Red Sox LHP Payton Tolle boasts a 1.99 ERA through four starts, but the team is only 1-3 when he starts. He's given up four unearned runs the last two starts. Bryce Elder has been even better (1.81 ERA in nine starts) and the Braves are 6-3 in those games. These respective offenses rank No. 1 and No. 27 in scoring. Boston is 5-10 as an underdog, Atlanta is 25-9 when favored.
Sandy Alcantara has been a good comeback story for the Marlins, but he's faltering (5.40 ERA last seven starts). His Tampa counterpart, Nick Martinez, might win the AL Cy Young if he keeps up what he's doing. He has a 1.70 ERA through eight starts, and is even better at home and in daytime games. Tampa's OPS in May is over 200 points higher than Miami vs. RHPs. All day on the Rays.
The Nationals' offense has been inconsistent, but overall the last two weeks it's hitting a .769 OPS clip vs. right-handers. Chris Bassitt has an 8.27 ERA in four road starts and nearly a 6 ERA in day games, so Washington can keep going here at home. The O's have scored over three runs once in the last eight games, so we'll back Cade Cavalli, who's been better at home and under the sun.
Cubs starter Edward Cabrera has allowed at least three runs in six straight starts. Sean Burke was knocked for six runs vs. the Mariners last time out, but tossed 13.1 scoreless frames in the previous two. The White Sox bullpen is a run better this month, and the hitting OPS is 70 points better. The Cubs rank fifth in MLB in scoring, but at 5.4 average a Wrigley inflates it. They’ve managed just three runs over their last four games, all losses. The White Sox have won three straight, scoring six runs in three of those victories.
Tanner Bibee has a 4.21 ERA overall, but in five home starts it’s 1.63. He’s 0-5 overall because of no support, but he could get support here. Cleveland owns a .781 OPS vs. left-handers this month, and it faces one here in Andrew Abbott. He hasn’t gone over six innings in any of his nine starts, and has usually been pulled in the fifth or sixth. Cincy’s bullpen this month has a 7.63 ERA and ranks dead-last in home runs allowed with the highest walk rate and batting average allowed.
Donovan Mitchell averages 31.3 ppg over his career in playoff closeout games (team is one win from advancing). He was limited to 21 in Game 5’s impressive road win, picked up by James Harden. But he scored 43 and 35 in the previous two. Back at home, look for the closer to do his thing and will the Cavs to the Eastern finals.
The Cubs’ OPS vs. left-handers this month is a hilariously bad .399. So here comes Chris Sale, who is 4-0 with a 0.75 ERA at Truist Park. The Braves’ bullpen has a 2.43 ERA this month as well. The Braves rank No. 1 in runs scored and No. 2 in home runs and the wind is blowing out. Ben Brown is good but he’ll get pulled too early by Craig Counsell, and the bullpen has struggled recently.
We’re living on the wild side fading Chase Burns. But here’s the thing: The Nats own an .812 OPS the last two weeks vs. right-handers, and the Reds’ 7.63 bullpen ERA in May. Meanwhile, Cincy’s OPS vs. left-handers is .455 this month and Foster Griffin has actually been even better than Burns, allowing one earned run his last 20 innings.
Lance McCullers doesn’t have it. Through seven starts, his ERA is at 7.41, and that includes a 4.1-inning, 6-run dud vs. the Mariners. Bryce Miller comes off the IL for his season debut for Seattle. He was only OK last year but posted a 1.98 ERA in four MiLB starts and the Mariners’ pen has a 3.00 ERA in May. Houston has scored two runs or less in five of its last six.
Cavaliers guard James Harden totaled 15 combined rebounds and assists in Game 1. Since then, his totals have been 9, 9 and 11, the latter of which was with zero boards. The Pistons ranked No. 1 in fewest assists allowed to opposing point guards, so expect The Beard’s assist numbers to dip. His rebounding totals have dipped each of the four games.
I’m a fan of Shota Imanaga. However, the Cubs LHP has been nearly two runs worse on the road compared to at Wrigley, and here he faces a lineup with a .794 OPS vs. left-handers this month. So we’ll ride with JR Ritchie, who’s given up 2-3 runs each start, and a stellar bullpen behind him, at plus odds.
Jaden McDaniels has five-plus boards in three of the four games so far this series, and eight-plus rebounds in four of the seven games last series. He’s leaning into his defense and rebounding while still scoring in the teens. With teammates Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert guarding posts with perimeter shooting, McDaniels is just as likely to be down low cleaning the glass as anyone.
No team allows more 3’s made to opposing power forwards than the Thunder. LeBron James hit two of them in Game 3 and three of them in Game 1. He’s only 32.6% on 3’s in the postseason, but all eyes will be on King James to produce. The Lakers were 3-0 when he hit two-plus 3’s in Round 1, and OKC will be happy to let him shoot from out there.
Lu Dort has started every playoff game with Jalen Williams out, and he’s mostly asked to stay out of the way. Still, he’s scored between 8-10 points in four out of seven, and the Lakers’ small forward defense allows for opportunities. So far, 35 of his 41 shots have been behind the arc, so we’ll side with Over 1.5 3’s instead of the 6.5-point prop.
OKC PF Chet Holmgren went 0-for-4 on 3-pointers in Game 3, but also 9-of-10 from inside the arc. The Lakers can’t let Chet run past them anymore, so expect more sagging here. That’s OK, as Holmgren hit two-plus 3’s in five of the previous six Thunder playoff games.