Megan's Picks (5 Live)
Last week, I wrote up De'Von Achane's longest rush, and he soared past his line. In fact, he's gone past his longest rush line in six of his last seven games. It only went up one yard from last week's line. Achane faces a depleted Jets' defense that gave up 248 rushing yards last week to the Falcons. Achane surpassed this longest rush line when he faced the Jets earlier this season. I like him to soar past this longest rush line again on Sunday.
It is hard to trust Justin Jefferson because of his quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Jefferson only as two touchdowns on the season because of the poor quarterback play. But if there were ever a week to find the end zone again, it would be against this Washington defense, which gives up a 7.9% touchdown rate to wide receivers. Washington has given up the 5th most touchdowns to wide receivers this season (14). Jefferson still has a high target rate from McCarthy (31%). And now we get Jefferson priced at +155 in a buy-low spot. I like this price for Jefferson to find the end zone on Sunday.
Tyler Warren has had a couple of down games the last couple of weeks, but that has a lot to do with the matchup, and he was playing through an illness last Sunday. This Sunday, Warren has a great matchup against the Jaguars' defense that gives up the 4th most receiving yards to tight ends this season. This line is very attainable for Warren to go over this week, and I'm considering laddering Warren to 70+ receiving yards for plus money.
Brenton Strange has multiple things working in his favor this week. His routes went up last week and he ran 81% of the routs last Sunday. Just like Tyler Warren has a good matchup, so does his counterpart, Strange, on the other side. The Colts' defense gives up the 2nd most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Strange has gone over this line in five of the seven games he's played this season. I like him to soar over this line again on Sunday.
After injuring his ankle on Thanksgiving, Amon-Ra St. Brown is still questionable and likely will be a gametime decision Thursday night. But he has not practiced this week, and I think it's unlikely that he'll be able to play. If St. Brown were active, you would have to imagine his snaps would be limited. Enter Jameson Williams, the Lions WR1, who stepped up for seven receptions, 144 receiving yards, and a touchdown on Thanksgiving after St. Brown left the game. He had a 37% target share last Thursday. Now, Williams gets the Cowboys' defense that has given up the 4th most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. In a high total, potential shootout, I love this price for Williams to go over this line.
CeeDee Lamb has a great matchup Thursday night, as the Lions' defense gives up the 2nd most touchdowns to wide receivers (19). Lamb is 2nd among wide receivers in endzone targets since he returned (8). He has scored a touchdown in two of his last three games. With an excellent matchup, high total, and close spread, I like this price for Lamb to find the endzone again. If I'm being honest, I like Pickens ATD price too, and will likely parlay them together as well.
Jaylen Warren has an excellent matchup on Sunday, as the Bills are a run funnel. The Bills' defense allows 5.3 yards per carry and 118.4 yards per game to enemy running backs. The Bills are even worse against the run vs. 12 and 13 personnel, which the Steelers run very often. Warren has exceeded this rushing prop in five of his last six games, and I expect him to exceed it on Sunday, too.
We all know that De'Vonn Achane is an explosive running back. Achane has rushes of 10 or more yards on 17.7% of his attempts this season. He has exceeded this longest rush prop line in seven of his 11 games this season. He has exceeded this line, usually well above this line, in five of his last six games. He has a great matchup against the Saints' defense, so I look for Achane to soar past his longest rush prop again on Sunday.
George Kittle has played only 6.5 games this season. Yet he has comparable red zone targets (nine) to tight ends that have played all season. He has caught all nine of his red zone targets this season for four touchdowns. Kittle has scored four touchdowns in three of the six games since he returned to the lineup in October. The Browns are a good defense, but they have allowed a 6.5% touchdown rate to tight ends. I like the price we are getting at +170 for Kittle to find the endzone again on Sunday.
The is a clear funnel to attack this year with tight ends. Does the team playing the Bengals have a good tight end that gets red zone targets? If the answer is yes, bet their Anytime Touchdown. The Bengals have given up 13 touchdowns to tight ends this season. The next closest team has given up seven touchdowns to the tight end position. Mark Andrews is a prime example of this. He has a 27.3% target share in the red zone and eight endzone targets. I know this isn't an exciting ATD price, but we're still getting slightly plus money, which is a win. Now, let's cash a win with Andrews.