Megan's Picks (2 Live)
Megan's Past Picks
Jaylen Warren has an excellent matchup on Sunday, as the Bills are a run funnel. The Bills' defense allows 5.3 yards per carry and 118.4 yards per game to enemy running backs. The Bills are even worse against the run vs. 12 and 13 personnel, which the Steelers run very often. Warren has exceeded this rushing prop in five of his last six games, and I expect him to exceed it on Sunday, too.
We all know that De'Vonn Achane is an explosive running back. Achane has rushes of 10 or more yards on 17.7% of his attempts this season. He has exceeded this longest rush prop line in seven of his 11 games this season. He has exceeded this line, usually well above this line, in five of his last six games. He has a great matchup against the Saints' defense, so I look for Achane to soar past his longest rush prop again on Sunday.
George Kittle has played only 6.5 games this season. Yet he has comparable red zone targets (nine) to tight ends that have played all season. He has caught all nine of his red zone targets this season for four touchdowns. Kittle has scored four touchdowns in three of the six games since he returned to the lineup in October. The Browns are a good defense, but they have allowed a 6.5% touchdown rate to tight ends. I like the price we are getting at +170 for Kittle to find the endzone again on Sunday.
The is a clear funnel to attack this year with tight ends. Does the team playing the Bengals have a good tight end that gets red zone targets? If the answer is yes, bet their Anytime Touchdown. The Bengals have given up 13 touchdowns to tight ends this season. The next closest team has given up seven touchdowns to the tight end position. Mark Andrews is a prime example of this. He has a 27.3% target share in the red zone and eight endzone targets. I know this isn't an exciting ATD price, but we're still getting slightly plus money, which is a win. Now, let's cash a win with Andrews.
The Cowboys play a high rate of zone coverage. Rice is targeted on 32% of his routes against zone coverage. That's why I like playing the reception angle. I think Patrick Mahomes will be able to keep feeding Rice on Thursday afternoon. Since Rice returned to the lineup in Week 7, he has had seven or more receptions in three of the five games he has played. This is a spot for him to exceed this line again, and I love the price we're getting on it as well.
Since head coach Dan Campbell has taken over offensive play-calling duties, Jahmyr Gibbs has seen an uptick in his target share and targets per routes run. In the last three weeks, Gibbs has averaged a 22.1% target share. Also, with Sam LaPorta now out for the Lions, Gibbs has really helped fill those vacated targets underneath. No matter the game script for the Lions, I like Gibbs to exceed this receiving line.
DeVonta Smith caught one pass for eight yards on Sunday night. But I expect a bounceback game here for Smith for multiple reasons. Setting aside the A.J. Brown drama with the Eagles, Smith has the better schematic matchup on Sunday. The Cowboys play a high rate of zone coverage, and Smith is targeted more and has a higher yards per route run against zone coverage. I also think the Cowboys' run defense has improved with the additions they made at the trade deadline. So I think the Eagles will be forced to throw more here. This is a very attainable line for Smith to fly over on Sunday.
We know Jahmyr Gibbs is an explosive running back, but we definitely want to pick our spots for when to target his longest rush over prop. Sunday against the Giants' defense is a great spot to target this prop. The Giants give up the most yards per carry to enemy running backs (5.7 YPC) and allow a whopping 55% success rate. I like Gibbs to fly past his longest rush prop on Sunday.
After a slow start to the season, Jameson Williams has scored a touchdown in four of the last five games. A few things are at play for why I like Williams to find the endzone again on Sunday. Sam LaPorta is out, so the targets are really condensed to Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Also, head coach Dan Campbell is now calling the plays and has been finding a way to get the ball in Williams' hands on more than just deep shots. The matchup is also great for Williams this week against the Giants' secondary. I think the Lions will score 35+, and I think Williams will be a part of that scoring.
Several factors are at play for me to like Chase Brown's receiving line over, and I'll likely ladder it. First, since Samaje Perine has been out the last two weeks, Brown's routes run and target share have skyrocketed. Brown has 28 and 75 receiving yards the past two weeks without Perine. Perine is doubtful for Sunday. Next, Ja'Marr Chase is out Sunday. I believe Brown will have to play the receiver role more, similar to Christian McCaffery's role when the 49ers' receivers were depleted. The Patriots have a tough run defense, but they give up the most receptions and the 8th most receiving yards to running backs this year. Finally, Joe Burrow was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. His return would boost Brown's receiving.
Hunter Henry has been feast or famine this season, with several games significantly over this receiving line and several games significantly under this line. This is a game and a matchup for Henry to exceed this line and potentially smash this line. We know we want to target tight ends against the Bengals. The Bengals give up the most receiving yards and the most touchdowns to tight ends this season. I'll be betting Henry's over receiving yards and his ATD, and I'm playing him in DFS.
The Bills' defense is allowing 5.4 yards per carry to running backs, which is 2nd worst in the NFL. Last week, the Bills gave up 202 all-purpose yards to the Bucs running backs. Woody Marks has gotten 10-18 carries the last five weeks and has taken over as the lead back for the Texans. Last week Marks handled 82% of the backfield touches. Marks was known for his receiving ability in college, and it's surprising the Texans don't use him more in the passing game. The reason I'm targeting Marks' rush + receiving line is to be protected no matter the game script. Marks has had four games of 20 or more receiving yards, so this line gives us multiple outs.
The Bengals' backup running back, Samaje Perine, is out with a high ankle sprain. This means Chase Brown will go back to his high-volume role he had last season and last week. I like betting Brown's rush + receiving because it gives multiple outs with his volume and doesn't rely on game script. Brown exceeded this rush + receiving line in the last three games with Joe Flacco under center, including the first matchup with the Steelers in October. No matter the game script for the Bengals, I like Brown to soar past this combo line.