Already in a dead zone, the line may hit -5 before kickoff, so let’s hop on the Seahawks now and buy down to -4 (-115) if possible. The NFC Championship game served as the de facto Super Bowl, and nothing the Patriots did in the playoffs changed that perspective. Seattle should own the line of scrimmage and take a double-digit lead into the fourth quarter (eye the prop about three straight scores for one team), holding onto it by taking down Drake Maye repeatedly. Kenneth Walker III will take the pressure off Sam Darnold, and AJ Barner should serve as a safe target to the boundaries. (A tease with the under is not the worst value. And remember: Tails never fails.)

You rarely find a massive edge picking a winner in the biggest game of the NFL season and this year is no different. That being said I still think the Pats offer some upside here at 4.5 or better at a reduced price tag so I'll jump into that end of the pool. New England's offense hasn't been great this postseason but they've also faced elite defenses in inclement weather. I believe the coaching experience on the Pats sideline gives their O a path to success today. Defensively I'll also make the case that the Pats stop unit is peaking at the exact right time. Small bet, nothing crazy on the dog in SB60

It's been four months since any team not named the Rams had major offensive success vs. Seattle's NFL-best defense. The Patriots' offense has looked shaky in the playoffs, a trend I expect to continue Sunday. Drake Maye has taken 15 sacks in three playoff games. While New England's defense has been just as impressive as Seattle's lately, the Seahawks have the more explosive offensive playmakers (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, Kenneth Walker). That should enable Seattle to make enough plays and win a 23-16 type of game.

Kayshon Boutte is New England's best deep threat; his ADOT is nearly 17 yards downfield. In Super Bowl 60, he'll face a Seahawks defense that plays a lot of 2-high safety coverage, protecting against the deep ball. Seattle gives up the fifth-fewest explosive passes (20-plus yards). Look for Boutte to make a big play or two but to stay Under on receptions.

Hollins has cleared this number in 6 of his last 7 games played. He has only had one playoff appearance because of injuries, but he's proven when healthy to be a reliable and preferred weapon for Drake Maye in the passing game. We see the veteran WR clearing this number with ease.

No running back has gone for more than 37 yards (RJ Harvey) in the playoffs against the New England defense. Although Walker is the most explosive RB they have yet faced and will have a bell-cow workload, we doubt he'll reach this number as we anticipate a competitive game script and a defensive effort that will limit Walker's numbers.

Maye has crushed this number in two of three playoff games and his rushing upside is always a threat for the Patriots offense. But we expect the Seattle defense to keep him in check and also feel that this line is a bit trappy. This particular prop was the first to see major movement and we're sensing it goes the way of the steam on the Jarrett Stidham passing prop 2 weeks ago. That is, under with room to spare.

These neutral-site odds suggest the game would be about -7.5 in Seattle, which no doubt would feel disrespectful to the Patriots. But many bettors are laying this number as if they are reading it out of a box score. The Seahawks are the better team, but the Patriots didn't arrive in the Super Bowl by accident. We believe the outcome lands on an early key number and find value in the points.

I'm not going to sit here and come at you with a major math model or say there's a huge match-up edge that's going to be exploited in this spot knowing Henderson's pass game usage has been next to non-existent this postseason. Put simply we're buying the dip here as a value bet at this current price. I expect the Pats to get a gamebreaker at least 1 touch in the passing game. Yards has been bet up to a point where it's out of range for me however receptions still offers upside despite a price that might scare some folks away.

The Patriots offense playoff success was minimized. In fact, their best offense was CJ Stroud setting them up, otherwise no one stood out in the prop market. A player I expect to have his moments is Rhamondre Stevenson out of the backfield. We’ve seen the Patriots scale back rookie Treyveon Henderson’s role. This is a scenario where I expect Stevenson’s volume to be enough even against a vaunted top defense that Seattle has. Take his receiving yards over.

The majority of props in the Super Bowl are low yardage. One that I expect to cash is AJ Barner of the Seattle Seahawks. He is coming off a minimized role in the playoffs with just two catches for thirteen yards. Not expecting a huge game, but for enough looks his way to cash a small prop. An area that Barner was effective as he cleared this in five of the final six regular season games.

