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    Angelo Magliocca

    Amags

    Angelo Magliocca is a rising MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. Over the 2022 and 2023 MLB seasons, Amags went 549-450 (plus 63.4 units) on straight plays and parlays while winning an additional 34.6 units on ladder plays. He produced those results, in part, by leveraging the strikeout prop market. Amags appears regularly on The Early Edge, SportsLine's popular daily betting show. For Angelo Magliocca media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    @amagspicks
    LAST 152 MLB PICKS
    +1503.5
    RECORD: 89-63-0
    # 4 MLB EXPERT
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    89-63 IN LAST 152 MLB PICKS

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    Angelo's Past Picks

    Jul 14 2024, 8:07 pm UTC
    League
    Seattle
    2
    @ L.A. Angels
    3
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Fanduel is giving us -104 for a 6th strikeout. I would not be surprised to see Logan Gilbert "empty the tank" in his final start before the break. He won't pitch in the All Star Game and Seattle needs a win to avoid losing the series, plus it would mean they lock up 1st place in the AL West for the 1st half! He has an impressive 16% swinging strike rate since June 1st and he's routinely been over this number in that time. The Angels present a middling matchup for strikeouts but the slider is a pitch they have struggled with. Gilbert uses a heavy fastball/slider pitch mix, with a 34% whiff rate on the slider, so he should lean on that here.

    Pick Made: Sun 5:37 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 11 2024, 7:45 pm UTC
    League
    Toronto
    5
    @ San Francisco
    3
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    On the season, the Blue Jays have been solid at avoiding strikeouts but in a shorter, more recent sample, they're seeing some regression. To start July, Toronto has allowed five of seven right handed starters to eclipse this line and the two misses both came at four strikeouts. You've heard me talk about Jordan Hicks and his strikeout upside before, but another interesting piece is he had 17 whiffs in his last start and 10 in the start prior; some very encouraging numbers. Umpire Bill Miller generally provides a significant boost to strikeouts as well, so I'm backing Hicks to finish off a 5th strikeout at plus odds.

    Pick Made: Jul 11, 7:11 am UTC on Caesars
    Jul 05 2024, 11:10 pm UTC
    League
    Chi. White Sox
    3
    @ Miami
    2
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Drew Thorpe has gone six innings in his last two starts and nine of 11 starts at AA this year. Capable of pitching into the 6th inning, especially if he's going well, Thorpe gets a Marlins lineup that is seeing the least amount of pitches per plate appearance in MLB, by swinging early and often. He features a changeup that keeps hitters off balance, while inducing weak contact and whiffs but he's struggled with command, walking 12 batters in just 20 MLB innings. To help him out, Miami has been MLB's worst team at working walks, with a 5% rate on the year and even worse in June! This should be at 16.5 in my opinion so I'll take the over.

    Pick Made: Jul 05, 3:01 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 05 2024, 11:05 pm UTC
    League
    Boston
    5
    @ N.Y. Yankees
    3
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Despite the Yankees' recent starters not getting deep into the games and them needing innings from pitchers right now, I still think at this price it's worth a fade on Nestor Cortes. The Red Sox have been brutal with strikeouts vs. lefties so maybe Cortes could use the swing and miss to get out of any jams he's facing, but he also has a chance to be pounded by these hitters, as Boston ranks top-10 in OPS vs. lefties since June 1st, and have improved even more over the last couple of weeks. At this price to not finish six innings, it's worth a shot for a half unit play.

    Pick Made: Jul 05, 3:26 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 04 2024, 4:35 pm UTC
    League
    St. Louis
    3
    @ Pittsburgh
    2
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Andre Pallante has been over this strikeout total in five of six starts since the move from the bullpen. There's talk of him sticking as the 5th starter moving forward, because of his solid results, so trust is being built with each start. He's bumped his pitch count up to a full starter's workload as well, throwing 95 and 88 pitches the last two times out, so he should have enough run to at least get opportunities to hit the over here. Pallante should use his curveball against this lineup, as they've struggled with that pitch and it's a pitch he has a 40% whiff rate on.

    Pick Made: Jul 04, 2:46 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 04 2024, 2:10 am UTC
    League
    Arizona
    12
    @ L.A. Dodgers
    4
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Freddie Freeman has been excellent of late, hitting .319 in June and ripping the game tying rbi double late last night to help the Dodgers eventually pull out the win. Cristian Mena has a tough challenge here, coming up from AAA, where he has struggled mightily against lefties, allowing a .319 average with 11 home runs surrendered in just 30 innings. Freeman, Ohtani and the other Dodgers lefties should have at least a couple at bats here against an arm they certainly should be able to handle. Despite not getting walks included here, at plus odds I like backing Freeman here to go over.

    Pick Made: Jul 03, 10:10 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 04 2024, 12:10 am UTC
    League
    Tampa Bay
    2
    @ Kansas City
    4
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Michael Wacha and the Royals will try to avoid the rain, after the weather caused a delay that killed pitcher props Tuesday and I'm wary of a similar fate here. Regardless, I like this spot for Wacha to get a 5th strikeout against Tampa Bay, but let's take the risk down to 0.5 unit. He had six strikeouts last time against Cleveland and five punch outs before that, which was his first start back from the IL. His swinging strike rate is above 13% since returning and the changeup has been a strong piece of his arsenal to get those results. The weather is my main concern, but over 4.5 for -120 on MGM is worth at least 0.5 unit in my opinion.

