Jalen Williams scored 16 points in Game 6, all of which came in the first half. He was limited to 27 minutes because of the lopsided score, which broke his streak of three straight games in which he scored at least 26 points. During the regular season, Williams shot 50.4% from the field at home, compared to 46.4% on the road. In what should be a close game, look for Williams to bounce back and hit this over.

Tyrese Haliburton continues to play through his calf injury, but he could still be limited for Game 7. When he suffered the injury in Game 5, T.J. McConnell stepped up to score 18 points over 22 minutes off the bench. In Game 6, McConnell scored 12 points over 24 minutes. He has scored at least 10 points in four of the six games against the Thunder. In the other two games, he had eight and nine points. The Pacers will likely ask for more from him again in Game 7, leaving him with a favorable opportunity to hit this over.

Tyrese Haliburton (calf) is questionable for Game 6. I’d be surprised if he sits, but based on how he looked in Game 5, he could be limited. Haliburton missed nine games during the regular season and Bennedict Mathurin played in seven of those games. Of those seven games, Mathurin scored at least 20 points five times. While Mathurin only scored seven points with Haliburton ailing in Game 5, that total could have been higher if he didn’t shoot just 2-for-11 from the field. He shot 48.0% at home this season, so look for him to be more efficient in Game 6.

Jalen Williams dominated Game 5, scoring 40 points over 35 minutes. After getting off to a slow start in the series, he has scored at least 26 points in each of the last three games. He has been aggressive attacking the paint, which resulted in him attempting at least 11 free throws in each of those three games. During the regular season, Williams averaged 22.6 points and 33 minutes per game on the road. He has averaged 35 minutes in the Finals, so I like his chances of hitting this over for Game 6.

Pascal Siakam hasn’t exactly been efficient, shooting 43.6% from the field in the Finals. However, he has scored at least 19 points in three of the four games. One of the keys has been him getting to the foul line more often. He averaged 3.9 free-throw attempts per game during the regular season, but he has averaged 7.3 free-throw attempts in the Finals. Tyrese Haliburton isn’t a high-volume scorer and Myles Turner has gone cold from the field. If the Pacers are going to win Game 5, they need Siakam to score at least 20 points. I think he gets there.

T.J. McConnell provided a huge spark off the bench for the Pacers in Game 3, posting 10 points, five assists and one rebound over 15 minutes. He hasn’t played more than 18 minutes in any of the three games in this series, but he still has finished with at least 14 combined points, rebounds and assists in each game. During the regular season, he averaged 9.1 points, 2.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists over just 18 minutes per game. In the playoffs, he has averaged 8.6 points, 2.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists over 16 minutes per game. Even in limited minutes, I like his chances of hitting this over at home.

The Thunder aren’t the same team on the road. We saw that when they allowed 116 points in a loss to the Pacers in Indiana in Game 3. The Thunder are 4-4 on the road in the playoffs and none of their four wins came by more than six points. They have allowed 100.6 points per game at home in the playoffs, but they have allowed an average of 115.9 points per game on the road. If the Pacers are going to pull off the upset and win the title, they must win Game 4 at home. They know that. I expect them to keep this close enough to cover, even if they don’t win.

Chet Holmgren scored 15 points over 28 minutes in Game 2. It was encouraging to see him play 28 minutes, even with the Thunder resting their starters late in the fourth quarter. He only played 24 minutes in Game 1, which contributed to him scoring just six points. He has averaged 15.8 points per game during the playoffs and he averaged 17.0 points per game on the road during the regular season. I think the Pacers keep this game close at home, so Holmgren could approach 30 minutes. That would give him a favorable opportunity to reach this over.

Myles Turner scored 15 points in Game 1 and 16 points in Game 2 of this series. Turner averaged 16.3 points per game at home this season, compared to 14.8 points per game on the road. He has scored at least 15 points in six of eight home playoff games. Given how the Thunder haven’t been as impressive on the road during the playoffs, this has the potential to be a close game. With Turner likely to approach 30 minutes, I like his chances of scoring at least 14 points.

The Thunder are not a great rebounding team. During the regular season, they ranked 20th in the league in rebounds allowed per game. In the playoffs, they have allowed the most rebounds per game. In two games against them during the regular season, Pascal Siakam had 10 and nine rebounds. In Game 1, he finished with 10 rebounds as the Thunder turned to more small lineups. There should even be times in this game when Siakam is playing center for the Pacers. I’ll pay the juice and take this over.

Game 1 isn’t until Thursday, but I’m not waiting on this. The odds have been getting worse and the line has even moved to 7.5 in some places, so the time to act is now. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.9 assists per game in the playoffs. He has recorded at least seven assists in eight of his last 12 playoff games. During the regular season, he had eight assists in both meetings with the Pacers. With how often he has the ball in his hands and how fast these two teams play, I’ll take this over.

The Thunder have dominated at home throughout the playoffs. However, there could be a rust factor here, considering that they haven’t played in a week. Also, the Pacers are 6-2 on the road in the playoffs. The Thunder thrive off creating turnovers, but the Pacers averaged the fourth-fewest turnovers per game during the regular season. While I think the Thunder win Game 1, I think the Pacers keep things close enough to cover.

Karl-Anthony Towns has battled with foul trouble for much of the Eastern Conference Finals. Still, he has scored at least 24 points in four of the five games. The one game that he didn’t, he scored 20 points despite playing only 28 minutes. The Pacers don’t have anyone who can slow down Towns, so while there is always the risk of foul trouble with him, I still like this over.

Pascal Siakam is averaging 37 minutes per game in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, he has averaged just 4.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists. He has combined for eight or fewer rebounds and assists in three of the four games. The only game he went over this line was when he had 11 combined in Game 1, which went to overtime. During the regular season, the Knicks allowed the second-fewest rebounds per game and the seventh-fewest assists per game in the league. I like Siakam’s chances of hitting this under.

A move to the bench has not been a detriment to Josh Hart. He played 34 minutes in that role in Game 3, producing eight points and 10 rebounds. Over 36 minutes off the bench in Game 4, he had 12 points and 11 rebounds. He has now reached double-digit rebounds in three of four games in this series against the Pacers, who allowed the ninth-most rebounds per game during the regular season. During the regular season, Hart averaged 10.0 rebounds per game at home. He feeds off the energy of the home crowd, so I like his chances of hitting this over.