Seattle allowed the fewest points in the regular season, with New England at No. 4. The Patrots' defense, with some help from Mother Nature, has been lights-out in the playoffs, having doled out just 26 points. Seahawks QB Sam Darnold is historically spotty in big games -- the last one notwithstanding -- and will miss Zach Charbonnet, half of their 1-2 RB punch. Pats QB Derek Maye was majestic in the regular season but has played wide-eyed in the post. Coaches Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald could go against type, but they are relatively conservative play-callers by nature, each leaning toward the ground game. While Super Bowls get out of hand , most signs point to modest scoring. (Let's hope for no overtime!)

This doesn’t feel great as a New York Giants fan taking the Patriots to cover but here we are. Seattle is the better overall team, but Mike Vrabel has an underdog is something that can't be ignored. Vrabel won a league-high 23 games has an underdog in his time in Tennessee and 4-2 ATS as one this season. The experienced play calling by Josh McDaniels, coaching in his 10th Super Bowl may prove to be a difference maker tonight, as Vrabel won three as a player, so they know what it takes to win. Not saying the Patriots are going to win but this should be closer than expected. Also, LeBron James picked Seattle to win, so we’ll roll with the Patriots and the points.

On paper, this game seems like an under with these two defenses. But, New England has gone over the total in six of their last eight games and the Seahawks have also gone over in five of their last seven. Seattle has scored 72 points combined in both playoff games and the Patriots have averaged over 27 points on the season. Sharps are on the under, public is on the over but the big game has over gone over 45 points in four of the last six and wouldn’t be shocked if this is a tight game in the mid 20’s late in the game to push this one over with a game winning field goal.

The sportsbooks have taken a ton of money on the Seahawks throughout the last two weeks, yet the line hasn't budged. Maybe they're confident in a Patriots cover at this number? Underdogs of 3.5 or more are 11-2 ATS in the Super Bowl over the last 25 years with more outright wins than losses, and the Patriots have a path to victory with how well the defense is playing plus the better quarterback and maybe better coach in the game (remember that Mike Vrabel knows the demands of a Super Bowl Sunday well while this is Mike Macdonald's first exposure to it). Feel free to try and wait for a 5 on gameday, but I'm perfectly fine with the 4.5 at -105 or better.

Simple logic for my play on the under here- Two excellent defenses, and two mastermind coaches that are elite game managers. The Seahawks defense was #1 in DVOA this season, allowing a league low 17.1 PPG. The Patriots offense scored just 21.5 PPG against top-10 defenses this year. Both QBs can be turnover-prone when pressured, and both defensive lines can dial up the heat. Sam Darnold and Seattle’s offense has thrived using play-action schemes, but the Patriots defense led the NFL in EPA per play against it. This total feels inflated because it’s the Super Bowl. If this were a regular season game, the number might be more like 43.5.

We don't have room to lost all of the reasons we prefer Seattle, but we'll try. Consider the odd dynamics in the AFC this season, wherein many contenders struggled and saw QBs get hurt, and schedule dynamics which all seemed to break in the Patriots' direction. This unique confluence of events helped get New England here but across the line is a different story. Recent Super Bowl underdog success (five straight covers) can be minimized a bit as recent "Supe" spreads have been so thin (1, 2, and 1 point the past three three), almost pick’em situations. Bottom line? The Seahawks have enough offense and definitely enough defense to avenge that grating Super Bowl XLIX loss eleven years ago. Play Seahawks

Cooper Kupp has recorded 4+ receptions in 11/12 career playoff games! His lone miss was in a 27-9 blowout win over the Vikings in 2024, in which his talents were not required. Kupp is a playoff vet who won the 2021 Super Bowl MVP. His experience could be key for Sam Darnold, with Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez likely matching up heavily against Seattle’s star WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kupp caught 5 receptions on 5 targets against the 49ers, and 4 on 6 targets against the Rams thus far in the postseason. At plus odds, there is great value on Kupp getting that 4th catch for us.

