The Canadians aim to bounce back after Tuesday's meltdown...

Trevor Lawrence faces tough test as 10-Point road favorite…

Houston is 1-7 ATS in their last eight post-bye road games...

Early kickoff for the “Holy War”: 10:00 AM local time...

The Utah Mammoth are fifth in shots allowed per game and have an +82 shot differential. Toronto is 25th with a -19 shot differential. Utah is seventh in scoring chances, while the Leafs are 22nd. The Mammoth have a +12 high-danger shot differential at 5-on-5, while Toronto is at -14. Utah is 6-0 after a loss this season and already defeated Toronto when they were healthier. Toronto's forward depth is severely compromised by injuries to John Tavares (IR), Kirill Marchenko (IR, out until November 17), Max Domi (IR-LT), and defenseman Nick Blankenburg (IR), forcing heavy usage on Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and rookie Gavin McKenna. The Leafs have a huge revenge game against Montreal on deck. I like the road team in this spot.

Minnesota travels to Salt Lake City for its third game in four days, concluding a grueling road trip that has taken them from Canada to Seattle and back to Canada again. The Utah Mammoth have built a strong home-ice advantage at Delta Center, bolstered by two extra days of rest and the high-altitude challenge. Utah’s offense, featuring Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, and Logan Cooley, generates 9.5 high-danger chances per game—fourth-best in the NHL. While Utah has struggled on the penalty kill, Minnesota is not known for drawing many penalties, averaging just 2.8 to 3.0 power plays per 60 minutes on the road. This translates to only 5 to 6 minutes of shorthanded play for the home team. This spot screams Utah. Play up to -130.

Head coach Dan Campbell is notoriously dominant when given extra time to prepare. When Detroit enters a contest with a rest advantage (7 to 14 days between games, compared with a normal 6 to 8 days' rest), Campbell’s Lions are 38-12-2 ATS (76%) in the first half. When favored in the first half under these exact rest parameters, Campbell is 22-4 ATS (84.6%). Detroit’s offense averages a league-leading (tied with Buffalo) 32.8 points per game and converts red-zone trips into touchdowns at an 80% clip indoors at Ford Field. This is a dual qualifier from my Trench article, which I encourage you to read. I also like the full game at -3 or less.

Las Vegas owns an elite +7 sack differential, while Los Angeles lags at -2. Look at the point differential: Las Vegas is 0.0 while LA is -0.5. Matthew Stafford will be without top vertical and red-zone threat, Davante Adams. On the other side, with Rams defensive tackle Kobie Turner sidelined, Las Vegas' interior offensive line can generate consistent push for Ashton Jeanty and company. Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer have been dynamic in 12 personnel, and Gary Kubiak and his staff are far and away superior to last year’s coaching staff. The Raiders have been competitive at home and are much healthier right now. Teams with a highly positive mid-season sack differential win roughly 65.4% of their games. Grab the points in this upset maker.

Drew Rasmussen has a 1.29 postseason ERA with 23 strikeouts and just 3 walks in 21 innings. He usually goes 7 innings per playoff start and has great command (107 Location+), which helps against Milwaukee’s lineup that relies on drawing walks. On the other side, Logan Henderson (86 postseason Stuff+, 5 walks in 9 innings) is coming off an 11-day break. Milwaukee used its top three relievers (Megill, Ashby, Uribe) in Game 1, while Tampa Bay kept its best bullpen arms (Montgomery, Wells, Seymour) fresh. The Rays are 10-0 when Rasmussen starts after a team loss this year. I like Tampa Bay to tie the series, especially at plus money.

BYU heads to Orlando after a dramatic 28–24 win over Notre Dame, a victory that vaulted them to No. 2 in the AP poll. Next up: the Knights’ Homecoming game, where BYU will need to stay sharp under the warm Florida sun (low to mid 80s) without stud running back LJ Martin. UCF brings a top-15 rushing attack and could test a BYU defense that just spent over 70 snaps on the field last week. Head coach Scott Frost is known for creative rushing plays and will look to exploit any signs of fatigue. The Knights are also dangerous in the red zone, converting 21 of 22 chances. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins is coming off a four-touchdown performance and will get the start. Take the points.

Jacob Misiorowski relies on his four-seam fastball, using it for 63.4% of his pitches. Most major-league hitters with average bat speed (under 72 mph) have trouble catching up to his high velocity. Junior Caminero has elite bat speed, averaging 77.4 mph (99th percentile), and his power numbers back it up: 42 home runs, a 13.1% barrel rate, and a 49.7% hard-hit rate in the regular season. Statcast data shows that Caminero does very well against fastballs thrown at 98 mph or higher, producing a .412 xwOBA and a .568 xSLG. Since Misiorowski often attacks the strike zone (6.6% walk rate), Caminero will at least have a chance. The roof at American Family Field will be closed for Game 1, which slightly favors hitters.

Vegas currently ranks 6th in shots allowed per game and owns a +57 shot differential. Meanwhile, St. Louis sits at 17th with a -10 shot differential. The Golden Knights lost 6-2 at home despite out-shooting Tampa Bay 34-21. St. Louis beat the Jets 2-1 despite being outshot 33-28. Now, Vegas faces the Blues—a team I have ranked 12 spots lower. In terms of Save Percentage Above Expected for unblocked shots, Vegas is 12th, while the Blues are way down at 30th. Vegas also features five players in the top 100 for points, compared to just two for the Blues (and Robert Thomas isn’t one of them). I think the line should be 20-30 cents higher.

The Kraken return home after a grueling five-game, eight-day road trip. That stretch began in Detroit, where Seattle pulled off a 6-3 win, even though they were outshot 40-24. Despite allowing the third-most shots on goal, the Kraken have managed a +3 goal differential, though their shot differential sits at -48. Detroit has a +28 shot differential and ranks fourth in 5-on-5 high-danger chances percentage (59.1%). Seattle ranks 25th in that category, at 45.5%. The Kraken have taken 242 hits this season—second most in the league—while the Red Wings have absorbed 165. Detroit, having played only one road game so far this season, should be well-rested and energized. I like the Red Wings in this spot.

The Buccaneers enter this matchup well-rested, while Pittsburgh faces a potential distraction ahead of its Week 7 trip to Paris. The Steelers typically succeed when they can establish the run, but that's unlikely against Tampa Bay, which allows 3.3 yards per carry (2nd best in the league). If forced to rely on the passing game, Pittsburgh's efficiency plummets as the game progresses. Jalon Daniels provides Tampa Bay with a legitimate dual-threat option, capable of evading the pass rush and moving the chains. The "Pre-Travel Lookahead/Distraction System" identifies teams scheduled to cross the Atlantic the following week. Betting against the travel squad has yielded a strong 22-11-1 ATS record. Backing underdogs in this spot are 10-4 ATS, with six outright wins. Steelers have many injuries.

Alabama faces a tough road matchup after a draining three-point loss to Georgia. The Tide will miss top receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams, removing their main deep threat on late downs and in the red zone. Tennessee’s defense is among the nation’s best, ranking top five in EPA/play allowed and holding opposing quarterbacks to a 94.8 rating (5.2 net yards per pass). Tennessee’s defensive line wins 82% of its pass-rush battles, and with Alabama’s offensive line posting a 74% pass-block win rate, expect steady pressure in front of a raucous Neyland Stadium crowd. It won’t matter who starts at quarterback for Tennessee. The Volunteers are averaging 5.7 yards per carry, which should help limit possessions. Alabama has played the tougher schedule, but this line is inflated.