This has come down substantially to the point that we are getting some legitimate value at the Eagles, which have reached their lowest point. Not having Lane Johnson is an issue, but Philly's had an additional week to work on its run game. Let's not forget: Joe Alt is out for the Chargers, and Justin Herbert is playing with a cast on his non-throwing hand. While LA has a bunch of weapons, it's going to have trouble protecting Herbert against a ferocious defensive front. What happens if he lands poorly on that injured arm? This might be a last gasp, but the Eagles are the play here.

The Chiefs have been through it this season, and now, Sunday night stands as a potential AFC West elimination game should they lose. Kansas City’s defense is normally much more successful at home, and Houston enters as winners of four straight – all units it has been able to overpower. The Texans defense is immense, but they are playing their second straight on the road, this one outdoors, in the cold in front of a tremendous crowd. With three OL out, the Chiefs will be forced to run and work their quick passing game, which is generally where they thrive. This just feels like a backs-against-the-wall Andy Reid special.

The Rams will need a much better defensive effort than they gave last week in that disaster of a loss to the Panthers, but it’s tough to see how the Cardinals can legitimately compete against a team that has the weaponry to put together a dominant performance. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for Los Angeles, whereas Arizona is basically packing it in for the season. The hosts are too one-dimensional offensively, and their once-vaunted secondary has been leaking over the last few weeks. This sets up similarly to the 49ers and Seahawks games; those teams beat the Cardinals by about 20 points each.

The Broncos have truly struggled to win by margin this season, and the offense is not going to be good enough to take them far in the playoffs. However, the Raiders appear to have checked out this year, and they are going to get frustrated quick against the Denver defense. While this game was tight a few weeks ago – and Denver hasn’t won by margin since Oct. 26 – Las Vegas has lost its last three by an average of 16 points. None of those teams were as tough defensively as the Broncos, which still need to win games to lock up the AFC West. These teams have a point differential of 195 this season, 16+ points per game.

Try as I might, I cannot skip the Bengals in this spot. While Josh Allen has won 13 straight 1 p.m. kickoffs, it matters not who wins – just that Cincinnati covers. Buffalo has serious issues on defense, even if it is a tier or two higher than the visitors. The Bengals bring explosive playmakers at both levels: Chase Brown should thrive in a snow game against the Bills' weak run defense, and Tee Higgins is back alongside Ja’Marr Chase helping Joe Burrow, who is 3-0 this season and has never (!) lost a road game in December. Make sure to get this at +6 (or +6.5 closer to kickoff), not +5.5, but you may want to consider a moneyline sprinkle on Cincinnati around +230.

The line flipped here with Jayden Daniels returning for the Commanders, and that’s OK. They’re the better offense with Terry McLaurin in the lineup, and Daniels can extend plays with his legs. This is the healthiest Washington has been on that side of the ball in a while. Minnesota’s defense is the best unit in the game by far, but its talented offense is hampered by QB play. The Commies are 10-ply defensively compared to the Seahawks and Packers, which held the Vikings to 6 total points in their last two games, but considering Minnesota doesn’t run the ball enough to establish possessions, it may not matter. On a margin call, I’ll take the better QB even in a tough road environment.

Late play here with the Ravens in a game featuring two struggling offensive teams that have talented quarterbacks and coaches but remain up against it late in the season. Lamar Jackson's struggles led to my best play of the season last week, but Baltimore is not going to turn the ball over five times again. Derrick Henry should have a big day, and the Ravens will be able to stop the run and flex their might at home. Have a feeling this spread is so large for a reason.

It’s been difficult this season to believe in any teams, but the Seahawks are making that a bit easier. Despite an awful blown cover to the Titans two weeks ago, they have covered 9 of 11 games, their only failures against offenses that could match them. This is a long trip for Seattle, but Atlanta is depleted as a team with little motivation in this game. The Seahawks are getting healthier, and this line has come down a full point from open when it was not playable at -7.5. Defense travels, and Seattle may well eat Kirk Cousins alive.

