AJ Smith-Shawver has a been able to grab strikeouts at the minor and major league levels, with totals in this year's starts being 4,6,7,8,5. The 4.5 line is much closer to his floor than his ceiling here and he will face a Rockies team that's been worst in MLB at avoiding strikeouts. There isn't much experience on the Colorado side in facing him and the splitter has been the go to strikeout pitch for Smith-Shawver, and that pitch tends to play up in Coors Field's altitude. Look for him to nail a 5th strikeout and head up the ladder! Nearly 80 pitches last start as well, not too much worry in the way of a leash here.

I would still play this at -170, as I think the strikeout props are miss-priced here by a wide margin. Carlos Rodon has struck out at least eight batters in four straight and despite lasting just four innings in his starts against the O's last year (both in Baltimore), he still went over this line in each. After the O's won on Monday, look for Rodon to turn in a solid performance against a team striking out at the 5th highest rate against left handed pitchers, while producing a league worst OPS. His swinging strike rate is down from previous years but the called strike rate is up (not sure it's sustainable) and he's running a 30%+ whiff rate over the last couple starts.

I really think we're getting good value here on both the ML and -1.5 price for the Yankees tonight. The O's have been MLB's worst team so far against lefties, with a putrid .491 OPS and strikeout rate above 27%. Carlos Rodon has looked solid over his last couple of starts and the Yankees bullpen was well rested last night thanks to Ryan Yarbrough eating up some innings after Will Warren's early departure. It looks like a hot night in Baltimore and the wind blowing out, so Rodon will need to keep the ball in the park, but I make him and the Bombers a much heavier favorite over Kyle Gibson and this O's offense.

Nick Martinez projects much closer to 15 outs than 18 outs tonight. He's failed to finish six full innings in four straight starts and only achieved the over on this line once, in his first start of the year. The Reds got a couple of quality starts recently which has kept their bullpen fresh, and mostly everyone should be available tonight. The Cardinals have been hot of late against righties and they've bumped up their walk rate to go along with it. Not much needs to go wrong to simply not finish the full six innings, and I have a bit of value on this number while still at 17.5.

Should be 16.5 at least, projecting him around 17 outs here. Last time out, Canning lasted only five innings but got out of a jam in the 5th and it was against the Phillies, so I could see why he wasn't allowed to go back out for the 6th. After the game, Mets' Manager Carlos Mendoza said he was pulled because of this being his first time on regular rest and the lineup he was facing. After being scratched for illness a couple starts back, Canning pitched the next day and threw 102 pitches, going six innings. The Nats should be a softer opponent than the Phils and he's on an extra day of rest here, so I'll ride the over.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has recorded at least nine strikeouts in three of his last four starts, twice reaching double digits, and maintains a swinging strike rate near 14%. He’s pitched at least six innings in three straight games, consistently throwing 90+ pitches and reaching 100 two starts in a row. Yamamoto has allowed just three earned runs in five starts, with none over his last three, helping him pitch deeper into games. His splitter, with a whiff rate over 50% and a Stuff+ of 107, is a dominant weapon and Pittsburgh's lineup has struggled against splitters, making this a favorable matchup for him to use that put away pitch. At +120 for eight strikeouts, there’s value in backing the Dodgers' ace to rack up Ks tonight.

Game three of this series, the Nats won games one and two, O's looking to avoid the sweep now. MacKenzie Gore faces off with Cade Povich, and I have the wrong team favored in the F5 here. Washington used up some of that bullpen to win a close game last night, so I don't trust them full game (if ever) but I do think Gore provides a solid edge over Povich. 3.06 xERA vs 6.60 xERA. The O's also rank 3rd in MLB in OPS against righties and dead last against lefties, while the Nats have also been better vs. lefties it's been a smaller split. Look for Dylan Crews to keep his hitting streak alive against the lefty.

Royals play two games today, and Cole Ragans will lead them off in Game one. The Rockies have produced just a .591 OPS against lefties so far this year and the stable of young hitters in their lineup that strikeout a ton, should not be a tough match for Ragans. I see him running the strikeouts up into the double digits again but the straight line is 8.5 and this price for him on the outs prop is too good to pass up. Ragans always has ability to get deeper into the game and on a day when Kansas City may need some extra arms, against a rather unassuming offense, I will take a shot he can get an out in the 7th inning.

Wrong team is favored here in the F5. The Nationals' bullpen is worst in MLB, but we can avoid them with the F5 and get Mitchell Parker on the mound. He's worked six innings in every start and is a favorite to go over 17.5 outs tonight. Baltimore has been near MLB worst against left handed pitching in basically every category after being one of the top teams last year. I think they're likely due for some regression but when? Parker threw into the 6th inning while allowing five hits and two runs against this lineup last year and he's improved a couple of his pitches since. Dean Kremer has struggled with lefties, and the Nats have seven in the projected lineup.

Max Meyer has struck out at least seven batters in three of four starts and currently possesses a swinging strike rate above 13%. He'll face a Reds team scored 24 runs yesterday in Baltimore but they were in the bottom 1/3 of MLB for OPS against righties before that. They were also striking out at a top-10 rate (23%) and Meyer has used the slider on a majority of his strikeouts, which is a pitch this lineup has struggled to not whiff on. I'll back a 6th strikeout at this price.

Max Fried has pitched into the 7th inning in two straight and is starting to pitch like the ace he can be. With at least 94 pitches in each start, getting deeper into this game would help a bullpen that's been used a lot recently. New York is in the middle of a two week stretch where they have just one off day, with two days off in April. Tampa's lineup has just a .651 OPS against lefties, and finished with just two hits a couple nights ago against lefty Carlos Rodon. Fried was also pulled last time after 6.2 innings and fought to stay in the game; he's a bulldog that wants the ball and I'll take a shot at this price.

From my daily article in the analysis tab... We're taking a shot on Drew Rasmussen to start the strikeout ladder here at six and work his way up. He hasn't worked past five innings in any of his starts so far and sports just a mere 8.7% swinging strike rate, but the Stuff+ metrics are over 110 and his swinging strike rate is likely due for some positive regression.

Some books at 4.5 and I would still bet the under as long as it's plus odds. A Phillies lineup that's been sent packing less than 20% of the time vs. right handers, there's only one batter in the projected lineup who's struck out worse than 20% when facing Alcantara and those are larger sample sizes thanks to being division rivals. The pitch arsenal for Sandy has remained nearly identical to pre-injury and he possesses very solid Stuff+ numbers at 110. Yet, his actual strikeout total continues to lag as in previous years, staying under 20% so far, and inducing a ton of ground balls. Projecting much closer to four K's than six here.

The Yankees' numbers against lefties are buoyed by 15 runs over six innings against Nestor Cortes and Bailey Falter. Both lefties are much worse than the southpaw they will see tonight, Kris Bubic. New York has also faced lefties Robbie Ray, Tarik Skubal and Andrew Heaney, resulting in 23 strikeouts in 17 innings and two runs allowed. Bubic has thrown at least 92 pitches in each start and avoids fly balls, which helps when pitching in Yankee Stadium. His swinging strike rate in 30 innings last year was a healthy 15% and that number looks about the same so far this year, which is great news. About 30 cents of value here imo.

Finding value at this price for Kris Bubic against Clarke Schmidt, who is coming off the IL for his first start of the year. The Yankees have won the first two games of this series and despite the lack of run production from the Royals so far this year, I do believe their offense is due for some positive regression. Kris Bubic has been stellar and the Yankees have struggled against lefties not named Nestor Cortes or Bailey Falter.