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Will Michael McGreevy stifle the red hot Diamondbacks on Thursday?

Will the Rays sweep 4 games at Toronto...

Should Valter Walker be a bigger favorite? ...

The Cubs have scored 27 runs the past three games, but it could be tough sledding versus Keider Montero. He owns a 2.50 ERA over his last 10 appearances, including 3.1 scoreless innings last time out. For the season, he sports a 0.98 WHIP. Cubs starter Colin Rea (1.42 WHIP) gives up a lot of baserunners. and his expected ERA (5.46) ranks in the bottom 10 percent of MLB. Back Detroit in the first five.

Sandy Alcantara has pitched his way out of a slump; he has a 2.14 ERA in three July starts. But the Marlins starter all season has been notably worse on the road, and he’s in Houston against Peter Lambert, whose July ERA is 1.02. The Marlins have lost eight straight and the Astros are hitting better across the board, trends we'll bank on continuing for another night.

This game was a pick'em all morning until the line started to move in Chicago's favor. Left-hander Anthony Kay endured a tough stretch throughout June but has looked better this month, holding opponents to two runs or fewer in all three of his outings. The Rangers have hit left-handed pitching much better this season, while Chicago is batting just .224 against lefties on the road. Despite the line movement, the Rangers have won four of the last five meetings in Texas and five of the last six overall. Texas also leads the majors in batting average and OPS against left-handed pitching since June 1.

San Diego has averaged 6.3 runs over its last 10 games. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis and Ty France all are in a groove and should have success against 35-year-old lefty Martin Perez, who is returning from the injured list. This is his first appearance since July 5. The Padres have the starting pitching edge behind Michael King. Back San Diego to improve to 5-1 versus Atlanta.

Tampa snapped a five-game losing streak by beating the Blue Jays 12-2 and 7-1 so far. The Rays’ bats are way hotter over the last couple weeks; for example, their road OPS is .802, compared to the .562 home mark for the Blue Jays. Toronto has lost six of seven, scoring four runs over the last four games. We’ll side with Rays RHP Griffin Jax, who was knocked around his last time out, snapping a run of seven straight outings allowing three runs or less. He’ll go five innings then give way to a hot bullpen.

Don't think much of Cleveland, but Jose Ramirez was activated off the injured list today so that helps as he's in the lineup. Two key Twins guys in Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers are not -- they lead all of the team's position players in WAR. Minny pitcher Bailey Ober has a 6.90 road ERA. Ramirez and a few other Guardians hit him well career. The Twins have lost four straight, all by multiple runs.

The Dodgers offense is in a great spot here against Aaron Nola, after scoring just two runs last night which was enough to win. I played Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs for one unit and if they can score at least five runs, I like them to win too. Nola possesses a .350 xwOBA against lefties and Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, and Tucker are all in the order tonight. I was worried about a watered down lineup but with the normal starters in, I'm taking the over 4.5 runs and 0.5u on LA to win. Eric Lauer has four straight quality starts and will face a Phillies offense that's been league average at best vs. lefties this year, don't love him but he's been fine.

The LA Dodgers are a team that typically responds off a loss and a low production at the plate. The last four instances they have scored one run or been shutout, they have followed up with 7, 8, 12, and 15 runs. They’ve also won all seven starts with Eric Lauer on the mound since trading for him from Toronto. That gives us some value to back the Phillies as a rare home underdog, in what will be a hot evening in Philadelphia. Back the Phillies to gain another win over the Dodgers.

DraftKings. Slade Cecconi has allowed at least five hits in 14/19 games this season, including six in just 67 pitches against the Twins two weeks ago. With a .281 average allowed (.267 xBA) and low walk rate (7.2%) Cecconi allows a base knock every 3.9 batters faced, or every 14.8 pitches thrown. The Twins have quietly been one of the better hitting teams all season, with a .255 average against righties (.260 over the last 30 days) with a low walk rate. They profile excellently against Cecconi as a team, specifically hitting .342 against cutters this season - the Guardian’s righty’s best pitch.

Cleveland has won seven of nine, including the first two in this series vs. the Twins. Respectively, its OPS home/road splits and vs. right-handers are roughly 250 and 180 points higher than Minnesota’s since July 7. The Guardians also have an overall pitching edge – Slade Cecconi made it only 3.2 innings last time out vs. these Twins, but in June had a 1.88 ERA in five starts. Bailey Ober went five solid frames vs. the Guardians on June 9 but had a 5.97 June ERA. We'll look for longer trends to straighten out.

Since Eric Lauer was acquired by the Dodgers in May, Los Angeles has won each of his seven appearances. His 2026 ERA in Toronto was 6.69, which has been more than halved (3.12) in L.A. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has been awful for the Phillies and it's probably getting time for them to cut bait. Philadelphia has lost 5 of his last 6 starts and the right hander sports a 5.68 ERA this season. I think these trends continue and the Dodgers take the series with a win on Wednesday.

DraftKings. Merrill Kelly has struggled this season, both overall and in the strikeout department. However, the veteran has acquitted himself better of late (2.12 ERA in three July starts), and has cleared this line in 6/7 home outings. He’ll face an A’s lineup that’s struck out 26.6% of the time over the last 30 days against righties, and has struggled in that department away from home all season. The A’s also have close to a 30% whiff rate against righty changeups this season, which is Kelly’s primary pitch.

No Juan Soto for the Mets is mostly what this is. I'm sure all the NY guys are itching to return home from this six-game trip to open the second half. That's when trades likely begin. Starting pitcher Christian Scott (3-1, 2.87 ERA) has been quite good but doesn't go deep into games. It appears every Brewers regular is in with the team off Thursday. That means the entire excellent bullpen should be ready behind Logan Henderson (3-1, 2.97 ERA).

I'm a little spiteful on Unders right now and will bump this up to 9.5, but Bobby Witt Jr. is out again for the Royals. They have totaled nine total runs in the past three without him (he did pinch-hit in one). Jac Caglianone is sitting today, too, so that's a big power source gone. The Giants just aren't a good offensive team, totaling 11 runs in a four-game skid. Royals starter Seth Lugo has a 3.60 home ERA. Winds are blowing in about 9 mph.

Mitch Keller's matchup is horrendous today, as he's struggled with left handed batters to the tune of a .283 average and 11 home runs allowed in 63 innings. The WHIP is 1.44 and allowing all those baserunners against a lefty heavy order is likely to yield some runs at some point. Facing what is projecting to be seven left handed hitters in this Yankees order, it will be a major accomplishment for him to pitch well here in a day game in Yankee Stadium vs. this lefty heavy lineup. Yankees F5 TT over 2.5 runs as well.