FanDuel. I do feel that Mack Hollins’ yards line is undervalued here. He comes into this game having cleared this line in 9 of his last 11 games. No injury designation, so I expect him back to his 70-75% snap share on pass plays. Over the last eight games the Patriots pass catchers were fully healthy, Hollins is first on the team with 380 yards, second in targets (40, Stefon Diggs has 41), and first in yards per route run amongst the starters, (2.03). It’s not the best matchup, but he should see more of Josh Jobe than Devon Witherspoon on the outside. I have him conservatively at five targets, with upside given the Patriots tough run matchup and gamescript. I’d bet this to 26.5.

Drake Maye has the highest scramble rate in the league this year, and it has continued in the postseason, as he has scrambled nine times for 125 yards. Maye is 4th in the NFL in scramble rate when pressured, and we expect him to have pressure on Sunday. The Seahawks are also 28th in scrambling yards allowed. Maye soared over his rushing prop and longest rush in two of the three postseason games. The rushing line has come up since opening, but I still like it and got plus money at 40+ rushing yards. But I also really like Maye's longest rush of 15 or more. But if you're concerned about kneel-downs, then I like approaching the longest rush over.

Hunter Henry has 33.3% of the targets in the red zone for the Patriots, which is the most of any tight end this season. Tight ends account for 28% of the receptions against the Seahawks this season. Essentially, against a tough defense, Henry has one of the better matchups for the Patriots' offense. So I love this price for the opportunity. I'm also sprinkling on Henry 1st touchdown.

This handicap for me is about where Diggs adds value in a game like this; as a chain mover operating at 8-10 yards. His days of being a run after the catch guy aren't there and New England has other threats in Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins that are used to stretch the field vertically. Diggs has value and plays a certain role in a game like this but I don't see it as him catching explosives in the passing game.

Sam Darnold doesn’t need designed runs here. The interior of the offensive line has been vulnerable, and pressure up the middle is what forces quarterbacks to take off rather than hang in the pocket or throw it away. You really only need one or two scramble situations to get close, and kneel-downs count as carries if this game plays to script late. Low number, multiple paths to cash, and a prop market that routinely underprices quarterback rushing attempts with non-mobile players.

We know that Drake Maye is going to use his legs to try and pick up first downs when needed, but no one is really talking about the other QB in the matchup. Darnold has had 3+ rush attempts in six of his last seven games, and with the Patriots getting creative at sending pressure during the playoffs, I believe it's likely he'll be on the move a couple times in this game, and he'll certainly not hesitate to try and pick up a first down if he sees open field. We could also hit this by virtue of end-game kneeldowns if the Seahawks do what's expected and win this game. I like getting plus odds value on this prop.

It's difficult to assess passing volume for the Patriots on the season as they have been involved in plenty of games where the offense hasn't been pushed. I don't think that will be the case on Sunday as we're likely looking at a neutral or negative game script for the Patriots. Josh McDaniels has had two weeks to gameplan for this one, and I think we'll see Maye get the ball out faster than normal and exploit the short area to move the chains.

Cooper Kupp has seen more targets in the two playoff games compared to this season. Kupp saw 20.8% target share together in the playoffs. He had five and four receptions in the last two playoff games. And he'll mostly avoid Christian Gonzalez since he'll run a lot of routes in the slot. I believe Sam Darnold will look to his trusty vet often in the most important game of the year. I like getting plus money for something we've seen in both playoff games already.

We know the matchup on the ground is very difficult for Kenneth Walker on Sunday against the Patriots. That is the reason why Walker's under rushing is a popular pick. But Walker has still been active in the passing game. He has a 13.9% target share over the last three games. And in the Conference Championship, he ran a similar number of routes to George Holani and had the same target share as Holani (11.1%). Walker has gone over this receiving line in both playoff games and averages 11.1 yards per reception in the playoffs. I think getting Walker open in space through the passing game will be key for the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

In 16 games against quarterbacks not named Matthew Stafford, the Seahawks have recorded an interception in 12 of them. Maye has thrown exactly one interception in half his games this season. As I expect the Patriots to be in chase mode, I’m betting on at least one crucial turnover from the young New England QB.

This one is interesting. Henderson’s rushing prop is over/under 18.5 yards, while his receiving prop is O/U 3.5 yards. So how is the combined number 3.5 yards higher? I’m not sure how the rookie’s snap count has gone from 26 to 25 to 4 in the playoffs but here we are. I expect him to play at least 20 snaps in the Super Bowl and receive a minimum of eight touches as we saw in 16 of 20 games to date. If I’m correct on the touches, Henderson needs to average 3.5 yards per touch to hit this prop. I’ll take that chance with such a dynamic player.

