Matt's Picks (4 Live)
It's a crossroads bout for both men. ..
Late lineups today for an obvious reason. These teams made a trade today with the Jays sending outfielder Daulton Varsho to the Astros, and he's in the lineup against his former team immediately. Not sure that Toronto closer Louis Varland is available tonight; he wasn't traded but threw 30 pitches Sunday. Former closer Jeff Hoffman was traded today, so that unit is thin tonight. Houston's Josh Hader wasn't needed Sunday so he'll be good to go. Astros starter Cristian Javier has been quite hit or miss in an injury-plagued season but threw five shutout innings last time out.
Philly pitcher Aaron Nola is having a very down season, but this is about the Nationals -- who will use a bullpen game Monday -- telling their locker room we aren't pushing for the playoffs on Sunday by trading infielder Luis Garcia to the Yankees. Garcia is having a huge year, leading the National League in slugging percentage (.560) and batting .283 with 23 home runs, 76 RBI and an .873 OPS. Obviously significantly weakens a Washington lineup that not long ago traded another infielder having a career year in Curtis Mead. Maybe CJ Abrams goes Monday, and this number would really be value. As it is, Washington has lost five straight. The Phils will only be adding ahead of the deadline.
If this weren't Sunday Night Baseball, not sure I do it but the Dodgers sure owe us from this weekend. I was furious when saw last night's starting lineup and no Mookie Betts or Kyle Tucker when both were healthy; frankly I wasn't surprised they lost. But I do find it hard to imagine L.A. being swept at home by a possible World Series opponent and on the same day the team got Tarik Skubal. So, yeah, this is largely an intangibles bet -- and all the healthy Dodgers regulars are in there. Natural flat spot for the Sox as they have won the series and it's the end of a West Coast trip. Good spot for -1 to bring down if you have available.
Clubs going in opposite directions with Houston having won five straight to take over the AL West lead and Texas having dropped four in a row. The Rangers are also four games under .500 away. Kumar Rocker is 0-2 this year vs. the Astros with a 9.28 ERA and .279 OBA in two starts spanning 10.2 innings. On the other side, Peter Lambert just had a 1.88 ERA in five July starts and is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA vs. Texas -- but the Rangers are hitting only .143 off him. Josh Hader pitched Saturday but only a handful of throws so he should be available to close if needed.
Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller has gone at least five full innings in six of his past seven, and his road and day splits are both better than home/night in 2026. He also has fared well vs. the Reds this season at 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two outings, going at least six in both. Curious why this is being offered honestly, maybe Keller is on a pitch count I'm not aware of. Weather is not all that hitter-friendly today in Cincy and the model has Keller at 5.9 innings.
Actually thought about driving up to see this game but just too dang lazy. Well, I might have if the Rays played somewhere fun like Wrigleyville or the Battery in Atlanta and not in an abandoned Men's Wearhouse in sleepy St. Pete. Drew Rasmussen comes off his best start of the season for Tampa Bay, while Sox rookie Noah Schultz (he will follow an opener -- a position the Rays essentially invented) has a 7.03 road ERA. The Rays kill lefties like him at 22-10.
I don't have many life "mantras," but the Dodgers not losing back-to-back home games might be one. Great win by Boston on Friday night, no doubt. Little bit different going from facing L.A.'s Cole Irvin, who sells Skechers in the offseason and was Friday's primary pitcher (wish I had known that as it wasn't supposed to be him), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who goes Saturday. Double-Y is definitely not in the Al Bundy shoe-selling category. Likely that Sox All-Star Willson Contreras sits after taking a pitch to the head last night.
Seattle wrecked Friday's parlay of the day -- blowing a late 2-1 lead, so that hurt -- but I feel pretty good coming back to the Mariners with Logan Gilbert (8-3, 3.44 ERA) on Saturday. The one good thing from that Minnesota rally was the Twins using all their high leverage relievers. And Saturday starter Connor Prielipp is 0-3 with a 6.56 ERA away.
It's the Cubs in a standalone Friday matinee, and you don't know day drinking unless you have been to Wrigley for one of these Ferris Buehler specials. Your Saturday headache will be epic. I woke up in Gary, Ind., once after one in the 2000s. No one should ever wake up in Gary, Ind. So I have to have some opinion here. Not a huge one, but Shota Imanaga has been quite good of late with a 1.19 ERA this month (checking .. yep still July for one more day).
Thanks to my dawg Doro in Discord for the heads up that former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize has been scratched for the Tigers. This will rise now. Not crazily so but it will. That means Mize is an absolute goner via trade (hopefully to White Sox or Cubs). And so is Tarik Skubal now. You don't think this kinda stuff reverberates around the clubhouse? Not every team is the Indians of Major League where you strip off pieces of the hot owner (Tigers owner Chris Ilitch is decidedly not Rachel Phelps) per victory and win to spite them. It's mail it in time for the D. Bummer for all my Michigan peeps.
Why not take the Dodgers at a short moneyline price? Because it's so rare to even get them +1.5 at home that I'm jumping like Beefaroni is buy one, get two free. I actually went to play L.A. moneyline, I won't lie, and saw this +1.5 straggler among our books. Yes, I'm that OCD to pay the 70 cents for insurance. I do reserve the right to call this off if Shohei Ohtani is not in the lineup, but by all accounts he will be.
Sometimes the books default to a number because of the ballpark, and then they come back to earth. This should not be 11.5 with two meh offensive teams and not terrible starting pitchers. And it's actually sorta pitching weather in Denver, which is like saying that tuna fish sandwiches don't stink up the whole dang house. Yeah, I'm jaded. The missus eats that garbage nearly every day with malt vinegar on it. It's like living with a homeless and stinky Cat in the Hat.
I don't have a super-strong opinion on this -- half unit -- but Paul Skenes vs. Hunter Greene. That has my attention, so I will probably watch some of this. Shoot, 12 months ago this was the NL Central if not entire NL pitching matchup to watch going forward. Now they are both eating Jacob Misiorowski's dust. So much can change in a year. Greene has an excuse, he's back from injury. This is why I don't believe you can count on pitchers. Hope but not count on. Theo Epstein nailed it with the 2016 Cubs. Get the bats, figure out the rest later. Arms fail as the Cubs are well aware of in 2026-- the law firm of Horton, Steele & Brown sadly.
I might invoke the SL Curse here with a couple of other experts on LA. But as far as I knew, Captain America was in the past and he's apparently back now so rules are meant to be broken. I have no hammer/shield, but a Golden Corral gift rewards card. Feel like that might have some trade value on Tatooine. Yeah, I'm mixing metaphors. I have written about Seattle's Bryan "Woo-woo-woo" so many times in the newsletter and whatnot that you should know this by now: He's just cosmically bad on the road (1-7, 6.52 ERA) and yet utterly dominant in Seattle. This is not in Seattle.
Was on the fence with this one when it appeared Nate Eovaldi was starting for Texas but now Cole Winn will open and it will be a bullpen day. Seventh straight game without a day off for the Rangers, who have a much more important rivalry series opening tomorrow night in Houston. Meanwhile, Rays starter Shane McClanahan is 7-1 with a 1.88 ERA at the Trop.