Mike's Picks (2 Live)
The tanking seems to have already begun in Utah. In their last game versus the Mavericks, they sat Jusuf Nurkic for rest. Kyle Filipowski started in his place and recorded 25 points and nine rebounds. For Thursday, they have ruled out Lauri Markkanen. When Filipowski closed last season as a starter, he averaged 14.8 points and 10.1 rebounds over 11 games. Add all of that to Deandre Ayton (elbow) being out for the Lakers and I like this over.
With the Nuggets being shorthanded, Nikola Jokic has put the team on his back. Over their last four games, he has scored at least 36 points three times. The one time he didn’t, he scored 28 points. Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are still out, and even Peyton Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr. are listed as questionable for Thursday. Don’t expect the likes of Wendell Carter Jr. and Goga Bitadze to slow down the three-time MVP.
Klay Thompson has been much better since moving to the bench for the Mavericks. He averages 12.2 points as a reserve, compared to 8.8 points as a starter. Also working in his favor Thursday is the Mavericks playing in Dallas. He averages 9.9 points on the road, but 11.9 points per game at home. With regards to this line, Thompson has scored at least 10 points in eight of his last nine games. I’ll take the over.
Dylan Harper scored 21 points when the Spurs lost to the Knicks in the NBA Cup championship game. He is only averaging 13.1 points per game for the season, but injuries have resulted in him playing 11 of his 15 games on the road. As the Spurs return from Vegas and face a Wizards team that has the worst defensive rating in the league, there are a couple of paths to Harper playing around 30 minutes in this game. If he does, he could blow past this line.
Jaren Jackson Jr. played 33 minutes and scored 31 points in his last game Monday versus the Clippers. Still, he grabbed just four rebounds. He has hauled in fewer than six rebounds in six of his last eight games and is averaging 5.0 rebounds for the season. Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle have helped the Timberwolves allow the 11th-fewest rebounds per game in the league, so Jackson could be in line for another quiet night on the boards.
The Cavaliers continue to play without Evan Mobley (calf) and Sam Merrill (hand). With those two sidelined Sunday against the Hornets, Jaylon Tyson recorded 16 points and 13 rebounds. Over his last 11 games, he has combined for at least 20 points and rebounds eight times. The Bulls have the seventh-worst defensive rating and have given up the sixth-most rebounds per game in the league, so look for Tyson to be productive again.
In his first game back from a calf injury, Victor Wembanyama played 21 minutes off the bench against the Thunder. He still scored 22 points. For the season, he is averaging 25.8 points per game. It’s possible that he comes off the bench again and is on a minutes restriction, but he could play closer to 25 minutes in this NBA Cup championship game. Last season, he scored 42 points in a marquee Christmas game against the Knicks. With the NBA Cup in the line, look for Wembanyama to assert his dominance and hit this over, even in limited minutes.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is not a good rebounder for a player of his size. He is averaging 5.0 rebounds per game and has averaged fewer than 5.9 rebounds per game in all but one season of his career. This is not a favorable spot for him to rack up boards because the Clippers rank 11th in rebounds allowed per game. Jackson has already faced the Clippers two times this season and he didn’t register more than three rebounds in either game. I don’t play many unders, but I like this one.
Jakob Poeltl is averaging four fewer minutes per game than he did last season. Still, he has averaged 10.2 points and 8.0 rebounds. The Heat have a lot of size in Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware, so the Raptors might need Poeltl to play more in this matchup. He faced the Heat three times last season and combined for at least 20 points and rebounds in each of them. The Heat have played at the fastest pace and allowed the second-most rebounds per game in the league, so this over is appealing.
Anthony Edwards (foot) will not play in this game. When he sat out Friday against the Warriors, Julius Randle scored 27 points over 34 minutes. Edwards has missed five games this season. Over those five games, Randle averaged 26.6 points. Combine Edwards being out with the Kings having the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league and Randle has a favorable opportunity to hit this over.
Trey Murphy III has scored at least 20 points in eight of his last 10 games. He is averaging 21.2 points per game for the season. The likely reason why his line has been set this low is that Zion Williamson (adductor) is trending towards playing. Jordan Poole is also back. While they will eat up some shot attempts, the Bulls have played at the second-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. Murphy can still come away from this game with at least 20 points.
Kon Knueppel is averaging 5.5 rebounds per game for the season. He should play a lot Friday with LaMelo Ball, Collin Sexton and Tre Mann all out. Ball has missed eight games this season and Knueppel recorded at least five rebounds in six of them. The two times that he didn’t, he had four rebounds each against two good rebounding teams in the Nuggets and Thunder. The same can’t be said for the Bulls, who have allowed the sixth-most rebounds per game in the league. When he played the Bulls a couple of weeks ago, he finished with five rebounds over 32 minutes. Despite the juice, I like this over.
Jarrett Allen (finger) and Sam Merrill (hand) will remain out for the Cavaliers. Jaylon Tyson has started each of the last eight games that they have missed. In that role, he combined for at least 21 points and rebounds seven times. Helping his cause was that he logged at least 31 minutes in six of those games. The Wizards have the worst defensive rating and have given up the most rebounds per game in the league, which puts Tyson in a favorable spot to remain productive.