Jon's Picks (4 Live)
Roma are currently the best defensive side in Italy, and one of the best defensive sides in Europe. The club has conceded a mere 13 goals over their 22 matches, and have only scored 27 across those same games. This is a team that prides themselves on playing authentic Italian football, regardless of how not exciting that might be for the viewers. This team has now gone under 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine matches, and regularly find themselves in 2-0/1-0 matches. Udinese will press them, but I think they'll struggle to crack this Roma backline.
Roma have been a force to be reckoned with under the tutelage of Gian Piero Gasperini. This team that normally excels at home, has been doing that, but have also been showing a new level of perseverance during their travels. They currently have the second best away record in Serie A, only behind Inter Milan. Roma have beaten seven clubs on the road already this season, and with Udinese being better on the road than at home, I see Roma getting their 8th away victory.
Juventus made a decision in Champions League to rest the majority of their best players when fighting against Monaco. That match ended 0-0 and now people are saying "Juventus doesn't have it anymore" not realizing they didn't start Yildiz, Adzic, and David. Now, they'll be at full strength to continue their domestic dominance. This is the club that just a week ago embarrassed Napoli, and I have them winning this match by multiple goals against a Parma side who is struggling. Kenan Yildiz TSOA will be worth a play as always, and look for him to link up with Jonathan David.
Como at home for me in the past has been the kind of match where I like to bet on unders, however, the form of both sides right now is deadly. Nico Paz and Alvaro Morata have looked incredible for Como, as the duo are racking up goals left and right. Atalanta, to not be outdone, have Gianluca Scamacca and Charles De Ketelaere have also been having a fantastic season. While Como matches at home tend to be cagey, I'm backing goals with two of the best front lines in Serie A clashing under the lights.
Napoli were knocked out of Champions League in the last matchday of the group stage after conceding three goals to Chelsea at home. While this is a brutal loss in itself, it highlighted the ongoing issues with this squad. Their list of injuries is too signifcant for this team to hold their own defensively. Napoli can only win matches right now with their attack. Expect players like McTominay to push for goals, knowing they'll concede against almost anyone right now. I like BTTS and the over here.
Different week, same writeup! Pisa are at home, I bet under 2.5 goals. Nothing fancy here, no crazy, out of this world analysis. Pisa have hit over 2.5 goals in only 9% of their home matches and in 73% of their away matches. When you see Pisa playing at home, you bet the under, and the reverse on the road. Pisa can't score at home, and Sassuolo are in awful goal scoring form. I wouldn't be shocked if this ends 0-0.
Manager Maurizio Sarri and his men have been having a rough go at things over recent weeks. Lazio have picked up just one win over their last five matches which came against a poor Hellas Verona side. Outside of issues on the pitch, the manager has also been struggling to find positive things to say about his squad in media interviews. Meanwhile, Genoa have been in fantastic form, having taking points off their last five opponents in a row, and finding eight goals over those five matches.
I'm back once again, betting on a Fiorentina over. We cashed the over 2.5 goals as they took on Bologna with Fiorentina continuing their good form winning 2-1. Ever since they beat Udinese 5-1 back in December this team has been looking more and more like their old selves each week. This team is also utilizing more of their attacking threats. It's not just Moise Kean scoring. It's Rolando Mandragora, Albert Guomundsson, and more. Their defense though, still looks off. Cagliari just came off a wild 1-0 win over Juventus and will look to carry that momentum.
Como's unbeaten home run was ended by AC Milan when the team lost 3-1 on the last matchday. While the score showed them losing, manager Cesc Fabregas talked about how well his squad played and how the scoreline doesn't reflect what should have happened. I agree with him. Como are in my opinion the better club, but Lazio will take advantage of their home field advantage. Lazio loves keeping things cagey, and in my opinion this is ending 1-1, or maybe even 1-0 Como, but love taking the spread with them!
I understand the argument that this could be a low-scoring matchup, but at almost +150 odds this is absolutely worth a play. Verona are still bottom of the table and are pressing for goals every single match. They came into this match off a 2-3 loss to Bologna, and over 2.5 goals has now hit in eight of their last nine matches. Cremonese, just lost 5-0 to Juventus, and before that drew 2-2 to Cagliari. Hellas will push and concede per norm, and I'll look to cash another over.
Roma, the club with the best defense in all Serie A, were absolutely embarrassed by Torino in Coppa Italia earlier this week. Torino had just conceded 12 goals over 20 matches, and Torino put in three past them. The main reason this happened is Roma made the risky choice of resting big names like Paulo Dybala, Evan Ndicka, Antione Arena and more. They won't be resting players this time around, and Roma will be desperate to get revenge and three points in the Serie A race.