Micah's Picks (3 Live)
I expect a fast pace between High Point and Arkansas in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament in Portland. High Point comes in as a 12 seed, and they've got a 15-game winning streak. They were relentless against Wisconsin. They wouldn't die; they just kept coming back. High Point shot only 42% from the field against Wisconsin, but they only made six turnovers. High Point has gone over in its last two games and 21 times on the season, while Arkansas has gone over 20 times. Arkansas won the SEC tournament and beat Hawaii 97 78 in the First Round, which went over. I made this total 178, and it opened 168.5. Just the over.
It's a second round of the NIT Tournament with Liberty traveling to Reno to face Nevada who is a 7.5-half point favorite. I'm looking at the total sitting at 146.5 because I set the total to 157, and the send-out was 147.5. Nevada went over 21 games this season, and Liberty was 18-12 to be over. Liberty was ranked 4th nationally in field goal percentage at 51.3%, and 3rd nationally in 3-point shooting at 39.7%. Liberty averages 78 points a game, and I think they're going to give Nevada all they can handle. Over is the play.
The Hawks had their 11-game winning streak broken last night in a 117-95 loss at Houston. The Warriors play the fifth game of a six-game road trip after losing in Detroit last night, 115-101. The Warriors have lost seven of their last eight games. They have a whole roster on the injured list, including Jimmy Butler, Steph Curry, Al Horford, and about 10 more guys. What's going on with Steve Kerr? All his players are hurt? He can't seem to win without Steph Curry. Golden State has gone 6-14 since Steph Curry was injured on January 30th. The Warriors have the 10th seed in the West, while the Hawks are a half-game from taking over the sixth seed in the East. Hawks to cover.
Texas and Gonzaga hook up in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament in Portland, and I think the Zags put the clamps on the Longhorns. I made the total 136, and it came 147.5, making it an automatic play on the under. It's contrasting styles with Texas averaging 83 points per game, but Gonzaga allows only 65 points per game. All season long, Gonzaga has been dictating pace, sending 23 of its 34 games under the total. Gonzaga shoots 50.7 from the field and allows 39.4% shooting. Gonzaga controls the pace, and this game stays under.
Texas A&M faces Houston in the Second Round of the NCAA tournament in Oklahoma City. This total has risen to a high of 143.5, and I think it's time to bet the under now. Houston has gone under 21 games this year, including six of their last nine games. It's go time for Houston, and that means even more intense defense. Houston allowed only 39.7% shooting, and they allow only 62.4 points per game. Texas A&M has gone under their last two games. Just the under.
Saint Louis and Michigan play the early game in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament in Buffalo. It's the top two defenses in the nation, and both shoot over 50% from the field. I think this is a spot where Michigan is playing below the high standards that they set for themselves at the beginning of the year, and Saint Louis regained their confidence in the First Round. Michigan hasn't looked the same since LJ Cason went out with a knee injury at the end of February. They look flat. Michigan hasn't covered in its last six games. I think Saint Louis pulls off the upset.
There's a great under the total opportunity between California Baptist and Kansas in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament from San Diego. The Lancers play a stingy perimeter defense, holding teams to 27.9% 3-point shooting. They're one of the top under teams in the nation, staying under 21 of their 33 games. Kansas likes to play defense and slow the game down even more, and has gone under 22 times in 33 games while holding opponents to 38.8% shooting. This a lot of points (138.5) to give in these two. Just the under.
Central Florida and UCLA hook up in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament in Philadelphia. UCLA's problem this year was not playing well away from Pauley Pavilion, but they took a major step forward in the Big Ten Tournament, beating Michigan State and playing well against Purdue despite the loss. They covered all three of their tournament games and seven of their last eight. They're playing their best basketball right now, while Central Florida has lost four of their last five games. UCLA to cover.
We've got a live underdog here with Akron +7.5 against Texas Tech in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament from Tampa. I think Akron can ride some of that MAC momentum after watching Miami-Ohio win its first game. The Zips won the MAC tourney, not Miami, which had a 31-0 regular season. Texas Tech comes off a one-and-done performance in the Big 12 tournament with a loss to Iowa State, which makes it three straight losses for the Red Raiders. Akron has won 19 of its past 20 games and is making its third straight NCAA Tournament appearance. They shot 50.3% from the field this season and hit 37.9% of their 3-point shots, while scoring 88.4 points per game. Akron gets the cover.
I got a feeling that Houston is going to make an immediate statement in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament against Idaho by showcasing Kelvin Sampson’s suffocating defense. They allowed 40% shooting, higher than past seasons, but it's still ranked 22nd nationally. What they did was allow the fewest number of made field goals in the nation at 20.9 per game, and they only allowed 62.9 points per game, which ranked third. I think this is Houston's year to win the championship, and it all starts with a good run against Idaho in this game. This defense comes at you fast and creates mistakes with an aggressive approach. Sampson gets favor of many officials to accept their bully-hustle ball against opposing offenses. Under.
Saint Louis has stumbled a bit, losing four of its last eight games, covering only twice. They face Georgia on Thursday in the NCAA Tournament in an 8 vs 9 seed matchup. Saint Louis has to remind themselves that they shot 50.9% from the field as well as 40.1% from 3-point range, which ranks second nationally. They also have to boost their confidence by reminding themselves that they are the No. 1 defense in the nation, holding opponents of 37.9% shooting. They’re an unselfish team with seven players scoring above 7.2 points per game. They need to get back to being who they were in January. That team is a killer inside that needs to show itself. Saint Louis to win.
BYU has lost five of the last nine games, but they've covered their last four as they're set to play Texas in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament at Portland. Both teams went over more than under on the season, with Texas having 19 overs and BYU 18. Texas has lost five of its last seven games, but when they play a team that wants to go fast, they match pace. The Longhorns shot 48.3% from the field and scored 83.3 points a game. BYU's average score this year was 83.9-75. I think this will be a close game with both teams scoring 80 points. Just the over.