Kyle Monangai remains out for the Bears in their MNF showdown vs Seattle but does that automatically mean Swift goes off against this Hawks front? The touches and volume will be there but I'll anticipate a full Caleb Williams game on this stage. Swift lacks vision and Seattle is tremendous with their run fits and with explosive runs hard to come by against this defense he needs 15+ carries to reach this threshold and I don't see it happening.

Jonah Coleman has the RB1 designation on the Broncos depth chart now but what exactly does that mean? I still believe Sean Payton wants to get JK Dobbins involved as a runner given his physical running style. RJ Harvey is now out of the mix after landing on IR so it appears to be a 2 headed monster however I think Coleman adds sneaky value as a receiver leaning into Dobbins as a battering ram. Going to fade his rushing total vs a good run D at the top of the market.

I've been looking for a chance to sell the Vikings and I believe it comes here against the Lions. Detroit's defense has quietly trended up the last few weeks and they have the kind of firepower I think the Vikings struggle to match. Pressure on Goff isn't always great if it gets home but I think this is where Drew Petzig puts together a good game plan and does his best to neutralize what Flores does best. I made this game -4 so laying -3 (-120) is a bet that I'm always going to make in the NFL.

GIve Montreal credit; they haven't missed a beat without their top center in Nick Suzuki and piled up right points on their recent road trip. Jacob Fowler has been excellent in net and is flirting with favorite territory in the Calder race. However this price is rich and it's going to trigger a bet on the dog. Pittsburgh had a heartbreaking loss earlier this week to Utah and I think you'll get a bounce back effort here knowing how important playing in Montreal is for Sidney Crosby. My numbers make this game closer to Pittsburgh +115 so a decent edge on the road dog assuming a Silovs-Fowler goaltending match-up.

Don't look now but the Boston Bruins are sitting on 19 points atop the Atlantic in the midst of a 7-2-1 run but is it sustainable? A quick look under the hood shows the Bruins have outperformed their expected goals on offense (+8.74) however its the goaltending tandem that's carried them performing at a +15.21 goals saved above expected. The underlying metrics at 5 on 5 and across all situations suggest what goes up must come down. The Blues have been snakebitten offensively and ran into a white hot Jacob Fowler on Tuesday suggesting they're leaving a lot out there. Projecting Hofer vs Swayman I'm at Blues -123 here and on the off chance Sway sits this price will run even further from current.

When Connor Helleybuck makes his NJD debut remains a mystery but what isn't right now is how well the Devils are playing at both ends of the ice. From an expected goals standpoint across all situations and at 5 v 5 this team has been elite. Meanwhile for Dallas the Stars are playing good hockey but often being priced based on reputation above all else. I think there's also a chance that starting goalie Jake Oettinger gets the night off Tuesday but even if he doesn't I still show a sizable edge on the road team here.

Jonah Coleman is the rare combination of size and speed in the Broncos backfield. We've seen the primary usage for JK Dobbins between the tackles and RJ Harvey as a next level pass catcher. Coleman brings the juice and with him being activated off IR this week I expect there to be a clearly defined role for him today with 6-8 carries. If that plan holds true I make him a favorite to finish in the mid 20's with rushing yards but I always remind myself it is Sean Payton so rational expectations are always tempered.

Nick Suzuki might be one of the league's most underappreciated players, and the value he adds to this Canadiens roster can't be overstated. He's expected to miss some time with an upper body injury and for a roster already thin up top this is a big blow. Montreal also isn't getting the goaltending they need now from playoff standout Jakob Dobes so there are other issues brewing up north as well. Chicago isn't elite but they're a team that's much better going forward with their captain in the mix and with extra rest here I'll take the home dog at a price I made closer to +112 when making injury adjustments

Anaheim elected to start backup goalie Ville Husso in the first of their NY double against the Rangers. That means all signs point to starting goalie Lukas Dostal getting the nod against the Isles and Ilya Sorokin. I don't make my total 6 for this particular game with that match-up against a Ducks side playing a back-to-back. Adjusting for match-up and situation, I'm closer to 5.5 at -120, so the ability to grab a flat 6 makes the under a bet for us, with both teams struggling to generate offense at even strength.

I'm on Washington tonight keeping with a trend of fading San Francisco that has failed miserably the last two weeks. SF has been outstanding amid their undefeated start doing a tremendous job limiting explosives on defense while being ruthlessly efficient on offense. However I think they could find it tougher sledding to win by margin with a further compromised Mike Evans and still depleted DL. Washington isn't elite on offense but you can make the case with Jayden Daniels this will be one of the bigger tests for SF's stop unit over the last few weeks. Look I get if you're skeptical of a SF fade but numbers support a bet at 7.5 or better in tonight's game

Cowboys defense leaves a lot to be desired; there's zero reason to sugarcoat a stop unit trying to find its identity. What does that mean for us? It means the offense needs to put their foot on the accelerator and carry their weight against a Green Bay defense dealing with injuries at all 3 levels. When you consider the opposing QB's faced by GB (Tyson Bagent, Jalon Daniels, Michael Penix, Geno Smith, Kyler Murray) I'm not sure any of them are in the same class as Dak. This serves as a major jolt to the Packers defense and with good conditions at Lambeau I think Dallas' offense hums this evening.

Hamstrings are finicky and Caleb Williams knows even if he's not 100% his mere presence under center gives the Bears' a better chance to win each Sunday. I don't expect running to be a big part of his game this weekend knowing the Bears also play again on Thursday Night football. Look for Caleb to be more of a pocket passer going through his progressions inside the pocket rather than trying to scramble and throw off platform. I'll take a stab here that Ben Johnson wants his franchise QB to be smart and avoid using his legs to escape from the pocket.

I'm not going to learn my lesson and plan to put my hand back on the stove in backing the Houston Texans this week. Houston's metrics suggest the team has been rather unfortunate when it comes to end game situations mainly because they've been prone to the explosive play against. However there's a path in this game for the Texans to generate a pass rush and also pick on a vulnerable Jaguars secondary. I know we aren't getting the key but I'm closer to PK in this spot for a very desperate defensive dog.

The Flyers are extremely limited right now, and the underlying metrics paint a troubling picture for last year's surprise team. One thing that has been consistent, though, is that Joseph Woll is currently outplaying de facto starter Dan Vladar and should start to see more starts. For Ottawa, this is a group built on suppressing chances and the definition of an under-profiling team, with Artem Zub's return as well. I know getting ahead of the market assuming Ullmark (OTT) vs. Woll (PHI) can be tricky, but if that's the confirmed match-up, I believe this total closes 5 over -120, so we needed to move early.

Nobody asks you how you accumulate points in the NHL but every resume, especially early in the year, isn't created equally. Edmonton is racking up wins but doing it at the expense of teams like the Canucks, Sharks, Kraken, and other Pacific division lightweights. Utah meanwhile has played a tough schedule to date and fared quite well thus far. In my opinion this number should be closer to Edmonton -109 so we'll take the road underdog and capitalize on early perception even if the Oilers do get Zach Hyman back for the game.