Megan's Picks (2 Live)
Last week, Kyren Williams played 63% of the snaps and had 25 touches. In Week 16, when these two teams met, Williams had 70% of the snaps. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, I think Sean McVay will continue to give Williams more snaps and touches. Williams was tied for 3rd with the number of carries inside the 5-yard line (18) among all running backs. We are getting a plus money price for a running back that gets a majority of the touches and high-value touches. I understand it's because of the defensive matchup. But Williams had a touchdown in Week 11 against the Seahawks. I like this price for him to find the endzone again Sunday.
Rhamonde Stevenson has 58.9% of the touches so far in the playoffs for the Patriots. He has played like a lead back too. He has 77 or more total scrimmage yards since Week 14 of the season on 65% of the snapes since then. The Broncos' just allowed 174 total yards to Bills' running backs last week. Since I like Stevenson's usage in both the run and pass game, I like approaching his rush + receiving line. I likely ladder him to 100+ rush + receiving yards, as he's hit that in three of the last four games.
Can Jarrett Stidham be the next Jeff Hostetler or Nick Foles? I'm not sure about that, but I do like him to go over his passing prop. I know, the line has gotten steamed up. But after more research, I still like it. And I'm laddering Stidham to 225+ Passing for plus money. Sean Payton has made it clear that he trusts "Stiddy". And the Broncos have been very pass-heavy to end the season. They have a +7.6% pass rate over expectation since Week 12. Based on Payton's trust of Stidham, RJ Harvey's inefficiency as a rusher, and the Patriots' strong rush defense, I believe the Broncos remain pass-heavy with "Stiddy". Stidham went over this line in all four of his prior NFL starts.
I'm wagering a half unit on Hunter Henry to find the endzone Sunday. Henry has 33% of the Patriots' redzone targets, which is highest among all tight ends in the NFL. Tight ends are also a good matchup against the Broncos, as we saw last week with Dalton Kincaid. Tight ends have 26% of the targets against the Broncos' defense. I like Henry's receiving line, but I like this plus money bet for a half unit too.
Colston Loveland has become Caleb Williams' go-to target late in the season and in the Wildcard round. Since Week 16 through the Wildcard game, Loveland has 26% target share and is averaging 88 receiving yards per game. I stayed away from Loveland in the Wildcard round due to what I thought was a difficult matchup against the Packers. He had eight catches for 147 yards. In a must-win playoff game, I'm going back to Loveland to go over this line. I'll likely ladder his line up to 80+ receiving yards.
I wrote up Davante Adams ATD last week, and he did not score, unfortunately. But I'm going back to the bet because of the player, the matchup, and the price. As I mentioned last week, Adams had the most touchdowns of any wide receiver this season, three more, actually (14). And he only played 14 games. While he did not score in his first playoff game with the Rams, I believe he will this week. The Bears gave up the 3rd most touchdowns to receivers this season (20). So we have the receiver with the most touchdowns this season against the team that gave up the 3rd most touchdowns to receivers. And the price is still only -118? Sign me up!
With George Kittle unfortunately out for the 49ers with a torn Achilles, Christian McCaffery becomes even more valuable as a receiver for Brock Purdy. In six full games this season without George Kittle, McCaffery averaged 68 receiving yards per game. He also went over this line in the games Kittle left early. That includes Week 1 against the Seahawks when he had 73 yards receiving. As strong as the Seahawks' defense is, they give up the most receptions to running backs and the 6th most receiving yards.
Kenneth Walker rushed for 97 yards against the 49ers in Week 18. He had a long run of 20 yards in that game. I like Walker to go over his longest rush, as he's an explosive running back known for picking up chunk gains. He went over this longest rush line in 11 of 17 games this season. The 49ers struggle against outside zone runs, which is Walker's bread and butter (38% of Walker’s runs this season have been outside zone). Look for him to exceed this line again on Saturday night.
Josh Allen has 16 total rushing touchdowns (anytime touchdowns) this season and postseason. With a very depleted, weak receiving core, Allen will need to play Superman and be the hero again if the Bills want to move on to the AFC Conference Championship. This is mostly about the price. Any player who has scored 16 times this season should have way more juice. I love the price and the liklihood the Allen finds the endzone again on Saturday.
We saw the explosive plays that the Steelers' secondary gave up to Zay Flowers in Week 18. Now we have Nico Collins in position to feast against this Steelers' secondary, which allows a 48.9% completion rate on throws 20 or more yards to receivers (31st). Collins has 37% of the Texans' air yards this season. He has gone over this longest reception prop in over half the games this season. I believe he is in a position to go over this line again on Monday night.
We think of TreVeyon Henderson as a dual-threat Patriots' running back. But in the last five games, it's been Rhamondre Stevenson who has gotten more of the targets and receiving work. That has given us an edge, in my opinion, as Stevenson's receiving line is set at a low 13.5. He's gone over this number and over 20 receiving yards in the last five games. I'm likely going to alt his line up to 20+ receiving yards.
I almost wrote up Trevor Lawrence ATD, as Lawrence has nine rushing touchdowns this season. I may still sprinkle on that. But I like Lawrence's rushing line. We typically see quarterbacks who do run, tend to take off and run more in the must-win playoffs. Lawrence has been effective scrambling and rushing this season, rushing for 359 yards and nine touchdowns. The Bills' defense is 29th in rushing yards given up to quarterbacks. So I'm going to lean into Lawrence's tendency to run more this season, the quarterback's tendency to run more in the playoffs, and the matchup for this bet.
The Jaguars have a good defense, but where they are weaker is against the tight end position. The Jaguars give up the 8th most touchdowns to the tight end position and a 5.7% touchdown rate (18th). Similar to how Josh Allen knew to target his tight ends against the Bengals (both Kincaid and Dawson Knox had touchdowns in that game), I think he'll know where to go in the redzone against the Jaguars, too. We're getting a great ATD price for Allen's true top receiving option.