Like me some home DNB teams but this only qualified under Category 2, a term I am so glad we haven't had to say here this hurricane season: visiting team injuries. Newcastle is the better overall club slightly but pretty short-handed led by midfielders Joelinton (he's the big one) and Jacob Ramsey. The Magpies have dropped four of five in all competitions. Fulham is unbeaten in three in the EPL with one goal allowed in that span -- U2.5 feels like a decent wager too. Captain Tom Cairney is out so that's not the best news, but at 35 he's not the engine of the team. That said, I'd only play DNB here. BBC Sport's popular Chris Sutton has a 2-1 win.

Wanted to ensure that top Everton defender Jarrad Branthwaite would be available and he is. Only Jack Grealish is out for the Toffees, who have won back-to-back in all competitions and against much better teams than Coventry. Everton has created the fourth-most big chances in the final third. I have no idea what that means, but it sounded good! (Kidding, but about a year ago probably not.) Coventry City could be missing as many as seven players and is especially thin on defense led by Bobby Thomas sitting -- he was the last guy I was waiting on confirmation for, and it just came. The Sky Blues have only two total goals in four road matches (three losses).

That Brad Thomas is on Chelsea -0.5 certainly boosts my confidence for DNB on this Premier League matchup. As he mentioned, the Red Devils are winless in eight straight matches across all competitions. Good for Brad taking -0.5, but that's not how I roll. Insurance is my bag in soccer -- think LIMU EMU & Doug. Utter hatred of that commercial but guess it's working.

I do not tail, but I certainly take others' opinions whom I respect into the equation. And I was sorta leaning this way but then I saw Buckets play it and yeah that clinched. I'm getting there, but he's still way more soccer knowledgeable. I mean, a home team getting the Asian "hook" so to speak is something I always like anyways if all relatively equal. And the Sandwich spreads are higher in the table. Draw, draw, draw that would be great. Would I bet this if not a standalone 3 pm game now that I miss Cubs Friday matinees? I honestly don't know the answer ... but I am prepared to have chips and a Guinness ready.

Fading Manchester United worked well last Tuesday in the Champions League; Lisandro Martinez had some pretty pointed things to say post-game about management that was massive news in England and got him fined. The club has just six points through six Premier League matches for its worst start there in 40 years, so it might all be coming apart. And a handful of injuries. Leeds' 45 points in the EPL since last December are sixth-best in the league. And in that same time frame, only three clubs have accumulated more home points.

Thank you Aston Villa for Wednesday's utter obliteration of Fenerbahce in the Champions League. That paid. But also partly why fading here with the quick turnaround. I haven't played soccer since I was about 12 because where I grew up, you teased soccer kids. Pretty clear life sporting itinerary: Football season, then basketball, then baseball. Mix in a bit some hockey, golf and tennis. Soccer was what girls played. Obviously a bit tongue-in-cheek here but not totally inaccurate. Yeah, the 1980s were pretty different ... I still have no interest in soccer as player but am just loving it as a bettor. And all for three letters: D.N.B.

So here is how I do things: I look at our board (six books) and if there's an outlier I go investigate. Magnum PI stuff, but I sadly don't have a Ferrari or cool mustache. This is an outlier. Over 2.5 is fairly juiced at the others, but obviously 3 is such a key number in soccer. I'm good with it.

Aston Villa has had a massively disappointing start to the Premier League season, no doubt. But now we benefit as I'm still not sure should be a home dog vs. Brentford. And it barely is, but now we get the potential draw win on the home pitch. And this one of those times I am utterly rooting for a draw, which 2022 Sevy would punch in the face for doing so. We evolve. The visitors have a few guys out. Villa, meanwhile, has lost both home games in the EPL so far but has never dropped three in a row at home domestically under Unai Emery.

I was looking at this regardless but then I saw the excellent Martin Green played it, and that clinched for me. Everton was good to us earlier this week vs. Wolves in the EFL Cup. Newly promoted Ipswich Town, which sounds like a sandwich spread that I absolutely refuse to eat even if starving (welcome to my growing up Spam nightmare), has been pretty good so far but is coming back to earth a bit in allowing a whopping 13 goals in its past four in all competitions if my math is right. But I forgot to convert to pound sterling perhaps ...

I'll be honest in that I fancy a draw here but would never bet on that result. It's the first league match of the season at Elland Road under the lights. Both teams have found the net in all five of their overall matches this term. Leeds has avoided loss in 11 of its past 12 league games dating to last season. Newcastle was pegged to struggle under new manager Matthias Jaissle but also yet to lose in EPL play. The Magpies have allowed the most shots in the league (61), however.

Like road teams about as much as I like cooties and wouldn't touch this at +2, but yeah ... first of all I enjoy newly promoted Hull City's logo that I'm just seeing. Looks like a drunken leopard similar to my high school's. So I feel an immediate bond. Although I have to say disappointed in the "Tigers" nickname. Come on, most Euro soccer teams have great ones. Hull City is probably playing a bit over its skis unbeaten in three and not having allowed a single goal. Goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis is a dawg! Chelsea has never lost in this series and surely will not but also just played Wednesday in the Carabao Cup. Most of the Brit punters have this 2-0 or 2-1.

Chelsea lost a pretty good player in Enzo Fernandez in the recently closed transfer market to Man City. And Moises Caicedo is likely out here injured. The Blues have been outstanding early on offensively but also have allowed five goals in their two EPL matches. I think only a drew gets us -- DNB too pricy -- as Chelsea has a single win in the past 16 in the series in all competitions. Declan Rice should go for Arsenal in this London Derby after leaving the last match injured.

Excited to see the Premier League back -- did well on that last season. Think I prefer Euro soccer now to college basketball, which is dumbfounding. Two years ago Sevy needs to slap current Sevy. Yes I am talking in first person to make a point. Spurs looked wretched in their EPL opener but then terrific in trouncing some team I never heard of that sounds like a pack of smokes in the Carabao Cup. I'm not sure I expect this to win, honestly, but if I get a reasonable DNB price (like a cupcake covered in cherries with a shot of Jager love it so much) on a home team I'm probably taking it and just let the cards fall where they may.

Some of our other books are already at the -225 range for this Saturday Premier League match so I'll grab it now. It's the home opener for Bournemouth, which pushed Man City to the limit in the season opener away. The Cherries haven't lost their home opener (4W, 4D) since 2017. They own more wins over Everton all-time with nine than any other EPL foe. The Toffees, meanwhile, are winless in eight at Bournemouth (two draws) and have dropped their first EPL road game each of the past four seasons -- blanked in three.

Thank you Brentford for the profitable start to the Premier League on Saturday. Aston Villa finished fourth last season but lost second-leading scorer Morgan Rogers (10G, 6A) to Chelsea. And leading scorer Ollie Watkins (16G, 3A) is out amid a push from Al Hilal to get him as Watkins apparently wants to go. Villa's big offseason addition was Johan Manzambi, but he's not fit from a World Cup injury. So really BHA by default, and home teams in their openers have been cashing for us. The Seagulls are unbeaten in four this season: three friendlies and a Conference League qualifier.