We are 19th! That's all that is at stake in this one Sunday with both clubs set for relegation regardless. Wolverhampton has not won a single road match all season with seven total goals scored -- and hasn't scored in its past three away -- is really all this is. Burnley has all of two wins at home. A scoreless draw probably would be fitting.
This became a meaningless game for Arsenal on Tuesday when Man City was held to a draw against Bournemouth, handing the Gunners the Premier League title for the first time in a couple of decades. So why risk injury to key guys Sunday on the road in the season finale six days ahead of the Champions League final? Which is something that Arsenal has never won. I sure wouldn't play anyone much if at all. But, hey, a one-goal win works. Crystal Palace is unbeaten in its past nine in all competitions at Selhurst Park.
This likely comes down to whether Burnley scores. Arsenal has the EPL's best home defensive mark with just 11 goals allowed. The Gunners have seen four or more total goals scored in only three home matches this season. Burnley has scored 20 goals away. When the teams played in early November, it was a 2-0 Arsenal road win. I'm thinking/hoping 3-0 here. Our model basically has it 2-1. Works for me. Half unit.
I will miss the EPL as it winds down for the season. Starting to get the ups and downs of that league. Both sides lock in Champions League spots for next season with a win. The Reds have a gazillion player availability questions under a possible lame-duck manager. I love British headlines. Liverpool manager Arne Slot "Might Survive the Sack." Might we all. The Brits just know how to talk (After Life, Fleabag, Catastrophe, early Black Mirror). Home finale for Villa. Draw works just fine.
Leeds United is the bit better side but thanks to certain results over the weekend, it is guaranteed a spot in the Premier League next season. What's the motivation here ahead of the home finale next? Second-leading scorer Noah Okafor (eight goals) is out. Tottenham got a massive, massive break Sunday when a West Ham late tying goal was overturned vs. Arsenal, so now Spurs control their destiny to not be relegated. They are on nine-game winless streak at home so clearly due. DNB would be preferred, but that's hugely priced so just a half at this. Spurs have won five straight EPL games in this series and six straight in it at home.
I would not go lower than this and probably will kick it up to the Asian number of 1.25. I completely realize Arsenal is still battling for the EPL title, but there is no way there is not a bit of a letdown for a while, anyways, off that win over Atleti earlier this week to reach the Champions League final for the first time in a couple of decades. The Gunners can't stop pushing with Man City right on their tails, and at first was going to play -0.5 but it was really pricy and I talked myself out of it. This may well push (hence the 1.25), but I'm looking for a draw. West Ham has mega-motivation: Avoiding relegation. Home game of season.
One reason why I prefer the Premier League to all others is simply I can, you know, understand what they are saying. I can go read the BBC or Premier League site, etc. Other leagues I'm basically at the mercy of Google translate. You have no idea the spam I get now having gone to all these German/Spanish/Italian/French sites. Think I accidentally bought some paella or a Volkswagen or something (I'd be cool with the paella). Believe City wins here -- Everton hasn't won in the series since 2017 -- but a very fair price to just lose by a goal for the hosts. It's Man City's first-ever visit to Everton's new home of Hill Dickinson Stadium.
I probably should stop pressing my luck (stop, stop, whammy!) after a 2-0 morning in the EPL so will limit this to a half but may as well ride the gravy train while it lasts. Villa is playing for Europe next season and Spurs to not be relegated. The visitors are missing a ton of guys due to injury and the like. Penultimate home game of the season for Villa, which has been slumping but would be pretty safe for Europe with a win.
Ding, ding again. Outlier number. All of our books have -1 otherwise. The Cherries haven’t lost a Premier League match since January. Almost a throwaway game for CP as it can't really move up domestically and has a much bigger match vs. Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Conference League semis on Thursday.
Whomever invented Draw No Bet -- and I actually did look but could not find a definitive answer -- is my uncomfortable hug buddy. You know, wanna lean in but that'd be weird. Feels like a super-generous price here. Major European qually on the line. United won the reverse in October and weren't even good then. May well draw but I don't see a loss.
Brentford is looking to finish the Premier League double over Man U for the first time in 89 years, but the visitors enter having drawn in six straight matches in all competitions. Man U was stunned in its last home game on April 13 but hasn't lost consecutive home games all season. Top defender Harry Maguire is back from suspension. Wish DNB was reasonably priced but it's not.
Soon as I opened my trap, I got a soccer lesson Friday. That's fine, only a couple half-unit plays as I figured a course correction might be coming. I've purged, so time to win again. I will say this probably pushes but I simply can't bet a draw. Tried it once and it was like showering in the dark: disorienting. So DNB it is Saturday. West Ham is fighting to not be relegated and the visitors don't have a heck of a lot to play for.
On a bit of a soccer heater, and I have no idea why. Guess do well out of international breaks like an NFL bye week/MLB All-Star break. I'll have to remember that next season (barely remember Monday, so unlikely). No right to lose this game because in a rarity, I can play either side at +0.25 Asian via our books -- basically a pick'em on the moneyline. Hurts me to fade Nottingham simply for the movie Notting Hill, but yep gotta do it. Sorry, Tricky Trees. The Black Cats -- this is the USA's problem: Cougars? Tigers? Get creative with nicknames -- have lost only three league home games. Sunderland still has a shot at European qualification but must get the three points here.
Big one Tuesday for both clubs' European chances next season. Chelsea is in utter free-fall; if we throw out an FA Cup win over an overmatched lower-tier side Port Vale early this month, the Blues have lost five in a row vs. peers (one Champions League game, four EPL) and not scored a goal. For sure out here is rising young star Estevao (2G, 2A in 22 EPL games), and leading scorer Joao Pedro (14G, 5A in 28 games) is in major doubt after missing the last game. Brighton is unbeaten in its past four league games, and the Seagulls have won two straight EPL games vs. Chelsea, as many as they had won in their previous 19 matches in the series.
Arguably the most important worldwide sporting event today, and I'm going to watch in a non-major soccer event rarity: Man City keeps its Premier League title hopes alive (surging) with a win, and Arsenal all but locks it up with one (slumping). Everything seems to line up for the Sky Blues. The Gunners are on a short week after a UCL match and banged up led by second-leading scorer Bukayo Saka (that's fun to say) sitting out. Arsenal has scored three goals in the past five in all competitions. And for some reason, thank you BBC, leading scorer Viktor Gyökeres is not starting. I may pummel Man City DNB simply as like protection but I'm not gonna post that at -270. This is totally fine.