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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past four college basketball seasons, Matt is up $887. He went 103-89-2 (plus $665) in the 2023 college football season and 121-93-2 (plus $589) in the 2023 NFL season. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@jordanpaytonsn1
LAST 48 NFL ML PICKS
+1738
RECORD: 36-12-0
+1738
36-12 IN LAST 48 NFL ML PICKS

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Matt's Picks (6 Live)

Jan 19 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Washington
@ Detroit
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
Analysis:

Is the total too high in Commanders-Lions? ...

Pick Made: Jan 14, 7:02 pm UTC on Caesars
Jan 19 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Washington
@ Detroit
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit0.5
+468
46-29 in Last 75 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

How will David Montgomery fare vs. the Commanders? ...

Pick Made: Jan 15, 8:48 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jan 19 2025, 2:00 am UTC
League
Cleveland
@ Minnesota
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+795.5
43-27 in Last 70 NBA Picks
+532
15-7 in Last 22 NBA ATS Picks
+185
6-3 in Last 9 MIN ATS Picks
Analysis:

Are the Cavs on upset alert in the Twin Cities? ...

Pick Made: Jan 18, 5:58 pm UTC on FanDuel
Jan 19 2025, 8:00 pm UTC
League
L.A. Rams
@ Philadelphia
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+468
46-29 in Last 75 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

How will Saquon Barkley fare vs. the Rams? ...

Pick Made: Jan 16, 12:59 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jan 19 2025, 8:00 pm UTC
League
L.A. Rams
@ Philadelphia
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit2.0
+1738
36-12 in Last 48 NFL ML Picks
+640
10-2 in Last 12 PHI ML Picks
Analysis:

Are the Eagles undervalued? ...

Pick Made: Jan 18, 8:23 am UTC on Sugar House
Jan 20 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
New York Rangers
@ Montreal Canadiens
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+1921
39-16-1 in Last 56 NHL Picks
+253
7-3 in Last 10 NHL O/U Picks
+431.5
19-11 in Last 30 MON O/U Picks
Analysis:

Jakub Dobes has been sensational for Montreal. ...

Pick Made: Jan 18, 11:16 pm UTC on DraftKings

Matt's Past Picks

Jan 19 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Pittsburgh Penguins
1
@ Washington Capitals
4
+1921
39-16-1 in Last 56 NHL Picks
+1204
41-22 in Last 63 NHL ML Picks
+224
29-19 in Last 48 PIT ML Picks
Analysis:

I believe this is light a good 25 cents or so and that's why not playing -1. Well, I believe it's light if the Penguins' projected goaltender is correct in rookie Joel Blomqvist, who is 3-5-0 with a 3.60 GAA. It's the second of a B2B so I don't think the Pens have much choice in the matter as they tried to release former No. 1 Tristan Jarry but no one wanted him. Top blueliner Kris Letang is out. Washington's Logan Thompson might win the Vezina at 20-2-3 with a 2.13 GAA and .924 SV.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 5:35 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 19 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Columbus Blue Jackets
0
@ New York Rangers
1
+1921
39-16-1 in Last 56 NHL Picks
+1487
21-5-1 in Last 27 NHL ATS Picks
+1307.5
22-7-1 in Last 30 CLB ATS Picks
Analysis:

If I had a mistress (please God don't let the missus read this), her name would be Columbus. Only as I doubt any female is named Blue Jackets. Or probably Columbus, but my point is the team has probably been my most profitable of the season. But at home. People often wonder why I generally only play home teams in any sport. This is why: 16-5-3 on home ice and 6-12-3 away. When a team gets down early on the road, it tends to fold. This may push but can't tell you how much I love -1 over -1.5 -- obviously knew it was out there and have been doing it for years but now that can on here. 60-minute line is fine ...

