Jon's Picks (4 Live)
I know that it can be scary when everyone is on the same side of a play. We are going to see that with PSG today. The Parisians have been flying high and possess some of the best attackers on the planet. This is the kind of match, at home, where they could very well end this tie in the first leg. Liverpool defense has been horrendous, and coming off a 4-0 loss to City, they'll be desperate to stop the bleeding, but they won't. I have PSG covering this by themselves.
I know I'm not the first expert on SportsLine to give out this bet, and I probably won't be the last! This line feels like a trap. I get that, I understand that, and I'll gladly fall for this "trap" every time with how red hot PSG and how poor Liverpool have been. This Liverpool side just hasn't lived up to their expectations. Mo Salah, Florian Wirtz, and Virgil Van Dyke have all struggled to find consistency this season, and the defensive struggles of Liverpool, on the road especially, should be obvious in this match. I have PSG not only winning this, but winning by multiple goals.
I'm betting on the UCL fixtures early because I think we're going to find some soft lines and solid CLV. This matchup is going to be the one everyone is looking at. We have arguably the best attack in the world right now under Vincent Kompany taking on a Real Madrid side that is finally expected to have Kylian Mbappe returning to the starting XI. The pitch is going to be littered with world-class talent, and two managers who are aggressively attack minded. I'm expected both legs to see BTTS cash, and over 3.5 as well.
I know that people are going to be say this line is too juicy at -146, but to be honest I would have used this as a parlay piece if it was -200. I know that Real Madrid have Champions League heritage and I understand that even as underdogs, they can pull off miraculous performances like they did against Manchester City last round. However, this is Bayern Munich's year. This squad is devastating and prides themselves on their road success. I wouldn't be shocked if the first leg sees a draw, but this line shouldn't be playable.
Arsenal love love love LOVE to keep the first leg on the road cagey and frustrate their opponents. There's a reason they had the best defensive record in the Group stage, and there's a reason they held Leverkusen to only one goal over two legs in the lest matchup. This team is able to dominate possession and grind matches to a halt, and I do not believe that Sporting will be good enough to break past it more than once. A nice 1-1 first leg is where I see this one ending.
I will be the first person to admit that Newcastle played an incredible first leg at St. James Park. They were the better team for 90+5 minutes, and still, managed only a draw. A controversial decision gave Barcelona a penalty at the last play of the game, as Barca left equal on goals. Now, Newcastle have the daunting and brutal task of traveling to Spain to take on Barcelona on their turf. Newcastle needed a lead after leg one, because I think Barcelona now win by multiple goals with home field advantage.
The first leg I took under 2.5 goals on the sit hovering around +110, now, as both teams are all tied up after the first leg, I'm doing it again for the second. This Arsenal team is going back to their park the bus ways as they look to physically and mentally break down their opponents, while waiting for their set pieces. They put on a defensive masterclass against Everton over their weekend fixture, and being at home, against a tired Leverkusen side, we should see another cagey, low-scoring victory, as Arsenal qualify for the next round.
Chelsea under new manager Rosenior starting his tenure off strong as the "New Manager Bounce" could be seen across all areas of the pitch. The longer this team plays, however, the more cracks we are seeing develop in how this team plays. This Chelsea side are still running with an extreme lack of discipline. Red cards continue to plague them, and their defense looked lost and disjointed against PSG in the first leg. While PSG are up on goals, and frankly don't need to win, I don't think that will matter. Even a rotate PSG side will look to embarrass a Chelsea team who can't seem to piece it together.
Bodo is so much fun to watch, especially when playing at home. Their last six matches of UCL play not only saw the over 2.5 goals hit, but saw BTTS hit as well - so add that if you want to get the juice down. This is a team that knows damn well they need to make something big happen in this first leg against Sporting. Players like Jens Petter Hauge and Kasper Waarst Hogh will lead the charge, and will look to do the same thing Bodo has done for the last two months. Score goals. Sporting are good enough to break down Bodo's backline, and I'm expecting this to be the highest scoring match of the day.
Bodo Glimt are a team that absolutely nobody, and I mean NOBODY, expected to still be in this competition. Bodo Glimt were given a 0.3% chance of qualifying entering the last matchday of Champions League, and they did it. The miracle run didn't end there as the Norwegian side knocked out Inter, winning at home 3-1, and at San Siro 2-1. This team when playing at home is straight up diabolical. They have beaten Manchester City, Inter Milan, Sturm Graz all at home in UCL this season. They play on an artificial pitch that teams aren't used to, and they should continue their home heater against Sporting, who will be focused on the second leg.
The head to head history between these two teams in recent years is tasty. They've played five times since 2023. All five of those matches saw BTTS cash, and four of those matches saw the over 2.5 hit as well. The fact that these clubs in different leagues play pretty much every year does give us a unique opportunity to see how they match up. City love to press high against Real Madrid, and Real Madrid love to counter-attack without City. Even though Real Madrid are missing their best goal scoring in Mbappe, I still expect them to try to make something happen at home. Goals should flow at Bernabéu.