Mike's Past Picks
Shaedon Sharpe has started each of the last 12 games for the Trail Blazers. Not only did he start, but he averaged 35 minutes during that span. That helped him score at least 17 points in nine of those 12 games. That included a matchup against the Celtics in which he scored 25 points. Jerami Grant (knee) is listed as doubtful again, which should continue to afford Sharpe with plenty of minutes and shot attempts.
Zion Williamson (back) and Yves Missi (hip) will not play in this game for the Pelicans. That should leave Karlo Matkovic to make his sixth start of the season. He hauled in at least 9 rebounds in four of his previous five starts. When he logged just 20 minutes off the bench against the Pistons last week, he still finished with seven rebounds. The over is the way to go here.
Domantas Sabonis (ankle) remains out for the Kings. DeMar DeRozan has scored at least 22 points in six of the last eight games that Sabonis has missed. For the season, he has averaged 22.2 points per game. The last time he faced the Bucks, he scored 28 points over 36 minutes. With plenty of shot attempts likely coming his way, this over is appealing.
Jimmy Butler recorded a triple-double in Thursday’s win over the Raptors. He has posted at least 14 combined rebounds and assists in five of his last seven games. In the two games that he didn’t reach that threshold, he had 12 and 13 combined. With Stephen Curry (pelvis) out, Butler should have the ball in his hands a lot against a Hawks team that has played at the second-fastest pace in the league. Expect him to receive a lot of opportunities to rack up rebounds and assists.
Sandro Mamukelashvili exploded for 34 points over 19 minutes against the Knicks on Wednesday. He went 7-for-7 from behind the arc in that game. That marked his fourth straight game with at least two made three pointers, three of which came at home. He has shot 45.6% from behind the arc at home this season. In a battle between two bad teams, I like taking a chance at these odds for Mamukelashvili to play long enough to make a couple of three-pointers.
The Heat can’t score right now. They have not topped 113 points in any of their last 11 games. During that span, they went 1-10 with their lone win coming against the Wizards. Scoring will likely continue to be difficult for them against the Rockets, who have the fourth-best defensive rating in the league. The Rockets are also expected to get Amen Thompson (ankle) back from injury, further fortifying their defense. This is a great spot for the Rockets to cover.
Tre Jones has become a key member of the Bulls starting lineup. Not only has he started eight straight games, but he averaged 33 minutes during that span. With him playing so much, he combined for at least 10 rebounds and assists in six of those eight games. In the two that he didn’t, he just missed with nine and eight combined. Lonzo Ball (wrist) is still out, so Jones should play a lot again Thursday.
With Zach LaVine (personal) out Wednesday, DeMar DeRozan scored 27 points against the Cavaliers. It’s unclear yet if LaVine will play Thursday. If he doesn’t, DeRozan should receive a ton of shot attempts and have a great opportunity to reach this over. Even if LaVine does play, this is still a favorable spot for DeRozan to score at least 24 points. The Bulls have played at the third-fastest pace and they have the seventh-worst defensive rating in the league. Also, Domantas Sabonis is still out.
Tre Jones has started seven straight games for the Bulls. He averaged 15.3 points and 6.9 assists during that span. In terms of this prop, he recorded at least 18 combined points and assists in five of those seven games. In the other two games, he just missed with 16 combined each. The Suns have the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league and Josh Giddey (ankle) could miss his fourth straight game for the Bulls, so don’t be surprised if Jones blows past this line.
Bradley Beal (hamstring) will be out at least one week for the Suns. With him out Monday against the Raptors, Booker scored 27 points over 32 minutes. Over the last seven games that Booker has played without Beal, he has averaged 27.7 points. This is a great matchup for Booker against the Bulls, who have played at the third-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. The last time he played them, Booker scored 29 points. Look for him to have another big night in the scoring column.
These two teams are heading in opposite directions. The Pistons are 13-5 over their last 18 games and all 13 of those wins came by at least five points. The Heat have lost eight straight games with six of those losses coming by at least five points. The Pistons are 23-10-2 ATS on the road this season, including 10-2 ATS as a road favorite. Combine all of that with the Pistons not having any key injuries and I like them to cover this spread.
Norman Powell scored just seven points against the Hornets on Sunday in his return from a hamstring injury. He only played 23 minutes in the lopsided win for the Clippers and he shot just 3-for-13 from the field. This should be a closer game against the Cavaliers. He is averaging 23.4 points per game for the season and shooting 50.1% from the field at home. We’re getting a discount here because of the potential for him to play limited minutes, but I think he plays close to 30 minutes in a close game, so I’ll take the over.
The Nets announced over the weekend that Cam Thomas (hamstring) will miss the remainder of the season. That should leave Keon Johnson with added minutes and shot attempts. Thomas has missed the last two games for the Nets and Johnson scored at least 21 points in both of them. That included a game against the Celtics, who he will face again Tuesday. Going back further, Johnson has scored at least 18 points in each of the last three games without Thomas. While he usually doesn’t shoot for a high percentage, the potential for a higher usage rate makes this over appealing.
DeMar DeRozan has scored at least 22 points in eight of his last 14 games. In 11 of those games, he scored at least 20 points, so there were also some near-misses. The Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace in the league, so this is a scoring-friendly matchup. DeRozan has faced them two times already this season and he scored at least 26 points in both games. Look for him to have another strong offensive showing the third time around.
The Knicks have played four straight games without Jalen Brunson, who will be sidelined again Monday. Mikal Bridges had at least eight combined rebounds and assists in each of those games. In total, he averaged 4.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game during that span. When he faced the Heat earlier this month, Bridges had four rebounds and eight assists. When he faced them back in October, he recorded three rebounds and six assists. Give me the over here.