Regardless of how this game goes it's been a successful NHL betting campaign this winter/spring. The Cup Final has been as volatile as I can remember but over the last two games we've seen Carolina come up with the big saves and find their game against the Knights. The injury to Brayden McNabb has changed things defensively for Vegas (even if he's playing) and now the loss of 2nd line center William Karlsson looms large. Carolina's depth both up front and on the back is starting to show up yet more importantly for them is the high ceiling efforts from Brandon Bussi. Vegas has vets, they won't go down easy yet the series dynamic has changed and it's now the Canes cup to win

I came into this series thinking Carolina was going to be able to get to their game faster than Vegas; that held true for all of 20 minutes. The 2nd and 3rd period were lopsided in favor of Vegas as they beat Carolina at their own game winning puck battles, forcing turnovers on the forecheck, and playing a puck possession game. Honestly? I think that can happen again tonight and I show value at +130 or better in this spot. Vegas has already proven they're not content to merely take 1 on the road and feel like the "desperation" is being over compensated for in this spot. Give us the dog as VGK take it back to T-Mobile up 2-0

The scoreline in Game 2 and Game 3 might have read 3-2 OT winner for Carolina but the games haven't been that close. Since a rusty performance in Game 1 we're starting to see Carolina get to their game and assert their aggressive forecheck and physicality. Montreal has generated a grand total of 25 shots on goal COMBINED the last two games and I'm not sure what they can do to change that in Game 4. Carolina has 62% of expected goal share at 5 on 5 as well meaning the only thing close this series has been the final score each of the last two games. I'm closer to Carolina in the -55/-60 range adjusting for current form so I show a decent edge

Carolina's defensive chops were on full display in a "must win" game 2; holding the Canadiens to just five (5) shots through two periods and doing everything they could to suppress scoring chances. When it comes to the playoffs defense travels and I think we see more of the same from the Canes tonight. Meanwhile Montreal showed early this postseason that they're built to win a slug fest in their own barn as well. My total on the game given current form and situation is closer to 5.5 (over -15) so being able to bet under a flat 6 is an opportunity worth taking.

The reason this is a smaller position for us is because this isn't the best of the number. There was plenty of +70 or better available throughout the market earlier before we learned Cale Makar would be unavailable yet again. Without him logging top minutes this blue line group for the Avs leaves a bit to be desired. Vegas doesn't make anything pretty this time of year but they do like to make life difficult for their opponents. This is a huge chance for them to gain firm control of the series and this price is rich on the group that grades out better on the blue line and in net for me.

No reason to pretend I've had a great read on this series as shaky goaltending has been as much my demise as the Buffalo Sabres. That all being said we're currently seeing a runaway freight train in Montreal's favor with the moneyline moving more than I anticipated on the open. I'm personally closer to a true number in this game of -139 and while I do expect Montreal to win they're not worthy of such an aggressive price. Buffalo has defied the odds all season; why not one more time in hostile territory to send us to Game 7?

31...yes 31 total power play opportunities is what we've seen from these teams over the last three games. Typically as a series goes deeper and things tighten up a lot of the nonsense goes away and we see officials more reluctant to hand out power plays like Halloween candy. Montreal has really simplified their game on the road this postseason as well averaging just 1.62xG at 5 on 5 away from home. Combine that with Jakub Dobes strong play after a loss (4-0, .948 save percentage, 1.49 GAA) and we have the recipe for an under. Full disclosure I personally split my bet U6 full game and U1.5 (-105) for the 1st period tonight.

Buffalo came out on fire in Game 1 and capitalized against a beleaguered Canadiens side; it was Montreal turning the tables in game 2 with with a pair of quick tallies to force Buffalo into a negative game state. Early goals have headlined this series so far yet we've seen both games push a closing total of 6. I expect Buffalo to simplify their approach on the road like they did vs Boston that made them so successful while Montreal showed their defensive mettle at home vs Tampa as well. Tage Thompson appears to be dealing with an undisclosed injury as well that can hamper the Sabres offensive push meaning this contest has all the makings of a 3-2 grudge match.

I had a chance to see Game 1 up close and personal between these Pacific division rivals. After 60 minutes I came away with a few major observations: one of which that the Ducks are going to be the faster team all series but that Vegas won't stray from their identity. Anaheim was the better team at 5 on 5 but if you're going to win games against a structured opponent like the VGK squandering chances won't work. I really believe we're in for a longer series than oddsmakers think and while it's scary fading Vegas off that lackluster effort Monday I really believe the Ducks will bear down and convert against Hart. This price is too much for me to pass up here.

Not going to over think this game 2 approach as I'm going under the total of 5.5. The Flyers generated next to nothing at 5 on 5 and with Owen Tippett again listed as doubtful not sure much changes. Meanwhile for Carolina, they've shown throughout the playoffs their goal is to get a lead and take the air out of things; something they've become adept at doing in the past. I expect there to be a little more offense in Game 2 than what we saw in Game 1 but Carolina's defense still provides a tough nut to crack for a young Flyers' team.

Carter Hart's honeymoon phase under Coach Tortorella has worn off with back to back mediocre efforts between the pipes in Salt Lake. Fortunately for Hart the defensive structure of the Knights insulates him most evenings and I'm looking for that trend to continue here. The first two games in this series saw a combined 7.71 expected goals at 5 on 5 compared to 10.33 the last two games. Game state made each of the last two contests more wide open especially when teams were chasing multi-goal deficits. Given the swing we'll see tonight I'm looking for a low event tight checking well disciplined effort from both sides lending itself to an under position.

Take the names off the front of the jerseys and one of these teams has looked the part of perennial contender and it's not the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton can blame lackluster goaltending again but that shifts too much responsibility off a group that didn't generate a single shot on net the final 11 minutes of Game 3. Both of the Oilers stars are dealing with nagging injuries and that's a problem for a top heavy line-up. Anaheim has flashed their youth, speed, and veteran savvy behind the bench through three games. I show value in the home team anything +103 or better in Game 4 especially if we get a Tristan Jarry start for the Oilers.

Dallas has nine goals through three games of this series; 6 of those have come on the power play. When this series is played at 5 on 5 (hasn't happened a ton) chances for both sides have been hard to come by consistently. Minnesota knows discipline needs to be the order of the day here and I expect them to be smarter with their sticks. Dallas did a tremendous job in game three preventing inner slot shots and I expect that trend to continue here as the Wild will yet again be without Mats Zuccarello. Going right back to the well with an under bet in this series.

Jesper Wallsteadt and Jake Oettinger have been the story so far this series; Wallsteadt has answered the bell in his first two playoff starts while Oettinger looked incredibly sharp in Game 2 after an underwhelming performance to start the series. Both of these teams do so much of their damage on special teams but in a tight checking pivotal Game 3 I don't expect to see the same volume of special teams opportunities as we did in Dallas. This has been a low event series thus far when played at even strength and I believe that trend continues tonight with the first team to 3.

Game 1 was one that I'm sure members of the Tampa Bay Lightning and HC Jon Cooper would love to forget. Montreal made them pay for a slew of offensive zone penalties including the GWG from Juraj Slafkovsky to complete his hat trick with each tally coming on the PP. Lost in the shuffle of that result was a game devoid of scoring chances at 5 v 5. The underlying expected goal figure at even strength was barely more than 2. I'd hoped for a better market price given the 4-3 scoreline but I still show an edge going under a juiced 6 here when both teams are more than comfortable playing low event hockey.