Todd's Past Picks
Playoff pushes are real across the league and as a result we've seen most teams tighten up in their own end. Minnesota is the poster child for it and on the second leg of a back-to-back we actually get the goaltender in better form from Marc Andre Fleury. The Kings counter with David Rittich but there's not quantifiable drop-off for me with him and Cam Talbot. LA has rewarded Under bettors going 7-2-1 under the total in back-to-backs; my number on the game is 5.5 Under -114 so slight edge here with goals at a premium
Low-event hockey has become the mantra for both teams since the All-Star break. In a game of this magnitude, there's no reason to believe that changes. Both teams have been top 11 in the league since the ASG when it comes to expected goals against. We have all the meetings of a grinder Thursday in Buffalo.
Don't look now, but the Devils are surging, and they're doing it behind an electric offensive attack now that Jack Hughes is healthy. Over their last five games, they've averaged a league-best 4.22 expected goals across all situations and will face a downtrending Washington defense. Nico Daws has played well in net for New Jersey, but this is still a team on which defense is optional, and a track meet could be on tap in the nation's capital.
Game script plays a huge role in betting player props, and this week San Francisco, even with a lead, has a massive advantage throwing against the Lions' much-maligned secondary. Christian McCaffrey hasn't gone over 19 carries since Nov. 19, and that was his heaviest workload since Oct. 1. Last week showed he's still not 100%, and while he will get his touches against one of the league's best run defenses, I expect a lightened rushing workload compared to the market, especially if the 49ers find separation as a touchdown favorite. Give me the Under.
Vancouver wraps up a five-game homestand against Florida, which is one of the most underappreciated teams in the league with underlying metrics suggesting a top-five pedigree through the quarter pole. Fresh off a drubbing at the hands of Seattle, the Panthers will be entrenched defensively from the first puck drop. Over the last three games, Vancouver has trended poorly with a 43% expected goal share across all situations. Florida's depth and strong defensive numbers should drive play in a game in which I actually made Florida a -129 favorite when accounting for situation, spot and home revenge.
Defense should dominate tonight in Quebec. Pheonix Copley got the nod for the Kings against Columbus, so Cam Talbot is expected in net; he's allowed 14 goals in his last nine games for a team that ranks second in expected goals against over the last five. Meanwhile, Montreal has done a great job suppressing chances lately and the writing is on the wall for a 3-1 defensive-minded road Kings victory.
The Chiefs have gotten off to fast starts this season, then stagnated in the second half. We saw it again in the win over Miami in Germany. Andy Reid's preparation off the bye will be key in getting us to the window.
New Jersey may look the part on paper, but oddsmakers have yet to properly account for the key absences of Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier up the middle. The lack of depth there has been problematic when it comes to creating chances each of the past two games, not allowing players like Tyler Toffoli, Timo Meier and Jesper Bratt to flourish. Winnipeg plays a heavy checking game and should be able to win the puck battles along the wall. The key for the Jets will be staying out of the penalty box and preventing the Devils' league-leading power play from getting too many opportunities.
Buffalo is going through an identity crisis right now, and it's showing in their offensive execution. Head coach Sean McDermott and OC Ken Dorsey both have mentioned tempo this week. That's great in theory, unless the Broncos elect to establish the ground game and play keep-away. Buffalo should find enough to win, but this is a big price tag for a team that can best be described as inconsistent on offense and depleted on defense, as it's down yet another two contributors in the defensive backfield.
Toronto hasn't yet rounded into form offensively; underperforming in expected goal share over its last five games. There's undoubtedly a shooting regression coming for a team this talented up front but the Leafs' blue line will be under siege all night against a Kings team that is getting production from all four lines. I give the Leafs a slight edge in net but current form for LA, despite the loss on Saturday, makes the Kings a value proposition at +122 or better.
I don't expect the Vikings to have much success on the ground, forcing Kirk Cousins to throw early and often. In Minnesota's four losses, Cousins has thrown 44, 44, 50 and 47 times. With the Vikings closing as touchdown underdogs, Cousins figures to throw at least 37 times.
New Orleans draws the Jags at the perfect time; fresh off playing their third game in 12 days that included a road trip to London, a home divisional clash against the Colts and now traveling on a short week with Trevor Lawrence less than 100%. The Saints haven't been great this season as too many drives are bogging down in the red zone, but their depth at WR should pose problems for a Jags defense that is 21st in total D, 23rd in YPP, and 23rd in yards per attempt. The Saints find a way at home to sneak out a win and cover.
Revenge is a dish best served in Vegas, and the Stars have it on their minds after losing to the Golden Knights in the Western Conference final. The problem for Vegas is nearly half of the six defensemen that sparked its Cup run are expected to be sidelined due to injury. Vegas has won each of its first three games 4-1, but it faced San Jose, Anaheim and an offensively challenged Seattle team. Dallas should be getting top C Roope Hintz back after he missed the season opener. This is a Stars club that's entering a big early-season game well-rested and with a significant edge in overall team health.
The knee-jerk reaction here is Kellen Moore revenge and a high-flying shootout tonight. I'm not sure that's the case with a Dallas offense that's been much more horizontal than vertical this year. The Cowboys have called run plays on 46% of snaps, a rate consistent with last season. Of their completed passes on early downs, more than 35% have been deemed unsuccessful with a negative EPA because they're so short. Meanwhile the L.A. balance will be limited with Justin Herbert expected to take most snaps from the shotgun given the broken finger on his non-throwing hand. The public may want fireworks but defense should rule the night.
Skyy Moore could be the odd man out on Thursday Night Football, at least in terms of receiving. With weather affecting the passing game, Moore could get more touches in the running game. His receiving role has diminished with the emergence of Rashee Rice. I priced this at -210 so I will lay the current price.