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    Matt Severance

    Severance Pays

    Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three MLB seasons, Matt is up $2,395 for $100 bettors. Over the past two NBA seasons, Matt has returned $3,215. And over the past three college basketball seasons, Matt is up $2,704. He went 103-89-2 (plus $665) in the 2023 college football season and 121-93-2 (plus $589) in the 2023 NFL season. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    @jordanpaytonsn1
    LAST 170 NBA PICKS
    +2126.25
    RECORD: 112-58-0
    # 2 NBA EXPERT
    +2126.25
    112-58 IN LAST 170 NBA PICKS

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    Matt's Past Picks

    Feb 24 2024, 6:00 pm UTC
    League
    UMBC
    86
    @ New Hamp.
    68
    +645.5
    38-21 in Last 59 CBB Picks
    +518
    26-12 in Last 38 CBB ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Hey I bet different. Don't really care about the price if it's something I like. And this I like. In my humble opinion, this should be north of -300. So some value. I love these little schools and the game notes when they have them. I know way more about the Wildcats mascot than I should, for example. UNH leads the America East in 3-pointers made per game and first in 3-point defense. Let's go big or go home.

    Pick Made: Feb 24, 8:23 am UTC
    Feb 24 2024, 3:00 am UTC
    League
    Milwaukee
    112
    @ Minnesota
    107
    +2126.25
    112-58 in Last 170 NBA Picks
    +1656
    70-30 in Last 100 NBA ML Picks
    +2088.5
    46-15 in Last 61 MIL ML Picks
    Analysis:

    The Bucks have been better defensively under Doc Rivers but worse offensively and only 3-7 overall. Khris Middleton remains out and the offensive issues likely won't be solved until his return. The Wolves are 19-5 at home. Milwaukee has no one to check Anthony Edwards, who has scored 75 points over his last two games, tied for his most in a two-game span in his career.

    Pick Made: Feb 23, 6:06 am UTC
    Feb 24 2024, 2:00 am UTC
    League
    Minnesota
    4
    @ Edmonton
    2
    +332
    12-3 in Last 15 EDM ML Picks
    Analysis:

    FanDuel has this game a good 20 cents or so cheaper on the Oilers than the rest. Such a tough loss for us Edmonton backers on Tuesday with the team rallying from down 4-1 late in the second to force OT. Usually, the club with that kind of momentum wins in OT, and I believe the Oilers would have won in a shootout because they have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl -- but alas no dice because I never win OT games and that's where Boston won. The Oilers had won eight straight at home. They haven't lost B2B games anywhere since about mid-December.

    Pick Made: Feb 22, 11:44 pm UTC
    Feb 24 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Brown
    66
    @ Columbia
    64
    +645.5
    38-21 in Last 59 CBB Picks
    +518
    26-12 in Last 38 CBB ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Columbia trounced Brown 83-69 on Feb. 10. I do subscribe to a payback theory/hard to sweep a fairly even opponent but only if it's the other way around: i.e., if Columbia had been beaten in the first meeting and is now at home. The Lions are shooting 38 percent from three-point range (18th in the country) and have a defensive three-point percentage of 30.7 (45th).

    Pick Made: Feb 23, 5:57 am UTC
    Feb 24 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Iona
    75
    @ Rider
    78
    +645.5
    38-21 in Last 59 CBB Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 CBB ATS Picks
    +500
    5-0 in Last 5 IONA ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Iona is the better team most likely at full strength, but the Gaels' leading scorer and rebounder Greg Gordon (16.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG) just up and left the team for personal reasons. When Rider lost by a point at Iona on Feb. 4, Gordon had 28 points, six assists and five rebounds. Rider is 6-0 in MAAC play when allowing fewer than 67 points and I'm not sure Iona now gets to 67. The Broncs' Mervin James leads the MAAC at 18.6 points per game.

    Pick Made: Feb 23, 12:50 pm UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 3:00 am UTC
    League
    San Antonio
    122
    @ Sacramento
    127
    +770.5
    26-11 in Last 37 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    If the books keep giving us 3.5 instead of 4.5, we are taking it on Wemby. Kinda hoping his minutes limit is raised now that we are in the second half of the season, although it's not like the Spurs are playing for anything.

    Pick Made: Feb 21, 12:22 pm UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 3:00 am UTC
    League
    L.A. Lakers
    110
    @ Golden St.
    128
    +2126.25
    112-58 in Last 170 NBA Picks
    +1656
    70-30 in Last 100 NBA ML Picks
    +1658
    47-16 in Last 63 LAL ML Picks
    Analysis:

    No LeBron James so this jumped a bit -- but still feels low to me with how well the Warriors are playing of late. Klay Thompson came off the bench for the first time in the Dubs' last game and blew up. Perhaps he fits best now as a modern-day Vinnie "Microwave" Johnson. LA is 4-3 without James this season.

