Joel Farabee has now recorded a point in six of the Flames last seven games, with the only miss coming when they were shut out by the Oilers. Farabee has been integral to their current run of success, and the current prices at +120 or better in some spots provide excellent value tonight. Projections have this priced near -110 but I will at least give the caveat that Calgary has to travel to Colorado and is on a back-to-back here, so half unit that Farabee can keep it going thanks to some value on the number!

Ivar Stenberg was tied for the rookie lead in points before spending the last couple of games doing cardio on the first line. It was exciting to see him move up to play alongside Macklin Celebrini, but in the two games since, he's failed to hit the score sheet. I think that finally changes here today, at home in San Jose. With starting goalie Linus Ullmark out for Ottawa, we're likely getting backup Samuel Errson, who is 0-3-1 with a 4.46 GAA, a stark contrast to the 7-1 record and 1.33 GAA from Ullmark. We get the Stenberg point price back near even money, so I'm willing to dive in.

Artemi Panarin scored on Thursday night, helping the Kings to their first home victory of the season. He recorded seven shots in that effort, and has hit the over on this line in 9/12 games thus far. The Sabres have been above average at shot suppression and this is a 1pm local start, so I'll go with 0.5u, but the Sportsline projections have Panarin over three shots on goal and I'm willing to bet his shooting continues. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has struggled to begin the year, in sharp contrast to his performance last season, so I'll also take a half unit on Panarin to find the back of the net today as well. Even if UPL doesn't start, I like betting on Panarin at home here.

Tuesday was just the second time the Brewers lost this postseason. Jacob Misiorowski starts for Milwaukee in Game Five, but the question is will Drew Rasmussen start on short rest? Nick Martinez pitched in Game Four so he's likely out, but Kevin Cash would not confirm a starter. Regardless, the offense for Milwaukee was unlucky on many occasions in Game Four, while it seemed like the Rays got every break to go their way and still nearly lost. The Brewers also made two errors, were held without a multi-run inning, and hit 20 balls "hard" yet 14 of them were outs. I'll bet on more of those balls falling for hits in Game Five, and the Brewers win behind a strong performance from their ace.

The Milwaukee Brewers were held without a multi-run inning for just the fourth time this postseason, and it was in a 12-inning game! The Rays pitching and defense locked in, shutting down the Brew Crew by robbing multiple hits and getting big strikeouts when needed, but I'm not convinced that happens again in Game Five. On Tuesday, Milwaukee's offense hit 20 balls "hard" at over 95 mph exit velo, yet just six were hits, and if you look at specifically the 100+ mph exit velo batted balls, the Brewers racked up 12 but had just three hits to show for it. I think they capitalize better in this one, after going 0-3 with men in scoring position and leaving eight runners on base.

Last night's game was long and arduous, but the Brewers bullpen is actually in a fine spot, with just one pitcher throwing on back-to-back days. Their high-leverage arms of Uribe (19), Romero (11), and Megill (5) each threw under 20 pitches last night, and should be completely available. If Jacob Misiorowski can go five strong innings, Pat Murphy may elect to get through the 6th with DL Hall or Aaron Ashby, before turning the 7th, 8th, and 9th to the trio I mentioned above. If Miz struggles, he's likely out early anyways, but even if he's good enough to pitch into the 6th, they have a formula to win without him getting deep into the game so at least 0.5u on the under.

Chandler Simpson was picked off on Tuesday night as he tried stealing, just one pitch after he was running when Ryan Vilade fouled a pitch off. He had additional chances to steal later but short at bats from the hitters behind him helped stalled those efforts. As the Rays have their back against the wall again here, Simpson should continue looking to run. The main issue I see in this matchup is that Jacob Misiorowski was great at taming the run game this year, allowing just two stolen bases for the entire season. William Contreras is also superb behind the plate, but the game situation here calls for speed to be maximized, and Simpson is the guy the Rays look to for that.

