Last night I had Dodgers ML as this Yankees team looked lifeless for the first three games, and even against a bullpen game, I felt the Dodgers humming offense would be a major difference maker. Despite jumping out to an early lead, LA allowed the Yankees lineup to finally get some mojo back and string hits together, scoring 11 runs. Tonight though, things will not be as easy for the New York bats, as the Dodgers have all of their top bullpen pieces available and ready to be deployed earlier than usual to cut the game short. Gerrit Cole also doesn't have much room for error, especially after the Yankees bullpen was taxed the last few days. +125 is value again so play it!

Near -150 for the Yankees moneyline tonight, after how bad they have looked in the first three games, is certainly interesting... Luis Gil would likely never be this big of a favorite against this lineup if not for a bullpen game on the other side, but the Dodgers offense has been humming and I have to take the +125 at this point. Credit to my colleague Matt Snyder, who already mentioned in his pick that the team who starts out 3-0 is 31-9 in this spot, so the numbers say to take the plus odds here as well. If the Yankees win in "dead cat bounce" fashion, I still would be very shocked to see this series make it's way back to LA. 0.5u play.

Jose Trevino should be behind the plate for the Yankees tonight as Aaron Boone said last night that Austin Wells would likely get a day off today. Trevino was an astounding 13 for 70 this year when attempting to throw runners out, and with Cleveland in a 2-0 hole here, I think their offense gets scrappy and they do whatever they need to do to get a win. The Guardians ranked 2nd in the AL this year for stolen bases and Jose Ramirez has one again put himself in the MVP discussion due to his power/speed combo. When runners are on base tonight, they should ALL be looking to steal against Trevino, but Jose Ramirez at 3-1 is the main guy I'm backing!

Colder weather and winds blowing in should make scoring tougher and we'll need a 9th run to beat us. The Dodgers play their first game on the east coast in a month and enjoyed nice weather in California for their playoff games thus far, so a 50 degree night in the Big Apple is a switch up. Walker Buehler has been tabbed as an awful pitcher and despite giving up lots of hard contact in his last start, all six of his runs were allowed in the same inning, where errors and bad defensive plays burned him. Luis Severino had a 2.96 ERA at Citi Field this year and both bullpens should have all of their top guys available. At 8 I'll take the under.

We saw Michael King absolutely crush the Braves lineup last night, racking up 12 strikeouts through seven masterful innings. Now Joe Musgrove takes the ball, looking to send his hometown team to the divisional round of the playoffs. Musgrove has looked stellar since returning from the IL in August, pitching to a 2.15 ERA in 50+ innings, with 57 strikeouts in that time. His underlying metrics back up his strong performances, with a swinging strike rate of 12.5% and a Stuff+ rating of 134 since returning from injury! Musgrove has hit the over in seven of his last eight starts so I'll take a stab here at the over.

Kambi books have this at 17.5 while the rest of the market is at 15.5 outs. I have to admit, this is a nice spot for Michael King, drawing a Braves team that should be gassed after yesterday's double header and traveling last night. But there is a reason this number is 15.5 is most spots, as King went a full six innings in 15/30 starts this year and 2/4 in September. Going six innings is not a lock for him by any means and in the playoffs with a solid bullpen, 17.5 outs is near his ceiling, where going a full six innings means he was highly efficient with little trouble faced. Possible middle opportunity between 15.5 and 17.5 outs!

Paul Skenes will be the main attraction on Saturday afternoon in the Bronx, after lasting just five innings and 73 pitches last time out, despite striking out nine. Manager Derek Shelton confirmed they capped him at five innings in that start so there is risk that something similar happens here. Even if Skenes is not held to five innings, rain still poses a threat, so there's reason to be cautious. Regardless, Skenes has some filthy stuff and can easily rack up strikeouts quickly, as we saw Jared Jones do last night, so for this price, I'll take a shot. Only half unit plays this late in the season, especially on pitcher props!

