This is only Memphis’ second true road game of the season. The Tigers were competitive against Purdue and just upset Baylor. Despite their SU record, Memphis is 7-1 ATS. The Tigers have an experienced team and while they’ve had their struggles offensively, they’re still a deep team with 12 players averaging 10 minutes, or more. Penny Hardaway is not a coach that you want to be laying points with, but getting them is a different story as Hardaway is 35-19 ATS as an underdog in his time at Memphis. The Tigers should be able to hand around in the first half with Louisville pulling away in the second half, but Tigers can stay within the number.
Iowa State is coming off their big win over the Boilermakers on the road. Their offense has averaged 94.6 points per game and it’s hard to replicate that performance in back‑to‑back games, especially in a rivalry game. Iowa will attempt to slow down the game, defend the perimeter, and have longer possessions. The Cyclones have won and covered three of the last four meetings, but this isn’t a Fran McCaffrey Iowa team, who played very little defense. Ben McCollum’s Hawkeyes have a bigger emphasis on defense and should make the necessary adjustments after their blowout loss to Michigan State in their first true road game.
NC State has failed to cover five of its last six games. This Flames team has more experience than NC State and can go toe-to-toe with them offensively. They’re currently 5th in the nation from beyond the arc, an area the Wolfpack struggle to defend. NC State does have a size and tempo advantage, but their offense can go stagnant at times. This is the Flames first true road game, but they have played two neutral games against two above average mid-major defenses. Liberty has the continuity and shot-making ability take advantage of a vulnerable NC State defense.
Clemson is a deep team, 10 players averaging over 10 minutes per game and eight players averaging over seven points. The Tigers were able to fight their way back and take the lead against Alabama, so they style of play from the Cougars won’t be new. Clemson plays at a slower pace, don’t turn the ball over, and one of the better overall rebounding teams in the country. The Cougars lean heavily on their top three scores, especially from the perimeter, and Clemson has enough bodies to defend the arc as they’re holding opponents to under 28%. The Tigers matchup well with their frisky defense and they have more experience and cohesive team. Since 2020, Brad Brownell is 24-13 ATS as an underdog.
Daniel Jones is still dealing with a fractured fibula and is 4-11–1 ATS against above average defenses playing outdoors. Indianapolis’ offense has been less productive due to Jones’ injury. The Colts are also 2-9 on ATS last 11 in series. They’ve also not won in Jacksonville since 2014. The Jaguars are playing with momentum, winning three straight, and have a defense holding their opponents to less than 15 points per game at home.
Semi-home game for the Sun Devils as this game is in Phoenix. Despite their 6-2 SU record, Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS on the season. They struggled to defend the perimeter and the Sun Devils are top 50 in the country from three. Arizona State’s offense has scored 83 points, or more, in three of their last four led by Maurice Odom.
Colorado has won four of the last five games against the Rams. However, the public is all over Colorado, it’s their first true road game, and Fort Collins is not an easy place to play. The Rams currently lead the nation in effective field goal efficiency and from three. Colorado has not done well defending the perimeter, allowing their opponent to shoot almost 36%, and the Rams are shooting 45% so far. They’re also in the top-10 in effectiveness from the free throw line. Colorado State has the experience as they’re more consistent with their offensively with their ball movement against the Buffaloes who have shown vulnerability defensively.
This line continues to move in Alabama favor and says a similar feel to last night’s UNT/Tulane game. The Crimson Tide have dominated this series, winners of 10 of the last 11 meetings. Gunner Stockton is in better form than Ty Simpson currently and the three running backs in the backfield for the Bulldogs have been finding success of late. Alabama lost to the Sooners and were outplayed by Auburn despite getting that victory. The Crimson Tide also really struggled on third down against Auburn, 4/17, which can’t happen against this Bulldogs defense. Georgia and Kirby Smart have progressed as the season went on and are out for revenge.
Bowling Green has led with their defense to begin the season. They’ve held their opponents to 65.8 points per game and are currently 8th in the country in forcing turnovers. The Wolverines are near the bottom of the country in protecting the ball as well as shooting from the free throw line. Bowling Green has the edge on the boards, especially with keeping their opponents off the offensive glass and they defend the perimeter better. Utah Valley has yet to win a game on the road and the Falcons have been a nice surprise in the MAC thus far.
Texas Tech beat the Cougars by 12 points last month, their only loss on the year. Teams in the Big 12 title game, who are playing with revenge are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS since 2018. Despite the final score and a few big plays, BYU’s defense kept the Red Raiders running game in check. They’ve been one the nations red zone defenses where Texas Tech has been inconsistent at times throughout the season. If Cougars can limit the explosive plays, they should hang around.
The line continues to move in Tulane’s favor. Their defense that has struggled against the pass, allowing 274.8 yards allowed per game. North Texas has had one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country. They can score in bunches even if a couple drives end up with no points. The Green Wave secondary has been vulnerable all year.
Cincinnati has leaned on defense to start the season. They’re holding opponents to just 63.4 points per game, but their offense has been inconsistent, so far, similar to the last few seasons. The Musketeers had a rocky start to the season but might have found something with the adjustments made by first-year head coach Richard Pitino. Xavier is going to shoot a ton of threes and do a better job in protecting the ball. They’re also 5-1 SU at home on the year. This is also the Bearcats first true road game of the season and have’t beaten Xavier in the Cintas Center since 2001.
Seton Hall is fresh off a solid three days in Maui. They return to their smaller campus gym to play, probably, the best in the NEC conference. The Blue Devils are 3-1 ATS on the road with two being an outright victories at Rutgers and Boston College. The Pirates have one of the top defenses in the country and, in Maui, their offense came alive, averaging 80 points over three games. Despite a top defense, Seton Hall struggles to defend the perimeter, where the Blue Devils excel, shooting 35.1%. Central Connecticut State’s defense is decent as they showed in their two big road victories and have the coach to keep this one competitive.
Pitt is off a big win over the Buckeyes at home. Despite that win, the Panthers have lost three of their last five games. Texas A&M has the offensive edge, scoring more than 105 points per game in their last three games while making over 81% from the free throw line. The Panthers defense has allowed 75 points, or more, over three of their last four. Texas A&M is the more physical team down-low and the Panthers will attempt to dictate the pace at home but the could have a difficult time slowing them down and keeping up.
Jaxson Dart is back for the Giants. New York has blown five games this season when leading by 10, or more, points in the fourth quarter, most in NFL history. Three of New England’s last four games have been decided within a touchdown. Despite their 2-10 SU record and being winless on the road, Dart gives the Giants a better chance to stay within the number here. New York’s interim DC, Charlie Bullen, is all about aggressiveness and will look to take advantage of a Patriots offensive line dealing with key injuries.