Utah looks to continue its playoff push...

These are the two best teams remaining in the tournament, and the winner of this game will likely claim the National Championship. Both teams match up well, but I believe the Wildcats have more depth, especially after Michigan lost L.J. Cason to an ACL injury just before the postseason. While Michigan hasn’t needed him so far, his 40% three-point shooting could be missed in this matchup. Arizona doesn’t attempt many threes, but they are capable shooters and may take more shots from beyond the arc in this game. After analyzing both teams throughout the season, my betting model favors Arizona by 2.5 points—a prediction I strongly endorse. Arizona’s decisive edge on the boards was the pivotal factor that convinced me to side with them.

Seattle returns home after a grueling 12-day, six-game road trip that concluded in Edmonton on March 31. Teams crossing multiple time zones in a single week typically win 6.2% fewer games. Meanwhile, Utah has been well-rested, last playing on March 28, when they beat the Kings. Historically, NHL road teams with a rest advantage of three days or more over their hosts have been profitable, showing a +9.7% ROI. The Mammoth are ranked 6th in shots against with a +110 shot differential and a +17 High-Danger mark. In contrast, the Kraken rank 20th in shots allowed, with a -279 shot differential and a -27 High-Danger mark. Utah is not only the superior possession team but also has a massive rest advantage.

The New Jersey Devils still have an outside shot at making the playoffs. Until they are officially eliminated, New Jersey remains a team I want to back. The Devils are 2-0 against the Rangers this season, outscoring them 12-6 and outshooting them 74-38 across both games. New Jersey ranks 14th in shots against and has a +178 shot differential, while the Rangers are ranked 26th with a -294 shot differential. New Jersey ranks 16th in scoring chances, compared to the Rangers at 26th. MSG has been a nightmare for New York, as the team has posted a dismal 11-25 home record. New York is coming off a win against the Panthers, but teams are just 26-40 after facing the defending back-to-back champions.

Joshua Jefferson is highly questionable to play. Iowa State's head athletic trainer confirmed that Jefferson "rolled it pretty good" and noted that the ankle is still in the "acute stage" of recovery. The Cyclones don’t have much depth inside, so losing him hurts even more. And now, they have to face Tennessee, which is just about the worst matchup for a team missing its best big man, who ranks second in POY rankings. If Jefferson does play, he won’t be 100%. The Volunteers crash the offensive glass (44.8% rate, best in the country), which means they get tons of second-chance points and extra shots. Additionally, Tennessee is outstanding at defending the three-point line, an area where Iowa State has consistently struggled against strong perimeter defenses.

Arizona dominates inside the arc and should have an advantage on the boards; notably, the Wildcats don’t rely on three-pointers. Arkansas provides a tactical blueprint to exploit Arizona’s low-volume threes, as the Razorbacks are eighth nationally in three-point shooting (38.9%) and rank first in Turnover Percentage. I have always liked underdogs with that combo in Sweet 16 matchups. Additionally, Darius Acuff Jr. is playing at an elite level and appears set to continue his hot streak. Meanwhile, Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd has consistently struggled to push his teams beyond the Sweet 16, often falling to squads with superior guard play. As a result, grabbing over three possessions' worth of points with an elite shooting team in a high-tempo game is a mathematically pristine position.

The LA Kings are entering a grueling stretch, playing their third game in four days and fourth in six. After an overtime battle in Utah, they now head to Canada to face a Calgary team that has consistently proven difficult to beat. The Flames have claimed victory in seven of the last ten meetings, including a 2-0 loss on the road last month. Over the past three years, Calgary has thrived in the final month of the season against Pacific Division opponents, posting an 11–3–4 record. The Flames embrace the “spoiler” role and have an edge in goal—ranking 14th in Goals Saved Above Expected (-0.11), while the Kings sit 24th (-7.89). Los Angeles leads the NHL with 17 overtime losses. I like the home team.

Since losing JT Toppin, the Red Raiders have posted a 4–3 record, suggesting they are vulnerable against teams with elite interior presence or high-volume transition attacks. Texas Tech is due for regression coming off a 55% 3-point performance over Akron, while Alabama shot just 33% from downtown in their win over Hofstra. Alabama’s Aiden Sherrell and Amari Allen are ready to dominate the glass and provide additional scoring chances that will exhaust the Red Raiders’ thin frontcourt rotation. Alabama holds a 7–1 all-time series lead against Texas Tech, including a perfect 2–0 record on neutral floors.

