Northern Illinois might be the worst FBS team in the country. Last week it got crushed at home on homecoming by a Hawaii team that made the trip all the way from Honolulu to Dekalb, Illinois. Now that same team is on the road against a Rebels team that can still win the Mountain West.

Everybody is way to eager to write off USC in this spot, and I understand why. It's just, Ohio State is on the road with a first time starter at QB. Is it truly that crazy to think the Trojans can win this game?

My suspicion here is that, without Julian Sayin, and with a freshman QB making his first start, Ryan Day will lean on the run game far more than the Buckeyes have been. Their defense is good enough to limit USC and keep it from becoming a shootout.

The spread in this game says everything. Think of the dumpster fire Florida State has been these last couple of years. Then look at how it's favored by nearly a touchdown against Clemson, which has one of the most anemic offenses in the country.

The Cyclones were an early season surprise, but the surprise has lost its effectiveness. Now Iowa State is playing like the team I thought we'd see all year, and I'm skeptical it has an offense capable of keeping up with Oklahoma State, even at home.

I'm a bit worried that so many people in my world seem to be on Georgia Southern this week. It makes me feel like I'm stepping into a trap, but this is one of my favorite plays of the week.

I'm not saying Penn State shouldn't be favored here, but I don't know that the difference between these teams is as wide as the odds suggest. I trust Purdue's QB more than I do Penn State's.

Wake Forest is just a good football team. It's not great, but being good has been plenty good enough in ACC play, and this week the Deacs are at home off a bye against a Virginia team with an injury report longer than some Tolstoy novels.

Florida can be a bit unpredictable, but in this rivalry matchup, I'm backing the offensive coordinator who gave Georgia fits while at Georgia Tech. If Buster Faulkner could keep Georgia off-balance with the talent he had at Tech, what might he be capable of with the Gators?

If Colorado State is playing a football game, I'm betting the over. It won't win every time, but it's going to win often enough.

I want nothing to do with Coastal when it's favored, but it's enticing as an underdog due to the variance in its performance. Here, on the road against a Georgia State team that's fading a bit, I think the upset is more likely than the number suggests.

Even if Kansas State is without QB Avery Johnson, how often do we get the chance to bet against Colorado as a favorite? It's too rare an occurrence to pass up the opportunity.

The Illini offense has been moving slower lately, and now they're on the road with a true freshman QB making his first road start. They're likely to lean on the ground game even more. Meanwhile, Maryland is playing its first game since firing Mike Locksley and the school is offering free tuition to one lucky student that sticks around for all four quarters. There may be more Illini fans in attendance this Saturday.

In 2026, Wisconsin is the Iowa we're used to, and Iowa isn't. Oh, Iowa's defense is still good, but it's not forcing turnovers at the same rate, and the offense just lost its leading rusher for the season. I'd rather have the Badgers outright than with the points here.

Arizona's offense has been great on the season, but struggled on the road against BYU earlier this year. That was the only real defense it's seen. Tech may not be the 2025 Tech, but it still has a strong defense, and a questionable offense of its own.