Megan's Picks (2 Live)
Mike Evans came back last Thursday night in a big way after being out since October. He had a 38% first-read target share in his first game back and caught six passes for 132 yards. In a key divisional battle that is a must-win, expect Evans' routes and target share to continue to rise on Sunday. The Panthers deploy a high rate of Cover 3, and Evans feasts vs. Cover 3 defense. I love attacking this line for Evans, and I'll likely ladder Evans up to 100+ receiving yards.
Colston Loveland caught a touchdown pass against the Packers two weeks ago. Now, with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out, he'll be relied upon even more in this matchup. When Odunze and Burden are off the field, Loveland is targeted on 26.5% of his routes. Look for Loveland to be Caleb Williams' redzone target again tonight. I love this price for Loveland to find the endzone again against the Packers.
Dallas Goedert already has nine touchdowns on the season, and I think he adds to it today. The Washington defense gives up the 3rd most touchdowns to the tight end position (9) and is 31st in touchdown rate to tight ends at 9.3%. Look for Goedert to find the endzone again today at a great price.
I believe we will see a Steelers tight end score a touchdown tonight. The Dolphins' defense is a good matchup for tight ends, and they give up a 6.3% touchdown rate to tight ends (24th in the NFL). The problem is that the Steelers use three tight ends. But Pat Freiermuth excels against zone coverage, which the Dolphins run at a high rate. He also has the most redzone targets (8) and most redzone touchdowns (3) and four touchdowns total among the Steelers' tight ends. Maybe I'm feeling confident after a 4-1 day and hitting two plus-money props on my Sportsline picks yesterday. But I like a half unit on Freirmuth ATD at this price.
Coming off his bye week, Jaxson Dart has a dream matchup against Washington's pass defense. The Commanders rank in the bottom third in almost every statistical category of pass defense. The one that stuck out to me the most was Washington's defense has a 6.6% touchdown rate, which is 31st in the NFL. After losing RB Cam Skattebo for the season, who was a touchdown hammer, and not giving Dart as many designed rushes, I love this price for Dart to throw for 2 or more touchdowns on Sunday.
With the loss of Zach Ertz for the season, and Deebo Samuel is questionable for Sunday, Terry McLaurin should get a lot of usage. In his second game back from injury, he ran 71% of the routes last week. With that likely to go up this week, so will his target share given the depleted receiving options, even if Samuel plays. He's a trusted red zone target and he has a great matchup against the Giants' secondary. The Giants give up the seventh most touchdowns to wide receivers. I like this price for McLaurin to find the endzone on Sunday.
Winter after winter, we see Derrick Henry heat up when the weather gets cold. Who would want to tackle that freight train in the freezing cold? We also know the Bengals are a good matchup for opposing running backs. The Bengals give up the most rushing yards to running backs (1,643). Henry exceeded this longest rush line in the matchup two weeks ago on Thanksgiving (28 yards longest rush). I like him to exceed his longest rush prop again against this Bengals run defense.
Against the Ravens, in nine career games, Ja'Marr Chase averages 119.1 receiving yards per game. In the last three matchups against the Ravens, with Joe Burrow as his QB, Chase has long receptions of 43 yards (2025 - two weeks ago), 70 (2024), and 70 (2024). Especially with Tee Higgins out, I like targeting a lot of Chase's props, but I especially like his longest reception. With Joe Burrow last year, he exceeded this longest reception line in 12 of 17 games in 2024. I like him to exceed this line again against the Ravens on Sunday.
I wrote up Mark Andrews' Anytime Touchdown for the Thanksgiving night game. He was open for a score that night, but the ball was tipped. His tight end counterpart, Isaiah Likely, almost scored that night against the Bengals, too, but the ball was fumbled at the goal line and went through the end zone. We know that the Bengals give up the most touchdowns to tight ends by a wide margin. The Bills' tight ends scored two touchdowns last week. I'll bet both Andrews and Likely to score ATD, and if one hits, it will still be profitable.
Last week, I wrote up De'Von Achane's longest rush, and he soared past his line. In fact, he's gone past his longest rush line in six of his last seven games. It only went up one yard from last week's line. Achane faces a depleted Jets' defense that gave up 248 rushing yards last week to the Falcons. Achane surpassed this longest rush line when he faced the Jets earlier this season. I like him to soar past this longest rush line again on Sunday.
It is hard to trust Justin Jefferson because of his quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Jefferson only as two touchdowns on the season because of the poor quarterback play. But if there were ever a week to find the end zone again, it would be against this Washington defense, which gives up a 7.9% touchdown rate to wide receivers. Washington has given up the 5th most touchdowns to wide receivers this season (14). Jefferson still has a high target rate from McCarthy (31%). And now we get Jefferson priced at +155 in a buy-low spot. I like this price for Jefferson to find the end zone on Sunday.
Tyler Warren has had a couple of down games the last couple of weeks, but that has a lot to do with the matchup, and he was playing through an illness last Sunday. This Sunday, Warren has a great matchup against the Jaguars' defense that gives up the 4th most receiving yards to tight ends this season. This line is very attainable for Warren to go over this week, and I'm considering laddering Warren to 70+ receiving yards for plus money.
Brenton Strange has multiple things working in his favor this week. His routes went up last week and he ran 81% of the routs last Sunday. Just like Tyler Warren has a good matchup, so does his counterpart, Strange, on the other side. The Colts' defense gives up the 2nd most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Strange has gone over this line in five of the seven games he's played this season. I like him to soar over this line again on Sunday.