I’m basing this pick on the volume uptick the veteran wide receiver has seen in the last couple games. Kupp has a 22% target share in the postseason, so let’s say Sam Darnold meets his attempts projection of 30, that’s 6-7 targets for Kupp. He already has topped this yardage line in both postseason games and has a tendency to be clutch in his career. Don’t forget his MVP performance in Super Bowl LVI. I’m not asking for the world here, just three catches for 35 yards would get it done for us. I’ll go somewhat bold and say that Kupp tops 40 yards based on the projected volume and as a security blanket for Sam Darnold.

The Seahawks may have the league’s top defense, but they’ve had a tough time stopping tight ends all year, ranking near the bottom in that category. Hunter Henry is Drake Maye’s primary safety valve near the goal line. He commands a 35.5% red zone target share, which ranks 2nd among all NFL tight ends. With Seattle’s star cornerbacks taking away the outside options, Maye will have to look for Henry over the middle. At +230 odds, the betting market says Henry has about a 31% chance to score, but I think it’s closer to 40% given how Seattle has struggled in this area. That means the sportsbook’s edge (hold percentage) is smaller than usual here, making this bet even more appealing.

FanDuel. Seahawks tight-end AJ Barner has emerged as a tush-push option for the Seahawks. With 11 carries this season, he’s cleared this line nine times, with a 91% first-down rate on his carries. He leads the Seahawks in rushing attempts on 3rd/4th and 1 (all 11 of his carries) - the injured Zach Charbonnet is second with seven. Notably, Sam Darnold only has five, George Holani two, and Kenneth Walker (surprisingly) with zero. Opponents are 10/10 against the Patriots in QB sneak first downs this season. This likely comes down to whether or not we get a short-yardage opportunity for Seattle - but I do have Barner with a better than 50% chance of earning a rush attempt. I’d bet this to -105.

I expect this to be a slow-starting game for both offenses as they feel out two elite defenses, so much so that one prop from my 60 picks article is on the first touchdown to be scored in the second quarter. In that type of environment, I don't see three TDs being scored by these teams in the first half, so I'm willing to take this total all the way down to 20.5 and get plus odds on the Under.

The Patriots aren't being given much of a chance in this game, but I see their defense as being good enough to limit Seattle's scoring and give Drake Maye a chance at the win. I expect scoring to be tough in the first half after the long lead-up to kickoff, with nerves at an all-time high in the first quarter. I believe there's only three points of difference between these teams on a neutral field, and while I wait to see the best number I can get on the Pats in the full game, I can't pass up the opportunity to grab the hook on the first-half line.

George Holani was activated off IR before the NFC championship and saw himself firmly entrenched as RB2 behind Kenneth Walker. Holani's biggest upside came in passing situations where he ran 14 routes in the game compared to Walker's 15 and served as the primary choice in the 2 minute drill. Holani's pass protection skills are better than Walker's and should give him plenty of 3rd down reps in the game to leak out against the Pats pass defense for a few grabs. This number has run a bit but there's still some upside at current price in the big game

AJ Barner had a low 12.7% target per route run rate in Seattle's past four games. That percentage shrinks down to 0% against man-to-man coverage, which is what the Patriots tend to play a high amount of. We've also seen Barner catch two or fewer passes in each of three straight -- pretty big games for Seattle. Part of his problem has also been Barner's role as a blocker as roughly 15% of his snaps on pass plays have resulted in him blocking, not running a route. And if that's not enough, the return of rookie Elijah Arroyo and the emergence of veteran receiver and short-area target Cooper Kupp could put a clamp on the number of opportunities he gets from Sam Darnold.

He has the hot hand, but Rhamondre Stevenson's had 15-plus rush attempts in just three games all year! One was a blowout win over the lowly Titans, and the other two were his most recent games when he helped ice the Pats wins against the Texans and Broncos. Stevenson will see a Seahawks run defense that's yielded 3.3 yards per rush allowed and z-e-r-o explosive runs in its past four games. That suggests Stevenson won't be a big factor on the ground which in turn would mean the Pats have no reason to feed him the ball. That would follow how other teams have operated against the Seahawks -- just five running backs in 2025 had more than 14 carries against the NFC Champs.

