I was looking at this regardless but then I saw the excellent Martin Green played it, and that clinched for me. Everton was good to us earlier this week vs. Wolves in the EFL Cup. Newly promoted Ipswich Town, which sounds like a sandwich spread that I absolutely refuse to eat even if starving (welcome to my growing up Spam nightmare), has been pretty good so far but is coming back to earth a bit in allowing a whopping 13 goals in its past four in all competitions if my math is right. But I forgot to convert to pound sterling perhaps ...

I'll be honest in that I fancy a draw here but would never bet on that result. It's the first league match of the season at Elland Road under the lights. Both teams have found the net in all five of their overall matches this term. Leeds has avoided loss in 11 of its past 12 league games dating to last season. Newcastle was pegged to struggle under new manager Matthias Jaissle but also yet to lose in EPL play. The Magpies have allowed the most shots in the league (61), however.

Like road teams about as much as I like cooties and wouldn't touch this at +2, but yeah ... first of all I enjoy newly promoted Hull City's logo that I'm just seeing. Looks like a drunken leopard similar to my high school's. So I feel an immediate bond. Although I have to say disappointed in the "Tigers" nickname. Come on, most Euro soccer teams have great ones. Hull City is probably playing a bit over its skis unbeaten in three and not having allowed a single goal. Goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis is a dawg! Chelsea has never lost in this series and surely will not but also just played Wednesday in the Carabao Cup. Most of the Brit punters have this 2-0 or 2-1.

Chelsea lost a pretty good player in Enzo Fernandez in the recently closed transfer market to Man City. And Moises Caicedo is likely out here injured. The Blues have been outstanding early on offensively but also have allowed five goals in their two EPL matches. I think only a drew gets us -- DNB too pricy -- as Chelsea has a single win in the past 16 in the series in all competitions. Declan Rice should go for Arsenal in this London Derby after leaving the last match injured.

Excited to see the Premier League back -- did well on that last season. Think I prefer Euro soccer now to college basketball, which is dumbfounding. Two years ago Sevy needs to slap current Sevy. Yes I am talking in first person to make a point. Spurs looked wretched in their EPL opener but then terrific in trouncing some team I never heard of that sounds like a pack of smokes in the Carabao Cup. I'm not sure I expect this to win, honestly, but if I get a reasonable DNB price (like a cupcake covered in cherries with a shot of Jager love it so much) on a home team I'm probably taking it and just let the cards fall where they may.

Some of our other books are already at the -225 range for this Saturday Premier League match so I'll grab it now. It's the home opener for Bournemouth, which pushed Man City to the limit in the season opener away. The Cherries haven't lost their home opener (4W, 4D) since 2017. They own more wins over Everton all-time with nine than any other EPL foe. The Toffees, meanwhile, are winless in eight at Bournemouth (two draws) and have dropped their first EPL road game each of the past four seasons -- blanked in three.

Thank you Brentford for the profitable start to the Premier League on Saturday. Aston Villa finished fourth last season but lost second-leading scorer Morgan Rogers (10G, 6A) to Chelsea. And leading scorer Ollie Watkins (16G, 3A) is out amid a push from Al Hilal to get him as Watkins apparently wants to go. Villa's big offseason addition was Johan Manzambi, but he's not fit from a World Cup injury. So really BHA by default, and home teams in their openers have been cashing for us. The Seagulls are unbeaten in four this season: three friendlies and a Conference League qualifier.

Good start to the European season Sunday with a La Liga cash and the Premier League kicks off next weekend -- that was my best league a season ago. Tottenham barely avoided relegation in 2025-26 and has a new manager, while Brentford finished ninth in the table. The sides drew at Brentford last season. Spurs have a few player availability concerns (Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert and Dejan Kulusevski among them) even in an opener.

This became a meaningless game for Arsenal on Tuesday when Man City was held to a draw against Bournemouth, handing the Gunners the Premier League title for the first time in a couple of decades. So why risk injury to key guys Sunday on the road in the season finale six days ahead of the Champions League final? Which is something that Arsenal has never won. I sure wouldn't play anyone much if at all. But, hey, a one-goal win works. Crystal Palace is unbeaten in its past nine in all competitions at Selhurst Park.

We are 19th! That's all that is at stake in this one Sunday with both clubs set for relegation regardless. Wolverhampton has not won a single road match all season with seven total goals scored -- and hasn't scored in its past three away -- is really all this is. Burnley has all of two wins at home. A scoreless draw probably would be fitting.

This likely comes down to whether Burnley scores. Arsenal has the EPL's best home defensive mark with just 11 goals allowed. The Gunners have seen four or more total goals scored in only three home matches this season. Burnley has scored 20 goals away. When the teams played in early November, it was a 2-0 Arsenal road win. I'm thinking/hoping 3-0 here. Our model basically has it 2-1. Works for me. Half unit.

I will miss the EPL as it winds down for the season. Starting to get the ups and downs of that league. Both sides lock in Champions League spots for next season with a win. The Reds have a gazillion player availability questions under a possible lame-duck manager. I love British headlines. Liverpool manager Arne Slot "Might Survive the Sack." Might we all. The Brits just know how to talk (After Life, Fleabag, Catastrophe, early Black Mirror). Home finale for Villa. Draw works just fine.

Leeds United is the bit better side but thanks to certain results over the weekend, it is guaranteed a spot in the Premier League next season. What's the motivation here ahead of the home finale next? Second-leading scorer Noah Okafor (eight goals) is out. Tottenham got a massive, massive break Sunday when a West Ham late tying goal was overturned vs. Arsenal, so now Spurs control their destiny to not be relegated. They are on nine-game winless streak at home so clearly due. DNB would be preferred, but that's hugely priced so just a half at this. Spurs have won five straight EPL games in this series and six straight in it at home.

I would not go lower than this and probably will kick it up to the Asian number of 1.25. I completely realize Arsenal is still battling for the EPL title, but there is no way there is not a bit of a letdown for a while, anyways, off that win over Atleti earlier this week to reach the Champions League final for the first time in a couple of decades. The Gunners can't stop pushing with Man City right on their tails, and at first was going to play -0.5 but it was really pricy and I talked myself out of it. This may well push (hence the 1.25), but I'm looking for a draw. West Ham has mega-motivation: Avoiding relegation. Home game of season.

One reason why I prefer the Premier League to all others is simply I can, you know, understand what they are saying. I can go read the BBC or Premier League site, etc. Other leagues I'm basically at the mercy of Google translate. You have no idea the spam I get now having gone to all these German/Spanish/Italian/French sites. Think I accidentally bought some paella or a Volkswagen or something (I'd be cool with the paella). Believe City wins here -- Everton hasn't won in the series since 2017 -- but a very fair price to just lose by a goal for the hosts. It's Man City's first-ever visit to Everton's new home of Hill Dickinson Stadium.