Jon's Picks (1 Live)
There are a lot of people who watched the first leg, saw seven goals, and are just now going to assume that the second leg will be similar. While this could happen, we have to remember how these two leg matches work. Newcastle will advance as long as they don't lose by five goals. They also don't need to score. If this ends 2-0 Qarabag, Newcastle still advance. Expect Newcastle to rest their good strikers, and for Qarabag to pretty much have given up at this point. I see this being very low scoring with little on the line.
The first leg between these two clubs was absolutely electric. Club Brugge held down their home fortress and ended up drawing the LaLiga giants 3-3 off the back of an 89' minute goal from Christos Tzolis. This club has shown they are not afraid to put their foot on the gas and play an extremely high and punishing front line. While playing at Madrid will be a different environment, they'll have to continue that high press to stand a chance of qualifying. I think we'll see another shootout.
Atletico Madrid shocked the world after beating Barcelona in 4-0 in the semi-final first leg of the Copa del Rey. Everyone was singing their praises saying they're this huge threat. Then, three days later, did nothing and lost 3-0 to Rayo Vallecano on the road. This is a team that is so strong at home, but I don't trust them on the road. I think Brugge get at least a draw in the first leg, knowing they need to find a big result in the first leg.
I know that people see the name Newcastle and want to put money on them to absolutely dominate an Azerbaijani side and that makes sense! I don't blame people for thinking that! I will say though be careful, this is a two-legged competition. Newcastle know if they just keep this close they can bring the second leg back home and dominate. I expect Qarabag to do what they did against Copenhagen, Chelsea, and Frankfurt at home already, and cover this spread.
Qarabag are the first Azerbaijani side to ever make it to the knockout round of Champions League play. They consistently scored against some of the best teams in Europe, and have been the shock of the entire competition. While many people are expecting them to fall off now, I still believe they will fight, score, and contribute to this goal total. Newcastle are the better side, and will find goals here, but I'm taking this over banking on Qarabag to once again, score at home.
I was honestly a bit surprised to see this line set to over 2.5 goals instead of over 3.5 goals. I think it's because Atalanta are capable of keeping things scrappy and close. We saw that most recently when they played Lazio to a 2-0 win, and Como to a 0-0 draw. My belief is that with this being a 2-legged playoff, Dortmund are going to press heavily at home in this first leg, knowing that playing in Italy is going to be tough. I'm expecting Dortmund to score 2+ goals in the first leg, and wouldn't be shocked if Atalanta snag one as well. Take BTTS and over 2.5 goals with an explosive Dortmund attack.
This is going to be a very close matchup between two more than capable sides. I believe that both teams will win their home leg, and the question is by how much each team can win. Atalanta will try to keep things close in the first leg, while Dortmund will look to press the attack and fight for a multi-goal lead in the first leg. Dortmund have won four of their last five home games in the new year, and their supporters in UCL play are going to be wild. Expect the hosts to win leg one.
PSG have been the giants of Ligue 1 for a long time now. It's not very often that a team is good enough to take points off them, nevertheless defeat them. Back in November, Monaco was able to do just that, and PSG will be desperate for the chance to correct that abysmal 1-0 loss. Monaco have been incredibly shaky while PSG made the mistake of looking ahead and not trying against Stade Brest. Even on the road and with two legs, I expect PSG to win this game handedly.
No matter what happens in this match, Slavia Praha, who are sitting 34th on the table, are finished with Champions League. They're out. The thing is though, Pafos, technically hasn't been eliminated yet. They need to win this game, and they need about 10 other things to happen such as teams like Brugge and Copenhagen to lose, but it's mathematically possible. Based on home-field advantage and motivation alone, I'm expecting Pafos to try to make something happen here, and wouldn't be shocked if we saw a 1-0 win, or worse case a low scoring draw.
It's not very often I hit y'all with an under, espeically on the Champions League stage, but this is the match out of all 18 that screams a cagey 0-0 or 1-0 either way. We have a Slavia Praha team who is already out of this competition entirely and have no motivation, traveling to take on a Pafos side who have only four goals scored over seven matches. This isn't the match you need to overthink. Only eight goals scored over a combined 14 UCL fixtures between the two teams, I'm taking the under.
Chelsea are sitting in the coveted eight place on the UCL table, but are even on points with five other clubs. The reason Chelsea are placed above those five is due to their goal differential, meaning they've scored more goals than they've conceded by the largest margin. Teams like Barcelona and Manchester City are expected to win today, which means who actually gets the eight spot could come down to goal differential. This all is a fancy way of saying that teams like Chelsea not only need to win, but need to win by multiple goals. Expect Chelsea to continue to press even if they go up 1-0/2-0 early.
If Napoli was at full strength I think I'd pick them to win, but they're not, and it's not even close. Napoli are missing Kevin DeBruyne, Billy Gilmour, David Neres, Matteo Politano, Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, Amir Rrahmani, Pasqale Mazzocchi and Frank Anguissa. That's just too many big players to back Napoli to do anything. They'll have to press for goals, but they're in for a rough time as their backups try to stop players like Joao Pedro from scoring.
Union Saint-Gilloise enter the last matchday sitting two points below qualifying for the next round of UCL. This means that if they do not win, they are done. To win against Atalanta, unfortuantely, you have to press against a very strong counter-attack. USG have already conceded a massive 17 goals already in this competition, and will struggle to stop an Atalanta side that seems to be improving every week. I expect goals in this one.
Atalanta are one of the eight teams currently sitting with the exact same amount of points. While a few things need to happen, a win could be the thing that separates them from automatically advancing to the next round, and having to deal with an additional playoff spot. They've gotten significantly better in recent months, having picked up wins in three of their last four UCL matches, and will look to give themselves the best chance at a top eight finish as they take on a defensively poor Belgian side.