Todd's Picks (2 Live)
Heading into the Olympic break we're taking a conservative approach on bet sizing. We're getting to the point of the absurd on this total and I'll take the bait. San Jose hasn't created a ton of chances at 5 on 5 of late regardless of their scorelines. Edmonton hasn't exactly been air tight defensively either but that's also why we have a 7 in play here. My total on the game is 6.64 so under is worth a bet.
Bet sizing plans to be more conservative as we head towards the Olympic break, play accordingly. Buffalo has been white hot; the Sabres have the best record in the league since December 3rd and are firmly in playoff position for the first time in over a decade. That being said the market is starting to catch-up and while I'm generally not bullish on the Kings this price warrants a bet. My fair number for the game is right around -101 so I'll step in front of the runaway freight train known as the Sabres tonight
I'll be short and sweet with my handicap here; the Bruins should be -121 favorites in this spot against a reeling Rangers side. The big question here is the goaltending match-up here and even if we got Korpisalo vs Quick, I show value at the market price of -105 for a bet
I've gone back and forth on this game all week and finally decided to make a small value bet on the dog. I'm much closer to 3 on this game than 4.5 but I won't sugarcoat it; there's a wide range of outcomes. New England has played two very good defenses this postseason and navigated through each test. Now they face a different test on the road albeit against an overrated Broncos D. What pushed me over the edge here is the Broncos OL becoming a significant upgrade for the Pats D compared to what they faced vs LAC and Houston. Small value bet for me at the current price
Buffalo is in the rare and unenviable spot of playing 5 games in 7 days tonight in Nashville. Buffalo's play has also started to trend down after their prolonged winning streak while being priced at a market peak. Preds come into this game with added rest after being blown out by Vegas on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. This number is a substantial discount from where I priced it so we'll make a bigger play than normal given all those details.
Defense will rule the day in Foxboro come Sunday afternoon and we're going to bank on both teams leaning into their stop units in a game of this magnitude. Both head coaches lean into their defensive DNA to run the rock and I think that continues here behind two stout stop units. Houston has been great generating pressure without blitzing and will need to protect against the explosive and Maye's legs. Meanwhile for the Texans it appears the passing attack is going to be down their alpha in Nico Collins which poses a big problem with generating chunk yardage. Lets get a fast moving run heavy 1st half in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon.
RJ Harvey can be a bell cow back but will he be one today? I'm not so sure that Harvey gets all the touches running the football knowing how dynamic he can be as a receiver as well. Sean Payton loves to get creative when he has extra time to prepare and all of us should fully expect a few wrinkles in the Broncos plan of attack today
Buffalo is playing good hockey right now and has played themselves into a wild card position. We see this as fans and the odds market also sees it and prices them accordingly. When you're in this business long enough it's knowing when to hold/fold a stock and that's where I'm at with Buffalo right now. They're reaching peak market pricing and in my opinion the Flyers are being undervalued. Philadelphia could get Jamie Drysdale and Bobby Brink which only helps the cause and we get the preferred goalie in Dan Vladar. Let's back the better defensive team at a juicy road price where I make the pup close to the +110 range here.
Tampa heads to Pittsburgh for the 2nd of a back to back with a rarity; starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy gets the nod after Johanssen started vs the Flyers. The Lightning also lost one of their top scorers Brayden Point on Monday to a knee injury that could sideline him a while. On the other side the Penguins have found their defensive footing registering the best expected goals against across all situations over their last five games. I'm going to expect defense to dominate and a total to only move one way before puck drop.
Columbus elected to part ways with bench boss Dean Evason in favor of veteran HC Rick Bowness to spark this team. Bowness is known for a defense first mentality at his previous stops and I don't anticipate that to change here even if it takes time. Calgary meanwhile has gone through a power outage of late finding it hard to generate chances consistently. This total is just a touch too high for me so anything at even money or better keeps the under in range.
Patriots run defense was outstanding to start the season; it wasn't great as the year progressed. I won't sugar coat the angle here that has as much to do with Omarion Hampton being limited as it does Vidal's upside. This price is short for a guy who could emerge in the game as RB1 so we'll get ahead of it
Give me the Chargers + the points here as I think they win this game outright. Los Angeles has been plagued all season long by an offensive line that looks more like a turnstile than anything else but fortunately for them the Patriots don't offer a Texans or Seahawks style pass rush. New England for me is an average coverage unit past Christian Gonzalez meaning Herbert should have opportunities to spread it around the yard. Defensively Jesse Minter needs to limit the explosives from the Pats attack and I think he can do that against a playoff debutante in Drake Maye. LA has been synonymous with playoff failures in the past; that all changes on SNF.
Both of these offenses are more than capable but will they find big plays today? I don't see it with major OL concerns on each side as Lane Johnson is officially inactive for the Eagles and Trent Williams potentially compromised in his return to action. The Eagles defense grades out as a top 3 stop unit for me and they'll challenge SF at every turn. Meanwhile the 49ers stop unit is extremely banged up but matches up against a run first Eagles attack. It's not the best of the number by any stretch however it's still worth a partial position for us today.