Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Merrill Kelly has average numbers at Coors Field. ...
Matt's Past Picks
Was thinking of taking the rest of the weekend off because I am slumping. But this happens; to my recollection, there are about three stretches in a given MLB season that last a few weeks where there are bonkers results -- we are definitely in that mix currently. Win here and I'm out. Quick aside, I could not respect Shohei Ohtani more for waving off his bench last night. Hard not to like that guy Dodgers fan or not. The Orioles are playing better, but Zach Eflin has a 5.18 road ERA and a decent number of Yankees have good splits off him, although Aaron Judge is not one. I like that NYY blew a late lead (what I'm talking about) and lost last night.
If given the option, I would play -1 on most MLB games over -150ish. This is below that number, but I'm just so happy to have the offering that I'll go ahead and risk the push. San Francisco starter Hayden Birdsong has a 1.78 ERA at home. And we of course get some Rafael Devers payback fun today.
Prepared to lose this (only gonna sprinkle a little) because the Snakes are in Denver, but don't know that I've seen a cheaper price on Under 1.5 hits ever. Granted, I was in diapers or not alive when the likes of Rod Carew, George Brett or Tony Gwynn were chasing .400 ... and also pretty sure O/U 1.5 props didn't exist then. But you get the point. Ketel Marte is batting .289 on the season and is 8-for-23 career off Rox starter Austin Gomber. So I get it. Still playing something. It's not easy to get two hits. Sometimes I go an entire RBI Baseball game without allowing two hits, but I do have a wicked curve in that game.
It will be warm in the Twin Cities -- I remember Midwest summers; they lasted about 4 days -- but otherwise it appears not great hitting weather with winds in a fair amount from right field at Target Field. The MLB weather site I go to first says "very poor" forecast for hitting but also has an ad for Enron on it, so not sure whether to trust. The forecast might be from June 20, 2001. It looks to be an excellent pitching matchup between fire-balling Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski (five scoreless in MLB debut) and Twins ace Joe Ryan (2.93 ERA). I will look at 5 as I tend to think that at worst pushes. This will likely all depend on Misiorowski.
The White Sox were swept in a home doubleheader on Thursday. They have lost eight in a row, and the bullpen, not that it's any good, is wrecked after Thursday. Today's starting pitcher, Davis Martin, is 1-5 with a 4.62 ERA away. The Jays were pummeled at home yesterday by Arizona but at least reset the bullpen. This ML would be well over -200 if not for Jays journeyman Spencer Turnbull (1-0, 2.08 ERA) on the mound. He probably only is out there three innings or so. Toronto is 10 games over .500 at home and Chicago 7-31 on the road. Would really like -1 here too.
Playing just a little here as I always like to have an opinion on a Cubs home Friday matinee if possible -- I can hear the Old Style theme song in my dome thinking about a beer-filled sunny bleacher day at Wrigley Field; and Old Style is truly horrific, but it sure tastes good in that scenario. I do have a bit of a man-crush on Seattle starter George Kirby so can't say I love this. But with the winds blowing out today, that would sure appear to favor the much better offensive team in the Cubs. Pitcher Matt Boyd is 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA at home.
If Tyrese Haliburton plays 40+ minutes on Thursday for Indiana, this probably won't win. But if he's limited at all with the calf injury, much less somehow doesn't play, then TJ McConnell would easily be the No. 1 beneficiary. He played arguably his best game of the playoffs in Game 5 as well (22 PA). Our model has McConnell at 16.2 PA for what is likely Indiana's season finale.
I wanted to go into Witness Protection after Wednesday. Holy Moly Batman was that ugly. Even some teams I didn't play that I nearly did also lost. Hopefully only such day of season. We are into the weird Bermuda Triangle stretch where guys are looking toward the break. As bad as things have been for the Yanks of late, I expect a massive bounce-back today. The Bombers crush lefties and face one in Tyler Anderson, he of the 6.31 road ERA and 9.00 ERA this month overall. No Angels have very good splits off New York's Carlos Rodon (8-5, 3.01 ERA).
I believe the Nats are playing for Manager Dave Martinez's job today. He's probably gone after the season regardless, but if they lose an 11th straight game and third in a row at home to historically bad Colorado, then he should be fired as should the entire front office, the ball boys and the people who sell programs (they still have those?). Rox starter German Marquez has an ERA near 8.00 on the road. His team hasn't won four straight games since May 2024. Arguably Colorado's three best hitters in Hunter Goodwin, Thairo Estrada and Ryan McMahon are sitting. It's almost as if the Rox are getting a little cocky today ...
Standalone game so we gotta play a little something. Don't love fading Garrett Crochet, but we can still cash with him dominating. That Boston lineup today leaves an awful lot to be desired, that's for sure. The Sox have only scored two runs in two games since Rafael Devers was traded. Seattle's Luis Castillo has five quality starts in his past six overall and a 2.35 ERA at home this season. Lower-scoring games (total of 6.5) are obviously more likely to be determined by a single run.
It should be Rafael Devers' debut with the Giants, just a massive lineup upgrade, and it's one of their co-aces on the mound in lefty Robbie Ray on Tuesday. He had a streak of eight straight quality starts end last time out, but we forgive as it happened in Denver. At home, Ray is 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in seven starts. Few Guardians have seen him. Cleveland is 5-13 vs. southpaws.
Outlier number as our other books all have 3.5 or 4s. I was somewhat right fading Boston last night in that I thought the Sox would struggle offensively in their first game without Rafael Devers. And they scored two runs ... and won. Def was not my night with both Seattle and the Yankees blanked at home over a combined 20 innings. Irked. Tonight, the M's Bryan Woo has a 2.53 home ERA. The Sox's Walker Buehler has run very hot and cold. But a pitcher-friendly park.
Well, if this is the end of the hockey season, hopefully you profited by following. I rather wish the Cats were a bit more heavily favored so Oilers +1.5 would be more reasonable for Game 6. Just don't think the champs would blow a chance to clinch on home ice and threw everything open to a Game 7 back in Edmonton. I'm not sure it even matters at this point which shaky netminder the Oilers start on Tuesday. Meantime, Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky has 12 wins in potential series-clinching games career, second most among active goalies.