Prop's Picks (1 Live)
Caesar’s. Tatsuya Imai is a good pitcher for us to target for an under on a hits allowed prop. For one, his batting average against is .196 (with an xBA of .236). And by virtue of his sky-high 16% walk rate, he’s only allowing a hit every 6.3 plate appearances, or every 28 pitches. He’ll face the Athletics, who are only hitting .234 over the last month against righties (12th worst), paired with a 10.5% walk rate. I love this line, especially at plus odds - Imai has stayed under in 5/7 starts this season; I expect him to make it 6/8 today.
Caesar’s. Drew Rasmussen has allowed at least five hits in five of his last seven outings. In both misses, he allowed four hits, with explainable reasons for staying under (pitch count or outlier BABIP). He’ll face a contact-oriented Marlins team that tagged him for seven hits in their last meeting in Tampa. Miami has six lefties in the lineup today - Rasmussen has allowed southpaws a .272 batting average (.265 xBA).
DraftKings. This is a great spot for Michael Wacha. The cagey veteran has cleared this line in 10/12 starts, and will face a Twins lineup that strikes out at the fifth highest rate against right handed pitching. Wacha’s reverse splits (23% K% and a .180 oBA against lefties) will put the Twins in a tough position. Minnesota will have to decide between starting their core lefty hitters, or eschewing them for their high strikeout righties (Ryan Kreidler and Alex Jackson, in particular). Either way, we’re getting plus spots for Wacha throughout the lineup, and a highly achievable line.
Caesar’s. Carlos Rodon has only cleared this line in one of his four starts this season. His pure stuff is terrific, but so far this season, his command has been off. He’s isssued 13 walks in 19 innings and his zone percentage of 42% would be a career low (by 4%). He’ll face the Guardians who have the ninth lowest chase rate against lefties, the 8th highest walk rate, and overall see the most pitches per plate appearance. Not only that, but their .745 OPS against southpaws is the 8th best mark. The weakness of the Yankees pitching is their bullpen, and the Guards are built to grind it out. Look for Rodon to get the hook before the end of the sixth inning.
FanDuel (1.5u). Taj Bradley has cleared this line in seven of ten starts this season, and he gets an ideal opponent today. Not only do the White Sox strikeout a lot: 24% against righties this season; but the South-Siders are also starting seven lefties in the lineup today. Bradley strikes out southpaws at a 32% clip, while holding them to a .190 average (.196 xBA). In a day, getaway game, I love Bradley enough to go 1.5 units on this.
Caesar’s. In his first season as a Rockie, Tomoyuki Sugano has remained under this outs line in 4/6 road starts. Pitching to a 3.62 away from Coors Field, Sugano is a big time regression candidate with a 4.75 xFIP and extremely fortuitous .214 BABIP. While the Angels might not seem like a tough matchup on paper, they hit finesse pitchers well with a .780 OPS. And they’ve been hot of late, with a .798 OPS against righties over the last two weeks. Colorado’s bullpen is in decent shape, and Sugano does not have a long leash as is - take the under.
Caesar’s. Davis Martin had cleared this strikeout line in 8/10 starts before his five K performance against Minnesota in his last outing (in which I was unfortunately on the wrong side of). He did, however, record a 33.3% called plus swinging strike rate, including 14 swings and misses in that outing - numbers that would typically lend to more significant strikeout totals. What ultimately burned Martin was his efficiency, as he was pulled at just 84 pitches (22 batters) in a clean six innings. Against a Twins lineup that’s at a 24% at a 24% K% over the last two weeks against righties, I do see this as worth a re-bet at even better odds this time around.
FanDuel. After two dominant outings to start the season, Kevin Gausman has remained under this strikeout line in nine of his last ten starts. Overall, he’s under this total in 5/5 road starts where his strikeout rate drops to 16%. The Braves own the seventh lowest K% against righties this season (20.5%), and have been even better over the last two weeks at 18%.
DraftKings. Landen Roupp has been impressive for the otherwise lackluster Giants. But even with his success (3.30 ERA, 3.03 xERA), he’s under this line in 5/11 starts, due in part to poor pitch efficiency. Roupp needs 4.19 pitches per plate appearance, the fourth most amongst qualifiers. And that number increases to 4.24 against lefties, paired with an 11.3% walk rate. Thats not ideal against a patient Brewers lineup that’s throwing out six lefties tonight. Milwaukee as a team has the lowest chase rate this season and typically look to make starters grind it out.
Caesar’s. Emmet Sheehan has remained under this outs line in 5/10 starts this season. However, he’s struggled on the road, where he’s pitched to a 6.52 ERA, staying under this outs line in 3/4 outings. He’ll face the Diamondbacks lineup that’s in the top ten of pitches per plate per plate appearance against right handed pitching. Arizona should also start five lefty hitters today, which is Sheehan’s worse split (.869 OPS allowed).
Caesar’s. Robbie Ray has struggled over his last three starts: 13 innings, 20 hits, 18 runs, 11 walks. As is, his ERA sits at 4.60 (with a 5.35 xERA), and he’s under in 7/11 starts. On the road is where is struggles have been exacerbated, as his opponents have a .931 OPS off him. And today, he’ll be tested in the optimal hitting conditions of Coors Field. Ray has struggled traditionally in the altitude with a lifetime 5.33 in Colorado.
DraftKings / Caesar’s. This is an ambitiously high line for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers ace is under this mark in 7/10 starts, sporting a .183 OBA. Despite some big names in the lineup, the Phillies sport a .231 average against righties (25th), and only .216 against righties in away games (28th). Even the under at 4.5 hits allowed at plus odds is worth a look for a half unit.
DraftKings. After three years in Japan, Foster Griffin returned to the MLB this season and has been a solid piece atop the Nationals otherwise shaky rotation. The lefty is pitching to a 3.63 ERA (4.14 xERA). With only 51 hits allowed in 62 innings, Griffin is under this hits allowed prop in 8/11 outings. While his advanced stats do indicate some regression could be coming (.245 xBA versus a .219 oBA), this is still an excellent matchup. The Padres are 25th overall with a .219 average against lefties - .208 over the last month. After two tough starts, Griffin rebounded with a sterling outing against the Braves his last time out - look for more of the same today.
DraftKings. Going to fade Parker Messick on his outs prop again. The 17.5 line has proved to be a touch to high for the rookie, who is under in 7/11 starts, three times being pulled in the sixth inning. He’s allowed a .304 oBA the third time through the order, and Guardians manager Stephen Vogt often pulls the lefty for a righty bullpen arm, in a tough matchup. The Red Sox are a much better offensive team against lefties, especially of late: over the last 30 days, Boston has a .816 OPS and 128 wRC+.