This is obviously the biggest game of the year for both teams, and big games are where Hollins shows up the most. Much has been made about the Patriots' easy schedule, but when they played the Buccaneers, Ravens and in the second game against the Bills, Hollins recorded his three performances with at least eight targets this year. He also had seven against a tough Browns defense. Hollins returned from the IL in the AFC Championship to catch two passes for 51 yards in a game where Drake Maye threw for just 86 yards total. Hollins has outperformed Stefon Diggs in several key games this year and could do so again here.

FanDuel. Stefon Diggs has stayed under this line in 11/20 games this season, with an average depth of target of 8.3 yards. When both Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte are active (13.5 and 17.4 aDOT, respectively), Diggs is under in 9/14 games, with an aDOT of 7.7. And in those 14 games, Diggs is fourth on the team in deep targets. Half of his routes are out of the slot (6.9 aDOT) - only two catches in the 14 games subset cleared 18+ yards out of the slot. And on the perimeter, he’ll face the Seahawks boundary DBs who’ve only allowed 27 catches of 15+ air yards on the outside in 19 games.

Seahawks backup running back George Holani ran 17 routes last week (one more than Kenneth Walker), catching three of four targets for 27 yards. The Boise State product suffered a hamstring injury in November but returned for the NFC title game. He earned praise from Mike Macdonald for being ready to make an immediate impact. Holani, who is excellent in pass protection, played 23 snaps (34.3 percent snap share). That included work in the two-minute drill. The Patriots allow the eighth-most targets to opposing running backs. Look for Holani to catch at least two passes Sunday.

The Seahawks defense doesn't get talked about as much as the offense, but this defense was No. 1 in the NFL with 3.8 yards per rush allowed and No. 1 in points allowed at 17.1. We’ve got two QBs who are first-time Super Bowl starters and two defensive coaches who are first-time Super Bowl leaders. This is one Super Bowl that I don't think either offense has the success that we usually think of, particularly Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense. The Seahawks' defense keeps this game under. I think a score like 27-16 sounds appropriate.

Drake Maye led all quarterbacks, taking 62 sacks on the year, regular season and postseason combined. And now we’ve got a sack-hungry Seattle defense that is starving to get a taste of Maye. The guy who has my immediate attention is DeMarcus Lawrence. The Seahawks have played playoff teams in their last five games, and Lawrence had a sack in three of his last four starts. I'm feeling pretty good about Lawrence getting at least a half-sack with Maye as the starting quarterback.

Seattle wants to be conservative but also show some new moves with some new runners, including Rashid Shaheed. In their last game against the Rams, they tried one run, and he got 0 yards, but in his first playoff game, he had two attempts for 27 yards. Zach Charbonnet played that game, and he is out with an injury. They can only run Kenneth Walker so much before running out of options, and using the dynamite explosiveness of Shaheed could be the secret weapon. That’s what makes him so valuable. Use him. Get him involved in the gameplan. He's a game changer. He had 9 carries for 69 yards in the regular season and 3 for 27 yards in the two postseason games.

TreVeyon Henderson only got three carries in the AFC Championship versus Denver but this number feels like an overreaction to that game. It's clear Rhamondre Stevenson is the Patriots lead back in the playoffs, although Henderson still easily cleared this total against the Chargers and Texans when he got 21 combined carries. Henderson is also a big-play threat, so he doesn't need a lot of carries to reach 17 yards. The rookie RB went over this number in 16 of 20 games (80%). I'll take a shot on a total I believe is a few yards too low in the Super Bowl.

Kenneth Walker rushed 19 times for 62 yards in the NFC Championship Game. He's arguably facing a tougher run defense in the Super Bowl. Over their past four games (playoffs plus Week 18 vs. Miami), New England has faced 93 rush attempts and allowed a total of five yards before contact. Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga and Christian Barmore have been stout up front, with safeties Craig Woodson and Jaylinn Hawkins stepping up in run defense. Linebacker Jack Gibbens would be an adequate replacement if Robert Spillane (ankle) can't go. With New England giving up 3.1 yards per carry in the postseason, I bet against Walker having a big day on the ground.

