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    Tom Fornelli

    #TrustTheProcess

    A CBS Sports writer since 2010, the entertaining Fornelli is perhaps best known for his college football expertise. He went 45-35 (plus $652) in the 2023 college football season. Fornelli co-hosts the popular Cover 3 Podcast and appears regularly on CBS Sports HQ. You'll get maximum access to Fornelli's picks only on SportsLine. For Tom Fornelli media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    @TomFornelli

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    Tom's Past Picks

    Jan 24 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    Providence
    67
    @ Seton Hall
    63
    Analysis:

    I see two programs headed opposite directions here. Seton Hall has been on an ascending trend for a few weeks now, and in my estimation, the market hasn't fully caught on. Meanwhile, the Friars have been getting incrementally worse as conference play rolls on.

    Pick Made: Jan 24, 7:55 pm UTC
    Jan 09 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Washington
    13
    @ Michigan
    34
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +325
    22-17-1 in Last 40 CFB ATS Picks
    +380
    6-2 in Last 8 WASH ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Washington will be a unique challenge for the Michigan defense in the same way it’s a unique challenge for every defense. There just aren’t many college football teams with three NFL-caliber receivers like Washington has. Still, if there's a defense in the country with a combination of pass rush and secondary strong enough to at least hold them in check, it’s Michigan. Although the Wolverines struggled moving the ball in the air against Alabama, the Crimson Tide have two future NFL cornerbacks. Washington doesn’t. It’ll be another close game, but one Michigan covers more often than not.

    Pick Made: Jan 02, 7:08 pm UTC
    Jan 02 2024, 2:00 am UTC
    League
    Texas
    31
    @ Washington
    37
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +1035
    17-6 in Last 23 CFB O/U Picks
    +700
    7-0 in Last 7 WASH O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    You can't give the playcallers involved with these teams a month to prepare for an opponent and not expect they'll cook up ways to roast each other's defense. I'm not entirely sure who wins this game in the end, but I'm confident they'll need at least 34 points to do so.

    Pick Made: Jan 01, 5:36 pm UTC
    Jan 01 2024, 10:00 pm UTC
    League
    Alabama
    20
    @ Michigan
    27
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +325
    22-17-1 in Last 40 CFB ATS Picks
    +520
    14-8 in Last 22 BAMA ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    I don't care about the narratives surrounding this game. These are two evenly-matched teams, but there's one player I believe will make the difference. As great as Michigan's defense has been, it hasn't faced a QB as dynamic as Alabama's Jalen Milroe. Right now, I trust Milroe to make a big play against the Michigan defense more than I trust JJ McCarthy to make one against Alabama's.

    Pick Made: Jan 01, 5:34 pm UTC
    Dec 03 2023, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Michigan
    26
    @ Iowa
    0
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +1035
    17-6 in Last 23 CFB O/U Picks
    +590
    7-1 in Last 8 MICH O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Michigan has absolutely no motivation to run up the score in this game. There's nothing for it to prove, so I fully expect that once the Wolverines gain control, they'll go ultra-conservative and bleed clock. And if somehow Iowa pulls off a shocking upset, it'll have to be a 6-3 kind of game.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 8:38 pm UTC
    Dec 03 2023, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Louisville
    6
    @ Florida State
    16
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +325
    22-17-1 in Last 40 CFB ATS Picks
    +270
    6-3-1 in Last 10 LVILLE ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    There are questions as to whether FSU backup QB Tate Rodemaker will be cleared to play in this game, but I'm not sure it matters. The difference between him and third-stringer Brock Glenn is minimal. Either way, I like Louisville to win and save the selection committee from sweating.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 8:37 pm UTC
    Dec 02 2023, 9:00 pm UTC
    League
    SMU
    26
    @ Tulane
    14
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +325
    22-17-1 in Last 40 CFB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    The injury to SMU QB Preston Stone is a bigger deal to me than the line in the game suggests. It's not that he's a world beater, it's that SMU is now relying on an inexperienced freshman QB in the biggest game its played all season. Take the talented, more experienced Green Wave.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 8:35 pm UTC
    Dec 02 2023, 9:00 pm UTC
    League
    Georgia
    24
    @ Alabama
    27
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +1035
    17-6 in Last 23 CFB O/U Picks
    +160
    5-3 in Last 8 UGA O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    These are phenomenal defenses, but don't let that distract you from the fact both teams have highly potent offenses as well. This is one of those times when there are simply too many dudes capable of creating big plays.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 8:32 pm UTC
    Dec 02 2023, 8:00 pm UTC
    League
    Boise St.
    44
    @ UNLV
    20
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +325
    22-17-1 in Last 40 CFB ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Boise State has looked better late in the season, but that run coincides with the schedule lightening up considerably. While a weaker schedule has played a role in UNLV getting this far as well, I don't see much of a difference in quality between these teams. I'll take the points.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 8:33 pm UTC
    Dec 02 2023, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Oregon
    31
    @ Washington
    34
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +1035
    17-6 in Last 23 CFB O/U Picks
    +700
    7-0 in Last 7 WASH O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    I don't expect this game to be as high-scoring as the first. Washington's offense has gotten progressively worse since then, while Oregon's defense has steadily improved. Washington has begun running the ball with greater frequency as well.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 8:30 pm UTC
    Nov 28 2023, 1:15 am UTC
    League
    Chicago
    12
    @ Minnesota
    10
    +80
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    There isn't much science here as much as gut feel. Opposing defenses have been keying on DJ Moore and Cole Kmet lately, and I get the sense there will be opportunities for Mooney tonight because of it.

    Pick Made: Nov 27, 7:32 pm UTC
    Nov 25 2023, 8:30 pm UTC
    League
    Wisconsin
    28
    @ Minnesota
    14
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +1035
    17-6 in Last 23 CFB O/U Picks
    +600
    6-0 in Last 6 WISC O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Before the season I expected Wisconsin's offense to get better as the year wore on. Thanks to injuries, the opposite has happened. Neither one of these teams has shown much of an ability to score lately.

    Pick Made: Nov 23, 5:07 pm UTC
    Nov 25 2023, 8:30 pm UTC
    League
    Virginia Tech
    55
    @ Virginia
    17
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +325
    22-17-1 in Last 40 CFB ATS Picks
    +185
    3-1 in Last 4 VATECH ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Virginia Tech has rebounded from an awful start and could get to a bowl game with a win here, but taking the Hokies as a road favorite is too much. This is a huge game for Virginia when you consider the tragedy that caused last year's game to be canceled. There's no way I can bet against the Cavaliers in this spot.

    Pick Made: Nov 23, 5:11 pm UTC
    Nov 25 2023, 5:00 pm UTC
    League
    Ohio State
    24
    @ Michigan
    30
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +1035
    17-6 in Last 23 CFB O/U Picks
    +590
    7-1 in Last 8 MICH O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Yes, these are two of the best defenses in the country, and yes, both of these offenses have struggled against the best defenses they've faced. I don't care. The winner of this game has averaged over 43 points by themselves the last seven meetings.

    Pick Made: Nov 23, 5:03 pm UTC
    Nov 25 2023, 1:30 am UTC
    League
    Oregon State
    7
    @ Oregon
    31
    +1262
    41-26-1 in Last 68 CFB Picks
    +325
    22-17-1 in Last 40 CFB ATS Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 OREG ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    I regret not getting this pick posted when the line was 14, but I'm still comfortable here. Oregon has blown the doors off teams it has a superior advantage over, and struggled to pull away from teams that can match its physicality. Oregon State has one of the best offensive lines in the country and should be able to stick around.

    Pick Made: Nov 23, 5:05 pm UTC