Prop's Picks (1 Live)
FanDuel. Braxton Ashcraft has cleared this strikeout line in nine of 15 starts. His curveball, which has yielded a 43% whiff rate to lefties while registering 30 strikeouts, has helped Ashcraft develop strong reverse splits. The Pirates righty has a 31% strikeout rate against southpaws, which should bode well against the lefty heavy Mariners. Seattle will likely start at least six lefties tonight, and are a strikeout prone team as is (23.5% K% against righties over the last two weeks). Plus, their bats have gone ice cold, with just a .589 OPS in that same split.
DraftKings. Jose Soriano has stayed under this outs line in nine of his last 12 outings. While his stuff is electric, he does struggle to stay efficient, needing 3.99 pitches per at bat, and yielding a 12% walk rate (14th percentile). His zone rate of 43.8% is the 12th lowest out of 140 pitchers with 50+ innings this season. The Orioles have the sixth lowest team chase rate, the seventh highest walk rate against righties (10%), and see the third most pitches per plate appearance (4.00). Look for Soriano to struggle with his efficiency today.
FanDuel. Parker Messick is under this line in 10/15 starts, including nine of his last 11. Struggling the third time through the order (.275 average allowed), Messick has been pulled in the middle of the sixth inning five times by manager Stephen Vogt. The Guardians rookie will have a tough test tonight against a White Sox lineup that has crushed lefties at home all season, to the tune of an .825 OPS and 126 wRC+. The South-Siders also possess a gaudy .855 OPS as a team when facing a starter the third time through the order. Look for another quick hook for Messick as soon as the lineup flips to the third time through.
FanDuel. Shane McClanahan has remained under this outs line in 11/14 starts this season, his first since 2023. After a strong start to his campaign, he’s struggled over his last three starts, allowing 19 hits, eight walks and ten runs in just 12.2 innings. With the Rays continuing to manage his workload, McClanahan is averaging only 79 pitches per start. Even in a plus spot against the Royals, I’m taking the under on 15.5 outs for the Rays lefty in almost any matchup, until the Rays let him off his leash.
DraftKings. Kyle Bradish made me look foolish for betting the under on his outs prop in his last outing, as he finished 7.2 clean innings against the Mariners. But despite that start, Bradish has struggled on the road with a 5.09 ERA and .326 OBA, staying under this line in six of seven outings. He’s also struggled against righties, allowing an .853 OPS. He’ll face seven righties in the Angels lineup tonight in Los Angeles. The Halos have been hitting: .834 OPS over the last two weeks against righties. Coming back on four days rest, I see Bradish regressing back towards his 4.12 xERA tonight.
DraftKings. Paul Goldschmidt has turned back the clock; since the beginning of May, the 16-year pro is hitting .309 with a .927 OPS. Over that same span against lefties, Goldy is 25/52 with six homers (and an MLB leading 1.465 OPS). He’s cleared this bases line in 12 of the last 14 games started by southpaws, which he’ll face tonight. Framber Valdez has been very hittable this season, with a .254 xBA (34th percentile) and a xSLG of .407 (would be his second worst mark). Goldschmidt is an excellent sinker-ball hitter off lefties, as well as curveballs and changeups. While only 1/5 against Framber last season, all four balls the Yankee first baseman put in play had an exit velocity of at least 103 MPH.
FanDuel. Dylan Cease has been tremendous in his first season as a Blue Jay. With 110 strikeouts in 73 innings, he’s cleared this line in ten of 13 outings, including each of his last seven starts. His advanced stats have been dominant: 3.04 xERA and a 31.4% called + swinging strike rate (a career high). He’ll face the Astros, who continue to get too much respect on strikeout props based on prior years. This season, Houston is above league average at 22% against righties. A right-handed dominant lineup plays into Cease’s better split (although he’s been great against both sides this season: 38.2% K% vs. righties and 34.9% vs. lefties). Take Cease to continue to roll at home tonight.
