Another fade on Joe Ryan here today he could be limited in some capacity heading into the All Star Break. The 7.5 strikeout line was high to begin with, and he has good enough stuff to hit eight strikeouts in limited work but a fade here is not something to shy away from after his previous start and heavy workload this season.
There are some rumblings about Joe Ryan potentially being on a pitch count here today and looking ahead to pitch in the All Star Game next week. He generally is a full six inning guy with ease but at this price for him to potentially just go five innings is too good to pass up. He still would need to pitch well to complete the full six and he's coming off 106 pitches and seven innings last time out. Going to fade the outs and strikeouts here for Ryan and betting on a shorter outing as he heads into the break.
Luis Castillo's strikeouts have dipped over the last couple of seasons and he faces off with one of the tougher teams to strikeout in the Tampa Bay Rays. Castillo is in just the 40th percentile for whiff rate, but he does get some hitters chasing out of the zone to help his strikeout numbers. The issue with that is this Rays team chases pitches at a low rate, and when they do they make contact at the highest rate in the league. Their lineup puts the ball in play and Castillo is allowing hitters to put the ball in play at a 90% rate when in the zone. He's also had a tougher time striking out lefties, and will likely get a lefty heavy order.
Miguel Vargas hit a couple of balls "hard" last night at 95+ mph and 100+ mph but he came up short for the hits, runs and RBI bet we had. Today he faces another lefty in Patrick Sandoval, as the southpaw comes off the IL and pitches in MLB level for the first time since 2024. With how incredible Vargas has been against lefties (1.100 OPS), the over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI's line is priced at nearly -160, so I'll shift to the total bases, where I'm still finding some value for an extra base hit or a multi-hit effort for the Chicago third baseman.
The Braves face off with Mitch Keller, who has allowed a .283 average and 10 home runs in 61 innings against lefties this year. Atlanta's main offensive threats are on the left side with Olson, Baldwin, Harris, and Albies all near the top of the order, while the Pirates main threats are also left handed batters. Bryce Elder was solid last time against this Pirates lineup because he can neutralize lefties far better than righties (.206 avg vs. .300 avg) but he's been much worse of late so we'll pump the breaks on hyping him up too much. Still, the Braves team total over 4.5 runs is a 1u play for me, but the ML is also 10-15 cents cheaper than it should be.
I'm going to play a strikeout ladder here on Nathan Eovaldi at 8,9,10 Ks for 1u total against the Angels. I don't mind betting into the -150's for the over 6.5 Ks but I think a better use of our money is to chase the upside here. Eovaldi's two main pitches against right handed batters are running whiff rates above 40%, and he should see at least six if not seven or eight righties in the Angels lineup. This is a lineup that chases at a high rate, yet makes contact at a league low 51% when they chase. Eovaldi is a guy that relies on the chase of his splitter and curveball, which are the two high whiff pitches he leans on against righties.
MacKenzie Gore has turned up the strikeouts against right handed batters, and we likely see only one lefty in the Angels order tonight. It defies logic to want less lefties against a southpaw but Gore is near a 30% K rate vs. righties this year, while struggling vs. lefties with a strikeout rate under 20%. If he has that good curveball again, this Angels lineup is prone to striking out on breaking pitches so he could find success with some whiffs. Projecting around 18 outs gives us a good shot at the over based on his workload and Jacob deGrom completed just five innings last night, so I bet they try to get as much from Gore as they can. 8,9,10 Ks ladder for 1u.
I think we may see this come down to 4.5 after the lineup is confirmed, that's if we get anything similar to what is projected. Right now we have seven lefties and just two righties in the projected lineup for the Marlins, and the two righties are K adverse hitters, with Lopez at sub-15% and Sanoja at sub-8% strikeout rates. The Miami lefties will yield some strikeouts, but Kirby has not struck out lefties at a high clip this year, with a 20% whiff rate and under 20% K rate. I don't mind taking the extra strikeout and fading a 6th, but I think he may have a low K day, so under 4.5 at good plus odds is more appealing if you find it.
