Matt's Picks (3 Live)
The Bucs start a West Coast trip tonight. Arizona has lost four straight but those were all away. The club is 9-6 at home. Eduardo Rodriguez is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA at home this season. Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler is a touted prospect but has had some major bouts of wildness in his rookie campaign and the team has lost four of the past five he has taken the mound. As you would expect for a young guy, his away splits (0-1, 5.93 ERA) are quite a bit worse.
This is high (at least one book has under -200), but I simply won't play +1.5 for exactly what happened last night in Ducks-Golden Knights Game 1: A tie game with five minutes left ended as a two-goal result due to an empty-netter. So why not -1.5? Because then I'm toast in overtime. The Wild clearly missed the injured Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin in Game 1, and neither will play tonight. Colorado hasn't lost in the postseason yet, although I'd expect Minny to get at least one game back home. On home ice, +1.5 is a different story. The Avs might get back blueliner Josh Manson from injury tonight.
Don't know this is my favorite play ever, but my Michigan peeps deserve some positive news after the Tarik Skubal injury (and the Wings missing the playoffs again). I think the Cavs have the better roster and may win the series, but they looked pretty awful on the road in Round 1 vs. Toronto. James Harden especially was bad in those road games. Dude just can't rise to the occasion in the playoffs apparently. The Pistons seemed to find their mojo in the final three vs. Orlando. The model loves Detroit.
This was not on my radar even with how well the Rays are playing and how strong Drew Rasmussen has been on the mound because Toronto pitcher Kevin Gausman has been quite good too. But Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is taking a seat for the Jays for the first time this season, so that's worth a half-unit. He hasn't hit for much power yet but is among league leaders with a .331 batting average. The totals were all too low ...
Mets-Rockies was postponed to no shock, so will sub in this play. I worry a bit about the Tigers being flat for a while with the Tarik Skubal news. But the D has Framber Valdez on the hill here, and this is exactly the kind of spot why he got big FA money. The team needs a good outing just for its collective psyche. Boston most likely will not have its top two relievers available in closer Aroldis Chapman (who has been unhittable) and setup man Garrett Whitlock as each has pitched the past two games with no day off. Primary starting pitcher Brayan Bello is 1-4 with a 9.12 ERA.
Good injury news for Arsenal entering the UCL second leg at home on Tuesday -- it's even on aggregate -- as captain Martin Ødegaard and forward Kai Havertz are available to play. Ødegaard was limited to 57 minutes of last week's 1-1 first-leg draw, but Havertz didn't go. Arsenal has lost only one of its past 15 home matches in European competition against Spanish clubs. Feels like Atleti blew the chance to lead by at least a goal following the first leg as they did largely control the action in Madrid. Arsenal is looking to reach its first final in the competition in 20 years, having never previously won it.
It's difficult beating a good pitcher in back-to-back outings. The White Sox did get to Angels ace Jose Soriano last time out on the South Side but I rather doubt they are good enough to do it again tonight in Anaheim. Although, Chicago pitcher Davis Martin has been shockingly good too at 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA. He ain't that good and Martin's road splits, while very strong, are significantly worse than at home.
Anaheim won all three regular-season meetings by the same score of 4-3, but the Ducks didn't face current Knights No. 1 goalie Carter Hart in any of those -- or have they faced Vegas since John Tortorella took over as head coach. Completely different club since then. Could be a bit of an Anaheim trap spot, too, after the upset of Edmonton in Round 1. This is new territory for most of the Ducks.
You know, I understand this number on the surface but getting one of the majors' best offensive teams at home for plus-money at +1.5 is a have-to play (half). Loses, fine. Still the right play. The Dodgers haven't really looked that Dodger-ish of late anyways, although the pitching matchup Monday clearly favors them with Yoshinobu Yamamoto opposed by essentially an opener/bullpen day. Still, every Dodgers opener in a visiting park is like that team's World Series.
Boston rookie Payton Tolle has made two starts this year and went six innings in one but only 4.2 in the other because he was scuffling a bit with wildness. But Tolle is a top prospect for a reason and the Tigers have never seen him. Doesn't really look like very good scoring weather in Detroit tonight so if Tolle can keep his control he should be given every chance to earn his first big-league win. Our model has him at 5.5 innings. The Sox bullpen is a bit taxed so they could use some length from Tolle.
One reason why I prefer the Premier League to all others is simply I can, you know, understand what they are saying. I can go read the BBC or Premier League site, etc. Other leagues I'm basically at the mercy of Google translate. You have no idea the spam I get now having gone to all these German/Spanish/Italian/French sites. Think I accidentally bought some paella or a Volkswagen or something (I'd be cool with the paella). Believe City wins here -- Everton hasn't won in the series since 2017 -- but a very fair price to just lose by a goal for the hosts. It's Man City's first-ever visit to Everton's new home of Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What's the smart play? Probably Wild +1.5, but I fear the Nathan MacKinnon empty-netter and the two-goal Minnesota loss -- goalies are getting pulled with like 6 minutes left these days whereas usually in the final minute or so in the regular season. NHL playoffs are tough, man, not getting the +1/-1 or a total that I so prefer. Why not playing much of late. So I'll just have to eat this number and bump up the wager a bit. Top-line Minny forward Joel Eriksson Ek is in some doubt.