Mike's Picks (2 Live)
Kevin Porter Jr. has averaged 38 minutes over the last 12 games for the Bucks. During that span, he recorded at least 13 combined rebounds and assists nine times. That included a game against the Timberwolves in which he had 10 rebounds and nine assists. Not only is Anthony Edwards (rest) out for this game, but the Timberwolves will be without their best rebounder and interior defensive presence in Rudy Gobert (suspension). With a hefty workload likely coming Porter’s way again, this over is appealing.
Anthony Edwards (rest) and Rudy Gobert (suspension) are both out for the Timberwolves. The absence of Edwards is the reason to like this over for Donte DiVincenzo. In each of the last five games that Edwards has missed, DiVincenzo has scored at least 18 points. Over those five games, he averaged 16.0 shot attempts. Even with Edwards playing the last time these two teams met, DiVincenzo scored 18 points.
The big news for this game is that Jaylen Brown (back) is listed as doubtful. Brown has missed two games this season. The first game that he missed, Payton Pritchard scored 20 points on 21 shot attempts against the Wizards. In the second game, he put up 33 points on 24 shot attempts against the Raptors. The potential for Pritchard to attempt around 20 shots against a Pacers team that ranks 20th in the league in defensive rating makes this over appealing.
Sam Merrill is averaging 14.7 points over 10 games since returning from injury. That included him scoring at least 15 points in each of his last five games. Dean Wade (knee) won’t play Monday, which should help Merrill’s minutes. Also helping his cause to hit this over is that the Jazz have the worst defensive rating in the league. The cherry on top is that Merrill shoots 51.5% from the field at home, compared to 44.1% on the road. Look for him to stay hot in this matchup.
VJ Edgecombe has recorded at least 10 combined rebounds and assists in six of his last nine games. During that span, he averaged 38 minutes. The Raptors won’t have a ton of size up front Sunday with Jakob Poeltl (back) out. Edgecombe has already played Toronto twice this season. In the first meeting, he had seven rebounds and four assists. The second game, he had six rebounds and four assists. I like him to hit this over again.
Jalen Smith has been upgraded to questionable after missing the last two games with a concussion. When he suffered the injury against the Hornets, he had already compiled nine points and five rebounds over just 15 minutes. Prior to that, he had recorded at least 18 combined points and rebounds in three straight games. I think Smith plays Saturday and thrives against a Mavericks team that is missing their best interior defender and rebounder in Anthony Davis (finger).
It will be a skeleton screw for the Thunder when they face the Grizzlies on Friday. They have already ruled out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle), Chet Holmgren (shin), Isaiah Hartenstein (calf), Cason Wallace (toe) and Jaylin Williams (heel). Alex Caruso (back) is also questionable. That leaves Ajay Mitchell as the team’s second-best scoring option behind Jalen Williams. Over 10 games in which Mitchell has played at least 30 minutes this season, he has averaged 17.3 points. He has a path to at least 35 minutes Friday, making this over appealing.
Collin Murray-Boyles has taken on an expanded role with Jakob Poeltl (back) out. Over his last eight games, he has logged an average of 26 minutes. During that span, he combined for at least nine rebounds and assists six times. That included a game against the Celtics in which he had six rebounds and four assists over 23 minutes. Brandon Ingram (thumb) is a game-time decision and Scottie Barnes (knee) are questionable, so even more minutes could be in the cards for Murray-Boyles if either of them can’t play. Look for Murray-Boyles to continue his increased production.
Cooper Flagg has recorded at least six assists in six of his last eight games. The two times that he didn’t during that span, he finished with five assists each. This is a great matchup against the Jazz, who have allowed the most assists per game in the league on their way to having the worst defensive rating. Flagg finished with six assists in a previous meeting with the Jazz this season and I like him to come away with at least that many in their rematch.
Moussa Diabate has averaged 12.0 rebounds over his last seven games. In five of those matchups, he had at least 11 boards. His uptick in production coincides with the absence of Ryan Kalkbrenner (elbow), who will be out again Thursday. Kalkbrenner played the last time the Hornets faced the Pacers and Diabate still finished with 12 rebounds. The Pacers have allowed the third-most rebounds per game in the league, so I like Diabate to have success against them again in that department.
I get that the Raptors have the fourth-best defensive rating in the league. However, Kon Knueppel has scored at least 18 points in 10 of his last 11 games. The one time that he didn’t, he had 16 points over 15 minutes before leaving early with an injury. Facing a Thunder team that has the best defensive rating in the league in his last game, Knueppel scored 23 points over 28 minutes. In three previous meetings with the Raptors, he scored 24, 20 and 21 points. I’m not letting the Raptors’ defensive rating shy me away from this over.
VJ Edgecombe has averaged 38 minutes over his last 11 games. For the season, he is averaging 5.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists over 36 minutes a night. This is a great matchup against the Wizards, who have the second-worst defensive rating in the league. They have also allowed the most rebounds per game and the third-most assists per game. In two previous meetings with the Wizards this season, Edgecombe recorded 10 and 12 combined rebounds and assists. In one of those games, he only played 24 minutes in a blowout win. I like his chances of hitting this over.
Stephon Castle has recorded at least seven assists in eight of his last nine games. For the season, he has averaged 7.1 assists. The Grizzlies have struggled defensively, allowing at least 116 points in seven of their last eight games. I’ve bet the over on this number for Castle a lot lately and have certainly been pleased with the results. Given the Grizzlies’ defensive struggles, I’m happy to play this over again.