Barner has gotten very little attention in the 2 playoff games for the Seahawks so far, catching just 3 balls for 15 yards. I believe this sets up nicely for him to come in under the radar somewhat for this game. We have to figure that JSN will be the focal point of the New England defense, limiting his output as much as possible. This could create opportunities for Barner, who caught 6 touchdown passes this season and also scored a rushing TD. With the opponent's defense dedicating its attention so heavily on Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker, I like Barner to have a successful game and find his way into the end zone.

Maye has not been his MVP self in the postseason. Conditions have been difficult but so have been the defenses he's faced and it won't get any easier vs Seattle. In 3 games, he is 43 of 77 with 6 fumbles (3 lost), 2 interceptions, and he's been sacked 15 times. Even if his shoulder is healthy, I still feel he deserves to be a solid favorite to throw an interception. The O-Line hasn't been able to protect him as well and he has faced the best pass defenses in the league. Chargers No. 1, Houston 2, Denver 4, and Seattle No. 5 as far as Defensive Passer Rating rankings in the NFL. I'm betting he will slip at least once again on Sunday.

The Seahawks and Patriots were the top teams in each conference, with each only losing three games, and each covering 14 games on the season. The Patriots went 9-0 in away games, and the Seahawks went 8-1 in road games. Seattle won nine games in a row, with the last five games being against playoff teams and covering the last four. Drake Maye has looked shaky over the last few weeks, as has his offensive line. The Seahawks were No. 1 in the NFL against the rush number, 6th in total yards allowed (293.4), and No. 1 in total points (17.1) allowed. The real betting hasn't begun. I think this line moves through 5 and 5.5 quickly and closes 6.

I'm waiting on a Super Bowl prediction, but I think I know where I'm going, and I think I know where Kenneth Walker is going. Without Zach Charbonnet, now, Walker is going to carry the ball at least 20 times in this game, get over 125 yards rushing and receiving combined, and at least one TD scored, which sets me up for quite a few props. The Seahawks have won 9 straight games, and in the last three, Walker has gotten over 111 yards in all three. Walker has been on it in four of his last five games, and the last five games were all playoff teams. Walker over 98.5 rushing and receiving yards.

Key to playing the game this way is waiting. Betting the dog on the ML is very common when it comes to Super Bowls. By the time we get to game day, it is likely that the ML on the favorite will be less than -200, so be patient and see if you can get a preferred price. I would not be surprised if Seattle covered the spread as well. I personally made the number 5 with 1 point included for "Home Field Advantage." The Seahawks have played here for 14-seasons, they and their fans are much more familiar with this venue. My stats crunch comes to 6.5 - but again, I will play Seattle ML as I believe, simply, they are the better team.

While Maye averaged a respectable rushing output during the 17-game season (450 yards on 103 attempts), his usage has spiked in the postseason. In the AFC Divisional Round against the Texans, Maye broke a 37-yard run , and in the AFC Championship against the Broncos, a 28-yard scramble set up the go-ahead score. The Seahawks boast the No. 1 Pass Defense DVOA. Their coverage unit, led by cornerbacks Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, is elite at blanketing receivers. When coverage is tight, play extension becomes the quarterback's only option. Coverage sacks turn into scrambles for athletic quarterbacks. Maye, at 6'4" and 225 lbs, is difficult to bring down in the open field.

One of the most striking findings my research has uncovered for Super Bowl LX is how the Patriots’ top-tier run defense is likely to boost Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s target volume. When Seattle’s run game stalls, they pivot to the passing attack, and Smith-Njigba soaks up targets, commanding an eye-popping 36.2% target share and a 44.4% first-read target share. The Patriots employ a defensive scheme that relies heavily on man coverage to disrupt timing. Smith-Njigba excels in this environment. He ranks second in the Next Gen Stats era with 3.6 yards per route run (YPRR), trailing only Tyreek Hill's historic 2023 season. His ability to separate instantly from slot corners makes him the "panic button" for quarterback Sam Darnold.

