Shohei Ohtani will only be pitching tonight as Dave Roberts wants him to focus on just pitching here. In looking at the Astros order, the addition of Zach Cole could play a pivotal role in the prop line here, with the youngster being called up from the minors after a short rehab stint, and still finding his timing at the plate. He hit a home run last night but also struck out twice, and Ohtani is prominently featuring a split finger to lefties now with a near 40% whiff rate. The sweeper/fastball combo has also been great against righties, both above a 40% whiff rate, and with guys like Cole, Matthews and Smith in the bottom of the lineup, it gives Ohtani some easier targets.
Dealing with a stiff neck, Jose Soriano still gutted out five innings and racked up six strikeouts with 19 whiffs in his last start. The splitter was lethal with three strikeouts and seven whiffs, yet he struggled with command at times, walking three, and had to work himself out of multiple messy innings. Facing the same lineup but this time at home, I'm not going to overthink this and take the over again. The White Sox are one of the highest whiff rate teams in MLB, and Soriano has been incredible at racking up the swing and miss this year. 7,8,9 and even 10 Ks if you have it available! 0.5u/0.35u/0.15u
We could still use more data on Peter Lambert but he's racked up 16 strikeouts through his first couple of starts for the Astros with a notably high whiff rate. The Orioles have one of the league's lower zone contact rates and Lambert has found success at keeping hitters off balance with his changeup and then running fastballs by them in the zone. Needing five strikeouts here after producing a 40%+ whiff rate on all of his pitches thus far entices me to take the over.
Going with a strikeout ladder on Cristopher Sanchez in hopes of a bounce back at home. He gets an couple extra days of rest coming off his roughest outing of the season, allowing 12 hits and six runs to the Cubs. Sanchez faced this San Fran lineup earlier in the month and struck out six batters while allowing eleven hits in five innings, so in a game where they likely need him to pitch a bit deeper, I'm taking a shot on the over. If he can be even slightly better on a few batters than what we saw in the previous outing against this lineup, he'll get over this line. 0.5u/0.35u/0.15u for 7,8,9 Ks.
The Yankees start Elmer Rodriguez in his MLB debut against the Rangers. He's struck out 5+ batters in three straight starts in AAA, and the lower strikeout line makes for a solid ladder opportunity. There's always added risk backing a pitcher on debut, but he's been able to pick up strikeouts at an above average rate in AAA and should be seeing a normal starter's workload, after pitching into the 6th inning in back to back starts. I played 0.5u on over 3.5 Ks at -121 earlier (in discord), and 0.35u/0.15u on the 5th/6th strikeouts, but the prices have taken a hit. At -160 or worse for a 4th strikeout now, I'd rather just play over 4.5 Ks at this price and leave it there.
Manager Kurt Suzuki wanted to have a shorter leash on Jose Soriano last time, because of the lighter rest period and larger workload in his previous outing. Soriano now comes in with an extra day of rest, and having thrown just 84 pitches in that start, which sets him up for extended work here. The Angels bullpen blew another lead last night too, so going to the bullpen early isn't really an option. Besides the projected workload, Soriano is facing a lineup with a few younger/inexperienced guys towards the bottom of Chicago's order, and will get six lefties. He's been better at picking up strikeouts vs. lefties, featuring a 47%+ whiff rate on both his curveball and splitter, while showcasing a solid four pitch mix.
The Cubs have lost two in a row after 10 straight wins. They actually might have the easier travel/rest situation though, after the Padres finished their series in Mexico City with a loss late on Sunday and have a quick turnaround home. Starter Randy Vasquez has underlying numbers that point to regression and the bullpen may not be at full strength to back him up. A 4.32 xERA is well above his 1.88 actual ERA and the xFIP is the same story, while his barrel and hard hit rates have jumped compared to last year and are higher than league average. Matthew Boyd faces a Padres lineup that's bottom-five in OPS against lefties, so I'm siding with the Cubs at this price.
Kodai Senga should get Hunter Goodman in the lineup tonight and after two absolutely terrible outings, I'm banking on him getting back to his strikeout ways against a Colorado lineup that should yield some whiffs. The forkball has still been lethal this year and at some point the price on the 6th strikeout should be worse than this. I also like the ladder here, because if he's to go over 5.5 Ks, I think he gets into that 7-8-9 range. He's going to need a major turn around but gets some extra rest and a home start after pitching in tough conditions in Wrigley last time out.
