Keldon Johnson has been a key veteran off the bench for the Spurs. He only played eight minutes in Game 1, but he has averaged 18 minutes in the playoffs, so I think we see more of him in Game 2. Even with his limited workload Wednesday, he went 1-for-2 from three. That marked the seventh time over his last eight games that he finished with at least one three-pointer. After he shot 38.3% from three at home this season, I like his chances of making at least one shot from behind the arc in Game 2.
With both teams struggling to hit shots, Dylan Harper had eight rebounds in Game 1. Dating back to the Western Conference Finals, Harper has grabbed at least five rebounds in five straight games. Like a lot of young players, he seems to perform better at home. He averaged 3.9 rebounds a game at home this season, compared to 2.9 a night on the road. After playing so well across 28 minutes in Game 1, I think he sees a similar workload in Game 2 and hits this over.
Josh Hart dealt with some early foul trouble in Game 1, which contributed to him only playing 27 minutes. Still, he finished with six assists. He is averaging 33 minutes a game in the playoffs, so if he can avoid foul trouble, we could see even more of him in Game 2. He has a ton of efficient shooters around him, which has helped him record at least five assists in six of his last nine games. Look for him to record at least five assists again.
Against the stellar Thunder defense, De’Aaron Fox recorded at least five assists in all five games that he played. In three of them, he finished with at least six assists. Although he only produced five assists in Game 7, he should have finished with a lot more as his teammates missed several open looks. The biggest takeaway from that game was that Fox logged 36 minutes, which was his most in a game since returning from his ankle injury. He averaged 6.2 assists per game during the regular season and had at least six assists all three times he played the Knicks, including in the NBA Cup Championship game. I like his chances to reach that threshold again in Game 1.
After a slow start to the playoffs, Mikal Bridges has scored at least 15 points in eight of his last nine games. During that span, he averaged 18.7 points and shot 62.8% from the field, including 37.9% from three. This game being played in San Antonio isn’t a big negative for him because he was better on the road during the regular season. He averaged 13.1 points per game at home, but 15.6 points per game on the road. Another reason to like this over is that Bridges has averaged 36 minutes over the last seven games.
Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (calf) have been ruled out for Game 7. Kenrich Williams wasn’t part of the original rotation in this series, but their injuries have brought him back into the fold. He has played at least 12 minutes in each of the last three games, averaging 8.3 points and 4.7 rebounds along the way. In all three games, he finished with at least 11 combined points and rebounds. He shot 48.4% from the field and 41.0% from behind the arc at home during the regular season, so with the expectation that he plays around 15 minutes Saturday, this over is appealing.
De’Aaron Fox continues to battle through his ankle injury. While it seems to be impacting his shot, it hasn’t hurt him in terms of rebounds and assists. Despite only playing 26 minutes in Thursday’s lopsided win, he still finished with five rebounds and seven assists. After averaging 3.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists against the Thunder during the regular season, he has posted at least 12 combined rebounds and assists in all four playoff games against them. I’ll take this over again.
Luke Kornet is averaging 11 minutes per game in this series. He scored at least four points in three of the five games. He is shooting 63.6% from the field for the series and shot 67.6% from the field at home during the regular season. Across eight home playoff games, he scored at least two points seven times. All we need is one bucket from a very efficient scorer who is also a good offensive rebounder. Take this over.
De’Aaron Fox has played at least 31 minutes in all three games since returning from his ankle injury. He hasn’t been scoring a ton, but he has contributed in other areas. He has provided at least 12 combined rebounds and assists in all three games. Across five regular season games against the Thunder, he averaged 3.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists. I’ll take this over again.
With the Spurs blowing out the Thunder in Game 4, Devin Vassell played a series low 33 minutes. He still finished with 13 points and six rebounds, despite only attempting seven shots. For the entire series, he is averaging 17.0 points and 5.8 rebounds. He was more productive on the road than at home during the regular season. He averaged 12.5 points and shot 40.8% from the field at home, compared to 15.3 points a game and 46.4% shooting on the road. In what should be a closer game, I like Vassell’s chances of hitting this over.
De’Aaron Fox has played exactly 31 minutes in both games since returning from his ankle injury. While he didn’t score more than 15 points in either game, he made significant impacts in other areas. After posting seven rebounds and six assists in Game 3, he had 10 rebounds and five assists in Game 4. Over five regular season games against the Thunder, he averaged 3.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists. Look for him to remain productive in both departments.
Jarrett Allen had his best performance of the series in Game 3, scoring 17 points over 36 minutes. Over his last nine playoff games, he has averaged 15.7 points and shot 64.6% from the field. He scored at least 13 points in seven of those nine games, including two of the games against the Knicks. He only had 10 points in Game 1, but that was because he shot 4-for-8 from the free throw line. He doesn’t usually struggle there as he is a career 71.1% shooter from the charity stripe. Allen should play a lot as the Cavaliers try to avoid elimination, so take this over.
Mikal Bridges was excellent again in Game 3, scoring 22 points across 39 minutes. He has played at least 39 minutes and scored at least 18 points in all three games of this series. He has been incredibly efficient, shooting 71.1% from the field. Going back to the previous round, Bridges has scored at least 17 points in seven of his last eight games. With him likely to approach 40 minutes again in Game 4, the over is the way to go here.
Jalen Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable after sitting out Game 3. I think he sits again, given how many issues he has had with his hamstrings this season. To complicate matters for the Thunder, Ajay Mitchell (calf) won’t play. Cason Wallace has already had a productive series, posting at least 14 combined points, rebounds and assists in all three games. He should play close to 30 minutes Sunday, leaving him with a favorable opportunity to hit this over.
The Spurs have been trying to force the ball out of the hands of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Not only do they have good defensive guards to throw at him, but they have also been sending double teams his way. That has forced Gilgeous-Alexander to look for his teammates more. The result has been him recording at least nine assists in all three games of this series. In two of them, he had 12 assists each. Expect the Spurs to continue to deploy a similar strategy, making this over appealing.











