Mike's Picks (2 Live)
Mike's Past Picks
DeMar DeRozan has scored at least 22 points in eight of his last 14 games. In 11 of those games, he scored at least 20 points, so there were also some near-misses. The Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace in the league, so this is a scoring-friendly matchup. DeRozan has faced them two times already this season and he scored at least 26 points in both games. Look for him to have another strong offensive showing the third time around.
The Knicks have played four straight games without Jalen Brunson, who will be sidelined again Monday. Mikal Bridges had at least eight combined rebounds and assists in each of those games. In total, he averaged 4.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game during that span. When he faced the Heat earlier this month, Bridges had four rebounds and eight assists. When he faced them back in October, he recorded three rebounds and six assists. Give me the over here.
The Pelicans have ruled out Zion Williamson (personal) for this game, leaving Trey Murphy III with added scoring upside. Over the last seven games that Williamson has missed, Murphy scored at least 24 points four times. This is a great spot for him to score in bunches against the Spurs, who just gave up 145 points to the Hornets on Friday. Over their last 10 games, the Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league. Don’t expect them to be able to slow down Murphy.
The Spurs will close out the season with Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox sidelined because of injuries. In the first game without both of them Friday, Castle scored 26 points despite playing just 29 minutes in a lopsided loss to the Hornets. He should play a lot against a Pelicans team that has the worst defensive rating in the league. I’ll happily take this over again.
Andrew Wiggins scored 23 points in a loss to the Celtics on Friday. That marked the sixth time over his last eight games that he has scored at least 20 points. This is a great matchup for him to stay hot in the scoring department because the Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace in the league. The last time he faced them, he scored 24 points while still a member of the Warriors. As one of the leading scorers of the Heat now, Wiggins should have ample opportunities to reach this over.
The Cavaliers will play this game without Donovan Mitchell (groin). Evan Mobley has scored at least 21 points in four of the previous five games that Mitchell has missed. The one time that he didn’t, he just missed the threshold with 20 points. The Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace in the league, which helped Mobley score 25 points against them earlier this season. With added shots likely coming his way because of Mitchell’s absence, Mobley has a favorable opportunity to hit this over.
Donovan Mitchell (groin) has been ruled out for this matchup. The last game that Ty Jerome played without Mitchell, he scored 25 points against the Trail Blazers. Mitchell played the last time these two teams met, but Darius Garland did not. That resulted in Jerome scoring 26 points off the bench. The Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace in the league, so the combination of that and additional shots being available with Mitchell out leaves Jerome with significant scoring upside.
The Spurs announced that De’Aaron Fox (finger) will miss the remainder of the season. He joins Victor Wembanyama (shoulder) on the sidelines, leaving a ton of shots up for grabs. Stephon Castle should play a ton down the stretch and become one of the focal points of the Spurs’ scoring attack. He has already been productive with Wembanyama out, scoring at least 20 points in five of the last game. When he faced the Hornets earlier this season, he scored 33 points over 31 minutes off the bench. Look for him to have another productive evening in the scoring column.
Draymond Green has played well as the Warriors make a push for the playoffs. Over their last seven games, he has averaged 10.3 points, 8.4 rebounds and 7.3 assists. He also averaged 32 minutes, which is an increase from his season average of 29 minutes per game. During that seven-game span, Green recorded at least seven rebounds six times. The last time he faced the Kings, he had eight rebounds over 28 minutes. Look for him to be busy on the boards again.
Cam Thomas played 32 minutes against the Cavaliers on Tuesday, his most since returning from injury. He attempted 22 shots, which he turned into 27 points. While he played fewer than 30 minutes in each of his previous four games, he scored at least 23 points in two of them and took at least 17 shots in all four games. The Bulls have played at the third-fastest pace and they have the sixth-worst defensive rating in the league. The last time he faced them, Thomas scored 32 points over 32 minutes. I think Thomas plays around 30 minutes in this rematch, which gives him a great opportunity to reach this over.
Anthony Edwards has averaged 29.1 points over his last 20 games. He has played the Nuggets twice this season and he scored at least 29 points in both games. This game will be played on the road, where Edwards has averaged 28.6 points per game this season. He is shooting 46.6% from the field on the road, compared to 41.4% at home. Combine all of that with Aaron Gordon (calf) likely being out for the Nuggets and Edwards could blow past this line.
The Suns have been a mess at center this season. Things won’t get any better for them Wednesday with Nick Richards (ankle) doubtful. That will leave Mason Plumlee and Oso Ighodaro to try and slow down Alperen Sengun on the boards. Sengun hauled in 13 rebounds when he faced the Suns in February and has a great opportunity to dominate the glass in this rematch.
Ivica Zubac has scored at least 20 points in four of his last six games. Norman Powell has missed nine of the last 10 games for the Clippers and Zubac scored at least 20 points in six of those nine games. When he faced the Pelicans earlier this season, Zubac scored 20 points. The Pelicans have allowed the second-most points in the paint per game and they have the worst defensive rating in the league, so I like this over for Zubac.