Pick Made: Jan 18, 4:57 pm UTC on Sugar House
Jan 18 2025, 9:00 pm UTC
League
Midshipmen
69
@ Bison
73
+879
51-27 in Last 78 NCAAB Picks
+455
39-21 in Last 60 NCAAB ML Picks
+605
8-1 in Last 9 NAVY ML Picks
Analysis:

Well, shoot. I was hoping to be done for today with Georgia covering and then presumably Brown winning as a sizable favorite but it appears Brown will not comply and I don't feel like being underwater today so we'll play this on Alumni Day at Bucknell. The Bison easily swept the season series last year. In league play this season, Bucknell is 3-0 at home and 0-2 on the road.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 8:34 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 18 2025, 7:00 pm UTC
League
Crimson
80
@ Bears
67
+879
51-27 in Last 78 NCAAB Picks
+455
39-21 in Last 60 NCAAB ML Picks
Analysis:

After the Furman debacle earlier this week, I plan to cap my plays on here in college hoops at -200 unless I am just crazy confident. Believe parlay options are coming down the road. So what can Brown do for me? Simply win. At least via the models, this is a good 50 cents light. Harvard used to own the Ivy League in men's hoops but those days are gone. On top of obviously being at home, Brown should have the best player on the court in Kino Lilly Jr., who today might become only the third player in Ivy League history with 300 career three-pointers made.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 5:53 pm UTC on Bet365NewJersey
Jan 18 2025, 6:00 pm UTC
League
Tigers
70
@ Bulldogs
68
+879
51-27 in Last 78 NCAAB Picks
+210
4-1 in Last 5 NCAAB ATS Picks
+300
3-0 in Last 3 UGA ATS Picks
Analysis:

It's the biggest basketball game at Georgia in years ... maybe since Dominque's days. Auburn All-American and former Player of the Year favorite Johni Broome remains out. The Tigers blew the doors off No. 15 Mississippi State on Tuesday in their first game without him, but that was at home. Remember that Office episode at the beginning where they are waiting for that balloon to fall? Not one of the better episodes (post-Michael Scott they mostly were not good) but that's how I feel like Auburn is here. Played awesome first game without Broome but I believe it catches up to them today on the road. Balloon falls/the VHS thing hits the corner.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 7:14 am UTC on FanDuel
Jan 18 2025, 3:00 am UTC
League
Falcons
65
@ Bulldogs
74
+879
51-27 in Last 78 NCAAB Picks
+455
39-21 in Last 60 NCAAB ML Picks
+400
4-0 in Last 4 AF ML Picks
Analysis:

This feels a good 30 cents light for the Mountain West Toilet Bowl -- both are 0-6 in league play, but FSU has played a much tougher slate. KenPom ranks Fresno 32 spots higher. Air Force really hasn't come close to a win since early December, while FSU at least pushed a good Nevada team to OT last time out and is on extra rest. The Bulldogs are one of three teams in the MW to have four players in double figures scoring-wise: Zaon Collins (12.9), Alex Crawford (11.0), Jalen Weaver (10.9), Mykell Robinson (10.8).

Pick Made: Jan 17, 4:27 am UTC on FanDuel
Jan 18 2025, 2:30 am UTC
League
Memphis
140
@ San Antonio
112
+795.5
43-27 in Last 70 NBA Picks
+329.5
8-4 in Last 12 NBA ML Picks
+1317.5
26-8 in Last 34 SA ML Picks
Analysis:

I believe Memphis is clearly superior but it's so rare for a club to sweep one of these baseball-type series on the road -- the Grizz won by 14 in San Antonio on Wednesday. Maybe we get lucky tonight and Ja Morant doesn't play as he's questionable. It is the end of a four-game trip so a possible letdown spot as it is for Memphis.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 1:43 pm UTC on FanDuel
Jan 18 2025, 1:30 am UTC
League
Oklahoma City
98
@ Dallas
106
+795.5
43-27 in Last 70 NBA Picks
+532
15-7 in Last 22 NBA ATS Picks
+605.5
14-8 in Last 22 DAL ATS Picks
Analysis:

This is the new number with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander downgraded to questionable. Generally when guys are downgraded this late, they are out. I was actually looking at Dallas regardless as this felt like a trap game for OKC anyways. So sometimes it's kinda karma "when" you push the button because if I had three minutes ago, I would have gotten +8.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 12:24 am UTC on DraftKings
Jan 18 2025, 12:30 am UTC
League
Minnesota
116
@ New York
99
+460.5
32-18 in Last 50 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

When the Knicks' Karl-Anthony Towns had a homecoming game in the Twin Cities a while back, KAT put up massive numbers. The Wolves' Julius Randle isn't in his class but it's a homecoming for him in New York from that trade and I tend to think Randle will be jacking up a few more shot attempts than normal -- and he averages 19.5 PPG. There may be a few more shots to go around with the other former Knick in that trade, Donte DiVincenzo, ruled out.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 3:42 pm UTC on BetMGM
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