I'm so so so SO excited for this matchup. The top four spots in Germany qualify for Champions League next season. Stuttgart is currently in 4th with 57 points. Hoffenheim is in fifth with 57 points as well, but down on goal differential. A win here is critical for both sides and Hoffenheim have been monsters at home. Not only though , does winning matter, but so does stacking goals for the goal differential. We have two of the best attacks in Germany clashing in a must win game. Let me sit back, pour my coffee, and enjoy betting the over.
We're getting to that point in the season where some clubs are starting to show their fatigue more than others. Teams like Hoffenheim haven't really had to deal with extracurricular competitions, while Stuttgart is still in the Pokal Cup, and their players have looked exhausted in recent weeks. While Hoffenheim just beat Dortmund, Stuttgart looked slow and sloppy in their draw against Werder Bremen last matchday. While both teams are certainty capable of making this a tricky matchup, I'm backing the in form side at home.
Hoffenheim have done incredible this season, especially considering how poor they were last season. They finished the last year 15th on the table barely avoiding relegation. Now, they are fifth on the table, and are just two points behind Stuttgart and that all important fourth on the table position. Bundesliga's top four teams qualify automatically for UCL play next year, and Hoffenheim want to be there. They're taking on a beaten and bruised Hamburg side who has been a punching bag for the majority of the season. I don't only think Hoffenheim win this, but I think they win it by multiple goals.
I know that seeing an under in a Bayern Munich game is about the grossest thing imaginable in Bundesliga play, but hear me out. Bayern Munich have already won the league. The Bundesliga title is theirs. This game against Mainz doesn't matter, but what does matter is PSG. Bayern play PSG on Tuesday in Champions League. Expect Bayern to rest multiple big names to prep for that match that is infinitely more important, which could lead to a rare, boring match Mainz
Frankfurt this season have the second highest goals per average per match in the Bundesliga. The only team averaging more goals per match than them, is a Bayern Munich team who have 109 goals scored. Frankfurt's combination of lethal attack and swiss-cheese like defense has led to consistent exciting affairs. Their last four matches have all seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals score, as their defense has conceded eight over those four games. While Augsburg's defense is equally as bad, they know that pressing for goals is how you beat Frankfurt. I'm expected the over 3.5 goals to hit as well if you want plus odds.
St Pauli have struggled this season in more ways than once. Issues with injuries, inconsistent form, and struggles off the pitch have made this a tough season for the club, however, they're fighting to continue to play in the top flight in Germany. Heidenheim are almost surely going down sitting dead last on the table with only 19 points, and while they need the points, I just don't have confidence backing the worst defense in Germany. St Pauli aren't much better, but the fight they showed against Union Berlin and Koln has me giving them a slight edge.
I always hate saying that "a team doesn't care about a match", but that's the truth here. Bayern Munich are nine points clear at the top of the table. This match against a relegation struggling St. Pauli side is sandwiched between two UCL matches against Real Madrid for the Bavarians. Vincent Kompany will have his squad rotate heavily for this match, prioritizing their UCL tie over this match. I expect St Pauli to play defense, be scrappy, and try to sneak a a point in a low scoring fixture.
I cannot overstate the importance of finishing in the top four in the Bundesliga. The top four teams at the end of the season are guaranteed a spot in next season's Champions League. With that not only comes the chance to win the biggest European title, but also comes with a great deal of extra finances for the clubs. Leipzig are currently sitting third on the table, but are even on points with Stuttgart who is in fourth, and only three points ahead of Leverkusen. Leipzig cannot slow down, and have been finding some good form as of late. I expect them not only to win at home, but win by 2+ goals.
Wolfsburg are drowning at the moment. The team is sitting 17th on the table, in the relegation zone, four points behind St. Pauli. The team has been struggling on both ends of the pitch, and currently have the most goals conceded in the entire league with 63 goals allowed. This team can't string together a pass from the back to save their lives. Frankfurt might not be in the best form, but this DNB line is a blessing, and I think Frankfurt win outright against their floundering opponents.
Hoffenheim and Augsburg have been experiencing a bit of poor form as of late. Hoffenheim have now gone their last three matches without a win, losing to Mainz and Leipzig while drawing Wolfsburg. Augsburg have been in even worse form with no wins in their last four. Both teams desperately need to end their winless streak, but I believe that Hoffenheim are the side with the quality to make that happen. Sitting fifth on the table and fighting for a Champions League spot, expect the visitors to finally turn things around.
I know that Frankfurt hasn't had their usual devastating offense on full display this season, but this is still a really solid team fighting for European contention. They've put up 50 goals this season, and more importantly for this over, they've conceded 51 goals this season. This team is leaking goals and has found themselves time and time again getting in slug fests against their opponents. Koln isn't the best team by any means, but are motivated by fear of relegation and will press for goals against a leaky Frankfurt side.
We saw these two take the pitch against each other in Dortmund back in November. The Black and Yellow put up a fantastic performance picking up three goals from Can, Beier and Adeyemi, but only managed a draw as Deniz Undav secured a hattrick for Stuttgart. These are some of the best offenses that Germany has to offer, and two teams that have been in tremendous afform in the final third of the pitch. I wouldn't be shocked at all if we saw a similar final score as the last time they clashed.
There is only a single club in the top flight of German footy how has conceded more than 60 goals this season. Welcome to dead last on the table Heidenheim! They are sitting with only 15 points over 27games, and as the season starts to wind down the desperation has become palpable. While we aren't seeing them win, we are seeing them score some dang goals. They went lights out against Leverkusen last matchday and found a 3-3 draw. This team can't afford to sit back, and have to press to try to get points. I expect not only 2.5 to clear, but 3.5 as well.
Bayern are the best team in Germany and possibly the best team in Europe right now. If Bayern played their best starting XI for 90 minutes they'd win this game by 3+ goals. However, this is known as a look ahead game for Bayern. Bayern don't need to win, and just three days after this match, they play in Madrid for a UCL match. I expect Bayern Munich to heavily rotate their lineup to make sure they don't pick up any unnecessary injuries, and play this one much slower than we are used to.
Leipzig are in a heated race to finish top four of the Bundesliga to make sure they can grab a Champions League spot next season. They are currently fourth, but are even on points with Hoffenheim which means they really can't afford to slow down. They've been blowing hot or cold this season, but last week they ripped Hoffenheim to pieces 5-0, and showed how good they c an be on their day. Werder isn't good enough to stop Leipzig from scoring, and I expect a big three points here.