    Pick Made: Feb 22, 2:05 pm UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 2:00 am UTC
    League
    Washington
    84
    @ Arizona St.
    82
    +645.5
    38-21 in Last 59 CBB Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 CBB ATS Picks
    +465
    8-3 in Last 11 ARIZST ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Not even sure Washington should be favored and now that we get 3 at least we can't lose ATS on a buzzer-beater. Might be easy for the Huskies to be looking ahead to visiting No. 4 Arizona on Saturday as well. ASU is 5-1 in games decided by three points or fewer this season. The Sun Devils lead the Pac-12 and rank 29th in the nation when it comes to turnover margin, sitting at +3.2. Led by Frankie Collins, ASU forces the second most turnovers/game (13.7) while committing the least (10.5) of any team in the Pac-12.

    Pick Made: Feb 22, 3:59 pm UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    South Alabama
    83
    @ So. Miss
    64
    +645.5
    38-21 in Last 59 CBB Picks
    +518
    26-12 in Last 38 CBB ML Picks
    +122
    2-1 in Last 3 SALAB ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Southern Miss is three games better in in the Sun Belt than South Alabama, which has lost its past four road games but also not played one in 19 days. Andre Curbelo returned from injury against Texas State for USM last time out and scored a career-high 24 points on 8-of-9 shooting. The Golden Eagles are simply a different team when the Illinois transfer has been able to play, which has only been seven games due to various injuries. Southern Miss has won 25 of its last 27 games at Reed Green Coliseum.

    Pick Made: Feb 22, 2:23 pm UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Ohio St.
    79
    @ Minnesota
    88
    +645.5
    38-21 in Last 59 CBB Picks
    +518
    26-12 in Last 38 CBB ML Picks
    +202
    4-1 in Last 5 OHIOST ML Picks
    Analysis:

    While I'm not betting the spread, the Gophers are an NCAA-best 22-3 ATS this season. As a bubble team, Minnesota really has to have this. I'm happy for Buckeyes interim coach Jake Diebler for that big upset of No. 2 Purdue on Sunday, but the Boilers tend to play down to their competition on the road. Speaking of road, Ohio State is 0-7 SU away. It opened Big Ten play with an 84-74 win over the Gophers on Dec. 3 but I take very little from that.

    Pick Made: Feb 23, 12:17 am UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    L.A. Clippers
    107
    @ Oklahoma City
    129
    +2126.25
    112-58 in Last 170 NBA Picks
    +1656
    70-30 in Last 100 NBA ML Picks
    +1151.5
    41-17 in Last 58 LAC ML Picks
    Analysis:

    How healthy is Kawhi Leonard? He missed the Clippers' finale pre-break with an adductor strain and then managed only 10 minutes in the All-Star Game. Also note this is the front end of a B2B. Maybe we get lucky and Kawhi sits (not counting on that). OKC is 21-6 at home and will see the team debut of trade acquisition Gordon Hayward. I thought that was a very underrated addition, although it depends on Hayward staying healthy, which he hasn't been able to do.

    Pick Made: Feb 21, 8:15 pm UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Phoenix
    113
    @ Dallas
    123
    +2126.25
    112-58 in Last 170 NBA Picks
    +1656
    70-30 in Last 100 NBA ML Picks
    +2904
    50-15 in Last 65 PHO ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Rose slightly with the news that Bradley Beal is out but that was the final push I needed. Thought the Mavs were way too flawed to actually contend in the West but love what they did in getting PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline and now they are threats. Phoenix's main issue is depth and obviously that's a bit more of an issue sans Beal tonight.

    Pick Made: Feb 22, 11:35 pm UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Washington
    5
    @ Tampa Bay
    3
    +801.5
    85-59-3 in Last 147 NHL O/U Picks
    +276
    10-5-4 in Last 19 TB O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    When these two last met it was the same goaltending matchup as tonight in Charlie Lindgren and Andrei Vasilevskiy and each allowed just one goal as Tampa won in a shootout. Vasilevskiy has looked nothing short of terrible in back-to-back losses, but I have some faith simply because of his career and also facing a Caps lineup that averages just 2.48 goals per game. That lineup is missing Nic Dowd (16 points) tonight. Whether this wins likely will depend on Lindgren not allowing more than four.

    Pick Made: Feb 22, 9:10 pm UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Montreal
    1
    @ Pittsburgh
    4
    +801.5
    85-59-3 in Last 147 NHL O/U Picks
    +695
    12-4 in Last 16 PIT O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Couldn't justify playing the Under if it was the horrific Jake Allen in net for the Habs, but it's Cayden Primeau in the second of a B2B, and he's at least a better option than Allen. Primeau even picked up his first career shutout in his last game. But this is mostly about Pittsburgh's Tristan Jarry holding the Habs in check. He has surrendered two goals or fewer in four of his past five.

    Pick Made: Feb 22, 6:19 pm UTC
    Feb 23 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Colorado
    1
    @ Detroit
    2
    +801.5
    85-59-3 in Last 147 NHL O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Let's try a FanDuel special the other way with Justus Annunen in net for Colorado. The backup has made three starts this season and allowed four goals in each. If that happens again, we should hit in Detroit as Wings goalie Alex Lyon has allowed 20 goals over his past five appearances. A very rare time where I'm praying for a 3 + 3 = 7 OT game.

    Pick Made: Feb 22, 6:15 pm UTC