The bullpen has been stretched the past few days for the Dodgers with Blake Snell's injury cutting his start short and Justin Wrobleski covering three innings as a starter yesterday. The game breakdown yesterday may have been more by design but this is still a bullpen that has been worked lately, and Glasnow really should use this time to get himself right. He's struggled the last couple of starts, allowing four runs in each, and he missed a considerable amount of time this year so last-season workload management isn't a thing for him. He's hit 6+ Ks in four straight starts with solid underlying strikeout metrics, and faces a depleted Giants lineup that's just waiting for the season to end. I'm taking 8,9,10 Ks too!

Playing over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI tonight on Cody Bellinger but also took the over 1.5 total bases, which is +130 at best. Bellinger has been scorching hot in September, producing a .390 average with 38 total bases in 59 at bats. Those total base numbers are incredible and we get him facing a lefty here in Arizona. We usually stay away from the left on left matchup, but Bellinger is hitting .290 vs. lefties as opposed to .268 vs. righties, and Eduardo Rodriguez has strangely been worse against lefties as well. That side of the plate is producing a .267 average (.223 vs. righties) while hitting the ball hard over half the time, so I'll back the Yankees' slugger to keep it going.

I'm going to take a shot on both pitchers in this game to have some strikeouts tonight. The line for outs on Walbert Urena is at 17.5 but the strikeouts is at 4.5 still and at some point his stuff is just too good to be going that deep into the game without racking up some Ks. Whether injuries or replacements, the Twins have also swapped a few hitters in their order with players that have less MLB experience, as Emmanuel Rodriguez, Ben Ross and Walker Jenkins all project in the lineup tonight. I'm more interested in the 6,7,8 levels but am also taking over 4.5 here.

With the opponent and the way that Taj Bradley has been pitching, I'm going to play the over on strikeouts tonight. The swinging strike rate against righties has bumped up to 13% over the last month and he's grabbing whiffs at a higher rate as well against both sides of the plate. For the work he should see, and the trend of his strikeout stuff lately, six strikeouts should be the floor here so I'll go over.

Kyle Harrison is pitching to a seven ERA in the second half of the season and allowing a boatload of runs across his last three starts. Last time out he was so bad he was pulled before even recording an out, but of course that is a major outlier. Still, he has done nothing but struggle lately, and Chad Patrick is rested and ready to go here today behind the lefty. There is no official news so Harrison should be seeing a normal starter's workload, but with how bad he's been running and this game being on the road where he's been worse all season, I'm taking a shot that he can't (or they don't push him to) complete the full five innings here.

The Dodgers hooked us at four runs last night, leaving a bunch of men on base as missed opportunities were the storyline. Freddie Freeman broke out for three hits though, and he says he will be back in there tonight after coming out of the game feeling great thanks to a new swing adjustment. We also got unlucky that Will Smith sat last night, but he should be back in there today. I like the matchup against Andrew Abbott, who's been struggling, allowing 4+ runs in four of his last six starts, and continually failing to pitch deep into the game. Cincy will have to pitch to the Dodgers nine times here as the home team, so I like LA to hit five or more.

Pete Alonso was hitless last night with a walk, but got a great ovation and video on the big screen, and I'm sure there were lots of emotions. He mentioned it took a bit of time to get comfortable with all that was going on, and I think tonight that is all behind him and he's ready to hit #300 over the fence. Facing a lefty, he's been better vs. lefties this year than in recent years, hitting .260 with nine home runs. a long ball gets it done here but any extra base hit in this matchup would be great for us. I like the HRRBI over 1.5 at -110 the best here with two solid righties behind him in the order as well.

The Dodgers offense was completely dormant on Monday night and it doesn't help they were missing Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani. The status of Freeman is up in the air but I think he could play tonight against the righty. Regardless, this Dodgers lineup was watered down six days ago when they faced Rhett Lowder and they still scored 14 runs, seven of which came off the starter. LA's top 3 hitters went 0-12 last night which feels like an outlier, and yet they scored four runs on a couple homers. I'll take them to have five or more runs scored tonight in a better offensive effort.

After racking up over 100 strikeouts in AA ball against righties, he's struggled to grab whiffs and strikeouts at the MLB level. He likely is still acclimating to the much higher level of competition, and at some point I think he's going to break out, so why not tonight? This lineup is about as good of a strikeout matchup as you can ask for from the right side, and this Angels lineup chases a ton, along with making the league's lowest rate of contact on pitches chased out of the zone. If Anderson continues to pitch deeper into games, he should see plenty of strikeout chances tonight, he just needs to finish them off! I'm interested in the 7,8,9 Ks ladder at plus odds!

Randy Arozarena is hitting nearly .300 this year against left handed pitchers, and Jacob Lopez has been worse at home in Sacramento and against righty batters. The Seattle slugger is coming off a two hit night where a home run helped his team score 19 runs. I think this should be closer to even money at worst, so I see some value on DK for the total bases here. I also played 1+ walk for +118 being that he's sandwiched between two lefties in the order, and Lopez would likely want to go after them rather than Arozarena in a big spot. Over 1.5 HRRBI (-133) would be my first pick but I like Total Bases if we're getting a bit of value.

Jeffrey Springs was great in Seattle last start, covering seven innings and allowing just two hits and no runs, but he has to do it again and at home this time. His ERA splits are noteworthy, with a 7.18 at home vs. nearly three runs less on the road. It's never easy to do well against the same lineup in back to back starts, and this makes for a huge negative park shift. George Kirby has to do the same, after allowing four runs on seven hits last time out against the A's and his road ERA is nearing six. The A's pitchers have to cover nine innings, so I don't mind Seattle Team Total but for the same price, I'll take the full game.

Being on the road for nine straight days now, the Angels are on a long east coast trip and things can get ominous at this point in the season. Cavalli has excelled against lefties for strikeouts but has been better vs. righties of late, and he may get a couple of extra lefties in the bottom of the order which could provide a huge boost. Cavalli has bumped up the swinging strike rate to lefties above 15% in the last month, but to righties the overall K rate is high, even if the underlying stuff has lacked a bit of late. Still, he should be able to grab strikeouts tonight in what makes for a softer matchup.

Kazuma Okamoto has homered in back-to-back games against the A's and he's in the lineup once again for this day game. The A's will use an opener, southpaw Brady Basso, giving us a great matchup early in the game, but even after he's pulled, I like Okamoto's chances of doing some damage. He's produced a hard contact rate above 50% against righties and at 60% against lefties, while continuing to lead the Jays in fly ball rate. This is one of the best hitting environments on the board today, and as we know this ballpark helps turn fly balls into home runs. Even a mere double would be fine though, so at plus odds I'll take the over!

The Cubs knocked Jacob Misiorowski out of the game in just four innings last start, and they'll face him for the second time in a week now. Miz does get the advantage of pitching at home here, as he noted the humidity in Wrigley Field was a problem last time out. Still, I have the Cubs projecting over three runs and would price this around -145 at worst, so I think we have some value left. Even though Chicago only scored three runs last night, they got one late off closer Trevor Megill thanks to a PCA homer, so the full nine at bats is key here. The Brewers bullpen has also been stretched thin over the last few days.

Jacob Lopez has allowed 15 home runs in 75 innings against righties this year, making that the far worse side of his split and putting Kazuma Okamoto in a great spot to go deep. He’s hitting the ball hard nearly 60% of the time when facing a lefty this year, and has a team high 38% fly ball rate to go along with a 16% barrel rate. This ballpark helps turn fly balls into home runs as we’ve seen many times, so take the Blue Jays slugger to hit one (or maybe two) out of the park tonight.