Mike LaFleur enters his first season as Arizona's head coach...

Christian Scott has elite pitching metrics, recording a 108 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+, compared to Tanner Bibee’s below-average 98 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+. Scott has a 28.8% strikeout rate and an 18.6% K-BB rate, while Bibee has fallen to an 18.6% strikeout rate and an 11.5% K-BB rate. Cleveland’s current roster has just a .135 expected batting average against Scott’s four-seam/sweeper mix, while Mets hitters have a .259 xBA and .426 expected slugging percentage against Bibee’s primary pitches. Bibee has thrown 100 and 107 pitches in his last two starts—the first time he has done so this season. He gave up seven earned runs after throwing 104 pitches in May. Let's play the Mets first five money line for half a unit.

Houston is batting .289 with an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .502 and an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .361 in 230 plate appearances against Nathan Eovaldi—the third-highest xwOBA of any starting pitcher scheduled to take the mound on Friday. The Rangers' bullpen enters this game severely taxed, having thrown 225 pitches over the past five days. Friday’s matchup will be the Rangers' 8th straight game without a day off. Hunter Brown has electric stuff, holding opponents to a .192 batting average in 47 innings. And his advanced metrics look strong. He has limited the Rangers' hitters to a .216 batting average and a .377 expected slugging percentage over 111 plate appearances. He just needs to limit walks.

Nathan Eovaldi throws his splitter 37% of the time, his curveball 22%, and his split-finger 13% of the time. Yordan Alvarez excels against all three pitch types, posting lofty slugging numbers. Eovaldi has allowed the sixth-most home runs (22) this season. In his career, Alvarez is batting .480 with two doubles and two home runs in 25 at-bats against the veteran pitcher. The slugger went 0-for-4 on Wednesday and had Thursday off. The Rangers' bullpen enters this game severely taxed, having thrown 225 pitches over the past five days. Big night for Yordan and the Astros at Daikin Park. I have a feeling Alvarez goes yard in his first at-bat. Sprinkle that.

Before joining the Phillies organization, Brian Keller spent six years climbing through the New York Yankees’ minor league system. He has put together a strong minor league resume, posting a 3.11 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 616 strikeouts over 593 2/3 innings. This year, Keller has continued to impress, pitching to a 2.09 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and recording 41 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings. Ryan Weathers has a 4.40 ERA and a 4.56 expected ERA. He has already logged a career-high 102 1/3 innings this season. The Phillies have fared well against Weathers in the past, hitting .368 with a 1.426 OPS in 36 career at-bats. Kyle Schwarber is 3-for-6 with a double and two home runs. I like the home dog in this spot.

Chase Burns is reminiscent of what Luis Castillo was nearly 10 years ago, ironically also for the Reds. Burns owns an 11-1 record, a 2.54 ERA, a 3.16 expected ERA, a 3.40 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP. He demonstrates strong bat-missing ability, posting a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 31.7% whiff rate. His arsenal features a high-90s mph four-seam fastball (113 Stuff+) paired with a low-90s mph slider that holds opposing batters to a .182 expected batting average and produces a 37.4% chase rate. Castillo has pitched better of late, but I’m fading his season-long metrics. He has a 4.93 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, and an opponent batting average of .264, which is higher than the league average of .242. First five avoids bullpen variance.

Sports betting isn’t just about analyzing matchups and picking a side or total, etc. There are proven systems that consistently deliver results over time. One I’ve trusted for many years focuses on the All-Star Game host team, which always plays at home right after the break. Since 2002, these teams are just 8-15, including a 2-6 mark since 2017. The only recent winners: the 2022 Dodgers and the 2025 Braves. I like the Mets’ Christian Scott against Aaron Nola, but with these systems, you set it and forget it. This approach has paid off, especially since most of these teams are underdogs. Additionally, all of the host teams have played on Friday, but this year the Phillies have to play on Thursday.

Colorado Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland has had a tough season, coming into this game with a 7.25 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He leans heavily on his fastball, cutter and curveball, using those pitches nearly 70 percent of the time. Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman matches up well—his expected slugging against those pitches is .653, .718 and .527. Freeland has managed to keep Freeman in check before (.341 slugging), but that was earlier in his career. Tonight is Freddie Freeman Bobblehead Night at Dodger Stadium, and Freeman has a gift for rising to the occasion on these special nights, going deep in both 2023 and 2025. The warm July air in Los Angeles should only help hitters, making extra-base hits more likely.

