Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Every time I see Nottingham Forest do I think of the movie Notting Hill? Absolutely. I am a rom-com guy; favorite movie of all time is When Harry Met Sally. I said to myself: "Self only if this dips below -200". Obviously it has. I truly can't express how much DNB opens up bets for me. Will definitely lose a few, but I doubt many. Forest hasn't won a league game since January. BHA won the reverse fixture, 2-0 on Nov. 30. The Fighting Hugh Grants are winless in their last five away league games against Brighton (three losses, two draws) since a 3-2 Championship victory in February 2015. We probably push but I doubt lose. The wonderfulness of DNB.
I didn't think I would play a draw to be honest and would much prefer Draw No Bet here but that's too expensive (-240). So let's take a shot. United has taken off under interim manager Michael Carrick and is unbeaten in its last nine Premier League games, its longest such run since a 14-game streak between January and May 2021. But four of those are draws, and forward Patrick Dorgu (three goals) is out. Everton has lost five of its past nine league home games with two of those draws. Defender Jake O'Brien is suspended. Can't beat the price anyways. Half unit.
This type of match is exactly why I was pining for Draw No Bet. I don't think Sunderland loses at home but not super confident wins, either. This takes the pressure off. Love it. Midfielder Granit Xhaka, which is about the manliest name ever, is expected back from injury for the Black Cats. He has missed the past four. Gotta get a few soccer plays in pre-USA vs. Canada.
Won't lie in that I don't love this, but it's our only book with 3.5 and my ears perk up when I see an outlier number. I don't always play them, but I always look deeper. Have learned a lot about soccer in the past few months on totals. If they score in first- or second-half stoppage time, I'm losing. If they don't, I usually win. Seems simple enough. Perhaps dump stoppage time? Guess we can't just eliminate dudes rolling around on the ground acting shot. I will say both these clubs are among the worst defensively in the Premier League, but none of West Ham's past three have approached this Over and neither have Bournemouth's past three. Our model has 2.9 goals scored.
Obviously a high number for Saturday, but I'm somewhat experimenting with Draw No Bet now that we have it. Brentford, unbeaten in four in all competitions (three wins), sits seventh in the EPL table and BHA 14th. No team in the Premier League has won fewer league matches than the Seagulls since December as their lone victory came against likely relegated Burnley. BHA has lost three in a row in all competitions and been clean sheeted in each. We pay the freight to loop that DNB in. Certainly don't expect to Bees to lose at home, but it's footy.
Very fair price considering Sunderland is unbeaten at home in the Premier League (7W, 5D). It's the longest run by a promoted side from the start of a top-flight season since 1977-78, when Nottingham Forest won all 21 en route to winning the title. Liverpool has some guys out led by No. 3 goals scorer and No. 3 assist man Dominik Szoboszlai. New signing Nilson Angulo is likely to make his first start with the Black Cats after the winger was brought over from Anderlecht. The teams played to a 1-1 draw at Anfield in December.
I'll throw a quarter down as we now have draw plays. Really this is just to let you know. I don't see a scenario where I bet a draw going forward. Well, maybe in the World Cup. Draw No Bet is on the way. Couple weeks.
Basically a wash on the early games so let's try and finish a bit ahead. I don't see Chelsea losing at home but obviously have the draw worry. Which, by the way, I am told we will have starting Wednesday for all leagues. Then Draw No Bet not too long after. That's the one I want, although I couldn't use here at a whopping -425. Only one of our books is offering -0.5 instead of -1 and as you can see it's a bit juiced. The Blues have taken off under new manager Liam Rosenior with 16 goals in their past six games and the only loss in that span at Arsenal. Joao Pedro has four goals in the past three.
Here's something I didn't expect to say waking up today or ever really: I agree with Buckets. Still don't know why that nickname since not a hoops guy? Will have to ask. That's like calling me, I don't know, Curling. I actually have played that a couple of times. Must be drinking to enjoy like darts, cards, billiards and axe throwing -- yep, that's a thing. Jon used this really long explanation as to why he's on Leeds United when one word would suffice regarding Arsenal: TRAP. Sure feels like one off the Champions League and ahead of a Carabao Cup second-leg semifinal vs. Chelsea. Would seem easy to overlook this Premier League match Saturday at a bad team. A one-goal win works just fine.
Chelsea has just one win in its past Premier League matches and winless in the previous three away. Midfielder Cole Palmer (four goals) is a doubt. Despite persistent rumors that he was on the way out, star Jean-Philippe Mateta (team-best eight league goals) will play for Palace. Defender/midfielder Daniel Munoz (second with three goals) will return from about a six-week injury absence. There have been three straight draws in the series.
Chelsea is winless in four games heading the short distance to Craven Cottage. The Blues announced a new manager this week in Liam Rosenior, but interim Calum McFarlane will remain in charge for this match (then the new guy takes over). Chelsea's only win away in the past six was edging League One Cardiff in the Carabao Cup. Fulham has just one loss in its past six overall and would move level in the table with its West London neighbors with a win.
Chelsea is in a bit of disarray having just fired manager Enzo Maresca and replacing him with Under-21s boss Calum McFarlane. You'd think there would be an adjustment period but I haven't really played competitive soccer since about the sixth grade on the "orange" team so. Man City should be duly motivated after an eight-game winning streak ended in a scoreless draw last time out. The gap to league leaders Arsenal is now four points, which makes this even more important. The Citizens won this last meeting 3-1. Our last 0.5 -- rest are -1 or even a few -1.5s.
I am still finding my way around soccer a bit. Been burned on a few +1s lately. Books got me. But obviously this is different. Is Arsenal really winning by two away? Certainly possible for the league leaders but appears Declan Rice will miss another match. Bournemouth stud Antoine Semenyo is expected to play despite reports linking him to an imminent transfer to Manchester City. If he does not play, punt this.
Always like +1 on a home team because obviously so few games are decided by multiple goals. I lean a push here but maybe we get lucky between two really struggling teams in the relegation zone. Newcastle has just one road league win and has surrendered at least one goal in 11 straight overall. No. 1 keeper Nick Pope is dealing with an illness. Appears both clubs will be rather short-handed. Burnley, sitting six points adrift of safety, has drawn its past two. Newcastle won the home leg 2-1 on Dec. 6. The Clarets were down to 10 men for the second half.