Matt's Picks (4 Live)
Former NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has made 13 starts this year and gone at least six in 10 of them. His home and day splits are better than the opposites. When Alcantara pitched in St. Pete on May 16 he threw six innings, allowing only an unearned run. I also have U18.5 available and that's tempting but Sandy has gone at least seven innings a few times so that scared me off. If he's not getting hit hard or wild, then six seems likely. The model has him at 6.2 innings. After using seven total pitchers on Saturday, the Marlins could use some length from Alcantara. Rays speedster and usual leadoff hitter Chandler Simpson is out again.
The Braves were one of my biggest plays of the season yesterday and came through easily and they are quite cheaply priced yet again. Like many rookie pitchers, Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler (2-6, 4.89 ERA) has been wildly inconsistent The team is 3-9 in his 12 starts. Also the end of a trip for Pittsburgh. One of its better hitters in Brandon Lowe (15 HR, 41 RBI) may sit after leaving Saturday's loss injured. Atlanta's Bryce Elder is 3-1 with a 2.34 ERA at home and has a 0.48 ERA this year in all day starts.
This is so crazily priced on Mark Jankowski, let's go ahead and throw a bit down. The Hurricanes' winger did find the net in Game 2 but only has five points in these playoffs so I'm certainly not pre-spending my winnings or anything. But all we need is a secondary assist and Carolina has scored four times in both games.
I'm taking my pulse to make sure I'm not on something accidentally -- I did go to an Alice in Wonderland thing last night with the missus (it was terrible) and that cookie tasted tainted -- but wow the Braves are home dogs with Spencer Strider on the mound? And it's not like against the Dodgers? I honestly don't get this. Atlanta has the best record in baseball and not facing Paul Skenes. Pittsburgh is solid and Braxton Ashcraft has been good but come on. I'm not the type to take a -110-ish when I think the wrong team is favored. I take the +1.5 gift and I really don't care what it costs (within reason).
I'm starting to get PO'd at the Cubs. They just look flatlined (the Kevin Bacon/Julia Roberts version, not the terrible remake -- not that the original was all that great). Hey Craig Counsell, earn your dang money. But, I do like to play good teams at home the day after getting embarrassed. And the Cubbies sure were on Friday -- that stung. Maybe they just aren't that good, but I'm holding out hope that's not true. And arguably their best starting pitcher of late, Ben Brown, goes Saturday. The Giants hung 18 on Friday. They might not score 18 in the next five games combined. Winds apparently blowing in.
Not that Corey Seager is all that great these days (I thought he would be a superstar), but he has been activated off the IL for Texas. I guess I get why the Rangers are home dogs as Cleveland's Parker Messick -- guarantee you his parents watched "Parker Can't Lose" back in the day (I may have checked in a few times) -- is a top AL Rookie of the Year candidate. But the Rangers' Kumar Rocker was a much more touted prospect and has a 2.95 home ERA. I don't know if there has ever been an MLB game where I care less who wins. Just be by a run. Combined, they have played 37 one-run games. Our model has Texas winning.
Seattle is an average road team and playing in the Eastern Time Zone for the first time in 2026. I think that matters a little. Pitcher Bryan Woo is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA away. Detroit has been a massive disappointment, no doubt, as has lefty Framber Valdez (2-4, 4.39 ERA). Why teams give $40-plus million to a starting pitcher who goes out there once every five days, I will never understand. If I'm ever an MLB owner (yeah right), that's an edict from Day 1: No long-term deals to pitchers. Hey, it works for the Rays. But I only need a one-run loss here. Seattle is dead last in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws at .620.
It is 5:22 a.m. Eastern and I just woke up -- early for me but I'm getting old. Probably start eating a ribeye and baked potato at around 4 p.m. at the early bird dinner rush (no, I don't want applesauce; no one does). What is more fun than waking up to wins when you assumed a loss? Carolina! Let's carry that momentum into Friday and the Jays are different at home. And not many pitchers with better stuff in the Show than rookie Trey Yesavage (2-2, 2.19 ERA). Wouldn't go betting Over whatever outs total as he's still on a bit of pitch count but usually goes at least five strong. Yesavage allowed a run over five last Saturday in a ND in Baltimore.
The southpaw Chelsea Chandler is two years younger and has a three-inch reach edge on Priscila Cachoeira for Saturday's bout from Vegas. The underdog is the bigger hitter but also gets hit a lot: Cachoeira absorbs a whopping 7.60 significant strikes per minute for a significant strikes differential of -3.17. Chandler has a differential there of –0.89 but is the far superior grappler.
After another dominating performance on the mound and the plate Wednesday in a blowout win, Shohei Ohtani will not play tonight in the series finale in the desert. His bat has really come alive on an eight-game hitting streak, so that will be missed. Arizona pitcher Ryne Nelson has had three straight quality starts at home. L.A. southpaw Justin Wrobleski (7-2, 2.87 ERA) has been great, but the Snakes are 9-4 vs. lefties with the No. 2 OPS in the majors against them. A one-run loss works just fine.
The Giants were 1-0 winners on Wednesday but before the game put top setup man Matt Gage on the IL and then used their closer, Keaton Winn, for 1.2 innings so he may not be available Thursday. Starter Adrian Houser is 2-5 with a 5.59 ERA. Milwaukee used essentially only two long relievers in Wednesday's loss so the all the high-leverage relievers are good to go for this one behind Coleman Crow. The Brew Crew are 3-0 in the rookie's three starts even if he hasn't gotten a decision yet.
If you would have told me that Carolina was going to score the first two goals of Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final at home, I would have bet my mortgage that the Hurricanes would have beaten Vegas. Thankfully, the banks weren't open after that happened in the opener because then the Canes largely collapsed in a 5-4 loss. Are they really going to lose a second straight at home Thursday? Their last back-to-back losses in Raleigh were at the start of the New Year, and their last B2B losses overall were in mid-January. The Knights got their split.