ANALYSIS: A swing game...

ANALYSIS: If they keep putting Jimmy Butler's point total this high I'm going to keep betting the under. Since the second round, Butler has scored 28 points in only four of 12 games. He's shooting 42.4% from the field in that time, and has been reliant on getting to the free throw line to score. He doesn't get to the line nearly as often on the road as at home.

ANALYSIS: While individual matchups aren't very predictive when it comes to NBA props, Nikola Jokic has performed well against Miami and in his matchup against Bam Adebayo. Historically, Denver has used Jokic on offense to drag Adebayo out from beneath the basket and open up the lane for everybody else. This has had a negative impact on Jokic's rebounding, but his scoring and assist rates have been very high against the Heat. I'm betting on that to continue.

ANALYSIS: Denver has been dominant at home all season long, including the playoffs where it's 8-0. There's plenty of debate between "rested or rusted," but I'd rather be rested and a little rusty than worn the hell down, and Miami is worn the hell down. It just finished a seven-game war against Boston while Denver was chilling at home.

ANALYSIS: Max Strus just stopped getting rebounds and assists on the road. In Game 1 of the Knicks series, Strus finished with five rebounds and assists. He hasn't had more than three in a road game since. In three games in Boston in the series, he's had five total. If he's only had five combined in three road games, it doesn't make much sense to bet on him getting five tonight.