Rashee Rice set to breakout? …

Christian McCaffrey to see some extended usage? …

Darren Waller is still a baller. …

Zay Flowers has been incredible when he’s been on the field this season. The problem for Flowers is he hasn’t been on the field that much, mainly due to injuries, but the stud WR logged his first full practice since Week 1 which bodes well for him to sell a full time role in Week 4. Flowers has incredible underlying metrics ranking first in targets per route run, first read targets per route run, yards per route run, and yards per target. Long story short, he’s the clear focal point of the passing attack. While dropbacks might be limited considering the Ravens are double digit favorites, he has a low receiving line and could go nuclear if this game is competitive.

Not many positives to takeaway from a Titans team that so far looks pretty awful, however Tony Pollard has been one of the lone bright spots and continues to be undervalued in the prop market. Pollard has been shockingly efficient this season, despite playing on a terrible team in a seemingly subpar situation. He continues to handle large rushing loads and he’s actually making the most of them. The Titans are also extremely conservative offensively and are not afraid to run the ball in trailing gamescripts. Pollard now faces a Baltimore defense that has struggled in run defense. I’m going back to the Pollard well until the oddsmakers properly adjust his lines.

This number is criminally low for Bhayshul Tuten who continues to impress and is the clear lead back on a very good Jags team. Tuten breaks tackles at an exceptional rate and possesses elite traits. He simply looks like one of the best RBs in the league, meanwhile Chris Rodriguez is a JAG. Tuten should continue to be featured and I would make this number 14.5. I’ll also be double dipping and backing his rushing line as well.

Parker Washington gets a mouth watering matchup in a game with the highest projected total on Week 4’s slate featuring two elite passing offenses. Washington has been the clear focal point of Jacksonville’s passing attack and I expect that to once again be the case against a Bengals defense that continues to struggle defending the middle of the field. Washington is operating exclusively out of the slot and had would have much bigger numbers if two of Jacksonville’s games were not blowouts.

The prop market continues to be behind the eight ball on Bhayshul Tuten who is an explosive runner with rare traits and is firmly entrenched as the feature back for the Jags. We’re getting a discount here due to Jacksonville having blown out two opponents, otherwise Tuten would have gotten more usage and counting stats. This looks like a great spot to back him against an improved Bengals team, however this isn’t a defense to avoid. Look for Tuten to handle 15-17 carries in a game that projects to be competitive.

Ceedee Lamb is the clear focal point of a very explosive and efficient Dallas passing attack. Lamb has been truly awesome this year, but I think this a really tough matchup for him against a Texans defense that has mostly struggled despite sky high expectations. The Texans still boast a very good secondary ranking 2nd in Dropback Success %, coupled with double teaming at the highest rates in the league. The Texans have also been able to consistently generate pressure without blitzing, which has long been Dak Prescott’s kryptonite. Lamb and company will really have to earn it against a bit of a sleeping giant in the Texans pass defense.

Jonathan Taylor will face one of the leagues best run defense this week when he takes on a Commanders defense that has been elite versus RBs. The Commanders have surrendered just 166 yards to opposing RBs despite facing the Eagles, Seattle, and Dallas. Jonathan Taylor is averaging under 4.0 YPC and the Colts offense is sputtering right now. I had this spot circled after coming away extremely impressed with the Washington run defense. I expect the defensive gameplan to center around slowing down Taylor.

Denzel Boston has a very impressive start to his rookie season and his efficiency metrics are especially good. The Browns have a condensed target distribution and very good things have happened when Denzel Boston has been targeted. Boston has turned 15 targets into 9-195-2 TDs, while averaging 1.99 yards per route route and a whopping 49.9% of Cleveland’s air yards. The Steelers secondary meanwhile is depleted and has been very vulnerable to play action, in addition to explosive passing plays where Boston has really thrived this season.

It’s been a disaster for Colston Loveland from a statistical standpoint through the first two weeks of his sophomore season. I was extremely bullish entering the season after watching Colston be heavily featured to close the 25 season and in the playoffs. I still believe Loveland is going to get on track and this looks like a good buy low opportunity. Bears starter Case Keemun historically has peppered his Tight Ends and I expect that to be the case tonight as the Bears are likely to operate out of a lot of heavy personnel formation. Despite Loveland failing to make an impact on the scoresheet, he’s route participation is still elite. Look for Keenum to rely on Loveland tonight.

This is a very attractive number for a QB still extremely capable of taking off and could eclipse this line on a single rushing attempt. Hurts is averaging 31 rushing yards per game and is averaging just under 40 throughout his career. Hurts is healthier than he has been for a long time and I like his chances to cash this prop.

Brock Bowers is tentatively expected to play Sunday against the Saints in what could be a high volume passing environment. Considering this is a discounted line, I’m willing to speculate and I expect Bowers to be heavily targeted in what is likely to be his season debut. The Saints are an optimal opponent because of their willingness to engage in a shootout. Bowers is likely to see 10-12 targets in what should be a high scoring affair.

Ashton Jeanty had a quiet Week 2 performance against the Chargers but I’m extremely bullish on his season outlook and love this matchup against the Saints. Jeanty is a usage monster and is the clear focal points of a suddenly competent Raiders offense. He plays a Saints defense that ranks 27th in EPA allowed per rush inside a dome in optimal conditions. This game projects to be competitive and Jeanty should see another huge workload. I have a lot of confidence in Klint Kubiaks offense.