Ivar Stenberg will now get the benefit of moving up to the first line, alongside Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith. This is a huge boost for Stenberg and I'm not sure the books will be so quick to push his prop lines to worse prices just yet with the change coming yesterday at the Sharks' practice. Stenberg has also been hot of late, tallying at least one point in three straight games, with an assist on a Celebrini goal in the mix. I think something similar could happen tonight, against a Sabre's defense that ranks bottom-five in the NHL with 3.64 goals against average.

Chandler Simpson and the Rays will try to stave off elimination tonight, doing anything possible to win. Simpson has been hitting 3rd and facing Dustin May (and the bullpen) should keep him in that spot in the lineup. Even if lefty Shane Drohan pitches, I think one of the fastest men in all of baseball will be looking to run when his team needs him most. The only reason this didn't cash last night was because Simpson was thrown out over-sliding 2nd base. William Contreras' arm has been a weapon during this postseason, but he didn't really "catch" Simpson last night, rather the speedster got himself out by mistake. I think he makes up for it tonight and steals at least one base.

The Brewers will have nine at bats against the Rays pitching staff and starter Freddy Peralta as the away team in Game three of the World Series. Milwaukee's offense has been relentless thus far in the postseason, leading nearly all offensive categories and most recently showing no panic when coming back from down four runs to win a couple nights ago. Freddy Peralta should be fastball heavy, a pitch that this Brewers lineup was solid against this year, and the changeup has not fooled them either. With a 2-0 lead in the series, all the pressure is off Milwaukee, so they can swing free and easy, be relaxed, and continue scoring some runs.

I almost feel obligated to play this one again, after Jackson Chourio stole not one but two bases for us on Saturday! They were his first stolen bags of the postseason, and I think now that he's got them under his belt, and a 2-0 series lead, the Brewers come out playing relaxed and can use their speed without hesitation! Nick Fortes likely starts vs. the lefty over Liam Hicks, and he threw out just 15/75 runners from behind the plate this year. Milwaukee is well aware of Fortes' woes throwing out runners, and I think they take advantage at some point.

The Kings won in Artemi Panarin's return to NY last year after being traded, but he was held without a goal thanks to Igor Shesterkin. Tonight, Panarin is back in NY against his former team, but he gets an easier assignment with James Reimer in net this time. Reimer has only seen action in recent years because of major goalie injuries, and I'm not buying the success from his recent shutout against an AHL team translates here. Winning two of their last three, Panarin scored for LA in both victories, so I'm betting he stays hot and finally gets that revenge goal at nearly 2-1 odds! Over 2.5 SOG at -125 is good too, but I wouldn't go past that price.

Jackson Chourio has yet to steal a base in the postseason, but he was second on the Brewers this year with 23 stolen bases and will be atop the Milwaukee order again tonight. Drew Rasmussen and Liam Hicks present an opportunity to bet some stolen base props, albeit I would go light and have some fun here. Rasmussen allowed 23 stolen bases this year, tying him for 4th in MLB among qualified starters, and Liam Hicks has already been stolen on during this World Series and was league average at best at throwing out runners. Nearly 5-1 on Chourio for a stolen base tonight is good enough for a 0.25u in my opinion!

Jack Roslovic has exceeded this line in all but one game thus far, and he's racked up 3+ shots on goal in 6/12 games this year. Those results, and three recent performances with five shots on goal has be looking up the ladder for plus money here too. The Oilers will go to Tristan Jarry at goal, and I think the Maple Leafs fire plenty of shots on net, with Roslovic in the mix for a couple at least. Edmonton is also down top-defenseman Matthias Ekholm, which should open things up a bit for scoring chances as well.

Nathan MacKinnon and the Avs went winless on their two-game, east coast road trip earlier this week, but return home looking to bounce back against a tough opponent. Both losses were decided by just one goal each for Colorado, and MacKinnon couldn't get on the score sheet in either game. I think he bounces back well here, at home where he's been much better thus far. With 11 points at home and five goals in five games, the Avs' star will be needed if they want to beat Tampa and avoid a three game losing streak. He was over this line in both games vs. Tampa last year, and MacKinnon has been a shot machine in Colorado, registering 9,4,8,4,8 SOG at home this year.