So far this season Cousins has had weak velocity on his throws, hasn't challenged downfield much and has been very sensitive to pass rush pressure. Cousins averaged a weak 5.6 yards per pass attempt versus Miami, and that was actually sort of good for him. To go over this line at that average he would need to throw 37 passes. I doubt that happens, especially since the Falcons will likely dial up a lot of runs with their RBs. And here's a wacky stat: The Saints have "held" three of the past four QBs they've faced to 172 or fewer yards because opponents have run on them and/or found other ways to score.

I don't doubt that the Raiders will give Ashton Jeanty a lot of opportunities, but I do doubt how effective he'll be. Left tackle Kolton Miller is still sidelined, he was the Raiders BEST-graded run blocker. Guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, graded out as his second-best run-blocking lineman, is now on IR. Jeanty's averaged 3.8 yards per rush this season but in his past four games against some impressive run defenses, that number's been 3.2. And here comes the Cowboys' better defense: All-Pro Quinnen Williams helps the DL so much, and DeMarvion Overshown and Logan Wilson help the LBs. It's going to make their defense a lot better. Tack on a bad game script and this figures to be a long night for Jeanty.

Sam Darnold's been over this line just three times this year, all in high-scoring games (46+ points). This one has a total of 48.5 points, a good sign. Seattle's run game has been a mess and should continue to be given the matchup, which means Darnold will have to throw to keep up in a competitive game. The Rams pass rush has taken a step back over its past two games: one combined vs. the Saints and 49ers with a combined 29.7% pass rush pressure rate. I could see L.A. turning that up a little more this week, but I can also see Darnold work on getting the ball out quickly and often. Seven of the Rams past nine opponents threw 32-plus times.

This number went up but I still like it here. Aaron Jones has settled in as the Vikings' lead RB and should continue to be that this week. The return of center Ryan Kelly would help, but even without Kelly, Jones has averaged over 5.0 yards per rush in each of his past two games back from injury. When Chicago's played without linebacker T.J. Edwards they've allowed 5.8 yards per carry to RBs. With Edwards it's been 4.0 yards per rush. He's that important to Chicago's run defense. Nine RBs this season have had at least 57 rush yards on the Bears, Edwards there or not there. Only two offenses - Cincinnati and New Orleans -- failed to produce a 55-yard rusher.

This is simply a case of a great player in a great situation. Achane's been awesome. The Commanders have allowed 5.6 yards per carry to RBs over their past five games with an 11.6% explosive rush rate allowed. They've been equally awful in other metrics like DVOA, EPA and rush success rate because of a slow-moving linebacker group that's struggled much of the year.

This is a tough matchup for Love against an Eagles pass defense that's been good this year and may be much better with the addition of Jaelan Phillips plus Nolan Smith coming back. All season long, Jordan Love's Achilles heel has been pass rush pressure. He has yet to throw a touchdown under pressure, has completed just 37.7% of his throws when pressured, has a catchable attempt rate of 68.8% when pressured and averages a weak 4.7 yards per attempt when pressured. Tack on losing Tucker Kraft and maybe some chilly weather in Green Bay on Monday night and it's a setup for a disappointing game from Love.

Short-yardage specialist Zach Charbonnet has been pretty inefficient all year. But he's better in gap-scheme runs than zone-scheme. That's not a good fit for him this week -- Arizona has let up 4.2 yards per attempt and a 7.4% explosive rush rate on zone runs versus 3.6 yards per carry and a 4.2% explosive rate on gap scheme. This proved to especially true in Week 4 when the Seahawks gashed the Cardinals with zone runs; Charbonnet had 39 yards on 12 carries. Kenneth Walker has been the better zone-scheme runner since forever in Seattle and he already came out of the bye playing more snaps than Charbonnet last week, a change for Seattle.

I don't see the Bucs running the ball effectively here for two reasons. One, the Patriots in their past five have held RBs to 3.0 yards per rush with no touchdowns and a stunningly low 1.4% explosive rush rate. Two, the Buca can't run the ball with their backs averaging 3.3 ypc in their past four. It'll mean Mayfield has to throw more, and I expect him to lean on everyone in the passing game. He usually saves his low-attempt games for blowout wins. Shop around on this -- I've seen over 34.5 at even money.

After last week's loss at Pittsburgh, Colts coach Shane Steichen expressed remorse in how he prepped his O-line and lamented not being more balanced on offense. His chance at redemption comes this week against a Falcons pass rush ranked first in blitz rate but has had issues stopping the run. A combination of Jonathan Taylor runs and quick throws from Daniel Jones would work here -- dink-and-dunk throws from Jones aren't anything new, and he could easily follow the footsteps of Tua Tagovailoa from two weeks ago against Atlanta. Tagovailoa had a great game but just 205 yards. I expect a low volume pass game for Jones without a lot of deep shots.

On the year Seattle has allowed 3.1 yards per carry to running backs, a shade lower if you don't include garbage time. Chubb doesn't play in garbage time -- he's hardly playing a lot at all. We've seen Chubb's snap rate drop over the past two games whilst Woody Marks has stepped up, down to a meek 41.1% in their last game against the Ravens excluding garbage time. It's entirely possible that the Texans move even further away from Chubb in their first game after their bye week, especially in an unfavorable road matchup.

I doubt that the Texans will be able to run the ball much here -- Seattle's letting up just 3.1 yards per rush to RBs. That should mean Houston will have to throw more often, something they haven't had to do much of in favorable game scripts in Weeks 4 and 5. And this number is curiously high -- Stroud's been over it ONCE all year, but EVERY QB against the Hawks has thrown at least 33 passes against them. I know Seattle's secondary is getting healthy, but that will impact the effectiveness of Stroud's throws, not his volume.

For the record, Barkley has posted under 71 yards in all but one game this year, which makes this line a little funny to me. What hasn't been funny is the lack of work Barkley's had in the Eagles past two games: 18 total carries. That's coaching malpractice. I expect the Eagles to get back to running the ball with Barkley, especially with Landon Dickerson expected back and the O-line at full strength. This Vikings defense allowed Kenneth Gainwell to look like a superstar three weeks ago, then wasn't challenged much by the Browns two weeks ago. On the year they've let up 4.4 yards per run but 4.6 in their past four games.

This number has steamed considerably but it was initially high because the books knew people would take it. Honestly, they'd get action on it at 95.5, the matchup is that good. Four straight lead RBs versus Miami have averaged at least 5.7 yards per rush. The Dolphins run defense that couldn't stop Kimani Vidal last week, a new low even for them. This is a winnable game for Cleveland, and they somehow opted to not run Judkins much last week (12 carries), allowing him to have less wear and tear on his body entering this matchup. Bank on 100+ yards from Judkins.

I thought Godwin looked good last week, actually showing some quickness late in the game and precise route running throughout. He was also surprisingly versatile, lining up everywhere and attacking further downfield than I would have anticipated. I suspect the Bucs will struggle to run the ball because of the matchup (not having Bucky Irving is bad news too), so Godwin offers an easy option for Mayfield. Lastly, the dude had just 26 yards last week, so why is this line so high??? It's because the oddsmakers want saps to take the under. They know what I know, and now you know too. Go over.

I don't love betting odds this heavy, so please shop around for the best line on this. But Odunze's been wonderful this year and the Bears have leaned on him: at least nine targets and six receptions in each of two games this year. I don't see a game script that puts Chicago with a big lead and a lot of handoffs, so expect to see Caleb Williams throw a lot. And I don't see a Cowboys pass defense that can slow any WRs down -- just look at the Giants this week. Odunze should be good for five grabs ... if not eight.