Todd's Picks (1 Live)
Buffalo is playing good hockey right now and has played themselves into a wild card position. We see this as fans and the odds market also sees it and prices them accordingly. When you're in this business long enough it's knowing when to hold/fold a stock and that's where I'm at with Buffalo right now. They're reaching peak market pricing and in my opinion the Flyers are being undervalued. Philadelphia could get Jamie Drysdale and Bobby Brink which only helps the cause and we get the preferred goalie in Dan Vladar. Let's back the better defensive team at a juicy road price where I make the pup close to the +110 range here.
Tampa heads to Pittsburgh for the 2nd of a back to back with a rarity; starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy gets the nod after Johanssen started vs the Flyers. The Lightning also lost one of their top scorers Brayden Point on Monday to a knee injury that could sideline him a while. On the other side the Penguins have found their defensive footing registering the best expected goals against across all situations over their last five games. I'm going to expect defense to dominate and a total to only move one way before puck drop.
Columbus elected to part ways with bench boss Dean Evason in favor of veteran HC Rick Bowness to spark this team. Bowness is known for a defense first mentality at his previous stops and I don't anticipate that to change here even if it takes time. Calgary meanwhile has gone through a power outage of late finding it hard to generate chances consistently. This total is just a touch too high for me so anything at even money or better keeps the under in range.
Patriots run defense was outstanding to start the season; it wasn't great as the year progressed. I won't sugar coat the angle here that has as much to do with Omarion Hampton being limited as it does Vidal's upside. This price is short for a guy who could emerge in the game as RB1 so we'll get ahead of it
Give me the Chargers + the points here as I think they win this game outright. Los Angeles has been plagued all season long by an offensive line that looks more like a turnstile than anything else but fortunately for them the Patriots don't offer a Texans or Seahawks style pass rush. New England for me is an average coverage unit past Christian Gonzalez meaning Herbert should have opportunities to spread it around the yard. Defensively Jesse Minter needs to limit the explosives from the Pats attack and I think he can do that against a playoff debutante in Drake Maye. LA has been synonymous with playoff failures in the past; that all changes on SNF.
Both of these offenses are more than capable but will they find big plays today? I don't see it with major OL concerns on each side as Lane Johnson is officially inactive for the Eagles and Trent Williams potentially compromised in his return to action. The Eagles defense grades out as a top 3 stop unit for me and they'll challenge SF at every turn. Meanwhile the 49ers stop unit is extremely banged up but matches up against a run first Eagles attack. It's not the best of the number by any stretch however it's still worth a partial position for us today.
The Green Packers were legitimate Superbowl contenders earlier this season but those dreams have been dashed without Micah Parsons anchoring their pass rush. However this provides a perfect buy low opportunity on a Packers side that's dealt with a number of health concerns down the stretch. Guess what? They're healthier in this game along their OL and at the skill position spots. It's actually a below average Bears defense dealing with cluster injuries in the back end that could pose problems. Look you don't show massive quantitative edges this time of year but for me the match-up is impossible to avoid where GB should be able to do what they want when they want offensively. I'll back the pack at a cheap ML price
The New York Rangers are a mess; there's no other way to say it right now. They've struggled to score goals all year and now are being plagued by injuries to two of their best players in Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox. In my opinion the betting market hasn't caught up to proper pricing on them yet and I expect this number to be on the move by gameday. I'm closer to the Sabres -127 and it's why I'd like to get ahead of it in the overnight market and just hope we can avoid a Colten Ellis start in the Sabres crease
Seattle is going to play a lot of hockey during January; 17 games to be exact, and they know every single point is precious in their fight for a playoff spot. Seattle is getting outstanding goaltending from both netminders right now and it's sparked a quiet win streak. I'm looking for that to continue even on the 2nd of a back to back against a rested Bruins team. There's better than a 50/50 shot we see Joonas Korpisalo in net for Boston which is a major downgrade from starter Jeremy Swayman and the team lost a key piece of their blue line in Hampus Lindholm the other night. I'm closer to Seattle being a -110 favorite here so small bet at the current price.
The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs around Halloween (so it feels like) but don't tell them that. They continue to fight every single week under rookie QB Tyler Shough covering numbers at a high pace exceeding oddsmaker expectations. I think we see a similar effort on Sunday against a divisional rival that beat them in their building. The Falcons played their best game of the season on Monday and being asked to replicate that on a short week covering by margin is a tall ask. Give us the hook in a game the Saints win outright on the field.
Don't look now but the Leafs actually look like a capable hockey team and are showing a bit of fight. So much of this team's success is tied to their superstar in Auston Matthews and he's found his footing the last few games. Meanwhile the Isles have been propped up by good goaltending despite some scary underlying metrics of late. There is a chance Ilya Sorokin returns to the crease but the loss of Bo Horvat is massive. I expect the Leafs to close in the -120 range and there's a chance William Nylander returns for the game as well
New Jersey is having a challenge generating chances and the resurgent Blue Jackets defense might not be the answer they're looking for here. We have the goalie match I preferred with Jake Allen in one crease and Jet Greaves on the other side. My projected total for this game is below market value here meaning we'll root for goaltending and defense like we often do in the league.
Buffalo has been outstanding at home not just this year but the past few seasons with Josh Allen. One catch? The Eagles are the better team right now and there's a non-zero chance Josh Allen is limited Sunday with a foot injury. Even if Allen is a full-go I don't anticipate this game getting to a flat 3 so we'll bite now on the dog and see if the injury report works in our favor this week for a game I think the Eagles win outright.
Playing the Browns here on an inflated price tag for a Steelers team in "must win" mode. Browns OL is healthier than it's been and this will be their proverbial superbowl to play spoiler. I won't bore you with X's and O's since this is a numbers play for me that came into range after the Ravens upset of the Packers on Saturday night.