Massive line for an NFL game with a legitimate starting quarterback on the other side, but this simply speaks to the huge differential between these teams. The Texans have been absolutely dominant defensively, clicking at the right time with the playoffs approaching. The Raiders have imploded, losing eight straight games, including four of the last five by 14+ points. Will Las Vegas even score 10 points on Sunday? With Kolton Miller still out, its offensive line may not even provide Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty with that opportunity. Look for Houston to roll.

Arguably the best bounce-back team in the NFL, the Lions may not be playing up to expectation, but they will nevertheless be the more talented and composed team on the field Sunday. Not only are the Steelers missing multiple key players, they have gotten a bit fat playing against struggling quarterbacks the last two weeks. Detroit is being dinged due to recent losses, but all of those have come against tough defenses. The Lions remain a beastly when playing at home – even after a couple hiccups – and while this is undoubtedly a large spread, it’s still worth playing. Look at Detroit as a tremendous teaser leg, too.

Beyond the Broncos being undefeated at home and the elevation being difficult, Denver's defensive front should be all over Trevor Lawrence on Sunday. This will be his toughest test of the season right when Jacksonville is feeling itself the most. Whereas the Jaguars have mostly beaten up bad teams, the Broncos can win games in a variety of ways behind Bo Nix. The added hook is tough to stomach as Denver has played so many mind-boggling close games this year, but this should be a TD game by the time the final whistle sounds. Wait until kickoff and take this at -3.

The Falcons have frustrated all season, but with Drake London back and Kyle Pitts actually getting the ball from Kirk Cousins, their offense is too formidable to overlook against a team that refuses to try and control the clock. That means more opportunities for Atlanta, which will look to hand Arizona a third straight double-digit loss. The Cardinals have dropped six straight and 11 of the last 12, and they are on a 1-5 ATS run. Lock in the Falcons under a full field goal and ride it.

Beyond playing two terrible defenses, it does seem like the light is at least flickering for J.J. McCarthy, who despite low yardage totals, has 5 TD and 1 INT over the last two games. The Giants’ struggles against the run should allow the Vikings to run high-percentage plays and reduce turnover potential. This is more of a play on Minnesota’s defense, though, which should make life rough for Jaxson Dart all game. Brian Flores will be going at him early and often. New York is not going to be able to score enough points on the ground to cover a meager spread like this.

Figured the Cowboys would be getting points here considering the Chargers just beat both of last year’s Super Bowl teams consecutively. Dallas being favored here should tell you all you need to know as its offense is the best unit in this game. Los Angeles has been winning without generating many yards or points, and while it will have an easier time doing both Sunday, going score for score with Dak Prescott & Co. indoors is a tough task. Those hard-fought victories should pile up for the Chargers, whereas the Cowboys have the weapons to take advantage of a defense that is more beatable than it looks -- whether in the first or second half.

The actual pick here is Bills -10 (-110) at these same odds, and it would be worth buying to -115 if necessary. Willing the roll with the hook as there’s a huge chance the Bills completely blow out the Browns on Sunday. Cleveland has lost two of Shedeur Sanders’ three starts by 18+, and its defense can only do so much – even at home. Buffalo has won three straight, it's used to playing outdoors in the cold, and while it’s been up and down all season, it generally dominates bad teams with six double-digit wins already this year. The Bills can still claim the No. 2 seed if they win out, and they will not be letting up over four quarters.

This line tells us that Micah Parsons and home-field advantage, combined, are worth 8.5 points. Nothing else has changed since these teams met two weeks ago in a 7-point win by Green Bay. That game included Chicago running 16 more plays and possessing the ball 7 additional minutes. This pick could not be made until Josh Jacobs and (more importantly) Christian Watson, who combined for 3 TD in the first meeting, were listed as active. Advanced metrics have the Packers above the Bears in nearly every category, and while this will certainly be closer on the scoreboard than the first meeting, it should still be the visitors on top in the end.

This is a huge step up in competition for both teams compared to their Week 15 opponents, but while the Eagles have Super Bowl aspirations and a chance to clinch the NFC East, the Commanders are simply trying to get through the season without further injury. The question is which team is more likely to replicate last week’s performance: Philadelphia against Washington’s horrid defense or the hosts against the visitors’ top-tier unit? Just don’t see how Marcus Mariota – even with Terry McLaurin playing – has enough to topple the Eagles, which should be able to stick to their ground game and win soundly.

Ole Miss would have been the play either way, but with the line sliding under three scores, now is the time to pounce. Beyond the Rebels winning this meeting by 35 points a few months ago, they are intrinsically motivated to flex after being ditched by Lane Kiffin. That will be enough to soar in one game; it’s tough to see Ole Miss advancing past this stage. Still, while Tulane has improved as the season progressed with its transfer-heavy roster coming together, the talent and big-game experience differentials will be too much to overcome – especially on the road, even without Kiffin on the sidelines.

SEC vs. ACC. Team tested all season by top opponents and played in tough road environments vs. team that largely was not tested. One of the best defensive coaches in college football (Mike Elko) vs. Carson Beck and Mario Cristobal. Home teams are 4-1 in CFP first-round games with Alabama’s win over Oklahoma being the lone, predictable exception. Even beyond the Aggies’ defensive advantages (strong secondary, capable pass rush), they are undefeated at home this season, and the early kickoff makes that advantage even more significant. This spread is now less than half where it opened, and at under a full field goal, there is plenty of value on Texas A&M.

Home teams went 4-0 in Year 1 of the 12-team field, but the talent differential in those games was much greater than it will be when Alabama and Oklahoma battle. The Crimson Tide’s embarrassing loss in the SEC Championship Game, coupled with the Sooners’ two-point win at Bama last month, should have this line higher, which is telling in terms of the belief in the visitors. Teams “disrespected” like the Tide often use that as significant motivation in rematches, and Bama certainly has a lot to prove given the way it finished the season. The Tide outgained the Sooners by nearly 200 yards in that first game, and in college football, it is exceedingly tough to beat the same team twice in one season.

Even without Davante Adams in the lineup, the Rams are the side here. The Seahawks have won four straight at home but not been as dominant in Seattle as they were in the past. Whle this was a two-point loss on the road last month, Los Angeles has actually been tested since. The Seahawks continue to concern when up against tougher competition, and nearly losing to Philip Rivers last week reminded about their inconsistent offense. Adams being out hurts, but Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have experience overcoming such adversity, and they can nearly lock up the No. 1 seed and NFC West with a victory on Thursday night.

The Cowboys have won three of their last four games with the only loss coming to an offensively superior Lions squad. That is not how one would describe the Vikings, which scored six points across their prior two games before eviscerating a porous Commanders team last week. Minnesota does have a ferocious defense, and Dallas will need to work through that. The Cowboys play much better at home, particularly on offense, and it’s tough to imagine J.J. McCarthy dueling with Dak Prescott, even with the Vikings having their own tremendous wideouts. This line has come down 1.5 points from its peak.