Nolan McLean has been one of the only bright spots for the Mets, and he's thrown 93+ pitches in four straight starts. The Rockies are near league-worst for pitches per plate appearance and with McLean's strikeout upside, he should be able to work out of any jams with swings and misses. He's allowed just eight hits in 18+ innings against lefties and gets six of them today, and despite some improvements for the Rockies in the strikeout department, I'm not sold yet. McLean has a deep arsenal of pitches and this is the first time the Rockies will see him. Projecting 18 outs, I'm taking a shot he gets into the 7th. Doubleheader today so maybe they try to save the bullpen in game one?
The swinging strike and whiff numbers on Cole Ragans leave something to be desired this year, and the Angels have been significantly better at avoiding strikeouts against lefties, so why bet this? Even after getting blitz'd last time by the Yankees for three HRs and walking a career high eight batters, Ragans still struck out six. He's been at a minimum of 1 K/inning in 3/4 starts, not counting when he left with injury. His best start this year was his only start at home, when he struck out eight in six solid innings, so I'm betting Ragans finds some of that strikeout form again, while the Angels regress back somewhat towards their dismal 2025 K rates. Priced relatively fair, so I'm taking a shot!
German Marquez is allowing nearly 50% fly balls, which may work in Petco Park but at nearly 7,400 ft elevation, he could run into trouble. We have thinner air than in Denver and a higher altitude, so giving up hard hit fly balls and barrels isn't a recipe for success here. Furthermore, it's the lefties that Marquez has struggled with, allowing 12 hits (3 HR) and four walks in just 8.1 innings thus far. This DBacks lineup will feature six lefties tonight, five in the first six batters of the order, so even if he makes it through a couple times unscathed, is pushing Marquez through all those lefties a third time the best move? At plus odds I'll take the under.
Sandy Alcantara can set Miami up nicely to begin the road trip by eating innings here. He's thrown 95+ pitches in three straight starts, yet missed the over on this line in his last two. In those starts he allowed 10 hits and seven runs across six innings, and uncharacteristically walked six batters in five innings last time out. This should be an easier matchup though, against a Giants team that ranks dead last in OPS against righties and last in drawing walks as well. Alcantara is once again on an extra day of rest so the workload should be there, and this is one of the few ballparks he gets a positive bump over his home park.
While there's value on the full game ML/RL, I'm targeting Max Scherzer in the F5 here. This is a rather large starting pitcher mismatch by the numbers, as Gavin Williams has been exceptional, pitching to 3.11 xFIP (3.51 xERA). Max Scherzer has a 5.42 xFIP (6.11 xERA) and even if the left on base rate and BABIP metric point to Scherzer having some positive regression, I don't believe this is a good spot for that to happen. He's allowed 10 hits in 11 innings to lefties, while they have a .385 expected wOBA on his fastball, which is thrown nearly half the time. None of his pitches are missing bats and with a lineup that could feature all lefties, I'm siding with Cleveland and Williams.
Winning 14 of their last 16 games, the Padres have also been on a roll away from home, with wins in seven of 10 so far on the road. Chase Dollander was great for the Rockies on the mound last night, holding the San Diego bats to just one run, and Tomoyuki Sugano is a significantly worse option tonight. I expect the Padres bats to score early and often after being nearly shut out yesterday, and at this price the run line is showing some value. I don't love Walker Buehler but in the end he should be better than Sugano, and there is a major edge for the Padres bullpen in the later innings.
At +100 odds, this is at least worth 0.5u. Some of the projections may be overvaluing a small sample size of at bats from this A's lineup, even if they are missing some of their best strikeout targets. Same thing on Logan Gilbert, maybe an overvaluing of early season strikeout "struggles" yet he's hit 7+ Ks in 3/5 starts. His swinging strike rate has dipped to 12%, but his pitches are all grading out similar or better to last season in terms of Stuff+, and I think he's better than the numbers show. We get a premier strikeout talent at home and plus odds on the 7th strikeout. Not going to overthink it at this price.