B365 at -115. The Giants are virtually out of the playoff race, but I’ll still back their workhorse ace to get the job done here. Logan Webb is finishing off a yet another strong season, with a 3.27 ERA. His strikeout rate of 26% and called plus swinging strike rate are his best since 2021, as his reworked changeup served as a weapon in the K department. He’s excelled at home with a 2.72 xFIP. He’s cleared this line in 12/17 home starts, and should thrive against a weaker Cardinals lineup.

Caesar’s. Despite stumbling a bit of late, this is a soft line for Framber Valdez, especially at home. The lefty owns a 2.21 ERA in Houston, and has cleared this line in 11 of 14 starts. Even against a hot Mariners lineup, I expect the Astros to lean on their ace in a crucial spot.

FanDuel at +122. There are some 5.5 lines floating out there, but with significant juice. I’m opting for the plus-money at 6.5 for Nolan McLean’s strikeouts. The rookie has been incredible in his first stint in the big leagues, with a 1.19 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. He’s cleared this line in four of six starts, and I like his chances to continue on that trend. The Nationals have a 25% strikeout rate over the last two weeks against righties.

DraftKings. Let’s get it out of the way at the top: I’m fading a legend of the game in his last regular season start in the only stadium he’s ever called home. That being said, Clayton Kershaw is under this line in 10 of his last 12 starts. The Dodgers have been cautious with his workload, and I don’t see them pushing Kershaw too far tonight. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if he got a quick mid-inning ing hook to allow the crowd an opportunity to celebrate. The Giants have maintained a below average strikeout rate since the All Star Break, and hit Kershaw hard (with only two strikeouts) just last week.

Caesar’s. Garrett Crochet has cleared this line in 18 of 30 starts this season, including six of his last nine. He’ll face the Rays, who have a 26% strikeout rate against lefties since the beginning of August, and have been susceptible to power pitching all season. Crochet is coming off back-to-back double digit strikeout outings, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes it three in a row tonight.

Caesar’s. Gavin Williams has remained under this line in 18 of his 29 starts, including nine of his last 12. The Tigers are hitting .230 over the last two weeks against righties, and have been patient at the plate with the sixth lowest chase rate over the last month. The latter stat is pertinent, as Williams’ zone rate is in the lower third of pitchers with at least 100 IP. I’m counting on long counts and a high pitch count for Williams, which should limit how many batters he faces.

B365. Hurston Waldrep is coming off a shaky outing against the Astros, but overall has cleared this strikeout line in five of his last seven starts. He’ll face off against the Nationals who have a 25% K% rate over the last two weeks against righties. The lefty-heavy Nats should allow Waldrep to unleash his best pitch, his splitter, which has a 43% whiff rate versus lefties, and a .103 average against.

Caesar’s. Shohei Ohtani owns an absurd 33% strikeout rate this season. While his outings have varied by pitch count, he should once again be in line for about 85 pitches or five full innings tonight. He’ll face a tough Phillies lineup, but one that has been striking out at a higher clip of late (22% over the last two weeks against righties), and 27% against power pitchers all season.

Caesar’s. Cade Horton has been electric since the All-Star Break, with a 0.85 ERA, and 28 hits allowed across 52.1 innings. He’s remained under this line in nine of those ten starts, with the one miss being at Coors Field. He’ll face a Pirates lineup that’s hitting .178 over the last two weeks against righties. Plus, Horton is having his innings closely monitored after only throwing 34.1 last season (he’s up to 139 in 2025). Converted starter Aaron Civale is fresh in the bullpen, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Horton is on a very short leash.

DraftKings. Going right back to the Bryan Woo well, as he has won nine of his 13 home starts. He’ll face off against an Angels lineup that’s mired in an extended slump, with a .627 OPS and 74 wRC+ against righties over the last month. Rookie Mitch Farris goes for the Angels - the Mariners have hit lefties well, with a .793 OPS and 123 wRC+ over the last month. Two teams going in opposite directions, I’ll gladly back the team with momentum right now.

DraftKings. Sonny Gray has allowed 165 hits over 163.2 innings this season, allowing at least five in 18 of his 29 outings. This includes 15 hits allowed over his two starts against the Brewers, who have solid numbers against the Cardinals righty. Overall, Milwaukee’s hitters have a .284 average against righties over the last two weeks. I have the Gray projected around 5.5 hits allowed.

FanDuel. Hunter Brown has cleared this line in 18 of 28 starts, with 190 strikeouts in 167.2 innings. He’ll face a Braves lineup that’s been league average on the strikeout front against righties since the All-Star Break, but have also been mired in a slump. The Braves .513 team OPS and 45 wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks are the worst in baseball by a wide margin. I’m counting on Brown to have no issues with this lineup tonight.

FanDuel at -128. This is a high outs line for Andre Pallante, who has not been clearing this with any regularity of late. Since the All-Star Break, Pallante has remained under 16.5 outs in eight of ten starts, while pitching to a 6.89 ERA. He’ll face a hot Brewers lineup, who have the sixth highest OPS against righties over the last month (.784).

DraftKings. This final stretch of the season is way too crucial for the Mariners - it’s hard to justify a 17.5 outs line for Bryce Miller. The M’s are 1.5 games atop of the surging Rangers for the final AL Wild Card spot, and I expect every game to be managed tightly. Miller has pitched to a 5.33 ERA this season, remaining under this line in 13 of 14 starts. While the Angels offense has slumped, they can put out a righty dominated lineup, which plays to Miller’s worse split (.813 OPS allowed).

DraftKings. David Peterson has remained under this line in 17 of 27 starts this season, including 10 of his last 14 outings. The southpaw has struggled of late, pitching to a 6.68 ERA since the beginning of August. He’ll face a hot Phillies lineup that he has plenty of history against - and sans Kyle Schwarber, Peterson’s strikeout numbers have waned against Philly.