FanDuel. Gavin Williams has emerged as one of the premier strikeout artists in the game. With 60 punch outs in 49.1 innings, he’s cleared this line in 6/8 starts, including all three of his home starts. His called plus swinging strike rate of 32.6% is second to only Jacob Misiorowski amongst pitchers with 30+ innings this season. He’ll face a Twins lineup that’s pretty average for strikeouts overall, but worse on the road (24.8% against righties away from home this season). And against power pitchers: 29% K%.
FanDuel. Braxton Ashcraft has made the most of his first regular stint in the Pirates rotation. The righty has pitched to a 3.02 ERA (2.64 xERA), with 45 K’s in 41.2 innings. His 27.2 K% and 13% swinging strike rate both rate above the 80th percentile for starting pitchers, as he’s been able to draw from his three main pitches to record strikeouts. His curveball in particular has been lethal against lefties, and he’ll see five in the lineup tonight (albeit one is Luis Arraez). Ashcraft has burned lefties with a 32.6% strikeout rate. And the righties he’ll face are largely plus-targets as well. The Giants are a below average lineup, and in a pitcher’s ballpark in pitching conditions, I like Ashcraft to stay efficient.
DraftKings. Kyle Harrison has been a revelation for Brewers injury-plagued rotation. However, he’s been highly inefficient with his pitch count, needing almost 4.3 per plate appearance, which is the most amongst qualified starters. That won’t bode well against a patient Yankees lineup. Harrison is under this line in 4/6 starts as is, and the Yankees have crushed lefties all season (.782 OPS, 116 wRC+). Brewers bullpen is rested after Jacob Misiorowski’s gem yesterday, preceded by an off-day. I’d bet this down to under 15.5.
Caesar’s / MGM. This is a high outs line for Emmet Sheehan, who has only finished six innings in four of his six starts. Sheehan does have a whiff-inducing arsenal, which leads to higher pitch counts: 4.04 pitches per plate appearance is 26th highest amongst 136 qualifiers. And he has been hit relatively hard, with a 5.23 ERA (4.32 xERA), 41% hard hit rate, .259 xBA. He’ll face the Braves who’ve been one of the top hitting teams all season against righties: .791 OPS, 119 wRC+, .348 wOBA. I’d bet this down to under 16.5 outs for a full unit.
FanDuel. With Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn back in the fold, the Brewers add two plus hitters against lefties with below average strikeout metrics against southpaws. The Brewers as is have run an 18% strikeout rate against lefties over the last month (fifth best). Max Fried is not a strikeout pitcher, per se - 21% K% this season and he typically sits within the 45th-55th percentile. The way he racks up strikeouts within his starts is through volume, and that should be tough to come by tonight. The Brewers make pitchers work - they have the lowest chase rate, and see the third most pitches per plate appearance. They don’t get caught looking at strike three (seventh fewest), and have the second lowest whiff rate.
DraftKings. Shota Imanaga has looked excellent to start the season, pitching to a 2.40 ERA (2.83 xERA). His two main off-speed pitches (splitter and sweeper) have been virtually unhittable, and he’s been able to limit damage with his four-seamer. He’ll face a Reds lineup that’s fared worse against lefties (.687 OPS and an 88 wRC+ over the last month) - and overall the Reds have dropped seven in a row. The Cubs bats, meanwhile, have been hot: .807 OPS and a 126 wRC+ versus righties the last two weeks. And they’ll square off against Rhett Lowder (5.09 ERA, 4.65 xERA). With Daniel Palencia and Brett Brown rested on the back-end, I love Imanaga to record the win today.
DraftKings. Jake Irvin has failed to clear more than five innings pitched in five of six starts this season. His pitch efficiency has worsened in the ABS era, with his zone rate dropping to a career worst 50.7%, and his chase rate at 24.7% (13th percentile). His 4.01 pitches per plate appearance is in the 26th percentile of qualifiers, and he also hasn’t been particularly effective (4.93 ERA, 4.81 xERA, 48% hard hit rate). He’ll face a patient Twins team (9th in pitches per PA, 10th in chase rate) that has been starting to break through at the plate of late.
