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Tom Fornelli
Tom Fornelli
#TrustTheProcess
A CBS Sports writer since 2010, the entertaining Fornelli is perhaps best known for his college football expertise. Now he's spreading his wings on SportsLine, demonstrating his prowess in every single sport. You'll get maximum access to Fornelli's picks only on SportsLine. For Tom Fornelli media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS
+400
Record: 4-0
# 5 nfl Expert
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New Orleans 7 @ Carolina 26 | 09/19 | 5:00 PM UTC

OVER 44.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: This total is just too low. The Saints offense still looks like the Saints offense, even without Drew Brees, and I expect it to move the ball against Carolina. The Panthers offense looked interesting last week, too, despite finishing with only 19 points. Finally, we can't overlook the QBs. Neither Jameis Winston or Sam Darnold turned the ball over last week. Do you expect that to happen two weeks in a row? I don't, and turnovers often lead to more points.

+180 4-2 IN LAST 6 NFL PICKS

Cincinnati 17 @ Chicago 20 | 09/19 | 5:00 PM UTC

Chicago -2.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I'm looking to take advantage of some Week 1 overreaction here. The Bears scored only 14 points against the Rams on SNF, but that included a red zone turnover, and once the Bears got down, they had to abandon a run game that had been effective. I don't expect them to struggle nearly as much against this Bengals defense, and I also suspect we're going to see more of Justin Fields. Bears coach Matt Nagy said he was planning to use Fields more against the Rams, but the game got out of hand so there was a change of plans.

+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS
+391 5-1-1 IN LAST 7 CIN ATS PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 CHI ATS PICKS

Las Vegas 26 @ Pittsburgh 17 | 09/19 | 5:00 PM UTC

OVER 47

LOSS

ANALYSIS: I understand there are some concerns about Pittsburgh's offense despite the Steelers win over Buffalo last week, but to me that was more about the Buffalo defense. There should be less resistance against Las Vegas at home this week, and the Raiders offense is likely to find room to operate itself. This has all the makings of an enjoyable shootout.

+180 4-2 IN LAST 6 NFL PICKS
+180 4-2 IN LAST 6 LV O/U PICKS

Auburn 20 @ Penn St. 28 | 09/18 | 11:30 PM UTC

Penn St. -5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Hello, my name is Tom Fornelli, and there are no circumstances in which I'm going to trust Auburn QB Bo Nix on the road. Nix is barely above average most of the time, and has significant home/road splits. Playing in his first road game of the season, in front of 100,000 people, I expect we see the return of Bo Picks.

+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 AUBURN ATS PICKS
+177 4-2 IN LAST 6 PSU ATS PICKS

Alabama 31 @ Florida 29 | 09/18 | 7:30 PM UTC

Alabama -14.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Florida fans have clamored for QB Anthony Richardson to start, but I don't think Dan Mullen is an idiot. I think that if Richardson were ready to start, Mullen would have him doing so. This means the Gators will use both Richardson and Emory Jones, and neither is capable of doing enough in the air to keep up with Alabama for 60 minutes. So even if Alabama gets off to a slow start in a tough environment, the Tide should roll in the second half.

+470 8-3 IN LAST 11 BAMA ATS PICKS
+159 6-4 IN LAST 10 FLA ATS PICKS