Betting hockey and getting the best of the number can boil down to trying to predict goaltending rotation and player availability. ...

Boston was embarrassed last time out to the tune of an 8-1 drubbing at the hands of the Winnipeg Jets. The final score there was rather misleading as a 3-1 game heading into the 3rd blew up on starting goalie Jeremy Swayman. Amid his struggles, Jonas Korpisalo has actually been the better option and the Korpedo gets the nod tonight. Boston performs at their best against limited offenses and Seattle is the poster child for that ranking 27th in expected goals across all situations this season. The market initially moved against Boston once Korpisalo was announced goaltender but I don't downgrade their rating on that. Time to lay the short price on the road in a good spot with the B's

Sheldon Keefe gets his second crack at his former employer after the Leafs relieved the bench boss of his duties after last season. Both teams have taken on the DNA of their new head coaches and are in the upper echelon of Eastern Conference contenders. However it's not a side I'm after here but the total with a goalie match-up between Anthony Stolarz and Jacob Markstrom. NJ rates as one of my better 5 on 5 defensive expected goals outfits and this is a Leafs team struggling to generate chances of late. Even with the return of Auston Matthews Toronto is struggling to generate offense grading out 31st in expected goals across all situations at 5 on 5 over their L5.

Cooper Rush has done what's been asked of him since taking over for an injured Dak Prescott. In his last five games here are the completion numbers: 21, 24, 32, 13, 13. Cincinnati no doubt qualifies as a bad defense ranking 28th in EPA/dropback, 29th in rush EPA allowed, and 30th in total EPA allowed. This tells me Dallas can pick their pathway and with Rico Dowdle flashing last week vs the Giants I expect a balanced attack. Given how the Cowboys are being bet it also suggests a tight game and neutral game script meaning Cooper won't be a high volume passer in this spot unless they're chasing all night. Under completions for me with QB2 in big D

Christian McCaffery's season lasted 50 carries before he landed on IR after last Sunday's game against Buffalo. Jordan Mason also joined CMC on IR meaning the backfield for the 49ers is thin. Isaac Guerendo is now the clear RB1 but there's not much proven depth behind him. That means Kyle Shanahan may look to get creative against the Bears' front; enter Deebo. Yes, that same guy with 1 carry the last 3 games. I'm going to bank injuries lead to opportunity and we're buying Deebo's rushing production at the absolute bottom of the market this week

Despite traveling to the West Coast for a road game, the Bears enter Sunday with a substantial rest advantage over their opponent. Chicago played the early game Thanksgiving while the 49ers have now crossed multiple time zones each of the last two weeks with road games at GB and Buffalo. The 49ers are also an absolute mash unit dealing with a rash of injuries to key contributors. It's also hard to ignore that the Bears have now gone to the mat with three of the 8 best teams in the league recently showing a willingness to compete in a lost season. Add in the interim coach bump and it becomes addition by subtraction without Matt Eberflus calling the shots for Chicago

Jordan Love has attempted more than 33 passes exactly once over his last six games. Green Bay's record in those 6 games? A robust 5-1 with the lone blemish coming against these same Lions when Love had 39 attempts. Detroit is a mash unit right now both along their defensive line and at at the LB position which means Matt Lafleur should go with a run heavy game script. Normally with a dog you worry about the game state getting away but I think the Packers are very live here and a positive result for them correlates to a relatively light passing load for Love. Under it is on QB1 as the Packers go run heavy in Motown in prime time

Goaltending; that's the word of the day north of the border with Ilya Sorokin and Sam Montembault expected to lock horns tonight. Montreal has been much better in their own barn defensively going 7-5 to the under this season compared to 9-3 over on the road. Both teams enter with scuffling power plays that are 2 for 12 over their last 5 games which helps against below average penalty kills. Then layer in the Islanders 3rd best league wide mark of 2.2 expected goals against in all situations in their L5 games and we're poised for a defensive battle at the Bell Centre tonight.

Courtland Sutton has the unenviable task of dealing with the Browns' primary cover corner Denzel Ward. Rather than force feed the alpha, this gives Bo Nix opportunity to look the other way and Devaughn Vele should become the primary beneficiary. Over the last 3 weeks Vele has seen 18 total targets and his receiving yardage production climb from 39 to 66 to 80 last week vs the Raiders. Going back to Week 10, he's generated a 17.1% target share, 22.4% first-read share, and 3.79 yards per route run. Over we go with the rookie receiver out of Utah at a reasonable price

The Ravens defense is flawed; I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. However the Ravens still boast an elite run stopping unit poised to make the Eagles one dimensional on Sunday. Saquon Barkley's push to darkhorse MVP should take a bump Sunday and I'm willing to pay the price that Jalen Hurts can't do it on his own. Philly is also banged up on defense and this isn't the kind of match-up where compromised health helps in stopping the Ravens. Lamar Jackson entered 2024, 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS on short rest in his career (0-2 this year) but the Ravens are scoring nearly 40 PPG...that's enough to get me to the window here

Tony Pollard gets his running mate Tyjae Spears back this week and that could spell accumulation problems. Yes, it's a favorable match-up vs the Commanders but the diminished workload could mean a reduced stat line. With Spears expected to eat into touches it sets up for Pollard to go under his total rushing + receiving number.

The Ottawa Senators have long been billed as a team that wants to outscore their defensive deficiencies but some of that is changing under 1st year head coach Travis Green. Ottawa ranks 7th in expected goals against across all situations this season although that metric dips to 17th in their L5. However the emerging issue for Ottawa has been creating chances during their recent run of play. LA is the king of low event hockey; ranked #1 in expected goals against this season. The Kings' don't have an elite netminder in David Rittich but the defensive structure insulates him plenty. These teams played to an 8-7 game earlier this year...that ain't happening again here

The Minnesota Wild have become a bit loose in their defensive structure and been semi bailed out by good goaltending. However defense is their DNA and against a Sabres team struggling to generate consistent offense. Buffalo is generating 2.86 expected goals across all situations this season, a mark outside the top 25. The last 5 micro view is a bit misleading as Tage Thompson is slated to see his first game action since November 11. I was waiting to confirm we'd get the optimal goalie match-up (Gustavsson vs UPL) and with those guys now confirmed it's what we needed to make this a bet

There are few puck prognosticators that had the Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets as two of the three teams with 30+ points in late November. Both outfits have strong goaltending to thank for their hot starts and we get best on best tonight with Connor Helleybuck for Winnipeg (5th in GSAX) vs Filip Gustavsson for the Wild (11th in GSAX). The Wild have been one of the league's best in suppressing chances; ranking 2nd in the league in expected goals against across all situations. Minnesota is also calling their leading scorer Kapril Kaprizov (13 G, 21A) a game time decision even after he took part in morning line rushes driving this total to 6; our desired buy price.

Out is Drew Bannister in St Louis after just 22 games as the permanent head coach making way for recently fired Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery. Monty will look to revitalize a team -21 in goal differential and just 9-12-1 this season. The Rangers go into tonight's game down a few key cogs most notably a scuffling Chris Kreider (9G) up front. While Blues' back-up Joel Hofer gets the nod over Jordan Binnington, I just can't get to a total of 6 under -105 on this game. Rangers have done well clamping down against low event offenses and the Blues are comfortable in games with minimal chances. Under the total for me at the Garden on Monday