Brady's Picks (1 Live)
I have felt the Rams are the better team all season. They have slipped a bit the last few weeks but I believe they put forth their A game here on Sunday. My numbers make them a 1-point favorite - and I love teasing them up to +8.5 with Denver up to +10.5. I do believe both underdogs win outright this weekend. With Seattle looking dominant recently and LA looking beatable, we may be catching a bit of value in this line. It is telling that it hasn't gone to 3. Rams vs Broncos for SuperBowl 60 in Santa Clara.
This sets up nicely for "the fallen hero" theory. The Broncos know that they will have to put forth an inspired effort to overcome their missing star at QB. It will be a rally-the-troops effort by the team and the fans as this whole environment ought to be nuts. The defense, that has slipped lately, will have to perform as it did earlier in the year and I believe the loss of Nix will be the perfect motivation to do so. Patriots have had success the past 2 games against awful offensive lines. Not the case here. I expect a huge effort from Denver on all sides, making for a very manageable game for Jarrett Stidham. I also like teasing Denver to +10.5.
I believe the weather story has become overblown here. Stafford spent the majority of his career in the NFC North. The temperatures will affect everyone and the Rams are the far superior team. They let Carolina get too close last week and they won't here. The Bears defense is a bottom 10 unit in the league. If they cannot force turnovers, they get picked apart, and that is what the Rams will do. Just as the magic finally wore off for the 49'ers, it will do so here too for the pull another rabbit out of my hat Chicago Bears. Lay the points. LA wins by double-digits.. just as my numbers say so as my stats crunch spits out Rams by 10.
Very important to get the +3.5 here and not just a flat 3. We saw what the Chargers defense did to Drake Maye and New England and this defense is better. I also believe that many will remember what they saw last out of CJ Stroud and the Houston offense and overplay the loss of Nico Collins. If all of that is so awful, why is the line only a field goal? I believe the Texans offense will be far better than it was last week and the defense will be excellent. I definitely see them staying within the 3.5 and I do believe they have a good chance to win the game outright.
Crunching the numbers, I actually have Denver as a 3-pt favorite and that falls primarily on its defensive stats, which are exceptional. Offense is a problem. Eleven of the 14 wins were by one score. Broncos trailed in 15 of 17 games. Nix was an average QB - again, benefitted by an excellent defense. Bills strength on defense is vs the pass which will make the game difficult for Nix, and the Broncos rushing attack is just average too. Denver struggled vs mobile QB's this season; T. Lawrence, J. Dart, M. Mariota, and D. Jones. Public perception is Buffalo has no healthy receivers but really, it has the better options on offense. Last time Denver faced a team this good at home, it lost (Jaguars).
Patriots' schedule has been a sore spot for their supporters all season but there is no denying, they played hardly any good teams. They were 2-2 vs playoff teams, splitting with the Bills and also splitting with the Panthers and Steelers, the two worst teams in the tournament. Chargers were 3-2 vs playoff teams (not counting Week 18) and had to face Denver, Philly, Steelers, Jaguars, and Texans. LAC also has the better point differential vs common opponents. They have an excellent formula for playoff football: a rushing attack, a pass rush, and an excellent defense. When I crunch my numbers, I come up with LAC as a 1-point favorite. I'll gladly take anything greater than a field goal and they just might win outright.
When this game first materialized, the immediate reactions were, "I'm hammering the OVER." That had me immediately considering the UNDER. We know SF's defense can be a problem but Robert Salah has them playing above their heads, with a great deal of energy. Let's not forget, they held Seattle to 13-points last week and forced four field goal attempts. Seattle's offense ranks much higher than Philadelphia's and the defense of Philly is very good. It feels like 49ers vs Eagles would mean points but the fact that the line opened at 46 says a lot - and it has since been bet down. Some wind is expected and note that since 2004, the UNDER is 49-23 (68%) in Wild Card games played outdoors.
Looking at these two teams on the surface, Bills vs Jaguars seems to scream points - thus, I want to go the other direction. I was able to play UNDER 52 here and I show that is still readily available. It is very possible that this number will go even higher if you wait until Sunday as I believe the public majority will have that same initial perception I refer to and play the OVER accordingly. The running game should be featured heavily in this contest - for both teams. Buffalo's defense is vulnerable against the run and Buffalo's offense is excellent utilizing the run. Rushing the football takes time off the clock. The running game plus public perception has me staying UNDER the total.
Ravens got steamed on Friday afternoon but I prefer to go against the move. Neither team is very good and I believe making Baltimore a 4.5-point road favorite is too high. The Ravens were actually better with Lamar Jackson not in the game last week when they leaned on Derrick Henry. Will Henry get the bulk of the action again with Lamar back? He sat out nearly the entire 4th quarter in a loss to the Patriots. I like Mike Tomlin as a home underdog in prime time and he has historically bounced back after a poor performance. Tomlin is 13-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS when the Steelers score fewer than 10-points in their previous game, including 7-1-1 ATS when their record is above .500
Rams have dropped two straight, not a way anyone wants to enter the postseason. Sean McVay will have his team ready to right the ship, using the Cardinals as their playoff-prep tackling dummy. Removing any situational factors, my numbers have the Rams by 16-points. Arizona is arguably the most injured team in the league. Forget about the incredibly wide gap in talent between these two teams, the discrepancy in health alone might be worth 16 points. Some might argue that how the Rams approach this game depends on what the 49'ers do on Saturday. I don't necessarily agree. McVay wants to reestablish some positive momentum for this team heading into the postseason. I believe it is a one-way street this Sunday at SoFi.
There are quite a few unknowns in Week 18 but I believe we do know that even with the season essentially finished, Dan Campbell will still come with everything he has. Unfortunately, everything he has is not a lot with all of the injuries but still, I believe this will be 100% effort out of Campbell's squad. Just by the numbers, the Lions are the better team. Again, it is about health and if they have enough to overcome the holes on defense. All the pressure in on Chicago - to win and secure the #2 seed. Meanwhile, Detroit can let it fly with no pressure whatsoever. If the Lions don't turn the ball over, they'll keep it close and possibly win it outright.
Tampa Bay is a disjointed product. Many of their star players haven't even been on the field for even half a season. They found ways to have success without them and now with some of them back, integrating them back into the flow has only caused more chaos. Let's not forget, when they were winning, early in the season, it was in minor miracle fashion, pulling games out in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. Carolina is healthier and can rush the football. That is a good formula on a sloppy, wet field in Florida for Week 18. Grab the full 3 points but I feel it won't be needed as the Panthers win the game outright.
The Chicago Bears do not have a very good defense. They rank as one of worst in the league in yards per pass given up and in yards per carry surrendered. They were extremely successful for most of the season because of turnovers. As of late, against good teams, Steelers, Eagles, and Packers twice, their turnover margin has leveled off. Brock Purdy has thrown 9 TD's and only 1 interception in his last 3 games. If Chicago can't force turnovers, the 49'ers offense ought to be able to pick them apart. The Bears will likely have some success on offense too but not enough to win the game or stay within a field goal in my opinion. Lay the 3 before it goes to 3.5.
The whole country got to see the Colts defense get carved up by the 49'ers on Monday. This, coupled with the biggest win of the season for Jacksonville, beating the Broncos at Mile High, had this line open at an inflated number of 7. It has since come down to as low as 5.5 and may go lower. I love getting 6 and would not want to settle for much less. This is a division game. I expect a tighter result than by a touchdown. Final home game for Indy and I believe we get an all-out effort against their division nemesis. Stock at rock bottom for the Colts and sky high on the Jags, I'll take the division home dog with the points.