Caesar’s. Merrill Kelly has cleared this strikeout line in eleven of his nineteen starts. His recent streak of ten straight starts with at least six strikeouts was snapped against both the Giants and Padres, but he’ll now face an Angels lineup that’s consistently been K-friendly during the first half of the season (25.3%). Expecting the Angels to start at least six right handed bats (Kelly’s better split), and wouldn’t be shocked to see some veterans on the bench today.

Caesar’s. Hand up, as I’ve unsuccessfully faded pitchers’ strikeouts against the Tigers the last two games. Today, I’ll flip the script and back Logan Gilbert, who has cleared this line in eight of ten full starts this season. With 79 strikeouts in 55.2 innings, his 35.1% K% has him in the 96th percentile. His splitter (main strikeout pitch) should play today - seven hitters in the Tigers lineup have a 33% whiff and strikeout rate or worse against the pitch.

FanDuel. As great as Jacobs DeGrom has been this season, his strikeout rate against right handed batters is a pedestrian 21%. That’s pertinent in today’s matchup, as he’s likely to face 7-8 right handed hitters in the Astros lineup. Overall, DeGrom is under this line in ten of eighteen starts. While he did finish with seven strikeouts in his previous matchup with the Astros, he faced a season high 30 hitters (five more than any other start). The Astros overall are a tough team to strikeout (20.6% versus righties on the season).

FanDuel. After successfully backing George Kirby on his strikeout line in a solid matchup against the Pirates, I’m looking to fade the righty. Kirby has only cleared this line in two of nine starts. Traditionally struggling more on the road, Kirby will have to contend with a Tigers lineup that features five hitters with a below average strikeout rate against right handed pitching.

DraftKings at -130. Luis Severino has been an unmitigated disaster at home this season. Pitching to a 7.04 ERA, the A’s have gone 1-6 with four pushes in the first five innings in Severino’s eleven home starts. He’ll now face the red hot Blue Jays who own an .863 OPS over the last two weeks versus righties. I’ll trust Max Scherzer to hold down the A’s offense early.

FanDuel. Love this spot for Joe Ryan tonight. He’s been dominant at home, pitching to a 2.86 ERA and a 33.9% K%. Always excelling against righties (38% K% at home), he’ll see six of them in the Pirates lineup tonight. The Pirates have been brutal against righties on the road, with a 29% K% and .508 OPS dating back to June 1st (440+ plate appearances).

DraftKings. Chase Burns has cleared this strikeout line in two of his three starts this season. The one miss, against the Red Sox, came in a game where he was seemingly tipping his pitches - but he’s since cleaned that up. He’ll now get the elite matchup against the Rockies away from Coors Field. Colorado is running a 28.6% strikeout rate in away games against righties this season (worst in baseball), with a .609 OPS (third worst). And against power pitching, the Rockies have struck out in 33.8% of their plate appearances. The Rockies also swing at the most out of zone pitches, which should help mitigate any wildness.

DraftKings. CJ Abrams has been the catalyst for the upstart Nationals offense all season. Not only does he lead the team in runs (61), but he ranks 11th overall. And he’s been on a tear of late, scoring a run in 32 of his last 48 starts, which includes his latest run of touching home plate in 16 of his last 20 outings. Today, he’ll face off against Miles Mikolas, who he is 5/13 off of) including 2/3 earlier this year). Mikolas has been in poor form, with a 7.75 ERA over his last seven starts. With some hot bats behind him (James Wood, Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell), I love Abrams to score tonight. I have fair price on this closer to -130.

Bet365 at -125. Mike Soroka has failed to clear this outs line in eight of twelve starts, including six of seven on the road. Pitching to a 5.40 ERA, he’s struggled when facing lineups the third time through the order, allowing a 1.133 OPS. Facing a Cardinals team that’s produced an above average .752 OPS over the last two weeks against righties, I expect Soroka to once again fail to finish six innings.

FanDuel. Taj Bradley has remained under this strikeout line in eleven of eighteen starts this season, including each of his last six. With only 84 punchouts in 97.2 innings, Bradley’s 20.3% K% has him in the 38th percentile of all pitchers. He also, very notably, has maintained a sub-20% strikeout rate when he pitches outside, each of the last two seasons. Bradley will face the scorching hot Red Sox lineup today. Boston is only striking out 18% of the time against righties over the last two weeks, while putting up a ridiculous 1.005 OPS.

DraftKings. The Mets failed me in Game 1 when they failed to hit Charlie Morton, but I’m headed right back to the well in Game 2. The Mets will face Tomoyuki Sugano, who has remained under this outs line in each of his last five outings (8.87 ERA). With the Orioles only deploying two bullpen arms in the first game, I’ll take my chances that Sugano’s leash will be short the third time through the order (.800 OPS allowed). The Mets are the most patient team in baseball (3.95 pitches per plate appearance), and have had their way against low velocity finesse pitchers.

Caesar’s. Charlie Morton has allowed at least five hits in nine of his thirteen starts this season. With 85 hits allowed in 77.1 innings, Morton’s .255 expected batting average allowed ranks him in the 38th percentile. Allowing a hit for every 4.2 batters faced, and having regained the Orioles’ coaching staff’s trust, Morton should be in line for a big workload today, in the front end of a double-header.

FanDuel. Dylan Cease will face a softer than expected Diamondbacks lineup tonight, as Arizona will be without Pavin Smith, Josh Naylor and both of their top catchers. Cease has been solid at home this season, with a 2.76 ERA and 30% K%. While the Diamondbacks have mostly been stingy with strikeouts this season, they are above average at 23.4% against right handers in away games. Coming off a game where they punched out 12 times, I like Cease to miss some bats tonight.

Caesar’s. Eric Lauer has registered 51 strikeouts over 51 innings this season. Moving from the bullpen into the rotation, the lefty has maintained a strong 24.8% K% as a starter. Fully stretched out (92 pitches over six innings in his last start), he’ll get a White Sox lineup that’s been the most strikeout prone against lefties over the last six weeks, at a 29% K%.

FanDuel. Hunter Brown has been virtually unhittable at home this season. Pitching to a 1.01 ERA, he’s notched 59 strikeouts in just 44.2 innings, clearing this K line in six of seven starts. He’ll now get the Guardians who are mired in a tough slump, with only a .575 OPS over the last two weeks against right handed pitching, along with a 23% strikeout rate. And the Guardians are very left-handed heavy, likely starting seven to eight southpaws in the lineup today. Brown has rung up 36.9% of lefties he’s faced. I’m personally betting this to win 1.2 betting units.