Soon as I opened my trap, I got a soccer lesson Friday. That's fine, only a couple half-unit plays as I figured a course correction might be coming. I've purged, so time to win again. I will say this probably pushes but I simply can't bet a draw. Tried it once and it was like showering in the dark: disorienting. So DNB it is Saturday. West Ham is fighting to not be relegated and the visitors don't have a heck of a lot to play for.
On a bit of a soccer heater, and I have no idea why. Guess do well out of international breaks like an NFL bye week/MLB All-Star break. I'll have to remember that next season (barely remember Monday, so unlikely). No right to lose this game because in a rarity, I can play either side at +0.25 Asian via our books -- basically a pick'em on the moneyline. Hurts me to fade Nottingham simply for the movie Notting Hill, but yep gotta do it. Sorry, Tricky Trees. The Black Cats -- this is the USA's problem: Cougars? Tigers? Get creative with nicknames -- have lost only three league home games. Sunderland still has a shot at European qualification but must get the three points here.
Big one Tuesday for both clubs' European chances next season. Chelsea is in utter free-fall; if we throw out an FA Cup win over an overmatched lower-tier side Port Vale early this month, the Blues have lost five in a row vs. peers (one Champions League game, four EPL) and not scored a goal. For sure out here is rising young star Estevao (2G, 2A in 22 EPL games), and leading scorer Joao Pedro (14G, 5A in 28 games) is in major doubt after missing the last game. Brighton is unbeaten in its past four league games, and the Seagulls have won two straight EPL games vs. Chelsea, as many as they had won in their previous 19 matches in the series.
Arguably the most important worldwide sporting event today, and I'm going to watch in a non-major soccer event rarity: Man City keeps its Premier League title hopes alive (surging) with a win, and Arsenal all but locks it up with one (slumping). Everything seems to line up for the Sky Blues. The Gunners are on a short week after a UCL match and banged up led by second-leading scorer Bukayo Saka (that's fun to say) sitting out. Arsenal has scored three goals in the past five in all competitions. And for some reason, thank you BBC, leading scorer Viktor Gyökeres is not starting. I may pummel Man City DNB simply as like protection but I'm not gonna post that at -270. This is totally fine.
Wanted to wait and see the result of our early Brentford DNB play before deciding on this, and the Bees did draw -- they dominated Fulham, so that's a bummer but why DNB rocks. Should Wolverhampton lose here and if Tottenham Hotspur beats Brighton & Hove Albion today, Wolves would officially be relegated for next season. Leeds got a stunning (and $$$ hurtful) win at Man United on Monday so I guess I have a small worry about a letdown but Leeds isn't fully clear of relegation worries itself yet. Probably would be with a win. Leeds has registered clean sheets in a quarter of all home league matches this season. Wolves has just seven road goals.
Brentford has drawn five straight matches in all competitions. The Bees have a shot at European qualification for the first time ever as a win would jump them temporarily into sixth in the Premier League. They have gotten 27 points at home, the eight-best mark in the EPL. Brentford lost the first meeting with Fulham this season and was beaten at home last campaign in the series but hasn't dropped consecutive home EPL matches vs. the Cottagers since 1998. Fulham has just four road wins all season. I'm expecting a draw Saturday morning (ET) but certainly won't bet that when given a very fair DNB number.
Pricy at -0.5, yes, but I'm frankly surprised even one of our books is offering me this for Monday's lone EPL matchup -- all of our others are -1, and if I can avoid a possible push of course I'm doing that. Man U is 22 points higher in the table than Leeds United and has just one loss in the past 10 under interim manager Michael Carrick (sure he gets the full-time gig). I highly doubt a loss here but yeah a draw might get us; they did draw in January. The Red Devils are unbeaten in their last 18 home league games against Leeds.
