Rest becomes hard to quantify late in the NFL season but after years of reviewing data it plays a major role. ...

Jordan Love has attempted more than 33 passes exactly once over his last six games. Green Bay's record in those 6 games? A robust 5-1 with the lone blemish coming against these same Lions when Love had 39 attempts. Detroit is a mash unit right now both along their defensive line and at at the LB position which means Matt Lafleur should go with a run heavy game script. Normally with a dog you worry about the game state getting away but I think the Packers are very live here and a positive result for them correlates to a relatively light passing load for Love. Under it is on QB1 as the Packers go run heavy in Motown in prime time

Goaltending; that's the word of the day north of the border with Ilya Sorokin and Sam Montembault expected to lock horns tonight. Montreal has been much better in their own barn defensively going 7-5 to the under this season compared to 9-3 over on the road. Both teams enter with scuffling power plays that are 2 for 12 over their last 5 games which helps against below average penalty kills. Then layer in the Islanders 3rd best league wide mark of 2.2 expected goals against in all situations in their L5 games and we're poised for a defensive battle at the Bell Centre tonight.

Courtland Sutton has the unenviable task of dealing with the Browns' primary cover corner Denzel Ward. Rather than force feed the alpha, this gives Bo Nix opportunity to look the other way and Devaughn Vele should become the primary beneficiary. Over the last 3 weeks Vele has seen 18 total targets and his receiving yardage production climb from 39 to 66 to 80 last week vs the Raiders. Going back to Week 10, he's generated a 17.1% target share, 22.4% first-read share, and 3.79 yards per route run. Over we go with the rookie receiver out of Utah at a reasonable price

The Ravens defense is flawed; I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. However the Ravens still boast an elite run stopping unit poised to make the Eagles one dimensional on Sunday. Saquon Barkley's push to darkhorse MVP should take a bump Sunday and I'm willing to pay the price that Jalen Hurts can't do it on his own. Philly is also banged up on defense and this isn't the kind of match-up where compromised health helps in stopping the Ravens. Lamar Jackson entered 2024, 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS on short rest in his career (0-2 this year) but the Ravens are scoring nearly 40 PPG...that's enough to get me to the window here

Tony Pollard gets his running mate Tyjae Spears back this week and that could spell accumulation problems. Yes, it's a favorable match-up vs the Commanders but the diminished workload could mean a reduced stat line. With Spears expected to eat into touches it sets up for Pollard to go under his total rushing + receiving number.

The Ottawa Senators have long been billed as a team that wants to outscore their defensive deficiencies but some of that is changing under 1st year head coach Travis Green. Ottawa ranks 7th in expected goals against across all situations this season although that metric dips to 17th in their L5. However the emerging issue for Ottawa has been creating chances during their recent run of play. LA is the king of low event hockey; ranked #1 in expected goals against this season. The Kings' don't have an elite netminder in David Rittich but the defensive structure insulates him plenty. These teams played to an 8-7 game earlier this year...that ain't happening again here

The Minnesota Wild have become a bit loose in their defensive structure and been semi bailed out by good goaltending. However defense is their DNA and against a Sabres team struggling to generate consistent offense. Buffalo is generating 2.86 expected goals across all situations this season, a mark outside the top 25. The last 5 micro view is a bit misleading as Tage Thompson is slated to see his first game action since November 11. I was waiting to confirm we'd get the optimal goalie match-up (Gustavsson vs UPL) and with those guys now confirmed it's what we needed to make this a bet

There are few puck prognosticators that had the Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets as two of the three teams with 30+ points in late November. Both outfits have strong goaltending to thank for their hot starts and we get best on best tonight with Connor Helleybuck for Winnipeg (5th in GSAX) vs Filip Gustavsson for the Wild (11th in GSAX). The Wild have been one of the league's best in suppressing chances; ranking 2nd in the league in expected goals against across all situations. Minnesota is also calling their leading scorer Kapril Kaprizov (13 G, 21A) a game time decision even after he took part in morning line rushes driving this total to 6; our desired buy price.

Out is Drew Bannister in St Louis after just 22 games as the permanent head coach making way for recently fired Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery. Monty will look to revitalize a team -21 in goal differential and just 9-12-1 this season. The Rangers go into tonight's game down a few key cogs most notably a scuffling Chris Kreider (9G) up front. While Blues' back-up Joel Hofer gets the nod over Jordan Binnington, I just can't get to a total of 6 under -105 on this game. Rangers have done well clamping down against low event offenses and the Blues are comfortable in games with minimal chances. Under the total for me at the Garden on Monday

Terry McLaurin is 13th in separation and 14th in route win rate among 71 qualifying receivers. You might not know any of that given he produced a 10 yard receiving effort last Thursday vs Philadelphia and 19 yards vs the Giants two Sundays ago (albeit with a pair of touchdown catches). McLaurin has a 20.9% target share, 2.43 YPRR, and a 26.2% first-read share that should be very apparent today against a Cowboys secondary prone to giving up the big play when their defensive front doesn't get home. Combine a favorable match-up with a healthier Jayden Daniels and we've got the perfect recipe for a bounceback over effort.

I'm backing the Colts today at 7 or better against the ATS juggernaut that's been the Detroit Lions this season. Anthony Richardson comes into this game fresh off his best effort as a passer this season, riding a bit of momentum even in the face of a rushing attack that ground to a halt against the Jets. Richardson has been a good bet in his career in the role of underdog going 6-2 ATS and I think that mark gets better here. Bet against the Lions at your own peril but nobody has ever accused me of being the smartest guy in the room.

If the Boston Bruins are going to climb in the Atlantic Division standings interim head coach Joe Sacco needs to continue emphasizing defensive structure. That's exactly what we saw in his first game; a workmanlike 1-0 win over Utah. Admittedly we're still unsure who will get the start in net for the B's today but we do know Cam Talbot is expected to be in the crease for the Red Wings. Talbot currently ranks 8th in the league for goals saved above expected back boning an offensively challenged side. Detroit is generating just 2.28 expected goals across all situations over their last 5 games; not an ideal recipe here. Look for defense to dominate as we go under the total in this Atlantic Division clash.

Nick Chubb has clearly not been himself since returning from injury as the Browns continue making a concerted effort to keep his workload light. Last Week Jerome Ford had a 56% snap share but only finished the game with 5 carries. Inclement weather creating a slick surface tonight suggests a steady dose of ground and pound for Cleveland could be in the forecast. This has been a lost season for the Browns so in my opinion giving your franchise back a heavy workload on a short week doesn't make sense meaning Ford sees an uptick in touches. Given the depressed rushing total on RB2 we'll go over his number vs the Steelers.

San Jose is nearly a 2 dollar underdog against a Blues team tonight producing one of the league's worst goal differentials at -20 and a league worst 2.35 expected goals across all situations this season. Yes, San Jose is on the 2nd of a back to back but that's already built into the number and gives us a chance to back the dog. Tonight also marks the Sharks' debut of a franchise changing talent in net Yaroslav Askarov. This is a number too good to pass up between 2 of the league's 5 worst teams with a wide range of outcomes on the table