With fewer than 62 possessions projected, points will be scarce and margins tight. A 10.5-point spread in a slow game is like 14 in a fast-paced one. Northern Iowa is the nation’s best at defending the perimeter, allowing just 6.3 opponent three-pointers per game. St. John’s depends on offensive rhythm and spacing, but UNI’s defense and tempo will force a half-court battle. While UNI’s overall offense ranks just 153rd in AdjO, the numbers are skewed by their slow pace. In the half-court, UNI is highly efficient—consistently generating high-quality shots and maintaining a strong points-per-possession rate. The Red Storm struggles to shoot the basketball at a high level and must travel cross-country after an exhausting Big East Title run. My model made the favorite -8.6 points.

Saint Mary’s is the more talented team and deserves to be a larger favorite. Their strong defense and elite rebounding give them one of the nation’s best Defensive Rebounding Percentages, limiting opponents’ second-chance points. Texas A&M relies on offensive rebounds, but that edge will likely disappear. They also foul often, benefiting Saint Mary’s, the nation’s top free-throw shooting team (81.1%). The Gaels played a much tougher non-conference schedule. Saint Mary’s went 2-1 against top-12 opponents, while Texas A&M went 0-2. Notably, Texas A&M struggled against taller teams, going just 1-5 versus opponents averaging 6’7” or taller, whereas Saint Mary’s excelled against shorter teams, posting a 22-1 record against squads with an average height of 6’5” or less. This matchup plays directly into Saint Mary’s strengths.

The Carolina Hurricanes lead the league in shot differential (+541) and boast the NHL’s best shots against metric. They also have a +57 high-danger differential. The Columbus Blue Jackets rank 25th in shots against, with a +31 shot differential and a +23 high-danger mark. Both teams will play with two days' rest. Carolina is 6-3 in such situations, averaging 3.7 goals for and 2.8 goals against. Columbus is 4-7, averaging 2.2 goals for and 3.5 goals against. The Blue Jackets have gone to overtime in six of their last ten games, winning just two. The Hurricanes are 17–6–1 in games where they score at least one power-play goal, and 3–0 when coming off two or more games without a power-play tally.

Cornell scores quickly but lacks defense, ranking last in the Ivy League for points allowed (83.2) and near the bottom nationally in Defensive eFG% (55.6%). Yale is built to exploit this, with a strong Offensive eFG% (56.1%, 25th nationally), low turnover rate (14.2%), and dominance on the offensive glass (32.8% ORB%). Cornell’s inability to end defensive possessions (29.9% allowed) further tilts the matchup toward Yale, whose roster averages two inches taller than Cornell. The teams split their season series, each winning at home: Yale dominated the first matchup 102-68, while Cornell narrowly won the rematch 72-69 by hitting 14 threes. Yale gets revenge at Newman Arena. Lay the favorite.

Dallas is 2-0 against Edmonton this season, including an 8-3 rout in Edmonton, during which they scored three power-play goals. The Stars avenged last season’s playoff elimination by Edmonton. Now, it’s the Oilers’ turn to respond. Dallas will be without Roope Hintz (44 points in 53 games) and Mikko Rantanen (69 points in 54 games), both of whom were key contributors in the previous wins. Surprisingly, Dallas ranks 28th in shots on goal and has a -34 shot differential. The Oilers are 6th in shots on goal with a +164 shot differential, and rank 4th in high-danger scoring chances. Edmonton is in a tight playoff race, currently sitting sixth (tied) in the Western Conference and needing key victories to solidify its postseason position.

USC’s primary vulnerability is turnovers, but Washington’s passive defense ranks just 326th nationally in forced turnover percentage. The Trojans have proven resilient in tight games, posting a 9-4 record in contests decided by six points or fewer, while Washington is just 1-6. Neither team excels from three-point range, but USC’s perimeter defense is among the nation’s best. Washington has beaten USC twice this season, including a commanding 91-72 victory on March 4, when the Huskies shot 48% compared to USC’s 38%. The Trojans have dropped seven straight games and are 0-6 against the spread in their last six outings. Despite enduring injuries all season, this could be an ideal scenario for USC to finally cover. They will be extremely motivated in this spot.

The Ottawa Senators continue their quest for a playoff spot, aiming to win back-to-back games for the first time since early February. Ottawa is ranked 2nd in shots against and owns a +254 shot differential, including a +32 advantage in high-danger chances. In contrast, Seattle is ranked 22nd in shots against with a -253 shot differential and a -36 mark in high-danger chances. Puck possession also favors the Senators, who rank 3rd, while Seattle sits at 25th. Teams with a +200 or better shot differential are 6-0 this season against opponents with a -200 or worse shot differential. Looking at the past decade, teams with a +30 or higher high-danger differential against teams with a -30 or worse have won 67% of those matchups.