Mike's Past Picks
CeeDee Lamb has been putting up monster numbers. Over the last seven games, he has recorded at least 116 receiving yards five times. That included a Week 9 meeting against the Eagles in which he caught 11 passes for 191 yards. The Eagles have given up the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league, which leaves Lamb with a favorable opportunity to hit this over.
This is a great matchup for Courtland Sutton. The Chargers’ secondary has continued to struggle, leaving them to allow the second-most passing yards per game in the league. Sutton already enters this matchup playing well, recording at least 61 receiving yards in each of the last three games. As one of the top targets for Russell Wilson, expect Sutton to surpass 60 receiving yards again.
Nikola Jokic is averaging 32.2 points, 12.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists per game at home this season. He has at least 53 combined points, rebounds and assists in each of his last six games at home. Up next is a matchup against the Rockets, who he has already faced three times this season. He registered at least 57 combined points, rebounds and assists in each meeting. With his full complement of weapons expected to be around him, expect Jokic to surpass this total.
Mikal Bridges comes into this matchup having scored at least 32 points in both of the last two games. While he had a modest five rebounds in both of those matchups, he is averaging 6.2 rebounds per game for the season. This is a great matchup for him to be productive both in the scoring department and on the glass. The Wizards have played at the second-fastest pace, have the second-worst defensive rating and have given up the most rebounds per game in the league. The last time he faced them, Bridges recorded 27 points and 13 rebounds over 34 minutes.
The departure of James Harden has provided a significant windfall for Tyrese Maxey. He is averaging 26.9 points on 20.2 shot attempts per game. He is jacking up a lot more shots, but his efficiency has not suffered with him shooting 46.6 percent from the field and 39.4 percent from behind the arc. Entering this matchup with the Hawks, he has scored at least 26 points in five of his last six games. The Hawks have played at the third-fastest pace and they have the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league, so look for Maxey to surpass that threshold again.
Pascal Siakam has seen his scoring average decline to 20.5 points per game this season. Last season, he averaged 24.2 points per game. Part of the reason is that he has been playing less, logging an average of three fewer minutes per game. Still, his matchup against the Hornets is too good to ignore. They have the worst defensive rating in the league and their starting center Mark Williams (back) is listed as questionable. Even if he does play, he is averaging a modest 1.0 blocks per game, so he’s not a huge defensive presence in the paint. After scoring 30 points versus a good defensive team in the Heat on Wednesday, look for Siakam to have another productive evening in the scoring column.
Buddy Hield came off the bench to start this season. Last season, he averaged 16.8 points over 31 minutes per game as mostly a starter. As a member of the second unit, he only averaged 11.3 points over 23 minutes per game. The Pacers then decided to make him a starter again, a role that he has filled in each of their last seven games. That resulted in him averaging 17.4 points over 29 minutes per game. He scored at least 15 points in four of those games. The Pacers and Bucks both rank inside the top-five in the league in pace of play and bottom-10 in defensive rating. Look for Hield to hit this over in a high-scoring matchup.
LaMelo Ball (ankle) is likely going to be out for a while. That means that it’s Terry Rozier’s time to run the show for the Hornets. He’s not a stranger to that role, given that Ball only played 36 games last season. That helped Rozier average a career-high 21.1 points per game. Over the last four games without Ball this season, Rozier scored at least 22 points three times. The key was, he averaged 19.0 shot attempts and 36 minutes over that four-game stretch. His expanded role should help him hit this over.
Zach LaVine (foot) is out again for the Bulls. LaVine has missed three previous games this season and Coby White scored at least 23 points in each of them. White has scored at least 19 points in six of his last seven games, overall, and is shooting a robust 40.3% from behind the arc this season. He’ll have a great matchup against the Hornets, who have the worst defensive rating in the league. Don’t expect them to be able to slow him down.
Mikal Bridges is coming off a 42-point performance against the Magic on Saturday. What makes that performance even more impressive is that the Magic have the third-best defensive rating in the league. This is a much more favorable matchup against the Hawks, who have played at the third-fastest pace and have the fifth-worst defensive rating. The last time he faced them, Bridges scored 45 points in a game that went into overtime. Expect Bridges to blow by this over.
This line has already moved a point higher from earlier in the morning. Still, Durant has scored at least 29 points in 11 of his 18 games this season. He is averaging 31.0 points per game, overall, and is shooting 51.2 percent from the field. The last time he faced the Lakers, he scored 38 points in a game that Booker missed, but Bradley Beal played in. Look for him to score in bunches again in this rematch.
The Suns remain without Bradley Beal (back), who has played in just three games all season. With him out, Devin Booker has a 32.6 percent usage rate and is shooting 47.2 percent from the field. That is a great recipe for a lot of points. With Booker having scored at least 28 points in seven of the 11 games that he has played, take the over here. Shop around for the best odds as there is lower juice out there.
We could see plenty of juicy stat lines from the players on the Celtics in this game. The Pacers have played at the fastest pace and they have the second-worst defensive rating in the league. When White faced them earlier in the season, he posted 18 points and four assists while playing just 27 minutes. The Celtics won that game going away, so he didn’t need to play much late. Kristaps Porzingis (calf) will be out again, and that’s noteworthy because White has produced at least 21 combined points and assists in each of the last three games with him sidelined. Take the over here.
The Celtics will remain shorthanded up front with Kristaps Porzingis (calf) set to miss his fourth straight game. Hauser has been playing more off the bench in his absence, which allowed him to score at least nine points in each of the last three games. Going back even further, Hauser has scored at least nine points in seven of his last eight games. He is an excellent three-point shooter, making 43.7 percent of his attempts from behind the arc. With the Pacers having played at the fastest pace and having the second-worst defensive rating in the league, the over is the way to go with Hauser.
This is a high number for most players to hit. However, Tyreek Hill is not most players. He has at least 100 receiving yards in seven of his 11 games this season. He even has five games with at least 140 receiving yards. The Commanders have allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers in the league. They have given up 9.89 yards per target to the position, which is by far the highest mark in the league. Despite the big number for Hill, I’m still taking the over.