A battle between top-3 offenses tonight...

Coach Jerrod Calhoun has his Utah State squad with a 7-0 start. Guard Mason Falslev turned down big NIL money to return to Utah State, along with four other Aggies from last year, and a couple of key transfers to provide the positive vibes all around. They feel good about themselves. For one, they're shooting 53.4% from the field, which is the fourth-best number in the nation. They also shoot 39.5% from three-point range. They have a defense that only allows 39% shooting. That's the combination I highlight: over 50, under 40. Utah State should probably be closer to a five-point favorite in this game over South Florida, which has struggled with shooting during its 4-4 start. Utah State to win.

Coach Ben McCollum parlayed his success at Drake last year into taking the job at Iowa, and he's producing as the Hawkeyes are 7-0 while being underrated the whole way, covering the spread in six of the games. The team is shooting 53.1% from the field, good enough for eighth in the nation. But this will be their first test tonight at Michigan State. They'll be an underdog for the first time this year. They've had an easy schedule to start, with their stiffest competition being Mississippi, which they were favored by 4. Michigan State is also 7-0, except they beat three ranked teams: Arkansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina. Their defense only allows 38% shooting, and part of the reason I'm betting Michigan State.

We get to learn a lot more about California Baptist from the WAC at Boulder tonight when they face the Buffaloes, with both teams at 7-0 on the year. Colorado beat Washington in their last game and beat Providence earlier in the year, and they returned 33% of their scoring from last year. California Baptist beat San Diego, Irvine, and Oregon State, and they return all five starters from last year's team, along with two reserves. This team is intact, and the continued continuity is worth betting on today. Colorado shoots 51.6% from the field, but they don't play any defense. Colorado scores 90 points per game, while Cal Baptist allows only 63. I'm on Cal Baptist plus the points.

Jaxson Dart is starting at quarterback for the Giants, and that means he's going to go run for over 54 yards because he's done it in five of his seven games. He might say that he's going to play cool and stay in concussion protocol, but once the game starts, he's not going to be able to change the way he plays. He knows the Giants are successful when he takes things into his own hands. Now they've only won two games with him playing, but he showed he's got the moxie that it's going to take to bring success to the Giants. Dart over 26 rushing yards.

Washington has the second-worst defense in the NFL, allowing 387 yards per game, and they also have the 29th-ranked pass defense, allowing 249.5 yards per game. During the Broncos' eight-game winning streak, Bo Nix has gone over 240 yds five times. Now, against a defense that has holes in it, Nix should do it again with a smaller target of 223. Washington allows an NFL-worst 6.6 yards per play. Bo Nix over 223 yards passing.

Western Michigan from the MAC is 3-4 on the season, and they play at Valparaiso from the Missouri Valley, which is 4-2 this season, but they were predicted to finish last in the conference. Valparaiso came in with 11 brand-new players, and so far, they've proven very green, hitting only 37.3% from the field. That means 356 teams in the country shoot better than Valparaiso. They score 67 points a game and allow 70. This is a game I think will be a grind that Western Michigan can win, but I’m taking the points.

There hasn't been any Ohio State team that's been 11-0, covering nine of the games with one loss and one push. It’s amazing that a team can have the highest rating in college football, and it's still not high enough because Ohio State keeps covering every inflated number that is thrown their way. They haven't beaten Michigan the last 4 years for whatever reason Ryan Day is trying to figure out, but this team will excel at Michigan regardless of Day. The No. 1 defense in college football that allows only 206 yards and 7.6 points a game. This is a special Ohio State squad, maybe the best I've ever seen out of Ohio State, that also covers the spread in just about every game.

The Bears haven't beaten the Eagles in the last six meetings, and they meet today with identical records at 8-3, with each covering seven games. The Bears are on a run of winning eight of their last nine, while the Eagles have lost three of their last seven amid the AJ Brown turmoil. The Bears have the No. 6 offense in the NFL, averaging 369 yards per game, with the No. 2 running game averaging 142 per game. The Eagles have the 24th-ranked offense, averaging just 303 a game. What I like most about the Bears is that they don't turn the ball over. They lead the NFL with a plus-16 turnover margin, forcing 24 turnovers. I think the Bears play well and cover.

Michigan State beat North Carolina last November 94-91 in overtime as a 5-point underdog with the game going over the total of 158. This year, both teams are 6-0, with North Carolina scoring big wins over Kansas and St Bonaventure, and Michigan State beating Arkansas and Kentucky. North Carolina has one returning starter, and Michigan State has two returning starters and two key rotation players. But the one thing I respect most this early in the season is having a coach who gets an edge with the referees, and that's Tom Izzo. You watch a couple of times in this game when he complains to the ref, he gets a call right away. The coach matters when the kids don't know how to win yet.

My first instinct when I saw this Kansas City-Dallas game I thought was the Cowboys and the over. The Chiefs are not a good road team, having lost their last three to Jacksonville, Denver, and Buffalo. The Chiefs have to be the best 6-5 team in the history of football, or at least in the imagination of respected oddsmakers all over the world. I think the Cowboys end the Chiefs fantasy with the win. The Cowboys have won and covered their last two games. Their Eagles comeback win was electric; now they get to do it again. Prove who you are, Dallas. The Cowboys have the No. 1 offense in the NFL, getting 387 yards per game. Cowboys win.

UC Irvine shoots 49.9% from the field and allows only 36.1% shooting, and yet they're only 3-3 on the season without covering a single game. What's wrong with this team? Those are outstanding metrics that usually lead to wins. In their last two games, they lost to Northern Iowa by one and Utah Valley by 7, not to mention losing to California Baptist early in the season. New Mexico State is 4-0 this year with the big win over New Mexico 10 days ago. The Aggies are the play in the Cancun Challenge.

Bryce Young comes off a career best performance in an overtime win at Atlanta while Brock Purdy made a triumphant return after missing six games with turf toe and looked almost perfect in his win at Arizona. The 49ers are barely in the playoff mix at 7-4 while the Panthers are sniffing a berth at 6-5. The Panthers have won their last three road games which includes a 16-13 win at Green Bay. The Panthers are getting more confident every week as Bryce Young matures and they're going to make that strong bid for the playoffs. Panthers cover at San Francisco.

I made George Mason a 9.5 to 10 point favorite, and the line came out 7.5 and quickly dropped to 6.5, making it a must-play for me today. George Mason is 5-0 in Tony Skinn’s third season as coach, and they've got a nice mix of seniors with young guys. They got one returning starter from last year's 27-win team. Ohio is 1-4 with their last loss coming as a 7-point favorite against Bethune-Cookman. The George Mason defense is holding opponents to 37% shooting. This game is being played at a neutral site, the Daytona Ocean Center. George Mason to cover.

The Los Angeles Rams have won their last five ball games, covering the first four, and they're facing former Rams teammate Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, who have lost their last two games. They lost a competitive game at Buffalo and to the Patriots, beat the Saints, and then lost at Detroit. Their last four games haven't been their best. The Rams have been so effective this year because Matthew Stafford is playing the best quarterback of his entire career, with 27 touchdowns against just two interceptions in his 10 games this season. Rams to cover.