    Pick Made: Jul 03, 7:41 am UTC on Caesars
    Jul 03 2024, 11:20 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    1
    @ Atlanta
    3
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    This year the Braves have not avoided striking out like they did last year and losing Ronald Acuna hasn't helped. There is some risk that Jordan Hicks gets blown up here, pitching in Atlanta against an offense that still has some fire power, but he can also grab five strikeouts easily. Hicks is routinely underrated by the sportsbooks (in my opinion) and at +105 on MGM, I'll back him for a 5th punch out. The splitter and sweeper have solid strikeout metrics and all three of his main pitches rank inside the top 20 for Stuff+ ratings among MLB starters. The splitter grades out as the best among any qualified starter, and this lineup has struggled to not strike out against that pitch.

    Pick Made: Jul 03, 8:41 am UTC on Caesars
    Jul 03 2024, 11:07 pm UTC
    League
    Houston
    9
    @ Toronto
    2
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    The Astros should be a stiff test for Yusei Kikuchi, as they enter this game as one of the top teams against lefties over the last month and on an 8-2 run in their last 10 games. Kikuchi has been a different pitcher since turning the page to June and I'm not convinced July will treat him better, as he's been hit hard nearly half of the time and barreled up a good amount of late. Over his last six starts, Kikuchi has allowed at least four runs in four of them and gone six full innings just twice since mid-May. The pitch count hasn't run up very high lately either, with just one of six starts in June being of 90+ pitches.

    Pick Made: Jul 03, 7:58 am UTC on Caesars
    Jul 03 2024, 10:45 pm UTC
    League
    N.Y. Mets
    5
    @ Washington
    7
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    The last two nights a lefty has performed well against the Mets, who came into this series scorching hot against left handed pitching. After 10 strikeouts vs. DJ Herz yesterday, the Mets will see yet another lefty in Mitchell Parker, who throws the fastball nearly half the time. That pitch has an expected wOBA of .348, while the actual wOBA is just .280, and his secondary pitches share a similar story, with expected stats signaling regression. Despite great performances from MacKenzie Gore and DJ Herz the last two games, the Mets didn't allow either to finish six innings. Over Parker's last 10 starts, his outs line closed at 17.5 just twice, against Colorado and Miami, so this should be 16.5 at most in my opinion.

    Pick Made: Jul 03, 8:15 am UTC on Caesars
    Jul 01 2024, 10:45 pm UTC
    League
    N.Y. Mets
    9
    @ Washington
    7
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Joining my colleague Propstarz here, as a small slate has provided limited options. We played the under on Framber Valdez against this Mets lineup Saturday and you have to keep fading strikeouts for lefties facing New York right now. JD Martinez was almost a problem for us vs. Valdez, as he struck out twice, but the rest of the lineup only accounted for three strikeouts from 24 batters faced. They put up 10 hits and six runs in that effort, and MacKenzie Gore is at risk of a similar fate here. The Mets did have to travel and Gore has some fairly solid strikeout metrics but I still think the line should be 5.5 so I'll take the under.

    Pick Made: Jul 01, 1:06 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jun 30 2024, 11:10 pm UTC
    League
    Texas
    11
    @ Baltimore
    2
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Corey Seager could be out of the lineup, but Cole Irvin still should not be favored to finish six full innings in my opinion. Texas improved against lefties during June and they're looking to snap a six game losing streak here, avoiding a sweep on Sunday Night Baseball. Irvin generally doesn't have a very long leash to pitch deep into games and Texas has boosted their walk rate against lefties of late, which could help eat into his pitch count. The O's bullpen was used a lot in yesterday's win but Irvin has not consistently finished six innings, so under 17.5 at +100 odds on DK looks a solid bet. Anything can happen on Sunday though, so I'll make this a half unit...

    Pick Made: Jun 30, 8:50 am UTC on Caesars
    Jun 30 2024, 5:35 pm UTC
    League
    Miami
    6
    @ Philadelphia
    7
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    The Marlins have seen their strikeout rate spike after trading away Luis Arraez and at +125 on Fanduel, this is worth a half unit shot. Miami's recent performances vs. lefties don't provide much confidence that they'll be a stingy matchup either, as four of the last five lefties to start against them went for nine-plus strikeouts. Suarez doesn't have eye popping underlying strikeout numbers but the Marlins should provide him with an opportunity to work deeper into the game here. Once the odds hit +100 or worse, I'd probably pass on this one.

    Pick Made: Jun 30, 8:23 am UTC on Caesars
    Jun 29 2024, 8:10 pm UTC
    League
    Houston
    9
    @ N.Y. Mets
    6
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Framber Valdez has been over 5.5 Ks in four of 13 starts this year and this won't be an easy matchup against the Mets. As a team they haven't struck out much, especially against lefties, where their collective strikeout rate drops below 20%. Fransisco Lindor has been avoiding strikeouts vs lefties and he sets the ton at the top of the order. This lineup also has a few guys with rather high walk rates and Valdez can have issues with walks, averaging two walks per start currently. The Mets possess MLB's best OPS vs lefties since June 1st and have been one of the better teams all year vs southpaws, so it would be helpful if the Mets bats knock Valdez around.

    Pick Made: Jun 29, 10:42 am UTC on Caesars
    Jun 28 2024, 11:20 pm UTC
    League
    Pittsburgh
    1
    @ Atlanta
    6
    +1454.5
    85-60 in Last 145 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Charlie Morton can do some damage with strikeouts in this matchup, as long as he keeps his walks in check. The Pirates have been slightly better of late but since June 1st they're top five in strikeout rate against righties and over the last couple of seasons, these hitters don't have a track record of being very adverse to striking out. The curveball should be an issue for the Pirates, along with the changeup, as each pitch features a whiff rate above 30% for Morton and the curveball specifically is one pitch these Pittsburgh hitters have collectively struggled with. Now that Sean Murphy is back behind the plate, I'll take plus odds for Morton to record a 6th strikeout.

    Pick Made: Jun 28, 8:16 am UTC on Caesars