The Phillies go with a bullpen game here and the Reds send ace Chase Burns to the mound. I currently have the Reds over 4.5 runs as one of the best overs on a team total today, with the projection over six runs here, so I'll play that at -113 for one unit as well. Backing Chase Burns in the F5 against a smattering of pitchers from the Phillies bullpen, and at this price, is appealing and showing some value too.
The Blue Jays are seeing the 2nd fewest pitches per plate appearance and regardless of shifts in their lineup due to injuries, the projection for Webb still sits above 18 outs today. For the price, this makes for an intriguing over bet, and one that's showing some value. We just talked about it on the Early Edge, and EC mentioned how Webb has continually gone over this total when at home, missing in just 2/7 starts, one of which being the 1st of the year. He was shelled for 11 hits and seven runs in three innings in Colorado last time, so getting back to his home ballpark with a lighter workload in the previous start should give him ample opportunity to cover some innings.
Roki Sasaki has been up and down all year, failing to complete six innings since the beginning of June. I think he can grab some strikeouts tonight, and his results project better than recent terrible performances, but I still have to fade the full six innings. He's projected at 16 outs, so the line really should be 16.5 at the most imo. LA also got seven innings from Justin Wrobleski last night, and they have a day off tomorrow. To win this game/series, you can't let things get away from Sasaki quickly, and even if this isn't a great lineup that fails to work the count, they did put seven hits and three runs on him in 4.2 innings earlier this year.
A numbers play as the broader market has this set around 16.5 while MGM is giving us the extra out to fade six innings. That's key in my opinion because this is a double header day and they would love to get a bit of length out of Robert Gasser, plus Milwaukee won game one, so I don't doubt they push him. But he's completed six innings just once this year despite pitching into the 6th inning in three straight starts, and was pulled at 5.2 innings twice. Getting 17.5 here is pivotal in my opinion, and I'm already on the Cardinals, which I mentioned how they can get to Gasser, so this is worth a half unit with the extra out on MGM.
Let's see if the Cardinals can pull one out tonight to salvage a split on the day. They were always going to have a tough time winning game one vs Jacob Misiorowski, but tonight they have an easier matchup with Robert Gasser and Jackson Chourio takes a seat after an 0-5 effort earlier. St Louis has a .748 OPS against southpaws in the last month, as they really have not been an easy opponent for pitchers, and Gasser is one they can get to. He's allowed about a hit per inning against righties with five homers in 25 innings, and the main bullpen arms of Ashby, Uribe and Megill have all worked a good bit either earlier today or this past weekend.
The Angels are rolling with a lineup that has just three batters below a 25% strikeout rate against right handed pitchers. Jacob deGrom possesses strong underlying strikeout metrics with a 16% swinging strike rate and a slider with a 47% whiff rate against righties. Having a sharp slider will be key here, as deGrom will face six righty hitters and he leads with that pitch against that side of the split. This order has racked up strikeouts against breaking pitches, and even when giving up home runs and working through trouble deGrom has seemed to find a way to grab strikeouts with his elite stuff. Ladder at 8,9,10 Ks for 1u total.
A lot has been made of the "All-Star Snub" for Zack Wheeler, so hopefully he comes out firing with a vengeance tonight. It looks dry in Cincy now and the lineup the Reds are rolling out is to Wheeler's advantage, as they're missing a couple of key tough-strikeout guys. Six of the nine batters for the Reds tonight feature a strikeout rate at 25% or higher vs. right handed pitching and without Noelvi Marte, this lineup is an even softer strikeout matchup. Wheeler is running a swinging strike rate above 13% over the last month, and the price on Fanduel at +116 for an 8th strikeout shows solid value for a straight bet, and provides a ladder opportunity I'll take at 8,9,10 Ks (1u total).