This is a very popular prop, but for good reason. While the Seahawks' defense is historically great, every unit has an Achilles' heel. For Seattle, it is defending the tight end position. This creates a massive schematic mismatch that favors Patriots veteran Hunter Henry. Despite ranking No. 1 in Pass Defense DVOA, the Seahawks rank a dismal 29th in the league against covering tight ends. This disparity is a function of their defensive scheme, which prioritizes shutting down perimeter wide receivers with elite cornerbacks (Woolen/Witherspoon) and stopping the run with aggressive linebackers. The line of 36.5 yards is exceptionally low for a primary target in a pass-heavy game script. Two receptions down the seam could clear this total alone.

Opposing tight ends averaged 8.32 targets versus the Seahawks, sixth-most. But in terms of target share, Seattle stands as the NFL's top tight-end funnel. The Seahawks stuff the run and possess an elite secondary that blankets wideouts. That will prompt Drake Maye to look for his No. 1 tight end early and often. When Henry has faced tight-end funnel defenses this season, he typically draws a ton of volume.

Two top defenses plus a New England offense that has struggled this postseason is not the right formula for an over line. In their last six games combined against teams not named the Rams, Seattle has surrendered a combined 44 points (7.3 PPG). Meanwhile, New England’s defense has given up only 9.2 PPG over their last five games. While I think Seattle will score at least once on defense / special teams, I would be mildly surprised if this one went over the total.

I can’t believe I’m betting on Sam Darnold to win a Super Bowl. But he proved my NFC Championship prediction wrong with an awesome performance against the Rams. So much for the oblique injury after all. Without short fields this postseason, New England’s offense has done next to nothing and it will be the same story against an elite Seattle defense. The Patriots have been a great story this season but it won’t be a fun ending. Hopefully this isn’t the last time we see Drake Maye in a Super Bowl a la Dan Marino in his second year (also in a game played outside of San Francisco). Seattle rolls to their second Super Bowl championship. Seahawks 27, Patriots 13.

I didn't expect the opportunity to bet Kenneth Walker rushing yards under a total priced in the high 70's but here we are. New England's run defense is damn stout with the return of Milton Williams and I don't expect that to change in two weeks. Kenneth Walker is being asked to take on a bigger workload in the absence of Zach Charbonnet however we saw his effectiveness wane against the Rams as his touches increased, Walker is a dynamic playmaker and he'll be leaned into for sure although it might be more as a receiver than runner vs this Pats defense.

Honestly may not even watch the Super Bowl as I just don't care about either of these teams and I surely don't care about Bad Bunny at halftime. I'm sure the Notebook or something Hugh Grant is on as oppo programing on Feb. 8. It is an outdoor game so maybe we get some elements in Santa Clara. But giving Mike Macdonald two weeks to prepare for sack- and fumble-prone Drake Maye makes me think Seattle will keep that New England offense in check. That offense did very little in the AFC title game. And I'm sure the Pats' defense will have some surprises for Sam Darnold, too. Last 46.5 on our board. Our model has 44 points. Sagarin has 45.2.

The Patriots have endured a monster run of defenses to get to the Super Bowl, and waiting for them is the league's No. 1 scoring defense. The last opponent to get to 300 yards against Seattle besides the Rams was the Cardinals in Week 10, and the Seahawks have allowed two total touchdowns in six games against non-Rams opponents since Week 12. Drake Maye had one game with a sub 60% completion rate heading into the playoffs and has been below that number in all three games. The Seahawks should excel against the Patriots' offensive line and continue to keep Maye uncomfortable, and Sam Darnold is playing well enough to not expect the Pats offense to get short fields. I love getting this above 20.

This is an absolutely brutal matchup for Kenneth Walker against a New England front seven that has been dominant. With a healthy Milton Williams and Robert Spillane in the fold, no one has been able to effectively run against the Patriots. I am jumping on this early as I anticipate this line moving south as we approach kickoff. I consider this New England run defense to be the very best in the league. The Patriots season long metrics don’t reflect how truly elite their run defense is.

The Seahawks' defense is tough but the one area the Patriots can exploit is utilizing the tight ends. Seattle allowed the sixth most yards to tight ends during the regular season. In two playoff games, Jake Tonges put up 59 yards and Colby Parkinson went for 62. Hunter Henry went over 36.5 yards 11 times this season and I expect him to be a big part of the Pats' offensive gameplan. Look for this number to go up in the next two weeks, so I recommend taking it early.