Alex's Picks (3 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
Daniel Jones faces a very difficult matchup in a divisional clash versus an elite Texans defense that pairs a ferocious pass rush with an excellent coverage unit. Jones is playing with a fractured fibula and has started to struggle after getting off to an absolutely incredible start to the season where he ranked first in nearly every QB efficiency metric. Jones has come back down to earth the last few weeks and operating at less than 100% in what is a very difficult matchup, this is a very natural spot to fade the former Blue Devil.
Christian McCaffrey has been absolutely dynamic as a receiver and while he’s struggled with rushing efficiency he is having an incredible season catching passes and is functioning as the teams top receiving option. He faces a formidable Browns defense with an elite pass rush and rush defense, but I expect C-Mac to be heavily featured and utilized to negate Cleveland’s pass rush. Taking a volume based approach but also like his yards.
This sets up as a potential smash spot for Rashee Rice in a game with a projected 53 point total that is likely to feature plenty of passing volume. Rice has been exceptional against zone coverage which is good news considering the Cowboys have been playing zone at one of the highest clips this season, and particularly recently with an absurd 89% zone coverage rate since their Week 10 BYE. I expect Rice to continue to function as the top option for Mahomes.
Never easy or pleasant fading a player the caliber of Jonathan Taylor, however this is a big number, even for the elite RB. Taking a volume based approach here for a variety of reasons. First, he’s only eclipsed this line in 3/10 games this season. He’s also coming off a massive 32 carry/35 touch performance last week. I also trust this KC defense and offense. I expect KC to do everything in their power to slow down Taylor and force Daniel Jones to beat them, that is the path to containing the Colts. It’s also not a surprise that the Chiefs are a pass funnel and opposing RBs have the fewest rushing attempts against KC.
The Packers have a hyper conservative slow offense that runs at one of the highest rates in the league this year. Pair that with a Vikings defense that profiles as a significant run funnel and it’s fair to wonder how much passing volume this game will feature. That could spell bad news for Romeo Doubs who has mostly served as Jordan Loves top target in a move volume passing offense that loves spreading the ball around and utilizing numerous pass catchers. This is big line for Doubs and I think we’re unlikely to see an uptick in passing volume in this game.
Not even the QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell has been able to coax good play out of J.J. McCarthy, granted it’s been a small sample size but he does not look good, at all. McCarthy ranks dead last in EPA, he has been historically bad. Now he faces a GB defense that might not be the titan they appeared to be early in the season, but they are good in coverage paired with a very good pass rush, in addition to being a run funnel. GB also plays slow and hyper conservative and are not afraid to play in a competitive low scoring gamescript, and at this point I expect Minnesota to be very run heavy and hide McCarthy as much as possible.
This is a tasty matchup for Amon Ra Saint Brown who continues to be the focal point og a highly efficient passing offense that recently lost Sam LaPorta to IR (20% target share). Saint Brown is the clear focal point and in a matchup against a Giants defense that plays man coverage at the 3rd highest rate coupled with being very vulnerable to play action, this sets up as a smash spot for Saint Brown. This game has a 50 point total, with the Lions TT checking in over 30. Considering the Lions defense is banged up, this could turn into the type of environment that sees increased passing volume for Amon Ra. The Giants are down their top CB Paulsen Adebo as well.
Stefon Diggs has seen his route participation grow to a very healthy 89% last week which is a very healthy number. The Patriots are not afraid to air the ball out and with Joe Burrow looking likely to suit up, this could be an optimal game environment. Diggs has 19 targets over his last two games and is facing a Bengals secondary ranked 32nd in Defensive Passing DVOA, 32nd in EPA Per Dropback, 31 in Success Rate, and 29th in EPA/1st Reads. Simply put, this matchup can not be any better for Diggs.
Evan Engram is coming off two very disappointing performances after it was starting to look like he was carving out a role in Denver’s passing attack. Despite totaling just 12 total receiving yards in his last two outings, I’m encouraged and even bullish on his role and usage. Engram posted a season high 77% route participation last week and prior to that posted a season best 66% in Week 9. Engram combines that with a healthy 20% TPRR and there is still a lot of meat on the bone and considering this game is likely to feature negative gamescript and additional passing volume, this all points to better days ahead for Engram.
Matthew Stafford has had an excellent season and displayed impressive efficiency on a very balanced and potent Rams offense, however he hass benefitted from a soft schedule against some subpar pass rushes. That will not be the case this week when he faces a Seattle defense that has been the NFLs best defense (along with the Texans). Stafford has faced two difficult matchups this season against Houston and Philadelphia and struggled from an efficiency standpoint as I believe the Rams offensive line is overrated. Now he faces a Seattle defense that is elite in all phases.
The 49ers are not only getting Ricky Pearsall back in the lineup but also Brock Purdy ahead of their divisional clash with Arizona. Prior to Pearsall suffering an injury he was functioning as the teams WR1 and was Purdys primary target Weeks 1-4. He will face a subpar Cardinals pass defense that will be without their best cornerback in rookie Will Johnson, leaving potentially a huge mismatch for Pearsall with backup CBs Denzel Burke and Max Melton. We’re getting a sizable discount on this line.
This is a tough matchup for Rome Odunze who thus far has functioned as the WR1. Odunze has been great against man coverage, however he’s struggled against zone coverage which the Vikings run at one of the highest rated in the NFL, they also double team at the highest rate in the league and will be intent on slowing down Odunze. The Bears suddenly have lots of pass catchers as well with their pass catching group as healthy as it’s been all season long.