DraftKings. Nick Martinez has failed to finish six innings in each of his last four starts. While he’s efficient with his pitches, the Reds keep him on a short leash the third time through the order, as opponents are hitting 10/23 with three home runs in that split (1.437 OPS, and were 24/74 last season). He’ll face the Cardinals, who’ve been raking over the last week (124 wRC+ and a .794 OPS versus righties). They’re patient too, seeing the tenth most pitches per plate appearance as a team.

DraftKings. Clarke Schmidt is pitching in his third game of the season. His first two starts saw him get roughed up a bit, with 11 hits, 8 runs allowed in only a combined 9.2 innings. He did manager nine strikeouts, but this is a very tough matchup. The Blue Jays are stingy with strikeouts, registering only an 18.3% K% against righties over the last two weeks (18.1% for the season). This is the second game of the Sunday double-header, but the Yankees did not need to deplete their bullpen in the first game.

Caesar’s. The read here is that Osvaldo Bido has an incredibly short leash the third time through the order. He’s yet to finish six innings in any of his five starts, and he’s been pulled in the sixth inning in each of his last two starts. The third time through, opponents are hitting 8/23 off of him, with three home runs (1.190 OPS). Yes, the White Sox are not exactly the offense I want to rely on in this situation, but they’ve been patient just faced Bido (5.2 IP, 5 H), and they’ve been hitting well in Sacramento. The A’s new home has proved to be a hitters park, and Bido struggled in both of his home starts.

FanDuel. Kris Bubic has been electric this season. He’s cleared this line in each of his five starts (33 strikeouts in 31 IP), pitching to a 1.45 ERA. He gets the Astros, who are more strikeout prone on the road (23% K%). Bubic has just been too good - I’d bet this one up to -150.

Caesar’s. Simply put, if you’re giving me an outs prop under at plus odds for a pitcher who has failed to clear this line in 4/5 against a patient team (eighth most pitches per plate appearance) that’s also hot at the plate (117 wRC+ versus righties the last two weeks), I’m going to take it.

FanDuel. After a slower start to the season on the strikeout front, Merrill Kelly has rebounded nicely with 14 strikeouts over his last two starts. He now gets the Braves, who although are swinging hotter bats, are still strikeout prone. The Braves are running a 22.7% K% over the last two weeks against righties.

DraftKings. This line reads as a bit of an overreaction to Walker Buehler’s Patriot’s Day start against the White Sox. The fact is, Buehler is under in two of five outings, and has struggled versus left-handed hitters (.841 OPS allowed, and a 20% K%). The Guardians have looked like themselves over the last two weeks with a 114 wRC+ and only a 17% K% against righties. I expect 7-8 left handed bats in the lineup today.

Caesar’s. I’m still not sold on Robbie Ray being able to provide any length or efficiency for the Giants. He’s under this line in 4/5 starts, and continuing to struggle more as he progresses through the lineup. While the Rangers aren’t exactly a patient team at the plate, they do have better splits (walk rate, wRC+, and OPS) against southpaws. But right now I’m in, “prove it” mode for Ray on an outs line this high.

DraftKings. Sonny Gray, traditionally dominant at home, gets a familiar opponent with the Brewers today. His 28% K% in St. Louis is similar to least season’s 29% - he was 12/13 to the over in his fully stretched out home starts last season, and 2/3 this year. He gets the Brewers, whom he’s had strikeout success against. And with a day game on tap, he should see a favorable lineup potentially featuring the backup catcher. I’m betting this to win 1.2 units.

FanDuel. It’ll only be his third outing of the season, but I’m backing Andrew Abbott and his strong start to 2025. The lefty had an off year in terms of strikeouts in 2024, but he’s been regarded as a high strikeout pitcher throughout his amateur and professional career. Coming off two stellar performances (16 Ks in 11 IP), Abbott’s tweaked changeup has yielded strong results thus far. And it’s a fantastic matchup against the strikeout prone Rockies (28.9% K% versus southpaws) and the conditions at Coors Field today won’t be as hitter friendly as usual (per Ballpark Pal).

FanDuel at +110. Playable to -120. I’m once again targeting a pitching out under for a starter going against the Brewers. Milwaukee has seven guys in the lineup today who see above average pitches per plate appearances, and as a team, they own the eighth lowest chase rate. That should bode well against Landen Roupp - the Giants starter has the third lowest strike zone percentage out of 124 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this season. Pitching for the first time on four days rest this season, and yet to establish a third pitch to go along with his curveball and sinker, we’ll see how much leeway he’s given the third time through the order.

FanDuel. Freddy Peralta has looked great to start 2025, pitching to a 1.91 ERA and 2.51 xERA. The one thing that has plagued the Brewers ace is pitch efficiency. Peralta has remained under this line in four of his five starts. At 4.12 pitches per plate appearance and a 34% zone percentage, he ranks in the 16th and 1st percentiles, respectively, amongst qualified starters. The Giants are tenth in pitches per plate appearance, and their platoon against righty pitchers should yield 7-8 hitters who see above average pitches. And over the last two weeks, the Giants have a 123 wRC+ and .790 OPS against righties, including the league’s highest walk rate (14.2%).

Caesar’s. I’m selling high on Jordan Hicks. He’s failed to clear this line in two of his four starts, and is still failing to throw strikes consistently (61%). He’s coming off a flukey performance where he managed seven innings, as the Phillies bailed him out after getting to him early (and had four baserunners thrown out). Now pitching on four-days rest for the first time this season, Hicks has a tough matchup against the patient Brewers (seventh lowest chase rate). Giants bullpen is in decent enough shape, and have their ace Logan Webb going tomorrow.

DraftKings. Chris Bassitt has started the season strong, but this is a nice opportunity to bet on some regression (0.77 ERA versus 2.86 xERA, 40% hard hit). The Astros have started to hit again, and have traditionally succeed at home. As is Bassitt is under this line in three of four starts.

Caesar’s. Jack Flaherty gets a tough matchup against the strikeout-resistant Padres. San Diego once again owns the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers (17.4%). Against power arms (pitchers in the top third of combined strikeout plus walk rate, per baseball reference), the Padres remain stingy at 20% K%. Even with Luis Arraez out of the lineup, this is a great spot to fade the Tigers starter.