Matt's Picks (1 Live)
I have gone a bit back and forth on this. If .. IF Ohio State cares at all after finally beating Michigan, then I believe the Nuts stomp the Jimmy Chitwoods. That said, I might take IU + the first quarter points. Just think five-star talent wins out eventually. But I also have Blockbuster stock so what do I know ...
Stephen F. Austin is the No. 7 seed in the FCS playoffs and playing a true home game, while Abilene Christian is No. 10. While the Lumberjacks got a first-round bye, the Wildcats had to play last week. SFA will play playoff football inside Homer Bryce Stadium for the first time since 2010 and has won 10 games in a row overall. The 'Jacks win with defense led by linebacker and Buck Buchanan Award finalist Jaydon Southard, ranking Top 10 nationally in team tackles for loss (1st), total defense (2nd), third-down defense (2nd), rushing defense (3rd), scoring defense (3rd), red zone defense (4th) and team sacks (7th). QB Sam Vidlak was named Southland Conference Offensive Player of the Year.
Fairly different admissions standards at these schools, I'm guessing. Can't say, I didn't apply to either. Was always Notre Dame or bust for me, but that didn't go as planned, either. Worked out fine. This is a crazy big number for an FCS second-round playoff game -- Yale's biggest football game likely ever after a shock comeback last week at Youngstown State. I will look at some models for FCS games and none have the Bobcats winning by more than 23. And now we get the hook, which just popped. No doubt MSU should win somewhat easily, but we know the Bulldogs won't beat themselves with stupid mistakes anyways. I'm fine with a backdoor late cover.
On the fence but then saw FCS expert Emory Hunt taking Lehigh ATS. And the ML seems a fairly reasonable number in a true home FCS playoff game for unbeaten Lehigh, ranked No. 5 in the postseason bracket. For the first time since 2004, Goodman Stadium will host an FCS playoff game. The Mountain Hawks are off a bye. Running back Luke Yoder was named Patriot League Offensive Player of the Year and a finalist for the Walter Payton Award. Linebacker Tyler Ochojski was named Patriot League Defensive Player of the Year and is a finalist for the Buck Buchanan Award, given to the top defensive player in the country. Villanova is no slouch at 10-2 and No. 12 but had to play last week.
Do I think North Texas wins? Probably. But maybe 58%. So I think now that we have 3, kinda have to at home for Tulane (true home game) and be fine with a push. Checking if a coach left or the transfer portal. No sport needs a commissioner to stop all this nonsense more than college football, but I doubt it happens in my lifetime as that would mean the SEC gave up a little power. Both coaches are on their way out, which is pretty ridiculous. Don't begrudge anyone moving to a more lucrative spot, but the NCAA has to stop this. Are contracts basically gummy bears?
Might be the first time I've ever played Delaware in football. About all I know about the Blue Hens are their Michigan knock-off helmets (actually, U-M kinda stole too as those originated at Princeton) and Joe Flacco. They were a pretty good FCS program and have transitioned to the FBS well. Just one home loss and a win here gets them bowl eligible -- although as a new FBS member, they'd need not enough teams with the necessary six wins. UTEP has lost four straight, has no bowl shot and has one road victory. It's the Miners' last game as a CUSA member as they will shift to the Mountain West. Really feels like all the motivation is on one side here.
A swarm of locusts descending upon Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon would be preferred in my eyes to this game actually taking place, but I'll sure be watching and I'm pretty surprised at this number. From a chance to defend the national title, this game really doesn't matter as the Buckeyes will be in the playoff regardless. Obviously, they want to end the skid in this series, but I wonder if the OSU guys are so concerned with laying a beatdown that they lose outright again. U-M hasn't won five straight in the series since the 1920s. Doubt it does that, but I believe keeps fairly close with a rush game that is averaging 232.5 YPG over the past five.
I don't get this number at all. Yeah, Toledo has an outside shot at the MAC title game (but not really) and Central no longer does, but so what. 11.5 on the road seems crazy to me as these teams are not that far from being basically even. Chips Ahoy are bowl eligible for the first time since 2021 and eyeing an unbeaten home slate for the first time since 2019. I think Toledo is slightly better, but yeah an outright CMU win would not surprise me unless I am completely reading this wrong. Which is possible. I did go to a MAC school after all. Let's just say I will be quite stunned if CMU loses by more than 10.
First off, I'm super-angry that I got so involved in Discord chat that I didn't get to post Kansas +11.5. Absolutely played that personally. Which may look stupid in an hour. So I will encapsulate what I think of Texas generally: Urban Cowboy movie (second-best ever soundtrack after Footloose), dust, cowboy hats/boots, gun racks and more dust. I personally find that utterly unappealing, but I get the Wild Wild West allure. This is the Horns' season and normally I'd just ban this to my personal ESPN Ocho or whatever, but I do wanna watch this. I had been waiting for 3. Now that it's there, I'll pay 20 cents for +3.5. Although I kinda think UT either wins outright or gets hook'emd. #HookEm
Wow 16. My father-in-law is a GT architectural legend, apparently. He flat-out told me last night: "F Georgia I don't care about no stinkin' playoff." The double-negative irked me, but he was two drinks in, very southern and quite entertaining when fired up. Imagine Sherriff Buford T. Justice from the first Smokey and the Bandit movie (so good) but massively smarter. So I mean now I have to. Do know this is not a true home game for the Jackets. They got paid to move it to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. But GT fans are usually drowned out by UGA fans even in true home games, so I'm not sure that matters much. And the Jackets almost won in Athens last year. This is their season.
Half unit as I'll just be honest: What Lane Kiffin is doing to his team is truly not cool. I don't begrudge anyone getting a raise of course. And perhaps (well very clearly), I don't know the difference between $9.2 million and $10.8 million. And Kiffin is a giant arrogant you know what; he is Steve Spurrier. But Spurrier won stuff. Kiffin is a great coach that's for sure. Just think all this surrounding can't be good. This might be the biggest Egg Bowl in recent history with all going on and it's also MSU's bowl game. Off-site, I threw $25 down on MSU to win outright. Either the Rebs tuned this all out and just smash or it goes wrong imo.
This has come crashing down. If you read the Wednesday newsletter, Navy still has a shot to reach the American title game but not a very good one. And, frankly, the Mids probably already are looking ahead to Army in a couple of weeks (on CBS). They are now conference rivals but that's not a conference game. If you have enough time to prepare for Navy, you really should win because it's not like it will trick you. If, and I mean if (because it can't play for the American title so is there motivation?), Memphis cares at all it should have little trouble here. The Mids are a nice story but have beaten no one, especially away. Obviously home finale for the Tigers.
This is not kicking at 7:30 because of the first game running late, so I can get this in. I'm utterly terrified, again, that WMU loses outright in a trappish road game with a chance to clinch the MAC RS title. But I'm pretty surprised this got to double digits even if I think the Broncos pull it out. Now I think at worst we push. But MACtion is crazy ... our model has EMU winning outright. I can't dismiss that.
I have been watching this all day so far hoping it would rise but it's dropping, so I'll take the last 14.5 we have. Half unit because I really don't care that much, but UMass is trying to avoid the school's first winless full season since 1927 and that's motivation enough for me. Fully expect the Minutemen to throw every trick in the book at the Falcons, who aren't exactly a powerhouse, either, with three total wins and one in the MAC while entering on a five-game skid. BGSU has nine straight games with under 200 passing yards and is on its fourth-string QB. It should be able to run all day, but prevail by 15 on the road when winless away?