Belichick vs. Swinney ...

Tulsa will be starting its backup QB. ...

Is USC in a trap on Saturday? ...

Saturday is about as far as Cal can travel for a college football game and still be in this country. The Bears got spanked at home this past Saturday by UCLA in the head coaching debut of Cal's Tosh Lupoi. Syracuse is in a make-or-break season under third-year coach Fran Brown. The Orange looked maybe better than they ever have under Brown in Week 1 by smashing little New Hampshire 66-3. Last season, playing without injured QB Steve Angeli, who was out with injury, SU posted 68 points combined in the final six games. Angeli was outstanding vs. UNH.

OK, while Michigan absolutely didn't deserve Saturday's win, and it might take me until 2028 to get over that, this is a massive overreaction number for Week 2. Why, because Oklahoma pounded UTEP? Nuh-huh. I'd favor UM at home (if slightly) and fully expect this to come down all week. That's why taking it now. Honestly thought it was a mistake by FanDuel but I'm staring at the number.

This is our only 3.5 for the Labor Day night matchup from Tally, and I'm not sure if the other books will follow suit (some are still at 2.5) so we'll go today. While I'm enjoying the Noles being terrible the past couple of years, I just don't believe they are this bad with all that Sunshine State talent on the roster. Ideally this comes down to the wire and SMU wins it on a field goal as time expires, but our model has FSU winning. The Noles do have the advantage of a Week 0 game under their belts. Have to say, though, that none of the experts at the Noles 247 site have them covering so that's not ideal. I wouldn't go lower.

It is hard for me to express how angry I am right now. Never thought I would see a worse CFB officiating decision than from the Ohio State-Miami natty a few decades ago until Saturday. My undergrad alma mater just got absolutely, unbelievably hosed in Ann Arbor (least they covered I guess). Not sure I've seen such blatant home cooking in my lifetime. Beyond, beyond angry. Tempted to sue someone. Hey, it seems to work for all these players who should not be eligible. But the last thing we need is more lawsuits. So the least Florida A&M can do Sunday then is cover for me and paper my grief with, well, paper. Note that this is a neutral-site game from Miami (Orange Blossom Classic).

So I'd like to explain some things here. I'm not going to not play big numbers because of our rules. I think you know what I am doing with this but not at the point I can tell you that yet. In sense of fairness I am fine solo. I'd put this with, I don't know, Kentucky. There are obv ways you are not paying -263 on this. But, again, fine solo.

Scrolling through Saturday's numbers for college football, and it's just awful: 44.5s, 36.5s, 24.5s, etc. So gotta go dredging in the FCS, which honestly I find better value sometimes these days anyways. About all I know regarding Holy Cross football is former Heisman contender Gordie Lockbaum -- ask your uncle who that is if don't know. Not going to say ask your dad because I ain't that old, just an absurd memory when it comes to nonsensical and meaningless things (I'd dominate Sports Jeopardy). The Fighting Toothpastes looked good in their opener and HC definitely did not. Colgate won last year's meeting away. The game notes from both these schools are so off the wall. One player mentions plaid as his favorite color. OK.

Need to have some opinion on a college football game tonight -- I'll be watching Toledo-Michigan State to see if the Pat Fitzgerald era with Sparty gets off to a good start. I don't have very high expectations there; lean Under, though, as they will run, run, short pass all night knowing Fitz. Half unit here because I don't think much of Eastern, but tough travel for an SJSU team that is basically starting from scratch roster-turnover wise. I am moderately familiar with Chris Creighton at LIMU EMU (hate those commercials but guess they are working since I just repeated the slogan). Both played Week 0, and the Eagles looked a lot better and didn't travel.

This is hoping that SIU preseason All-American quarterback DJ Williams doesn't play after leaving the opener with an injury. He's being called week-to-week, so you'd think not. The Salukis were upset without him at West Florida with backup Jake Curry throwing three picks. Then SIU had to travel back home, then here to Alabama. We get over a key number of 24 for Samford's home opener. The Bulldogs are just one victory shy of the 500-win mark all-time. Their QB is Oregon State transfer Gabari Johnson.

Did you really think I would not be first on college football? I own this sport. It's a big number so I go two units (I think should be -240ish). Obviously a risk doing it a month-plus before kickoff, but UNLV has a shot to be the best non-power school in the country under Dan Mullen, while Memphis lost its head coach and most good players to Arkansas. Whomever wants to move from Memphis to Arkansas needs to have their heads examined, but money talks holmes.

This is one of those where I simply have to play the first game of the FBS season even if I'm kinda on the fence about the number. It does help that TCU's top returning wideout in Jordan Dwyer is out with a foot injury. I sorta still want TCU to win by 50 because Bill Belichick irks me a ton even if he clearly has off-field game.

Mixed bag Thursday on our first night of FCS football. I was hoping this got to +10.5 and it just did for tonight. Wouldn't go lower. You'd think such a good school like Fordham would have really well-written game notes but the headline is: "Football starts tonight" and it tells you where to buy candy corn and park. That's pretty enthralling writing. May as well let AI do it. The two teams have split the last six meetings with Fordham winning the last at home in 2024.

Both FCS schools were 6-6 last year in different conferences, but Maine lost its quarterback and Towson brings its starter back. It's not quite that simple, but in this limited space it pretty much is. Carter Peevy started the past two years for Maine and will be replaced by Eddie "Ferris" Buehler. The redshirt sophomore has never taken a collegiate snap. Andrew Indorf (won a few state titles at a Florida prep powerhouse) had a terrific 2025 freshman season for Towson in earning CAA Co-Rookie of the Year and finishing 15th nationally in the Jerry Rice Award voting for top freshman of the year in FCS. There are FCS models and the ones I check all have the Tigers by at least three.