Zac Gallen will need to come up BIG for this DBacks team tonight, as they are just a half game ahead of the Braves for the final Wild Card spot. He seems to be "at home" when pitching in Chase Field, with a 3.51 ERA this year and a 19-6 record over the past two seasons when pitching in the desert. The Giants have been one of MLB's worst teams for strikeouts vs. righties since the start of August and despite a short outing last night, Brandon Pfaadt still struck out four batters from the eight outs he turned in. Seven strikeouts is a level that Gallen had hit in five straight starts prior to finishing with five last time so I'll jump back in!

One last ride with Kevin Gausman for this year, so why not take a shot against the Red Sox, who have struck out at a top five rate in MLB for a couple of months now. Gausman has not had a great season, but he's still managed to rack up five or more strikeouts in 19/30 starts and was on his was to a no-hitter last time before he was pulled for back tightness. He had six strikeouts in short work in that start, and the Jays giving him another start instead of packing it in for the year inspires confidence in his health. The postgame interviews were positive too, with Gausman stating it was precautionary and he felt fine after. Let's do it!

Tanner Houck will start here after skipping his last start with shoulder fatigue but Alex Cora sounds encouraged with his health status and I don't anticipate much of a restriction here for Houck. If he does have a pitch count, I still think this 4.5 Ks line is a bit too low or at least priced nicely for us to take a shot at a 5th strikeout. I'll dive more into this one on #EarlyEdge this morning!

Joe Musgrove will take on the Giants in back to back starts after failing to complete five innings last time out. One blow up inning hurt Musgrove that day, but his strikeout metrics were strong as he racked up the punch outs, with a swinging strike rate near 14%. We will need a 6th strikeout to cash and anything better than -150 is good to play in my opinion. Musgrove has hit the over in four of his six starts since returning from the IL and the Giants have been near league worst for strikeouts in the 2nd half of the year, and not any better of late.

Despite being hit harder of late, Yusei Kikuchi has a 15% swinging strike rate and a 30% whiff rate vs righties over the last month. He should see a righty heavy lineup and a veteran pitcher like Kikuchi could be tough on the inexperienced, younger hitters in the middle/bottom of this Angels order. Since adding those new faces to the lineup, LA has jumped to worst in MLB for strikeouts vs. lefties, allowing Chris Sale, Andrew Heaney and Cole Ragans to each go for 8+ strikeouts since mid-August. Kikuchi's been throwing 95-100 pitches routinely and Houston doesn't have an off day until Sept 26th, so it's the start of a long stretch for the bullpen, which could help him get deeper into this one.

Kumar Rocker has some staggering numbers through seven starts at AA and AAA; 0.91 ERA and 0.57 WHIP with 47 strikeouts in 29.2 innings. Despite maxing out around 70 pitches and not getting deep into games, Rocker has now completed five innings in his last two starts and racked up at least eight strikeouts in each. He's also featuring a 23% swinging strike rate, and I don't love using minor league strikeout stats but this kid is talented and has a good amount of swing and miss potential. A 5th strikeout means he's at one K/inning if he pitches five innings, and I believe he can be far better than that, so I'm taking the over 4.5 and a ladder at 6,7,8 Ks!

Blake Snell only has a few starts left this year and his previous start was forgettable. He struck out two batters from his three total outs, but threw 40+ pitches in the 1st inning before being yanked. Snell gets the Brewers at home now, and while they don't have terrible strikeout numbers against lefties, this is a lineup that allowed Chris Sale to go for 10+ strikeouts in August, which is encouraging as Snell has similar upside and an elite swinging strike rate like Sale. Snell should be more than rested to get deeper into this game and see extra opportunities, plus CB Bucknor is behind home plate! I'm playing a ladder at 8,9,10 Ks as well.

Pablo Lopez had nine strikeouts in two of his last three starts and was rounding into form in August with an ERA under two. He features some strong strikeout metrics vs. righties, especially of late, and will see a steady diet of right handed batters tonight against the Angels. Pablo has as much strikeout potential as anyone on any given day, with nearly a 15% swinging strike rate over the last month, so I'll take a shot here for 0.5u if you're playing it straight and will dabble with a ladder too! This Angels lineup also has some new, less-experienced faces in the bottom of the lineup and if Pablo is on his game, he could prove to be very tough for those young hitters!