Angelo's Picks (2 Live)
Tabbing Cam Schlittler to have a solid start here tonight against the Reds and help them win after a crushing loss last night. The only real worry on this prop is that Schlittler is kept in the game through the 7th inning to eat up some innings and we get a rogue couple of hits as we saw last time vs. Toronto. But at plus money here and projecting around 4.3 hits allowed, it makes for a fine half unit bet as we try different ways of backing Schlittler here.
I guess we're all in on the Yankees tonight, as we've backed Cam Schlittler on a couple of pitcher props and the Yankees to win by 2 runs at what I deem to be a fair price. Some projections have this price as being largely -ev but I would make it closer to -115 and my gut tells me the New York bats get to Rhett Lowder and a struggling bullpen. Schlittler should see a righty heavy order, and he's held opposing righties to a .171 avg and .236 xwOBA, severely limiting their production. The Reds offense has also been well below average against righties of late, with an OPS under .700 and 91 wRC+, making them 9% worse than league average in this split.
Another brutal beat last night on both Ben Rice and Miguel Vargas total bases, as each hit a ball over 400 feet but incredibly, both were to direct centerfield again which resulted in outs. Rice had a hit before that though, and he's been crushing the ball even when making outs, so I'm going back to this prop against Rhett Lowder. He's been worse vs. lefties but his success keeping runs off the board looks a bit lucky, with a 5.28 xFIP in the last month. The bullpen behind him is one of the worst in MLB too, and we got the walk at least for Rice last night, so I'll play that again too.
Cam Schlittler may be pushed for some extra work with the Yankees bullpen struggling last night, and against a Reds team featuring a strikeout rate above 25% in the month of June vs righties, I won't overthink this. His splits favor strikeouts against lefties and he likely gets only two or three lefties in this Cincy lineup, but the righties include Eugenio Suarez, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, and Matt McLain, all with strikeout rates of 24% or higher vs. righties. 1st At Bat strikeout bets on all of them! Wouldn't be surprised if the price gets better if Noelvi Marte is in the lineup (unconfirmed) and I would make this a 1u bet if we got near +100 for a 7th K.
Miguel Vargas had some tough luck last night when two balls hit incredibly well stayed in the yard. He hit one at 104mph exit velocity that traveled 403 feet but was caught and another that was tagged similarly but became an out, leaving him with two very hard hit balls that amounted to nothing. Vargas still had an early double and looks locked in with a near 1.200 OPS vs. lefties, while southpaw Ryan Weathers is struggling to avoid home runs of late. I'm backing Vargas to have a great game on over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI, but the Total Bases isn't a bad pivot. Also playing 1+ walk (+145) as they might pitch around the righty slugger with lefty, Colson Montgomery, behind him.
Byron Buxton is over this line in seven games in June, as he's a roll batting .340 with 17 hits across 13 games. Buxton has racked up six home runs in that time, and three doubles, for nine total extra base hits. Being he has a lower walk rate, and Jack Leiter walks righties at a lower clip, the total bases is a good alternative here if you can't get the hits, runs and rbi prop. Buxton over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI (-135) is a great play, but with all the recent extra base hits, I like the total bases at this price too. He had a home run and double off Leiter last year, so let's hope he doesn't pitch around him.
I'm on Ben Rice over 2.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+120) as well tonight, but the total bases at this price is a fine alternative. With it, I'm playing Rice for 1+ walk at +102 on Draftkings for 0.5u. Sean Burke has had issues with walks to lefties, tallying 20 in 42 innings thus far, with 38 hits and six home runs allowed. If not for an incredible diving play that saw Everson Pereira smash into the outfield fence last night, Rice would have had a ringing double off the left-center wall. Hitting a ball at 104 mph and sending it 400+ feet usually results in a hit, so if he can continue smashing the baseball like that, he'll have a great shot at two bases.