Caesar’s / B365. I’m going to pick on the Nationals lineup again, this time backing the under on Bailey Ober’s hits allowed prop. The Nats just have not been hitting at all, accumulating a .177 average the last two weeks against righties. Ober has only allowed 30 hits in 38 innings this season, staying under this line in six of seven starts. His success is due in part to his lower arm angle, which combined with his towering frame and long extension, has made it difficult for hitters to pick up the ball. Ober’s contact metrics are all in the elite range this season, which has lead to drop in batting average allowed and xBA. Look for the righty to continue his resurgent season today.
DraftKings. Taj Bradley has been a solid piece in the Twins rotation. With 35 hits allowed in 41 innings, Bradley is under this line in 5/7 starts. His expected batting average allowed of .238 sits above average for qualified starting pitchers, and he’s been particularly solid against left-handed hitters. Versus southpaws, Bradley has only allowed 17 hits in 90 plate appearances, by virtue of his splitter, which lefties are 1/17 against. The Nationals will start 6-7 lefties today, and are a well-below team in terms of hitting for average. This season, against righties, Washington is hitting .222 - and an even worse .194 over the last two weeks. Look for Bradley to keep the Nats bats at bay tonight.
FanDuel (1.5u). I’ve been a big Randy Vasquez fan early on this season. The right-hander dropped his arm angle and tweaked his repertoire, which has resulted in increased velocity and spin, and thus, more swings and misses than he’s produced in his MLB career to date. With 34 strikeouts in 33.2 innings (a nearly 25% K%), Vasquez has cleared this line in 5/6 starts, and will face a Giants lineup that’s been strikeout prone of late (24% over the last 2 weeks against righties), and not hitting well either (.633 OPS within the same subset).
FanDuel. This is a nice spot to back Yankees phenom Can Schlittler. The right hander is amid a breakout campaign in which he’s pitched at a Cy Young level: 1.51 ERA, 2.38 xERA, 49 Ks in 41.2 IP, and a baseball savant page littered with red. He pumps the zone, consistently finding himself in two strike counts, which should play in his favor tonight against the Orioles. Baltimore has the second highest called plus swinging strike rate as a team this season (28.8%), and a gaudy 30% K% against power pitchers. And the Orioles bats have been significantly worse on the road this season overall, especially against righties (27% K% and a .599 OPS over 403 plate appearances). Take the over on Schlittler’s K’s tonight.
DraftKings. Shane Baz has been knocked around this season, allowing 40 hits in 34 innings. His opponent batting average allowed is .301, with the xBA being .268 - even with an expected regression, he’d still be well below the major league average. He’s particularly struggled against lefties, allowing a staggering 26 hits in 85 plate appearances, as hitters have crushed both his four-seamer and curveball. The Yankees likely trot out six lefties tonight, and that doesn’t include Ben Rice, who left the game early yesterday, or Aaron Judge (4/10 with two homers off Baz).
FanDuel. This is a great spot to back the Mets rookie. Nolan McLean has racked up 45 strikeouts in just 35.1 innings, clearing this line in 5/6 starts. His advanced stats tell the part too - his called plus swinging strike rate of 32% is sixth highest amongst qualified pitchers, with six pitches in which he’s able to produce strikeouts. It’s an ideal matchup against the Angels who’ve come out of a hot streak and are K’ing at a 30% rate with a .641 OPS against righties the last two weeks. McLean will also see 5-6 righties, which is his better split (42% K% and a .201 wOBA). The juice is worth the squeeze at 6.5, as I have him projected at 8 K’s.
FanDuel. I like Michael King on his strikeout line tonight. Typically dominant at home, King has 11 punchouts in 11 innings at Petco Park this season, while pitching to an 0.82 ERA. The White Sox bats have been hot, but do still have several plus targets for King scattered in the lineup.
Caesar’s / MGM. As solid as Dylan Cease has been in his first season as a Blue Jay (2.87 ERA and 3.25 xERA), he has only finished 6 innings in one of his six starts. He’s highly inefficient with his pitch count, needing 4.36 per plate appearance, which is the most amongst qualifiers. He’ll face a patient Twins lineup that sees the 11th most pitches per plate appearance, draws the fifth highest walk rate, and has the ninth lowest chase rate. If they can string together anything offensively, keeping Cease under this line should be no issue. I’d bet this down to under 16.5 outs for a partial unit.