Jeff's Picks (1 Live)
Jeff's Past Picks
Boise State's tackling performance in 2024 has been a significant area of concern. The Broncos rank 130th in PFF's Tackling grades, which places them near the bottom of all FBS teams. This poor tackling performance is further emphasized by their ranking of 196th out of all FBS and FCS defenses in broken and missed tackles allowed. UNLV has recorded 82 tackles for loss on 376 attempts, which ranks as the 3rd best among Non-Power Conference teams. Tackling in extreme cold weather is complex, and the Runnin' Rebels have a big-time edge. They are playing with double revenge after losing earlier this season and in last year's MWC championship game. UNLV has a massive special teams advantage as well.
This will be the Stars' third game in four days, while the LA Kings will have two days of rest. The Kings were swept in the season series last year, losing all three matchups, so they will likely have this game circled on their calendar. Dallas has a record of .500 in road games. The Kings rank first in the league in shots allowed per game, averaging just 24.2, and they give up only 2.00 goals per game at home. Los Angeles owns a shot differential of +100, while Dallas has a differential of +56. Additionally, the Stars will be without center Tyler Seguin, who has scored 20 points in 19 games. I like the home dog!
This will be the Commanders’ 13th straight game without two weeks of rest. The Titans are ranked third in net yards per play defense, second in yards per game defense, second in third-down defense, third in net yards per pass defense, and eighth in run defense while playing the sixth toughest schedule. Washington has played the 25th toughest schedule, and they are 1-7-1 SU and 2-7 ATS in Pre-Bye week games against the AFC. My betting model makes Washington a favorite of 3.5 points, so I have to take the +5.5 spread.
Kansas State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 23 vs. No. 32) and has better net yards per play (+0.9 vs. +0.6). The Wildcats have the better sack differential (+1.6 vs. -0.3) and have outgained 10 of 11 foes this season. Kansas State is ranked 15th in rushing yards per game (202.7), while Iowa State is ranked 100th in rushing yards allowed (176.6). Last year, the Cyclones defeated Kansas State 42-35 as 9.5-point road dogs, despite a 32-10 First down margin and 42:12 to 17:48 time of possession deficit. The underdog is 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings. This will be the season's first game in which the Wildcats are underdogs as they look to play spoiler. Take the points!
The Vegas Golden Knights will play their fifth road game in seven days and at high altitude. Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche are returning home after a demoralizing 8-2 loss against Tampa Bay. The Avalanche are looking for revenge after losing 8-4 to the Golden Knights on October 9, despite outshooting Vegas 32-21. We have a double system on the home team. Currently, Vegas is ranked as the 9th luckiest team, while Colorado is ranked as the 4th unluckiest squad. Additionally, Vegas is dealing with several key injuries, which explains the current betting line.
This is not an ideal travel situation for the Nashville Predators. They have just completed five consecutive road games and one home game, and now they are hitting the road again. The New Jersey Devils rank 7th in shots allowed per game, while the Predators are ranked 21st. New Jersey boasts a shot differential of +59, whereas Nashville's is only +4. Additionally, the Devils have five players—Bratt, Hughes, Hischier, Hoesen, and Hamilton—ranked in the top 75 in points, while the Predators have none. Overall, the Devils' team speed will likely be too much for the Predators to handle.
The Arizona Cardinals went 0-6 against division rivals last season. We like betting on these teams in division matchups the following season. Seattle defeated the Cardinals as 3-point road favorites despite being out-gained 466-327 on January 7. Arizona lost by one possession against Mike Macdonald's defense last season. I like that they faced his scheme with much better personnel on the Ravens. Arizona has won three of their previous four games following its BYE week. The Cardinals have played a tougher schedule, ranking No. 2, while Seattle ranks No. 16. Additionally, they rank 12 spots higher in special teams and have a more favorable sack differential (+0.9 vs. -0.9). According to my betting model, Arizona should be favored by 2.5 points.
Both teams have played similar strength of schedules so far this season. This is the absolute top of the market for the Detroit Lions after scoring 50+ points in two of their past four games. My betting Model makes the Lions a favorite of 8.4 points. However, it would help if you took that with a grain of salt, as the Colts have been ravaged by injuries to their front seven and, of course, the QB shuffle. Shane Steichen has a brilliant mind, and I will trust him to keep this one close as they try to save their season. It’s worth noting that the Lions have struggled relatively (one possession wins) against QBs (Stroud & Murray), who average at least 5.0 yards per rush.
Winnipeg will be playing back-to-back road games for the first time this season, and Eric Comrie is expected to start in goal. Doing a deep dive, I see that the Jets are the fifth luckiest team, while Nashville is ranked dead last. The Predators have metrics that suggest they should have 10 wins, while the Jets should have 12. The Predators rank first in penalty kill percentage, while the Jets are ranked 17th. Nashville is ranked fifth in Face-off win percentage, while the Jets are ranked 21st. The Predators must start winning games to avoid a coaching change. Play Nashville.
The Kansas Jayhawks have strong cornerbacks, Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson, to defend against the pass, which Colorado relies on heavily. Colorado has faced a weaker schedule, ranked No. 41 compared to No. 24, and has yet to secure a victory against a ranked team. Kansas is ranked 19th in both EPA per play and offensive success rate, averaging over 400 yards in four of their last five games. The Buffaloes' offensive metrics are closer to average than elite (42nd EPA per play & 44th in success rate). They've surpassed 400 yards just twice in their last five games. Colorado ranks 23rd in luck rankings, while Kansas is 132nd. The Jayhawks need victories to become bowl-eligible. Strong system on the home dog!
The Indiana Hoosiers have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. The Buckeyes' starting Center went down in practice and is out. They are also dealing with other critical injuries up and down the roster. Indiana will be super motivated, considering Ohio State is 10-0 SU against the Hoosiers in their last ten meetings. Ironically, Indiana enters this matchup at 10-0. Take the points!
Dalton Knecht will be in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. The Magic are ranked second in defensive efficiency, but they are ranked 18th in three-point defense. Dalton averages 11.3 points per game, shooting 52.3% from the field and an outstanding 46.4% from three-point range. He has a quick release and is highly polished after a long college career at Tennessee. His points prop needs to be higher, especially with increased playing time.
This will be the Golden Knights' first back-to-back road games this season. They are just 2-3 without Mark Stone (21 points in 13 games) entering Wednesday's game. The Ottawa Senators are ranked fourth in shot differential (+93) and have played the fourth most demanding schedule so far this season. Vegas defeated Ottawa 6-4 on October 25 despite getting outshot 39-28. I like the home team in this spot.
The LA Chargers have several advantages in important defensive metrics, including net yards per play, total yards allowed per game, red zone defense, third-down efficiency, run defense, and net yards per pass attempt. Additionally, LA boasts stronger special teams and ranks six spots higher in DVOA, which accounts for strength of schedule. There is another essential factor for this game. The Ravens played the Bengals on November 7th, and I believe the Harbaugh brothers share insights about common opponents when they speak on the phone. According to my betting model (not power rankings), the Chargers should be favored by 3.9 points, assuming Tee Higgins & Orlando Brown Jr. are back for the Bengals. I like the home team quite a bit!