The Islanders finish off their So Cal double with a back to back against the Kings. Patrick Roy elected to lean on back-up David Rittich last night and the Isles got goalie'd by the Ducks in a 5-1 loss. LA meanwhile is reeling but the betting market still gives them plenty of respect. Quietly they moved a depth forward earlier today in Warren Foegele not signaling a white flag but interesting for a team fighting to stay alive. I just don't price the Kings the same way as the market so the dog with Ilya Sorokin scheduled to start worth a bet

Short and sweet, speculation Connor McDavid won't be available on Wednesday against Anaheim. The Ducks appear to be close to full speed including the return of top line center Leo Carlsson from injury. Again, not going to over analyze a number where the Ducks close a favorite if 97 can't go so we'll move early on the dog.

Not going to bombard you with word salad in this handicap. Vegas could face a division rival without arguably it's 5 best players in Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin (still celebrating with Team USA) and a trio of top Canadians in Mitch Marner, Shea Theodore, and Mark Stone potentially being rested after missing practice on Tuesday. If all five players are out this line will move one way and it's worth getting ahead of it today with an educated line-up guess.

We already know the Dallas Stars will be without the services of their leading scorer Miko Raantanen for a bit after he suffered an injury for Team Finland. Dallas also announce Centers Rope Hintz & Radek Faksa are game time decisions as well. I'll also make the claim we could see Dallas load manage minutes for their top D-man Miro Heiskanen as well after seven grueling international games. All of that to say the Kraken are a much healthier/rested bunch fighting for every point at this juncture of the season. I show value all the way down to +137 on the Kraken in this spot.

I didn't expect the opportunity to bet Kenneth Walker rushing yards under a total priced in the high 70's but here we are. New England's run defense is damn stout with the return of Milton Williams and I don't expect that to change in two weeks. Kenneth Walker is being asked to take on a bigger workload in the absence of Zach Charbonnet however we saw his effectiveness wane against the Rams as his touches increased, Walker is a dynamic playmaker and he'll be leaned into for sure although it might be more as a receiver than runner vs this Pats defense.

George Holani was activated off IR before the NFC championship and saw himself firmly entrenched as RB2 behind Kenneth Walker. Holani's biggest upside came in passing situations where he ran 14 routes in the game compared to Walker's 15 and served as the primary choice in the 2 minute drill. Holani's pass protection skills are better than Walker's and should give him plenty of 3rd down reps in the game to leak out against the Pats pass defense for a few grabs. This number has run a bit but there's still some upside at current price in the big game

I'm not going to sit here and come at you with a major math model or say there's a huge match-up edge that's going to be exploited in this spot knowing Henderson's pass game usage has been next to non-existent this postseason. Put simply we're buying the dip here as a value bet at this current price. I expect the Pats to get a gamebreaker at least 1 touch in the passing game. Yards has been bet up to a point where it's out of range for me however receptions still offers upside despite a price that might scare some folks away.

This handicap for me is about where Diggs adds value in a game like this; as a chain mover operating at 8-10 yards. His days of being a run after the catch guy aren't there and New England has other threats in Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins that are used to stretch the field vertically. Diggs has value and plays a certain role in a game like this but I don't see it as him catching explosives in the passing game.

You rarely find a massive edge picking a winner in the biggest game of the NFL season and this year is no different. That being said I still think the Pats offer some upside here at 4.5 or better at a reduced price tag so I'll jump into that end of the pool. New England's offense hasn't been great this postseason but they've also faced elite defenses in inclement weather. I believe the coaching experience on the Pats sideline gives their O a path to success today. Defensively I'll also make the case that the Pats stop unit is peaking at the exact right time. Small bet, nothing crazy on the dog in SB60

Heading into the Olympic break we're taking a conservative approach on bet sizing. We're getting to the point of the absurd on this total and I'll take the bait. San Jose hasn't created a ton of chances at 5 on 5 of late regardless of their scorelines. Edmonton hasn't exactly been air tight defensively either but that's also why we have a 7 in play here. My total on the game is 6.64 so under is worth a bet.

Bet sizing plans to be more conservative as we head towards the Olympic break, play accordingly. Buffalo has been white hot; the Sabres have the best record in the league since December 3rd and are firmly in playoff position for the first time in over a decade. That being said the market is starting to catch-up and while I'm generally not bullish on the Kings this price warrants a bet. My fair number for the game is right around -101 so I'll step in front of the runaway freight train known as the Sabres tonight

I'll be short and sweet with my handicap here; the Bruins should be -121 favorites in this spot against a reeling Rangers side. The big question here is the goaltending match-up here and even if we got Korpisalo vs Quick, I show value at the market price of -105 for a bet

I've gone back and forth on this game all week and finally decided to make a small value bet on the dog. I'm much closer to 3 on this game than 4.5 but I won't sugarcoat it; there's a wide range of outcomes. New England has played two very good defenses this postseason and navigated through each test. Now they face a different test on the road albeit against an overrated Broncos D. What pushed me over the edge here is the Broncos OL becoming a significant upgrade for the Pats D compared to what they faced vs LAC and Houston. Small value bet for me at the current price

Buffalo is in the rare and unenviable spot of playing 5 games in 7 days tonight in Nashville. Buffalo's play has also started to trend down after their prolonged winning streak while being priced at a market peak. Preds come into this game with added rest after being blown out by Vegas on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. This number is a substantial discount from where I priced it so we'll make a bigger play than normal given all those details.

Defense will rule the day in Foxboro come Sunday afternoon and we're going to bank on both teams leaning into their stop units in a game of this magnitude. Both head coaches lean into their defensive DNA to run the rock and I think that continues here behind two stout stop units. Houston has been great generating pressure without blitzing and will need to protect against the explosive and Maye's legs. Meanwhile for the Texans it appears the passing attack is going to be down their alpha in Nico Collins which poses a big problem with generating chunk yardage. Lets get a fast moving run heavy 1st half in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon.