I guess this will be -130 by kickoff. ...

Como's unbeaten home run was ended by AC Milan when the team lost 3-1 on the last matchday. While the score showed them losing, manager Cesc Fabregas talked about how well his squad played and how the scoreline doesn't reflect what should have happened. I agree with him. Como are in my opinion the better club, but Lazio will take advantage of their home field advantage. Lazio loves keeping things cagey, and in my opinion this is ending 1-1, or maybe even 1-0 Como, but love taking the spread with them!

I understand the argument that this could be a low-scoring matchup, but at almost +150 odds this is absolutely worth a play. Verona are still bottom of the table and are pressing for goals every single match. They came into this match off a 2-3 loss to Bologna, and over 2.5 goals has now hit in eight of their last nine matches. Cremonese, just lost 5-0 to Juventus, and before that drew 2-2 to Cagliari. Hellas will push and concede per norm, and I'll look to cash another over.

Roma, the club with the best defense in all Serie A, were absolutely embarrassed by Torino in Coppa Italia earlier this week. Torino had just conceded 12 goals over 20 matches, and Torino put in three past them. The main reason this happened is Roma made the risky choice of resting big names like Paulo Dybala, Evan Ndicka, Antione Arena and more. They won't be resting players this time around, and Roma will be desperate to get revenge and three points in the Serie A race.

I spent the first 15 matchdays talking about how embarrassing this Fiorentina squad was. A staple in Serie A play didn't pick up a single win 15 matches into the season. After 15 matches, something finally clicked with this squad when we saw them beat down Udinese 5-1. Since then, they've beaten Cremonese, and picked up draws against both Lazio and Milan. The defense is performing better, the teams coming together and their attack is hitting the target. We might see three straight draws, but I love the spread here for the visitors.

Fiorentina is fighting tooth and nail for each point in Serie A, and if they keep this up they might shock the world and avoid the terrifying drop to Serie B. We saw them get in a shootout against the lowest scoring team in Serie A, Lazio, and recently we saw Bologna scrape by a 3-2 victory against Hellas Verona. Bologna tends to play down to competition and lets teams drag them through the mud, and I love the over here at plus money.

This is the kind of matchup that my fellow greedy bettors will not be a fan of. The head-to-head history in recent years shows a trend of low scoring, physical and cagey affairs with both teams scared to make that first important move. This season, both clubs are just a few points out of the relegation zone which will make it even more cagey. The last three times they've played, the final score was 0-0, 1-0,1-0, with Genoa winning two and drawing one. I hate when the line is set to 1.5 goals, but usually we lean under when that does happen.

Juventus new manager Spalletti has really turned things around for Juventus this season. This is a team that is playing like a team that wants to score and a team that isn't afraid to take risks on a high line full of counter attacks. Young Turkish star Kenan Yildiz continues to impress while Jonathan David is finally finding his place with this squad. Coming off a 5-0 smackdown on Cremonese, this team is flying high and should cover this with time to spare as they prep for UCL play.

Juventus, similarly to Inter and Napoli, do have to play this Serie A fixture and a UCL match just a few days later. The difference with Juventus, however, is that manager Spalletti has made it very clear this team is making a run for the Scudetto, and will play their big guns early on. I'm expect Juventus to play their best XI, with the full intention of ending this match in the first half. Look for Juventus to score in the first half lines, and maybe find some ladders as well! 3-0 or 3-1 final scoreline is my guess!

Inter and Napoli are in the same spot for Serie A this week. They have a match they should easily win, however, they're going to rotate their best players to prep for an even more important upcoming UCL match. Napoli play Copenhagen later next week, and Napoli are on the cusp of missing out on the next round of UCL play. They can't risk injuries or additional fatigue, and will play Sassuolo for a low scoring victory, while prioritizing their players for Copenhagen. Sassuolo should keep this close and I don't see them losing by multiple goals.

Napoli played a bizarre nil-nil draw to Parma in the last matchday. They dominated in every possible stat in this match with four times the shots on target and almost 70% possesion, but they couldn't capitalize on any of their chances. Now they're playing a slightly better Sassuolo side, and will be desperate to win this time out. They don't have the ability to play their best players for a full 90 minutes with UCL just a few days after this. Expect Napoli to rotate and play for a 1-0/2-0 kind of scoreline.

The usual things are true in this matchup. Inter Milan are the much stronger side on paper. Inter Milan have a better defense and attack and Inter Milan still need points in the Scudetto Race. The main thing here, though, is that Inter Milan are going to be distracted by upcoming UCL play. They have this match against Udinese and just three days later, they are hosting the best team in Europe, Arsenal for an important UCL clash. Inter Milan will still play to win this, but will rotate their squad heavily to prep for UCL. I'm expecting a low scoring win for Inter, and 1.5 goals is too much.

Inter Milan 100% have the ability to win this matchup while scoring 3+ goals as a team. They have the ability to do that, but I don't believe that they will. A win is a win, and Inter Milan will be prioritizing their upcoming UCL match against Arsenal. I expect their best goal scorers Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram to both have limited playtime so they can rest. I'm expecting a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Inter Milan, while Udinese park and play for a low scoring draw.

Different week same bet! When Pisa plays at home, we fade them and take unders. When Pisa plays on the road, we bet on goals and for them to draw! Pisa still only have a single win at home this season, while also only having a single goal scored at home as well. While Pisa is falling a part at home, Atalanta is finding their their form having picked up five wins over their last six matches. Expect Pisa to struggle as always, and Atalanta to win 1-0 or 2-0!

While Pisa did see over 2.5 goals hit in their last home match against Como, that was their first over at home of the season, and it only went over off a 90+6 minute penalty kick from Como. Just because it missed last time doesn't mean that we stop betting it. Until Pisa change how they play in front of their home fans, I'm going to continue to bet unders on everyone of their home matches regardless of their opponents.