Now they lick their wounds and get to face a struggling Orioles lineup averaging 2.5 rpg the last four outings, a starter struggling with command and a bullpen with a 5 ERA this month. Ryan Weathers limited the O’s to one earned run his last start. The Yankee’s bullpen has a 2.12 ERA the last two weeks. New York bounces back.
Whether it’s strategy or mindset, teams play different on Sundays. This is a case in point. The Mets average 2.1 runs per game on Sunday and rank dead-last in Sunday OPS. The Diamondbacks average 6.0 rpg on that date with an OPS of .829. The Mets also own a .527 OPS vs. LHPs the last two weeks, so we’ll back Eduardo Rodriguez (2.50 ERA) over the Mets’ bullpen-game approach.
Miles McBride got a Game 3 start with OG Anunoby out, and it didn’t go great. In 21 minutes, he registered a PRA of 5. In Game 2, he played 21 minutes off the bench and had a PRA total of 6. Landry Shamet replaced him in G3, got more minutes and was far more productive. It’s possible Shamet gets the bulk of action again, it’s even possible (as of this writing) that day-to-day Anunoby plays. McBride’s season PRA average was a solid 15, but it’s not going well at the moment and stars take over in the playoffs.
Rudy Gobert isn’t out there to score for the Timberwolves. In three games vs. Victor Wembanyama this season, Gobert has tallied 2, 7 and 5 points. He’s grabbed 10 rebounds in each playoff game. The Wolves have had injury issues, but Gobert isn’t the one who’s stepping up offensively.
Parker Messick likes it under the lights, 3-0 with a 1.72 ERA in five starts. Minnesota has had issues with southpaws, so Messick can keep that run going. Cleveland also faces a left-hander, but its team OPS is 100 points higher against them the last two weeks. Twins starter Connor Prielipp has allowed two runs in each of his three starts, each going only 4-5 innings. That’s an issue for the Twins, whose bullpen ERA the last two weeks is 7.63.
Robby Snelling makes his MLB debut for the Marlins; he owned a 1.86 ERA in Triple-A and last year posted a 2.51 ERA in 25 starts. The left-hander who throws 99 is ready for his debut and gets a favorable matchup vs. a subpar lineup vs. LHPs. On the flip side, fellow LHP Foster Griffin has a 2.27 ERA in seven starts for the Nationals, and the Marlins are even worse at hitting left-handers than Washington. These teams average a combined 5.5 runs per game in the first five innings, but the pitching matchups and splits favor slow starts for the bats.
The Reds are hitting the ball, especially off right-handers, and the Astros aren’t, especially off left-handers. Houston starter Mike Burrows is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA on the road, so the Reds should score. Both these bullpens stink lately, so the edge goes to Cincy’s bats and to tough LHP Nick Lodolo, who makes his season debut with no limitations.
The Pistons survived their first round as a No. 1 seed. The team took a sigh of relief and outscored the Cavs 37-21 in the opening quarter of Game 1 of the second round. They made Jarrett Allen a non-factor and Cade Cunningham shot just 6-of-19; he’ll do better. Cleveland covered in just 37.8% of road games – only the Wizards were worse. This is also only the fourth time since March 1 the Cavs will be underdogs in a game. The previous three, they lost by 10, 22 and 14. The 10-pointer was Game 1.
The Cubs are in a spot to score a lot of runs here. The Reds are starting Rhett Lowder, who gave up eight runs his last start and is backed by a bullpen with a 7.66 ERA the last two weeks. The Cubs own an .807 OPS in that same span. Meanwhile, Shota Imanaga has allowed 0-1 runs in five of his last six starts and the Reds rank 28th in matinee OPS. The Cubs won the first three games of this series by one run each, so we’ll risk the heavy odds and avoid the run line.