Since trading Jimmy Butler to the Warriors on February 6, 2025, the Miami Heat went 12-17 in the remainder of the regular season, including 4-7 on the road. The Miami Heat struggled offensively after the trade, ranking 23rd in offensive rating and lacking a clear focal point. The Bulls swept the Heat 3-0 during the regular season, including two wins at home. Josh Giddey and Coby White have outperformed the Miami guards, while the Bulls' Nikola Vucevic has played better than Bam Adebayo. The Bulls' youth and speed will out-match the older Heat, as the Bulls rank 9th in average age at 25.5 years, while Miami is 27th at 27.5 years. My model has the Bulls favored by 4.1, with Josh Giddey good to go.

On April 5th, Vegas defeated the Flames 3-2 in overtime at the Scotiabank Saddledome. Winning consecutive games against the same team at an identical venue within 14 days is challenging. The Golden Knights have defeated Calgary in three straight games; however, the Flames won both previous meetings against Vegas at home, outscoring them 6-2 and outshooting them in both games, 71-57. The potential absence of Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo could significantly impact Vegas, as both are key contributors on offense and defense. Vegas has absorbed 1,802 hits (5th most), while Calgary has received the 6th fewest (1,527). Calgary's urgency, along with Vegas' potential injury concerns and their secured playoff spot, gives the Flames an advantage.

Seth Jarvis has been performing well in his last ten games, averaging 4.1 shots on goal with an 80% success rate on the over. At home this season, he has averaged 3.16 shots on goal, exceeding this mark 68.42% of the time. This represents a significant improvement compared to his overall season average of 2.82 shots per game. The Maple Leafs are missing key defensemen Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe, which could open up more shooting lanes for Jarvis. Additionally, Toronto has allowed an average of 29.1 shots on goal per game over their last 10 contests. Carolina aims to set a franchise record for home victories, keeping them motivated.

The Minnesota Wild got Kirill Kaprizov back, and he tallied two goals in an 8-7 up-and-down overtime win against the Sharks on Wednesday. That was the Wild's second consecutive overtime victory following their win against the Stars on Sunday. Minnesota has a shot differential of -181 and a goal differential of -11, the worst among potential playoff teams. Calgary has a shot differential of +44 and outshot Minnesota (60-48) while winning both matchups this season. The Wild rank 28th in shots allowed, the worst among teams with winning records. The Flames are ranked fifth in Expected Save Percentage on unblocked shots, while Minnesota is ranked 16th. I like the home team at plus money.

The Jets played three consecutive road games, followed by one home game, and are now hitting the road again. It's always a tough travel spot, heightened by the Jets' 2-9 record in the last 11 meetings in Dallas. The Stars have lost two out of three meetings against the Jets this season despite outshooting them in every game, 89-74. The Jets have a -0.4 shot differential in road games, while Dallas has a +1.9 differential in home games. The Stars are on a season-high three-game losing streak and will be eager to perform well against the Jets, who are four points ahead of them in the Central Division standings.

Bryce Harper is up against Grant Holmes of the Atlanta Braves, who has recorded a hard-hit rate of 69.2% this season, placing him in the second percentile. Harper has not hit a Dinger in his last nine games following his opening-day homer. Last season, Harper hit 21 of his 30 home runs against right-handed pitchers. He has hit six home runs in 45 at-bats against the Braves' current bullpen. The ball should carry closer to normal with mid-60s temps and low-60s air density.

This will be the Golden Knights' third road game in four days and at high altitude. Teams have split two meetings this season, with Colorado dominating in shots on goal, 66-40. Tomas Hertl (59 points in 70 games) has just been ruled OUT for Vegas, while Colorado's Martin Necas (26 points in 27 games with the Avs) has a chance to play. Colorado sits four points behind Vegas for the third seed out West. The Avalanche have a record of 11-4 after two days of rest and aim to end their two-game home losing streak.

