This looks like a soft matchup at first glance, however the Titans rush defense has been much more formidable with Jonathon Simmons healthy and in the lineup. Christian McCaffrey has struggled on the ground this season and his rushing efficiency leaves a lot to be desired.

I was extremely bullish on RJ Harvey after the Broncos selected him in the 2nd round. While Harvey hasn’t hit the ground running, he has begun to flash and is coming off his strongest rushing performance last week against the Raiders posting an exceptional 71% success rate. Harvey also posted a 50%+ carry share for the third straight week with season-high marks in snap share and route participation, he looks to be finally building trust with Sean Payton. Now he faces a Packers defense that is the leagues second biggest run funnel in a game that projects to be competitive.

Another rookie RB I’ve been extremely bullish on is TreVeyon Henderson who has taken over as the lead back on what has been a dynamic Patriots offense. Henderson struggled early in the season from an efficiency standpoint but has been much better in recent weeks and has displayed impressive burst and big play ability. He will now face a soft Bills run defense that profiles as the leagues biggest run funnel. Rhamondre Stevenson is likely to get some work here too but I think there is more than enough meat on the bone for Henderson even in a split backfield.

Hunter Henry has been a very reliable target for Drake Maye this season. With that being said, this is a fairly large number for Henry in what I consider a difficult matchup. The Bills defense hasn’t performed well and has some major holes, however they cover the middle of field and opposing Tight Ends very well. Buffalo has surrendered the second fewest yards to the position.

At first glance this is a difficult matchup for Patrick Mahomes and Rashee Rice against a strong Chargers defense that has been excellent in coverage. However the Chargers rely heavily on zone coverage playing at the second highest rate in the league this season. This bodes extremely well for Rashee Rice who has been downright dominant against zone with a 32% Target Per Route Run rate paired with a 3.24 Yards Per Route Run, both elite marks. We’re getting a sizable discount here as well and I expect Rice to continue to be the clear engine of a Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid offense. Sign me up!

Jacoby Brissett has been a garbage time super star and if one were to look his raw passing yards, it would be fair to assume he will once again cruise over this fairly low yardage line. However, garbage time production is fragile, and very difficult to count on as the likelihood increases that Brissett will put up a dud, rather than continue to benefit from circumstances. This week he faces an excellent Texans coverage unit paired with an elite pass rush. Moreover the game has a low total and the Texans don’t typically blow their opponents out. While Brissett has greatly benefitted from garbage time, I think there’s a strong chance this is where the bottom falls out.

After a dominant 2024 campaign topped off by an Eagles Super Bowl, Saquon Barkley has not been the same back this season. While his offensive line has been injured, he’s also not running nearly as effectively and his efficiency metrics has fallen off a cliff. He’ll face a Chargers rush defense that has been excellent and since Week 9 rank third in EPA allowed per rush. Saquon simply isn’t the same RB and this is a very tough matchup.

We’re already fading Saquon on the ground, however considering the low total and additional factors, I believe there is a strong likelihood A.J. Brown struggled here as well. Brown has come alive the last two games but is those were both very good matchups, which will not be the case against a Chargers defense that has surrendered the fewest yards to opposing WRs. Additionally the Chargers play a lot of zone coverage which Brown has been less effective against. Lane Johnson is also missing on the Eagles offensive line which is a huge loss as the Eagles have sputtered without him.

Chris Godwin has spent the bulk of the season on Injured Reserve however returned to the Bucs lineup last week and looked good, while immediately filling in as the Bucs WR1. Godwin has long has great chemistry with Baker Mayfield and we’re getting a hefty discount on this line. I expect his route participation to climb and this number ultimately feels much closer to his floor than ceiling.

Going to continue to fade Daniel Jones in what is another very difficult matchup on the road. We successfully faded Jones last week against an elite Texans defense and Jones faces another difficult test this week against Jacksonville. The Jags have quietly been playing great defense, particularly recently, and since Week 10 rank 3rd in Defensive EPA, 5th in EPA allowed per dropback, and 6th in Success Rate. Meanwhile Jones is operating at less than 100% and while he’s still been fairly effective, we’re seeing the wheels fall off a bit.

I don’t often bet totals but this is a rare one that I like. We have a divisional clash with massive playoff implications between the 1st place Colts and a surging Jacksonville team. Both of these teams have improved defensively as the season as progressed and are playing great defense recently. I view both offenses as overrated and I ultimately think this is likely to be a low scoring defensive struggle.

Willing to bet against Jake Ferguson getting a 6th reception despite this being a massive total in a game that projects to feature a ton of passing volume. 6 receptions is a tall order for any player, and especially in what would be considered a difficult opponent. The Lions have been good against Tight Ends this season and I’m willing to pay a steep price here.

Rudy Gobert, once a model of consistency, has been inconsistent in his 13th season. Gobert gets a soft matchup, however the Timberwolves are significant favorites which provides additional blowout opportunities. This number ultimately feels high for Gobert at this stage of his career.

Deni Avdija has been sensational for the Trailblazers and is very likely to make his first All-Star appearance. While the 6th year veteran seemingly gets better every game, this is a tall order for Avdija who has failed to eclipse this line in 15/20 games. Even in a paced up environment, this number is closer to Avdijas ceiling.

Daniel Jones faces a very difficult matchup in a divisional clash versus an elite Texans defense that pairs a ferocious pass rush with an excellent coverage unit. Jones is playing with a fractured fibula and has started to struggle after getting off to an absolutely incredible start to the season where he ranked first in nearly every QB efficiency metric. Jones has come back down to earth the last few weeks and operating at less than 100% in what is a very difficult matchup, this is a very natural spot to fade the former Blue Devil.