A home run with two outs in the 5th inning sunk Pepiot in his last start when we played the over 15.5 outs but I think this a good enough spot to go back to the well. The Rays' closer blew the game yesterday, and they've used a fairly heavy share of the bullpen the last couple of days, so Pepiot should be relied upon to get a bit deeper here. After this game, the Rays travel to NY to face the Yankees, and I'd imagine getting through this game with as little bullpen used as possible would be ideal for Cash and the Rays. Pepiot has been one of the better starters for Tampa Bay, and has gone over this line in 2/3 starts.

Yankees lost on Tuesday to make it 4 in a row. Looking to avoid a serious slide here before an off day and heading to Tampa Bay, I think the Yankees find a way to win this one. Toronto has used up a fair amount of the bullpen but the Yankees have saved Clay Holmes and Ian Hamilton the last two days in the bullpen, making both surely available for this one. The Yankees' bats also started waking up late in this game tonight and Gausman hasn't looked himself yet.

Luis Severino has gone over this number in one of his starts and ended with six strikeouts in another, so he has been all around this line, but that's why we see the 6.5 to begin with. I think this should be at 5.5 or at least closer to -200 on this under 6.5. He had trouble with walks last time out and hasn't been very efficient, lasting just five innings in each start. Half unit, I'm also going to play some on Severino over 1.5 walks as well.

I love a Tommy Henry fade! Chicago's lineup told Merrill Kelly to get lost after just five innings last night, and they've been making life difficult for opposing pitchers by working deep counts. Henry is not a great pitcher either; he walks too many, gets hit hard, and hasn't been successful at keeping runners off base. He's failed to enter the 6th inning in any of his starts (let alone finish that inning) and while his last two starts were better than his first, Henry needed to pitch around 10 hits and five walks (10 innings) to limit the damage to four runs. Six relievers were used last night by Arizona, but 4/6 threw less than 15 pitches, so I feel OK about bullpen availability.

Tyler Glasnow has been nothing short of amazing to start the year and looks like a true ace for the Dodgers. He racked up 14 strikeouts last start and needed only 88 pitches to do so... pretty remarkable how efficient he was with that many punch outs. But, the Nationals have been good at not striking out, with a team K rate around 20% (no thanks to Joey Gallo) and Glasnow has only topped this line in 1/4 starts this year. I'll take a shot and fade a great arm on a high number because of the matchup and the odds being better than +110.

Everyone loves flamethrowers that strikeout lots of batters: it's fun to watch, and even more fun to bet on. But I'm going to show love for a lower strikeout prop here... Ross Stripling's floor for strikeouts has been around three in each start (even going back to spring training), and through three starts, Stripling has ended with six, three and five K's in each. The underlying numbers don't speak of a guy that's going to strikeout a whole bunch of batters, and I don't love backing these types of guys to go over a strikeout total, but "value is value" and I think over 3.5 K's should be -175/-180 instead of the -137 we're getting. Over 4.5 K's is not of much interest.

Merrill Kelly has posted a better ERA at home vs on the road in five consecutive seasons for the DBacks and it looks like nothing is changing this year, as he has an ERA under two in Arizona. While Kelly had eight punch outs in the first start of the year, he's been held well under the 6.5 line in his last two. The Cubs are striking out around 24% of the time vs right handed pitchers but Kelly's strikeout rate to left handed batters is considerably down so far, and Chicago will likely run out 4 lefties. I like under 6.5 K's here.

Getting to seven strikeouts has not been an easy task for Joe Musgrove this year. While some of the underlying stats point to regression, Musgrove still doesn't have my trust to go over 6.5 strikeouts yet. He's failed to reach seven strikeouts in 3/4 starts and even when Musgrove did go over this line, he ended with seven strikeouts in six innings of work. Now he faces a Milwaukee offense that's ranked second vs right handers in OPS and 22nd in strikeout rate.

Seth Lugo had only three strikeouts vs the White Sox a couple of weeks ago and that was with Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada in the lineup (28% K rate each). Lugo has failed to reach even five strikeouts in any start this year, let alone six to eclipse this line. His underlying metrics are not very encouraging either, with a swinging strike rate under 8% and a zone-contact rate just above 90%.

Do you remember that crazy 26-run game the Norfolk Tides (Baltimore AAA) had a couple of weeks ago? Well, Nick Nastrini started that game, where he went only three innings (70 pitches), allowed nine baserunners and gave up four runs. Yes, Baltimore's AAA team is budding with talent, but Nastrini's inefficiency and total baserunners allowed doesn't project confidence for his MLB debut. The Royals have the 7th best OPS vs right handers and a strikeout rate around 20%, which is tough for Nastrini because strikeouts are one of his only strengths. Look for Seth Lugo to handle Chicago's lineup, while Nick Nastrini and the White Sox bullpen let KC record a bunch of runs.

Yu Darvish has failed to throw more than 82 pitches in any of his four starts this year and his first start came against this same Dodgers lineup, when he was pulled before completing the 4th inning. Darvish has been hit hard better than half the time so far, with an expected ERA near five and he's missed covering this line in 3/4 starts. With the offensive potential of this Dodgers lineup, and the pitch counts for Darvish so far, I think under 16.5 outs is the play here.

After they completed a bullpen game yesterday while using six pitchers, the Rays need some length here from Ryan Pepiot. Many of Tampa Bay's top relievers have thrown two of the last three days and this matchup looks solid for Pepiot, with the Giants ranking as a bottom five team vs right handed pitchers in many key offensive metrics. Pepiot's expected stats are solid as well, proving his success so far has been real.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was rudely introduced to MLB by the Padres in Korea to start the year, but I'm betting on him getting some revenge here. Yamamoto has completed five innings in back to back starts, while eclipsing the 4.5 K's line in both. His pitch count grew to 80 last start and his projection is around 5.1 innings here, so he should have sufficient work to hit the over. Even against the Padres in that dreadful first start, he struck out two batters in just one inning. I'm encouraged by his 13% swinging strike rate and that he's only walked two batters in the 10 innings that followed his poor first start. Draftkings is 10 cents better than this price so shop around.

Steven Matz has racked up just three strikeouts in each of his first two starts and now faces the DBacks, who are currently bottom three in MLB for strikeouts vs left handed pitching. Small samples sizes are the name of the game this early in the season but Arizona is starting to accrue a sizable share of At Bats vs lefties and they have a strikeout rate under 15% so far. The DBacks have also been hitting lefties well, with an .820 OPS, which is good for top-five in MLB currently.

Grayson Rodriguez over 16.5 outs and it's not against a premier offense? Yes, please! Last time out, Rodriguez pitched into the 7th inning, throwing 97 pitches on his way to his second quality start in as many tries. He finished last season going over this line in 10 of 12 starts and he's already two for two this year, so let's jump in while this is at 16.5!