Prop Bet Guy
Doug
PropBetGuy burst into the public consciousness in 2020 and quickly developed a massive following. Actively posting and recapping all of his bets on Twitter/X, making regular appearances on VSIN and ESPN Radio, PropBetGuy became synonymous nationwide with sharp, transparent and profitable prop betting. A former daily contributor at Action Network, he bets almost exclusively on player props in the NFL, NBA, MLB, CBB and CFB. Since the inception of his social media presence, PropBetGuy has recorded a profit of over 280 betting units, at a 6 percent ROI. Almost all of his bets are 1-unit plays, with rare 1.5-unit plays. PropBetGuy is coming off a terrific 2025 NFL season at SportsLine in which he went 131-101 (plus 12.85 units). Entering 2026, PropBetGuy sported a career 57 percent record on NFL player props (+122 units at a 7.5% ROI) and a 58 percent percent mark on college basketball player props (+52 units, 9 percent ROI). He had profited 67 units on NBA player props and 52 units on MLB player props as well. Now you will find the vast majority of PropBetGuy's plays, including his top bets, only on SportsLine. For PropBetGuy media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
@PropBetGuyGet Access ToALL PICKS FROM PROP & THE REST OF OUR EXPERTS
Prop's Picks
Jesus Luzardo has a 90% hit rate on this player prop line over his last 10 starts. …
Grayson Rodriguez is under this line in 10/11 starts. …
Caesar’s. Landen Roupp has stayed under this line in half of his 22 starts this season, including 6/9 home starts. His counting stats at home are actually better, but his pitch efficiency numbers (4.38 pitches per plate appearance) take a nosedive at Oracle Park. He’s also coming off two subpar performances, and will not face the red hot Tigers offense. Detroit has been on fire coming out of the All Star Break with a .897 OPS and 149 wRC+ against righties. The Tigers are also an excellent hitting team against righty’s sinkers, hitting above .300.
DraftKings/Caesars. Taj Bradley has struggled away from Target Field this season (relative to his performance at home). His ERA spikes to 4.17, his walk rate jumps to 11.7% and pitches per plate appearance to 4.07. As a result, he’s under this line in 8/13 road contest. Today will be tough, as the Brewers have an .818 OPS at home versus righties since June 1st, with an 11.2% walk rate. Plus, the Brewers take a patient approach at the plate, with the lowest team chase rate.
Ronel Blanco has stayed under this line in 2/3 starts since coming back from the injured list. He’s been capped at 86 pitches in each start, as the Astros don’t seem intent to let the righty fully loose just yet. More pertinently to this bet, Blanco has really struggled, allowing 19 baserunners in just 14.2 innings. That shouldn’t bode well against a Padres lineup that’s second in OBP against righties since the All Star Break (.368). The Padres have also revamped their approach at the plate, with the fifth lowest chase rate over the last month.
DraftKings. I’m going to fade Kevin Gausman in his first start as a Cub. THe righty has struggled to garner strikeouts on the road this season with a 22% K%, staying under this line in four of ten starts. Despite some recent success, he has a tough matchup today against the Royals. Kansas City has a 19.5% K% against righties at home this season, and they should be able to throw six lefties at Gausman (his worse split).
FanDuel. Janson Junk is under this line in 9/15 outings this season, including each of the last six. He’s been atrocious the third time through the order (1.109 OPS allowed) which has led to quick hooks, even when he’s pitching well (78 pitches per start over his last four, despite a decent 3.86 ERA). He also struggles more against lefties, who have an .856 OPS against him. None of this bodes well for Junk tonight, as he’ll face the hot Braves (.813 OPS against righties in the second half) who have six lefties in the lineup tonight.
FanDuel (-144). Ranger Suarez returned from injury and was held to exactly 64 and 65 pitches his last two starts. While I expect that to increase tonight, teams conventionally build pitchers back up in 15-20 pitch increments. I don’t see Suarez going for more than 85-pitches tonight, as the Red Sox look to keep him fresh for their postseason push. That makes this a favorable spot for the under. I’m ok with under 15.5 outs for a partial unit as well.
DraftKings. Nolan McLean has stayed under this hits allowed line in 16/22 starts. The Mets rookie’s .209 average allowed and .218 expected batting average allowed are both elite amongst MLB starting pitchers. Pairing with his higher walk rate (8.6%), and McLean is tougher to string hits against. The Guardians have been one of the worst hitting teams against righties this year at .235, and .205 over the last two weeks. Plus, their patient approach at the plate will help our cause for this prop.
Caesar’s. This entire season, the home/road splits for the Athletics when they face left-handed pitching has been stark. At home, they hit .282 - on the road, they’re at .205. On the road today, against the Reds’ Andrew Abbott, I don’t see them being able to string hits together. Abbott has kept 15 of his last 17 opponents under this line, pitching to a 3.09 ERA over that span.
DraftKings. Despite being blanked last night, I’m going to back the Mariners to pull out the win in a rematch against the Tigers. And specifically, I expect it to be on the heels of yet another dominant home outing from Bryan Woo. The righty has a 2.20 ERA and .207 wOBA at home, while picking up the win in six of nine starts (16/23 dating back to last season). The Tigers had the luxury of Troy Melton pitching yesterday, but today is a bullpen day. Expect the Mariners bats to bounce back.
FanDuel. Sean Burke has been one of the main reasons that the White Sox are firmly in the playoff picture this late in the season. The righty has pitched to a 3.04 ERA (3.46 xERA), and an in season adjustment has lead to a surge in his strikeouts. Since lowering his arm angle and tweaking his pitch mix (more sliders), Burke has cleared this line in 11/12 starts. Over that span he has a 2.27 ERA, a 30.5% called plus swinging strike rate and a 33.5% K%, all in the top six of qualifiers. The Red Sox, despite being red hot in the win column, remain an average strikeout team - 21.8% since July 1st versus righties.
Caesar’s / MGM. Hunter Brown remains one of the tougher pitchers to get a hit off of. Holding hitters to a .202 average (.200 xBA), Brown has stayed under this line in 8/10 starts this season. And by virtue of his sky-high 13.5% walk rate, Brown only allows a hit every 24 pitches thrown, or 5.9 batters faced. While the Blue Jays are one of the better righty hitting teams, they’re only hitting .233 against this side of the platoon since July 1st.
Caesar’s. After their sell-off yesterday, Troy Melton assumes the role of Tigers ace. The righty has pitched like one, with a 1.75 era (3.26 xERA) this season. He’s able to avoid hard contact and barrels at an above average rate, leading to an elite .220 xBA and .287 xwOBA (74th and 85th percentile’s respectively). He’s under this line in 10/11 starts, and has only allowed even 2+ runs in three of those outings. He’ll square off against the Mariners who’ve only managed a .654 OPS against righties since the All Star Break. And as per usual, they’ve struggled to produce at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park all season (.714 OPS versus righties).
FanDuel. I love this plus odds look at Logan Henderson’s strikeouts today. The Brewers righty has cleared this line in 5/9 starts despite a disproportionate schedule - only 2/9 teams he’s faced were in the bottom half of the league of K% at the time. Today, he’ll see the Pirates who have the fifth highest strikeout rate against righties this season. And over the last two weeks: 25.8% K% while only managing a .667 OPS. The Pirates have also struggled against power pitchers all season, accruing a 30% K%. Look for Henderson’s changeup to give the Pirates fits today.