Matt's Picks (1 Live)
I would crush Under 6.5 if offered, but I'd also crush a grape Kool-Aid right now. Oddly sounds refreshing. I don't think I've had KA in 30 years, not sure why it's in my dome. But you better believe it's in my Amazon cart right now. Along with Laffy Taffy. Pretty sure I will need to see the dentist. The Kraken can't score as it is and one of their top forwards, Jared McCann, is in doubt. I often like to back teams ahead of a long road trip because that final game at home takes on a bit more significance and that's where the Mammoth are. Not playing great otherwise. Probably pushes but therein is the beauty of -1.
Tuesday's Oilers OT loss hurt. They were rolling entering and facing basically some Sabres roadkill in the second of a B2B for Buffalo on the road. I watched (do we say watched or streamed these days?) that on ESPN+. You could see the Edmonton players getting outworked, taking for granted first two periods. Then third, they just went "Kirk: Energize." That's the fun team I like to back, flying around the rink and scoring at will. Alas, Edmonton blew an epic rally and lost in OT. Sadly, goaltending matters. That's hockey folks. But I'm going right back at -1 with the visitors in the second of a B2B.
Purely a goalie play as it's the NHL debut of Montreal's Jacob Fowler in net. The 21-year-old is likely the team's future in net and has been good in the AHL, but facing future Hall of Famers Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson, etc., is a whole different level. Habs forward Jake Evans (4G, 4A) is out. Pittsburgh's Tristan Jarry is 4-0-1 with a 2.47 GAA and .915 save percentage over his last six appearances. He's 3-0-0 at home this year.
That Tampa Bay is favored at NJ is a little strange to me without Andrei Vasilevskiy. Plus, future Hall of Fame blueliner Victor Hedman is iffy tonight. Not a fan of backup goalie Jonas Johansson (he has been good of late, I have to admit), but that might be because the first love of my life would play the Jonas Brothers non-stop. I'm not saying that's why it ended, but I'm not saying that's not why. She's now like the Queen of Belgium, so I guess upgraded. Poor King. New Jersey is definitely not the same without Jack Hughes and had lost five straight until Tuesday's 4-3 win at Ottawa. Feels like a "get-right" win to me and I expect a mini-run now.
A rare total play Wednesday as Chicago isn't scoring much of late with just six goals in the past four games. But netminder Spencer Knight has a 2.43 home GAA. The Rangers are among the worst offensive team in the NHL at 2.65 goals per game. Netminder Igor Shesterkin has allowed three or fewer goals in seven straight overall and has been better on the road with a 2.29 GAA. The Rangers' past five overall have all landed Under this total. It's the only 6.5 on our board and juiced, so it may flip soon.
Was not getting -1 earlier so that's nice as the Oilers suddenly are rampaging, winning their past two over Seattle and Winnipeg by a combined score of 15-6. Leon Draisaitl (416) is one goal away from tying Glenn Anderson for the third most in franchise history. Draisaitl has 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in his last 11 games, including points in nine of his last 10 appearances. Buffalo has lost three straight by multiple goals, including 7-4 last night in Calgary, and is without one of its top forwards in Jason Zucker (9G, 9A). If logic means anything at all, this should certainly not lose and I'm tempted to just hammer the moneyline. But logic rarely does mean much.
Columbus paid me more last season than any NHL team and probably has burned me more than any this season. But it seems like the club is regressing to its talent level having dropped two straight and six of eight. Also a third game in four nights: Miami/Washington DC/Raleigh. Sounds like Spirit Airlines when you are just trying to fly from Miami non-stop to Charlotte. Never ends up being your original itinerary and end up at the Die Hard 2 airport in nowheresville. But you get what you pay for in life. Carolina might be the East's best club. And I'm so thrilled that the REAL Canes made the College Football Playoff that I'm just gonna bet all things Canes for a while. Candy, etc.
50-50 game in my mind and we get the home team with OT insurance. Natural tricky spot for the Wild at the end of a four-game trip over six days. They have lost three of four overall. Hopefully some urgency for the Kraken on a season-high five-game skid, but they would have at least pushed at +1 in three. Seattle must improve the a penalty kill of 64.8% that is last in the league, and the team has given up seven goals in the last eight PKs over the last three games.
You'd think the Blue Jackets players would be pretty gassed after a wild back-and-forth 7-6 overtime loss at Florida on Saturday and then obviously traveling. The team has lost five of seven overall. Washington, with the East's best goal differential, has been off since Friday and won six of seven. Goalie Logan Thompson has been lights out all season and is 2-0 against Columbus with just two total goals allowed on 58 shots.
Wasn't on my dance card but Evgeni Malkin is out for the Pens. He's not a Top 10 NHL player these days but certainly still a difference-maker. Good injury news for the Stars with forward Matt Duchene and blueliner Nils Lundkvist activated off IR. Stars goalie Jake Oettinger has allowed a single goal on 48 shots in two starts this month and not lost since Nov. 18. Dallas has won four of the past five in the series.
A goalie-mostly play here as the Jets will be starting 22-year-old rookie Thomas Milic, who has a 3.65 GAA in two NHL appearances. He has not seen an offense like Edmonton's yet with Connor McDavid & Co. Winnipeg is 2-4 since Connor Hellebuyck went down injured. And maybe the inconsistent Oilers finally found their mojo Thursday by scoring nine in a rout of Seattle. "I feel like we haven't really had that all year, so it feels good to get a couple as a group," McDavid said post-game (he had a hat trick). "Hopefully, guys are feeling good about themselves and can build on it."
I haven't done a total in a while. I was ready to smash Lightning -1 if Andrei Vasilevskiy was in net after sitting Thursday, but he's out again. So why would I then do an Under with kinda iffy backup Jonas Johansson? Because Nikita Kucherov is out too. And that's obviously significant offensively. The Isles have a few key guys out as well (was part of my -1 plan). Goalie Ilya Sorokin, always one of my favorites, has been better away with a 2.39 GAA. Half-unit simply as totals often perplex me but short of 3-3 to OT I feel decent about it.
At this price, have to. May not get Rangers +1.5 cheaper the rest of the season (already played in Denver). We won fading the Avs at the other New York team on Thursday as they were routed at the Islanders. At some point, the Avalanche had to come back to earth. The Blueshirts' Igor Shesterkin has allowed three goals or fewer in six straight starts, going 5-1-0 over that stretch with a 2.18 GAA and .922 save percentage.
Devils as home dogs, that we will not see often so really an auto-play. Pricy but, again, I am literally 0-174 in overtime or extra innings (I swear that number does not feel wrong). I am like the DiMaggio of awful. So it's worth it to me to take the +1 and just avoid late pain. Seriously, when I play +1 in an NHL game, I don't even watch OT or the shootout because I know for a fact what will happen. Perhaps life surprises me here.