Jon's Picks (3 Live)
Como continue to be the biggest breath of fresh air in the entirety of Serie A this season as the club continues to climb heights that very few people expected them to climb. The team is currently sitting in a UCL spot as they are fourth on the Serie A table, but don't have near enough room to slow things down. This is a team that equal on games played with clubs like Juventus and Roma, control their own destiny. They are far superior to Pisa, and while Pisa wallows in relegation, Como's strikers continue to impress. I expect Pisa to win this game, comfortably, by more than one goal, and wouldn't be at all surprised if they run up the score on Pisa.
Parma is not a team we generally talk about when we talk about the Italian clubs really performing, but man do they look good so far in 2026. They are currently on an unbeaten run over their last five matches. During that streak, we saw them beat Verona, take down Milan, sneak ahead of Bologna, and draw against Fiorentina. This is a team that is no longer being written off as a free three points, and I'm not expecting a Torino side, that is limping to the finish line, to beat them.
Fiorentina after an abysmal start to the season, have really started to turn things around. The club won their last two Serie A matches taking down Pisa, which isn't that impressive, but also Como on the road. They've also scored against clubs like Napoli, Lazio, and Torino in recent weeks. Not to mention, when these two teams played in December, Fiorentina stomped Udinese 5-1. Fiorentina is fixing their form, while Udinese has been falling a part. I think Fiorentina will win outright, but I like this DNB line.
Fiorentina have become an absolute delight for those of us that like to bet on goals. Every since they finally picked up their first win they've been fighting for goals tooth and nail every single minute. We've now seen BTTS hit in eight consecutive matches, with seven of those matches also seeing over 2.5 goals. It doesn't matter who they play, they always tend to bring out goals from their opponents.
Hellas Verona's abysmal season continues as the club finds themselves falling closer and closer to a trip back to Serie B. Sitting 20th on the table, they have a lead record 14 losses already this season, just finding 15 points in 25 games. Sassuolo are doing the opposite right now, finding wins in three of their last five matches, and have been fantastic at home. Expecting a big win for Sassuolo.
Como continue to be the talk of the league as this recently promoted side are consinstently fighting and taking points off the biggest clubs in Italy. Under the tutelage of the legendary manager Cesc FÃ bregas, the club is currently in the top six of the table with a massive 11 wins and an almost league low four losses. Players like Nico Paz and Alvaro Morata continue to perform, and they'll be licking their lips at a chance to play a struggling, albeit, high scoring Fiorentina side. I'm expecting fireworks.
AC Milan are currently second on the Serie A table sitting eight points behind their Milan rivals. They good thing for AC Milan is they do have a game in hand, which means they still have a big chance here against a relegation side to cut that deficit to five. This AC Milan side are well rested, and are loaded with healthy and fit attacking Talent. Pisa are abysmal at home, and I expect Milan to go in there, take care of business, and win this 2-0.
Oh look, another even money line for goals in a Fiorentina match. Don't mind if I do! We took the over against Napoli, and Cagliari, and Bologna, so I see no reason not to take it once again against Torino. Fiorentina have now seen BTTS hit in their last six matches straight across all competitions. This is a team fighting from the depths of relegation, and the books haven't caught on to their shift in play style. Take BTTS and take over 2.5 goals for Fiorentina matches.
Last week I took over 2.5 goals in the Napoli v Fiorentina match, and my argument was that this team is missing too many key players, so we should see Fiorentina score. We saw Napoli pull off the 2-1 win, but man did they look shaky defensively. A better team than Fiorentina would have put in 3+ goals. While Genoa isn't much better than Fiorentina, I'm going to continue to bet on goals until Savic is back in the goal for Napoli. Genoa brought out goals in Lazio, so they can do it against anyone.
These two teams have played a combined 46 matches this season, and only in three of those matches has Pisa or Verona picked up a win. These are the two teams that are bottom of the table both sitting with just 14 points. The reason, I'm taking Pisa on the spread though, is because this team is obsessed with draws. They have a league most 11 draws over their 23 matches. When Pisa plays weak opposition, they play for high scoring draws. We've seen three of their last eight matches end 2-2, and I think we see a similar scoreline.
Different week but the same writeup from me! I see Pisa playing on the road, I'm betting on goals, regardless of their opponent. Pisa currently have the highest hit rate of over 2.5 goals when playing on the road in the league hitting in 73% of their away fixtures this season. Hellas Verona, have one of the highest hit rates when paying at home in 64% of their home fixtures. I love BTTS, and I love over 2.5 goals in this match. I'm shocked it's almost +140.
Roma are currently the best defensive side in Italy, and one of the best defensive sides in Europe. The club has conceded a mere 13 goals over their 22 matches, and have only scored 27 across those same games. This is a team that prides themselves on playing authentic Italian football, regardless of how not exciting that might be for the viewers. This team has now gone under 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine matches, and regularly find themselves in 2-0/1-0 matches. Udinese will press them, but I think they'll struggle to crack this Roma backline.