Alex's Picks (6 Live)
After a dominant 2024 campaign topped off by an Eagles Super Bowl, Saquon Barkley has not been the same back this season. While his offensive line has been injured, he’s also not running nearly as effectively and his efficiency metrics has fallen off a cliff. He’ll face a Chargers rush defense that has been excellent and since Week 9 rank third in EPA allowed per rush. Saquon simply isn’t the same RB and this is a very tough matchup.
We’re already fading Saquon on the ground, however considering the low total and additional factors, I believe there is a strong likelihood A.J. Brown struggled here as well. Brown has come alive the last two games but is those were both very good matchups, which will not be the case against a Chargers defense that has surrendered the fewest yards to opposing WRs. Additionally the Chargers play a lot of zone coverage which Brown has been less effective against. Lane Johnson is also missing on the Eagles offensive line which is a huge loss as the Eagles have sputtered without him.
Chris Godwin has spent the bulk of the season on Injured Reserve however returned to the Bucs lineup last week and looked good, while immediately filling in as the Bucs WR1. Godwin has long has great chemistry with Baker Mayfield and we’re getting a hefty discount on this line. I expect his route participation to climb and this number ultimately feels much closer to his floor than ceiling.
Going to continue to fade Daniel Jones in what is another very difficult matchup on the road. We successfully faded Jones last week against an elite Texans defense and Jones faces another difficult test this week against Jacksonville. The Jags have quietly been playing great defense, particularly recently, and since Week 10 rank 3rd in Defensive EPA, 5th in EPA allowed per dropback, and 6th in Success Rate. Meanwhile Jones is operating at less than 100% and while he’s still been fairly effective, we’re seeing the wheels fall off a bit.
I don’t often bet totals but this is a rare one that I like. We have a divisional clash with massive playoff implications between the 1st place Colts and a surging Jacksonville team. Both of these teams have improved defensively as the season as progressed and are playing great defense recently. I view both offenses as overrated and I ultimately think this is likely to be a low scoring defensive struggle.
Willing to bet against Jake Ferguson getting a 6th reception despite this being a massive total in a game that projects to feature a ton of passing volume. 6 receptions is a tall order for any player, and especially in what would be considered a difficult opponent. The Lions have been good against Tight Ends this season and I’m willing to pay a steep price here.
Rudy Gobert, once a model of consistency, has been inconsistent in his 13th season. Gobert gets a soft matchup, however the Timberwolves are significant favorites which provides additional blowout opportunities. This number ultimately feels high for Gobert at this stage of his career.
Deni Avdija has been sensational for the Trailblazers and is very likely to make his first All-Star appearance. While the 6th year veteran seemingly gets better every game, this is a tall order for Avdija who has failed to eclipse this line in 15/20 games. Even in a paced up environment, this number is closer to Avdijas ceiling.
Daniel Jones faces a very difficult matchup in a divisional clash versus an elite Texans defense that pairs a ferocious pass rush with an excellent coverage unit. Jones is playing with a fractured fibula and has started to struggle after getting off to an absolutely incredible start to the season where he ranked first in nearly every QB efficiency metric. Jones has come back down to earth the last few weeks and operating at less than 100% in what is a very difficult matchup, this is a very natural spot to fade the former Blue Devil.