One of our books has 2.5 but overjuiced. I tend to think Man U gets to at least two goals because West Ham pretty much allows at least two every game. But will United get a third and the Hammers one of their own is really what I believe this comes down to. West Ham is without second-leading scorer Lucas Paquetá (3 goals) and United might be missing Bruno Fernandes (2 goals, team-leading 5 assists). Harry Maguire and Benjamin Sesko are still unavailable. None of the past five in the series have topped three total goals scored.

I generally try to play Under 3.5 when it's not Barcelona or Man City, etc. Our model has 2.8 goals scored, and I do think/hope this lands right at 3. Six of Liverpool's past seven in all leagues have seen fewer than 3.5 goals scored and the Reds kept a clean sheet last time out vs. West Ham. It's the third game in a week for Liverpool, and manager Arne Slot has said the likes of Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak would struggle to play three sets of 90 minutes in a week. So they may come off the bench today or be subbed early. Slot named star Mohamed Salah to the bench for the win at West Ham and that has caused some tension.

Palace has a few knocks led by Senegalese forward Ismaïla Sarr, who will not make the trip. Sarr has featured in all but three of Palace’s matches in all competitions this season, scoring seven goals and assisting once. Apparently some Lane Kiffin-type coaching drama, too -- why does everyone care so much?!?! -- regarding Oliver Glasner. Burnley has dropped four straight league games so desperate. The Clarets (excellent even if not the musical instrument) are currently 19th in the league table, but a victory against the Eagles could lift them out of the relegation zone. Seems like a rare winnable home match, but we are fine with the draw. Burnley has gotten seven points from six matches at its Lancashire base thus far.

City has won the past 18 meetings vs. Fulham, which is the longest winning run by a team against any opponent in the history of the EPL, scoring 54 goals and conceding only seven. So I doubt the 2025 Citizens want to be the first to end that run. They have a chance to move within two points of Premier League leaders Arsenal with a win. Man City has had issues on the road this season, winning just two of the six Premier League away games. And Fulham has just one home loss. But I think the visitors squeak out a W. We'll do the Asian Handicap, though.

Not the best football Saturday -- if the Canes aren't in the playoff, I will quit that sport truly; go away Texas as Miami sure didn't lose to Florida -- but pretty good futbol. Forest is rolling with three straight wins (five in a row unbeaten) and having scored 3 in each. Quite sure we cash if that happens again. New manager Sean Dyche has essentially transformed the club after replacing the sacked (another great British term) Ange Postecoglou. I hope to never type that last name again as it basically made me cross-eyed for some reason looking at it. Morgan Gibbs-White missed the last match for Forest but is expected to be available. He has four goals in six games since the managerial change.

Why am I converting a bit to soccer? The Black Cats vs. the Cherries. That's just cool. Sounds like an 80s band-off hosted by Martha Quinn at about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday on MTV, and I'd absolutely watch (in college). I also simply enjoy saying Sunderland. It's like an Old Spice commercial: I am awash in "Sunderland" and then somehow a pink unicorn and flowers appear as in those stupid but kinda clever commercials. I have about 45 Spice jokes lined up but most involve Posh or Ginger so I'll just keep quiet. I'm not sure the right team is favored here. They are level in the table. And Bournemouth star Antoine Semenyo is in doubt.

Man United is a bit banged up out of the break, but Everton remains thin on defense with Jarrad Branthwaite and Nathan Patterson still on the sideline, and midfielder Merlin Röhl a new addition to the injured list and out. The Toffees visit Old Trafford with just one road win this season in all competitions, that victory coming against last-place Wolverhampton Wanderers in the EPL, who then beat Everton a few weeks later at the same venue in the Carabao Cup. The Red Devils, meanwhile, are on a five-match unbeaten run. United hasn't beaten by Everton, home or away, since April 2022. And I think only a draw beats us Monday.

