Dave's Picks (2 Live)
Will Walker be the lead back? Yes. Will he be the only back? I doubt it. In two years as head coach, Mike Macdonald's Seahawks have played three games where one running back has had 20-plus carries. Plus, the game script for Walker to receive that much work totally depends on whether or not the Rams put points up, which is something they've done against the Seahawks twice already, especially in Week 16. I would imagine Sean McVay has made it a point to focus on Walker, thus limiting his efficiency and in turn forcing the Seahawks to go in another direction on offense. The oddsmakers know that the public will be on the overs for Walker, and they've accounted for it with big lines.
It was telling last week that Denver ignored its run game against Buffalo's favorable run defense. You might think it would be nonsense for them to do it again, especially with Jarrett Stidham starting, but I think the ship has sailed on Harvey's opportunities this season. And even if it's not, Harvey will face a really tough run defense in the Pats. In their past three games with Milton Williams back and linebacker Robert Spillane healthy they've let up -- no joke -- 1.8 yards per rush, no touchdowns and zero explosive runs. Zero! Harvey himself hasn't been efficient -- 3.4 yards per rush in four of his past five -- and JK Dobbins could be back.
For starters, this is a tough matchup -- Denver is send in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed (6.1), fifth in yards after catch per reception allowed, 10th in EPA per dropback and they've been this good despite seeing the sixth-most pass attempts per game. They're tested and are very good. Given the potential shortcomings of Denver's offense with Jarrett Stidham under center, as well as their run defense declining over their past four meaningful games (4.5 yards per carry, 9.8% explosive rush rate allowed), this should be a spot where the Patriots run the ball effectively and not force Maye to throw it into the teeth of this secondary.
In the two games Xavier Hutchinson ran the most routes in, Weeks 6 and 17, Nico Collins was out. And in both games he saw six-plus targets and caught five balls for at least 69 yards in each. As long as Collins is out, I fully expect Hutchinson to reprise his role as the Texans primary perimeter receiver. It'll mean he'll see some of Christian Gonzalez in coverage, but I'd be shocked if the Patriots dedicated serious resources to Hutchinson. Tack on concerns I have about Houston being able to run the ball, and I'd take advantage of these lines before the steam up. I would not play over 3.5 receptions whatsoever, and I would hesitate to go any higher than 34.5 yards.
In the two games Xavier Hutchinson ran the most routes in, Weeks 6 and 17, Nico Collins was out. And in both games he saw six-plus targets and caught five balls for at least 69 yards in each. As long as Collins is out, I fully expect Hutchinson to reprise his role as the Texans primary perimeter receiver. It'll mean he'll see some of Christian Gonzalez in coverage, but I'd be shocked if the Patriots dedicated serious resources to Hutchinson. Tack on concerns I have about Houston being able to run the ball, and I'd take advantage of these lines before the steam up. I would not play over 3.5 receptions whatsoever, and I would hesitate to go any higher than 34.5 yards.
The 49ers run defense has added some experience but still should struggle to stop hard-charging runs like Charbonnet tends to make. I think Seattle leans into their fresh-legged running backs to control the game clock and pound San Francisco. Along with being a good downhill back, Charbonnet is their clear closer, landing notable edges both in terms of playing time and carries over Kenneth Walker in the fourth quarter of games they've both played in, especially when the Seahawks have a lead, which I expect to be the case on Saturday. Charbonnet has 12-plus attempts in nine games including both against the 49ers this year. Seattle's won 8 of those 9 games. I'd be OK playing this up to 12.5.
Already over this line in four of his past five, Harvey is the assumed catalyst of the Broncos run game. He'll go up against a Bills run defense that's allowed 6.0 yards per rush to RBs in its past four EXCLUDING Week 18. TreVeyon Henderson and both Jaguars RBs did well against them, and while I'm not sure Harvey will run wild, I definitely think he'll get his opportunities in what should be a low-scoring game. Giving up too soon on the run is the mistake the Jaguars made last week, and the lesson Sean Payton will learn not only from the Bills' win a week ago but in his loss at Buffalo in the playoffs last year when he called just 11 RB runs.
Aaron Rodgers has taken total control over the Steelers offense, that much is obvious over the last three weeks when he's attempted at least 39 passes in each game! This week he'll get challenged by a Texans defense that's great everywhere, including against the run. That should force the Steelers to abandon the run. And because the Texans pass rush is so strong even when they don't blitz, Rodgers will have to get the ball out quickly, which he's done all season. In the eight games the Steelers have had 19 or fewer RB runs, Rodgers has had 34-plus attempts in five games, and that includes a game Rodgers got hurt in, so it's more like five of seven.
After resting last week, Saquon Barkley should be ready for a big workload. Getting back right tackle Lane Johnson should help too. On the year the 49ers have allowed 4.5 yards per rush, but that number ticked up to 4.6 without stud linebacker Fred Warner, and it has went haywire -- 5.2 without Warner AND impressive young backer Tatum Bethune. Neither of those guys will play. More importantly, the Niners have allowed a 9.6% explosive rush rate in their past four games, mostly with Bethune on the field, meaning they've given up a big run about once every 10 carries. I'd expect the Eagles to lean on Barkley as part of their game plan, which should mean a lot of rushing yards for him.
Hurts has thrown 30-plus times in seven games this year, with five being Philly losses including two blowout losses. That means in nine of the Eagles 11 wins, Hurts had not gone over this line. A lot of QBs have thrown a lot of passes against the Niners -- 11 to be exact, but eight of them came in 49ers wins. Last thing: Hurts has played in nine career playoff games. He's thrown 28 or fewer passes in six of them, all Eagles wins. If you think the Eagles will win, and if you think Saquon Barkley will have himself a nice game to take pressure off of Hurts, then this bet makes a lot of sense.
Allen grabbed at his foot after trying to avoid a sack and then really struggled in the second half (6 of 12 passing for 44 yards) last week. Here come the Eagles, who have allowed the lowest completion rate, the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, and the seventh-lowest yards per game on the season. They've been even better than that over the last four weeks. Their pass rush will only get stronger with Jalen Carter set to return. And if the weather's bad, that adds a whole other wrinkle: Current forecasts imply some rain but moderate wind with gusts as strong as 25 miles per hour.
Quinn Ewers wasn't a total disaster in his first NFL start, and with another week of practice with Waddle should have fewer miscommunications with him like in Week 16. Even with miscommunications and off-target throws, Waddle had 72 yards, over the prop that I went against last week. Miami hosts Tampa Bay and its zone-heavy defense, which is terrific for Waddle as he averages 15.4 yards per catch versus zone (14.4 last week with Ewers) compared to 8.5 versus man-to-man. There's no doubt that Waddle will remain Ewers' primary option in the pass game, and the Bucs have allowed 60-plus receiving yards to wide receivers 14 times this year including at least one in 10 of its past 11 games.
Quarterbacks haven't needed to throw a lot against the Browns all year -- just two have passed 31-plus times including one in the past 10 games. Rodgers has been above this line in eight games, but all eight were either Steelers losses or close high-scoring wins. The game script for this week screams a slow-paced, run-heavy approach from the Steelers, particularly in a game they're favored to win on the road. There's also the possibility that the Steelers rest Rodgers for part of the game in the even the Ravens lose to the Packers the day before. Ultimately it feels like a light lift is coming for Rodgers.