

Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past five NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,931 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. He also has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons. In the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Matt's Picks
6 Live PicksAre the Guardians really going to lose? ...


Only this price for Over -170? ...
Can the Cards get to 17 vs. Seattle? ...
Tulsa will be starting its backup QB. ...
Can the Vikings score 20 in Chicago? ...
Is USC in a trap on Saturday? ...
Will spin today's Real Betis win into Friday's La Liga match. Espanyol is about mid-table with two wins and a draw in six league matches, while Roberto Fernández has been stellar with six goals -- one more than his team has given up. Elche is last in the table with just two points and a minus-8 goal differential. It has been scored upon in each match and allowed a league-high 16 goals. The hosts are unbeaten in the past six meetings; they drew at Elche, 2-2, in the last in March. Sadly, DNB is too expensive.
My favorite Black Mirror episode is probably "San Junipero" because I miss the 80s. Jean jackets. Thompson Twins. Galaga. I don't know why, but AS Monaco makes me think of the 80s. Perhaps that old-school Atari soccer or racing game? (Atari rocked). This honestly seems a pretty reasonable DNB number considering the hosts are atop the Ligue 1 table with 10 points and Lens is mid-near bottom with four points. Some of these Euro soccer sites are crazy with XGP and other numbers I really don't understand. I am old school with the eye test, although I am not stupid and the analytics generally agree. Models about 75% not a loss. And in DNB, that's all I want is a massive majority to not.
If the Lions have any shot tonight, and I think they do, then they surely have to get to at least 24. The last time the teams played, even 44 wouldn't have been enough to beat the Bills. Our model has Detroit with 27 points. Buffalo's defense left much to be desired last week in Houston. All of our other books have this listed 24.5 so right in the sweet spot would be swell.
Led by Rodrigo Riquelme's two goals, Real Betis is near the top of the La Liga table with four wins and a loss. It is unbeaten at home, including a win over Real Madrid. Pretty healthy as well, while Getafe has some injury concerns and it is near bottom table with just five points and only three goals scored -- all on home pitch. The visitors have taken only two of the past 11 in the series and per usual I think only a draw gets us.
I do so well with alt numbers it seems, and this is clearly one for the F5 total. Not sure I've seen a 6.5 F5 outside of Sacramento or Denver this year, so on principle have to do it. Two meh primary pitchers, but both sides are resting a big bat or two -- no Mookie Betts or Will Smith for the Dodgers.
I agree wholeheartedly with No. 1 MLB expert Eric Cohen -- stinks for you Eric with my rough run of late on site -- that Arizona can't lose tonight at home after falling in extras last night to the Fish. The good news for the Snakes is that Miami's bullpen is shredded after that and having put closer Pete Fairbanks on the IL ahead of the game. Arizona's Merrill Kelly is having a down year (9-13, 4.97 ERA) but has been a big-game pitcher in the past and has looked much better in his past three. With the home team off on Thursday, just about every arm is available behind Kelly as you gotta have this to stay within shouting distance of the Padres.
NWSL lines can vary widely as one of our books has this nearly -200, so you want to shop around if tailing. Hey, it's not MLB so I might actually win. The Summit have fared quite well as an expansion team with 31 points and a plus-7 goal differential. They are unbeaten in three and have totaled a whopping 12 goals. Denver also is unbeaten in three straight at home. Bay City is 15th in the table and 1-7-1 in its past nine. The squad has held a lead in just two of those nine and for a total of less than nine game minutes. It did win the season opener, 2-1, over Denver, but the Summit were down to 10 at the 27-minute mark.
I haven't played a F5 in a while but this is an outlier number at our books and you can see it's a bit juiced. Houston hits only .238 off southpaws and faces a decent one in KC's Daniel Lynch (5-5, 3.52 ERA). No Astros batters have done anything off him career. Counterpart Cristian Javier is rounding into form after a late start to 2026 off TJS. In his last two starts against much better offenses in the D-backs and Phillies, he has held them to a combined two runs on four hits in 11.0 innings for a 1.64 ERA. No Royals have done much off him career. Our model has 8.3 total runs scored, so 5.5 should hit in that ballpark scenario.
Probably does end in a draw but Deportivo is unbeaten in its return to the top flight in Spain (two wins, three draws). Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been awesome with five goals. It's the side's first meeting with Sevilla since 2018. Starting Sevilla defender Arouna Sangante is out, while the hosts are fully healthy. No player for the visitors has more than one goal. Deportivo have not beaten Sevilla in the league since October 2009 but hopefully that changes today. I thought about Under 2.5 but such a good DNB price.
