Jeff's Pick (1 Live)
Jeff's Past Picks
The Horned Frogs feel very proud after their appearance in last year's championship game. They must pull off an upset against the Sooners to qualify for a bowl game. TCU has a positive yard differential and a solid special teams unit. Oklahoma has played a slightly more demanding schedule and is dealing with some injuries ahead of this game. Grab the points!
The New Mexico State Aggies pulled off a major upset by defeating the Auburn Tigers as 24.5-point road underdogs last week. Win or lose, they have already qualified for the Conference USA Championship game next week. As a result, they may decide to rest some of their key players. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks have a solid rushing attack, averaging 249 yards per game. They will be going against a team that ranks 99th in success rate against the run. The Gamecocks have a strong defense, ranked 18th in yards per play against (4.7), while New Mexico State is ranked 74th (5.6). This game is crucial for Jacksonville State as they are not eligible to play in the postseason, making this their de facto bowl game.
The statistics show that the Flyers are doing better than the Islanders in terms of shots against, shot differential, and goal differential. The Flyers are ranked ninth in shots against, with a plus-67 shot differential and a plus-8 goal differential. Meanwhile, the Islanders are ranked 27th in shots against, with a minus-69 shot differential and a minus-12 goal differential. Based on these stats, it is likely that the Flyers will break their seven-game losing streak against the Islanders in New York.
The Buccaneers have played six straight games (Week Five Bye) without rest and are coming off a physical matchup against San Francisco. I love playing on teams off their BYE with an offensive-minded head coach (Shane Steichen). Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in yards per play (4.9) and 27th in yards per play against (5.7). Indianapolis ranks 16th in yards per play (5.4) and 15th in yards per play against (5.2). Also, Tampa Bay ranks 30th in third-down defense, while the Colts rank 14th. Tampa Bay will have to rely on the pass. Not good. The Colts rank 8th in opponent passer rating, while the Bucks rank 26th. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in penalties, while the Colts rank 16th. This line should be minus 3!
The Calgary Flames have been doing a better job defending against shots this season, ranking 14th compared to the New York Islanders, who rank 29th. Additionally, the Flames have been averaging 32.4 shots per game, while New York has been allowing 34.8 shots per game, making this 30/30 angle very profitable. Moreover, Calgary has a plus-57 shot differential, while the Islanders have a minus-63 shot differential this season. Let's ride with the Flames!
Sam LaPorta has gone over this number in six of nine games this season. In last week's victory, Laporta had just 40 receiving yards. He's 3-0 to the over after accumulating less than 41 yards. Chicago ranks 22nd defending tight ends, allowing 53 yards per game. My model projects 57.5 receiving yards in what should be a high-scoring matchup. Indoor game which means no rain or wind.
The Seattle Seahawks are tied for the NFC West's top spot. In their next four games, they will play against San Francisco twice, as well as Dallas and Philadelphia. Seattle has a negative point differential while playing the 29th most demanding schedule. On the other hand, the Rams are coming off their Bye week and are highly motivated after losing three consecutive games straight up and against the spread while playing the eighth-hardest schedule. The team will be the healthiest it's been since week one. The Rams rank 10th in third-down conversion percentage, while Seattle ranks 30th in third-down defense. Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll, having won four of the past six meetings. More of the same!
The Houston Texans have an impressive 5-0 record when taking points, but they have yet to cover a spread in any of their three games where they were favored. Last Sunday, Kyler Murray returned to the field and significantly impacted the Cardinals' performance. His ability to read defenses and extend drives with his legs is off the charts. The Texans' listed 18 players on Wednesday’s injury report including several key starters. The Texans have allowed the 31st most fantasy points against opposing tight ends which could lead to a big game for emerging tight end Trey McBride. Houston has a massive division game against Jacksonville on deck. Also, I like fading teams & players after record setting performances.
Mark Andrews has averaged 59.4 receiving yards over his past ten games. He had a relatively low total of 44 receiving yards against the Cleveland Browns and has gone over 55.5 in six of his last ten games. The Bengals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points against opposing tight ends. With Ronnie Stanley out, expect many quick passes that should add up quickly.
The Vancouver Canucks are facing a tough schedule spot. They have just played three consecutive road games, followed by one home game, and now they are on the road again. After playing against the New York Islanders on Wednesday night, they must travel 602 miles. Currently, Calgary has a plus-40 shot differential, while the Canucks are at minus-23. Additionally, the Flames have a strong record of 18-6 against the Canucks in Calgary, which is hard to ignore.
Last year's game between Oregon State and Washington was intense. Oregon State initially took the lead, but Washington made a comeback and won the game with a field goal in the last eight seconds. QB Michael Penix Jr. had to complete 52 passes to accumulate 298 yards due to Oregon State's defense. Washington's defense is struggling, ranking 122nd against the pass and 67th in yards per play. In contrast, Oregon State is a top-20 scoring offense and ranks 16th in yards per play. QB DJ Uiagalelei brings big-game experience from his time at Clemson. Rain is expected during the game, which should benefit the Beavers, who own the better offensive and defensive lines. I like the home team!
I would make this line closer to -165. The Boston Bruins average 31.6 shots on goal, while the Buffalo Sabres allow 30.8 shots per game. This 30/30 angle has been very profitable. Additionally, the Bruins rank 15th in face-off win percentage, while the Sabres rank 31st. Based on this, I like the road team's chances in this game, especially considering the great price.
The Oilers have hit rock bottom after losing 3-2 as -345 home chalk despite outshooting the San Jose Sharks 41-18 on Thursday. Edmonton is ranked first in shots per game (34.8), whereas the Seattle Kraken is ranked 21st in shots allowed per game (31.6). This 30/30 angle is very profitable. The Oilers own a plus-62 shot differential, while the Kraken are minus-12 this season. Connor McDavid hasn't scored a goal in a career-high seven straight games. Seattle upset the defending Stanley Cup Champions and will play the Avalanche again on Monday. It is interesting to note that Seattle has played two more games than Edmonton. I have a strong preference for the visiting team!
Last week, NC State clinched bowl eligibility against Miami, even though they were outgained for the second straight game after upsetting Clemson. Wake Forest and NC State recently played at Duke, and the turnover margin was neutral in both matchups. Wake Forest lost by only three points despite outgaining the Blue Devils 400-267. On the other hand, the Wolfpack lost by 21 points despite outgaining Duke just 305-301. Wake Forest has won four out of six games this season on turf, while NC State will be playing its first game on turf in 2023. The Wolfpack are 3-10 against the spread on the road, including 0-3 this season. Wake Forest has won and covered their last home game in three straight seasons.