Buried among the busy slate of NFL games on a Sunday is an intriguing inter-conference match-up for all the wrong reasons.

Here we are again with the Chiefs as more than a field goal favorite against one of the AFC's better teams; a story we've seen for multiple weeks now. ...

Frigid temperatures and old school football are in the forecast for Soldier Field on Sunday and that could mean one thing. ...

This handicap is straight forward for me; the Kings are playing some of the lowest event hockey in the league right now and the Mammoth will be asked to break down their defense without leading scorer Logan Cooley. It appears we'll get Darcy Kuemper vs Karel Vejemelka in net meaning I'm closer to the Kings -119 in this spot. Let's hope the offensive onslaught from beating the Blackhawks continues here for the offensively challenged Kings on the road.

We've seen a barrage of dog and over money for tonight's game between the Eagles and Chargers...I don't buy some of it. Justin Herbert will go but he's playing with a padded glove on a surgically repaired hand meaning he'll take the majority, if not all, his snaps from the gun. This may not sound like a big deal but it neutralizes play action from the Chargers attack. Meanwhile on the other side the Chargers love to play 2 high and force their opponents to be methodical...that plays well for a slow start. I know people see the names and want to anticipate points but I'll sell the perception to go under early on MNF.

There's no way to sugarcoat what we've seen from the Vikings offensively the last few weeks; it's been dreadful. However look at the recent schedule of opponents since their bye week: Eagles, @ Chargers, @ Lions, Ravens, Bears, @ Packers, @ Seahawks...there's no cupcake there. Here comes a Commanders team that gets their starting QB back but doesn't offer a defense anywhere close to this list (ok maybe the Bears). I'm buying the Vikings at the bottom of the market given their 1-6 ATS run now that the line has flipped with Jayden Daniels status. Nothing fun about backing JJ McCarthy these days yet every team has its buy point and this is mine for KOC.

I'll simplify the handicap; steady rains throughout the game and they're supposed to intensify throughout the 1st half. These are two teams that have questions in their secondaries that might be minimized given the conditions. Both of these teams are more than capable against the run and given the wettest conditions of the day we'll try to get in and out quickly. If you did have access to a 23 I'd make this a full position

It's rare I'll share a bet that's more speculative than fact but this is a total worth playing now. I'm going to work under the assumption we don't see Lightning starter Andrei Vasilevskiy today after his back-up wasn't present at morning skate. Tampa is getting healthy elsewhere through the lineup and the team is generating chances at a very high level right now. The Isles should be able to generate as well like we saw in their win against the Avs and I expect some high event hockey on the Gulf tonight

Winnipeg has struggled to find consistency this season and it's a job that only gets more difficult without a Vezina winning goaltender to mask deficiencies. Over their last five games the Jets are basically league average in expected goal share but rank 23rd this season. Conversely Buffalo's play can best be described as erratic despite the underwhelming result last time out vs Philly. All things being equal I'm not close to market price here with the Sabres showing value (true number -105/+105). We'll back the dog on the road with an expectation the Jets inability to generate depth scoring continues here.

Isaac TeSlaa was the talk of the combine with his rare combination of speed and athleticism. Through a limited workload this season he's been targeted in the red zone given his unique skill set. However it's a yardage total tonight I just can't buy as oddsmakers are slotting him as the #2 pass catching option for the Lions. On thanksgiving he had an 83.9% route share, 35 receiving yards, a 7.4% target share, and a 12.5% first-read. Let's see how things go but he's a fade candidate for me as a high volume option.

The Jets are a defense first team and the strength of this team starts in the back end. However things get a little more complicated when you lose a Vezina goaltender and are asking depth pieces to pick up the slack. Unfortunately for WPG they don't have the firepower to play track meets so the structure remains the same. Meanwhile for Buffalo they should get Josh Norris back up front which gives them more pop but they've shown better underlying metrics of late on the defensive end. My total on this game is 5.5 O -120 so while we don't have a massive edge at 6 (even) there's still enough to make a bet.

I liked what I saw last week from Cam Ward and the Titans offense against one of the league's best defenses. There was purpose and more importantly a semblance of balance that should pay dividends this week. Jacksonville finds themselves on the road again this week after a hard fought OT win with a game against division leading Indianapolis looming. Look betting the Titans is rarely fun but if they can stop the run and turn the Jags into a 1 dimensional outfit the home dog is very live in Nashville.

Both of these teams limp into the holiday dealing with a rash of injuries. Toronto is expected to be down Matthew Knies and Auston Matthews yet again (just to name a few) meanwhile Columbus is banged up as well with top scorer Kiril Marchenko joining Boone Jenner among those expected to miss time. Zach Werenski is listed as a true game time decision but by the time his status is confirmed this total could be 6 flat. Accounting for those absences and defensive form for Toronto trending up I make this total 6 under -115 meaning 6.5 is no doubt worth a wager.

Look, this season hasn't gone the way that Chubba Hubbard expected dealing with injury and then losing his job to Rico Dowdle. However we're starting to see some tread on Dowdle's tires and there appears to be a path for Hubbard to get back in the mix. Over his last 5 games he's had a rushing floor of 14 yards and being given touches to spell RB1. If that trend continues today I think he's got an excellent chance to get to 20+ so it's worth a small bet in Santa Clara

Don't look now but the Eagles defense has held two good offenses in check the last two weeks limiting the Packers to 10 points and the Lions to just 9. However there's noise in those figures when you consider the game at Lambeau was played in frigid conditions and last Sunday they faced the Lions in gale force winds. In steps a Cowboys offense playing at elite level and they'll challenge not only the Eagles stop unit but an offense that's struggled to find consistency. I know it's not the best of the number but there's still a bet to made here with Dallas at home catching the 3.