Jon's Picks (6 Live)
I know that -188 is some serious juice, but if you don't like this, take the over 3.5 for plus money instead! While the Bundesliga title race is mostly over already with Bayern Munich pulling further and further ahead, that doesn't mean Dortmund can take their foots off the gas yet needing to secure another UCL spot on the table. They continue to dominate at home and their recent games have let the goals flow. Hamburg are safely in the middle of the table, but their defense will struggle against a Dortmund team that might cover the over by themselves.
Dortmund are coming off a couple of rough matches and now everyone is freaking out. I'm not freaking out at all. Dortmund had to play a grueling three matches against Atalanta, Bayern Munich and Leipzig. While they didn't win any of those three matches, they still put up good fights, especially in the Bundesliga, finding 2 goals against Leipzig and Bayern. Koln are not a good enough side to stop Dortmund, even a rotated Dortmund squad from winning. I'm shocked this isn't -200.
Augsburg changes as a club, after they won the Bavarian Derby against Bayern Munich back in January. This team was struggling to put together any kind of positive result, but after that win, they've been different. They've now won five of their last six matches, and have scored 2+ goals in all five of those matches. While Leipzig on paper is the better team, I don't want to fade momentum that the visitors have going right now.
Mainz and Hamburg are both in the best form they've been in all season long. Mainz have done amazing since their new manger in December, while Hamburg are undefeated in their last five matches. Mainz main goal is to avoid relegation while Hamburg is probably too far out of the top six, abut will look to continue their form. Coming off a 3-2 win over Union Berlin, I like Hamburg to score goals, but their defense will struggle against a high-attacking Mainz side.
Hoffenheim enter this match coming off their worst loss of the season at the hands of the Bavarian giants, Bayern Munich. They'll want to put that loss behind them as quickly as possible, and they have the chance to do that while playing at home. Hoffenheim remain one of the strongest home clubs in Germany, as they have picked up seven wins and 21 points from their 10 home matches this season. Freiburg are a good side, but struggle on the road, and while they're probably score here, their defense will struggle against the hosts.
Bayern Munich had a rare blip in form over a two week period which saw them lose to Augsburg and draw to Hamburg. They apparently immeidately corrected that form by smacking down one of the best teams in Germany, Hoffenheim, 5-1. Now the team has confidence and momentum on their side as they take on an extremely out of form Werder team. These two teams met four times over the last two season, and Bayern Munich has outscored them 13-0 over those games. Expect another clinical win for the visitors.
Mainz made the fantastic decision to pick up new manager Urs Fischer back in December. Since the new acquisition, they've pulled themselves out of the relegation zone, and Mainz have won four of their last five matches. I expect that streak to come to an end with a travel to the Yellow Wall. Dortmund remain the only team in Bundesliga play who haven't lost at home, and they've picked up six clean sheets at home on top of that. Mainz are getting better, but this is too big of a task to ask from Urs' squad.
I'm a Bayern Munich fan, so part of me really hopes I miss this bet. The part of me that loves money, thinks this is the right way to play this. Bayern Munich do this every season, they struggle for a like a month without warning. They are coming off back to back poor performances that saw them drop points to Augsburg and Hamburg. They're now playing a Hoffenheim team who are the most in form team in Germany. I think Bayern could still win, but 1.5 goals is wild for how good Hoffenheim have been in 2026, and I wouldn't be shocked to see another draw.
While Bayern Munich are in a bit of a funk right now, even when losing and drawing they've been good for goals. Bayern Munich's 20 matches this season have seen 92 goals. Hoffenheim, while much less than that, have the second best offense with 43 scored in 20 matches. We are going to have Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Luis Diaz, Lennert Karl, and Andrej Kramaric all on the pitch at the same time. I'm going to ladder goals in this one, but I have to take that 3.5 line.