I don't understand this number whatsoever. Why is Sunderland only -104 on DNB at home against a bad Spurs team? Granted, Tottenham is trying to avoid relegation, but it's not like the Black Cats are just playing out the string. Two-unit play. Might draw, but I really don't see a loss. I see Buckets is on this too, so that's cool. Knows a lot more soccer than I do. But I got a slightly better price.
I have to say, this price for DNB kinda surprises me. Usually when a team higher in any table is at home, DNB is around -300 if not higher. Yet here we are on this. The Bees are higher in the table. Barely but are. Certainly doesn't mean everything, but I get a pass on a home draw? This reminds one of those times someone in England dips french fries into Guinness, and I am perplexed. I want to try but just can't.
So here is what I'd like to do: CBS give me a few days and I'll come up with a relegation pattern story and theoretical odds for all the major USA leagues. I have some in mind. Never, ever happen because just too much money tied up in TV contracts and it's not like the NFL or NBA teams have anywhere to be relegated to. This EPL game is like Wizards-Jazz in the NBA but one major difference: West Ham still can avoid being sent to Topeka or whatever the Topeka version (sorry Topekans) of England is. Wolves are getting Das Boot regardless. So I guess they can play with reckless abandon but will take our chances.
Definitely disappointed with Chelsea's effort in a 3-0 second-leg Champions League loss to PSG on Tuesday, but that the Blues are in a quick turnaround and have lost three straight in all competitions with just two goals scored has me on Everton, which is only two spots lower in the Premier League table and off since last Saturday. Since 2018, Chelsea has a single win at Everton. Key center-back Trevoh Chalobah was hurt vs. PSG and among Blues players out today. They are especially thin on defense as they eye their first double vs. the Toffees since 2016-17. I'm eyeing a draw.
Most of our books have 2.5 but similarly juiced Over. Man U is playing great but Bournemouth has the fourth-best defense at home in EPL action -- only Man City, Arsenal and Sunderland conceded fewer than the Cherries' 15 goals at Vitality Stadium. They have kept clean sheets in three of their last four league matches and allowed a total of two goals in the past five. They have drawn more games than anyone else in the league so far with 14 and 1-1 totally works today. I will say the clubs played a wild 4-4 reverse fixture Dec. 15, but I certainly don't expect 8 goals again. Our model has 2.9 goals scored. Bournemouth has scored one goal in its past four.
Draw No Bet would be nice, but not at -400. So we'll roll with this. Wolverhampton is by far the worst club in the league and might not have starting keeper Jose Sa -- although considering Wolves have a league-worst minus-30 goal differential, perhaps that's not a bad thing. As Brentford chases European football next season, this is a must-have three points. It won the reverse fixture 2-0 in December on a second-half brace from Keane Lewis-Potter. Some of our books have -1 and that doesn't interest me. The Bees have lost just one of their past six league matches. Wolves have yet to win a road match.
Sitting three points higher in the Premier League table, shouldn't Sunderland be a slight home favorite? Although, the Black Cats are off a terrible home loss Sunday in the FA Cup to lower-tier Port Vale. Noah Sadiki and Trai Hume were suspended for that but are back. Sunderland has won the past five at home vs. Brighton and unbeaten in nine overall in the series (two draws). Sunderland is sixth in the Premier League on home form this season, while Brighton is 16th on away form. Sunderland has conceded just 13 goals in 14 home league games; only Arsenal and Man City have allowed fewer on home soil.
Some of our other books are already north of -200 for this -- which I think it should be -- so we'll jump now. Again, no thoughts of a straight ML play at this number. Fulham is 15 points up on West Ham United, which is currently priced -150 to be relegated. The Cottagers, a streaky bunch, have won three straight in all competitions, while the Hammers were just blasted at Liverpool on the weekend. Fulham won the reverse fixture 1-0 at London Stadium in late December on a Raúl Jiménez 85th minute goal. He has eight EPL goals this season. WHU has totaled only 13 points in 14 away matches. Fulham has 26 in 14 at home.