Right now the over 2.5 goal line is set to -120. I love this line, and I would be okay taking Roma over 2.5 goals by themselves if you want some plus numbers in front of your wager. Roma are one of the clubs most motivated in all of Serie A going into the final matchday. While some clubs are going to be already checked out, Roma will not be. A win here get's them a top four finish, and they couldn't have asked for a better opponent in a must win game than Verona. Verona are already relegated and have the second worst defense in Serie A. I expect Roma to not only win this match, but dominate from start to finish.
Verona are already relegated. This last match is irrelevant, and no matter how well or poorly they play, nothing will change. While Verona's season is already over, this is the most important match of the year for Roma. Roma are sitting fourth on the table, and a win here guarantee's them a spot in Champions League next season. They need to win this game, and I don't expect Gasperini and his squad to hold back against a mentally and physically defeated Verona side. This match could very well be 3-0 at halftime. Look at Donyell Malen to have an impact on this game as he continues to tear up Serie A.
It's easy on paper to say "Como is ranked 5th on the table and Cremonese is ranked 18th, so this one should be easy", but it's deeper than that. Como are currently two points behind Roma on the table. If Como win and Roma loses, Como will find themselves finishing in a Champions League qualifying position, so they'll want to press for goals. On the other side, Cremonese is currently in the relegation zone and are one point behind Lecce. This means a win for Cremonese could be the difference between relegation and survival. Cremonese's defense isn't good enough to stop Como from scoring, so they'll have to press for multiple goals. I think over 3.5 goals will hit as well.
Cremonese are currently sitting 18th on the table and are in the relegation zone. They are, however, just one point behind passing Lecce and avoiding the drop. They got a bit lucky in their last win over Pisa when Pisa had two men sent off with reds, but Cremonese has shown some heart in the final stages of the season. There is a chance they avoid the drop and stay in the top flight, but only if they manage to take points off Udinese. Udinese are the better team and are in better form, but these last couple games for them are pointless. I expect Cremonese to pickup at least a draw in this matchup.
Both clubs enter matchday 36 with everything to play for, but for entirely different reasons. Como is currently sitting sixth on the table as they fight to maintain a European qualifying position, while Verona are mathematically relegated if they do not win this match. While Verona are most likely going down already, a win here does keep the flame alive. While Verona will want to find points here, I think this will be an ugly, one sided affair with Como putting in 3+ goals by themselves. A win here matters, but so does goal differential. Verona have been horrendous defensively all season long, nothing should change this match.
Como are fighting tooth and nail to finish in a top four Serie A position and qualify for Champions League this season. They are currently fifth on the table, three points behind Juventus. While they're faltering a bit towards the end of the season, they can still pull it off if they finish strong. They have a brutal match ahead of them in second on the table Napoli, but their attacking form should lead to goals. Look at their last matches. 4-3 to Inter, 2-1 to Sassuolo, 3-2 again to Inter, and they scored two against Genoa. This team does nothing but press, so I'm taking an over once again for Como.
Pisa are all but mathematically relegated after an extremely disappointing year back in Serie A. Pisa have played 34 matches and only picked up two wins over those 34 matches. They have the worst defense in the league and one of the worst offenses in all of Italy. Lecce is not a good side, but they can avoid relegation if they pick up some points here, and I expect them to go out knowing that Pisa is their best chance at a very important win, and a very important three points.
This is a matchup between not only two of the worst offenses in Italy, but two of the worst offenses in any of the top flights of European football. Pisa has played 34 games this season, and have only scored 24 times. That's bad, however, somehow Lecce is worse with only 22 goals scored in their 34 games. Both teams lack creativity and aggression on the attack. Pisa is already relegated and Lecce will be too scared to make mistakes and drop important points. I think this ends 1-0 Lecce
We are getting a soft line on this match and I believe it's due to Como's most recent couple weeks of play. Como have been fantastic all season long, but hit a little blip in the road coming off back to back losses to Inter and Sassuolo. While they did lose both matches, they looked very solid on attack still. They managed to score three times against Inter, and while they lost 2-1 to Sassuolo, they would have had 3+ goals on a more clinical day. Winning this game is critical to Como if they want to find a top four finish, and I don't expect Genoa to have enough to stop them.
Como my beloved, we meet once again. Cesc Fabregas has worked absolute wonders with this club. Two years back into Serie A Como is currently fighting for a Champions League finishing position. They are currently 5th on the table just five points behind Juventus. While they are coming off a back of couple disappointing performances, this is still a club that has shown a tremendous amount of attacking power. Players like Nico Paz could and should be playing at a top club in Europe, but he's staying in Italy dominating with this club. I expect Como to cover the over without any help from Genoa in this match.
This game is going to be an absolute chaotic nightmare of match. On one hand we have Verona, a club who is 10 points down into the relegation zone, with only three wins and 18 points over their 33 games. They have only 23 goals scored this season, while conceding 56. On the other hand, Lecce have 28 points, and three points here could be the difference between survival and relegation. They do however, have even less goals scored than Verona, with only 22. I expect both teams to sit back and try to just survive, and the lesser of two evils for goals, for me, is Lecce. Give me a 1-0 win for Lecce.
Bologna have comfortably found themselves as a middle of the pack club this season. The team is sitting eighth on the table, well off facing any form of relegation, but are now 10 points behind a European spot, meaning there isn't much chance of finishing in a significant spot. While their motivation for points is dropping, Roma are fighting tooth and nail for a top four finish. The club is sitting sixth on the table, but three points and a win here could propel them past Como to fifth, bringing them closer to UCL play. Expect Roma even in iffy form to be much for a Bologna side who has struggled at home all season long.
Let's start with the obvious points here. Napoli is the better team, and to be frank, it's not even close. Also Cremonese have a terrible attack and have struggled to score all year in Serie A, and yet here I stand taking an over. Why? Because Cremonese are teetering on the edge of relegation. Every single point between now and the end of the season is crucial, and could spell the difference between another year in Serie A, or losing tens of millions of dollars. Cremonese can't stop Napoli from scoring, so expect them to press. I LOVE BTTS here at +125, but expect the over to hit as well.
We're going to walk a bit of a tightrope for this match. I do believe that AC Milan will win this match. I do not believe, however, that they will win it by more than one goal. Udinese have done an incredible job in recent months of keeping matches close against the best teams in Italy. They've played Como, Juventus, Atalanta, Bologna, Roma, Inter and Lazio. This team has covered this spread in their last 15 matches. Even though AC Milan are the better team and will be motivated, I'm not fading a Udinese side who is continuously showing up.
Juventus is the better team here for sure and are heavily motivated as they try to climb their way to a top four position, however, I don't believe they win by multiple goals. Genoa are in fantastic form right now, and if you look at the last six matches against between these two sides, Juventus has only covered this spread a single time. I expect Genoa to keep this close, and wouldn't be surprised if Juventus ends up winning 2-1/1-0.
