Mike's Picks (2 Live)
Mike's Past Picks
Cooper Flagg has grabbed at least seven rebounds in each of his last six games. The rookie has been playing a ton right away, averaging 34 minutes per game for the season. This should be an up-tempo game with both the Heat and the Mavericks ranked inside the top six in the league in pace of play. The Heat have allowed the second-most rebounds per game in the league, which makes this over appealing. When Flagg faced them last week, he finished with seven rebounds.
Miles McBride has scored at least 14 points in three of his last four games. In each of those matchups, he started and played at least 33 minutes. OG Anunoby (hamstring) and Landry Shamet (shoulder) are currently out. This is also the second game of a back-to-back set, so Mitchell Robinson could sit out for rest. McBride should play at least 30 minutes against a Hornets team that has the seventh-worst defensive rating in the league, so I like this over.
Anthony Edwards has scored at least 31 points in each of his last five games. His usage rate for the season is 32.7%, which is on pace to be the highest mark of his career. He is only averaging 25.0 points per game at home, compared to 32.9 points on the road. The Pelicans have the third-worst defensive rating in the league, and this game will be played in New Orleans, so look for Edwards to remain hot in the scoring department.
Josh Hart has started and logged at least 34 minutes in each of the last four games. During that span, he averaged 11.8 rebounds and 7.0 assists while reaching at least 15 combined rebounds and assists in each game. When he faced the Celtics earlier this season, he had 14 rebounds and three assists in just 19 minutes off the bench. Hart should continue to play a lot with OG Anunoby (hamstring) out, making this over appealing.
Ivica Zubac has hauled in at least 12 rebounds in five of his last eight games. He is averaging 11.5 rebounds for the season after hauling in 12.6 boards a night last season. This is a great matchup for him against the Heat, who have played at the fastest pace and allowed the second-most rebounds per game in the league. When he faced them earlier in the season, he finished with 18 rebounds over 33 minutes. This is a big number, but I still like the over.
I like to play rebounding props for players who are facing the Pacers. The Pacers don’t have great centers, which has contributed to them allowing the fourth-most rebounds per game in the league. Jarrett Allen (finger) is out, which means Mobley should play more minutes at center. Allen also was out the last time these two teams met, and Mobley finished that game with 12 rebounds. Mobley is in a great spot to reach double-digit rebounds again.
Vince Williams Jr. has started each of the last six games for the Grizzlies with Ja Morant (calf) out. He compiled at least 12 combined rebounds and assists in five of them. That included a game against the Kings in which he posted five rebounds and 15 assists. The Kings have played at the eighth-fastest pace in the league, which has contributed to them giving up the sixth-most rebounds and the fourth-most assists per game. Williams has a great opportunity to stuff the stat sheet again Sunday.
Santi Aldama has logged an average of 28 minutes over his last 10 games. That helped him produce averages of 15.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists. With regards to this prop, he combined for at least 23 points, rebounds and assists in nine of those 10 games. That included when he recorded 29 points, five rebounds and three assists versus the Kings. The Kings have played at the eighth-fastest pace and have the third-worst defensive rating in the league, making the over the way to go here.
Reed Sheppard scored 31 points in his last game, which was not an easy matchup versus the Warriors. He also recently scored 27 points against the Nuggets. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 17.7 points and shot 52.7% from the field. The Jazz have played at the fifth-fastest pace, have allowed the sixth-highest three-point shooting percentage and have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league. In a game in which Sheppard could approach 30 minutes, I like him to hit this over.
Josh Giddey grabbed 11 rebounds in a loss to the Hornets on Friday. That was the eighth time over his last 10 games that Giddey has hauled in at least nine boards. The Pacers have been awful at controlling the glass, allowing the fourth-most rebounds per game in the league. Look for Giddey to be busy in the rebounding department again.
The Hornets just played Friday night against the Bulls. Normally, LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller have not been playing both games of back-to-back sets. They both played Friday, so I’m going to take a chance and say they sit out Saturday. Miller didn’t play the last time the Hornets faced the Raptors and Kon Knueppel came away with 24 points. I’ll take this over.
As Luka Doncic prepares to face his old team, he has scored at least 37 points in three of his last four games. This game will be played in Los Angeles, where Doncic is averaging 39.3 points per game this season. The last time we saw Doncic play the Mavericks, he scored 45 points in a game in Dallas. He’s on fire right now and he’ll be hyped up to face his former team, so I’ll take this over.
Keegan Murray has started and played at least 37 minutes in each of the last three games. The added minutes helped him score at least 19 points in each of those games. The Kings already came into the season thin up front, but they really need Murray to play a lot right now with Domantas Sabonis (knee) out. The Jazz have played at the fifth-fastest pace and have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league, which leaves Murray with a great opportunity to stay hot in the scoring department.