There's no shade on the Hoosiers coming from this side. Indiana beat Oregon on the road in rather decisive fashion and wrecked lesser opponents all season. That's precisely the problem, though. IU has not truly been tested, and in games when it faced adversity -- Iowa and Penn State -- it only pulled off marginal wins. Ohio State has only allowed two (two!) opponents to score more than two touchdowns in a game. It is 11-1 ATS with the lone failure being a 24-point victory (-29.5). No doubt Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers raring to go, but against this Buckeyes defense, for a team that has not played a ranked opponent in two months, it is a believe-it-when-I-see-it situation.

There’s a few reasons to back Alabama. None have to do with Kirby Smart’s history against Bama nor the regular-season meeting, a 3-point road win by the Crimson Tide. Georgia has improved markedly through 2025, but its ability to pressure the quarterback and defend in the secondary are legitimate issues. Even if the Dawgs dominate on the ground, the Tide have the ability to strike quickly, particularly if behind late. The SEC Championship Game is a do-or-die scenario for Bama, which must win to play in the College Football Playoff. Georgia's bid is locked; it’s worst case is hosting a first-round game against a low seed instead of a bye. Take the Tide straight up; SECCG has not been decided by one point since 1997.

The most important Thursday Night Football game of 2025 arrives with an elimination backdrop. Dallas enters having won and covered three straight, while Detroit has lost two of three and only covered once since November. If you have followed me, picking the Lions at home – at any number – has been an automatic play. No longer. The hosts have failed to cover three straight at home – in large part due to failures on fourth down and an injured offensive line. The Cowboys have won close games over the Chiefs and Eagles, though both have come in Dallas. However, they are riding momentum and clearly playing better entering TNF. With the hook added, Dallas is the play with a serious sprinkle straight up.

Pulling a Costanza by going against my natural instinct and siding with the Giants – not only because of the Jaxson Dart return but rather how injured the Patriots are up front on both sides. New England has benefitted from among the easiest schedules in the NFL, while New York has been up against a gauntlet and largely fought in those games. The Giants are obviously better with Dart behind center, and his ability to extend plays with his legs should keep the Pats defense off balance. In what should be a slower game, points may be at a premium, and I’ll happily take 7.5 of them. Give me chicken salad on rye, untoasted, with a side of potato salad and a cup of tea.

Both teams enter this game off a bye, and the return of Patrick Surtain Jr. for the Broncos basically negates Terry McLaurin being inserted back into the Commanders lineup. Washington did play better defensively against Miami two weeks ago, but it is down multiple defensive starters in a game that should largely be contested on the ground given Bo Nix’s inconsistency and Jayden Daniels’ continued absence. Denver has not won its games by margin this season, but Washington has lost four of the last five by 21+ points. In fact, six of its eight losses this season have come by more than a touchdown. The Broncos defense will be the best unit on the field, and it should thrive over 60 minutes.

There’s no telling what the Steelers or Aaron Rodgers are going to put on the field in any given week, but it is clear that the Bills are thin in protection of Josh Allen and capable of being picked apart defensively. Mike Tomlin is 23-8-3 ATS as a home underdog, and Pittsburgh must realize by now that its best chance of winning games is to run the ball early and often, which would allow it to control the clock at home. Buffalo will be without at least five starters on offense, including two linemen, which gives the Steelers a huge opportunity to dominate the edge with pressure. The hook would have been nice, but at least we’re still getting the field goal.

The Chargers were embarrassed by the Jaguars before their bye week, which must have truly stung. Back at home, John Harbaugh should have Los Angeles motivated for a supreme bounce-back effort against a Las Vegas team that has changed offensive coordinators but not personnel. The Raiders struggle to run despite having Ashton Jeanty in the backfield, and Geno Smith is going to have problems against this secondary. Justin Herbert should be able to get the ball out quickly against a weak middle of the Raiders defense, which would negate Maxx Crosby’s pass rush. LA won this matchup by 11 on the road in Week 2 and should be more dominant here even with Joe Alt sidelined.