SEC vs. ACC. Team tested all season by top opponents and played in tough road environments vs. team that largely was not tested. One of the best defensive coaches in college football (Mike Elko) vs. Carson Beck and Mario Cristobal. Home teams are 4-1 in CFP first-round games with Alabama’s win over Oklahoma being the lone, predictable exception. Even beyond the Aggies’ defensive advantages (strong secondary, capable pass rush), they are undefeated at home this season, and the early kickoff makes that advantage even more significant. This spread is now less than half where it opened, and at under a full field goal, there is plenty of value on Texas A&M.

Home teams went 4-0 in Year 1 of the 12-team field, but the talent differential in those games was much greater than it will be when Alabama and Oklahoma battle. The Crimson Tide’s embarrassing loss in the SEC Championship Game, coupled with the Sooners’ two-point win at Bama last month, should have this line higher, which is telling in terms of the belief in the visitors. Teams “disrespected” like the Tide often use that as significant motivation in rematches, and Bama certainly has a lot to prove given the way it finished the season. The Tide outgained the Sooners by nearly 200 yards in that first game, and in college football, it is exceedingly tough to beat the same team twice in one season.

Even without Davante Adams in the lineup, the Rams are the side here. The Seahawks have won four straight at home but not been as dominant in Seattle as they were in the past. Whle this was a two-point loss on the road last month, Los Angeles has actually been tested since. The Seahawks continue to concern when up against tougher competition, and nearly losing to Philip Rivers last week reminded about their inconsistent offense. Adams being out hurts, but Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have experience overcoming such adversity, and they can nearly lock up the No. 1 seed and NFC West with a victory on Thursday night.

The Cowboys have won three of their last four games with the only loss coming to an offensively superior Lions squad. That is not how one would describe the Vikings, which scored six points across their prior two games before eviscerating a porous Commanders team last week. Minnesota does have a ferocious defense, and Dallas will need to work through that. The Cowboys play much better at home, particularly on offense, and it’s tough to imagine J.J. McCarthy dueling with Dak Prescott, even with the Vikings having their own tremendous wideouts. This line has come down 1.5 points from its peak.

It has been 1,800+ days since Philip Rivers played. He’s 44. Rivers is a fun story, but what is going to happen when he gets hit by one of the NFL's most ferocious defenses? It doesn’t matter how tough he is; he’s been sitting on the couch, not active and preparing. Perhaps if Rivers had been through a training camp, a case could be made, but he’s had one week of practice. Jonathan Taylor may break a run. Indianapolis may step up defensively. Seattle should win this going away. Its defense has allowed nine combined points in two games with four wins of 14+ over the last six weeks. The Colts haven’t beaten a winning team since Oct. 19. Plus, Sauce Gardner is still out.

Don’t look now, but the 49ers might be rounding into form. They have allowed a combined 17 points to their last two opponents, and now, they’re coming out of a late bye with the Titans having surprised last week. Christian McCaffrey playing might tick this line up to -13 once statuses are announced, which we want to avoid. San Francisco’s last five wins have come by double digits, and Tennessee’s defense is not going to be able to make too many stops in this one.

Surprisingly large line for a team in the Lions with their backs against the wall against a Rams side that has gotten fat by destroying lesser opponents and played tight games against better teams. Detroit being down three safeties is a major concern, especially because Los Angeles may be the best team in the NFL, standing as a deserving Super Bowl favorite. However, the only quality team the Rams have beaten by margin recently was the short-handed 49ers. The Lions have their full complement of offensive weapons and should be good for a backdoor cover at worst. Moneyline sprinkle on Detroit, too.

Interesting line considering the Broncos have won 10 straight games and are playing at home, but it makes sense as Denver remains wholly unimpressive week to week. Still, winning is winning, and the Packers have done that, too, with four straight victories aided by a much healthier offense than it had most of the season. The Broncos have blown consecutive covers in excruciating fashion (I would know), while the Packers are 2-0-1 ATS over their last three. Green Bay’s ceiling is much higher, and it should finally scrape it on Sunday afternoon, especially if Denver continues committing penalties.

For some reason that’s tough to understand, the Broncos cannot handle the Raiders, but they blew a double-digit lead last week that the Eagles are not likely to give up in a similar situation. Las Vegas has lost seven games by more than 12 points already this season and should do so again here. Philadelphia is in hell right now, but this is a major drop in class with Vegas standing as the Eagles’ easiest opponent since an 18-point win over the Giants on Oct. 26. This is the definition of a get-right spot. The Raiders can barely move the ball, and Saquon Barkley should be able to dominate. Don’t see how the visitors score much at all.

Seeing this line a few months ago would have been wild, but the Patriots have proven doubters wrong at every turn on their significant win streak. The problem is that New England has gone through the weakest schedule in the league, and while it has improved massively, it is not as goo as the record suggests. Buffalo could not stop turning the ball over in the first meeting, yet lost by a field goal. The Bills have taken significant steps the last month, despite their lacking defense. They should be able to run the ball Sunday in the cold, and Allen is going to be a significant test for this secondary.

Look … at this point … we’re going down with the ship. The Chiefs have a significant cold-weather advantage in this spot, and while the Chargers picked up a huge win over the Eagles last week, that was far more about Philadelphia’s failures than anything else. Kansas City looked ready to beat Houston until a late back-breaking turnover, and the most dominant team in the AFC over the last few seasons now has no margin for error remaining. It has felt for weeks like the Chiefs were on the verge of overcoming their issues. This game actually sets up perfectly for them to do exactly that … as long as they can catch the damn ball.

The Texans are being bet up after a 10-point win over the Chiefs, but this is less about Houston’s run of success and more about Arizona. It appears as if the Cardinals have been fighting all season with close losses, but that’s been against poor teams. They have lost by double digits to the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks -- all since the start of November and all games in which they were healthier than they are Sunday. Teams do not necessarily need to have a letdown after a big win. Perhaps the Texans’ offense does not deserve a spread this large, but its defense (which has more interceptions than passing TDs allowed) does. Turnovers will create short fields and more scoring opportunities.

Plenty was made about Joe Burrow’s comments, some believing he wants to leave the Bengals. The way it came across to me? He’s sick of losing and imploring both his team to play better and Cincinnati to make some serious changes. The Ravens are struggling to get pressure, which means Burrow should have plenty of time to pick them apart. Chase Brown can run well enough to keep Baltimore honest, and the visitors have not proven to be capable with this limited version of Lamar Jackson. The Bengals have covered three straight, and if the Dolphins win Monday, they are live to win their division. Tee Higgins being out hurts, but Burrow can get it done with Ja’Marr Chase and whoever else. Moneyline sprinkle, too.