Micah's Picks (5 Live)
Micah's Past Picks
Indiana State went 30-6 and 20-14 against the spread and 9-4 at home and they're a little light on what the spread should be. I give Indiana State home court at least five points here, about two points above what they're making it now. The thing about Indiana State is they're super accurate making their shots at 50.3%. They're number three in the nation. And the home crowd is crazy. The Sycamore's home crowd is the reason they win. Indiana State covers.
Texas A&M finished the season strong but the teams they beat aren't exactly the toughest in the NCAA. The Aggies beat Mississippi State, Georgia, Ole Miss twice and Nebraska in the NCAA Tournament. They went 6-1 ATS in their last seven but 17-18 ATS on the season. They lost 14 games. Houston has the No. 1 defense, allowing 37.8% shooting and the Cougars also had the top scoring defense, allowing 56 ppg. They lost only four games all season. Houston to cover.
The only thing you should know about this matchup is that Clemson lost three of its last five games. The three teams the Tigers lost to were some of the worst in the ACC: Boston College, Wake Forest and Notre Dame. Are they ready for this big of a matchup? The team Clemson beat in the tournament was New Mexico. Baylor shoots 48.6% from the field, which is 20th in the NCAA and the Bears shoot 39.4% from 3-point range, which is seventh. Baylor scores 80.9 per game, which is far greater than Clemson. This is an offensive mismatch. Baylor went 19-11-3 ATS. Baylor to cover.
The Tar Heels have home-court advantage only two-plus hours from campus in Chapel Hill. That advantage isn't built into the number and deserves to be about 1.5 to 2 points. So a 3.5-point spread sounds pretty good; it's cheap. Carolina is 28-7; Michigan State is 20-14. The Heels have covered six of the last seven meetings against the Spartans. North Carolina is 35-2 in NCAA Tournament games in the state of North Carolina and 13-1 in Charlotte. This is a No. 1 seed versus a No. 8. North Carolina covers.
This game is set up perfectly for Arizona. The Wildcats are 26-8 overall and 21-11-2 against-the-spread. They haven't covered much lately. They're the No. 19 shooting team in the nation (48.7%) and the No. 3 scoring team (87.9 points per game). I think we see them break through with a blowout win. It's time. Arizona has the size it will need to overpower Dayton on both ends of the court. Arizona covers.
The kings of Phoenix hoops is Grand Canyon, not Arizona State. The Antelopes have gone to the tournament every year under coach Bryce Drew. They're looking for their first win. Saint Mary's went 9-1 in its last 10 games, culminating with beating Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament championship game. The Gaels went 26-7 overall and 18-13 against-the-spread. Grand Canyon went 17-14 ATS and 29-4 overall, including 16-0 at home. Many of those Grand Canyon students will be traveling for this game. Both teams play smothering defense. I took the points with Grand Canyon.
Utah State is led by first-year coach Danny Sprinkle, who coached Montana State to two NCAA Tournament appearances, and a couple of his transfers from Montana State. The Aggies started this season fast and finished 27-6. And this might be Sprinkle's swan song at Utah State as he has been rumored as a candidate at Washington. The Aggies shoot 49.3%, which is eighth in the nation, and guard the three-pointer well (28.6%), which ranks third. Utah State has all the making of a Sweet 16 team. Aggies cover.
So nice to see Fred Hoiberg's Nebraska squad get into the tournament and I think they might get a win. This is a team that played great defense all season with 39% shooting allowed to opponents and they face a team in Texas A&M who shoots only 39% from the field. Nebraska shoots 45% from the field. The thing that I like most about Nebraska is they cover the spread. They went 23-10 straight up and 21-12 against the spread. I think they cover here and get the win.
Florida Atlantic comes in with all five starters from last year's team that went to the Final Four and is ready for a challenge again this year. Florida Atlantic shoots 48% from the field and averages 82 points per game. Northwestern's lost three of its last four games. The price is cheap here, and I expect Florida Atlantic to go far in the region. They're built for the tournament, and we don't see that in today's college basketball. Florida Atlantic to cover.
NC State had an amazing run in the ACC Tournament to get into this field. The Wolfpack lost four straight to close out the regular season, but then won five straight to win the ACC Tournament, closing out with the win against North Carolina, who became a No. 1 seed. Will NC State stay hot? Likely yes, the Wolfpack will stay hot with the success recipe they found. They shot 55% against UNC, who shot 37% in the championship game. I’m willing to bet on NC State plus the points to find out if it's a fluke.