A potential NFC Championship preview on MNF. …

Marvin Harrison is coming off both a season high in targets and his second highest yardage total after dropping 96 yards on 10 targets versus the Dallas Cowboys. While it’s fair to argue that Jacoby Brissett appears to be an upgrade over Kyler Murray, I don’t believe that Harrison is suddenly going to be heavily featured in what is a significantly more difficult matchup against the Seahawks. Seattles pass defense ranks 10th in Success Rate and 13th in EPA allowed per dropback, however their season long defensive metric are somewhat skewed considering their secondary has been missing numerous starters throughout the majority of the season. In 3 games with Brissett under center, Harrison Jr is arriving approximately 6 targets per game.

Breece Hall gets an absolutely brutal matchup this week against the vaunted Browns run defense, which have been far and away the NFL’s premiere rush defense. Cleveland run defense ranks 1st in DVOA, Run Stop Win Rate, Success Rate, while checking in at 2nd in EPA. Couple that with Hall ceding meaningful touches to Isaiah Davis and this looks like a potentially very tough outing for any RB, especially one as feast or famine as Hall. The Jets are a dumpster fire and just gutted their roster. Breece Hall is an impending free agent and is unlikely to fit into their long term plans.

Zay Flowers is having a strong season as the clear focal points of the Ravens passing attack and has delivered strong efficiency. The Ravens were definitely happy to see Lamar Jackson return to the lineup, however this could be a tough matchup for Flowers specifically. The Vikings have a good pass defense which is backed up by 8th in EPA and 6th in Success Rate. However what makes this matchup interesting is Minnesota has been a significant run funnel this season, we know Baltimore does not need to be invited to deploy a run heavy gameplan. The Vikings also double team at the highest rate in the league, which could certainly lead to decreased volume for Flowers specifically as he is the clear first option.

This line is way too low for Tyler Warren even in a difficult matchup against a very stingy Atlanta pass defense that excels covering Tight Ends. Warren is a rare player to begin with and I love the way he’s utilized in Shane Steichen’s RPO scheme. Warren is a matchup nightmare and schemed touches in a way that makes him very difficult to prepare for. The Colts also have a bevy of receiving talent around Warren as well making it difficult to key on him. This is a rare multi unit wager for me.

Zay Jones has seemingly come alive for the Cardinals with Jacoby Brissett under center. In two games Brissett has started, Jones has compiled 10 targets, 7 receptions, for 148 receiving yards. This looks like an optimal game environment considering we’re working with a 53.5 point total and Jones will get to face a Cowboys pass defense ranked 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in success rate. Considering how low this number is this is a cheap piece in what is likely to be a shootout in Dallas.

I often talk about getting cheap pieces in potential shootouts and this Xavier Worthy receiving line is a tremendous example of that. Worthy has been a disappointment this season but he saw 88% route participation last week and this week were working with a 53 point total with numerous impact defenders missing. This is precisely the potential game environment that lends itself to possible ceiling/spike performances. Considering Worthy is likely going to run routes on most of Patrick Mahomes drop backs and operating downfield versus a leaky Bills secondary in a game that is very likely to see increased passing volume AKA a shootout, this is the approximate recipe we want.

Brock Bowers is an absolute stud and it appears that the star Tight End is finally healthy coming out of the Raiders BYE week. Bowers dealt with an early season injury that saw him come in and out of the Raiders lineup before eventually getting shut down. Pete Carroll has said Bowers is practicing at full speed and we’re getting a discount on a receiving line that was routinely in the mid 60s last season. Jacksonville has been a generous matchups to opposing Tight Ends, however Bowers at full strength is matchup proof.

I love this matchup for Justin Herbert and company. First and foremost having Joe Alt back in the lineup cannot be understated enough, it makes Herbert and LAC’s passing offense elite. Couple that with the emergence of Oronde Gadsden and getting to face a massive pass funnel who happens to be missing their best pass rusher/defensive player. I expect the Chargers to attack the Titans through the air and if Tennessee are capable of pushing LA, this could get really fun.

This looks like a potential spike week for DK Metcalf who is clearly operating as the WR1 in a surprisingly pass happy offense coordinated by Arthur Smith. Aaron Rodgers is playing well and with the Colts coming to town, this game could lead to plenty of fireworks with a 50 point total. The Colts are very capable and are likely to push Pittsburgh considering no team is playing better offensively than Indy right now. Furthermore, the Colts are struggling to pressure opposing QBs coupled with a depleted secondary that struggles in coverage. This checks all the boxes I look for in a potential ceiling/spike game.

I’m tentatively expecting Drake London to suit up for Sundays tilt against the New England Patriots. London is dealing with a hip injury that could possibly limit his effectiveness in what is a very difficult matchup against Christian Gonzalez and an elite Patriots defense. At first glance the New England pass defense looks average and vulnerable however their season long stats are misleading, since Gonzalez has returned to the lineup they’ve been excellent in all phases. London has played well this year but operating at less than 100% with very sticky coverage in what should be a less than ideal game environment, this looks like a good spot to fade the Falcons WR1.

Hunter Henry has seen his role diminish in recent weeks and that could spell trouble for him against a very stingy Atlanta pass defense. Henry is coming off by far his least efficient game of the season capped off by a 4% first read target rate. The Falcons who are a significant run funnel have covered enemy Tight Ends very effectively this season. Atlanta has surrendered just 105 yards to the position, which is by far the lowest mark in the league. To put that number into perspective, Miami has given up over 600 yards to opposing Tight Ends.

This is a very difficult matchup for Bo Nix and the Broncos offense facing off against an excellent pass rush combined with an elite coverage unit. The Broncos will need to get the ball out quickly this week and Engram looks like the leading candidate to benefit from this, especially without Marvin Mims has been ruled out this week. Engrams 25% Targets Per Route Run on quick throws leads all Denver pass catchers. Engram has also seen his route participation climb in recent weeks and is settling in as one of Bo Nix’s top targets. Considering the low number here there still feels like plenty of meat on the bone for Engram in a matchup that plays to his strengths.

Tucker Kraft has emerged as an elite Tight End for the Packers and while he’s certainly playing great football he is a significant regression candidate. Kraft has only received double digit targets 1x this season and his efficiency metrics simply are not sustainable. 60 yards is Trey McBride territory however McBride is the focal point of his offense, routinely receives double digit targets, meanwhile Green Bay is a run first offense that likes to play very slow with a myriad of weapons. While the Panthers aren’t a difficult matchup, I do question if they can push Green Bay. I’d play this down to 57.5.

Evan Engram has seen his role and usage increase in recent weeks culminating in running a season high 43 routes last week against the Giants. Engram has been a safety valve for Bo Nix and the Broncos have been a pass first offense which is likely to be the case this week playing a Cowboys team capable of pushing Denver. Look for Engram to be Bo Nix’s safety blanket in what is an excellent matchup.