FanDuel. It’s a tough environment to pitch in, but Walbert Urena has been way too good of late to pass on this line. The Angels rookie is over this line in 17/24 full starts this season, including 10 of his last 13 with a 2.35 ERA over that span. The A’s skew right-handed, which plays into Urena’s better split (26.8% K%). And the rookie does a terrific job at suppressing hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground, both should help mitigate the impact at Sutter Health Park. In his earlier outing in Sacramento, Urena managed six punchouts (19% swinging strike rate) while only allowing four hits.

DraftKings. Nolan McLean is under this line in 22/30 starts this season. He’s pitched to a 3.18 ERA (3.70 ERA), and a 2.51 ERA since May 31st. The Rangers have a .619 OPS over the last two weeks against righties. This is assuredly McLean’s last start this season, and the Mets have zero reason to push their ace.

DraftKings. Gerrit Cole is under this line in 11/21 starts this season, including four of his last five outings. Coming back from Tommy John surgery, his swing and miss stuff has precipitously declined - his 9.8% swinging strike rate is his lowest since 2017. He’ll face the Rays who have the second lowest K% against righties this season (18.9%), and the lowest swinging strike rate. Also, the Yankees are virtually locked into their playoff positioning, and on a cooler night, don’t have a need to push Cole’s season workload even further.

FanDuel. In what is most likely his last start of the season, I’m going to back Taj Bradley to notch seven strikeouts. Bradley has 199 K’s this year, and has cleared this line in 16/30 starts, including four of the last six. While it can be risky to bet on an over with a pitcher and team with nothing to play for at the end of September, Bradley doesn’t have workload restrictions and is in solid form. He also has an A+ matchup against a glorified AAA roster. The Giants are likely to trot out seven hitters with above average K% against righties, and only two hitters with an above average wRC+.

DraftKings. Mackenzie Gore has allowed at least two runs in 22/31 in his regular rest starts this season. Pitching to a 4.67 ERA (7.16 ERA in September), Gore has faltered down the stretch to the point that the Rangers have pulled him early in each of his last three starts, as they’re in full playoff-push mode. Still, Gore will be allowed to pitch twice through the order, which should be enough here. Opponents have a .912 OPS against Gore with RISP, and an .813 OPS just with runners on base. Even with the Mets bats dormant of late against lefties, Gore is in awful form, and I have the Mets plating at least two before he exits.

Caesar’s. It’s been the tale of two halves for Bryce Miller. Before the All Star break, the righty pitched to a 2.18 ERA, and after, a 6.52 ERA. He’s under this line in 8/10 starts coming out of the break, struggling specifically with his command of late (16 walks over his last four games). He’ll be pitching at Coors Field against a Rockies team that has predictably mashed at home (.865 OPS over the last 30 days at home versus righties). With the Mariners having essentially nothing to play for, there is no need to push the injury prone Miller in what’s likely his second to last start of the season.

DraftKings. Cam Schlittler is under this line in 23/31 starts this season, including a ridiculous 14/16 in away games (1.14 ERA). The Yankees are also at the point where they are pretty much locked into the first wild card, and don’t necessarily need to push Schlittler - they could pull their ace a tad earlier than normal. Regardless, the presumptive Cy Young favorite is on the verge of putting a bow on his historic season. The Diamondbacks have only managed a .682 OPS against power pitching this season, and lack the power as a team (27th in slugging versus righties). It’s very tough to string hits against Schlittler, and his walk rate (6.1%) is in the 80th percentile. I love the matchup.

Caesar’s / FanDuel. I’ll break code and bet just what is my second overnight line of the baseball season, but this line is too low for a fully stretched out Tyler Glasnow. The Dodgers righty has cleared this line in 8/10 full starts this season (with at least six punchouts in all ten outings). Pitching at home against a backup-laden Giants lineup that’s likely to feature at least six plus spots, Glasnow should feast.

Caesar’s. Fresh off a new contract extension, I’m backing Cade Cavalli to finish six innings tonight. He’s completed the task in 11 of his last 12 outings, pitching to a stingy 2.13 ERA over that span. He’ll face the Cardinals who’ve been slumping at the plate, with just a .680 OPS over the last thirty days against righties. And the Cards have struggled to hit at home all season, with just a .655 OPS versus righties, compared to .728 on the road.

DraftKings. As solid as Peter Lambert has been for the Astros this season (3.71 ERA), he’s under this line in 15/26 starts, including seven of the last nine. The Astros are in an absolute dog fight for the division and playoffs in general, and will be forced to manage this game tight. The Braves bats have woken up over the last week, and when fully healthy, tout a patient lineup that works the count.

FanDuel. I don’t mean to be picking on the Twins, but the books keep setting these strikeout lines too low for their opposing pitcher. Tonight, that’s Walbert Urena, who has cleared this line in 15/22 fully stretched out starts, including 10/12 at home. While the Twins have a lower than average strikeout rate, they also have really struggled at the plate, allowing pitchers to work deeper into games and face more batters. Urena has been solid all season with a 2.88 ERA, and a 2.60 since July 1st - he should roll tonight.

DraftKings (-125). Zack Wheeler is under this earned runs line in 18/25 starts this season, pitching to a 3.14 ERA (3.02 xERA). He’ll face a Nationals lineup that has really cooled off over the last month, with just a .666 OPS and 81 wRC+ against righties. Wheeler has been in top form of late, allowing just three earned runs over his last 19 innings.

Caesar’s (-150). Logan Henderson has been a revelation for the playoff-bound Brewers. The rookie has pitched to a 2.34 ERA, with 99 strikeouts in 88.1 innings. He’s cleared this line in 10/14 starts, including eight of the last nine, since he’s been built back up coming back off injury. He’ll face the Pirates who’ve been strikeout prone all season (23.3% versus righties and 31% against power pitchers). The top six hitters in the order tonight all have an above average K% against righties, which should bode well for Henderson.

FanDuel. Same song and dance as yesterday - this line is too low for Carlos Rodon, who is now fully stretched out. Rodon has cleared this line in 10/13 starts with at least 75 pitches thrown, including 15 combined over his last two. In a getaway day game for the Twins that could feature some backups, I have Rodon reaching six punchouts. I’d bet this to over 5.5 for a partial unit (plus odds).

Caesar’s. There are enough plus strikeout targets in this Twins lineup for Max Fried tonight. The Yankee lefty has cleared this line in 9/13 starts with at least 75 pitches, including seven of his last eight. Built up to 80 pitches in his last outing, the impetus for the Yankees will be to continue to work Fried up toward his normal pitch allotment before the playoffs. I have him with five strikeouts before the end of the fifth inning tonight.