There are currently a total of three teams in Ligue 1 who are averaging less than one goal scored per game. Nantes have scored 19 in 20 matches. Le Havre have scored 16 in 20 matches. Then we have Auxerre, who have a league low 14 goals scored in their 20 matches. This team has the worst attack in Ligue 1, and haven't scored in any of their last four league matches. All four of those matches saw them fail to score, lose, and hit the under. Auxerre unders should be an auto bet for the time being.
Oh hello exact same bet I make every single week! It's nice to see you again! Lorient continue to be disrespected by the books and I can't for the life of me figure out why. After beating Nantes 2-1 in the last matchday they've moved their unbeaten streak to 11 matches across all competitions. They'll be traveling to take on a Brest team who hasn't been great in the new year. Brest have just a single win in their last five, and I'll gladly take this spread once again.
We absolutely nailed Lens last week. We talked about how they were the better team and would be Le Havre, but it was going to be frustrating, cagey and low scoring. Lens dominated every possible stat, and won 1-0. This is a team fighting to beat PSG in Ligue 1, and to do that, you have to be methodical, and you have to be willing to slow things down. I see a similar game plan against a Rennes side who was just hosed by Monaco. Lens at home love a 1-0 victory.
Lens have been a nightmare for teams all season long, and even more so when they're playing in front of their fans at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Lens have played 10 matches at home and won nine of those. Their one loss came to Lyon in the first match of the season. They've been one of the most consistent sides in Europe, and know how to frustrate their opponents and make their time in Lens awful. They also don't need to blow teams out, as they've won their last two home matches, 1-0 each time. Expect an out of shape Rennes team to struggle here.
Lille are in some of the worst form we've seen in years. The team is still fifth on the table, but they are bleeding points away right now. They have lost their last four Ligue 1 matches. And yet here I am, betting on them to score some dang goals. Lille will not be given a better chance this season for an easy "bounceback match". Metz are the worst club with the worst defense in the league, having conceded 46 goals. Lille played them three months ago and scored six goals in that match. I know they've been out of form, but I'm betting on them to find their scoring boots against Metz.
Lille have been just horrendous in recent weeks. They have one win and six losses in their last seven matches. They are getting bullied by teams like Lyon, Rennes, Strasbourg and more. Something is just off with this club, and manager Bruno Genesio is dealing with backlash from players and fans a like. This team needs a win, desperately, so the timing is perfect to play Metz. These two met in October of last year and Lille ran over them winning 6-1. Metz has the worst defense in the league, and this is the rare chance for Lille to find their footing again. They have to go for it.
I know that PSG are the big dogs of Ligue 1, and they're the understandable favorites in this matchup. I wouldn't even be shocked if PSG win this match and pickup three points. I don't think, however, if they win it'll be by multiple goals. PSG are on tired legs after two UCL matches in eight days, and six of their last seven matches have been decided by a single goal. Gary O'Neil has really turned Strasbourg around and has Joaquin Panichelli and Martial Godo looking terrifying on attack. I think Strasbourg get the draw here, but a full goal is too much.
These two teams gave us one of the best matches of the Ligue 1 season back in October. These teams met in Paris and proceeded to give us a thrilling 3-3 draw. While I'm not sure if we'll quite get six goals again, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw four or even five goals. PSG are meeting Strasbourg at a bad time. Strasbourg new manager Gary O' Neil has them in fantastic form since he came in. They took down Lille last matchday 4-1, and will be looking at a PSG team who is tired after a grueling 1-1 draw against Newcastle in UCL. I expect Strasbourg to give them hell, and for goals to be found once more.
I've been a big advocate of fading Nice for a while now. This club started off the season in fantastic form, but fell off a cliff near the end of October. This is a team that in 2 weeks back last year took points off Lyon, Lille and Rennes in three games, but now they're consistently dropping points to everyone. They did managed to beat Nantes last matchday, but that's not enough to convince me they are "back". Brest haven't been a great club either, but two teams out of form with a history of scrappy draws, has me taking the team on the spread.
Metz are dead last on the Ligue 1 table with only 12 points and a goal-differential of -24 19 matches into the season. While they are the favorites for relegation, they are at least fighting to prevent it. This team has 21 goals scored, and are pressing regardless of their opponents which has led to some exciting fixtures. They have seen over 2.5 goals hit in three matches straight and enter this match off a 5-2 loss to Lyon. They have the worst defense in the league so to get points they have to press. At plus numbers I'll take this every single time.
Auxerre are sitting 17th on the Ligue 1 table table at the moment two points below the relegation zone. The big problem with Auxerre this season is their lack of goals. They are one of the two teams in Ligue 1 who are averaging less than a goal per game, as they've only had 14 goals in their 19 matches. They take on a Toulouse side who has been on fire and out of their eight league wins, four of them have come over the last five matches. They have a tremendous frontline, and will be looking at Auxerre like a mouth-watering meal as they look to pick up three more points.
Lyon have won nine matches straight dating back to the beginning of December as manager Paulo Fonseca has his men in tip top shape. Not only are they winning, but they're matches have seen goals galore. Six of the last seven have seen over 2.5 goals hit, and their last two matches have seen 13 goals combined. This is a team who doesn't need to play defense because they're capable of scoring multiple goals. I was surprised this line wasn't 3.5, and will play this for a full unit.
Lyon have really turned things around in the last couple months. They just beatdown PAOK 4-2 in Europa league, and before that took down Metz, Young Boys, Brest and back in the French Cup, they beat Lille 2-1 earlier this month. Lyon have been truly finding their form and have returned back to fourth on the table on the back of this run. Lille have lost their last three Ligue 1 matches straight and struggle on the road. This should be an easy three points for Lyon.
Monaco earlier this week played Juventus to a grueling nil-nil draw at home in Champions League play. They missed mulitple chances for goals, and looked exhausted throughout the majority of the game. This continues Monaco's poor form. They have not won a Ligue 1 match since November of last year, and their home form has been very shaky. I think Rennes win this outright and have no problem playing the spread.
Stade Rennes is a high-scoring team so I understand why people are expecting goals, but I don't see a shootout while this Monaco side tries to fix their poor form. Manager Sebastien Pocognoli has them playing a bit more of a defensive playstyle in recent weeks. They're coming off of back-to-back nil-nil matches against Le Havre and Juventus. This game could go off the rails if we get an early goal, but I see Monaco slowing things down, especially after UCL play.