Jon's Past Picks
Atalanta are not the team we saw qualifying for UCL last season. The team that was largely gutted is now sitting 13th on the Serie and is 18th on the UCL standings. Meanwhile, they're taking against a Frankfurt team who may be struggling, but is an absolute beast to take on when playing at home. Frankfurt fans are rowdy, and terrorize everyone who comes to their stadium. Finally finding their goal scoring boots once again, I expect Frankfurt to win outright, so I have no problem taking the spread.
Frankfurt matches, like many Bundesliga matches in UCL this season, have been chalk full of goals. Their two home matches so far produced a total of 12 goals, as they were smacked by Liverpool at home 5-1, and smacked Galatasaray at home, 5-1 as well. We've seen one thing from manager Din Toppmoller and that is a foot on the gas strategy from start to finish in these big games. Neither team has a formidable defense, so this should be a game of goals with at least two needed by either side for victory.
The short answer to that question in the title is yes, the longer answer is yet, but I don't think they'll fix it until the next transfer window. Liverpool spent an unprecedented amount of money on their attack. There's two problems with that. The first and more obvious, is their defense is just awful and disjointed right now. The second problem, is that all their attackers, want to play in the same area. There's no diversity in pitch positioning, and Liverpool's frontline all want to share the same space, which they can't do. They might win this, but PSV at a 1.75 spread feels like a gift until Liverpool fix things.
If I was forced to bet on an exact scoreline, I'd bet on a 2-2 draw. The truth of the matter is, if this game ends in a draw, that's a good result for both sides. Both sides have pretty much guaranteed themselves a spot in the top eight, and the main concern for both ends is not to pick up any more injuries or suspensions. If the line was playable for Arsenal +.5, I would have taken that as well. I would stay off of either sides ML on this and just root for goals as we watch two of the best, of not the two best clubs in Europe. Bayern haven't lost all season, and I expect that to continue.
We have the classic "Unstoppable Force meets an Immovable Object" situation taking place at Emirates. Bayern Munich is regarded by many, the best attacking club in Europe. They have a scarily in form Harry Kane, Michael Olise. They have an insanely aggressive midfield. They have a Wunderkind in Lennert Karl. This team has played 18 matches this season and this over has hit in all 18. Meanwhile, Arsenal have played 4 UCL matches and haven't conceded yet. BUT. They're missing their best defender Gabriel to injury. Bayern Munich will not slow down and will take advantage of an Arsenal side missing their linchpin.
Y'all know me. I hate betting unders and will do everything in my power to avoid having to play an under, but this is a good number for a match featuring Pafos in this competition. Pafos are one of the clubs that many people, myself included, had no expectations in this competition. Qualifying was a success and they were supposed to be the punching bag for a lot of clubs. However, they've shown everyone, that they can play ball, have a solid defense, and don't mind grinding for points. They've played four matches so far. Two have ended 0-0, and one ended 1-0. They did get smacked by Bayern Munich, but so does everyone. Monaco's attack has been poor, and Pafos will sit 11 back.
There are some offensive juggernauts taking place in this years competition. Teams like Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Manchester City and more. Out of all the teams participating, it is Dortmund who has seen the most goals over their first four matches. They have played four matches so far and have outscored their opponents 13-11 over those games. Their defense has been shambolic, but luckily, their offense has been incredible. While Villarreal have had a brutal start in UCL, I expect them to press for a desperate three points here, which should lead to an open, high scoring match.
If this match took place pre-international break, I might have a different take here. But man does a fit Robert Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal spell danger at Stamford Bridge. While Barcelona are welcoming back a wealth of players, Chelsea just had news delivered that their best goal scorer, Cole Palmer, will not be back after picking up a new injury outside of practice. Chelsea will put up a good fight, but I'm expecting Barcelona to AT LEAST, get a draw.
I told everyone when Barcelona played Athletic Club take the over 3.5 and slam that line. Nothing has changed between now and then. I see Barcelona, I bet the over. It's that simple. Barcelona's last 10 matches have seen 44 goals across all competitions. Barcelona plays an extremely high line so expect Chelsea's players to find goals as well. I'm expecting a shootout, and I will continue to bet overs on all Barcelona matches.
Galatasaray playing at home in Istanbul are one of the largest cases we see in European football of home-field advantage. After beating Liverpool at home earlier this year, Mo Salah said "I had never played in such an atmosphere in my life, it was really hard to stay focused. Galatasaray is capable of shaking Premier League giants at home, which leads me to believe USG is going to struggle even more so. While Galatasaray will be missing the services of Victor Osimhen, Mauro Icardi is ready to step up in his place. When playing at home in Istanbul, they're on a recent run of 24 wins and nine draws, no losses. Back the home-field advantage.
Atalanta are an extremely frustrating team to bet on because man oh man do they love, not winning while also not losing. Atalanta have played 10 Serie A matches this season and 70% of those have ended in draws. They've also had four of their last five matches end in draws, as well. This is a team under manager Juric that just doesn't have that lethal final finish to push for another goal. They seem perfectly happy playing for a low scoring share of the spoils. Especially in a tricky matchup to France against a strong Marseille team, they'll be perfectly find picking up yet another draw. I'm taking the spread, knowing that Atalanta is capable on the counter-attack.
I understand that a three and a half goal might sound intimidating, however, we need to remember the gulf in quality between the two sides. The squad value of Inter Milan is over 700 million dollars, while Kairat is estimated just north of 12 million. Inter Milan can decide how much they want to win this match by, and with goal differential mattering in the standings, expect them not to slow down. Kairat did amazing to qualify, but that's where their accomplishments end. This should be a one sided run down by the Italian side.
Barcelona are one of the few clubs in European football that I always, always, always bet the over. Barcelona have hit both teams to score in their last eight matches across all competitions, and have hit both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in all of their UCL matches this season. Loaded with attacking talent and seeing big names like Lamine Yamal returning healthy, this is a team that does nothing but press under manager Hansi Flick. Club Brugge is good enough to get a goal in this match, especially at home, but to beat Barcelona, it'll take more than one. Expect goals from both ends of the pitch, and a lovely over 3.5 to hit.
Qarabag is a notoriously tough team to beat on the road, not just for other teams in the Azerbaijani league, but for teams all around Europe. They battered Copenhagen 2-0 in their opening home match of UCL, and before that defeated Benfica on the road 3-2. While I don't know if they'll be able to pull off the upset, I will take the spread against a Chelsea team that is riddled with injuries, and how have looked poor over the last couple weeks. My score prediction for this fixture is 2-1 to Chelsea. I love BTTS, I love goals, and I love Qarabag to make this tricky at home.
Olympiacos have struggled massively in their opening three matches of UCL play. The played Pafos to a pathetic nil-nil draw, were smashed by Barcelona and played Arsenal well, but fell short. Their matches have averaged three goals per game, while PSV have averaged over four goals per match in UCL play. PSV are a high scoring team that are defensively non-existent. They've conceded in 18 of their last 19 matches, and I don't see that changing. Expect goals from both ends of the pitch, and expect the over to cash, possibly in the first half.
