Mike's Picks (2 Live)
The Cavaliers didn’t need to play Jarrett Allen huge minutes in the previous round because the Raptors didn’t have a ton of size at center. That’s certainly not the case with the Pistons, who have Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart and Paul Reed. Allen missed one game against the Pistons this season and left another early because of injury. In the two full games that he played against them, he combined for 34 and 27 points and rebounds. I expect him to play around 30 minutes, which would put him in a favorable position to hit this over.
Tobias Harris scored 30 points in the Pistons’ Game 7 win over the Magic. It was the cherry on top of an excellent series that saw him average 21.6 points. After averaging 28 minutes and 10.5 shot attempts per game during the regular season, he has averaged 35 minutes and 17.3 shot attempts in the playoffs. As the clear second best scoring option behind Cade Cunningham, Harris could approach 20 points again.
OG Anunoby averaged 21.5 points and 8.7 rebounds in the first round against the Hawks. He shot 61.1% from the field and 56.7% from behind the arc. He also logged 36 minutes a night and should continue to play a lot as the Knicks take on the 76ers. In three regular season meetings with them, he finished with at least 25 combined points and rebounds two times. I’m playing this over again.
Karl-Anthony Towns had two triple-doubles in the first round against the Hawks. In five of the games, he finished with at least four assists. Dating back to the regular season, he has averaged 6.2 assists over his last 10 games. He’ll need to avoid foul trouble guarding Joel Embiid, but if he does, he could blow past this over.
Ausar Thompson has grabbed at least eight rebounds in five of the six games in this series. The one time he didn’t, he finished with seven boards over just 25 minutes in Game 1. Since then, he has averaged 34 minutes a game. He is one of the Pistons best defenders, so despite his offensive shortcomings, he should play a ton again as the team tries to advance to the second round. There is plenty of juice here, but the over is still appealing.
Tobias Harris came into Game 6 with an ankle injury. It didn’t seem to limit him as he finished with 22 points and 10 rebounds. That was his fourth straight game with at least 20 points. Jalen Duren has disappeared in this series, which has left Harris to average 35 minutes and 17.2 shot attempts per game. There should be no shortage of minutes and shot attempts for him in this crucial Game 7, so take this over.
Despite facing one of the best defenses in the league, Paul George is shooting 48.7% from the field in this series. That includes him shooting 54.3% from three. The result was him scoring at least 16 points in all six games. Another stat you like to see is that he has averaged 36 minutes a game. The Celtics can’t focus on slowing him down with Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid also on the floor, so with George likely to get plenty of quality shot attempts, I like this over.
Jabari Smith Jr. averaged a career-high 2.3 three-pointers per game during the regular season. During this series, he has made at least three triples in four of the five games. The only time he didn’t was in Game 4, when he went 2-for-10 from deep. He is averaging 42 minutes a game against the Lakers, leaving him to attempt a total of 45 three-pointers. Combine that with him shooting 37.1% from behind the arc at home this season and he is in a favorable position to make at least three three-pointers again.
Collin Murray-Boyles didn’t do much in the first half of Game 5, but still finished with eight points and five rebounds over 25 minutes. For the series, he is averaging 15.2 points and 6.8 rebounds. In the two home games, he combined for 30 and 25 points and rebounds. Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) is still out, Brandon Ingram (heel) is questionable and it looked like something was bothering Scottie Barnes in the second half of Game 5. Murray-Boyles should play around 25 minutes and take more than the five shots that he attempted Wednesday, so I like this over.
OG Anunoby played a series-low 35 minutes against the Hawks in Game 5 with the Knicks earning a lopsided victory. Still, he finished with 17 points and 10 rebounds. He has stepped up in this series, averaging 20.0 points and 9.0 rebounds. Mikal Bridges has disappeared offensively, and Josh Hart is battling a back injury. The Knicks need Anunoby to take on a leading role again, so I like this over.
After recording a triple-double over just 29 minutes in Game 4, Karl-Anthony Towns racked up six more assists in Game 5. In the series, he has finished with at least four assists in four of the five games. The Hawks have had problems staying with the Knicks on back cuts, which has helped Towns in the passing department. In a game in which Towns should play a lot, he has a favorable opportunity to finish with at least four assists again.
Collin Murray-Boyles only played 20 minutes in Game 1,but finished with 14 points and four rebounds. After the productive performance, the Raptors have given him at least 26 minutes in each of the last three games. During that three-game span, he averaged 18.0 points and 8.3 rebounds. Jakob Poeltl is having a bad series and hasn’t played more than 21 minutes in any of the four games. Murray-Boyles has a path to 25+ minutes again, making the over the way to go here.
The Raptors continue to play without Immanuel Quickley (hamstring), who has been ruled out for the remainder of the first round. He averaged 16.4 points a game this season, so his absence is a big one. With him out, Scottie Barnes has scored at least 21 points in all four games against the Cavaliers. He is taking more than two shots a game compared to his regular season average. He is also averaging 9.3 free throw attempts in the series. With the Raptors trying to pull off the road upset and grab a 3-2 series lead, look for Barnes to continue to have an elevated usage rate.