DraftKings. After missing all of 2025, the Pirates seem inclined to bring Jared Jones along slowly. Through four starts, Jones has been kept to 74-77 pitches. While at some point, the Pirates might let Jones off his leash - this doesn’t feel like the spot/environment. For one, Jones will face seven lefties, the split he’s allowing an absurd .439 average (.378 xBA) - mainly due to diminished returns on his fastball. And the Rockies have been scorching righties at home since the weather has turned: since May 20th, Colorado has a .865 OPS in this split (second best mark in baseball). Jones’ piggyback partner Carmen Mlodzinski is not available, but the Pirates have plenty of fresh bullpen arms with a day off on tap tomorrow.
DraftKings. Let’s try this again - we were on Nathan Eovaldi’s strikeout prop yesterday, before he was scratched. We get a better price today, presumably with some injury risk baked in. But this is a great spot for Eovaldi against a right-handed heavy Padres lineup. San Diego should have at least six righties in the lineup today, which feeds into Eovaldi’s better split (24% K% and a .225 xBA). With him only being pushed back one day, I’ll assume the risk and take this line, which the righty has cleared in 10/14 starts, including 9/11 against teams outside the top 10 in K% against righties (Padres are 25th).
DraftKings. Robert Gasser is under this line in four of five starts this season, with the lone miss coming in outlier hitting conditions in Las Vegas. Overall, he’s a high whiff, high walk, and low contact pitcher who is allowing an xBA of .187 (95th percentile). Dealing with a multitude of injuries, the Braves are only hitting .233 over the last month against lefties with an above average walk rate (9.4%). Gasser also isn’t typically afforded a long leash the third time through the order, and the Brewers pen is in good shape.
FanDuel (+137). I like this as a sneaky spot for Taj Bradley. The Twins righty has cleared this line in 8/13 starts. While the Diamondbacks are tough to strikeout on paper, they are surprisingly playing into Bradley’s better split by starting six lefty hitters - Bradley has a 27.8% K% and .234 xBA against the reverse platoon. And six of the D-Backs have at least a 20% K% against righties this season. Additionally, Arizona is not hitting, with just a .647 OPS over the last two weeks against righties.
Caesar’s. Well, I was on Nathan Eovaldi’s strikeouts in this matchup, before he was scratched earlier today. Mackenzie Gore will make the start instead, and even though he’s on four days rest, his preparation for the week could have been geared towards an expected extra day. Either way, the Padres bats have slowly come around against lefties, and have noticeably taken a more patient approach of late. Over the last two weeks, the Padres have a bottom ten chase rate and swing rate and overall this season see the eighth most pitches per plate appearance. As is, Gore is under this line in nine of 14 full appearances this season.
Caesar’s. Andrew Abbott has stayed under this outs line in nine of 15 games this season, including five of seven on the road. He’ll have a stiff test today in the Bronx against the Yankees. The Bombers own an .855 OPS against lefties at home. Abbott’s zone% has plummeted to 47.8% this season (it had been north of 50% in each of his prior two campaigns), as he’s been a casualty of the tighter ABS strike zones. The Yankees own the fifth lowest team chase rate, which should make it difficult for Abbott to stay efficient today.
DraftKings. I like this matchup for Cam Schlittler tonight. The Cy Young candidate is under this line in 9/15 starts this season, including 5/6 against teams in the bottom half of batting average against right handers. The one exception was the Guardians, who started nine lefties that night. The Reds, who at .227 rank 27th against righties this season, project to start six righties tonight. Schlittler is dominant against this split, with a .171 average allowed (.200 xBA). And the Reds patient approach should especially burn them tonight. Schlittler pounds the zone (11th highest rate amongst qualifiers), but the Reds have both the sixth lowest in-zone swing rate and in-zone contact rate. There should be plenty of contact-less pitches from the Yankees ace tonight.
Caesar’s. Even though Roki Sasaki has looked better of late, this is still a high line for the second-year pro. He’s under this outs line in 9/12 starts, pitching to a 4.76 ERA (4.37 xERA). Needing 4.02 pitches per plate appearance (14th percentile amongst qualifiers), he’ll face an Orioles lineup that’s third in that metric, and has the sixth lowest team chase rate.