Gavin Williams had gone 10 straight starts without allowing more than two walks up until last time out when he surrendered three vs. the Yankees. It was the second time that lineup had seen him in a week so maybe that impacted their good eyes. Now, Williams will face a Brewers lineup with the lowest chase rate in MLB and part of his success this year has been predicated on a rise in chase rate. Williams still has walk upside though with his sporadic lack of command, and tonight he faces a Brewers lineup that features five hitters with walk rates of 10% or better. Over 17.5 outs is favored, and I like the over on this prop if he works a full six innings.
Edward Cabrera led MLB in stolen bases allowed last year with 35, and he's surrendered 10 stolen bags through 12 starts so far. While Miguel Amaya is the Cubs best throwing option at catcher, I'm still taking a shot on some stolen base bets. Cole Carrigg has yet to steal a base since he came up to MLB level a week ago, but he's in the 96th percentile for sprint speed, and he was a stolen base demon in the minors. He racked up 51 stolen bases in A ball a couple years back, then 46 at AA, and had already stole 30 bases in 57 AAA games this year before his call up. 0.10u on 2+ Stolen Bases (+3100).
Mets Team Total over 4.5 (-140) on ScoreBet/Caesars is a 0.5u play for me tonight, projecting over six runs and facing Brady Singer plus a rough Cincinnati bullpen. They rank as the fourth worst bullpen for ERA in all of baseball, and we get some solid hitting weather in The Great American Ballpark tonight. If you can't get just the Mets team total, I do like the full game over as well, with Kodai Senga on the mound for the Mets as he comes off the IL. This won't be an easy task for Senga, who may have an abbreviated outing anyways, but walks, hits, hit batters, and wild pitches all are a regularity for him, which would help our chances.
Jesus Luzardo has some of the best strikeout stuff on the slate of games today but there is at least a bit of pause here being he needs seven strikeouts and the Marlins worked some long counts against Zack Wheeler last night. Is he can lean on the slider here though, this Miami lineup should be rather susceptible to strikeouts tonight. The slider is still running a great whiff rate above 45% and the Marlins have had some issues with that pitch. Only a half unit here, as he's been far worse vs. righties of late for strikeout rate, but that's something expect to improve in the future. Laddered here at 7,8,9 on Fanduel.
Similar to Andrew Abbott, Zac Gallen has some home and road splits that make you wonder why they keep giving him the ball outside of his home park. His ERA on the road is a bloated 7.44 while at home it's just a 3.65 ERA. He's allowed 8+ hits in three straight starts, with 4+ runs allowed in each, and he's missed the full six innings mark with regularity this year. The DBacks have a chance to win a series with a win today, something they've not done since May 27th, so I don't think they let things get out of hand is Gallen begins to struggle.
The home and away splits for Andrew Abbott are the reason to fade him on the full six innings here today. We get solid hitting weather in Great American Ballpark and at this price, it's showing some value to take the under here. At home, Abbott is pitching to a 5.15 ERA while it's just a three ERA on the road. He's getting an extra day of rest and has hit the six inning mark with regularity of late, but against a DBacks team that's been significantly better vs. lefties, I'm going to fade the full six innings here and bet on the heat and DBacks offense to knock him out.
Truthfully, opener Tanner Banks has not been good, and he's likely only being used to try to neutralize Christian Yelich and Brice Turang who hit in the 1st and 3rd spots in the order. Sandwiched in the middle is a scorching hot Jackson Chourio, who is hitting .382 vs. southpaws with a .946 OPS. After that 1st at bat, he will face Andrew Painter, who is allowing a .302 avg vs. righties and has given up five home runs in 22 innings. Chourio has 17 hits in his last 10 games, so I'm looking for another multi-hit effort but even just an extra base hit gets it done for us.
Ketel Marte hit nearly .300 in May but has sputtered to begin June. However, he's matched his production from last year against lefties, hitting .278 with an .827 OPS, which is the much better side of his split this year. The ballpark is an upgrade and there's hot, humid weather in Cincy to give us one of the better hitting environments of the slate. We get Marte at the top of the order on the away team, against southpaw Nick Lodolo and the worst bullpen in baseball since May 1st backing him up. Marte hasn't walked nearly as much this year as he did last year vs. lefties, so I like the total bases here tonight, where any extra base hit wins it for us.