To my eye, Atleti has absolutely nothing to play for at this point locked into European football next season, while Osasuna can perhaps finish Top 8 in La Liga or even still be relegated. Los Rojillos have been excellent at home, and their only loss there in the past 11 was to league champion Barcelona. Atleti, meanwhile, has a long list of guys ruled out led by Julian Alvarez and Guiliano Simeone.
Seems like something is going on at Real Madrid ahead of a Clásico in which Barca clinches the La Liga title with a victory or draw (DNB is way too pricy). Madrid saw midfielders Aurélien Tchouaméni and Federico Valverde (he's out because of it) get into a practice fight -- we talking about "practice" -- and each was fined nearly $600,000. That's pretty crazy and makes me wish I played soccer more as a kid to make that kind of bank. Half the roster is practically out today led by Kylian Mbappe. He's fit enough to party on his yacht but not play apparently. Mbappe leads the league with 24 goals.
I went and looked at fading Atletico Madrid on Saturday after that gut-punch loss to Arsenal in the UCL semis, but Atleti is home against a lesser foe, so I can't pull that trigger. That's what got me to the La Liga menu in the first place. And then saw this and I'm like yep. These two are fighting not to be relegated, so not a lack of motivation (unlike Atleti). Elche did lose the reverse fixture 3-1 on the road back in October -- scoreless entering the 75th minute -- but has been one of the better home teams in the league (31 points in 17 matches). Alaves has three road wins all season.
I went and looked at all four Champions League semifinalists today because it's just Trap City you'd think. I couldn't justify fading Bayern Munich, Arsenal (still playing for a domestic title) or PSG, but this I sure can. Clearly the books agree with me as in normal circumstances, Atleti would not be a dog. But why they would play anyone of note ahead of the second-leg UCL match vs. Arsenal on Tuesday is beyond me. Really no domestic reasons that I can see.
Like most money lines not part of a parlay, I set my limit on here at about -200 -- I'll stretch a bit for DNB because I consider that is two bets in a way. I wasn't expecting this to dip under -200, but it has so I'll take it. "M-m-m-my" Girona is three points better in the La Liga table. Mallorca has lost the past two in the series, including 2-1 in the reverse in early January. Needless to say, I have known about DNB as long as been a bettor, but I feel like my life would have changed if someone had told me this thing existed when I was a pup. I could spin off DNB into several life decisions.
Can already hear the "there goes Mr. Moneyline favorite again" jokes and that's fine. But I don't consider this part of that because I get to avoid a draw loss, and this is being a defensive bettor -- i.e. don't lose. Also think at least 50 cents too low. Would not play this ML straight up (-105). I won't say DNB is priceless but close. I'd start playing that in hockey too if we had it. Seriously have a mental block when it comes to OT (can't do much about stoppage time) because I simply never win so try to avoid it. May need to speak to someone about it. No one answered at 1-800-overtime. 867-5309 was a busy signal (remember busy signals?).
Both sides are fighting to avoid relegation with Levante needing the three points much more sitting second-to-bottom in the La Liga table with 29 points and Sevilla fourth-from-bottom with 34. The Frogs won the reverse fixture 3-0 in January and have just one loss in their past six overall in league play (three wins). Sevilla had lost three in a row before a home win over Atletico Madrid last time out. The side has only four road wins this La Liga season and just one in its past 11. This probably draws.
Must be something in the soccer water out of the international break as I just had my best weekend ever. I didn't do that by playing road teams, but Villareal is third in La Liga with 58 points, while "M-m-m-my" Girona is 14th in the table with 34 points. Feels like an ideal Draw No Bet spot to me as the visitors really shouldn't lose on talent but also may not win. The Yellow Submarine (wonderful) have the fourth-best away record in the league. They also won the reverse fixture 5-0.
Most of our books have Real Sociedad at -1 so I'll jump at this fair -0.5 price for Saturday. The hosts are seventh in the La Liga table and trying to push for European qualification next season. The White and Blues are unbeaten in eight at home, although there are a few draws in there. And that's all that likely gets us vs. Levante, which is second-to-bottom in the table and has allowed the second-most goals (48). It has gotten points in only six of 14 away league matches. The sides drew 1-1 in the reverse fixture in December. Real Sociedad allowed the tying goal four minutes into second-half stoppage time on a penalty via Adrián de la Fuente.
Seems a very fair price on Espanyol DNB considering it sits two points higher in the La Liga table than Getafe. I don't always bet teams sitting higher but on a Draw No Bet number like this it seems prudent. We are getting a discount because the hosts are struggling, but they won the reverse fixture 1-0 in mid-December. Getafe has been blanked in three of its past six overall. Starting defender Abdelkabir Abqar (great James Bond villain name) is suspended. Only bottom-of-table Real Oviedo has scored fewer goals than Getafe. Espanyol can score, it just can't defend much. Probably pushes.
Draw No Bet would have been nice, but that's -300. Espanyol closed 2025 red-hot but has struggled so far in the New Year to fall out of European spots in La Liga, sitting seventh in the table. However, Oviedo is last in La Liga by far with 17 points as well bottom in scoring (16 goals) and goal differential (minus-27). The Carbayones have a single league away win. I thought about Under 2.5. Meanwhile, the Parakeets won the reverse fixture 2-0 in October on second-half goals from Enrique García and Pere Milla.
Pretty fair price on Draw No Bet. They are right next to each other in La Liga, not too far from the relegation zone. Alaves has managed just eight points in 13 league away matches and is winless in its past five in all competitions. Valencia enters having won two of three. It just hasn't won in this series since August 2021. Overdue then. The visitors have two defenders suspended.
Osasuna is certainly the more in form club now but has accumulated only eight points from 12 La Liga away games. Elche is slumping but should be duly motivated as it could fall into the relegation zone this weekend if lose this match and other results go against Los Franjiverdes. They have the seventh-best home record this season with 20 total points accumulated. Overall, Elche is third in the league in average possession at 58.5%. The sides drew 1-1 in late September. All we want.
Is it me, or does Osasuna sound like a Neil Diamond song? "Sweet Osasuna" ... bamp, bamp bamp ... (only thing I like about the Red Sox) shockingly, I enjoyed Song Sung Blue and I'm not really into music-based movies -- although Almost Famous is Top 10 all-time. I don't consider that about music really just about the band. I see Buckets is on this. I like it anyways. Los Rojillos (the Little Reds), which make me want a taco (soft shell obviously), are unbeaten in the past three.
Will throw a half down at this cheap price for Over 1.5. Girona is tied for the La Liga lead with 34 goals allowed despite having played one match fewer than most of the rest of the clubs. Four of Getafe's past five have seen at least two total goals scored. When these clubs played on Halloween, Getafe won 2-1 even though it was scoreless in the 70th minute. Our model has 2.6 for this one.