

Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past five NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,931 to $100 bettors. He has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons. And in the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Matt's Past Picks
Ever have one of those days just not feeling it? Kinda me today. Maybe it's because my wife is prancing around as Wilma Flintstone all day. Her Halloween just insanity is sorta taking me over. I am currently dressed as a furry Snoopy ... but I usually am regardless. So I'm just gonna go big on this game and be done with it today because clearly distracted and might end up in the 'pen anyways. Always ideal to have extra time to prepare for that unique Army offense and Memphis has had some.
Pretty shocking how mediocre Oregon has been but still a much more talented roster than Northwestern -- which is an impressive 6-1 but also really hasn't beaten anyone yet. The Ducks fired their offensive coordinator following Saturday's ugly loss at Illinois. They have to win out now to have any playoff shot and even that might not be enough. A handful of guys who missed the Illini game due to injury are supposed to play, although not clear yet on QB Dante Moore. One fun story line here is NW's OC is former Oregon head coach Chip Kelly.
Wanna know how I am a sports nerd? I stay up late/get up early to wait for the FCS lines so I can jump them before anyone gets a sense. True story. So I suppose 50% dedication, 25% smart and 25% Lambda Lambda Lambda. Princeton has looked great in its two home games, and Cornell's only road win in three tries is at Georgetown, which honestly I didn't know had a football team until today. Obviously grew up on the Hoops Hoyas. Ivy League game notes are hilarious. They mention some football stuff but mainly who their parents are and donors. So not much help there. What I'm seeing is generally Princeton by about 3.5 model-wise.
Wowzers, a total of 76.5 -- that's the highest of the season by far in college football. And I guess I get it as North Texas comes off an 88-total point game vs. Navy and had an 89-point total game a few weeks ago at Tulsa. FAU has that beat, coming off a 100-point game vs. Rice. But on principle I gotta play a half unit here. The model has only 50 points scored. That seems a bit low, but I'm good with 41-35.
The SL Curse has been activated on Ole Miss. Guess I understand why everyone is piling on the Horns, but they have been money at home vs. ranked teams the past couple of years. Is Arch Manning the most overrated college athlete since Brian Bosworth? Quite possibly. The Boz, who at least was good at Oklahoma, is now in national insurance commercials and pretty good in them, which just blows my mind. This is the season for Arch and Texas. And I'm just not buying Ole Miss. They might have the two best players on the field in Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy but UT probably has the next best 20. The model thinks this is an easy Texas win. I'll take a walk-off FG.
How can I put this non-weird? I have always rooted for BYU, and I'm about as far from a Mormon as possible. I mean, they were on all the time in early ESPN. Broke my heart in September 1990 against Miami. But also came on my radar in 1984 -- the year before the Canes really did (Bernie Kosar). Really cool unis, Steve Young as a kid he was just a magician, but Robbie Bosco was the '84 QB. That's all fine. But this defines trap game off beating Notre Dame in a Provo epic last weekend. It got hot as heck again here in Florida, that's gonna matter. I think UCF might win outright but certainly will not turn down 7 and the hook.
This line is moving with the news that MSU will/should get back QB Kamario Taylor and tailback Fluff Bothwell from injuries. I went ahead and punched to 3 just in case and while still fairly cheap. Oklahoma has scored a total of 23 points in its two road games, both losses. It's just not a relevant team any longer. I hope school officials are happy cashing those SEC checks because they wrecked the program. Stay in the Big 12 and you are the kingpin. But money talks holmes ...
The Wagon Wheel -- not the table from "When Harry Met Sally" -- is at stake in this often hard-to-watch rivalry between Akron and Kent State. Good basketball programs usually, though. The Flashes have one of the MAC's top defenses and held both Ball State and Ohio to 13 points each. They have played well at home. Akron's lone win was against FCS school Robert Morris and it hasn't had starting QB Cibastian Broughton since the third game of the season. There are a few other injury concerns. The Zips have lost all four road games by at least 20. The model has KSU by 3.
To be clear, I hope Michigan loses 56-0 and Indiana TPs the entire campus after. But now that 8, I will go a half because at least can't lose on 2-point nonsense. And IU just played Ohio State, so that's a physical toll.
Rhode Island looked great last Saturday in a blowout road upset win at ranked Yale out of conference and has won both at home thus far, allowing only 20 total points. QB Alex McClelland is the reigning CAA Offensive Player of the Week. Last season, Rhody won this matchup 58-17 away. Pretty much all the game notes tell me other than every player's favorite place to eat in the greater Kingston, R.I. area.
Will throw a half down on the CBS Sports Network game because Delaware is the better team with a healthy QB in Nick Minicucci. He hasn't played since being knocked out of a Sept. 26 game but is out warming up. Minicucci was the Preseason Offensive Player of the Year in Conference USA. The model has the Blue Hens by three.
How to explain the 1980s? Hair. Impossibly good music. Polo/Izod/Jamz. And how I came to love college football because of four teams: Miami, Notre Dame, BYU and Michigan (that due to hatred). Saturday in Provo might be the most "gorgeous" game to watch of the season via the eye test with the opposite colors and mountains ... yeah I'd definitely go if I could, although I'm not sure Provo is my jibe. I believe BYU is quite good but probably won't win without top tailback LJ Martin. Few harder places to play, though, and Catholics in Mormon town? Not quite Catholics vs. Convicts but solid. Utah may have to lift a few bans. Once this hit 11, had to go. Model has ND by six.
There are 138 teams in the FBS these days. I can probably name the starting QB or coach of 135 of those. So, yeah, I'd kill on Nerd Jeopardy while wearing a yellow Walkman sorta Gump-ish. But the FCS? I only go if the three models I trust all agree. They do here ... and in fact two think the wrong team is favored. And I get the hook on EIU.
What Curt Cignetti has done is a miracle in American sports -- he turned the Hoosiers, literally such a basketball state school that they made the greatest sports movie ever after Indiana HS hoops (1954 Hickory/Milan). I definitely own a Hickory shirt. Probably my No. 1 just ahead of Moneyball, the Natural and Hoop Dreams. But this just feels different. IU has been kinda meh so far w/new roster. And OSU's Jeremiah Smith ... that dude is why I am tanking my Fantasy Dynasty league. Well I didn't plan to. Do I trust Ryan Day greatly in a road game? Not really. But that roster is ridiculously better than IU's and generally has been together a couple of years. Indiana may be scary later.
I won't lie, I quite like this at least from the models. I know a little about Ivy League basketball -- only a few weeks now -- but can't say I follow religiously in football. Princeton has been dominant in a three-game winning streak. You'd think such a good school would do better than the headline: Princeton Game Notes vs. Brown. Really? Some future CEO couldn't make that a little interesting? It's the conference opener for both. The Tigers lead the FCS in scoring defense at 10.25 PPG. Combined, the two teams are allowing less than 23 points per game this season (thought about Under 40.5), so don't go expecting any Brendan Fraser "School Ties" offensive fireworks.
