Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Again, there might be a few NHL playoff games I will not play Under 6.5, but all I can say to you is play them frequently if offered. We shall lose a couple on 3-3 regulation, I'm sure, (why my CBS Sports parlays always punched to 7.5), but 2-0 Saturday Unders and they weren't even close. You will come out ahead and the sportsbooks will stop offering U6.5s. Certainly can't promise anything here but I'm surprised not 6. Books don't like pushes, either, but you get my point. The Knights' Carter Hart has a 1.66 GAA in April.
Likely a bonkers atmosphere in Buffalo on Sunday (diehard hockey fans are crazy anyways, and I mean that as an utter compliment) as the franchise plays its first postseason game since 2011. Believe I still had a BlackBerry then; highly recommend the BlackBerry movie, by the way, about its staggering fall. Very good. Ideally, the Sabres aren't too amped up because that can backfire but Boston was nine below .500 away during the RS if we include OT/SO losses. Jeremy Swayman's road splits were considerably worse. Buffalo was 26-10-5 on home ice.
If there is a total of 6.5 in the Stanley Cup playoffs, I am almost surely playing Under and so should you. Really that simple. Think have made that clear enough now, so won't repeat. This is my favorite first-round series and would a 4-4 tie at the end of regulation surprise me? It would not. But neither would 2-2. Two of the three openers Saturday were easy Under 6.5 winners. And funnily enough, the one I wasn't even offered in Wild-Stars (6) landed Over, so that worked out nicely. Pretty flukish, though, and I'll have a SGP on the CBS Sports betting site for that Game 2 on Monday.
Regular season? Not touching this. To quote Jerry Lundegaard (Fargo -- amazingly good): "Heck you mean?" In the playoffs basically even money to just lose in overtime? Yep, I am taking that. I could give you many examples of No. 1 overall seeds where they kinda coasted to the end and were sloppy in Game 1 of a playoff series because they hadn't played a meaningful game in weeks. Presidents' Trophy winners like the Avs oddly have had first-round issues in recent years. Thing is, +1.5 is so cheap I think upping to +2 to avoid empty-net pain would be a great idea.
Is every Under 6.5 going to win in the Stanley Cup playoffs? Heck no. But most of them. Just how the sport works. I think the "defense wins championships (1985 Bears)" is a bit of a cliche, but it's absolute truth in the NHL. And if you are new to hockey betting, you aren't going to see many 6.5s as we move forward -- again short of maybe Colorado and Edmonton games. Philly's Dan Vladar has been one of the NHL's best goalies in April with a 1.81 GAA. Not the same faith in Pittsburgh's Stuart Skinner, but he fared well vs. the Flyers with a 2.25 GAA in three starts. I'll be doing something with alt U7.5 as well most likely ...
In my opinion, if you get a 6.5 total in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and we won't all that often at least historically, you take the Under short of maybe games involving the Oilers or Avalanche. Things generally slow way down in the postseason. I'll bet this disappears eventually so why jumping now. Regular season, I don't play this as both are Top 10 offenses.
Last day of the RS makes for some unusual decisions -- road ML favorite. The Kings are in the playoffs but have a shot to avoid Colorado in Round 1 with a win and a bit of help elsewhere. I probably would have passed anyways because Calgary has been so profitable at home. But the Flames are not opting to go with either of their two main goalies but giving Arsenii Sergeev his NHL debut. So weird, I was almost named Arsenii. Sergeev is not a top prospect and struggled in the ECHL this year at 5-13-12 with a 3.29 goals against average and .898 SV. If LA decides to not push and starts ruling guys out, forget this, but don't know why it would.
This game is meaningless but fun for hockey fans to see Macklin Celebrini vs. Connor Bedard, the 2024 and 2023 No. 1 overall NHL Draft picks, respectively. Celebrini is a bit ahead right now but also surrounded by a better roster. He also got to play on Team Canada and Bedard didn't. My point being, Bedard will be fired up as he has been a bit surpassed (so far) and was the more touted guy. The Hawks should score plenty on Yaroslav Askarov (3.68 road GAA). Obviously more likely Bedard has a helper than goal (+145) -- he has gone nine straight games without a goal.
Not sure why, but it appears the Bolts are trying tonight despite being locked into second in the Atlantic and opening the playoffs vs. Montreal -- easily the first-round series I will care about most. Andrei Vasilevskiy is allegedly playing. And pretty much all healthy starters as of now. You don't start Vasy and put a bunch of scrubs out there. Is this some must play 15 minutes Nikola Jokic reason? Dunno but maybe some individual things like Nikita Kucherov trying to win a third straight Art Ross Trophy or Vasy trying for a rare 40 wins. If this were any team but the Rangers, I still might pass. But they don't want to accidentally win and potentially slip down the lottery ladder a spot.
Hockey has been a little overwhelming of late, but keep getting what seem like these great opportunities (that definitely aren't all cashing). Figured the Pens would rest some guys tonight locked into their seed, but they are going all-quit. I can probably name four of the nine guys on the top-three lines. Just a bunch of nobodies. The Blues are eliminated and in the second of a back-to-back so the -210 moneyline is a bit silly in a meaningless game. But we'll roll with the -1 option in the home and season finale.
Colorado is the Presidents' Trophy winner and just played a high-level, playoff-type matchup in Edmonton on Monday that went to a shootout. So it would be utter malpractice by the coaching staff to play a single notable soul in the regular-season road finale. I definitely thought about Flames moneyline straight up but they are so good ATS at home (26-13 ATS) that I'll just take this to still win in OT regardless and add a bit more to the wager. Plus, I'm not 100% sure what the Avs do.
This was -115 last night and dang it I almost punched when the Flyers beat Carolina and clinched a playoff spot while locking in their seed. Montreal still could earn second in the Atlantic with a win and some help Wednesday but otherwise would open on the road in the playoffs. Think you have to try for that. The Flyers will face the rival Penguins this weekend regardless, so I'd think it's Sitdown Central tonight even in the home RS finale. But since I'm not sure, only a half. Just wish I had done the half at -115.