Sportsbooks got this line wrong...

The experience is edge is the play here...

I see a big advantage in this main event matchup...

Although Jan Blachowicz is 43 and winless since 2022, he is still a savvy vet who has been in extremely close fights against elite competition. Blachowicz's 'Polish power' remains dangerous, and he showed strong recoverability in his last fight by winning the final round to force a draw. The 10-0 Navajo Stirling is a rising prospect training out of City Kickboxing, who continues to improve and pass each test. Stirling is taking this fight on short notice, and could have trouble dealing with Blachowicz’s fight I.Q over the course of fifteen minutes. Stirling has the athleticism and speed advantage on the feet, but Blachowicz should have the grappling upside. At +260, I'm willing to wager that Blachowicz has one more solid performance left in him.

Bogdan Grad is an intimidating pressure striker who pushes the pace. He mixes in his grappling attack, and can threaten his opponent wherever the fight goes. Dennis Buzukja is now 1-4 in his UFC career, and has fought just twice in the last two years. Buzukja was knocked out cold with a left hook in the first round of his last fight, and I don’t see him having success in this matchup either. Buzukja has punching power and decent takedown defense, but unless he can knock Grad out early, I don’t see him holding up against Grad’s relentless attack. Grad has 12 finishes in his 15-4 pro career. I see him overwhelming Buzukja and winning inside the distance.

Steve Erceg is now 5-3 with the UFC. While his losses have only come against former champions and title contenders, his durability has been tested even in some of his wins. Erceg has solid MMA boxing, but he often gets hit with hooks while backing up. That happened against power-punchers Kai-Kara France and Alessandro Costa, and could happen against the winging hooks of Ramazan Temirov. The 19-2 Temirov is currently on an eleven-fight win streak and has serious power for the division. Both fighters are skilled grapplers, but Temirov's physicality and athleticism could give him the edge early on. Although Erceg is the more seasoned UFC fighter, I think Temirov’s power and explosiveness make this a tough matchup for him.

Ismael Bonfim has gone under the 2.5 rounds mark in 4 of his 5 UFC fights. He has explosive power and speed early, but can break against pressure strikers. Bonfim has been stopped in all three of his UFC losses, and he will have his hands full in this matchup. Axel Sola is a big fighter for the lightweight division, who is unafraid of a nasty fight. His toughness, physicality, and pressure could give Bonfim trouble. However, Sola is coming off a loss in which he sustained tremendous damage just four months ago, so Bonfim could open up a cut on him early. If Bonfim isn’t able to hurt Sola in round one, Sola will look to walk Bonfim down and put him away.

Ko has impressed me in the 2-0 start to his UFC career. He showcased a strong wrestling game, and great control from top position in two shutout wins. Ko's physicality is tough to deal with in grappling exchanges, and I expect him to land takedowns in this matchup. Lebosnoyani is a well-rounded MMA player with athleticism, who can throw kicks from the outside, switch stances and mix up his game, but I don't think he will be able to faze Ko. Ko fights from the southpaw stance and fires a hard left cross down the pipe, that should get Lebosnoyani's respect on the feet. Ko’s in-and-out movement at range, fight I.Q, and physical grappling style will win out again.

The 7-0 Elliot is an intriguing prospect, who cross trains at MMA Lab and Red Hawk Academy with head coach Tim Welch. Welch said Elliot is perhaps the best young grappler he’s ever been around. Elliot will have to put that praise to the test against Anderson, who is just 5-0 in his MMA career, but has a lot of high level Ju-Jitsu experience. Elliot is the more dangerous puncher, and the naturally bigger fighter at featherweight. He also missed weight, which could give him an extra edge in grappling exchanges. If Anderson can’t submit Elliot, I see Elliot’s physicality and explosive style winning out.

This matchup pits the power and relentless pressure style of Saint-Denis, against the hard-nosed grit and skillful grappling of Pimblett. Saint-Denis creates chaos and pushes a non-stop pace that can drown his foes. Pimblett is coming off a loss to now-champion Justin Gaethje, but showed incredible toughness and determination in a competitive fight. Saint-Denis’s fighting style is likely to force grappling exchanges, which is where I think Pimblett can thrive. Saint-Denis gets reckless with his takedown attempts, which may allow Pimblett to use defensive submissions and sweeps to end up on top. Pimblett’s knees, uppercuts, and shots up the middle can also do damage. I expect this to be a bloody fight, with Pimblett’s toughness and slick grappling leading him to a win.

Cory Sandhagen dismantled Mario Bautista back in 2019, submitting him in the first round with a slick armbar. That was Bautista's UFC debut, and he has since leveled up, sporting an impressive 11-2 record. Still, Sandhagen is the craftier mixed martial artist. Sandhagen's rangy striking can be unpredictable and awkward to deal with. His kicking game also gives him the edge on the outside. Bautista is now much more physically built out, and may look to wrestle Sandhagen with his strength advantage. However, I feel that Sandhagen's scrambling and Ju-Jitsu are too high-level for him to get stuck. Sandhagen's losses have only come against champions and title contenders in the UFC. He will prove too slick for Bautista.

Fiziev was the betting favorite in both of his fights against now-champion Justin Gaethje, and in his matchup against prolific striker Mauricio Ruffy. Despite losing those bouts and going 1-4 in his last five, I still feel that Fiziev is being disrespected by oddsmakers. The veteran Muay Thai striker has great experience, toughness, speed, and a savvy kicking game. Torres is a violent finisher with explosive athleticism. His flying knees, punishing elbows, and long straight right hand make him lethal in the first round. However, Torres hasn’t had a fight go longer than five minutes since 2018. Torres’ early aggression is a double-edged sword, and can leave him open to counter punches. If Fiziev survives Torres’ early blitz, he will take over this fight.

Kape lost to Horiguchi in the RIZN fight promotion in 2017, and will get his chance for revenge. Now the UFC’s #2 ranked flyweight, Kape has come a long way since that loss 9 years ago, in which he fought with his ego and showed his youth. He is now a sharp and refined striker, with tremendous speed and kickboxing skill. Horiguchi is a savvy veteran with great experience. He uses bouncy footwork and a crafty style on the outside to float around the octagon, but I think the small cage at the Apex will help Kape track him down. This time around, Kape’s athleticism, power, and durability give him the finishing upside. Kape should win this rematch, and become the next flyweight title challenger.

Amil is on a two-fight losing streak, but was dealing with severe ulcers and a mysterious stomach infection through both of those fights. He is now fully healthy, and can bring his typical tenacity into the cage. Amil fights behind a relentless pressure style, as he looks to set a pace on his opponents and drown them. Rodriguez might be the more skilled MMA player, but I’m not sure that will count for much if Amil is still marching forward in rounds 2 & 3. Rodriguez is 2-3 in his last 5, and has dropped some close fights due to mental mistakes. Amil’s sheer will to win makes him worth a bet as a +155 dog.

Both Lopes and Garcia are hard-nosed fighters who will not shy away from a brawl. Garcia is an intimidating striker who uses his rangy Muay Thai style and heavy forward pressure effectively. On his seven-fight win streak, Garcia has walked down many of his opponents and broken their spirits early. Skill for skill, Lopes has more high-level tools in his MMA arsenal. He has championship-level experience, granite in his fists and a slick Ju-Jitsu game. Although I give Lopes the technical advantage in several areas, his striking defense still has holes, and I can see Garcia's awkward and aggressive style giving him trouble. If Garcia can defend some grappling exchanges and take Lopes’ punches early, I think Garcia can out-brawl Lopes in a nasty fight.