Both teams are coming in with two big wins against Conference foes. This will be the third game in four days for the Warriors facing a team that has lost three of four meetings this season (0-4 ATS). The Rockets will be highly motivated in this game. Houston ranks first in scoring defense since March 6, allowing just 107.8 points per game, while also sitting third overall in offense, averaging 121.4 points per game. The second game back at home after a long road trip can sometimes be a sleepy spot. I like the road dog.

Alex DeBrincat has surpassed 2.5 shots in 60% of his last 25 games, averaging 3.3 per game. He is 2-0 in games after failing to exceed 2.5 shots in two consecutive matches, and he has a perfect 4-0 record in his last four attempts after not reaching 2.5 shots at home. DeBrincat is Detroit's leading scorer, with 34 goals this season, playing a crucial role in the Red Wings' offense. The Panthers rank third in penalty minutes, and DeBrincat excels against short-handed teams. Florida played on Saturday, which might lead to a sluggish performance on the blue line. Alex over 2.5 on my model should be -139.

The Boston Red Sox are back for their home opener after playing seven road games in eight days. I'm familiar with Walker Buehler from his time with the Dodgers, and he isn't performing at his best. Last season, he pitched 75.1 innings and had a 5.81 ERA. Batters hit .289 against him after he missed all of 2023. Let's take advantage of the Cardinals' strong offense against Walker. The Red Sox have not seen Erick Fedde that much, and he has performed well since last September. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of five starts, including his first outing of 2025. In the other start, Fedde was "human", giving up three earned runs. Solid plus money line.

Sam Bennett has hit the over on 2.5 shots in 66.67% of his last 15 games. Over his last 20 games, he has averaged 3.45 shots on goal, further solidifying his ability to exceed this line. Bennett has hit the over on this line in 64.79% of games this season, with an average of 3.2 shots on goal. He has been even more reliable when playing on the road, hitting the over in 68.57% of games, with an average of 3.0 shots on goal. Bennett only had two shots on goal when these teams played on Monday. The Montreal Canadiens rank 15th in defense against centers and 24th in shots allowed, while Florida is ranked third in generating shots.

Nathan MacKinnon has been dominant against the Calgary Flames, scoring in six straight home games against them. Calgary’s defense ranks 20th in Expected Goals Against, and their penalty kill is 26th in the league (74.8%). MacKinnon, who anchors Colorado’s top power-play unit, averages 4.5+ shots on goal at home and nearly 23 minutes of ice time per game. He has tallied 21 goals in 38 home games compared to 9 goals in 36 road tilts.

This matchup will be the Volunteers' sixth game in 14 days, while Kentucky has played two fewer games during the same period. The Wildcats have already defeated the Volunteers twice this season. They excelled in their shooting, primarily because Kentucky can shoot effectively over Tennessee with longer bodies. The Volunteers are at a disadvantage in size, ranking 189th in average height compared to Kentucky's 22nd ranking. Expect a close, high-scoring game, with Kentucky's experience in tight situations giving them a slight edge to win or at least cover the spread. The Wildcats have played the tougher non-con (No. 79 vs. 204) and overall schedules (No. 3 vs. No. 12). Kentucky is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that allow <67 points. Super strong systems on the underdog.

The Washington Capitals are looking for revenge after the Minnesota Wild defeated them in a shootout in Washington. The Capitals are ranked 10th in shots allowed per game and have a shot differential of +29. In contrast, the Wild are ranked 27th in shots allowed, with a negative shot differential of -180. Washington is tied for the league lead in goal differential at +77, while Minnesota sits at -9 for the season. I like the road team, which is backed by a profitable system and season-long metrics.

Both teams should be in the playoff hunt all season long. Garrett Crochet makes his debut for Boston against 35-year-old Nathan Eovaldi. The leading Cy-young candidate for the Red Sox has allowed zero extra-base hits, holding the Rangers' current roster to a .595 OPS in 18 at-bats. The Red Sox have 11 extra-base hits with a .769 OPS in 84 at-bats against Eovaldi. Crochet's stuff+ of 113 was much higher than Eovaldi's +100 last season. This is a great price, considering the significant difference in the pitching matchups.