Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Utah burned us on Sunday in Vancouver, but this is the end of a three-game trip and third different city since Friday -- and No. 1 netminder Karel Vejmelka has played a ton of games in a row. I'm not saying he's gonna sit here, but he has to be gassed. After a bit of a rough stretch, the Oilers have won B2B games as they try to stay on Vegas' heels for the Pacific title. I think this is low enough where we don't need to play -1 and risk a push. Leon Draisaitl is on a career-high 18-game points streak, longest in the league this season. Edmonton is 2-0 in the season series.
When it's two teams with nothing to play for in a professional sport, I will almost always default to the home team winning, and we don't even need there here -- just a one-goal Hawks loss. Seattle is well below .500 on the road, and Chicago has been generally more competitive with newly acquired Spencer Knight in net as he should be Tuesday. Knight has a 2.23 GAA since the trade from Florida. Because it's the front of a B2B, decent chance we get Kraken No. 2 Philipp Grubauer in this one, and he has been brutal at 7-15-1 with a 3.61 GAA on the year. I'd really like this if it's him. If it's Joey Daccord, well, we fade Seattle again Wednesday at Minnesota.
It was just announced that Dustin Wolf is starting tonight for Calgary in Boston, which should mean backup Dan Vladar on Tuesday in New York. We fade Dan Vladar (8-11-6, .893 SV) this season almost without fail. This likely closes north of -200 by puck drop tomorrow -- and always a chance a key Flames player is hurt tonight -- so why taking this now. I already see one book at -210.
Calgary has won just two of eight and might have to use not-usually-good backup Dan Vladar on Monday just to give solid Dustin Wolf a breather, and we'd likely up the wager a little if so, but I'm fine if it's Wolf. The Flames also are without a pair of top-six forwards in Mikael Backlund (24 points) and Connor Zary (also 24 points). Toronto easily won in Calgary 6-3 on Feb. 4 behind a William Nylander hat trick.
Was tempted to play Bruins +1.5 at -260 because I don't think they should be getting +1.5 at home in this matchup, but I learned my lesson doing the same thing on the Wild over the weekend. But I will go to 1.5 units here simply as Buffalo is playing out the string on another playoff-free season and without regulars such as JJ Peterka (51 points), Josh Norris (35 points) and Jiri Kulich (19 points). Boston has been a disappointment but is still in the WC mix. Netminder Joonas Korpisalo allowed just a goal in a home win over Buffalo a few months ago, and Korpisalo has been vastly better in Boston with a 2.27 GAA. I'd like the Under if offered 6.5.
Big game in the West playoff race as these clubs try for a WC spot -- the Canucks hold the last one and the HC is four points back. Tend to think if it's tied with 5:00 left, both will play for OT and the point. Vancouver has won B2B games not coincidentally since superstar Quinn Hughes returned from injury. Utah netminder Karel Vejmelka is having a fine season but perhaps tiring with a heavy workload as he has lost three of four and allowed 12 goals in that span with am .871 SV. The only reason Utah is favored in my opinion is that Vancouver is in the second of a B2B but it didn't have to travel after an easy win vs. Chicago.
All-Star forward Mikko Rantanen should be really fired up today in Colorado because the Avalanche traded him to Carolina in late January -- then eventually flipped to Dallas earlier this month -- and he never wanted to leave Colorado. Apparently the Avs didn't think they would be able to re-sign him in free agency this summer. I don't really play anytime goalscorers because that's just too hard to predict, but you could probably justify it here. I'll be fine with a secondary assist for Mikko.
We in part faded Vegas today in Buffalo because I thought it would be backup Ilya Samsonov in net. It wasn't but we cashed anyways, and it surely will be him Sunday in Detroit. Samsonov's road GAA of 3.20 is nearly a goal higher than his home mark, and it's a natural trap spot for Vegas in its fourth different city since Tuesday and to conclude a road trip. Chasing a WC spot, the Red Wings basically have to go all-out the rest of the way. This is actually a fairly cheap price as some books are listing the Wings as high as -215 at +1.5, so that's why I want to grab it now.
This is a huge number, but hear me out: There's no way the Wild should be getting +1.5 at home against St. Louis. Especially with Blues backup Joel Hofer in net, top blueliner Colton Parayko still out injured and Wild No. 1 netminder Filip Gustavsson (1.77 GAA this month) starting. So I'm gonna pounce on this mistake by BetMGM even at this price because it feels like a gift. I also like the Alt Under 7.5 if looking for ways to bring this down some but am totally fine with this solo as I'll be truly surprised if Minnesota loses by 2 at home short of an empty-netter getting us.
I almost feel like I'm cheating on the Blue Jackets here in not playing them +1.5 at home as we have done almost all season and nearly can afford a Kia -- not that I want one -- because of it. But most of those wins have been with Columbus No. 1 Elvis Merzlikins in net and he's getting today off. Backup Daniil Tarasov has a 3.54 GAA in 16 outings. In addition, the Rangers welcome back star defenseman and former Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox from injured reserve. New York is 7-3-3 in its last 13 road games and since Jan. 5, the team's 17 road points are the fourth most in the NHL.
Third of a four-game road trip for the Knights and the front of a B2B. They burned us in Columbus on Thursday behind a shutout from Adin Hill, but that should mean it's Ilya Samsonov's turn today, and he's a decent downgrade -- especially on the road with a 3.20 GAA. I'm OK if it's Hill but prefer it not be. Also a weird start time for the Vegas guys. Wouldn't say love this, but I think it's a very fair price at +1.5.
Not completely sure why the Predators are favored on the road considering they have a worse overall record than Anaheim and are 8-20-4 away. Yeah, they have won four straight overall I suppose. But star blueliner Roman Josi remains out. Anaheim won the lone meeting this season at home, 5-2 on Jan. 25. The Ducks have some faint playoff hopes. The Preds have none.
This smells like a 5-4 game to me with Devils backup Josh Allen in net (he runs very hot and cold) and top blueliner Dougie Hamilton still out. If the Oilers score at least four goals, I have to think Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gets at minimum an assist playing on the top line with Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman. RNH also has 17 power-play points.
I used to do some trading at offshore books, and I mention this because I find it funny that the books are so inflexible/stick to the numbers obtusely (insert favorite Family Guy skit ever). I get it, most of the statistics say Vegas should be a big road favorite in Columbus. But I probably don't have to tell you that the Blue Jackets have "bought daddy" a new kitchen at this point for me in 2024-25 as they are a cash machine at Nationwide Arena. This is why AI will never fully take over capping. It just sees the better team on paper. Columbus home +1.5 will be a no-brainer play the rest of the season barring weird lineups, etc.