Valencia just sacked its manager. ....

Everything is relative. This is our lowest DNB number by 40 cents for Friday's match, and I believe it should be -300. Value is value, and I don't see the home team losing barring some Bird Box 3: Sevilla nonsense. The hosts have one loss in four La Liga matches, while winless and banged-up Valencia is last in the table with a minus-8 goal differential (one total scored). You are probably fine taking Los Nervionenses moneyline at +105ish, but this is just how I operate in soccer. It's like you put $20 somewhere and forgot all about it. Then you go fishing for a lost sock and find it. This most likely isn't losing and a win is a found sock/$20 combo.

Solid cash in La Liga today with Alaves. For Monday, the visitors are without two projected regulars in the midfield in Stefan Bajcetic and Aleix Fabas. As it is, Celta Vigo is winless in four (two draws) with a single goal. Getafe owns a home win in three total matches.

Both sides are unbeaten in three La Liga matches (two wins and a draw apiece), but Alaves is +4 in goal differential and Osasuna, which I really just like saying, is at +2. Do I somewhat think this draws? They drew at Alaves last year and kinda expect the same, but that's the beauty of DNB. I've decided that I just am not capable of wagering to draw. Not my cup of tea. Both squads seemed to get weaker via the transfer market -- the first games after that closes are always a bit tricky.

It's hard to explain how much DNB influences me in soccer now -- basically how I use -1 in the NHL. I'd rather pay a fair amount more for that draw insurance. And this number is still a good 40 cents lower than some other books on Real Sociedad for Thursday in La Liga. In 12 league games at home under American coach Pellegrino Matarazzo (not a tenor with that moniker?), Real Sociedad has just two defeats and drew in one this year. Celta de Vigo hasn't looked good with an opening scoreless away draw and then back-to-back home losses -- a single goal scored thus far by Iago Aspas. Sociedad won 3-1 at home in the series last season (drew away).

Well a 3 popped, so now have to do a half-unit. Barca may well win 6-0, but transfer addition Gabriel Jesus will not make his debut yet. Rayo Vallecano has a home draw to Alaves and close loss at Sevilla in the early going. It gave Barcelona trouble last season with a 1-0 road loss and 1-1 home draw. Barca hasn't won by more than three in the series since 2016.

Sunday was one of my best soccer days ever, so hopefully can carry that over into this La Liga match Monday. The hosts are unbeaten in two thus far (one draw) and have allowed only a goal. Appears to be a full roster for Osasuna. Fifth match in 16 days for Getafe as it also is competing in UEFA Conference League qualifying. Its lone La Liga away match thus far was a 3-0 loss at Alaves. The visitors have a few player availability concerns. Would have been interested in Under 2.5 -- our model basically has a 1-1 draw -- but the total is set at 1.5.

Big number but probably will end up closing low. Wouldn't do this as a straight ML. It's the home opener for Celta Vigo, which drew at Valencia in the season opener Saturday but deserved to win. It has drawn or won 10 of its past 11 including friendlies. Short week for Osasuna as it drew its season and home opener vs. Levante on Monday and was largely dominated. Goalkeeper Mathew Ryan had to make seven saves to keep it scoreless. The sides split last season, each winning away. The original Aug. 16 opener between them was postponed because fungus damaged the Balaídos pitch. A fungi postponement is similar to how the excellent end of the world show "The Last of Us" begins.

It's Malaga's first home game in the main division of La Liga in eight years, so that atmosphere alone should be good enough for a draw against a visiting side that is also up from the Segunda Division. When they played at that level last year, Malaga won 3-0 at home. They have met 22 times in official competition overall at La Rosaleda, and Deportivo owns just three wins.

Season opener for both, and backing home teams in La Liga so far has been wise. Not that I'd most likely play a road team. Real Betis finished 14 spots higher in the 2025-26 table. The Green-and-Whites, who beat Arsenal in a recent friendly, had the fifth-most home points in the league last campaign. Real Sociedad had three road wins in 19 tries. And the visitors are quite banged up for an opener, missing regulars in Gonçalo Guedes (8G, 1A) and Jon Gorrotxategi (1G, 3A) -- that latter one could be my last name, and I'd still spell it wrong. Betis has easily won the past two in Seville in the series.

Alaves looked a lot better in its opener than Rayo Vallecano did, but Alaves was home and its opponent in Getafe was down to 10 men late in first half. I sure like betting teams in their home openers in American sports, so why not deportes españoles también? Rayo was a tough-luck road loser near the death at Sevilla, 2-1, on a penalty in its opener but has won the past four in this series at home and four of the past five in it overall.

Last season, Elche finished as La Liga's worst away team with just eight road points and 13 total goals. Deportivo was promoted from the Segunda Division from last campaign so can't say I know a ton about that side yet, but in three August friendlies ahead of this opener none topped 2.5 total goals scored. Los Herculinos allowed the fourth-fewest goals in Segunda in 2025-26 with 44 in 42 matches and kept 11 clean sheets.

Last season, Espanyol finished five spots higher in the La Liga table than Levante, which had just four road wins and a minus-12 goal differential away -- and was nearly relegated. Overall, Levante tied for the most goals allowed in the 2025-26 campaign with 61 when these sides drew both meetings. Espanyol is unbeaten in the past three played at home.

I'm stoked for the return of European soccer/football, with La Liga -- think technically that's supposed to run together but my brain won't allow that -- kicking off Saturday. Visiting Getafe already has two injury concerns: Projected starting midfielder Christantus Uche suffered a season-ending injury in a recent friendly. He spent last season mostly on loan in the Premier League with Crystal Palace. Starting defender Kiko Femenia also was injured in a friendly and is in question. Getafe is winless in its three friendlies (one draw). It had a minus-8 goal differential away last La Liga campaign, while Alaves was even on differential at home, where it either won or drew 13 of 19 matches.

My Spanish is a little rusty -- me llamo Mateo; mucho con carne por favor -- but from what I can tell, Getafe will qualify for European soccer (not the Champions League) with a win. The side hasn't played in Europe since the 2019-20 campaign. Osasuna is playing to avoid relegation but seems relatively safe barring a blowout loss. Draw No Bet was invented for spots like this. Getafe won the reverse fixture 3-2.