Colorado Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland has had a tough season, coming into this game with a 7.25 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He leans heavily on his fastball, cutter and curveball, using those pitches nearly 70 percent of the time. Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman matches up well—his expected slugging against those pitches is .653, .718 and .527. Freeland has managed to keep Freeman in check before (.341 slugging), but that was earlier in his career. Tonight is Freddie Freeman Bobblehead Night at Dodger Stadium, and Freeman has a gift for rising to the occasion on these special nights, going deep in both 2023 and 2025. The warm July air in Los Angeles should only help hitters, making extra-base hits more likely.

Dylan Cease is putting together a stellar season, posting a 3.02 ERA, 2.36 FIP and 128 strikeouts in just 83 1/3 innings. His 128 Stuff+ and 112 Pitching+ highlight his elite arsenal, anchored by a high-spin slider with sharp, late movement. Cease will take on a Mariners lineup that ranks 26th in team batting average (.233) and strikes out often (11th most in MLB), making his slider-fastball combination a tough assignment for Seattle. Meanwhile, Luis Castillo enters with a 4.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and a career-low 8.6 K/9. He’s giving up a 46.5% hard-hit rate. The ballpark also favors pitchers who rack up strikeouts and limit base runners, as T-Mobile Park ranks last in Park Factor. I like the road team in this spot.

Braxton Ashcraft is enjoying a true breakout season, anchored by a stellar 3.07 ERA and 2.84 FIP. Since May 1, he has shown noticeable gain in both his raw stuff and command, with his Stuff+ climbing to 107 and Location+ reaching an elite 108. In contrast, Aaron Nola has struggled mightily, posting a 5.58 ERA and 1.45 WHIP—numbers that reflect his declining pitch quality. Nola’s fastball now ranks among the league’s worst, with a -13 run value that places him in the bottom 1st percentile, and his Location+ on the four-seamer has dropped to 91. Meanwhile, the Pirates lead the majors in hits and are second in batting average. The Phillies swept a three game series in Pittsburgh last month. Payback.

Let’s keep this simple: the Yankees are trying to avoid a four-game sweep by their biggest rivals. This has been a strong system for decades on winning teams. In the prop markets, Ben Rice stands out—he’s 3-for-4 with two home runs against Sonny Gray, whose expected ERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. Carlos Rodon’s ERA and xERA are closely aligned, and he owns a career 11.9 K/9 at Fenway Park. Getting plus money in this spot is tough to ignore.

Nate Eovaldi’s reputation is keeping this total relatively low, but my model projects the over at 9.85 runs. Patrick Corbin gets the start, and with Wyatt Langford back in the lineup, the Rangers’ right-handed power poses a significant threat. Corbin’s 5.64 ERA and 5.96 xERA at Rogers Centre illustrate his continuing difficulties, particularly with a hittable sinker-slider mix that allows a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Toronto’s offense is also equipped to capitalize against Eovaldi: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a .444 average with two home runs in 27 at-bats against him, and Kazuma Okamoto has crushed 18 home runs this season. Eovaldi is coming off a rough June, posting a 5.11 ERA. Both bullpens have performed reasonably well, but each has been heavily taxed this week.

The Twins are currently +135 home underdogs, showing an implied win probability of just 42.55%. However, my model makes Minnesota a -118 favorite, projecting a true win probability of 54.13%. This edge is mainly driven by Zebby Matthews’ superior command compared to Eric Lauer, who has recorded only 40 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. Since June 1st, the Dodgers’ bullpen has struggled, posting a 7.51 ERA. Meanwhile, the Twins have excelled against Lauer, hitting .339 with a .668 xSLG in 70 plate appearances. Notably, the Dodgers have never faced Matthews. Minnesota enters this matchup in excellent form, having won seven of its last ten games and six of its last seven. For added security, I recommend backing the Twins +1.5 on the run line.

Mookie Betts’ modest .203 average and 7 home runs are partly due to missing a month with an oblique strain, but his advanced stats indicate improvement is on the horizon. Betts ranks in the 98th percentile for Sweet-Spot% (44.2%), showing he’s making quality contact. On Friday, he’ll face Trey Gibson, a pitcher who struggles to generate strikeouts with just 12 in 21 innings. It’s also Mookie Betts “Game 7 Double Play” Bobblehead Night at Dodger Stadium. Betts has a history of delivering on promo nights—he crushed a memorable homer on his first Dodgers Bobblehead Night in 2021 and collected multiple hits in two other giveaway games. Given both the favorable matchup and the special occasion, we have to play this at the current number.