Mostly a fade of the home side (which I now see Bruce and Buckets are doing) that has scored 10 goals in 11 EPL matches; only Wolverhampton has scored fewer. It seems very possible that Villans netminder Emiliano Martinez clean his sheets today -- I'm pretty sure that's not a saying, but I'm starting it -- so it's probably a matter of will the Whites defend enough. They have kept two clean sheets thus far. If we combine both teams' expected goals per 90 minutes, we get 2.04. Would not surprise at all if it's 1-1 in the 75th minute and we just have to hang on and hope Leeds goes into a shell to keep that point as it badly needs one.

Can't believe I missed soccer. Hopefully we can do international picks by the World Cup -- I would sure imagine so. Bournemouth sits ninth in the EPL table and West Ham 18th. I'm ordering myself something Cherries-related for Christmas/Boxing Day as I enjoy that nickname so much. They were routed their final two pre-break but both away, and all the guys are saying the applicable "get-right" things for this one. At home, they are unbeaten in the past four. Only Man City has more points at home in the EPL than Bournemouth. Plenty of motivation for the home side as the Hammers are on an eight-match unbeaten run in the series. How can we not fade a Ham before American Thanksgiving? #hamisgross; turkey all day.

We roll our Saturday Sunderland money (say that 10 times fast) into this one Sunday. I obviously have not conquered soccer betting nor probably ever will. But I'm good at math. And most soccer matches end in draws, so here we are. Also, I coached a Little League baseball team named the Bees so yeah this is a tad personal. #stingup Newcastle's Anthony Gordon, who leads the club with four Champions League goals this season (this is not that but for emphasis), is in major doubt.

Arsenal is on fire with a 10-game winning streak in all competitions and leading the EPL but also really banged up missing the likes of Noni Madueke, Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinell and most recently Viktor Gyokeres, who leads the club with four EPL goals. The Gunners often dominate from set pieces (looking up what set pieces means; just kidding, I do know that), but Sunderland has the second-best record in the Premier League when it comes to goals conceded from set pieces. The Black Cats sit fourth in the table and yet to lose in the league at home. Their last Premier League win over Arsenal came in November 2009 when Darren Bent scored the game's only goal. But we don't need a win.

First meeting between the sides since 2017 and is absolutely one where I'll be playing Draw No Bet as it is priced a very nice -125 but we don't have that option quite yet here. Sunderland sits seventh in the EPL table and Everton 15th -- and losing its past two by a combined 5-0 score. The Toffees have lost three of their four away games overall. Sunderland has some injury issues but it appears that defender Omar Alderete and midfielder Simon Adingra will both be returning. The Black Cats have won three of their past four. Régis Le Bris' club is unbeaten on home soil this season.

Two of the highest-scoring clubs in the league with Man City at 17 goals and AFC Bournemouth 16 -- the three leaders all have scored 18 but also have played one more game. I was looking at U3.5, but City has scored at least two in four straight at home (12 total in that span), and I don't think Bournemouth gets blanked. The Cherries' eight goals on the road are third most in the league; Cherries is such a spectacular nickname. Man City won this home matchup last year 3-1 and really that score was my concern about playing U3.5.

I feel pretty good about a soccer pick once I post it and then see Martin Green was already on the same side -- he might be the most knowledgeable soccer guy on the planet. Course, he would horse-collar tackle me for saying soccer and not football. Just one point separates these clubs in the EPL table, but Leeds is winless in its past nine away league games against Albion (D3 L6). BHA has kept a clean sheet in its past seven home league games vs. Leeds, the side's longest-ever run without conceding against an opponent. Leeds tries for B2B Premier League victories for the first time since November 2022. The Whites have followed their last six wins with a draw and five defeats.

Learned a pretty significant lesson today in getting mauled at soccer: I need to stick to home dogs getting the +0.5 or whatnot. Those I seem to really do well on and the rest not so much. It's just such a change for me to basically plan on a draw. Why I originally didn't like the sport all that much. I'm certainly not saying this will win Sunday, but this is who I will be going forward. Maybe an occasional total but until we get Draw No Bet doubt I play favorites unless just obvious advantage from player injuries or the like. Still no Rodri for Man City and fellow midfielder Nico Gonzalez is in doubt. The Villans have won three straight league matches.